Front Burner - War grinds on in Ukraine. Is peace possible?

Episode Date: June 18, 2024

On the weekend, more than 90 countries held a conference in Switzerland billed as a “peace summit” for Ukraine.But Russia was not in attendance. The summit failed to reach a consensus on a final statement. And the way forward on a peace process remains totally unclear, with Russia and Ukraine drawing intersecting red lines on territory and security.So after over two years of war, what do Ukrainians feel like the path is to ending it?How are they coping with mounting losses and strains on resources?And what would they – and Russia – be willing to sacrifice to finally reach peace?CBC’s Briar Stewart brings us the view from the northeastern city of Kharkiv, where Russia began a new offensive last month.For transcripts of this series, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. This weekend, over 90 countries, including Canada, held what they billed as a peace summit for Ukraine. It took place, however, with this gaping absence. Russia, its biggest ally China, didn't show up either. And although the summit

produced a final statement which said that any peace agreement has to preserve Ukraine's territory, a number of countries like India and Mexico refused to support it. The way forward on a peace process remains pretty unclear. And that has me wondering, after two years of war, what do Ukrainians feel like the path out of this could be? How are they coping with the mounting losses and the attrition of constant battle? And what would they and Russia be willing to sacrifice to reach a deal? My colleague Briar Stewart is getting a firsthand look at where Ukrainians are right now in Kharkiv, where Russia began a new offensive just last month. Breyer, hey, thanks so much for coming on.

Hello. So since you're in Kharkiv, which is in the northeast of Ukraine and is the second largest city, I'm wondering if you could give me a sense of what these over two years of war have done to it. How much of ordinary daily life remains? Well, this is a city that still has a substantial population, Jamie. There's more than a million people living here right now. That includes tens of thousands of children. And when you drive around this kind of sprawling industrial community, on the surface, it really does look like life carries on.

I mean, even though right now there are error rate alerts for several hours a day. You still see people out on buses, on trams, out doing their grocery shopping. But then you notice the other things. Like we were driving around today in the city. We probably passed a dozen parks. And at times today, it was a beautiful sunny day. And there wasn't any children in any of them. And that really kind of stuck out to me because we know that this is a city that has come under, you know, increasing attacks in the month of May. And we have heard just that people are more fearful. People are spending time in their basement. In fact, there are some that are so terrified about the threats of missiles and bombs that they turn up every night at metro

stations. They're allowed to come in at 10 p.m. They inflate their mattresses and they sleep there because they are so worried. And I mentioned those attacks in May, there were 76 aerial attacks. And that was three times as many as there were in April. And dozens of people were killed, you know, including those that were sleeping in their beds at night or out doing their shopping on a Saturday. So, you know, while on the surface, it looks like people are kind of handling it all, when you talk to people, I mean, many do express a sense of fear. kind of handling it all. When you talk to people, I mean, many do express a sense of fear. And tell me a little bit more about the kids. You know, you mentioned that people are sleeping underground in stations, but the kids are also going to school underground too, right?

Yeah, that's right. There are basically five different schools set up in metro stations across Harkiv. These schools include kindergarten classes. We were at one on Sunday, actually. And they started these programs back in January, and the teachers that we spoke with said they've noticed a big difference in the children between January and now. A lot of them were very withdrawn. They weren't laughing or playing with toys.

And they've noticed kids just becoming more confident because they are in a safer environment. They feel safer. And when we were at the kindergarten, these kids were five and six years old. I mean, they're very young. And some of their earliest memories will be about the war. How does it make you feel sometimes when you hear the air raid siren? It's scary. It's scary.

It's scary, she says. We always hide with my mom in the corridor, says another little girl. They're doing arts and crafts, and they're making little ladybug decorations, but at the same time, the teacher says they're learning about how to identify a landmine. So you can only imagine just what kind of effect this is having on their development in the long run.

Yeah, it's heartbreaking. How much can you see the evidence of Russian attacks on the streets there? Well, in some neighborhoods, it's very visible. In the far northeast of the city, there's a neighborhood called Siltivka. And when the war started, the full-scale invasion back in February 2022, you had Russian artillery that was closer to the city, and it was bombarded all the time. So when you drive around now, you see apartment buildings with craters in them, you know, most windows, frankly, still boarded up. But then when we're talking about more recently, I mean, we're talking about missile attacks, bomb attacks, drones, and that is really sporadic,

and it's scattered throughout the city. And I think one of the worst that has happened recently was an attack on a shopping mall. And it was basically, I mean, if you think about a Home Depot, that's what it was. It was a home, a very large home repair store. And it happened on a Saturday afternoon. And at least 19 people were killed in that attack. And we were down kind of at the site the other day. And you're like a huge parking lot just full of kind of charred debris. And you can really still smell, you know, the scent of burning in the air.

