Front Burner - What issues will shape the 2019 federal election?

Episode Date: June 24, 2019

With the House of Commons adjourned and the federal election just months away, summertime hours mean Members of Parliament and hopeful candidates will be out campaigning on the BBQ circuit. The writ drop is expected for September and voting day is slated for on or before October 21. So what issues are shaping the election so far? Today on Front Burner, CBC’s Power and Politics host Vassy Kapelos joins us to explain.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. As I talk about it, I can feel and smell everything that I did back then. And he looks down at me, I'm looking up at him, and he says, that's my little girl. It's a 30-year-old homicide where we don't have anybody charged and convicted.

Felt like a murderer had gotten away with something. Tell me now, did you have anything to do with the murder? Someone Knows Something with David Ridgen, Season 5. Now available. Go to cbc.ca slash sks. Hello, I'm Jamie Pussum. So if you can believe it, the federal election is now just four months away. Last week, the House of Commons adjourned. It's the pleasure of the House to adopt the motion.

Carry. And summertime hours means MPs and candidates will be out working the barbecue circuit. The writ is expected to drop in September, with voting day on or before October 21st. Today, my colleague Vashie Capello's host of Power in Politics is back, and we're going to try and zoom out here and get a bird's eye view. What are the big issues, the fault lines that are shaping up to define this election? I actually love these kind of conversations because election issues are defined by what people are talking about at their dinner tables, at their offices, and we're going to try and tap into some of that today.

That's coming up on FrontBurner. Vashi, so nice to have you back again. Hi, Jamie. So I want to go over with you today some of the big issues that, barring anything sort of earth-shattering happening, are looking to be shaping up this election season. Why don't we start with climate change? Because this has been a big year globally for this issue. Yeah, I think internationally, obviously, given some of the reports, especially out of the UN about how catastrophic things are getting.

A 1.5 degree limit seems daunting. The report suggests everything from how we get around to what we eat would have to change fast. It's a big conversation. And then here here at home the same thing is happening. And so last week we saw Conservative leader Andrew Scheer announce his plan. For what is the most highly anticipated policy announcement from an opposition party in Canadian history. And he reaffirmed his party's plan to end the carbon tax, which is something that he said he was going to do. He also plans to introduce a tax for what he calls heavy emitters. And so tell me a little bit about what the reaction has been to his plan. Yeah, I think that, I mean, no big surprise,

the carbon tax is gone. The big part of the surprise. No big surprise to anyone. No big surprise. We knew that was coming. Today, Justin Trudeau unveiled his election gimmick. Liberal carbon tax is just about raising revenues for government and it'll make jobs disappear. The big surprise, I would say, is that they decided to keep the Paris targets. There had been a lot of speculation in the lead up to this announcement about whether they would or not. They don't necessarily say they're going to meet them. This plan gives Canada the best possible chance of achieving those targets. Which is an interesting way of phrasing it.

Right. In general, I mean, it's received along those fault lines that you already discussed. It depends on what side of the political spectrum you're on. I think for liberals, there's still stuff for them to criticize. There's a lot of details missing in this. For conservatives, this is pretty comprehensive. It's, you know, a way to fight back against the criticism that until now they didn't have a plan. Right, right. I know some of the criticisms of the Liberals have already gone after the Conservatives as sort of a lack of details around, you know, setting emission standards for major emitters. He hasn't really said exactly how he's going to do that.

The environment minister was also in full campaign mode, clearly not impressed with Scheer's ideas. If you talk to economists, you talk to people who are trying to parse through and understand what this fake plan actually means, no one believes that this is going to be serious in terms of reducing emissions for heavy emitters. Basically, all he said so far, or what the Conservatives said, was that there would be a limit of how much you can emit, just as there is in most provinces right now for heavy emitters. If you go past that, you have to invest a certain amount of money

into some kind of green technology. We will set this limit at 40 kilotons per year. That's 10 kilotons stricter than the Liberals' output-based system. We don't know exactly how much money, what it would look like depending on the company or the industry, would there be differences there, and we don't know exactly what kind of green technology. But it's basically, it's like a carbon tax,

