Front Burner - What’s behind the Israel-Hamas ceasefire?

Episode Date: January 16, 2025

Israel and Hamas signed a deal for a ceasefire set to begin Sunday January 19th that will see the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners in Israel and the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The news was met with celebrations in Gaza where Palestinians have been suffering under a brutal Israel offensive since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Tens of thousands are dead, more than a million displaced and much of the strip is destroyed. Ceasefire negotiations have dragged on in Qatar between Israel, Hamas, the U.S. and other countries for months. So why has an agreement finally been reached now? Chaim Levinson, senior diplomatic correspondent at Ha’aretz, joins us to parse through the details of the deal, how it was reached and what could happen next.

The next thing I know is I wake up and I just remember like something bad happened to me last night. Somebody hurt me. This is Carrie Lowe's story. Carrie did everything quote unquote right. She reported right away. Her legal team says police systematically mishandled her case. Meanwhile her attackers remain at large. I'm Maggie Raher and this is Carrie Lowe Versus, available now on CBC Listen and everywhere

you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi I'm J.B. Poisson. People in Gaza were celebrating last night after the news of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. It was a desperately welcomed reprieve after 15 months of brutal war. More than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed according to the health Ministry in Gaza, though some estimates, including one recently published in The Lancet, put the death toll much higher. Nearly two million people have been displaced.

The scope of the devastation is really hard to wrap your head around. Critical infrastructure from water lines to hospitals destroyed. A UN report said it could take 80 years to rebuild all the raised homes. The deal was brokered in Qatar, where negotiators have been trying to get an agreement since terms were presented many months ago. Under the deal, Hamas is expected to release 33 Israeli hostages taken during their attack on October 7, 2023. That saw more than 1,200 Israelis killed and 250 taken captive, according to Israel. In exchange, Israel will free

hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The outgoing and incoming US presidents are both claiming credit for who finally got it done. Here's Joe Biden. Well, you know, this is the exact framework of the deal I proposed back in May. Exact. And we got the world to endorse it. Trump said in a statement yesterday that, quote, this epic ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our historic victory in November.

But there are still so many unanswered questions over Gaza's future and whether this fragile peace will hold. To parse through the details of that deal, how it was reached and what could happen next, I'm talking to Haim Levinson, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent at Ha'arens. [♪ Music Fades Out, Music Fades In, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Fades Out, Music Haaretz. Hi, I want to thank you very much for being here today. I know this is a very busy day for you. I wonder if we could start with you taking us through the details of the ceasefire deal.

I understand exchanges will be done in phases. Yeah, we just heard from the Prime Minister of Qatar that the ceasefire will start on Sunday. And the first hostages that will be released by Hamas will be also on Sunday. We have 40 days of a ceasefire. In that time, we'll be released 33 hostages. By the way, the exact number of the hostages is still negotiated right now in Qatar, the exact list. We don't know yet how many alive and how many are bodies, but Hamas has an interest to bring much more hostages alive because it will get more prisoners. The exact schedule I don't know until now because Hamas says he needs time to go around Gaza and collect

all the hostages from the place he hid them. He cannot do it now because of the war situation in Gaza, but on Sunday when the ceasefire will start, he will be able to roam around for free in Gaza. He asked the last ceasefire for 12 hours a day that Israel cannot send airplanes for surveillance in Gaza in order to find all the hostages. So I assume it's a mechanism that is together with Qatar, United States and the Egyptians that Hamas will update who is going to be released tomorrow and then it will be released to Egypt probably. At the same time,

Israel will release prisoner in exchange. Could you just tell me a bit more about the prisoners? Israel is going to, the details are not published yet, but Israel will release all the women and all the kids, all the teenagers that are the Israeli prisoners. teenagers, not in the Israeli prisoners. For hostage, Israel will release 30 Palestinian prisoners and hundreds of Gazians that were arrested during the war and are not connected directly to the war. There were reports today about some sticking points that held up the talks. Could you just tell me what they were? I would not say it's serious. It's a lot of questions about the mechanism and how exactly being forced. Very small details, but not so important. The big picture is clear. We are going into hostage deals for 42 days. And during these 42 days, the most important part is

negotiations about permanent ceasefire. And it's a complicated negotiations. And hopefully it will lead for the end of war in Gaza. What do we know right now about what happens after the 42 days? Look, it depends who you're asking. And it's a complicated question because it's a complicated answer also. The main issue is under dispute between Israel and Hamas. Israel is not willing that Hamas will stay in Gaza and keep on in Gaza. I assume Hamas is not voluntarily willing to give up their power that they fought for

in the last 15 months. It's a hard and complicated issuance situation. Now into this question is coming in the United States together with an Arab coalition that includes Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. We have seen a momentum that started to build in the last month and we kept pushing for that, working together very closely with our partners. And I can say that what we have seen from the US in the past few days, seeing a collaboration transcending both administration was a clear demonstration for the commitment of the US to reach to that deal. But they're coming in with a lot of money and the rationale is going like this. And during the 42 days, we will end the war in Gaza. People in Gaza can breathe a little bit,

can go out of hiding and food can flow in easily, a little bit of starting to replace the infrastructure in Gaza. And this Arab coalition will say to Hamas, look, we are willing to invest a hundred of billions of dollars in rebuilding Gaza. In Gaza, the situation in Gaza, people understand, most of the northern part of Gaza, people cannot live in there. There is nothing there. It's just rubble and collapsed buildings.

