Futility Closet - 235-Leon Festinger and the Alien Apocalypse
Episode Date: February 4, 2019In 1955, aliens from the planet Clarion contacted a Chicago housewife to warn her that the end of the world was imminent. Psychologist Leon Festinger saw this as a unique opportunity to test a new th...eory about human cognition. In this week's episode of the Futility Closet podcast we'll follow him inside a UFO religion as it approaches the apocalypse. We'll also try to determine when exactly LBJ became president and puzzle over some wet streets. Intro: There's a hexagon of cloud at Saturn's north pole. You're not as unpopular as you think you are. Sources for our feature on Leon Festinger: Leon Festinger, Henry W. Riecken, and Stanley Schachter, When Prophecy Fails, 1956. Leon Festinger, A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, 1957. Joel Cooper, Cognitive Dissonance: Fifty Years of a Classic Theory, 2007. Camille Morvan with Alexander J. O'Connor, An Analysis of Leon Festinger's A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, 2017. Leon Festinger, "Cognitive Dissonance," Scientific American 207:4 (October 1962), 93-106. Stanley Schachter, "Leon Festinger," Biographical Memoirs, Vol. 64, National Academy of Sciences, 1994. R.B. Zajonc, "Obituary: Leon Festinger (1919–1989)," American Psychologist 45:5 (1990), 661-662. Michael S. Gazzaniga, "Leon Festinger: Lunch With Leon," Perspectives on Psychological Science 1:1 (2006), 88-94. Elliot Aronson, "Leon Festinger and the Art of Audacity," Psychological Science 2:4 (July 1, 1991), 213-221. Serge Moscovici, "Obituary: Leon Festinger," European Journal of Social Psychology 19:4 (July 1989), 263-269. Dion Scott-Kakures, "Unsettling Questions: Cognitive Dissonance in Self-Deception," Social Theory and Practice 35:1 (January 2009), 73-106. Stephen Cox, "An Experiment in Apocalypse," Liberty 24:11 (December 2010) 17-22. Louisa C. Egan, Laurie R. Santos, and Paul Bloom, "The Origins of Cognitive Dissonance: Evidence From Children and Monkeys," Psychological Science 18:11 (November 2007), 978-983. Merton S. Krause, "An Analysis of Festinger's Cognitive Dissonance Theory," Philosophy of Science 39:1 (March 1972), 32-50. Charles G. Lord, "Was Cognitive Dissonance Theory a Mistake?" Psychological Inquiry 3:4 (1992), 339-342. Betty M. Bayer, "Wonder in a World of Struggle?" Subjectivity 23:1 (July 2008), 156-173. Chris Mooney, "The Science of Why We Don't Believe Science," Issues 95 (June 2011), 27-32. Chris Bader, "When Prophecy Passes Unnoticed: New Perspectives on Failed Prophecy," Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 38:1 (March 1999), 119-131. Lorne L. Dawson, "When Prophecy Fails and Faith Persists: A Theoretical Overview," Nova Religio 3:1 (October 1999), 60-82. Jon R. Stone, "Prophecy and Dissonance: A Reassessment of Research Testing the Festinger Theory," Nova Religio 12:4 (May 2009), 72-90. Michael Barkun, "The Occultist and the Spaceman," in Cathy Gutierrez, Handbook of Spiritualism and Channeling, 2015. Diana Tumminia, "How Prophecy Never Fails: Interpretive Reason in a Flying-Saucer Group," Sociology of Religion 59:2 (Summer 1998), 157-170. Robert W. Balch, Gwen Farnsworth, and Sue Wilkins, "When the Bombs Drop: Reactions to Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Sect," Sociological Perspectives 26:2 (April 1983), 137-158. Daniel Finkelstein, "Prosecutors Don't Know How Biased They Are," Times, Jan. 24, 2018, 27. Matthew Syed, "Trial and Error," New Statesman 144:5288 (Nov. 13-19, 2015), 28-31, 33. "Leon Festinger, 69, New School Professor," New York Times, Feb. 12, 1989. Adam Grant, "The Virtue of Contradicting Ourselves," New York Times, Nov. 14, 2015. Kristin Wong, "Why It's So Hard to Admit You're Wrong," New York Times, May 22, 2017. John Tierney, "Go Ahead, Rationalize. Monkeys Do It, Too," New York Times, Nov. 6, 2007. Listener mail: Simon Usborne, "The LBJ Missal: Why a Prayer Book Given to John F. Kennedy Was Used to Swear in the 36th US President," Independent, Nov. 16, 2013. "About the Constitution: Article II: Executive Branch," National Constitution Center (accessed Jan. 25, 2019). Scott Bomboy, "How JFK's Assassination Led to a Constitutional Amendment," Constitution Daily, Nov. 22, 2018. "Art & History: Vice President of the United States (President of the Senate)," United States Senate (accessed Jan. 25, 2019). "Art & History: John Tyler, Tenth Vice President (1841)," United States Senate (accessed Jan. 25, 2019). Wikipedia, "William Henry Harrison" (accessed Jan. 25, 2019). Wikipedia, "Presidency of John Tyler" (accessed Jan. 27, 2019). "John Tyler," whitehouse.gov (accessed Jan. 25, 2019). "Amendment XXV: Presidential Disability and Succession," National Constitution Center (accessed Jan. 25, 2019). This week's lateral thinking puzzle was devised by Greg. Here's a corroborating link (warning -- this spoils the puzzle). You can listen using the player above, download this episode directly, or subscribe on Google Podcasts, on Apple Podcasts, or via the RSS feed at https://futilitycloset.libsyn.com/rss. Please consider becoming a patron of Futility Closet -- you can choose the amount you want to pledge, and we've set up some rewards to help thank you for your support. You can also make a one-time donation on the Support Us page of the Futility Closet website. Many thanks to Doug Ross for the music in this episode. If you have any questions or comments you can reach us at podcast@futilitycloset.com. Thanks for listening!
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome to the Futility Closet podcast, forgotten stories from the pages of history.
Visit us online to sample more than 10,000 quirky curiosities from Saturn's hexagon
to the illusion of popularity.
This is episode 235.
I'm Greg Ross.
And I'm Sharon Ross. In 1955, aliens from the
planet Clarion contacted a Chicago housewife to warn her that the end of the world was imminent.
Psychologist Leon Festinger saw this as a unique opportunity to test a new theory about human
cognition. In today's show, we'll follow him inside a UFO religion as it approaches the apocalypse.
We'll also try to determine when exactly LBJ became president and puzzle over some wet streets.
In 1934, an earthquake struck the Indian state of Bihar.
It was felt over a wide area, but the actual damage
was limited. Afterward, a strange thing happened. Rumors started to circulate that a worse disaster
was about to happen, a flood, a cyclone, or another earthquake. Psychologists found that
hard to understand. The prevailing theory at the time said that people respond to reinforcers.
If they're rewarded for a behavior, they'll pursue it, and if they're punished, they'll stop.
So why would people spread rumors that would increase their fear and anxiety? There seemed to be no
reason for it. A psychologist named Leon Festinger thought he saw an answer. The people who spread
the rumors had just been through a violent crisis and probably felt a strong reaction of fear,
but they hadn't suffered much actual damage. That created a conflict. They felt fear, but they
couldn't see anything to be afraid of.
So maybe they were starting the rumors in order to resolve that conflict.
By predicting a future disaster, they were finding a way to justify the fear and anxiety they felt.
Festinger and his colleagues spent seven years building that notion into a theory, which they called cognitive dissonance.
Essentially, it says that people feel discomfort if the beliefs they hold are inconsistent.
That can lead them to respond in dismaying ways.
If I'm invested in a belief and you show me evidence that it's wrong,
I'm more likely to reframe the evidence than to change my beliefs.
Festinger wrote,
A man with a conviction is a hard man to change.
