Front Burner - Why the Alberta election race is neck and neck

Episode Date: May 1, 2023

Two women who have both served as Alberta premier are the leading candidates in a tight race to run the province. The United Conservative Party’s Danielle Smith, is facing rival Rachel Notley of the NDP. Elise von Scheel, provincial affairs reporter for CBC Calgary, explains why the race is shaping up to be a very close one. And how the changing demographics of Calgary could be a huge factor. For transcripts of this series, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Alex Panetta, in for Jamie Poisson. For the first time in more than 50 years, Alberta has an election that at the outset looks like a tight race. It's the main reason I put my name forward for leader and premier. My most important goal was to ensure that we had stability and that we had security.

We are going to make sure that we put our economy on the right path and we create long-term, sustainable jobs for Albertans all across this province that they can count on today and well into the future. On May 29th, Danielle Smith of the United Conservative Party is up against Rachel Notley of the NDP. Both have already been Premier of Alberta, which means they come with experience. It also means they come with baggage. As for Rachel Notley and the NDP, they will do whatever their bosses, Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau, say they should do. Where do you think they got the idea for just transition and carbon taxes and emissions caps? They got it from Rachel Notley herself when she was in government. We just cannot afford to go back. We cannot. Our public health care system is something that's so important to us. It is one of the greatest gifts that we have given to each other as Albertans and

Canadians. And I promise you this, we will not let Danielle Smith and the UCP tear it down. To talk about what's changed in Alberta and why this election is so close, I'm joined by Elise Von Scheele. She's the provincial affairs reporter for CBC Calgary. Hi, Elise. Hi. hi elise hi so the reds dropped today uh why is it so remarkable to go into a campaign with a neck and neck race between these two main parties it's a an interesting kind of first test as to whether the ndp could beat a united right. So for a long, long time in Alberta, over 40 years, we had a dynasty of conservative parties. They were unbeaten. They were separated at that time. We didn't have a united conservative party. We had the progressive conservatives and the wild rose. And then in 2017, after a really, really resounding victory by the NDP in

2015 that kind of turned Alberta politics on its head. Everyone was going, like, what's happened? It was kind of a shocking moment. Take a look at this. Something most Canadians probably never thought they'd see. Not just an NDP government in Alberta, but a strong majority. More than four decades of progressive conservative rule over. In 2017, the two conservative parties decided to merge.

Alberta is way more important than the egos or resentments, labels or divisions that have accumulated over the past decade. It's about unifying conservatives and it cannot be based on a principle of gaining power for power's sake. It must be about more than that. Saying, you know, it looks like the NDP is coming up as a strong showing. It looks like they're going to stick around for a while. We should unite to make this a little bit easier on the conservative side to form another government. And so in this election, what we're seeing so far in the polling is a really, really tight race, like you mentioned previously, the difference in seats between the governing party and the next party was the smallest margin was 15 seats, which is not close at all. And in this race, from what we're seeing in the polls, it could come down to two or three seats. So it's going to be a nail biter for sure.

come down to two or three seats. So it's going to be a nail biter for sure. So is this, I mean, your opinion, the new normal or is it just an anomaly because of, you know, the fractures in the right wing over the last few years? Well, what's interesting about this particular election, it's the first one in a while where it has truly or will truly be a two-party race. In previous legislatures, we had the Alberta Party, which is really kind of seen as the centrist party. In Alberta, we had, you know, liberal MLAs, the two conservative parties. In this election, really, nobody's showing up on the polls and nobody's really showing up except for the NDP and the UCP. So that is a bit of a new, weird, normal. You know, after the United Conservative Party won in 2019, of course,

the question became what's going to happen to the NDP? Can they stick around? And the United Conservative Party is still trying to figure out how to meld this uneasy marriage of two conservative leaning parties, but ones that really at their base don't quite believe the exact same things. Yeah. So Alberta has, you know, historically loved its dynasties. At the outset of the province's history, you had liberal rule, then later, you know, three decades of social credit rule and 40 years of PC rule. And then, you know, now it's a jump ball. I'm kind of curious about how that translates into the governance of the province and in

the legislature. You know, there was no powerful opposition party in the legislature for so long. And what's been different now that the ruling party actually has to worry about getting reelected? Well, you have to keep voters on side. There's this kind of funny notion in politics that once you win government, you can kind of relax for two years and do whatever you want. And especially if you've got 40 years under your belts as, you know, a conservative leaning party, either one or the other, you might get a little bit lazy. Who could blame you? It's been 40 years. So now in this case, you're seeing where the level of support, the fundraising numbers are