There are no kind of infrastructures, no water, no electricity, no sewage, nothing. Only to take out the garbage, the buildings, it would take months to evacuate the area to rebuild it. So this Arab coalition is going to tell Hamas, we will do it. We will give hope to the people of Gaza, but you need to move. We will have like so kind of Arab-Islamic unity government that you will not be in control of Gaza, so the Americans will agree to it and the Israelis will agree to it. And from your side, you will get some Arab assistance to rebuild Gaza. And just how likely do you think that is, that that is what is going to happen and that Hamas will agree to that?

It's a good question. I don't have the answer. And it's a lot of wishful thinking from the parties. Look, we expect from the parties to adhere to the agreement. We expect the parties to stay committed to what they have committed themselves to in that agreement. But I believe that it all depends on the parties of the agreement and acting in good faith in that agreement in order to ensure that no collapse happening to that deal. And it's a complicated issue because it includes normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

It's including involving the PLO and it includes the Egyptians and it's including the people in Gaza. So I cannot tell you that this process will be ended as expected. But on the other hand, what is the other option? Continuing the war in Gaza, like after 42 days that the people in Gaza, I think the people in Gaza, really suffering from the war. We tell them that the war is going to continue for what? What is going to be achieved? You've written about the role Saudi Arabia has played in the negotiations. Israel has been seeking normalization with them from before October 7th. The Saudis have asked for Israel to recognize a Palestinian state for that to happen.

And how did the Saudis contribute to the deal that was reached here? Could you tell me more about that? Saudis are part of this Arab coalition together with Qatar, United Arab Emirates in Egypt. And their role is going to be in rebuilding Gaza. And they have a lot of money, not Qatar is a poor country, but Saudi Arabia also has a huge wallet. And the Americans want to bring them in. And

Saudi Arabia will say, look, we didn't abandon the Palestinian cause. We are going to bring Palestinian state. Israel is committed for that. And our main focus is helping the people in Gaza. We have the expertise, we have the money, we have the ability, we have the will to go into Gaza and rebuild it for the people of Gaza. And this is the world of Saudi Arabia. And it's also part of the bigger picture. Saudi Arabia wants the arms deal with the United States in order to have that they need to recognize Israel in other terms because many, many US senators

will not agree to the arm deals without any kind of recognition in Israel. And hopefully, from the US perspective, it will launch arms deal. The last one was $300 billion, if I remember correctly. One thing I wanted to ask you about, my understanding is that the deal that was reached today is essentially the same deal that was presented by the Biden administration in the spring or the summer, right?

And so why is it just getting signed now? Take me through that. I'd say exactly the same words, but detail here and detail there, it's the same deal. And Netanyahu didn't want the deal in the last few months because he has a huge political problem passing this deal. And his main excuse was he wasn't willing to withdraw from the border between Israel and Egypt, between Gaza and Egypt, in order to prevent weapons coming in under the ground from Egypt to Gaza like it was in the past.

The Philadelphia corridor is a narrow strip of land running along Gaza's border with Egypt. But it's very strategic because Israel says that Hamas has used this area along the border to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip. The corridor has become perhaps the central issue in preventing a ceasefire at this stage. Israel moved into the area in May, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that Israel has to retain control of this entire border strip. For an open-ended period, he is not willing to relinquish control. This is a major sticking point because Hamas is demanding a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

So for a few months I said I will not agree to the deal, that it includes withdrawing from the Gaza-Egyptian border. By the way, this condition, it's not Hamas demand, it's the Egyptians demand. They didn't want Israel between them and Hamas, and I can understand that. And what has happened that the people of Trump came in, even Trump is not yet the president, I must say that the Biden administration invited the Trump people to come into negotiations because they said, we will not be here to fulfill all the American agreements.

You will need to be here, so we will not do anything without you. The Trump people came in and they forced Netanyahu to take the deal and stop stacking it and detail here and detail there. It was very harsh discussions with Netanyahu, especially envoy to the Middle East, Stephen Witkoff, who is very close to President Trump. It was here in Israel on Saturday. He had a hard conversation with Netanyahu and he told him, take the deal now.

