Front Burner - What you need to know before election day, Part 2

Episode Date: October 18, 2019

Today, the Conservative and Green platforms are laid out in the second of our two-part series in preparation for voting day. Power & Politics host Vassy Kapelos joins host Jayme Poisson to bring together what you need to know to cast an informed vote.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. All right, today we're diving into part two of our Party Platforms episode. Yesterday, we told you what the Liberals and NDP are offering. Today, we're talking conservatives and Greens so that you can have a better sense of what these parties are promising before you go to vote on Monday. Power and Politics host Vashie Capellos is with me.

I'm J.B. Poisson. This is FrontBurner. Bashi Capellos is with me. I'm J.B. Poisson. This is FrontBurner. Bashi, hey, thanks for coming back. Hi, Jamie. Thanks for having me. And we've got you in person today, a rare occurrence.

So nice to see you. Nice to see you, too. You and I are doing a bunch of election drills over the next couple of days. We're both going to be on TV on Monday night. Yeah, it'll be a fun special. A bit of a new thing for me, but not so much for you. No. So we'll see how it goes. You'll be great.

I expect nothing but the best. To be decided. Okay, so I think it's fair to start this conversation in pretty much the same place. We started yesterday's episode, and that's with the marquee pocketbook promises the conservatives are making. Let's go through some of them. the marquee pocketbook promises the conservatives are making. Let's go through some of them. OK, so I think the way to put our fingers on it is to think back to the very first few days of this campaign. And every single announcement we heard from Andrew Scheer and from the conservatives was directed at that message of affordability. You and your family are at the heart of the

October 21st election. The question this election is very clear. who can you trust to help you and your family to get ahead the tagline that they've used from the beginning putting more money back into your pocket so that is all about taxes so first of all like the liberals we talked about yesterday they're attacking the the lower income bracket that everyone is taxed at by broad-based tax cut yeah exactly by reducing the rate at which you're taxed within that bracket from about 15 percent to 13.75 percent. Every Canadian taxpayer will see their income taxes go down. And those in the lowest tax bracket see the biggest proportional benefit of all. They're also handing out these tax credits.

Exactly what the Harper government did. They're bringing them back, three of them, for transit, for kids fitness, and kids learning, or arts, that kind of thing. Yeah, so you get a break if you send your kids to like an after-school soccer program, you get a break if you buy a MetroCard. And when we're talking about the broad-based tax credit, we're looking at about $850 a year for a two-income family. Yes. And then the other big sort of plank where taxes are concerned, and I think affordability is concerned, and I think affordability is concerned, and I know we'll talk about it more, but is repealing the carbon tax. So that's the other big message they have about, quote unquote, putting more money back into your pocket. You're

going to spend less money at the gas pump now. It makes virtually no contribution to the global fight against climate change. And it only makes life more expensive for Canadian families and small businesses. And, you know, one more thing we might want to talk about is home ownership. This is something Scheer's been talking about a lot. He promises this 30-year amortization on mortgages as opposed to 25, so that would lower your monthly payments. Yes, and that's going backwards, right? Because that had been changed to 25 when debt levels in the country had increased by a lot. So he's moving it back to 30 years to spread the money out over a longer period. And he's also going to look at the stress test, which has also been strengthened. And he's also going to, I believe, launch an inquiry into foreign ownership.

These shady dealings are inflating prices in already expensive markets, such as here in the GTA and in Vancouver. And they must come to an end. such as here in the GTA and in Vancouver. And they must come to an end. Okay, okay. And we should say, you know, this idea of a 30-year amortized mortgage, it's also controversial because some people say that it's going to have the effect of driving prices up again. So it's complicated, but...