just about equal, millions and millions of dollars for both in a way that we haven't seen before. So in this new normal, there is no slacking off here. There's a shifting demographic in Alberta. is no slacking off here. There's a shifting demographic in Alberta. We like to call Albertans middle of the road, or if you look at the way that the graph charts out when you put the numbers in, they're middle finger Albertans, which means that if you chart them out on a one to 10 scale, most of them would identify as a five in their political leanings, which is dead in the center. And then the graph kind of peters off from there, which ends up looking like somebody's flipping the middle finger. So you've got the parties, the NDP, who is more progressive and leaning to the left, and the UCP, especially with the direction that Premier Smith has taken with it the last couple of months, a little more

to the right. And that's just not where Albertans are. They're in the middle. And so with this stronger opposition over the last couple of years, and now two parties who are tied, both knowing what it's like to be in government, there's definitely going to be some shaping up on both sides and not a lot of just status quo business as usual if you want to keep voters on side. Okay, so let's talk personalities. Both these leaders are well-known in Alberta. Let's talk about the scouting report here, starting with Danielle Smith, the incumbent.

What are the knocks against her? Well, she's been making national headlines for a while, and I'm not just talking about since the leadership race in the summer. Danielle Smith has been around Alberta politics and in the legislature for over a decade. She was the former Wild Rose leader. She had a famous floor crossing, which ended up completely tanking her party. This afternoon, I tendered my resignation as Wild Rose leader and notified the speaker that nine members of the Wild Rose caucus, including myself, will be joining the government caucus. She decided to come back and run for the UCP leadership after it became clear that Jason Kenney was not long for that position. So she came back on and came on with a strong message of standing up

against the federal government, which is a sentiment that gets some traction out here, and an anti-COVID mandates message. So the pandemic public health orders were done by that point, but she came out and basically said, I'll promise amnesty to anybody charged under public health orders. So she won the leadership race. She became premier. And then we entered the era of clarifications and corrections for the first two or so or three months of her premiership where she was getting a feel for the job, but had said some things or had come across in a way that then she and her office felt needed either apologies or clarifications or corrections. She accidentally parroted

Russian propaganda when talking about Ukraine. I think the only answer for Ukraine is neutrality. She talked about the unvaccinated being the most discriminated against group in her lifetime. The community that faced the most restrictions on their freedoms in the last year were those who made a choice not to be vaccinated. So they have been the most discriminated against group that I've ever witnessed in my lifetime. That's a pretty extreme level of discrimination that we have seen. I don't take away. She's in her 50s. I think we can all probably list a couple of things that were pretty bad

that happened in the last 50 years. So she's had a rocky beginning to her premiership, which was delayed 10 years because she lost a very, very winnable election a decade ago. Well, obviously, after being given up for the political dead and coming back and winning the leadership of her party, she obviously has her supporters. So could you talk to us about what, you know, what people like about her? She's very real, right? We came off a premier who had been a minister on Parliament Hill, been an MP for a long time, was the head of the Taxpayers Federation. Very well-spoken, well-put-together kind of person. But somebody who was seen, people didn't understand who he was as a human when we're talking about Jason Kenney.

Didn't understand his hobbies, didn't understand where he might have fallen personally on a political spectrum. Danielle Smith had a long career too in talk radio. Danielle Smith on 770 CHQR. So people feel like they know her. People feel like she's been visible in the community. And even since taking the premier's office, she is really, really accessible to people. And so far, she's kept her promises. She did pass the Sovereignty Act, which was that bill that said Alberta is just going to ignore federal laws it doesn't like. our country works is that we are a federation of sovereign independent jurisdictions they are one in of those signatories to the constitution and the the rest of us are signatories to the constitution have a right to exercise our sovereign powers in our own area of jurisdiction

they haven't used it and don't have any intention to but she passed it so technically promise kept so if i understand correctly she still has like the far right on side. Like she hasn't lost them despite not using the Alberta Sovereignty Act yet, despite not a lot of movement on the, you know, COVID amnesty thing. So in your opinion, she still has the base on side? Yeah. Where else would they go? Right. That's the thing again, in this two party system, are they going to vote for Rachel Notley? Probably not. So, you know, they ousted one leader less than a year ago. If you start chopping through leaders every six months, it becomes pretty hard to get anything constructive done as a party. And so there actually has been this regaining of unity, at least publicly facing, in the party since she's become premier. Okay, so let's run through the scouting report on Rachel Notley, the NDP leader. She

