Front Burner - What Prigozhin’s death means for Putin

Episode Date: August 28, 2023

Russian officials said on Sunday that genetic tests had confirmed that Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash last week. Just two months ago, Prigozhin led an armed rebellion in Russia, in a mutiny that lasted less than 36 hours. Now – many, including western intelligence, are speculating that this crash could have actually been an assassination – ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. Today, the Washington Post’s Russia correspondent, Francesca Ebel, discusses Prigozhin’s death, what it means for the future of the notorious Wagner group, and Putin’s Russia. Looking for a transcript of the show? They’re available here daily: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Tamara Kandaker. So there is this video clip from back in February that's been making the rounds this week of Yevgeny Progozhin, the former hot dog tycoon who went on to lead the mercenary army called the Wagner Group. He's sitting in an army green zip-up, casually talking about the inevitable. Somewhere off screen, you hear his operations commander, Dmitry Utkin, saying death is not

the end. It's just the beginning of something else. Prigozhin agrees with a chuckle. He says, yes, we will all go to hell. But in hell, we will be the best. By now, you've probably heard that a plane carrying both Prigozhin and Utkin, along with eight others, crashed last week, killing everyone on board. Just two months ago, Prigozhin had led an armed rebellion, pulling some of his mercenary fighters out of Ukraine and into Russia to march on Moscow. He aborted that mission within 36 hours, but still, it was an audacious act of disloyalty. Now, many, including Western intelligence, are speculating that this plane crash could have actually been an assassination, ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.

So today, I'm talking to Francesca Ebel. She reports on Russia for The Washington Post about this shocking, but perhaps not surprising death and what it means for the future of the brutal Wagner Group and Putin's Russia. Hi, Francesca. Thanks for being here. Thank you for having me. So we should say that we're recording this on Sunday afternoon, and obviously the story is still developing. But at this point, what do we actually know about the crash itself? Well, this morning, Russian investigators confirmed the deaths of Pregozhin, his second-in-command Utkin, and all of the 10 passengers that were on the plane manifest. That is following DNA tests of the victims. And we still don't know a specific reason for the crash.

Russia's investigative committee say that they are continuing their investigation into the causes of the crash. But many analysts do believe that the true causes of this will never be known because Russia historically has had this opaque and very politicized investigation system. So as it stands, we don't know. And whether we will ever know is an open question. Right. So Progozhin's been known to have body doubles and travel on multiple passports to disguise himself with wigs and costumes. And it's also not even the first time that it's been reported that he died in a plane crash.

But now that Russian officials have confirmed that they've identified his body, do you think we can say for sure that he is dead? I think we can say that it's very likely. The US and UK intelligence community has also indicated that they think that it's likely. This appearance is highly politicized, given the fact that Prigozhin led this mutiny two months ago, in which he led thousands of Wagner fighters to march on Moscow and even briefly occupied a military outpost in the south of Russia. And as a result of that, it's very hard to really say for sure what has happened. A senior U.S. official tonight saying it's a mystery as to why the leader of this mercenary group stopped his march given the dominant position he was in. But now we know

he was given a deal, flee to Belarus, and neither he nor his soldiers will be prosecuted. This after a tense 24 hours that put apparently Russia on the brink of civil war. As you said, in 2019, he already, quote unquote, died in another plane crash in the Democratic Republic of Congo. And then he resurfaced a few days later. And as you said, when his residence was raided in the weeks following the June mutiny, investigators found multiple wigs and disguises and evidence that he frequently travels under different identities. So he is a bit of a, he's a man of mystery. He's a maverick. He does play by a very different rule book. He's also heavily involved in this kind of criminal underworld. So anything is possible. And especially in Russia, anything is possible.

Anything is possible, and especially in Russia, anything is possible. We've already covered sort of several instances of people faking their own deaths. I'm particularly thinking of in 2018, the Russian journalist Arkady Babchenko faked his own death, and we covered his memorials, interviewed his colleagues. We were given sort of evidence of his death and his body, and then he turned up at a press conference a day later. Just as Ukrainian police were calling their news conference and performing their big reveal Babchenko very much alive. Apparently authorities learned two months ago about an assassination plot so Babchenko agreed to fake his death to help gather evidence. So this has been known to happen before.

Anything is possible. But I think at this point, we can probably say that it's likely he's died. Right. OK, got it. So it's been about five days now since this crash. And obviously, there's been a big reaction internationally. But what can you tell me about the reaction domestically in Russia, What can you tell me about the reaction domestically in Russia, both in the that our ability to really take the temperature and talk to people and get their opinions is

pretty limited. But what I can say is that Putin himself, when he spoke about Prigozhin's, well, he spoke about the crash, he didn't actually confirm that he was dead, but he did appear to eulogize him. He called him a talented man who had achieved necessary results but had made mistakes. And only in the wake of that did prominent Russian politicians, I guess, feel that they were able to praise Prigozhin and Wagner as well. So you had lots of politicians praising him as a brave fighter and extolling Wagner's successes in eastern Ukraine. So at an official level, it's all sort of followed Putin's lead.

