Front Burner - Will the Liberals’ cabinet retreat put them in fighting form?

Episode Date: August 27, 2024

Liberal ministers are hunkered down in Halifax right now for their annual end-of-summer cabinet retreat. It’s a chance for the party to get together and set the agenda ahead of the fall session of parliament. But this year, a shadow hangs over the retreat, as the party contends with dismal polling numbers, calls for leader Justin Trudeau to step down, and the looming reality of a general election that’s at best a year away.Today, JP Tasker, a senior reporter with the CBC’s parliamentary bureau, speaks to us about how the Liberals are trying to reverse their fortunes, the changes people are calling for from inside the party, and whether or not they’ve got enough time to turn things around.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcriptsTranscripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. I'm Jonathan Mopizzi, in for Jamie Poisson. Every year at the end of the summer, Justin Trudeau and his ministers hunker down for a cabinet retreat. It's a chance for the government to set its agenda before the fall sitting of parliament.

But this year, there's a long shadow hanging over the retreat. Like a 15 to 20 points behind the conservative size shadow. Like a recent by-election defeat in a long-time liberal stronghold size shadow. A pall that even a string of big policy announcements hasn't been able to shake. Not to mention the looming deadline of an election, which has to take place by October 2025. So today, I'm talking to the CBC's JP Tasker, who's in Halifax covering the cabinet retreat. We're going to talk about how the Liberals are trying to reverse their fortunes, the kinds of changes people inside the party would like to see, and whether they've got enough time to turn things around. Hi, JP. Hey, thanks for having me. So I mentioned off the top how dire

recent polling has been for the Liberals, and they've got about a year until they have to hold a general election. So what's at stake for the party at this retreat, JP? Everything. Yeah, everything. They've got to try and turn things around. The Liberal Party has been down in the polls for like 12 to 18 months at this point, and everybody knows it, right? They're not just down, they're down by double digits. People are tired, they're cranky, they want to see new leadership at the top, but they're not necessarily sold on Pierre Polyev and his team either, but they're just not sure if they can go with Justin Trudeau again. That's kind of the general sentiment right now. So heading into

this cabinet retreat, the government is acutely aware that they need to do something to try and win back voters to try and get into a better position for that they can, you know, contend for power again next fall when we have the next federal election. Right, and this retreat is taking place just a few months after that, just crushing by-election loss in the riding of Toronto St. Paul's, which had been like a Liberal stronghold for decades. Don Stewart coming out on top in the Toronto St. Paul's by-election. The financial and marketing specialists claim just over 15,500 votes, or 42.1%. The seat has been a Liberal stronghold for the last 10 elections.

And they've got another couple of by-elections coming up soon, too, which I suppose is kind of the next big test for them? It's a huge test. Yeah, after Toronto-St. Paul, there's really no room for error. I mean, they lost that seat. They've held that seat for more than 30 years, and to go down to defeat to the Conservatives in a Toronto riding was not pretty. And they face a similar test in Montreal, unless Dallin Martin Verdun. It's a longtime Liberal stronghold. It's been in the Liberal wing column for decades, except for a brief interlude with

the Orange Wave and the NDP. But you know, it's Paul Martin's former riding, the former prime minister used to hold that seat. It's a ruby red riding, just like Toronto St. Paul's. And if this one falls into the hands of an opposition party, then yeah, things are going to be really dire for this government and the Liberal Party. And there are definitely questions about whether Justin Trudeau can stay on as prime minister if they lose that one as well. All right, let's talk about some of those questions. So what were you guys in Ottawa hearing from current and former MPs in the wake of that loss in Toronto? And what kind of response were people inside of the party looking for?

Well, MPs want to see some sort of change after that by-election loss. They're like, we can't go on like this. We need to make some changes. We need to either have a cabinet shuffle, maybe switch up who's on the front bench. We need to put some new policy proposals in the window. Maybe we need to deal with the staffing around the prime minister. Maybe who they've got there isn't working out so much. MPs are like, we don't get a lot of face time with Trudeau. Maybe we need to sit down with him more than we do and just hash it out and kind of figure out a plan that will work to try and win back some voters. Some people were also calling for the prime minister to step aside. We only actually had one liberal MP, one sitting liberal MP come forward

publicly to say Justin Trudeau needs to go. CBC News has obtained an email sent by Liberal MP Wayne Long to the entire caucus. He writes, For the future of our party and for the good of our country, we need new leadership and a new direction. The voters have spoken loud and clear. They want change. I agree. But we heard from other MPs behind the scenes. They were whispering into our ears saying, we don't know about this guy. We're not sure if we can actually win with him. I agree. So a lot of that sentiment has died down a bit. But as we approach this cabinet retreat, we were talking to a number of MPs who are like, yeah, we're not sure if they really have a great plan to rescue this party and to get us back into contention. We're really going to have been some policy changes. We can talk about that later.