achieved that rarest distinction in the history of Alberta politics, which is a one-term government. So why did she lose a few years back? What was it that Albertans disliked? Yeah, she disrupted the dynasty, right? And everybody wondered what was to happen next. Friends, I believe that change has finally come to Alberta. It was also terrible timing. She essentially took over government and we went into a bust in the boom and bust cycle of oil and gas. So she inherited and encountered really, really challenging economic circumstances. Even as we move forward to make progress with respect to helping the energy industry through the recession that we've been through and helping them get back to that profitable footing that they've had,

that we keep having these barriers thrown up against us. And we've been pushing and pushing and pushing, and we just have barrier after barrier. But also, and she will admit this herself, had some missteps when it came to her economic policy and when it came to some of the other things that she decided to put forward. So she's the daughter of a former MLA. She's been around politics for a long time, which is actually something the two leaders have in common. They both really understand how the game works. And if you watch their stump speeches, if you watch their press conferences,

they're both really good communicators and really understand political strategy, which is kind of fun as a ginormous political nerd for me to watch two leaders who are just really good at playing the game. So Notley, when the NDP lost, it was a pretty sound thrashing. The province that broke with tradition just four years ago to go NDP has now swung back to conservative rule. Albertans hired us to do a very big job at a very difficult time. And we did that job with purpose. And she stayed on as leader. And it looked, again, like they were in the political wilderness for a bit.

And she's come back and, you know, we are in this rare situation where both Daniel Smith and Rachel Notley know exactly what it's like to be in the premier's office. So, you know, one particularity of Rachel Notley's political profile at this moment is that she's got a higher approval rating than Daniel Smith going into the campaign. You know, what is it that people like about Notley these days at this point? Going back to that middle finger graph, Notley is seen as more centrist than Daniel Smith. And people feel like they know Rachel Notley.

They know she likes to run. They know she likes her dogs. They know what she's about. They feel like they understand her as a person, which really can't be undervalued in politics. If you can see the people who are making these policy decisions on your behalf as somebody just like you, it's a lot easier for lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections.

Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years. I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo, 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. Okay, so Calgary, battleground in this election.

So what is it that makes Calgary such an important swing area or territory in this campaign? I'm going to let you in on some well-known political analysis in Alberta here. Alberta is a three-legged stool. You've got Calgary, Edmonton, and the rest of the province. The wisdom in political strategy in Alberta is you have to win two out of the three. Edmonton is usually a complete sweep for the NDP or pretty close to it. And then the outside of the kind of urban areas, but this would still include like Lethbridge and Red Deer and things like that, tend to go conservative. And it usually comes down to Calgary. And Calgary is interesting because it is really the kind of fortress of the old

progressive conservative party. So you've got people who are tax averse and want small government, So you've got people who are tax averse and want small government, but also want social programs funded because they're just so not interested in what the option is from Daniel Smith right now. So when you get into the polling, they've been neck and neck in Calgary. They've been neck and neck in the province for a while, but Calgary has been particularly close. And right now, the NDP only holds three seats in the city out of 26. So basically, the NDP needs to sweep Calgary, essentially, to have a chance of winning. Based on polling that we've seen, if they get somewhere between 17, 18, and 22, yes. Okay, so let's talk about the battleground within the battleground. I know the northeast part of

the city is what you and the pollsters have been watching. What is it about that particular part of the city and what sorts of issues matter in that key swing area within the swing city? Yeah, it's such an interesting thing. So Calgary is divided pretty evenly into four quadrants. And in the northeast, they've tended to be persuadable one way or another. We had a huge hail storm in Calgary about three years ago. It did a billion dollars of damage, most of it in the northeast. Even in an area known for sudden storms, this was something else. The sound as hail pummeled anything in its path.

The province said they were going to provide some help. We're going to help provide some The sound as hail pummeled anything in its path. The province said they were going to provide some help. We're going to help provide some insurance, claim assistance. And people are still waiting for that money or for that help. And if you drive through areas of the Northeast, there's like literal holes in the houses from this three years ago hailstorm. And so voters in that area really feel that as a motivating issue. It may not be the only ballot box question, but it's, hey, we asked for your help with this, something we had no control over. It's taken a long time to get it. And the Northeast is where a lot of new Canadians live. It's a very, very diverse part of an already very diverse city.

live. It's a very, very diverse part of an already very diverse city. They also are still quite upset about comments that Jason Kenney had made when he was premier during COVID, which essentially blamed virus spread on these immigrant new Canadian permanent resident communities. We see a very high level of spread of COVID-19 in the South Asian community. I don't say that to blame or target anyone. We know that it's a tradition to have big family gatherings at home. And we think this is one of the reasons why we have seen a much higher level of spread in the community than in other parts of the population. You know, yeah, sleeper issues like you talked about the hailstorm. You know, I know that these oddball issues sometimes appear out of nowhere. I mean, they change the election on the federal side. I'm thinking about the hailstorm. You know, I know that these oddball issues sometimes appear out of nowhere. I mean, they change the election.