Yeah, well, basically anything that makes it easier for people to buy homes right now could potentially drive the prices of those homes up. So definitely, though, responding to a call from people who are saying it's too hard to afford a home. You know, CHEER talks a lot about the economy as well, trying to improve the economy so that things are more affordable for you, so that you have an easier time paying your bills. And let's talk about a few other things that they're talking about when they talk about improving the economy. So a few things that I would highlight, it's not a huge chunk of the platform, but one that sticks out and is very obvious is basically

the desire to get the TMX pipeline built and other pipelines or other conduits by which oil can move to additional markets. We know that the issue is that oil is now just going to the United States. And as a result, there's a discount, the position of the Conservatives and actually the Liberals is that we're taking a loss at that. We could be basically bringing in more money to federal coffers and growing the economy. So he has a big promise about that, stopping the inflow of foreign oil as well. And then the other thing I would highlight is he's really one of the only parties to, and the Conservatives are one of the only parties, to talk about cutting red tape and making it easier in that respect for particularly

small businesses. It's the biggest complaint I hear from small business owners. The rat's nest of policies and processes that bog down businesses and slow growth, many of them outdated and out of step with reality. We'll cut red tape by 25 percent over four years. Right. And tell me more about that. Well, the idea being that this is in direct contrast to something the liberals did a few years ago when they kind of closed some tax loopholes that were really affecting small businesses in this country. Things around income splitting, for example. And there was a big uproar to that. Huge uproar. This was back in the days, before India, before SNC, when this was the big scandal. People were very mad about this, the idea that if you own a

small business, you could pay your spouse, for example. Yeah, they felt targeted. So the liberals had a justification for it. There's evidence that they were losing, you know, federal coffers were losing money from it. And these were the loopholes that they decided to close. The problem is there's a lot of other loopholes, particularly that corporations use and CEOs use that they had also pledged to look at, but they neglected to do anything about those. They're now saying in their platform that they're going to attack those coming up, but they didn't. Instead, they targeted these ones. And as a result, small businesses felt targeted. So these kinds of announcements from Scheer, particularly around cutting red tape, making things easier for small businesses, are designed to be in direct contrast to what happened a few years ago. I believe government should get out of the way and allow small businesses to do what they do best, create local prosperity and opportunities.

I'll never forget the people who helped me get my start. They're not the selfish, greedy tax cheats that Justin Trudeau thinks they are. And let's talk about that a little bit more, the idea that they are undoing some of the liberal policies. As you mentioned earlier, they're going to walk back on the carbon tax. Scheer just announced this morning, we're talking on Thursday, that he's going to cancel the carbon tax within his first 100 days. And what else are they promising to undo here? So two big things that I would highlight, big, marquee pieces of legislation that came at the

end of the liberals' term, but were very much focused on their climate change and environmental agenda. And that would be what we knew as Bill C-69 and Bill C-48. So a moratorium on tanker traffic in the north coast of B.C., as well as an overhaul of the way in which projects like pipelines are approved. So the Conservatives would do away with all that. I don't know to what degree. They haven't been super specific about it in the campaign. But prior to the campaign, they were saying, we just get rid of Bill C-69.

The results have been as depressing as they have been predictable. Two major pipelines cancelled. Trans Mountain on life support. Investment has left the country. Another issue that I want to talk about just because this is something that I've heard from people during this election season is the issue of abortion. So people have been concerned that perhaps the Conservative Party will legislate access to abortion in this country. There are, of course, MPs in the

Conservative Party who are against abortion. Andrew Scheer is pro-life. My personal position has always been open and consistent. I am personally pro-life. And, you know, look, there are groups in this country whose like explicit mandate is to help elect MPs who are against abortion. But I do want to be clear here. Andrew Scheer has said repeatedly that this is not an issue that he is going to reopen and that it's not an issue that the Conservative Party itself would legislate on. Yeah, I just think that we should be very clear. assert his personal position until a few weeks into the campaign. But he has now explicitly said that, yes, he's pro-life. But he has also said, and I remember interviewing him when he won the leadership and he said the same thing, that he will not reopen the debate. If he forms government, the Conservatives will not be there legislating on social issues

like, for example, abortion or same-sex marriage. As Prime Minister, I will oppose, I will vote against any measure that does attempt to do that. We are going to be focused on things that unite Canadians, unite our own team. So we're talking about a lot of what they want to roll back when it comes to the Liberals platform. But they are keeping a few things, including the Canada Child Benefit. Yes, yeah, they are, which is, I think, probably one of the more popular Liberal pieces of policy. And in fact, one of the ones that they often herald as having worked because there's evidence that it has lifted or at least begun to lift a number of Canadian children and their families out of poverty.

It's also popular. Like strategically, it's just very popular. Families love it. They get a big chunk of change. Yeah. You have a kid, you get some money. Yeah. So and I mean, the Harper government prior to that had a version of it that wasn't means tested.