But some of the things that MPs are really angling for, it's basically the status quo right now. Trudeau and his ministers are at this retreat. You're there in Halifax. It wraps up on Tuesday. What are the ministers trying to get done in Halifax? Yeah, so the ministers are basically sketching out what the next year will look like for this government, especially on the policy front, but also on the political front. And they're trying to clean up some of the problems that have emerged, one of them being immigration, we have the fastest population growth rate in the Western world in the developed world.

And we added more than a million people last year. And there's a feeling that that is not a political winner for them anymore, that Canadians are souring on just how many people are coming into the country that people are getting frustrated about it, because they feel like it's fueling the housing crisis, and it's also making access to health care worse. So ministers out today clamping down on the temporary foreign worker program. We will have with today's changes about 65,000 fewer people participating in the temporary foreign worker program. Why is that important? It's important because we want to see Canadians and permanent residents have access to entry-level jobs in what has been known as the low-wage stream up to now. And the Prime Minister himself floating today at a press conference when I asked him months, making sure that our immigration, which continues to be an extraordinary important advantage

that Canada has in the world, continues to be the way we operate, but it has to be done right. So we're looking at the various streams to make sure that as we move forward, which would be a major development because this government, of course, has really championed immigration, said it's a big win for the economy. They're expecting 500,000 of them next year. That number now up for debate. Tell me what you think is behind that reversal with the temporary foreign workers.

What's the politics that's motivating that shift? Well, while the economy is doing reasonably well, like inflation is coming down, and we haven't had a major recession at all to this point, the problem is that the unemployment rates for immigrants has actually gone up substantially. It's nearly double what it is for the overall unemployment rate. So about 12% of all newcomers in this country are unemployed right now. And also for young people, it's even higher. It's over 13%. And a lot of young people struggled over the summer to get a job. And there's a feeling out there,

experts have backed this up with some research that temporary form workers, especially in the low wage stream, have been crowding out some permanent residents here and young people. And that places like Tim Hortons, McDonald's, convenience stores, working at tourist attractions and hotels and motels over the summer, that people weren't getting those opportunities because businesses are essentially importing cheaper workers from abroad to do those jobs. And so the government is saying, okay, we recognize this is an issue. We recognize unemployment rates are too high for certain categories of people. We need to rein it in. We are tightening the rules and restricting eligibility to reduce the number of low-wage

temporary foreign workers in Canada, with exceptions in certain industries like healthcare, construction, and food security. So to those who would complain about worker shortages, here's my message. There is no better time to hire and invest in Canadian workers. A simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization. Empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. Hi, it's Ramit Sethi here. You may have seen my money show on Netflix. I've been talking about money for 20 years.

I've talked to millions of people and I have some startling numbers to share with you. Did you know that of the people I speak to, 50% of them do not know their own household income? That's not a typo. 50%. That's because money is confusing. In my new book and podcast, Money for Couples, I help you and your partner create a financial vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. Ahead of this cabinet retreat, some liberal MPs spoke to your colleagues, Ashley Burke and Kate McKenna, about the changes they wanted to see to help the party try to turn things around. I imagine you've been hearing many similar things. So let's sort of break that down a little bit. For starters, many MPs think the party needs a new communication strategy. Why?

Like, where do they think the party is failing when it comes to communication? Well, Pierre Polyev has successfully captured the zeitgeist, if you will, right? Like, he has been defining the agenda for a long time since he was, you know, first elected as leader of the Conservative Party. He's been able to hammer the government on housing in particular, right, going after them continuously. You graduated, you got a job, you work hard, you can't afford a home. This is obviously because housing costs have doubled under Justin Trudeau. Now, nine in 10 young people believe they'll never be able to afford a home. This is not normal. And there's a feeling that like the liberals

need to grab the reins again and start being in charge of the communications messaging and just have more of a lead on things and not just responding to what the conservatives are raising, that they want to be out in front on some of these issues, not always being on the defensive. And so a lot of MPs feel like the government needs to be more frank about where it's failed and be more contrite about where things haven't gone well, and not just bury their heads in the sand and pretend like everything's all right. When they are down double digits, when some polls put them down more than 20 points, you can't just carry on as business as usual. And they want to see some meaningful change on that front and also present a better vision for

the country for the future and be more positive and hopeful and optimistic about where things are going. And they feel like they haven't really done a great job of that. And over the last little while, they need to have a bit of a reset. The federal government owns tons of land in cities and towns across the country. You can build a lot of homes on those lands. So that's what we're going to do. We're offering up that public land for housing. And we're not just going to sell it all to developers.