But then other neighborhoods are completely untouched. Right. I understand the advance on Kharkiv, Russia's new advance. It's stalled now. Well, there's two main reasons. I mean, when they first came over the border at the beginning of May there, around May 10th, Ukraine basically decided to redeploy troops. So troops that were stationed further in the southeast, they moved them up towards the Kharkiv area to defend the line there. So that certainly made a difference.

In the Kharkiv region, our defense continues in the areas near the border and the city of Ochansk. Over the course of the day, our defense and security forces have managed to partially stabilize the situation. The occupier who entered in the Kharkiv region is being destroyed with all available means. The other really big thing is that recently, Western countries, particularly the United States, gave Ukraine permission, the green light, to use Western weapons to fire into Russia. It's not kind of a carte blanche. They can't just, you know, attack any military targets in Russia. It has to be things along the border. But Ukraine says that has made a big difference because you had all these

Russian units that were essentially lined up along the border firing into Ukraine. And because Ukraine wasn't firing into Russia, they essentially had an immunity. I mean, that's how Ukraine was describing it, that these kind of Russian military targets were off limits to them, and they aren't anymore. And so since this kind of prohibition was lifted and Ukraine is able to use these weapons, they say they've taken out a number of targets, including missile systems. So that's our key. But if we move beyond it, I'm also hoping that you can help me understand how these two plus years have worn down Ukraine more broadly and what the consequences could be, right? So how is the wider country now coping with the losses and the grind of this fighting?

Well, I think worn down is probably the right way to describe it. People are weary, people are exhausted. I mean, how could they not be? This has been going on for nearly two and a half years, much longer than I'm sure they thought. And, you know, we were down in Kiev in the capital at Maidan Square, and they have just thousands of blue and yellow flags sticking out of the ground there honoring soldiers that have been killed. And when you kind of see that sea of blue and yellow, it really kind of hits home, just the toll that this war has taken. And that's just military deaths. I mean, we don't know how many Ukrainian soldiers have died,

certainly in the tens of thousands. Everyone knows someone that they've lost. And I think, you know, when you talk to people, there is this sense of resolve that Ukraine will be victorious at the end of the day. I mean, everybody, you know, keeps telling us that. But I think there is a real frustration that, you know, there's been such a sacrifice and there really has not been much of a change on the front line at all. And, you know, talking about the front line, you know, we talked about how fighting has stalled in Kharkiv, but there are places where Russia is now actually advancing, right? They are. And Russia really seems to be making a push in the southeast, in the Donetsk

area. And in fact, observers were saying that when they launched this offensive in Kharkiv, maybe one of the strategies here was that they were trying to stretch out the front line. So kind of move Ukrainian troops from the south to the north. But I think, you know, we are starting to see some of the weapons like the ammunition that Ukraine said they were desperately in need of making its way to the front line. But I think it's acknowledged by most military experts that this will be a year where Ukraine is on the defensive and Russia is the one pushing forward. And I mean, the big question is just can Ukraine hold them and stop Russia from making any more substantial gains? In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection.

Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because

money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. In December, the president said that they needed half a million more fighters. They recently passed laws to draft more people. The most notable law change is the age of mobilization, which has been lowered from 27 to 25, adding 100,000 potential conscripts. The bill also targets those who evade service. Fines for draft dodgers have been increased fivefold and all men at home and abroad. But talk to me about why some people in Ukraine are now arguing for demobilization. That's right. And,

you know, you're starting to see these protests, small protests pop up across the country of women, mostly women, who are trying to plead with the government to essentially release their husbands, fathers and brothers from the front line. I'm sure people can remember that in the, you know, the first few days, weeks and months of this war, there was a call to arms and men rushed to enlist. But a lot of them didn't think that they would still be fighting nearly two and a half years later. And so you have a lot of people that are both physically exhausted, a lot of people that are both physically exhausted, mentally exhausted, and wondering, well, why can't somebody else replace me? And we spoke to one young woman, Anastasia Bulba,

whose husband, a 48-year-old Valeri, he's on the front line and has been throughout all of this. And she says he's in poor health, he's not doing well, the family isn't doing well, and she really wants to know why there's no other men kind of coming forward in large numbers to step in and take the place so others can get a break. But I say to everyone, let's change them alive, not dead, but you will be replacing them. In any case, I would like them to be replaced alive. There's one solution for fighters that sort of echoes what Russia has done. And what are Ukraine's plans for getting prisoners to fight? That's right. And they're turning to the prisons because there hasn't been a lot of volunteers stepping forward now, despite their recruitment campaigns,

which they're doing. So what they've done is they've turned to the inmate population, and they've basically given them a choice. You can continue to serve the rest of your sentence in penal colonies as you do, or you can be released to the military and essentially serve on the front line until the war is over. And after that, you will be paroled. And so they anticipate, you know, they'll be able to recruit thousands of soldiers this way. More than 5,000 have already signed up for this. Not all prisoners are eligible. For instance, if you committed treason, if you're in prison for that, or if you've murdered two or more people, you are prohibited.

