Front Burner - Why is France’s far right surging toward power?

Episode Date: July 4, 2024

After his centrist coalition suffered a humiliating loss to the far right in European elections early last month, French President Emanuelle Macron called snap elections for France’s own Parliament in hopes of pushing back.Instead, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally continued their momentum and won the first round of voting last Sunday.So will Macron’s election gamble backfire? Why are the far right surging? And what would it mean for Europe and the world if they took power in the final round of voting this weekend?Don Murray is a freelance journalist currently in Southern France. For years, he covered Europe for CBC as a reporter and documentary maker.For transcripts of this series, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. This was a political earthquake and we cannot simply ignore it and proceed with business as usual. That was French President Emmanuel Macron speaking through a translator last month following the European Parliament elections in which his coalition was dealt this humiliating blow in the polls.

His Ensemble coalition finished a distant second to Marine Le Pen's far right Ralliement National or National Rally Party with less than half of their votes. In response, the French president called this snap election the nation's first in nearly three decades. French newspaper Le Monde referred to this decision as choosing to play France at poker, essentially a way to call the bluff of the French electorate, to ask whether the country is truly ready for its first far-right government since the Second World War. And on Sunday, in the first two rounds of this parliamentary election, Macron's bet seemed to backfire, with his centrist coalition actually coming in third, and the right with a strong lead. The second and final round of voting is this Sunday.

So why is the far-right right surging despite a troubling history? What would they do with power? And what would a win mean for Europe? Don Murray is a freelance journalist who's currently in the south of France. For years, he covered Europe for the CBC as a reporter and documentary maker. Hi, Don. Thank you so much for coming on. My pleasure. So in the European Union elections last month, which is where countries vote for their representatives in Brussels, Macron's centrist party took a stinging defeat and the right, as I mentioned, surged. The National Rally Party led by Marine Le Pen is on course to win a record 32% of the vote

in the elections for the European Parliament. That is more than double the coalition which supports President Macron. Macron quickly called the snap election for France's own parliament. I decided to put back in your hands the choice of our parliamentary future by the vote. Why did he argue an election was a necessary reaction to his political rival doing so well? Like, why do this? Well, that's a question that his own prime minister and several of his own senior ministers were asking themselves. They weren't consulted. He didn't consult anybody but a very small group of unofficial councillors around him. But his general view is that he felt that, as he put it

apparently to advisers in the last couple of days, he had to pierce the abscess. And the abscess is the growth of the Rallyement National under Marine Le Pen. The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger for our nation, but also for Europe, for France's position in Europe and in the world. Yes, the far right is both the result of the impoverishment of the French and the downgrading of our country. So, at the end of this day, I cannot act as if nothing had happened. Now, the fact is that it's been growing, that party, ever since he became the president. He's fought two presidential elections against Marine Le Pen,

and in each election, her vote grew and continued to grow in the European elections. Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron appearing with his wife, celebrating a decisive victory over the far-right's Marine Le Pen, winning by a landslide margin of about 30 points. French President Emmanuel Macron has won a second term defeating far-right challenger Marine Le Pen, but the margin is projected to be closer than their first face-off in 2017. The best that outsiders can discern is that he thought, in holding snap elections, that somehow people would step back

and that the vote of the Rallye Monationale would drop. In fact, it stabilized. His own party barely increased its vote and the left, the union of the left, held on to a very large chunk of votes. And so this was not at all what one assumes he thought he was going to see as a result. Right. This is essentially a gamble that has backfired. Fair for me to say. Well, it's a gamble. And he spent his whole career gambling. There's no question about that. I mean, he entered politics basically by rolling the dice and organizing what amounted to a coup d'etat against his own leader, who was the French President François Hollande. He was, at that point, Macron was what amount President François Hollande. He was,

