Front Burner - With Navalny dead, is Putin absolute?

Episode Date: February 19, 2024

The Kremlin says Alexei Navalny died Friday in an Arctic prison. After surviving a poisoning and still making the decision to return to Russia, President Vladimir Putin's most significant opposition figure was serving 19 years on extremism charges.What do we know about how Navalny died?Amid accusations that he was murdered, what motivations would Navalny's enemies have for acting against him now? Not long after a number of Western commentators predicted Putin's demise over the Ukraine war, what does Navalny's death mean for Putin's tightening grip on Russia?CBC's Briar Stewart explains.

In the Dragon's Den, a simple pitch can lead to a life-changing connection. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization, empowering Canada's entrepreneurs through angel investment and industry connections. This is a CBC Podcast. Hi, I'm Jamie Poisson. Over the weekend, small groups of people in Russia came to lay flowers at the foot of Moscow's Wall of Grief. This is a memorial made to honor the victims of Stalin-era political repression. They came to mourn, of course, the most prominent opposition figure Russia has seen in recent years,

Alexei Navalny, who the Kremlin said died Friday in an Arctic prison. Just showing up was an act of bravery in Putin's Russia. At one point, the riot police came to clear the square. There were arrests.

Are you not scared, Alexei? Speaking of courage, I remember so clearly the videos from 2021, from the plane ride that was carrying Navalny back to Russia, when the lawyer-turned turned anti-corruption activist actually chose to go back home, knowing full well he'd be arrested the moment that he landed. And he did this after the Kremlin tried to poison him with a nerve agent. Today on the show, my colleague Briar Stewart joins me from London, and we're going to talk about Navalny's legacy, what we know and don't know about his death so far. And we're also going to talk about how Putin remains

solidly in control of his country, despite a war, international sanctions, and a private military uprising. Briar, hey, thanks so much for coming on. Hello. So let's start here. Tell me what we've heard so far from Russian officials about how and why Navalny died. Right. Well, the whole news of his death came out at first from Russia's prison service. And the official line is that he died after taking a walk. He suddenly collapsed. They tried to revive him.

He couldn't be revived, and he died shortly after. Then on Friday, there was a narrative that was playing in Russian state media that he had died of a blood clot. You know, that reason that they put out there, I mean, it was pretty pervasive, because I can tell you, I was looking on Reuters, and there was a Reuters journalist out talking to Russians on the street about what they thought of Alexei Navalny's death. And a few of them had already mentioned the blood clot. It was a blood clot and it was a tragedy. Since then, Navalny's mother, who was in Russia, has been told that he died of sudden death syndrome. Yeah, what's that? Well, I think it basically means unexplained circumstances. But really, at the moment, we understand that there hasn't been any

autopsy conducted. Certainly, Navalny's family hasn't been told of one, his supporters, the people with his anti-corruption foundation. And so at this moment, I mean, they're really only going by what officials are telling them. And of course, they don't believe what they're hearing at all. Yeah. Tell me more about what they're saying, that they don't believe what they're hearing at all. Yeah. Like, tell me more about what they're saying that they don't believe. And they're also trying to get a hold of his body, right? That's right. Yeah. So his mother and his lawyer flew up to this remote penal colony dubbed Polar Wolf. I mean, it's like nearly 2000 kilometers away from Moscow. So it took them a long time to get there. They arrived, they went to the morgue, like the area where the morgue is, they were told that the body wasn't there. It now appears to have been taken to a different hospital in the area. And there have been reports in independent Russian media, so media that operates outside of Russia, saying that they talked to a source who said that they'd seen the body and there were bruises on it.

Meanwhile, you have Russian state media talking about forensic experts who have been flown in from Moscow. So the exact, I guess, status of the body is unclear right now. But really what the family wants, what his supporters want, is for the body to be released to the family. Alexei Navalny was murdered, his spokesperson later declared. We are continuing to wait for the official death certificate and release of the body. We demand that Alexei Navalny's body be handed over to his family immediately. But right now, I mean, this is completely in the control of the Kremlin and everything else that they control there. Yeah, and I'll just, I think I want to timestamp this conversation because it's moving kind of fast. We are speaking Sunday, 1 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

So I want to come back to the circumstances around his death with you. But first, let's go back in time a little bit and talk about what led to Navalny getting onto that plane that I was talking about in 2021 and going back to Russia. Of course, he was a huge thorn in Putin's side. to Russia. Of course, he was a huge thorn in Putin's side. And just give me a quick recap on how he came onto the scene as an opposition figure. Yeah, so Navalny was educated as a lawyer, and he really kind of first gained prominence by going after some of Russia's state corporations, accusing them of corruption, graft. He started to participate and organize large protests. Alexei Navalny has become the face of the anti-corruption campaign in Russia, harnessing the anger of young activists on social media, streaming protests online.

