Front Burner - What it takes to win the White House

Episode Date: November 3, 2020

Election day in the United States has finally arrived. More than 90 million people have already cast their ballots in advance — a historic high that signals just how consequential many Americans bel...ieve this election will be. And while polling shows that Joe Biden has maintained his lead over Donald Trump, in the key battleground states that decide elections Biden has a much slimmer edge. Today, CBC Washington correspondents Susan Ormiston and Paul Hunter join us for a look at the strategies that could win Trump or Biden the election and whether Biden’s lead in the polls will translate to a victory.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Jamie Poisson. It's Election Day in the United States. 90 million people have already voted. And while polling shows that Joe Biden has maintained his lead over Donald Trump in the key states that tend to decide elections,
Starting point is 00:00:43 Biden has a much slimmer edge. Today, CBC Washington correspondents Susan Ormiston and Paul Hunter are here. We're going to look at both candidates and what it would take to put them in the White House. This is Frontburner. Hi, Susan, Paul, thank you so much for taking the time to chat with us today. I know that you're both flat out. Hey, Jamie. It's an exciting couple of days.
Starting point is 00:01:16 Absolutely. And Paul, we're reaching you in Washington right now. And Susan, you're in Philadelphia. And we're going to be talking about Pennsylvania very shortly. So let's get started. But first, I want to start with a broad question for each of you about these two campaigns as overarching strategies during the election season. And Paul, if we could start with you, how would you characterize what Trump's campaign strategy has been? Well, I mean, first off, I think it's important to say that if COVID had not struck, we wouldn't be having the kind of conversation we are having today. I mean,
Starting point is 00:01:49 Trump would have been campaigning on his economic record. And the debate would be whether he's right on that, whether it's enough to take him over the top with voters, and that it's, you know, would have been a toss up going into election day. Instead, COVID hit and all of Trump's plans for how he would campaign went down the toilet. Likewise, his polling numbers. Now he knows he's losing. So his strategy to get himself reelected in light of his handling of the pandemic seems to be two-pronged. One, he's still got, you know, so-called Trump nation on side, people who will vote for him no matter what, but they're only 40% of the voters, not enough to win. But he needs every single one of them to get out and vote. So rally, rally, rally, rally. Fire up his supporters, energize every last one of them, almost literally,
Starting point is 00:02:35 to get out and mark those ballots. If the radical left gain power, they will collapse our economy and send Pennsylvania into a steep depression. Oh, look at look at all of the fake news. Look at all of the fake news. Number two, the issue is that other 60 percent, most of which are Democrat voters. But as well, it's the so-called soft Republicans, those who don't like Trump, but comfy enough with Uncle Joe. So denigrate Joe Biden. Joe Biden has been blatantly lying about his involvement in his son's corrupt business dealing.
Starting point is 00:03:09 And this is a big smoking gun. Try to keep them from voting. Suggest that if they vote, their votes won't count. The ballots are out of control. You know it. And you know who knows it better than anybody else? The Democrats know it better than anybody else. All those things dampen the other side, rile up your side. It's the one-two punch for Trump. Right. And this idea of dampening
Starting point is 00:03:30 the other side, this idea of voter suppression, which is something we recently talked about on the show, I want to park that for a moment and come back to it because I have a few questions about that a little bit later on. But Susan, how would you compare Biden's strategy to win this election with Trump's? What has Biden been doing? Well, I think it's a fair point, as Paul mentioned, that if COVID wasn't a key character in this campaign, we would possibly be looking at a different result going into the vote Tuesday. I mean, President Trump has consistently mocked, you know, sleepy Joe Biden for hiding in his basement. He has the ability to lock himself up. I don't know. He's obviously
Starting point is 00:04:10 made a lot of money someplace, but he has this thing about living in a basement. Although that's not true, the Biden campaign has kept him extremely contained. Their strategy has been that the more that President Trump talks, the more he might hurt his own campaign, especially as this pandemic worsened into the fall. So, you know, Joe Biden is really the antidote of Trump, the avuncular uncle, the solid, steady shepherd of America. This election is a choice between Scranton and Park Avenue values, between Alliance and Park Avenue values. But it's also about something deeper. Can these parents look their kids in the eye and say, honey, everything's going to be okay?
Starting point is 00:04:52 He's betting that a lot of Americans are tired of the chaos and they want a sort of more boring presidency, someone to guide them through. So he's kept his focus squarely on the coronavirus. to guide them through. So he's kept his focus squarely on the coronavirus. Donald Trump waved the white flag, surrendered to the virus, but the American people don't give up. And staying safe with his campaign has almost allowed Biden a cloak of invisibility.