Tell him you disagree and he turns away.
Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources.
Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.
Festinger found evidence for his theory in historical accounts of millennial and messianic movements. He found that when a prophecy failed to come true, believers who'd invested in it only
became more fervent and tried to convert other people. They felt genuinely troubled when their
belief was shown to be wrong, but since they'd committed to it in a way that was hard to give up,
they tried to reduce the conflict by convincing the people around them.
It was an intriguing theory, but Festinger had no way to test it.
He could only look for evidence in historical records.
But then one day in 1955, he saw a striking article in his local newspaper.
The headline read,
Prophecy from Planet Clarion Call to City, Flee That Flood.
The story said that a housewife named Marion Keech had received
messages from the planet Clarion warning that a great flood would inundate the earth on December
21st. These beings, who she called the guardians, had visited our planet in flying saucers and saw
fault lines in the earth's crust. They warned her that the flood would destroy most of civilization.
The story was bizarre, but Festinger realized it gave him a unique chance, a chance to
test his theory under natural conditions. He and his colleagues decided to study Keech and her
followers to see how they would react when the flood failed to materialize. Keech, the housewife,
had come to the prophecy through a strange set of circumstances. She had woken up one morning to
discover she had a gift for automatic writing. She could hold a pencil and it would write messages
guided by unseen forces. Those turned out to be spiritual beings from the planets Clarion and Cirrus,
and in April she started to receive messages from Sananda, who later identified himself as
the modern identity of Jesus. He told her to spread the word of his coming, and he promised
to return to teach her followers. She wasn't very successful in convincing other people,
but eventually she connected with Thomas Armstrong, a physician in Collegeville, a town about 200 miles away.
I should mention that these aren't the real names. Festinger wanted to protect their identities.
Armstrong and his wife were interested in flying saucers, and they decided that the Guardians had intended them to meet Marion Keech, who by now was receiving up to 10 messages a day.
I would like to tell you about the messages, but they are hard even to summarize.
My notes say they're an irrational, incoherent, and constantly changing set of ideas.
Basically, the Guardians were superior beings who wanted to advance our spiritual development
and to prepare us for certain changes.
They said, there is light, and it shall be revealed to you.
You are coming to the end of the Age of Darkness.
They made some small predictions of minor events.
They said that Keech would meet
a man or that she had to wait on a street corner for some unspecified event, but those led nowhere.
But then on August 15th, Sananda gave her a dire warning. He said that on December 21st,
a great flood would sweep the world clean, new mountains would be thrown up, and a cosmic house
cleaning would create a new order upon the earth. When Keech told Armstrong about this, he
mimeographed an open letter to American editors and publishers warning of the disaster. He sent it to 50 people,
but none of them asked for more information. In September, he sent a second release, and the Lake
City Herald sent a reporter to see Mrs. Keech. That interview led to the article that Leon
Festinger had read. In Festinger's theory, these warnings don't count as proselytizing. Sananda
had asked the group to spread the news of the flood, but he didn't ask the seekers to try to convince anyone.
He said that those who were ready would hear the message.
But the warnings were important in another way.
By making their beliefs public, the group members were committing to them, staking their public reputation to this belief.
If Festinger was right, that meant that if the prophecy failed to come true,
the group's members would be less likely to renounce their views and more likely to try to reinforce them by converting other people. At the moment, that certainly wasn't the
case. Even when Festinger and the other psychologists saw the story in the paper and approached her,
Marian Keech made no attempt to persuade or convert them. She described her beliefs but said
little about the cataclysm. But they learned that the Armstrongs ran a more active group that
followed Keech's teachings. They called themselves the Seekers.
There were 15 to 20 people who met on Sunday afternoons,
and they sent mimeographed excerpts of Keech's writings to a mailing list of about 200 people and organizations,
such as flying saucer clubs and metaphysical societies.
So in early November, members of Festinger's group approached the Seekers,
presenting themselves as ordinary people so they could observe the meetings firsthand.