at that point, Macron was what amounted to the Deputy Minister of Finance, not even a senior minister at that point. And he simply launched his own party and knocked Hollande out, knowing that he was not popular and that somebody might be able to fill the vacuum. He's basically run his whole career in politics in the last seven years, taking chances and basically rolling the dice against the far right. He sees that his mission to somehow destroy the far right, but he's certainly not succeeding as we speak. Democracy has spoken. The French people have placed national rally and its allies on top and practically erased President Macron's bloc. It might be worth noting here, he hasn't actually put his own job on the line, right, by calling this vote at least directly,

because he's the president and presidential elections are separate in France. And this election will decide the seats in parliament, right? So, I mean, it affects him, but it doesn't necessarily directly affect his job. Fair? So, I mean, it affects him, but it doesn't necessarily directly affect his job. Fair? No, the president in France, under the Fifth Republic, which was set up by General de Gaulle in 1958, the president in France is all but an elected monarch. But under the president is a legislature which names a prime minister and a cabinet. And in effect, the president himself usually names the prime minister in the cabinet, since he usually has a working majority. This is not the case now, and it may be even more so after the elections on Sunday. But the president is, in theory, above the legislature.

And basically, the prime minister reports to him and does his bidding. That's how it's supposed to be. It may not necessarily be the case. There have been a couple of cases in which opposing parties have basically won elections, legislative elections, and have cohabited, as they say in France, with the president. They have been difficult times, but they basically, in both cases, the government was able to function. So there's very much a scenario in which the National Rally Party forms a majority in Parliament and there is a prime minister appointed from that party that would have to cohabitate with Macron after Sunday.

That's exactly right. If that were the case, if the National Rally, that Anima Nationale, actually got 279 MPs, a majority in Parliament, they then would be in a position to name the prime minister. And they've said they would name Jordan Bardella, who is a 28-year-old, MPs, a majority in Parliament, they then would be in a position to name the Prime Minister. They've said they would name Jordan Bardella, who is a 28-year-old, if you will, number two to Marine Le Pen, they would name him as the Prime Minister. I wish to be a Prime Minister of daily life. My priorities will be protecting, purchasing power, re-establishing order and security everywhere within our borders and, of course, taking control of our immigration. But it may not be the case because after initial

confusion and arguments in the camp of the president and of the left-wing parties, they have come together with a strategy and basically have organized themselves so that in 221 of the ridings in which there are three or possibly even four candidates still available, in all of those ridings, either the president's party's candidate or the party on the left has withdrawn its candidates. So that it's become a two-horse race in all of those ridings. And the hope is, on the part of Macron and his supporters, that in a two-horse race in all of those ridings. And the hope is, on the part of Macron and his supporters, that in a two-horse race, they would be able to defeat the national rally candidate. Right. This is all part of the gamble.

Yes. It's a very complicated French minuet that takes place in these elections. You know, to understand the significance of the surge of the Rallye Monde Nationale, the National Rallye Party, I'm wondering if we could spend a moment on the origins of the party here. So it started as the National Front by leader Marine Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. And why were he and the party known widely as very racist and anti-Semitic? Well, Jean-Marie Le Pen was an officer in the French army in the Algerian war, and he actually boasted of torturing Algerians that the French captured. He also is on record on several occasions as denying that, for example, the Holocaust took place in the manner that is generally understood. He's been convicted in French courts of Holocaust denial. He surrounded himself with ex-SS officers, French SS officers

from the Second World War. So he has a distinctly bad odor. And because of that, a large, large majority of the country didn't want to vote for him. Having said that, he was still able to garner 10 to 15% of the vote when he was running as the leader of the National Front, got himself elected to Parliament, got others elected to Parliament, into the European Parliament. What has happened is that his daughter, when she took over, has worked pretty carefully and pretty steadily to try and soften the edges of the National Front and changing the name for one thing

and, in effect, trying to move out some of the worst elements of the party so that it couldn't be attacked on that basis. France's Front National Party has suspended founder Jean-Marie Le Pen over inflammatory remarks amid an ongoing feud with current party leader, his daughter, Marine. Mr. Le Pen refused to attend a party disciplinary hearing after once again minimizing the Holocaust. I speak freely, and this shocks some people, he says.