Starting point is 00:05:18 He's also built a broad coalition of Americans and he's trying to extend his map, his path to victory to the South, to the Southwest, and of course, and he's trying to extend his map, you know, his path to victory to the South, to the Southwest, and of course, the key Midwest states determined not to make the same mistakes that Clinton did in 2016. Iowa values, the American values, you value honor, decency, respect, and dignity. You know, they all matter. And so we know that this election will be won in a handful of key battleground states. And I want to talk about a few of them today. And there are, of course, the Rust Belt states that Trump won in 2016.
Starting point is 00:05:56 He beat Hillary Clinton in all of them, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio. And these are important races this time around, too. But it does seem like one of the tightest and most important races is Pennsylvania, where you are, Ohio. And these are important races this time around, too. But it does seem like one of the tightest and most important races is Pennsylvania, where you are, Susan. And Paul, I'll start with you. Why is Pennsylvania seen as so critical in this election? Well, look, it's got 20 electoral college votes. That's not chump change. Pennsylvania is really an indicator of where hearts and minds are in that whole chunk of the country. It effectively tipped it for Trump last time as he kind of threaded that
Starting point is 00:06:31 needle to get enough electoral votes for the White House. I remember being in Trump headquarters the night of the election in 2016, still thinking Clinton would pull it off because of the so-called blue wall, the states that always go Democrat, chief among them, Pennsylvania. And then it flipped from Clinton leading to Trump leading, and it was over. It's like, Pennsylvania is a classic urban-rural divide state. Democrat votes are mostly in Philadelphia, where Susan is, and in Pittsburgh, Republican votes are everywhere else. So it's a matter of who has the most. There are some who say, watch the numbers coming out of the Philly suburbs tonight. If Trump keeps it close there, he's got the whole shebang. Okay. Susan, we're reaching you in Pennsylvania. You're in Philadelphia. And Democrats are nervous about Pennsylvania, it seems. Biden and his wife are both there on Monday,
Starting point is 00:07:18 along with his running mate, Kamala Harris, and her husband, and Barack Obama was campaigning there recently. Bloomberg is reporting that Democrats are worried about an insufficient turnout among Black and Latino voters. So tell me a little bit about what's going on there. There collectively have been something like 29 visits by each of these two candidates to Pennsylvania and their surrogates during this campaign. So all eyes are on this state. I can tell you talking to voters here. Now, Philadelphia itself is, you know, 75% Democrat or certainly weighted in that direction.
Starting point is 00:07:54 And the Democrats I spoke to are highly motivated. I don't have any regrets about not having done a maximum effort to replace this terrible president that we have with someone who's decent. Are you nervous? No, I'm excited. In part because they have, you know, electoral PTSD from 2016 when Pennsylvania was perhaps overlooked as we got it, according to Democrats. And of course, Trump flipped it by the narrowest of margins, less than 1%. So yes, they're nervous, but they're super motivated and getting out the vote as in all states,
Starting point is 00:08:32 but particularly here, you know, they think they have enough votes to swing this state, but they have to get them out. And with all the different ways of polling and voting, you know, there've been massive numbers of early votes in Pennsylvania, and the Democrats think that looks good on them. But it also presents a problem, Jamie, on election night, because in this state, ballots can be postmarked up until election day, but they can be counted and received up until Friday at 5 p.m. And that is setting up one of these legal contentious battles in a key state between these two camps. Let's talk about Florida, which is the other big battleground here.