except for it's not a tax. That money isn't then collected by the government. It instead is invested into technology. And that's the central kind of difference, you know, technology over taxes. Right, right. And, you know, another thing I heard Shira say last week is the idea that we want to invest in technology

to help other countries do better around polluting. The fact is, Canada will not make a meaningful contribution to fighting climate change by focusing only on our own emissions. Yeah, this is actually, it's weird. I've had interviews lately where I find more and more politicians are talking about this. And it's sort of the idea that we can develop technology in this country that helps other countries. I mean, it's an interesting way of looking at things. The federal government is even kind of looking at it as well, to a certain degree. The hard part is figuring out how it will actually work. And we should mention, too, I mean, the Liberals' climate plan, it's widely believed that their plan

is also not going to get us to the Paris target of 30 percent under 2005 emission levels either. And I'm curious to hear your perspective on how you think the Green Party is going to capitalize on this issue of climate change in this election. We're already seeing modest gains throughout the country. Paul Manley won the B.C. riding of Nanaimo Ladysmith in a by-election last night, and that doubles the number of Green MPs from one to two. Oh yeah, they're already capitalizing on it. I mean, that's in popular support, and the big question always with the Greens is whether they can turn that popular support into an efficient vote so that they actually win more seats than they're used to. But certainly on this issue, I mean, this is their strength. They kind of have to try in a general election to get away from just a single focus. But in the lead up

to it, they have a very specific voice in this debate. So, for example, they have been very critical of the Liberals and specifically Elizabeth May for declaring a climate emergency, I think it was Monday night, and Tuesday approving the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion. She called it cynical. We know that diluent mixed with bitumen can't be cleaned up. We know we're in a climate emergency. Our government has betrayed us. And worse than that, they've betrayed their own children. She talks about the Paris targets not being stringent enough.

So that's another sort of way that her plan is different than the Liberals, the Conservatives and the NDP. Her targets would be 60 percent lower than 2005 levels by 2030. So she certainly like provides a perspective that will help inform the debate, I think, as we head into the campaign around climate change. I want to move on to the idea of Canadian values, which is a little bit harder to define. But, you know, we're living in turbulent times right now. The liberals have set themselves up as defending progressive values, whether or not people think that's true. I will also be very sharp wherever we see significant policy differences. Wherever we see significant policy differences and whenever someone is pulling up intolerance and playing fear as a way of getting elected.

And, you know, for example, we recently saw Miriam Monsef, Minister of Women, call out conservative MPs who attended a rally that was anti-abortion in May. And what's your sense of how social issues are playing out in this upcoming election season so far? Well, it's really interesting. I'll pick up on the wording that you use, which is that they're hard to define. And that's what makes them such good campaign fodder from a political perspective, not a Canadian's perspective, but a political perspective. I think you're absolutely right. You look at issues like abortion or feminism or immigration and already in the lead up to this campaign, you can see how the sort of rhetoric is forming, how the debate is forming. It's, you know, it gives me this like awkward feeling to have to cover it on the show. I can't stand it because it's politics on both sides, really. It's very hard to sort of make it black or white. I mean, are all

conservatives anti-abortion activists? No. Are some of them showing up at rallies? Yes. Are all liberals ardent defenders of feminism? No. Are some of them, you know, better defenders of women's reproductive rights, insofar as Canada and Canadians have deemed them to be? Probably. And so there's, you know, both of them, it works to either side. It's really hard to, I think it's going to be really hard for Canadians to navigate it because it's going to be that one sort of hyper political aspect of the campaign. That's hard to just sort of Google and say like, who's right and who's wrong. What are the facts here? I'm very concerned with the situation around the backsliding of women's rights that we're seeing from conservative movements here in Canada.

Andrew Scheer has also made it very clear that he doesn't want to legislate this issue. He doesn't want to open it up. And yet we still hear lots of noise around it. Trudeau is trying to make that an election issue here. Pointing to moments like in the House today when the opposition did not stand for a symbolic show of support for a woman's right to choose.

Yeah, most definitely. And I think that speaks to the politics around this, right? I mean, there is sort of, there is a thing about elections that doesn't just speak to logical, pragmatic things that we're thinking about. It's a gut feeling, right? Like, where do I stand on issues?