But, you know, they do think that they'll be able to recruit a lot this way. And then when we were at a prison just outside of Kyiv, we spoke with two prisoners. One was named Renat Trmagalev, and he was in prison for murder. But he talked about how he wanted to basically sign up so he could help defend his country. Well, my mom is against. She's scared I'm going to be killed and won't come back alive.

My brother and stepdad's sister, they are for it. I've got a brother who's fighting. He's not against me going to defend Ukraine. Another kind of attrition happening here is, of course, the equipment Ukraine needs to keep fighting, some of which Canada has been providing. But just one example, what did one Ukrainian commander tell you about the armored personnel carriers Canada sent over? Yeah, it was kind of interesting because we were speaking to this commander and we were meeting him kind of at this, you know, undisclosed location. We just found out we were meeting him, you know, about five minutes before. And we turn up and he had behind him an armored personnel carrier made by the Canadian company Rochelle.

And more than a thousand of these have been sent. And what the commander said is they're very good vehicles, but they're really not suitable for the bumpy, muddy roads that the soldiers need to drive them on. When did you get this vehicle? How long have you had these Canadian vehicles? Eight months, maybe. Remontovалась разив так сто. Eight months, maybe. We repaired it a hundred times. But we were fixing it for 100 times.

100 times? Yes. Because it breaks, because of the bumpy roads. They were trying to move this, drive this APC up a hill. And it wasn't even a steep hill. It was kind of like a slight incline, but it was muddy. It had been raining. And it took them maybe five minutes of kind of going forward and reversing, trying to

get it unstuck. Might be worth noting here as well that Canada promised Ukraine a surface-to-air missile defense system 18 months ago that we still haven't delivered. But generally though, Briar, like what else does Ukraine say it's lacking that's making it hard to defend itself? Right. Well, air defense is really the biggest one. And, you know, besides Canada, you've had other countries that have promised air defense. And it's taking a long time to deliver these systems because, you know, you can't necessarily just order them up and ship them off. It's the same with ammunition. You've had countries, particularly European countries, that have pledged a huge amount of ammunition,

and they simply cannot produce it fast enough for Ukraine. The other thing that they've been asking for it for a long, long time, and they're going to get it very soon, are F-16 fighter jets. You have Denmark and the Netherlands that are kind of leading the way with that. We understand that the first jets should be arriving in Ukraine very soon and that, you know, the pilots have already received the training. What kind of difference it will make, I'm not so sure. But what's happening here is that at the beginning, you know, Ukraine was requesting things and sometimes you would have, you know, like the U.S. or other Western countries say, no, we're not going to do that. We don't want to escalate the situation. And then, you know, gradually, the West is providing Ukraine with more and more. On that note, I mean, this is something we've talked about on the show several times,

the worry that the support from Western countries was slow coming or dwindling. Last week, the G7 group of countries did announce $50 billion U.S. in loans, which will actually be backed by frozen Russian assets. And the U.S. announced another $1.5 billion in aid. But there are also some pretty serious political shifts happening in the majority of those countries, right? And what could that mean for money going to Ukraine in the relatively near future? Right. And that is the big unknown in all of this, because I think we have seen this

flurry of commitments from Western countries, including Canada, recently to support Ukraine. Canada announced a new $52 million package for Ukraine, including to help displaced children, replace damaged energy equipment and help rebuild. You had that $60 billion military aid package that was stalled in Congress. It was eventually approved. On this vote, the ayes are 311 and the nays are 112. The bill is passed. You know, it's on its way to Ukraine now. But what happens, for instance, if Donald Trump is elected again and he becomes president? He's made comments in the past about how if he was reelected, he would end the war right away. I think Zelensky is maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that's ever lived. Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion.