Starting point is 00:09:33 As Paul mentioned, Pennsylvania has a ton of electoral college votes. So does Florida. And for our listeners, if you heard our episode yesterday about the 2000 election, we went back over how Florida can make or break an election. And polls are saying the race is very tight there. And I want to talk about one demographic that the Biden campaign has been courting very hard in Florida, and that's seniors. And Susan, how has Biden been trying to woo seniors in the state to vote for him? Well, I think if you look at what this campaign has unearthed, you know, the focus on the pandemic. Of course, seniors are worried about the coronavirus. Well, he throws super spreader parties at the White House where Republicans hug each other without concern of the consequences. How many of you have been unable to hug your
Starting point is 00:10:17 grandkids? They're worried about their health care. They're also worried about their social security and various concerns that that may be affected by who is president next. But I think there's one other thing that I picked up when I spent a week in Florida on the campaign is there's concern about decency. were very motivated to vote for Biden because they see him as a decent, a caring, a humane president, as opposed to Donald Trump. This election is the most important one you've ever voted in, whether it's your first or tenth. Ladies and gentlemen, the heart and soul of this country is at stake. Trump has been bleeding seniors. So that's why we saw President Trump on the South Lawn
Starting point is 00:11:05 while he was still in isolation, having gotten COVID, doing a video saying, I love seniors. I love you. I'm a senior. Please stay with me. Be with me. An urgent appeal to keep those numbers up. We're taking care of our seniors. You're not vulnerable, but they like to say the vulnerable,
Starting point is 00:11:22 but you're the least vulnerable. But for this one thing, you are vulnerable. So am I. And Paul, another very critical voting bloc in Florida is Latinos. In the 2000 election, we saw how a lack of support among Latinos for Al Gore could have cost him the election, essentially. And how are Republicans trying to convince Latinos to vote for Trump? What's happening with this voting bloc? Well, I think one thing to keep in mind with Latinos is that it's, you know, they are not a monolith. People tend to think of Latino Americans, Hispanic Americans as trending toward Democrats. And there's a lot of evidence to support that. But at the same time, you know, many are socially conservative. And so, for example, on the Trump front, appointing conservative
Starting point is 00:12:10 judges to the Supreme Court and other layers of the judiciary is a big deal. In South Florida, there are a lot of ex-Cubans who fled the Castro regime, and Republicans are anti-Castro. So that's another check in the box on the Trump side. I've met a lot of, not just in Florida, but throughout the Southern U.S., Hispanic Americans who are pro-border wall because they think a lot of the undocumented migrants give those who came here through proper channels, a bad name. So by emphasizing those aspects, Republicans are trying to win that vote in Florida. There's a lot of reasons I'm voting for President Trump. He's not a politician. And I like that.
Starting point is 00:12:55 I like that he's not part of the deep state. I like that he's a businessman. I like that he doesn't go around bowing to other countries. OK, what about you, Susan? I know that you've been talking to Latino voters in Florida as well. What have you heard? You know, there's two other things going on in Florida with Latinos. One is a virulent disinformation campaign in the Spanish media,
Starting point is 00:13:17 sometimes orchestrated outside of the United States, in Central American countries, even Spain. They've been flooding Spanish language media in Florida with, you know, a very effective and disruptive campaign against Joe Biden. Everything from accusing him of pedophilia to this constant refrain that he's going to make the United States communist. This photo has been floating around on social media. It claims to be Jill Biden next to Fidel Castro.
Starting point is 00:13:50 It's actually a photo of late Norwegian explorer Thor Heyerdahl and his wife Jacqueline Beer. And the other thing is that I think it's widely accepted that the Biden campaign were late to the game on the Latino vote in Florida this time, that they didn't do enough there, whereas Trump has been reaching out to Latinos, particularly young Latino men in South Florida, since he won the election in 2016. Okay. I mean, I guess you can see how important it is. You can also see by what the president tweets. And I know, I think it was yesterday, he just tweeted that Biden was a Castro puppet. So they are definitely going after this vote hard.
Starting point is 00:14:30 Susan, you mentioned earlier this concept of decency when you were talking about seniors. And there's another key demographic, not just in these two states we've been talking about, but all across the country that helped elect Trump in 2016. And that's white suburban women. And what's happening with this group this time around? Why are they considered so key? anticipate in 2016. And this time, it seems that a part of those are moving, shifting back. And of course, what wins elections is shifts. So what we're hearing from suburban and particularly white suburban educated women is we gave Trump a try. And we don't like what we got. We don't like what he brought. We don't like the division. We're not sold on his message that a vote for Biden will make us unsafe. Some of them even embarrassed that they actually voted Republican last time and are swinging back. It's significant. And it's something that actually could make a big difference. The Trump presidency has been a disaster in every single way. George Floyd killing was just so horrific. Our racial reconciliation process is useless. I just saw so many problems in our whole nation.
Starting point is 00:15:55 And I thought, no, this is not going to work again. I found it so interesting listening to some of these women in various interviews. They often bring up the example that the president sets for their children. So they'll say, you know, my kid has to wear a mask to school all day. And the president is making fun of Joe Biden for wearing a mask. I worry about even keeping the television on in my house. She can't get past this. Like, why wasn't he wearing a mask? Like, she's got to wear a mask every day, all day at school. And I'm like, okay, how do you explain to a seven-year-old, like, why the president of the United States is not wearing a mask? I just, I find it such an
Starting point is 00:16:35 interesting insight to listen to them talk about how they're making decisions around this. It is. And I think that that's, you know, something that maybe cannot or is not being measured. This idea of leadership on a very visceral level. Is this a person that we can trust, that we can say to our children, look at this man, he's something to hold up as a bastion of democracy and of leadership. And, you know, a lot of people, a lot of people, particularly mothers and suburban mothers are saying, no, he's not. I was speaking with a, you know, a white college educated suburban woman in the suburbs of Phoenix not too long ago about this, somebody, a woman who voted Trump in 2016 and will be voting Biden this time. And first of all, I asked her, I said, well, why did you vote Trump in 2016? And her answer was, I was just tired of presidents named Clinton or Bush, and I just wanted something different.