So this is not necessarily only endemic to the liberals and their idea of how to help families out. So it's not surprising that they would keep it. Okay. Let's move on to health care. Yesterday we talked about health care. The liberals have sort of a pharmacare plan. They want to take critical steps towards pharmacare. The NDP has a full pharmacare plan. What are the

Conservatives saying in that area? They're saying no to pharmacare, universal pharmacare, single-payer pharmacare. They often cite a number of polls that are being conducted that show people who are covered are actually okay with their coverage right now. They say that they would address gaps, but they provide no details or costing on how they would do that. I will invest $1.5 billion in our first term to replace aging MRI machines and CT machines and increase the total number of machines in Canada's health care system. And now let's do climate because we're going to do this with all the parties. The Conservatives, like all the other parties, are pledging to meet Canada's stated goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Although we talked about yesterday, the Greens and the NDP are trying to go even further than that.

How are they doing on this front? OK, so first they are saying that their plan gives Canadians and Canada the best shot at meeting those targets. They don't promise, unlike the other, I mean, in a world where they're all breaking their promises, okay, but they don't explicitly promise to meet the targets, which I think is significant and kind of the lens that you can look at a lot of their climate policy through. So they're kind of doing the best they think will get us there, but they're not saying, hey, we guarantee that it's going to happen. That's a good point. And their tagline for it is technology, not taxes. In Canada, we can produce aluminum thanks to our hydroelectricity and technological advancements

at a fraction of the emissions for that same unit of production in China. It doesn't make sense to chase those jobs and investment here from Canada, only to see production move to other countries where emissions will actually go up. So by exporting our clean technology, advancements like carbon capture, we can do more to lower global emissions. What they propose, and it's very much similar and evocative of what we hear from Jason Kenney in Alberta and Doug Ford in Ontario, is that instead of looking at it on the consumption side, so the kind of way that the carbon tax works right now federally, they look at it on the heavy emitter side. And so they would essentially apply a carbon tax to heavy emitters, and they would

take the money paid into that and invest it in green technology. They would repeal the carbon tax, as we've discussed, and focus on other investments in technology. And just to point out that CBC recently did an analysis of all the parties' climate plans. And the Conservative plan right now would leave us even further behind reaching those government stated targets than any of the other parties. Yeah, based on the details available. And I would say I would highlight for a number of the plans, particularly the Liberals and the Conservatives, there is a lot of detail missing. for a number of the plans, particularly the liberals and the conservatives, there is a lot of detail missing. And the conservatives argue, well, the liberals never proposed the level of detail that they ended up enacting in the 2015 platform. But we don't know, for example, at what rate they're going to be taxed, where exactly the money would be funneled through, what kinds of

technology would be invested in, what the metrics are that they'll measure it by. Like all of that stuff is missing from the picture. So based on the lack of details, I think that's where a lot of the analysis is coming from, that it won't get us to the target. That they can conclude from what we've got right now. Okay, speed round. 15 seconds. What are some of the other big platform planks in the Conservative? Maybe not necessarily big, but two things that kind of stuck out for me during the whole campaign. in the Conservative. Maybe not necessarily big,

but two things that kind of stuck out for me during the whole campaign. The first is that they would make admission to national museums free. Yes. The other one is on the revenue side of things. So how are they going to pay for the multitude of promises that they've made? One of the ideas that they put forward

very early in the campaign was finding $1.5 billion to cut in corporate subsidies. Right now, the Liberal government gives taxpayers' dollars to wealthy executives, shareholders, and foreign companies.

This is as ridiculous as it is unacceptable. Really went hard on a message we've heard from the NDP, which is around corporate welfare and ending it, and something we've also heard from Maxime Bernier.

So there was a political strategy behind that announcement as well. Right, maybe get some of those People's Party of Canada votes. Or stop them from going there. Yeah, yeah. Look, yesterday we talked about what to keep in mind when you're going to the polls. And, you know, inevitably what came up when we were talking about the Liberals and the NDP is how much money all of these promises are going to cost, you know, ballooning deficits.

You hear Andrew Scheer talk about deficits a lot. He talks about carrying the burden and paying interest to banks because we borrowed so much money. If we do not get back to a responsible plan for treating Canadian taxpayers' dollars wisely, we will see those massive deficits threaten social programs and lead to massive tax hikes. The Conservative platform was recently costed.