What do I centrally believe? Like, it becomes an issue that can be motivating at the polls. So Andrew Scheer says he's not going to legislate on it. The liberals will say, well, what about private members bills? And what about how they end up spending aid money around the world? Will they, for example, withdraw money that has gone towards reproductive rights in other countries. And on that, so far, we don't have a clear answer. So I just think it's one of those things that, and we saw it with immigration previously, like it's going to rear its head in the election. I think that's almost a guarantee. And can we dig into immigration then a little bit more as well, because this is another issue that I wanted to talk to you about. This is something I was hearing

the Conservatives talk a lot more about last year, when we had more of an influx in asylum seekers crossing the border. The honourable member for Milton. The inability of the Prime Minister to actually understand the topic in front of us is gravely concerning. He opened up the floodgates when he tweeted out he has done nothing to stop the floodgates since it's happened. But less so lately. Am I right about that? I think so, yeah. I mean, I would say like all political parties are talking about it less than they were.

I think that it was motivated primarily by, again, the sort of situation outside of politics. So like you said, those asylum seekers, those people crossing the border in between official points of entry, just seeing those images, hearing the numbers, it was, you know, tens of thousands of people over a couple of years, certainly, I think, provided the context for that discussion and that debate to occur.

Are you aware that the very minute you cross this border, your status in the United States is nullified? Yes. The Conservatives were critical of the liberals for what they viewed as lax policy, and the liberals were critical of the motivation for the conservatives for saying any of that, basically. The Minister of Immigration will not even say

the word illegal border crossing. Conservatives' approach is to muddy the waters and play up divisions in fear. And this also, of course, plays into what we were just talking about, these like deep emotions that go to like the identity of what this country is about. And you can see a lot of spin on all sides here. Yeah, and it's interesting because you think, I mean, most people I speak to say, we welcome refugees here, we like immigration.

But the idea of people sort of walking in between points of entry, it just feels a bit off. Like what's what's going on? Is there is there a more orderly way to address this? So I think actually most people, the majority of Canadians and polling will reflect this kind of fall somewhere in the middle and they hold a more nuanced view. But that's not reflected in the political debate that occurred as a result. So it So I wouldn't say it's a bad thing that it's kind of fallen off the radar. It's a good thing. I just would sort of caution that depending on what's happening around the election, if you'll think back to 2015 when there was the Syrian refugee crisis and Alan Kurdi.

This photo is now being shared worldwide. It is the image of a lifeless child in the arms of a rescuer on a Turkish beach. One of the thousands of migrants and refugees from the war-torn Middle East and Africa who have perished in a desperate attempt to find a new life in Europe. It became a huge issue in that campaign, and so world events can certainly dictate the same happening this time around. For me, I think maybe the last time that immigration was very front and center was around the time of the U.N. Migration Pact, which is a non-binding agreement that dealt with how countries should deal with migrants.

And, you know, there was a lot of debate here. Andrew Scheer had raised concerns over whether or not this pact would result in foreign countries essentially telling us how to deal with our borders. Canadians and Canadians alone should make decisions on who comes into our country and under what circumstances. Yeah, exactly. And in the end, that was debunked. The pact is not binding on any country that signs on to it. There are legitimate concerns about the way in which

a federal court might interpret the PAC, but so far those are not founded. And as soon as that all became clear, it seemed as though the whole debate kind of dissipated and Mr. Schur kind of walked away from it. We'll be back in a second. We'll be back in a second. Discover what millions around the world already have. Audible has Canada's largest library of audiobooks, including exclusive content curated by and for Canadians. Experience books in a whole new way, where stories are brought to life by powerful performances from renowned actors and narrators.

With the free Audible app, you can listen anytime, anywhere, whether you're at home, in the car, or out on a jog. The first 30 days of the Audible membership are free, including a free book. Go to www.audible.ca to learn more. slash CBC to learn more. Let's move on today to the economy, which is a big one, right? And this issue of affordability, big issue in the last election. And I want to talk to you about how big of an issue you think it will be in this election. I think it's going to be huge.