Starting point is 00:17:33 And that was part of the appeal of Trump for many in 2016 was he's just, he's not like the rest. And that was a powerful feeling at that time. And in hindsight, people can look back and say, well, we knew what Trump was about, but people didn't really. Yeah, there was the Billy Bush tape and all that stuff. But I think a lot of people were willing to take a chance on Trump. And then, as this woman told me she found out, she regretted it immediately. What do you think this country's in for if Donald Trump gets reelected?
Starting point is 00:18:01 More division, more violence, more riots. And voters, including all those in the suburbs, have now had, the big difference, have had four years of Trump to make that assessment. And there was such antipathy for the guy. People know him now, and that is leading their decision to go in the complete opposite direction with their vote this time. Right. And talking about going in the complete opposite direction, another interesting thing that's happening in this election is the emergence of new battleground states in what's sometimes called the Sun Belt. So Georgia, Arizona, Texas, these are traditionally Republican strongholds, right, Paul? And this year, the polls are showing Biden and Trump neck
Starting point is 00:18:45 and neck in these states. So what's going on there, you think? Yeah, I've spent a lot of time in Arizona and Texas the last, well, this year and in recent years. The reason in Arizona and Texas is largely demographics. The states themselves are changing. Big growth in Hispanic Americans who could turn out tonight, but also people moving to both states from places like California looking for, you know, cheaper cost of living, more jobs. California tends to be Democrat. So you've got all these new Democrats moving into traditionally Republican states. Is it enough? You know, we'll find out. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization,
Starting point is 00:19:48 empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I want to talk to you both create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Cups.
Starting point is 00:20:27 So I actually, I want to talk to you both today about the polls themselves, because so much of this conversation that we're having right now is based on what the polls are telling us right now. But last time they got it wrong. You know, Hillary Clinton was projected to win and that absolutely did not happen. Susan, are there reasons to believe the polls could be more reliable this time around? Well, it depends who you ask. The pollsters say definitively yes, but I will say if Americans are nervous today, pollsters are really nervous because they are saying to me, I've spoken to several of them, look, if the polls are wrong this time, it really will force us to examine whether polling,
Starting point is 00:21:12 the way we poll is actually relevant anymore. There have been changes though, a particular one that was identified from the last election was waiting for education. In some of the polling they did, they did not wait for education. And so we're missing Trump voters who did not have a college degree and their significance to the outcome of that election. So they've changed things like that. But a few other things are helping them this time. And that is that the number of undecideds in America seems to be much, much smaller than it was in the last few days of the campaign in 2016. So you're dealing with fewer number of voters who are on the fence. And also that the decided voters have been dug in for a long time.
Starting point is 00:22:05 Biden has held a relatively consistent lead throughout the campaign, give or take a few points. So it doesn't appear to be as volatile. All right, Paul, anything to add there? The big difference is this isn't 2016, right? There are other factors as well going. There's no third party vote to speak of. The Greens aren't going to pull away votes from Democrats this time. There's no third party vote to speak of. The Greens aren't going to pull away votes from Democrats this time. You know, Biden is a more likable candidate than Hillary Clinton was. You know, the Trump factor, as I say, there's been four years of this guy now. As Susan noted, opinions are baked in. Even when you look at the state polls, right, Biden has had in most of them, in the states that matter, the so-called battlegrounds. Biden has had a comfortable lead for months, right? This is not a zigzaggy up, down, up, down, up, down. It has been months.
Starting point is 00:22:51 People's opinions are baked in. And I'll tell you, the ballot box question here is not Joe Biden. It's Donald Trump. And people have a firm, solid, well-founded opinions on Trump. And that's why they've been so steady for so long at the polls. Okay, so then let me ask you about this, which is something I've been trying to wrap my head around and has actually kept me up a few nights. So let's accept that the polls are better this time around for all the reasons that you both just mentioned. There is also this other issue happening in this election, which is voter suppression or voter subtraction. Right. The idea that the lines have been so long that maybe some people were turned around or that you have to stuff your ballot into like a secret envelope.