You know, how are they doing on the costing front? So a couple of things that I would highlight. The first is that they are positioning their platform as the only real fiscally responsible one for Canadian voters. Like if you care about the public purse, you need to vote for them. Right. If you don't want to pass this debt on to your children. Yes. To be fair, they are promising to balance the budget in five years, like the Greens.

Those are the only two parties promising to do so. But if you go through their costing, which I have, like the nerd I am, you will see that it is almost a mirror image of what the liberals had proposed for the budget just last year. So budget 2019, if you line up the deficits in a row, and you put the conservative deficits that they're proposing over the next four years right under it, almost to the dollar, they're exactly the same. So it's disingenuous to claim that this is a budget or a platform of fiscal restraint. They are spending a lot of money. The difference to give them credit for is that they have come up with some things to

do to pay for what they're promising. But even with corporate subsidies, cutting foreign aid, but there are a few areas within what they're proposing that deserve more scrutiny. Like, we're going to cut $5 billion by 2024 a year of other operating expenses. And that includes consultants and office space. Like, is it just going to be cubicles and consultants? And they haven't described a particular cost to each of those items. So what the opposition is saying, what the liberals are saying is, well, this could be just like, you know, you can't find all these efficiencies. This could be just like Doug Ford. Maybe there's going to be a whole lot of other stuff tied up in there. This is definitely something that Justin Trudeau has been talking about a lot.

All the time. You're choosing, just like Doug Ford did, to hide your platform from Canadians and deliver cuts to services and cuts to taxes for the wealthy. In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Let's move on to the Green Party.

We're going to handle their platform a bit differently. They're essentially saying, like, look, we know we're not going to win this thing, but give us a chance to hold the balance of power. So let's talk about what they're promising should they get in. So the Greens put forth a very detailed platform and very detailed costing of that platform in an effort, I think, to address the questions that led into this campaign about whether or not they could be taken seriously on issues above and beyond climate. To lay out our platform, it covers a broad, broad suite of measures.

It is comprehensive. It speaks to social justice. What's ironic is as we circle back to the end of this campaign, because of their positioning in the polls, the focus is entirely back on what they're saying about climate. And that is because of exactly what you described, that she is explicitly, Ms. May, the leader of the party, explicitly stating that they hope to hold the balance of power

versus lead the government. So yes, I think I am the best qualified to be Prime Minister of Canada. I will say that out loud. I'll also say I don't think it's very likely. She's dealing in realism. They want a minority government and they want to try to move the Liberals towards a more ambitious climate plan. Exactly. I'm running to elect as many of these wonderful candidates as is possible so that a caucus of Green MPs can assist Canadians, particularly in a minority situation such as that that occurred under Lester B. Pearson. They want to move everybody towards a more ambitious climate plan. And so therefore, the conversation revolves entirely around climate again

because of sort of that mathematical equation. So what they're saying is, and what she has said is that she is willing to work with anyone, if they agree to the targets, number one, that have been set by her and agree to more stringent action on climate change. So she hasn't ruled out supporting any party. And I should say that these targets are, her targets are above what the government has set, above 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. She is in line with the IPCC, with the United Nations. Our target, 60% below 2005 levels by 2030 is exactly double what Stephen Harper put in place in May 2015, which the liberals initially said was too low, was weak, was unacceptable.

So to put this in perspective and to sort of picture what it might be like next week, if we are in a situation where she holds a balance of power, she is saying that the targets should be doubled. Therefore, the action taken should be increased enormously at a time when the targets as they stand are not even on track to being met. So the type of action that she is trying to lobby for will be drastic compared to what is happening right now. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, good or bad, but it will be a big difference from what we're seeing right now. And we're talking about banning fracking, ending imports on foreign oil, and opposing all fossil fuel projects. So like we're talking about the pipeline, the TMX pipeline, other pipelines here. This could get really interesting if this is a minority government, because Elizabeth May has said in principle that she will not work with any government that doesn't agree to these more stringent targets.