I think the economy is always important, but there's something really interesting happening that I myself am very curious to see how it plays out in the campaign. And that is that the economy is kind of firing on all cylinders. Growth is amazing. Right, it's doing very well. Yeah. Jobs, the liberals are able to say a million jobs have been added since we came to power in 2015. But there is also this sense of anxiety that it hasn't necessarily translated to me, you, or I, or anyone feeling better off. And I'm very curious to see how the political parties end up strategically addressing that. And why are people feeling like they're not better off? That is a billion, billion, billion dollar question. I'm fascinated by trying to figure

out an answer to it. I mean, there are certain statistical markers that explain some of it. For example, the cost of living has increased at a pretty, I mean, go to a grocery store. You don't even have to use numbers. You can see how much more a chicken breast costs now than it did 10 years ago. Or produce or all those kinds of things. Prices are going up. Things are more expensive. Houses.

Think about the price of housing, especially in big urban centers. I live with my parents right now. I work a minimum wage job, and I'm a student right now, so everything is way out of my price point. With taxes being high, and food going up, clothing going up, it's expensive to live. But the other part is that wages have not necessarily always, and it depends, again, on the year and the time of year, but they aren't necessarily keeping up with growth. And it may also be the type of jobs. There's a lot of temporary or contract work as well in those numbers. So, you know, that's part of the reason.

But there's something else out there. And I don't know if I can necessarily put my finger on it. But we've seen it in lots of other countries, including most immediately. Right, this is a global phenomenon. The U.S., yeah. This sense that that like, the status quo just isn't benefiting you or I. And so I think, you know, if I'm the liberals, if I'm the conservatives, or the NDP, a lot of how I figure out how I kind of come up with my

platform and policies and the kind of language I use is going to be involving thinking about that. And so what kind of signals have we seen from them when it comes to this issue, right? Like these are called pocketbook policies, right? Totally. And we've seen lots of that. Even think about the Raptors ads that ran from the Conservatives. Every day, families in this neighbourhood work hard trying to get ahead. They make tough choices because of the rising cost of living. I understand their frustration when government makes it hard to even get ahead. They make tough choices because of the rising cost of living. I understand their frustration when government makes it hard to even get by. You know, we know you don't feel

better off. You know, things aren't that great for you. So the Conservatives will have to find a way to sort of deal with the reality of the numbers, which is that the economy is doing well, and still try and focus on that anxiety. The Liberals are hinting about pharmacare, for example, universal pharmacare, things like that. We're building on commitments going back to 2015

and made completely in budget 2019 to improve access to necessary medications. They're going to be talking about the middle class still, like they did four years ago, very successfully. We don't know if it'll be

as successful this time. But they too, the prime minister, a couple weeks ago, he was somewhere internationally, I can't remember where, and he was saying the same thing, that he, you know, he acknowledges the numbers are good, we've added a lot of jobs, we're in the right direction, but I know that you still have a heightened sense of anxiety.

There are many politicians who look for popularity given that anxiety and work to amplify or echo back those fears to people without actually offering solutions. So even in the way that they're addressing Canadians, each and every time you hear an acknowledgement of that sort of issue. Right, right. And, you know, you mentioned Pharmacare. The NDP unveiled their platform earlier this month. It touched on a number of policy points, but at the center of it was this concept of head-to-toe health care, right? Of universal drug coverage, dental and vision care, universal pharma care. For the first time, every single Canadian can count on this.

If you need medication, if your loved one needs medication, you can get it, period. Paid for with your health card, not your credit card. As you mentioned, the Liberals are heading in this direction too. And it's fair for me to say that this is sort of a direct attempt to address some of these anxieties, particularly, you know, you mentioned a lot of people are on contracts, right? Like they wouldn't necessarily have drug coverage with their work. Yeah, exactly. And this was an issue over the past few years. It's always been an issue for the NDP. We had a study come out commissioned by the government, the 50 millionth study in the past 40 years that said that, you know, that established that we are the only

country that offers universal Medicare that doesn't offer universal pharmacare. The study was chaired by Eric Hoskins. It was in a single province or territory that didn't indicate to us that they are at or close to the breaking point in terms of sustainability with the high cost of medicines. So now we'll be looking to see in the campaign exactly how they end up promising it.