Having said that, this is a party that's very much anti-immigration, talks about, in fact, proposes a new law that would, in effect, create two levels of French citizenship. And if you have dual citizenship, if your parents were born in another country, then you wouldn't be eligible for many posts in the French government, according to them, because you wouldn't really be as considered to be a first-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections.

Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your

partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Cups. You know, I understand that you are essentially in Marine Le Pen country right now, right? And so can you tell me a little bit about where the support for Le Pen and the party comes from? Why are the people drawn to this party in such large numbers right now? Well, I'm in the south of France in an area that was largely agricultural, an area of small cities, that is to say cities of 10,000 to maybe 100,000, in which people have suffered over the last many years, actually, much more so than in, say, Paris or Lyon, the big French cities.

And also, they feel left out. They feel like Paris, which is considered to be sort of a negative force, the government in Paris doesn't think of them, doesn't deal with them. And on top of that, this is an area that has a lot of North African, African immigration. These are people who work as agricultural workers, were brought in to do all sorts of menial work and have stayed. Their families were born in France, but there's

tremendous tension involved between the communities, if you will. And people, when I talk to them, and literally all the neighbors that we have, I would say that two-thirds of them are ready to vote for the National Le Rallyement National. And they talk about the fact that they've been ignored by Paris, that the French government is far too keen on Europe itself. They're very suspicious of Europe. They're very suspicious of immigration policies. They don't feel that Macron himself is anything but an arrogant elitist and has no interest in them, but only in the elites in other parts of the country. And in this area, you had 45, 50% of the voters in the first round

voting for the national rally. These were huge numbers, and they're liable to be the same in the second round. The sentiments of being ignored you know, ignored, you know, they remind me a lot of what was happening during the Yellow Vest protests. When working class people from the countryside rose up in response to a fuel tax increase, President Emmanuel Macron announced he would repeal the tax. But it's too late. That feeling first sparked the movement. Then it grew with demands for better salaries and pensions. And now, some want nothing less than to overthrow the government. Perhaps a lot of these people would have been aligned with that, right?

Oh yes, I mean, they say, people I know say, oh yes, I was part of that. I joined up almost immediately. I think you can draw a straight line from that, the yellow vests, through the problems occasioned by the pandemic in France, in which, and I have to say, again, many of the people that I know here refused to be vaccinated. They considered it was some sort of a conspiracy hatched by the government in Paris and that it was dangerous and that would cause them more problems than it would solve. And from that, you move on to the situation you have now in which a large numbers of people, and this is more than it just is, this area or in the north

mining region, the north zone, which people lost most of their jobs in the last 40 years. But it's more than that. There was an exit poll done and one of the questions asked was, what was the main reason you voted? And 54% of the people said the main reason they voted was because they disliked Macron. Now that's a powerful indication of the problem that he has. One thing that I did want to ask you about is that it's also my understanding that a lot of young people are voting for the National Rally Party. The head of the youth wing, Monson Lefebvre, thinks he knows why they're striking a chord in his region. Everything is increasingly re-centralized.

People are forced to use their cars. Prices of fuel and electricity have gone up, especially for students. I'm drawn more to the national rally. They speak the truth. They don't make false promises. Amongst all the parties, it's the national rally that comes closest to ensuring my security. It's really about uncontrolled immigration.