In 2013, he ran to become mayor of Moscow. We are a huge, powerful force, and I'm glad we have started realizing this. I'm very happy to be part of it. He ended up losing, but he came in second place to the man who had been basically a Putin appointee. And so he did have pretty sizable support back then. He tried to run for president in 2018, but he was barred from running. And in fact, back then, after he announced that he wanted to run, he got splashed with a green substance while he was out in public. And he lost eyesight temporarily in one eye.

I just wanted to say one thing. Maybe in the Kremlin they think I won't make video addresses with a green face, but I will definitely make them because more people will watch them now and it definitely won't stop me. And then of course, as you mentioned, what happened to him in 2020, where he was on a plane in Siberia and there were a clip from somebody that was on the plane recording it on a cell phone video, and you could just hear him wailing in pain. I get out of the bathroom, turn over to the flight attendant and said to him,

I was poisoned, I'm going to die. And then I lay down under his feet and to die. And it turned out that he had been poisoned with Novichok, a nerve agent, and he spent months recovering in Germany before making that decision to return to Russia. There was a documentary made about Navalny, actually by a Canadian filmmaker, Daniel Rohr, who's been on Frontburner before. I think it won an Oscar. And it chronicles sort of the investigation into his poisoning.

And just tell me a little bit about what it reveals, because it's quite extraordinary. Yeah. So after Navalny, you know, was poisoned, he went to Germany and he woke up from his coma and he was in Germany for about five months. And during that time, you mentioned, yes, he was part of this documentary. And you also had a lot of investigative outlets that were kind of in touch with him, like Bellingcat, you had CNN, you had a German publication that were piecing together really the months leading up to this poisoning. And they basically concluded that it was the FSB, which is kind of what the KGB was before. It's the FSB now. So not only did they say that the FSB had been surveilling him for months, but there's this

incredible scene, this incredible piece of video where Navalny picks up the phone and calls an FSB agent, pretending he's somebody from Russia's National Security Council and is looking for information as to why this poisoning attempt failed and why, you know, Navalny is alive. And he basically gets this FSB agent to tell him that they poisoned him by putting nerve agent on his underwear. How could you do this? How could you do this?

Yes. So we're not going to be like, what? He spilled the whole story. This is... This is... He spilled the whole story. This is... Unbelievable. Poor guy. Poor guy. They will kill him.

They will kill him. Literally. I think you'll be president. Seriously. After this. No, no. I think after this, they will definitely kill me. Poor guy.

I mean, it's quite a... It was wild. It is. It's very surreal. And I think it, you know, on the one hand, you have this sophisticated plot where they were surveilling him. They tried to poison him and then they give it all up by being duped on this phone call. So it's quite telling. What has he said about why he decided to get on that plane in 2021? Like at one point, I think he's watching like Rick and Morty.

And all of these journalists and people on the plane, they're almost staring at him like they can't believe that he's done this. Right. And so why? Why go back knowing it seems like just such an enormous sacrifice? It is such an enormous sacrifice. It is such an enormous sacrifice. Yeah, it is, absolutely. And after he was getting off the plane, there is a clip of a journalist asking him, well, aren't you afraid that you're going to be in prison?

And he says something along the lines of... Everyone is asking me if I'm afraid. I am not afraid. All the charges against me have been fabricated, and all these threats they tried to scare me with are lies. Truth is on my side, and so is the law. So I'm not afraid of anything, and I ask you not to be afraid either. And I think what his supporters, his family has certainly said,

is that he believed he had to go back, because if he wanted to inspire others to challenge the government, he could not do that abroad. I know that my dad misses Russia, even though it's scary to go back. And if he didn't go back i would say you need to go back and fight it's something worth fighting for and you know there is another um high profile political prisoner in russia right now vladimir karamurza he is actually somebody that canada has made an

honorary canadian citizen he's a journalist activist, and also an opposition politician, or he has been in the past. And after Russia launched its war in Ukraine, its full-scale invasion, Karamurza went back to Russia, and he was arrested. And he's now charged with high treason. He too is in a penal colony in Siberia. now charged with high treason. He too is in a penal colony in Siberia. And I spoke to his wife, who lives outside the country, and I said, why would he go back? Knowing what had happened to Navalny, why would he go back? And she said, I do respect and admire him because he is who he is, and because he behaves in this particular way, although I know what risks this represents to him and to our entire family. You know, it would be hypocritical for someone to tell others that they need to rise up, that they need to challenge the Kremlin, they need to challenge authority, you know, if you're sitting in the comfort of Berlin or Washington, D.C. or London. And I mention his case because I think it is very similar to what Navalny's thinking was, that, you know, if your actions speak louder than your words, and while he, you know, would have been effective, you know, speaking abroad and putting out these videos and campaigning, he wanted to send a message that he was not afraid and then he decided to return. Watch new episodes of Dragon's Den free on CBC Gem. Brought to you in part by National Angel Capital Organization.