I will get the problem solved and I will get it solved in rapid order. And it will take me no longer than one day. I know exactly what to say to each other. I mean, you know, without providing any details whatsoever. But what does that mean? I mean, we've also seen in Europe parties that are more right wing, you know, surge in popularity. I mean, the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, who has come out really as probably the leading voice for support in Europe around Ukraine. And I mean, he's called an election and it looks like he will he will

likely be defeated. So what changes, right, when you have this kind of political shift? Friar, how did the Ukrainians that you have talked to feel about whether they think they can win this war by fighting or whether it's possible to find a diplomatic solution here? You know, it depends the mood they're in when you're talking to them. And, you know, a lot of the times we're speaking to people about these things and they feel very conflicted because I said, on the one hand, people don't want to see Ukraine give up any of the territory, right? They don't want to enter into any kind of deal that would have to, you know, sign away their land to Russia. But at the same time, people are weary and see that there is not much changing on the

battlefield except tens of thousands of soldiers dying. We covered a funeral that took place in Kiev a little earlier this week for a military photographer who was killed by a glide bomb. And after the funeral was over, my producer spoke with one of his friends, Hannah Bodnar, and she is not only a friend of this photographer, but she's also a politician. And she said that, you know,

while she doesn't want to see Ukraine lose any kind of land, she really thinks that this conflict will have to be settled by political discussions. Two years ago, I even couldn't imagine how can it finish. We hoped for our army two years ago, but now we see that the army of Russia is very large. There are many more times people. So my feeling is it will finish by the political way.

I guess that brings us to this past weekend, right? Over 90 countries came together for the so-called Peace Summit in Switzerland, which in name sounds like a serious step forward for negotiations. But Russia was not there, which is a real glaring hole, right? this final document committed to the, quote, territorial integrity of Ukraine, Russia's President Vladimir Putin has also put forward his own workable peace deal, right? And just tell me about how it differs from the position that Ukraine is taking right now. Like, where are we when it comes to a possible deal? Well, we are not close at all. I mean, consider the proposal that Vladimir Putin put forward. I mean, it was his suggestion, his vision was basically asking Ukraine to capitulate. I mean, he said Ukraine would have to withdraw all of its troops from the territory that Russia occupies and agree never to join NATO. Well, both of those things are non-starters for Ukraine. And you have President

Volodymyr Zelensky talk about how they will keep fighting till they reclaim all of its territory, including Crimea, which of course Russia legally annexed in 2014. And you mentioned the so-called Peace Summit. And I think, you know, it was maybe a peace summit in name only, because this did not include any kind of negotiations at all. I think what this was, was another show of support for Ukraine among its allies. And Ukraine did, you know, manage to attract dozens of countries and organizations to this summit, you know, including countries like Brazil and Qatar, which are closer aligned with Russia.

101 states and international organizations are now at the summit. And this is a tremendous success, our success, the common success of all those who believe that a united world, united nations are stronger than any aggressor. But Russia wasn't there. China wasn't there, which Ukraine really was hoping to see.

Not all the countries signed on to this communique, nor has there been any plans for a subsequent peace summit. So the idea that these two countries are going to start negotiating anytime soon, that's not realistic. There would have to be something substantial change to bring them to the table. What kind of substantial change could there be at this point? Like, what could it possibly take for one side or the other to compromise enough to make a peace deal possible?

Well, I think there could be a couple of things. I mean, the obvious one is if there is a really dramatic change on the battlefield, either, you know, for Ukraine or Russia, if either side makes substantial gains, that would really put pressure on the other side to enter into negotiations. I think perhaps what we will see is kind of the political factors playing a bigger role. So, for instance, I mean, even though Western countries talk about, you know, standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes, what happens if the money, the military weapons that it gets from the United States, what happens if that slows down and Ukraine, you know, simply can't carry on the way it has in terms of fighting

this war? On the other hand, with Russia, what happens if the Western countries take a harder line and really try to punish Russia more financially, you know, really try to go after some of the countries that are helping it evade sanctions? You know, Russia is doing, you know, better because it's been able to mobilize its economy. But that what they're doing, I mean, everyone says it's not they're not going to be able to kind of run their economy this way and have people working, you know, 24 seven, churning out tanks, churning out ammunition. This is not something that can last in the long term. Maybe it'll be a year or so. So I think, you know, apart from any kind of significant change on the battlefield, it could be, you know,

a change in political circumstances that, you know, maybe force these countries to negotiate. And what about the populations themselves of both countries? Is there a scenario where they are just feeling so exhausted and hopeless and frustrated that they are able to move the needle at all here? Well, I think in terms of gauging, you know, public opinion or public sentiment in Russia, it is very difficult, not only because of the repression, but Russia is a very, very large country, and you have a very diverse population. And Russia says it's able to, you know, mobilize or recruit 30,000 soldiers a month. It has a much larger population than Ukraine. So you definitely don't

have that sense of exhaustion in Russia that you do in Ukraine right now. And as for Ukraine, I mean, you will not hear people say publicly that Ukraine should give up territory, that they want to keep fighting this. But I am sure people are conflicted, right? About how much longer does this go on, particularly if we see another year of war or even another two years and things don't change substantially at all. All right.

Briar, thank you so much for this. Thanks for all your reporting. And we'll talk to you soon. You're welcome. Bye-bye. All right, that is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening.

Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.