Armstrong seemed pleased with their interest but didn't try to recruit them and didn't mention the flood or even the meetings at first. The Armstrongs believed that those who were ready would be sent
and weren't interested in convincing unbelievers. Armstrong told one student, you can't explain the
prophecy or the coming catastrophe to anyone who isn't ready, and those who are ready will be sent
to this house. As Festinger's observers established themselves in the group, they recorded what they found. Between mid-November and December 20th, they encountered 33 people who
either attended the Seekers' meetings or visited the Armstrong house on some errand related to the
movement. Of those 33, they classified eight as heavily committed, that is, they believed in the
flood and had taken some action that would be hard to reverse, such as quitting a job. Seven were
less ardently committed, and 18 were
more or less hangers-on. Let us pause here to admit that there are some problems with this study.
It's anecdotal, for one thing. It draws big conclusions from the limited experience of a
small group of people. And some of the investigators lied about paranormal experiences in order to get
into the group, which is an ethical problem. Also, there's the danger that all these undercover
scientists were influencing the proceedings. At one meeting, there were 10 group members and four observers, meaning that
nearly a third of the people there were scientists. They tried not to influence the discussion, but
just the bare fact of their attendance must have seemed like some kind of endorsement.
But the group members wouldn't have known they were scientists, right?
No. No, they were presenting themselves as just people who had an honest interest in this group.
But just by being there, they could make it seem like more people believed in these ideas than actually did?
Right. I mean, that stands to reason.
I see.
Which you can imagine would sort of reinforce everyone, even if they never opened their mouths.
One of the most committed believers was Armstrong himself because he'd been asked to resign from his position on the health service staff of a local college.
They'd received complaints that he was using his position to teach unorthodox religious beliefs.
He took it well. He thought it was part of the Guardian's plan, preparing him to leave this world for a better one.
But it meant he was really invested in that belief now. In a sense, he needed the prophecy to come true.
In late November, several other followers quit their jobs on orders from the
Guardians, but the group still wasn't reaching out to the public. If anything, they were trying
to maintain secrecy. At one point, some children told Armstrong they'd heard rumors about the end
of the world, and he dismissed them. And Marion Keech worried that her house was under surveillance
and took steps to avoid the attention of police. By mid-December, reporters were pestering Armstrong,
hoping to write humorous stories about the prophecy, and even some readers of the newspaper articles were making sincere inquiries about the
flood. Armstrong responded judiciously to all of these. He said they were not trying to get anybody
into anything. Throughout all of this, the tension was mounting because the group still hadn't been
told how they'd be saved from the coming cataclysm. Finally, at 10 o'clock on the morning of December
20th, Marion Keats received a message for the whole group.
It told them that at midnight they'd be put into cars and taken to a place where they would board flying saucers.
The message had arrived just in time.
The group believed that the world would be flooded just a few hours after that.
That evening, the group gathered anxiously at Marianne Keech's house.
Some of them had left jobs, schools, and even spouses,
or gave away money or possessions,
believing that the world they knew was about to be destroyed. They removed all the metal from their clothing, thinking it would burn
them on the flying saucer. Finally, Mrs. Keats received a message that a spaceman would come to
the door precisely at midnight to lead them to safety. At 1115, they put on their overcoats and
stood waiting in the living room. The clock's hands crept toward 12, reached it, and then passed it.
According to Festinger's theory, this was the critical moment.
The people who had committed to the prophecy now held two conflicting beliefs.
They had invested enormously in this belief, made great personal sacrifices,
and they could see now that it wasn't coming true.
We'd all like to live in a world where people in that position would simply give up their belief.
The evidence was plain that they'd simply been mistaken.
But we don't live in that world.
These people had invested too much in the belief.
They'd made commitments in their lives that would be difficult or impossible to undo.
They pressed Marian Keech for an explanation.
She insisted that there must be a plan.
The group must have failed to understand it.