On the federal side, I'm thinking about arts funding in 2008. Nobody saw that as a big issue entering the campaign, but it might've cost Stephen Harper his majority. A NICAB controversy devastated the NDP in 2015. Marijuana legalization, also 2015, might've driven youth turnout and gotten Justin Trudeau his majority.

So I know these things are inherently impossible to predict, but I'm wondering if you have to pick one surprise issue here, maybe it's the hailstorm issue, but is there something you think might be the potential sleeper issue that could swing this election? I'm going to sound like a retiree here, but pension plans. So during the leadership race for the United Conservatives, the idea was floated by Danielle Smith as well as by others that maybe Alberta should leave the United Conservatives. The idea was floated by Danielle Smith, as well as by others,

that maybe Alberta should leave the Canada pension plan. The NDP takes the opposite view. They want to stay in the Canada pension plan. We have a report on the feasibility and the cost of this floating around somewhere in the ether, but the government hasn't released it yet. And it's becoming, and especially with the NDP pushing it, it's becoming a bit of a wedge issue. The UCP has stopped talking about it. So if there was one thing that I would say has the potential to become a bigger issue and move people around, I would say it would be this pitch on an Alberta pension plan. Okay. Now, let's talk about the rest of Canada. For those of us who don't live in Alberta, what does it mean for other Canadians if Rachel Notley's premier versus Daniel Smith? And I'm thinking of issues like, you know, a carbon tax, federalism issues, relationship with Justin Trudeau. So what's the rest of Canada angle in this election?

leaders particularly like the federal government or what's going on. And you'll see UCP attack ads essentially saying that Rachel Notley and Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh go out for lunch every Tuesday. On May 29th, vote to stand up to the Liberal NDP coalition of Justin Trudeau, Jagmeet Singh and Rachel Notley. And so there is this uneasiness in Alberta about the relationship with the federal government. And I'm not even talking about separatism. Even the people who are, you know, diehard Canadians before they're diehard Albertans. There is this sense that there's not a good understanding up on Parliament Hill of the issues that are going on in Alberta, because Alberta is going through a big transition. And I don't mean that in the kind of like pun intended way just transition

transition in its way of thinking not even just about the oil and gas sector but there's there's this shift in how you're looking at the economy at industry at how to redo health care at the shifting demographics and the growing sizes of cities and the way that the rural communities are affected by people centralizing in urban areas. And all of that has implications for policies that are handed down from the federal government, as well as how the leaders handle this uneasiness in the province when things are changing very quickly. You know, the rest of Canada sometimes paints Alberta with one brush, you know, focused on only one major industry, oil and natural gas, a conservative province, cowboy culture. You just talked about it changing. Can you talk about ways it's changing and what this election might show us about these changes in Alberta? I think this election really is going to show how much things are shifting. This isn't going

to be a case where Alberta looks different in four years, no matter who wins the election. We've had a huge influx of interprovincial and international migration. People aren't leaving those political views that they've brought from other places at the provincial borders. That's shifting things in Alberta. You've got nuanced views to people have similar preoccupations, even if they have different ways of wanting to deal with it, right? It's, is my family safe? And that can include health care. And can I provide financially for my family? So all of these things exist in Alberta at once, right? Hippie Edmonton, Cowboy Cardston, all of that stuff. We've got a booming tech sector

and we've also got a massive agriculture sector, right? All these things intersect and Alberta really is a whole bunch of different pieces of the same picture rather than being completely different chapters of a book, for example. You know, this is reminding me a lot of Georgia. Historically conservative place, booming economy, people are moving there. And this place is now an electoral coin flip. It's a swing state now. And I guess you've got a swing province, at least as far as this election is concerned. Never boring out in Alberta.

Never boring. Well, have fun covering this election, Lise. Thanks, Alex. That's all for today. Thanks so much for listening to FrontBurner. I'm Alex Panetta. Talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.