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vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Couples. vision together. To listen to this podcast, just search for Money for Cops. Since he's been in prison, what do we know about what his life has been like? Well, you know, he has been in very harsh conditions and he used to be in a prison that was closer to Moscow. And then in December, he basically disappeared for a couple of weeks where, you know, his family didn't know where he was. His lawyer didn't even know where he was. And then he resurfaced at this prison up in Siberia. After a journey, Navalny says, took almost three weeks. They brought me here on Saturday night.

Messages posted on social media by his aides say, I didn't expect anyone to find me here before mid-January. And so people were very concerned that he was there because he has been throughout this whole time that he's been in custody, he's frequently put in solitary confinement. So, you know, in a very small space, there were concerns about his health repeatedly. He had lost a lot of weight. At one point, he had gone on a hunger strike. And so you had last year, hundreds of Russian doctors, including some that were still

living in Russia, signing a letter, sending it to the Kremlin, basically pleading to show mercy on Alexei Navalny, because there were a lot of concerns about his health. That being said, the day before he died, he was appeared in court by Videolink. You know, there is a short clip that is out there of him, you know, talking to the judge, even joking with the judge. That, oh, you know, he's running out of money in his prison account. Maybe the judge should use some of his huge judicial salary to help him out. You know, it's hard to say exactly what kind of condition he was in, but he did seem to be in good spirits.

Friar, I'm so interested to hear your perspective here, because at least at one point in time, Navalny was able to bring a lot of people out onto the streets. And so what was it about him that, you know, gave him that traction in Russia, if you even buy that premise I'm putting to you? Yeah, he was. I mean, he was able to bring a lot of people to the streets. And in fact, when he arrived back in Russia and was arrested, thousands went to the streets. And there was a major crackdown by riot police and people were arrested. I think what it stems down to is he's very charismatic, very intelligent, and he has a kind of witty sense of humor. And part of what his whole strategy has been, his and his

allies at the Anti-Corruption Foundation, has been putting out videos on YouTube trying to expose Russian corruption online and reaching out to people that way. And in fact, even after he was arrested back in Russia, it was not long after that that they put out this investigation that they'd been working on about this sprawling estate on the Black Sea that was, you know, dubbed Putin's palace. President Vladimir Putin denied allegations linking him to a luxurious property on the Black Sea coast. They were his first comments since mass protests erupted

across the country over the weekend. And so I think that kind of work really resonated with people, even if they weren't necessarily, you know, the kind of person that would take to the streets in a protest. Some of these investigations that they did really got a lot of traction. You mentioned before that his family is skeptical, obviously, about the circumstances. At least some of his allies have flat out said that they believe that he was murdered, right? Absolutely.

You know, one question I've been thinking about over the weekend is, let's say that that is true and he was murdered. Why now? Why would Putin do it now? Yeah, I think the timing of it, I mean, a lot of people have been asking that. And I mean, the timing of it is interesting because we are one month away from the election in Russia. And I even hesitate to say an election because, of course, we know that they aren't free or fair in Russia and Putin is destined to be elected again. Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation in December had put up a series of billboards in cities across Russia, like Moscow, St. Petersburg, and there was a QR code. And if you held your phone up, you would be taken to a website

talking about basically smart voting. That's something that Navalny and his people really advocated for, was trying to encourage strategic voting to vote against the candidate that had the best chance of defeating Putin. So these billboards were up and they basically were taken down right away. So it's not clear whether or not that had any kind of effect at all, but Putin has always had great disdain for Navalny in a way that he didn't even want to acknowledge him. Whenever he was asked a question about Navalny, he wouldn't mention his name. Like he would never say his name.