While they were talking, one of Festinger's observers stepped outside to get some air,
and Armstrong, thinking he'd been disillusioned, dashed out to give him a pep talk.
What he said was an almost perfect endorsement of Festinger's theory.
He said, priests don't have it, and you have to look closely to find it even in the Bible. I've taken an awful beating in the last few months, just an awful beating. But I do know who I am, and I know what
I've got to do. I know I've got to teach, just as Jesus knew, and I don't care what happens tonight.
I can't afford to doubt. Festinger had predicted that once the prophecy failed, the seekers would
try to justify their beliefs by trying to spread them among other people. He'd written, if more and
more people can be persuaded that the system of belief is correct, then clearly it must, after all, be correct. That happened,
and it happened at 4.45 a.m., less than five hours after the prophecy failed. After a lot
of discussion, Mary and Keach received a message that the flood had been called off. The guardians
told her that the little group had spread so much light by demonstrating their faith that night
that God had decided to spare the world.
And that was followed quickly by another message, a Christmas message to the people of Earth,
with instructions to release it immediately to the newspapers.
That turned their failure into a success.
Their belief in the prophecy hadn't been wrong.
In fact, their belief had saved the world.
It also fulfilled Festinger's prediction.
In his 1956 book about all this, he wrote, The whole atmosphere of the group changed abruptly, and with it, their behavior changed too.
From this point on, their behavior toward the newspaper showed an almost violent contrast to
what it had been. Instead of avoiding newspaper reporters and feeling that the attention they
were getting in the press was painful, they almost instantly became avid seekers of publicity.
Keech told someone, this is the first time I've ever called them. I've never had anything to tell them before, but now I feel it's urgent.
So wouldn't a possible interpretation be, though,
that they believed they'd been, like you said, that they'd been successful,
so they'd been rewarded for being faithful because they'd saved the world.
And so it's not this cognitive dissonance thing.
It's not that, well well we have to convert other people
so we can justify ourselves but more the reinforcement of our faith our our belief system
has saved the world so we've been justified in being right yeah just a natural ebullience i
think that makes a lot of sense and apparently they were told to contact the newspapers by at least one of these messages.
Yeah.
So I was just wondering if that's another possible interpretation rather than Festinger's
interpretation.
It seems to me it is.
I think it's a very interesting study, but I think, yeah, it does omit of different
interpretations than it tends to get.
It occurred to me as I was researching this that there's some non-zero chance
that there really were spiritual beings
on the planet Clarion.
We have to keep that on the list somewhere.
I guess we can't know for sure.
Although I guess the example of what Armstrong did say
to the scientist who stepped outside,
I mean, that really did kind of illustrate very well
what Festinger would have predicted.
And this was, I mean, the principle of cognitive distance
was borne out in later experiments as well.
Armstrong and another believer took turns
phoning every major news service and local newspaper.
On December 21st alone, Armstrong and Keech
made five tape recordings for radio broadcast,
and over the next three days,
the group drew up new press releases
and lifted its ban on photographers.
They called in the press two more times
and granted extensive interviews to reporters.
Keech even received spiritual messages for them.
Where before the group had been almost secretive, now almost every visitor to the house was accepted.
In the end, of the 11 members of the Lake City group who had seen the prophecy fail,
only two completely gave up their belief in Mary and Keech's writings,
and both of those had only been lightly committed to begin with.
Five members came through the failure with their own conviction and commitment unshaken. The group did break up eventually, but not through lack of faith.
Ironically, their attempts to spread the word brought on such ridicule that they were unable
to continue. Festinger went on to study cognitive dissonance in many other contexts and found it
generally borne out. In one famous study, he and James M. Carlsmith asked subjects to do a boring
task, and then afterward, as a favor, they asked them to tell the next participant that the task had been enjoyable. They paid them either $1 or $20 for
that favor. Afterward, the subjects who'd been paid $20 had no trouble admitting that the task
really had been boring, despite what they'd been paid to say. The subjects who'd been paid only $1
were less willing to admit that. Instead, they tended to say that they had genuinely enjoyed
the task and had recommended it honestly. That seems to suggest that people are more comfortable telling a lie for $20 than for
$1. In the latter case, they may convince themselves they'd really been telling the truth.