Starting point is 00:23:38 And if you don't do that, then your vote won't count. That's happening in Pennsylvania. won't count. That's happening in Pennsylvania. So if the polls are measuring voter intent, what people intend to do, what about the fact that their votes might not be counted? And how could that affect the outcome of this election, Paul? Voter suppression in this country is a real problem. Reduce the hours at polling stations, Increase the need for voter ID. Raise questions about fraud where no evidence exists. Make people think their vote might not count. You talk about lineups. In Indiana on the weekend, Jamie, the wait was eight hours. Wow. Just to vote. I mean, people are taking lawn chairs to these things. And that's good for democracy. But it's also, as you say, it's off-putting.
Starting point is 00:24:25 I don't have eight hours. The people who are targeted in voter suppression are mostly people who trend toward Democrats, poor people, minorities, young people, single moms, people who can't get away and vote unless voting is easy. And voting isn't easy in this country. And do you think it's fair to say that this could possibly change the outcome of an election? Yes. You know, I mean, you look at how tight it was in Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania last time. Trump did not win in a landslide, as the world knows. It was a very
Starting point is 00:25:01 small number of votes. You don't need much. Who knows what the margins will be this time? We'll find out soon enough, right? Okay. Eventually this week. But yes, it's enough. That's why they do it. As Biden has put in an ad, there's a Biden ad floating around now that says, if your vote didn't matter, they wouldn't be trying to you about the issue of vote counting, right?
Starting point is 00:25:37 Because we know that not all the votes will be counted on election night, largely because of the pandemic and mail-in ballots. on election night, largely because of the pandemic and mail-in ballots. And Donald Trump has said time and time again, he wants whoever is ahead on election night to be declared the definitive winner. But I suppose there is a scenario in which a result comes in on the night of the election, like in Pennsylvania, for example, and Trump is ahead. But it could flip afterwards because, as I think one of you mentioned earlier, you can keep counting ballots for a couple of days or at least right now he wants. But does declaring victory have a material impact on what could happen in the days afterwards? fight over counting ballots. So it's not just getting out the vote, it's getting those votes counted. So the president can say what he wants on election night, but it's fiction because the president actually was not declared the winner of several states in 2016 till days after when all
Starting point is 00:26:56 of the votes were finally tallied. 2020 is not different in that way. These votes need to be counted. However, he's trying to set up a sort of default position that all votes need to be counted by the end of the day on November 3rd, and that should declare the winner. I think it's a terrible thing. States are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over, because it can only lead to one thing, and that's very bad. You know what that thing is. Well, that's not what the laws suggest. But as we saw back in 2000, with a long extended fight over who was going to win, Bush or Gore, ultimately, the Supreme Court was asked to rule, and they stopped the vote counting and said, we're making a decision now and no more votes will be counted. And that's one of the strategies, perhaps, for the president to take.
Starting point is 00:27:55 But it's not 2016. It's not 2000. All these legal teams are wise to the different strategies. And I'm telling you, they are lining up to battle. Paul, anything to add there? Well, the other factor is how will the hardcore Trump supporters feel about that and how will they be led by what Trump says? If Trump if Trump it's one thing for Trump to declare victory. But if he were to say, let's say Biden is leading and it's still undecided
Starting point is 00:28:26 and Trump starts talking language like they're trying to steal this, they're trying to take it away from you. He's talking to his hardcore supporters. And the thing about so-called Trump nation is the depth of the love and loyalty for this guy. And so how will they react? There's a lot of fear. I know Susan's seen it in Philadelphia with the downtown boarded up. It's the same here in Washington, D.C. and in other cities. There is a real fear of violence breaking out that could be led by the president saying they, the bad guys, the other side, they're dirty, rotten Democrats are trying to steal this from you. And and, you know And Trump Nation sees Donald Trump as finally,
Starting point is 00:29:07 they got their guy in the White House. This is a once in a lifetime kind of president, and they're trying to steal him from us is the perception that could go out there. Then the fear that people have in this city, in this country is then what happens. Right. So much going on and so much for us to look out for. Thank you both so much. It's always such a pleasure to have you on the show and wishing you the best of luck in your coverage. And hopefully we talk really soon.
Starting point is 00:29:35 Thanks, Jamie. It's exciting. Thanks, Jamie. All right, that is it for today. Please tune in tomorrow morning. We'll be following the election well into the night and probably the early hours of the morning. And we will have the latest for you at 6 a.m. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening and talk to you tomorrow.
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