Like full stop, period. And so that's very interesting to me. Like what's she going to do if a government says, look, we'll come down a little bit here. Like we'll do a little bit more. Is she just going to stand her ground and say no unless you go like 60 below 2005 levels by 2030 you do not have our support and then what happens so i can relate to you exactly what she said to me because i thought the exact same thing and she said yes she will stand her ground i said are you worried at all about the backlash of forcing an election after we've just been through this month

of fun and she said yes i would be worried about the backlash, but I think it's the right thing to do. Nobody would want it, but that may be the best leverage we have to get one of the conventional big parties that has failed over and over again to address this issue appropriately to actually rethink it. Say, oh, okay, so what you're saying is I get it. If I want to be in power, I actually have to act on the climate crisis. So she is willing to make this a true red line for her. She also suspects, though, that the prospect of a potential election so soon might change the calculation for other parties,

meaning she feels like she'll have more leverage post-election. You know, what are you looking out for Monday night? So I think I'm watching to see how the trajectory of the last week impacts voting on Monday. And by that, I mean everything has changed in the last seven days. We went from a million conversations between you and I where we were like, what's changing? Nothing's changing. Nothing's moving. It was so stuck. And things are still stuck, but in a very different way. So the liberals and the conservatives have basically an equal share of the vote, but a lower share than they had a month ago. And as a result, they don't have enough seats right now to win a majority, at least according to the projections, while the bloc and the NDP have ascended in

popularity. And as a result, they could very, very easily hold the balance of power. Massive bloc search in Quebec. They could take 30 or 40 seats now. It's unbelievable. Yeah, change the game completely. And so that scenario has informed the way in which every campaign has approached the last week here. And by that, I mean, the Conservatives are saying, we're the only possibility for majority government, and we're the only way to stop this coalition of liberals and NDPers from forming. The NDP is saying, whoa, whoa, whoa, you're not going to waste your vote with me. Just send it this way, and I'll hold whatever government is there to account and make it more progressive. And the liberals are saying, no, if you want to stop the conservatives, we're your only choice. So the question that all leaves me with is whether

or not that works on voters and to what degree it does. Like, are people going into the ballot box on Monday thinking, I just want to keep this guy out of office, whoever that guy is? Or are they going into the ballot box thinking, I want to vote my conscience? Right. So, I mean, basically what we've been doing the last two days is laying out the platforms of each of the parties with the hopes that people might decide which party they their hearts with. Right. That is actually not what everybody will be doing on Monday. There are 60 ridings that are very much in swing here and maybe more now. And strategic voting is like a real thing. It's a real thing, but it's really difficult to measure its impact in past elections.

And there's so many theories over there. Does it swing three points? Does it swing five points for various parties? Will it swing any points? And I honestly don't know. I've had so many different conversations trying to figure that out with people who are not you and I and not in politics. And the sense I get is a lot of people want to vote with their heart, but the messaging over the last seven days might also be working to a degree.

Right, right, right. Okay, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens on Monday. Thank you so much. Thanks, Jamie. Okay, that is it for our pre-election coverage. Of course, Vashie and I will be back with you on Tuesday morning to tell you everything you need to know about the results. But before I let you go today, I do really, really hope that you will make it to the polls on Monday. I was watching The National the other night

and saw this piece. They were interviewing former Syrian refugees who were voting in Canada for the first time. It reminded me how lucky we are to live in this country. And we'll end the show today with some of what they had to say. People in Syria, 400,000, 500,000 people died because they wanted the simple right of voting.

And you don't want to take 10 minutes of your day to go down and vote in a place? That's privilege. And I would really encourage you to change that mindset. I'm so happy. For the first time I see a ballot with different choices and I get to vote secretly and then cast my own vote into the box. This is amazing. Democracy is awesome and it's so empowering. Okay, Frontburner comes to you from CBC News and CBC Podcasts. The show is produced by Shannon Higgins, Imogen Burchard, Chris Berube, and Elaine Chao.

Derek Vanderwyk is our sound designer and technician, and Billy Heaton and Oronde Williams helped us out this week too. Thank you so much. Our music is by Joseph Chabison, a boombox sound. The executive producer of Front Burner is Nick McCabe-Locos. I'm Jamie Poisson. Have a wonderful weekend and see you all on Monday. The executive producer of FrontBurner is Nick McCabe-Locos. I'm Jamie Poisson.

Have a wonderful weekend and see you all on Monday. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.