We know, like you said, what the NDP is. Will the Liberals say that this is single payer? And if so, how are they going to factor in, you know, $15 billion a year at its sort of top level to pay for it? How will that impact the deficit projections, that kind of thing? I think there will be a discussion that ensues. They have dropped a lot of hints that that's where they're heading, though. Where I wanted to end this conversation with you today is around leaders, because people also vote for people, right? And a big storyline in this election is obviously going to be Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has been this brand unto himself for the last several years. This time around, though, it feels obviously it's different. There have been scandals, there have been broken promises. I think it's probably to

be expected, but it does feel like his luster has worn off. And how much do you think that that is going to play into this election? Yeah, I think definitely it was to be expected. There is no way that you can come in with that kind of promise, that kind of luster. Right. I mean, to be fair, Barack Obama, like, you know, didn't run on hope and change anywhere the second time around like he did the first time around. Yeah. But you're also right to point out that it hasn't just been, you know, time has passed and they made some promises and now we have to judge them. There have been other almost self-inflicted wounds, I think, as we've discussed on previous

pods, especially around SNC. At that point, the prime minister jumped in, stressing that there is an election in Quebec and that, quote, I am an MP in Quebec, the member for Papineau, end quote. I made the difficult decision to remove Ms. Wilson-Raybould and Dr. Philpott from the Liberal caucus. We've taken every effort to address their concerns. So the interesting thing will be, to what extent does that last through the election? And I think that's actually hard to determine.

I feel like when we were in the middle of SNC, it would have been clear that it was a referendum on Justin Trudeau's leadership and sort of the promise that he made to do things differently and the way that that didn't really materialize. A few months have passed now, though, and the effect on the liberals and specifically on Trudeau and his brand, I think almost bottomed out. Maybe if the ethics commissioner comes back and says, no, he's totally guilty of breaking the law, that could change. But it feels as though they bottomed out, that you can see them slowly coming back a little bit in the polls, not to negate at all the impact that that controversy had on their popularity

and his specifically and his brand. CBC's poll tracker, which analyzes all public polling data, shows the Conservatives are on the upswing. Justin Trudeau is now dragging the party down with him rather than boosting it up, which used to be the case that he was more popular than his party. That's no longer the case. But it has emerged a little bit and there are still four months left to go. And time means a lot in politics. So much could happen in the next four months. Yeah, exactly. So I'm not sure necessarily the degree to which that kind of stuff will impact the way people vote.

But I do think more largely this idea that he came to power on of sunny ways and doing things differently. Like people are over that. Now they'll be looking at their policies and they'll be comparing and contrasting with the other leaders. And at the end of the day, they'll make a choice. Okay, can I still live with this guy over the others? Or am I just over it? Okay, man, there is so much for us to talk about. I'm getting kind of excited for this run. Just four months.

Yeah, just four months. Ashley, thank you so much. And I'm sure we'll be talking to you really soon. Sometimes I feel like I talk to you more than my mom. Thanks for having me. I really appreciate it. Okay I talk to you more than my mom. Thanks for having me. I really appreciate it. Okay. Talk to you soon.

While we're on the topic of elections here, you may have heard last week that Elections Canada had cancelled a $650,000 campaign to have social media influencers encourage young people to get out and vote. The campaign had musicians, athletes, YouTube stars attached to it. It was cancelled over concerns that some of the influencers had previously been involved in activities that could be deemed partisan. Well, over the weekend, some more news on this front. According to Global News, it turns out that Elections Canada had already paid 13 of the influencers a total of $325,000. While the agency says it's working to recoup some costs, according to an Elections Canada spokesperson, these influencers, they have already met their contractual obligations. They're not required to return this money.

Videos for the campaign that we likely won't be seeing now have already been shown. That's all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBrunner. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts. It's 2011 and the Arab Spring is raging. A lesbian activist in Syria starts a blog. She names it Gay Girl in Damascus. Am I crazy? Maybe. As her profile grows, so does the danger. The object of the email was, please read this while sitting down.

It's like a genie came out of the bottle and you can't put it back. Gay Girl Gone. Available now.