He would say this person, this man, you know, this person you're talking about. On Friday, Putin was at a factory. He was asked questions by state media, not about Navalny. Putin didn't bring it up at all. And so in that respect, like Navalny was not, I would say on the radar a lot in Russia at the moment. I in that respect, like Navalny was not, I would say, on the radar a lot

in Russia at the moment. I mean, sure, he would have supporters that might, you know, follow his cases online, but it's not as if state media was covering him. And it's not as if he was going to really make a difference in the election, which is why, you know, the timing of it, it's not really clear. Why put it back in the spotlight, I guess? Well, that's it. I mean, so, you know, there's been analysts thinking that maybe it's Putin trying to send a message. But I think what it really boils down to and what we can say for sure is that throughout the last two years in Russia, the level of repression and I guess the state's wrath for anyone who is even the slightest bit critical of the government has really escalated. I mean, if you look what has happened over even the last year, I mean, you had Yevgeny Progozhin.

Who very publicly challenged the government launching this, you know, unsuccessful coup. They rolled unopposed into the city of Rostov. And then they marched on in the direction of Moscow, in a direct challenge to the authority of President Putin. He seriously died in a plane crash a little bit later. His plane just blew up. Yeah, exactly. And so, you know, you already had this, this repression in Russia. And now what we're seeing is the government going after Russians abroad. So these are people who maybe left after the start of the war, maybe they left earlier, but these are people that might have an apartment in Russia still and they rented out. And so now basically they've passed a law saying that if you're on Facebook and you know, in Germany or in Latvia,

and you're criticizing the government, they can seize your apartment. So I think this just speaks to kind of like the tightening of the restrictions on people. And it might not speak to the timing of why we've seen Navalny die now, but I think it just adds to the discussion about what a severe and repressive state Russia is at the moment. And do you think that that's because Putin is operating from a place of strength or from a place of weakness? Because you could see arguments theoretically on both sides for why a leader would start tightening the screws, right, in a situation like that. Yeah, and I think arguments have been made on both sides. And a lot has been said about how Putin doesn't want to take any chances, like the least bit of criticism, anything that could flare up to any kind of protest gets snuffed out, you know, long before it actually becomes consequential. But I think overall, I mean, things are going pretty well for Putin and Putin's Russia right now. All the sanctions that were levied against Russia, it's been able to kind of reorientate its economy, you know, put itself on war footing.

It's managing OK. I mean, sure, there are travel restrictions, but life for a lot of Russians continues as it has. And we're soon to be heading into the third year of Russia's full war in Ukraine. And it's going pretty well for Russia. I mean, it's not seizing more territory, but it's Ukraine now that's on the defensive. So I think Putin isn't in a stronger position than many had thought he would be. Yeah, I remember at the time when he launched the full-scale invasion, there was really no end to the think pieces, right,

of how he had made this huge strategic mistake and that this could be the end of Putin. And those think pieces, they seem to have all but evaporated. Ending this conversation on Navalny, obviously in the immediate term, as we've just been talking about, the needle's not going to move here, right? Putin's not going to be toppled in the immediate future. But what could be the the longer term effect of this now that he has

essentially been immortalized as a martyr? You know, is there an argument to be made that that will inspire others that, you know, his people have an infrastructure in place now and they will continue this fight? And at some point, the dam could break. Yeah, I think what we will see is, you know, a sense of people rallying around Navalny, but that is mostly going to be outside of Russia. I mean, when we look at the memorials for him, there were large crowds, you know, across Europe and European capitals. But so many people have left Russia, people who, you know, were actively involved in his anti-corruption foundation, people who, you know, who were journalists, independent journalists, people who were targeted by the state for whatever reason. And so that's why when we talk about whether or not,

you know, his death is going to kind of act as an impetus for the opposition to lunge forward, I just do not see that happening in Russia in the near future, because it's impossible right now, given how repressive it is. We're talking about people being arrested for laying flowers. What about, you know, what's going to happen to them if they openly challenge the government? Like, that is why we aren't seeing, you know, large protests now, because people are afraid. And I think the only way that Putin would be toppled at the moment is there would have to be some kind of revolution. And throughout this whole war in Ukraine, people have been looking for the cracks in Russian society. Like, you know, is state media,

are we seeing cracks in the state media narratives? Are we seeing cracks in the security services? And that hasn't been happening. So I think what the opposition would probably try to do, the opposition that's really, again, based outside of Russia, will probably use this time to figure out how to move forward, you know, what kind of candidates could they field in the future now that they, you know, that their most high profile one has died. But really, there is nobody within Russia right now that could mount any kind of challenge to Putin, even if there was somebody there that was high-profile and was well-liked and could be a successful political candidate.

Like, it is just impossible in the environment that's there right now. Breyer, thank you so much for this. This was really interesting, and it was so great to have you on. I know we talked before how this is my first show since coming back from maternity leave, and I'm so glad it was with you. Well, thank you. I'm very happy to talk to you. All right.

That is all for today. I'm Jamie Poisson. Thanks so much for listening, and we'll talk to you again tomorrow. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.