And you mentioned Jordan Bardella before, Le Pen's young protégé, right? I've seen a bunch of his TikToks. And just, I wonder if you could talk to me a little bit more about how it has come to be that this party has captured the attention of so many young people. You have to assume that Marine Le Pen took a look at what took place in Italy with Giorgio Meloni and decided to model her party and her campaign along those lines. model her party and her campaign along those lines. Maloney, in effect, took first place from a much more strident leader, Salvini, and basically was able to steer her party to the top position in Italy, and she became prime minister. What Marine Le Pen has done, and because she's quite combative, what she's done is found a much smoother young man. Many of his opponents suggest that he's smooth, but also empty. But that's a separate question. But a smoother young

man who doesn't frighten people at all. And several people that I talk to here say, people, women, men, young people particularly say, oh, yeah, he's very likable. I like the way he talks to us. He doesn't threaten us. And the contrast is with Macron, who is, everybody considers to be extraordinarily intelligent, but equally extraordinarily arrogant. I'm not saying that there's like a direct one-to-one comparison to be made. But, you know, listening to you talk about the disillusionment, how people are feeling in France, you know, how some young people are feeling in France as well. You know, I can't help but think about what's happening here in Canada with our own leader, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who is very unpopular right now. And do you think that there are legitimate comparisons to be made here between the two leaders?

I think it's entirely possible. Sure. You have, in both cases, leaders who came in as young, fresh faces who promised change, who promised a new way of doing politics and have, in effect, been found out, or at least many voters regard what they're doing and the way they're doing it as to be basically the old politics dressed up in new clothes. Both of them have been leaders for a very long time. Trudeau is coming up on nine years, and Macron is now into his eighth year. And at some point, and in the case of Macron, it's been two years since his poll numbers, his satisfaction numbers dropped from about 40 to below 30, 28 to 27%. And they've just hit a lower number and they haven't moved since then. And to a certain extent, that's the same problem that Trudeau has. And when you hit that,

if you will, that number, and it continues month after month, you have a major problem. And in both cases, both men look at the numbers, but don't actually believe them. They still think that they're capable of changing people's minds. They may not be able to do that. Before we go today, I wonder if we could zoom out a little bit and talk for a second about the impact of France's shift to the right on Europe as a whole. So, you know, what would it mean for Europe if France on Sunday elected its first far-right government since the Second World War, or possibly in centuries? Well, it would probably be an earthquake, perhaps only a modest earthquake, but certainly an earthquake of some description.

You're talking about the country that helped form the European Union 60 odd years ago, along with Germany. It would then be led by a party that is very suspicious, I mean, openly suspicious of all things European. It would be led by a party that for years was financed directly by a Russian bank. National Front leader Marine Le Pen is a regular visitor to Moscow. She admitted that the party had taken an $11 million loan from Russian-owned First Czech Russian Bank, supporting far-right... ...countout to Putin and his people for many years, right up until the beginning of the Ukrainian war, the

invasion. And it probably would soften very much the French approach to supporting Ukraine at that point. It would be huge. The whole question of immigration would be thrown open again. I mean, basically, the Rallye Mon National talks about closing French borders. That's basically what it wants to do. And in fact, deporting people who are here in some cases, in many cases, legally, but in tenuous situations. So these would be huge changes and difficult changes for the rest of many other countries in Europe to support. But on the other hand, you would also then have Hungary, Italy,

France, sitting, basically, looking at both Europe and the world from the same point of view, which is very, very skeptical point of view about Europe, for sure. And just lastly, Don, you know, somebody who has covered politics for a very long time in France, what do you think it means for Macron specifically to lose to the far right, given how he came into office? I would say that at the moment, it is definitely a major defeat whether or not the national rally gets a majority in parliament. And I think possibly the betting now is that it might fall short of a majority, which would basically create a situation where the country

might be very difficult to govern in. There wouldn't be a functioning majority, which would leave the president basically having lost his bet to be able to create a situation, create conditions in which legislation that he wants passed would be passed. In any case, he is seen as the man who gambled on pushing back the national rally and boxing them in. And it's not clear that he's done that at all. In fact, most people in the country think that he's failed in that. But he's a gambler and he may try some other gamble down the line. I mean, there are other possible people talk openly now about him possibly simply resigning, which would be astounding, but entirely in tune with his style of politics. Okay.

Don, that was really interesting. Thank you so much for coming by. We really appreciate it. That's my pleasure. All right. That is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.