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I don't even know if I like that guy. On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. I take your point that pressure from Donald Trump tipped the scales here, but this 15-month war has been dragging on with significant losses for Hamas and their allies, including Hamas leader Yaya Sinwar in Gaza and Hassan Nasrallah, who was the leader of Hezbollah. And not to mention, as we've talked about, much of northern Gaza is completely flattened. So is it also possible here that Netanyahu simply got enough of what he wanted out of this military campaign to finally agree to reach the decision?

I don't think it's Netanyahu's 100% politics. This deal was able to reach in last May, in last July. Many, many people of Israeli soldiers will be saved. Many hostages' lives will be saved. Many lives of of Israeli soldiers will be saved, many hostages' lives will be saved, many lives of people in Gaza will be saved. Performance Politico, he has a very hard right-wing coalition in government, people he invented and invited into his government. And by the way, they are still strongly opposed this deal also. But in May-June, he didn't want to take the deal and maybe

risk himself in elections because his right-wing coalition will resign and drag Israel into another election. And now it doesn't have anything between Trump and his coalition, chosen Trump. That's it. I don't see any rational reason why not to take the deal. No one understands what's the difference between now and July. What changed? What changed? What kind of reaction are you seeing in Israel from both the people and the government on this deal finally being reached?

The far right wing is against the deal because the really far right wing, they want to evacuate all the people from Gaza and rebuild settlements in Gaza and make Gaza an Israeli territory. You have some people on the right that are against the deal because some kind of, let's say, we are releasing too many, too much prisoners that will encourage other kidnaps in the future, like Iqyat-Sinwar was released in the last prisoners exchange for the Yirach Alit in 2011. So it's a huge mistake. I think most of the people in Israel are supporting the deal, but I think also we need to wait to see what exactly will happen.

How many hostages will come back alive? How many will be dead? If the ceasefire will be kept? If it's the end of the war? What will be in Gaza in the future? So I think it's too early to judge the public opinion. The first public reaction is supportive of Tredir. So we are now 15 months into this war. And in addition to Gaza, Israel has invaded southern Lebanon, has advanced into the Golan Heights

in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. And as we're speaking now, what does Israel control of both Gaza and beyond? The war in Lebanon ended. Even I think Israel need to evacuate in the coming few weeks from the small parts they still hold in the southern Lebanon. And the deal that was agreed in Lebanon, Israel had 60 days to evacuate. The 68 days didn't finish yet. Israel entered the buffer zone between Israel and Syria that was agreed after the 73 war. And took over all the military equipment that was there. I think Israel wants to see

where exactly the new Syria regime is going and if it can be reliable, that would keep the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. Bashar Assad, with all his disadvantages, Him and his father kept the ceasefire and didn't launch a new war towards Israel. In Gaza, it's still to see, but I think Israel is going to evacuate and withdraw from all the Dari and Gaza. I think the main focus of Netanyahu is achieving the peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. Hopefully, this this disagreement will also encourage the Israeli economy. The Israeli economy got a huge blow, of course, from the war.

The economic situation in Israel is not so good. And he's hoping that opening the markets to Saudi Arabia will assist that. And just final question for you today. I know we talked earlier about how the Trump administration is very aggressive in their approach to Netanyahu here. And you know, there were times that kind of strong arm him into this deal. But where do you think this relationship is headed between the United States and Israel?

Trump is a very popular figure in Israel. Maybe it's the country in the world that is the most popular political figure. And as Netanyahu supporters, I think Netanyahu is more popular for Netanyahu himself. It's completely different from Biden or previous American presidents like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton that was president during Netanyahu first terms 25 years ago, maybe 30 years ago. I think it's an interesting situation for Netanyahu because Netanyahu's claim of fame is I understand the United States.

I know how to handle the United States. I have connections in the United States. I know how to maneuver inside the Congress, the Senate, the media, the influences, the money and the presidents, the media, the influencers, the money, and the presidents, etc. He enjoyed politically for picking up the fight with Biden that is not popular in Israel and for sure with Blinken that is even I would say hated in Israel. Now it's a completely different situation. He cannot have a fight with Trump and it's all about how much Trump will be aggressive, how much will be forceful in order to achieve his planning.

As I wrote today, it will go to the finish line of having the peace agreement with Saudi Arabia because that's what Trump wants. And Netanyahu cannot go to Congress behind the back of Trump like he did to Biden a half year ago and he did to Obama in 2015, that days are ended. And I think it's a new situation for Netanyahu. And it's a complicated situation, Netanyahu. We still don't understand, but Trump is not yet in office until Monday. And we don't know how the second term will be different from the first term. The first term, it needed to be re-elected.

We cannot predict it. I don't know if someone can predict it. So we need time to wait and see. Haim, I wanna thank you so much for this. You also just provided some really important context there that was so helpful. So thank you for your time. Thank you, have a nice day.

All right, that is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.