We're going to long-term lease it. Affordability, housing, probably the two most pressing issues for Canadians right now. And Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, has been the face of some of the party's biggest announcements on those files. We know that some homeowners are concerned about their mortgage payments and about renewing their mortgages at a higher rate. To further support these Canadians, we're announcing stronger measures through the Canadian Mortgage Charter. Are the party's communication struggles about more than just Justin Trudeau?

Yeah, I mean, a lot of MPs have voiced frustration about Chrystia Freeland with me and with my colleagues, Kate McKenna and Ashley Burke and others. And they're concerned that, you know, the budget in the spring was supposed to be this big policy document that would turn things around, that they'd see a nice big bump. They're going to slap capital gains tax on the rich and that that would really bring in some progressive voters back into the liberal fold. Today, it is possible for a nurse or a carpenter to pay tax at a higher marginal rate than a multimillionaire. That's not fair. People were really hopeful that this ambitious housing plan that was announced also in that

document would be pretty appealing to especially young people who are really struggling to find an affordable place to call home. You know, I've heard so many people say, I did all the right things. I studied really hard. I got a good job. I work hard at that good job. And still things don't seem to be working out. And to me, it's about saying, as a country, we have to fix that. And that didn't really happen. And there's a feeling that Freeland might, you know, she might not be as useful as she once was, that she might not be the best messenger, that she might be a bit condescending, frankly, in her public messaging. And they're feeling like maybe we need to swap her out and get somebody else in. If Justin Trudeau is not going to go, then maybe Freeland as his deputy should be the one to maybe be the fall gal for all this. And that's, I wouldn't say a common sentiment. I don't know if every liberal

MP feels that way, but we've certainly heard from a number of vocal MPs who are frustrated with Freeland and her performance and how the budget has really not lifted their fortunes. You know, JP, it's probably worth noting that about a year ago, the Liberals had a massive shakeup when Trudeau moved to replace, I think, all but eight of his 38 ministers in a cabinet shuffle. And things didn't really get any better for them, at least polling-wise, since. Why would now be any different? Why would people still be talking about the need for a cabinet shuffle? Well, that's what government sources say to us is that the last cabinet shuffle didn't really work out that great for the liberals because the voting public doesn't really care much about cabinet, right? Most people, when you look

at polls, can't even identify cabinet ministers other than the prime minister. And the last cabinet shuffle didn't work out so great for Trudeau because Carolyn Bennett left, that opened up Toronto St. Paul's, they just lost that seat. David Lamedi left, that opened up this La Salle-Marte-Verdun riding that's going to be in a by-election in September, and they're in a tough race there. They might actually lose that seat. So it's like this cabinet shuffle that was supposed to put a new spin on things actually just created some more problems for them. So the center has made the calculation that a cabinet shuffle is not necessarily all that beneficial to them because there'll be more seats they'll have to try and It's interesting that the liberals are also reportedly taking inspiration from the Democrats in the U.S. under Kamala Harris. The Dems have been surging in popularity since she became the presumptive nominee last month. And the CBC piece that I was mentioning by Ashley Burke and Kate McKenna, apparently a couple of MPs told them that Trudeau has been kind of trying to match the joy message that's been so successful for the Harris campaign.

But I kind of wonder, JP, are they misunderstanding what happened there in the U.S. and why Harris may be surging in the polls? Yeah, it's really a just completely different situation in many ways, although there are some similarities. I mean, I've been asking some cabinet ministers over the last couple of days, hey, you've seen what's happened in the US. The Democrats swapped out their leader. They got Kamala Harris in there. Now they're enjoying a pretty sizable bump in the polls and a lot of enthusiasm among party members. Does that give you pause? Does that make you, you know, pause? Does that make you think,

maybe we should do the same thing here in Canada? Maybe we should get Trudeau out and get somebody else in and maybe things will turn around for the Liberal Party. But cabinet ministers not biting on that saying, no, they haven't felt like they need to mimic what's happening in the US. But yes, some MPs are looking south of the border with envy and seeing, you know, a progressive party on