But in terms of the general public, there have been a number of makeshift memorials that have kind of cropped up all over Russia, particularly in St. Petersburg and Moscow. And lots of people have been laying flowers. For all his violent and foul-mouthed outbursts, often critical of Russia's military leadership, Evgeny Progozhin struck a chord, especially with people like Daria here in St. Petersburg. He always stood up for his fighters, she said, in the special military operation, what Russia calls the conflict in Ukraine. Are you sad that he is gone?

I'm only sad they were so vile to him, she answers. You know, Prigozhin did enjoy a certain amount of popularity, especially amongst those from the sort of more nationalist groupings of people and people that really believed in what Wagner was doing and actually believed that Putin and the Kremlin weren't going far enough in Ukraine. Those groups of people will be shocked and saddened and angered by his death. There's even been videos of mercenaries kneeling and weeping at some of these memorials. And yeah, as I mentioned, if you look at the figures on the far right of Russian politics, and particularly these pro-war military bloggers, there is a certain amount of shock and anger because Prigozhin really was a figurehead of this movement, and he's gone now. And actually, this group of people, I think, is feeling very

vulnerable right now. Not only do you have Progozhin and the top Wagner commanders now dead, you also have other far-right ultra-nationalist figures such as Igor Gorkin, who was a sort of former Russian security agent that led the separatist war in Ukraine in 2014, and is a potential war criminal. And he was imprisoned a few weeks ago or a month ago. And so now you're kind of seeing a lot of these figureheads either dead or imprisoned or put out of action. So they are definitely in a vulnerable position and their days are probably numbered. their days are probably numbered. Yeah, and I want to talk a bit more about the critiques that Prigozhin was making and the people who were supporting him and like what happens to them in a bit. But given that this plane crash happened two months after Prigozhin led this mutiny,

there's been a lot of speculation that Putin was behind his death. And even though he's offered praise and in the eulogy that you mentioned, could you explain why people think Putin might be behind this? Yeah, Vladimir Putin takes betrayal very seriously. It's his major red line. And Prigozhin, who is a formerly close ally of Putin, he was previously known as Putin's chef because he had a number of catering contracts and was known to serve him food at the restaurants that he owned. So he's had a historically very close relationship with Putin and he benefited from that relationship, not just by being given these massive contracts but being allowed to create Wagner in the first place and

this was why this mutiny two months ago was so shocking and so sort of didn't it didn't come out of nowhere in any way but if you track Prigozhin's history for him to end up doing this is very, I don't think anyone saw it coming, and least of all Putin, most likely. And in the sort of first day of this mutiny, it was very clear how shocked Putin was. He gave this, it's very rare for him to give a televised address, but he did. And he called the mutiny a stab in the back, and he called it a betrayal. It is an attempt to subvert us from inside. This is a stab in the back of our troops and the people of Russia. And he promised a very serious retaliation against the people that took part in this mutiny. Now, when this mutiny was halted after 36 hours,

and there was this deal that was brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Everyone was very perplexed because Trigorjin, he was sort of let off. And he promised to halt the mutiny. And in return, he was supposed to go to Belarus with his fighters, and all charges against him were dropped. And in the two months after that, he was sort of allowed to continue, not quite as normal, but it looked as if he'd got off very lightly. And he sort of appeared in a couple of videos training his fighters in Belarus. He even appeared at the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg. And everyone was very confused about how on earth he was still alive. And now it looks like if Putin or the Kremlin was behind this, it does look as if

they were taking these two months to kind of assess and take stock of what had happened and ensure that Wagner's operations, which have been extremely important to them geopolitically, were still in place and weren't just wiped away overnight. So I think there was a degree of calculation with that decision. And yes, but I would mention, of course, that the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has vehemently denied accusations that Putin was behind this and has called all of the speculation all lies. So that's what they're saying. But historically, the Kremlin has targeted its enemies. Yeah, I was going to mention, there's a growing list of people who've died or were attacked under suspicious circumstances

after undermining Putin and the Kremlin, right? Russian state news agencies report a Russian oil executive has died after falling out of a six-floor hospital window. A high-ranking Russian defense official is the latest to pass away under some very curious circumstances. Some at one point critical of the war in Ukraine, several died after falling through windows. At least 13 dead in suspicious circumstances this year. And you mentioned that the Kremlin is strongly denying any involvement, saying that it's an absolute lie that they were involved. And I'm wondering, is there anyone else who might have

wanted Prigozhin dead and had the means to take him out in this way? Because he's obviously made a lot of enemies. Yeah, there's no shortage of people that likely wished him dead. It's not just the Kremlin, but it's also the Russian Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin, for months now, has had a longstanding feud with the Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia's head of general staff, Valery Gerasimov, Russia's head of general staff, Valery Gerasimov, who he has openly criticised of failures in Russia's defence in Ukraine, and also frequently criticised the defence ministry of not providing enough ammunition to his forces fighting in eastern Ukraine. So definitely Russia's military leaders had an interest in his death. Potentially Ukrainians, although they have also denied that they have any involvement in this crash.

And also potentially African and Syrian rebels who were savaged by his mercenaries. Although of all the people that most likely wanted him dead, it's more likely Russian military leaders or the Kremlin. of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix.

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it's okay, we'll throw in a few thousand more Russian men as cannon fodder. They'll die under artillery fire, but we'll get what we want. And so now that he's gone, might that critique live on? This is a really good and interesting question, because what was particularly interesting in the way that Prigozhin openly criticized the defense ministry and Russia's strategy in this war is that it was really one of the only voices, especially from a figure who was so prominent in this war, that was openly criticizing. And not only did he release these, at times, extremely rude and insulting tirades, he also would film himself often, at least in the last few weeks of the Battle of Bakhmut, he would film himself in front of piles of bodies. Which was pretty dangerous for the They came here as volunteers and are dying for you to eat. Which was pretty dangerous for the Kremlin and the Russian military elite because they have worked hard to pretend that their losses are very minimal. I mean, I think the UK and the US have estimated that Russia's death toll is in the many tens of thousands, whereas Russia's official death toll at this point is only a few thousand.

And so it wasn't just what he was saying, it was also how he was saying it and what he was filming. But then also on the eve of the mutiny, he went even further and even questioned the logic for the war itself. The defence ministry tried to deceive the public and the president. Therefore, the so-called special operation of the 24th of February was started for other reasons. The war was needed for the self-promotion of a bunch of bastards

to show off what a strong army it is so that Defense Minister Sergei Shogu gets a marshal. Which was huge and sort of unprecedented and pretty shocking for anyone that's been covering this war from the Russian side of things, because we've heard nothing like this before. Will the critique live on? It looks like this community of pro-war military bloggers, who in the last few months have been one of the more critical groups on the Russian side, who've been particularly critical of the Russian defense ministry strategy, that they were enjoying this sort of peak at one point.

They were even invited into the Kremlin to speak with Putin himself. But as I've said, since the mutiny and since people like Strelkov, Gherkin has been imprisoned and now Pregozhin and the entire Wagner command has been sort of beheaded, they are in a very vulnerable position. And this does send a message that this critique cannot continue. So I don't think personally that it will continue, but it's an open question. What kind of impact do you think the death of Prigozhin could have on how Putin is perceived at home? I think it's safe to say that Prkhorin's death and this plane crash will strengthen the Kremlin's position. As I said, in the aftermath of this mutiny, there was a certain amount of confusion around the Kremlin's reaction, particularly the fact that

Wagner had appeared to very easily take this military outpost in Rostov and then very quickly was able to march almost on Moscow and that really did show the weaknesses in not just the Russian military but also the Kremlin and it showed it showed that he was potentially quite isolated and that people around him are not always telling him the truth or the reality of the situation. And I think this crash shows that he's back in control and that anyone that truly challenges him will be taken out. So after the rebellion two months ago, many Wagner fighters relocated to Belarus and a number of them are still deployed across Africa and the Middle East. So what happens to the Wagner group and its fighters around the world now? I would say it's a little early to say, but what we know from our reporting is that it does look as if in the months since the mutiny and leading up to this crash,

the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry had a plan to replace Wagner. And they've sort of slowly been consolidating that, by which I mean, I think it is significant that they waited two months and they let Wagner continue its operations in Africa. And there was no movement to swiftly liquidate any of those operations. Many analysts have told us that there is a plan for groups associated with the Russian Defense Ministry or the Russian Defense Ministry itself to assume these operations bit by bit. In the last year or so, Russia has created its sort of new private military companies um there's groups such as convoy and radut who have sort of cropped up in the last year that are linked to and contained by the russian defense ministry and you know 100 loyal whereas wagner was led by and had this kind of more sort of freelance structure and attitude right but these new private military companies I think have been created as a sort of plan B

but they are very much based on the Wagner model and it looks like they could move in to succeed the Wagner forces there. There's also a thought that, as you said, there are a lot of Wagner fighters currently essentially trapped in Belarus. And a few days ago, Putin asked the remaining fighters to pledge allegiance to Russia. They were already in the wake of the emergency given a choice to sign new contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry. And I think that will continue to be an option for them, or they may be sort of mixed together with other new mercenary groups and potentially involved in Russia's sort of 2.0 footprint in Africa plan. So we'll have to see. There's still a lot of question marks, but I think it's safe to say that Wagner, as it was, lot of question marks, but I think it's safe to say that Wagner, as it was, is finished. Francesca, thank you so much for walking us through all of this. Super interesting. I really appreciate it. Thank you very much.

All right, that's all for today. I'm Tamara Kandaker. Thank you so much for listening, and I will talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.