the upswing after they were in the doldrums a little bit under Biden, and thinking, maybe we'll just try and copy some of the rhetoric that they're using there and use it here. But, you know, I think Paulie and Donald Trump are different sort of opponents, you know, there might be some similarities on some fronts are both more populist, certainly, and more right wing on some issues. But they're also different. You know, some people saying Trump is more of an existential threat to democracy and to the US and its future. And Polyev is not quite the same kind of character. You know, the reason why Kamala Harris is seeing improved fortunes is people are just tired of Trump and people are tired of Trudeau in this country. They're not necessarily tired of Polyev at this point. Yeah, like, you know, you mentioned the fatigue factor. How easy or hard would it be for the liberals to try to mirror the politics of joy a la Harris, given that they've been in power for nearly a decade? Yeah, it might be easier for a different liberal leader to go that way,

right? It might be they could take a page out of the Kamala Harris playbook if they had a fresh face at the top. But it's tough for Trudeau, who's been in there for nine years, they're going into their 10th year in government, to be like, rah, rah, this is a fresh new start. It's all about joy. It's all about hope. We're going to turn things around. It's going to be great when he's had so long to actually make substantive change in this country and be the face of government. It's just it's a message that can't just be superimposed on a political leader has to come up organically, I think. As you know, the Democrats in the US have switched up their leader over the summer and they're seeing some success in the polls. You know, they're now competitive with Donald Trump, whereas before it seemed hopeless.

And there's a lot of enthusiasm among party members. Does that give you pause and make you think maybe we should have a leadership swap here in this country to revive the Liberal fortunes? Absolutely not. So if we go along with the argument that the liberals' big problem right now is about communicating about what they're doing and not so much about the policies, what are they doing right? Like what are the big policy wins for them that they want to communicate better? Yeah, well, inflation, which has been such a major issue for the country for the last number of years since that post-COVID period, is starting to come down. We are seeing the Bank of Canada go ahead with some interest rate cuts, which does make life more affordable, especially for people who have a variable rate mortgage. So the government is happy that the independent central bank is going in that direction. They hope to see

more cuts in the months to come so that it doesn't cost so much to borrow, to buy a home, to buy a car, to have a second property, to start a business, whatever it might be, you know, that definitely makes things better for people. And they're saying that they deserve some credit for that, because they have tried to rein in government spending, and that that's given the Bank of Canada some leeway to actually pursue interest rate cuts and inflation has been able to come down. They say that they've been harder on grocers and retailers and that they've been able to keep prices in check there. They've also brought down the cost of cell phone plans. And that's given some people, you know, a bit of a break on their cell phone bills every month.

So they're trying to say, yeah, this is all our doing. Things are going better, and you can thank us for it. But I'm not sure if the public is really giving them credit for a relatively good economic situation. I don't think the public is necessarily thinking they've had anything substantive to do with things becoming more positive overall. And so the liberals are really struggling to take credit for something that a lot of people blame them for in the first place. I think it's fair to say that there's also an issue of timelines here, timelines that aren't really compatible with each other. So, for example, the liberals have announced this plan to build 3.9 million homes by 2031. And whether or not you think they can meet that goal, that's still seven years away.

But people are feeling, obviously, they're feeling the housing crisis now. And an election has to happen next year. So, are the timelines for these plans, for these policy announcements just too far away for the liberals to move the needle at this point? Yes. Yes, absolutely. I mean, you can't build a home in a month, right? You're not going to be able to turn around your standing on the issue of housing with voters over the short term or even the medium term. It's really a long-term thing. A lot of the things that they're doing now to try and improve the housing picture will not be material, they won't materialize for years to come. And we actually look at the housing start figures from the Canadian Mortgage and

Housing Corporation, which has a good look at, you know, where things are at. Despite all the government programs, housing starts are about the same in July as they were in July 2022. So, you know, some of the things that they have been able to accomplish over the last year, like cutting deals with the cities to speed up planning and cut some red tape around getting more units into smaller pieces of land. All that's well and good and it will certainly improve things, but it hasn't materialized yet. And it won't necessarily come together before the election in October of 2025. And so they're fighting against the clock. They're fighting against the clock and trying to turn things around. And so they're hoping that they're going to try and hang their fortunes on the economy. And that's really what they think will help them in the

long term is that if inflation and interest rates really do come down to a much more manageable level, that people will eventually thank them for what they've done. If the stock market stays high, people that got stocks in their RRSP will be like, huh, things are pretty good under the liberals. Do I really want to take a risk with Pierre Polyev? We're not sure about that guy. How's the economy going to be with him? That's what they're hoping will carry them back to government in October 2025.

But it's just such an uphill battle. Pierre Polyev and the conservatives just look like they have such a commanding lead at this point, and it's going to be hard to shake him from that position. All right, John Paul Tasker, thanks so much for joining us. Thank you so much for having me. That's all for today. Thanks for listening to FrontBurner, and we'll talk to you tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.