Within a decade of Marion Keech's failed prophecy, Festinger's theory had generated over a thousand
experiments that revolutionized social psychology, looking beyond simple behavior to consider the
mental processes that lay behind it. The Duke University psychologist Edward Jones called the
dissonance research movement the most important development in social psychology to date,
and Leon Festinger became the fifth most cited psychologist of the 20th century.
His insights may have dismaying implications for human society,
but they explain interactions that all of us have every day.
Futility Closet is a full-time commitment for us and is supported entirely by our awesome
listeners. We are very grateful to everyone
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Closet going. We really couldn't do this without you.
The puzzle in Episode 224 was about how Air Force One has taken off one more time than it's landed because President Nixon's resignation took effect while he was mid-flight aboard Air Force One.
I covered some updates on this topic in Episode 229,
aboard Air Force One. I covered some updates on this topic in episode 229, mostly about Johnson's inauguration on Air Force One before it took off after Kennedy's death, and I have some more
updates today. Blake Helms wrote, Hi Sharon, Greg, and Sasha. I immediately knew the answer to the
puzzle about Air Force One because I've always been fascinated with presidential trivia. It also
brought to mind a couple of other things that I thought you might be interested in. There has been a lot of debate about whether a person becomes
president at the time of the swearing-in or at a specified moment. For example, the 20th Amendment
states, the terms of the president and vice president shall end at noon on the 20th day of
January, which moved the inauguration date from March 4th. Many scholars interpret this as a transfer that takes place to the new president-elect
at precisely noon Eastern Time on January 20th.
However, Article II, Section 1, Clause 8 of the Constitution states that
before he enters the execution of his office, he shall take the following oath or affirmation.
Some interpret this to mean that there is no president until the oath has been
taken, while others interpret this to mean that we always have a president, but he or she can't
begin making presidential decisions until the oath has been given. This is not normally a problem
since the oath is given during the transition, or in the case when January 20th falls on a Sunday,
in private before the official inauguration the next day. The problem arises when you have the
death of a president as in the case of JFK. The 25th Amendment states, in case of the removal of
the president from office or of his death or resignation, the vice president shall become
president. Depending on your view, LBJ became president at 1 p.m. Central Time on November 22,
the moment Kennedy was declared dead,
while others contend he didn't become president until he took the oath of office,
which is precisely why he insisted on being sworn in before taking off, as he wanted there to be no
question that any orders he might give were valid, since at this point we were not sure that this
wasn't a prelude to a Soviet attack. I thought this was a very interesting
point that Blake raised of when exactly does someone become the president, especially in the
case of the death of the existing president. It's kind of scary that something so momentous
hasn't been quite nailed down. With great specificity. Yeah. Because you can imagine
situations in which it would make quite a difference. Yeah, because you're in a kind of
crisis mode already. You'd want to be very clear about exactly who's a difference. Yeah, because you're in a kind of crisis mode already.
They want to be very clear about exactly who's in charge.
Yeah, I would think so.
And I wasn't able to find much that actually clearly answered this question.
Though oddly enough, I did find an article in The Independent from 2013
that stated quite plainly,
the moment a bullet had killed JFK two cars ahead,
Johnson had automatically become president of the United States.
Though they do note that,
I don't know what the Independent was basing their statement on, and I imagine they might have access to experts that I don't,
but what I found in looking into this question was that the U.S. Constitution,
as originally written, was rather vague about how exactly presidential succession would work.
The Constitution established the office of the vice president primarily so that there would be an available successor to the president, and in Article II, Section 1 states,
in case of the removal of the president from office or of his death, resignation, or
inability to discharge the powers and duties of the said office, the same shall devolve on the
vice president. But what exactly does that mean? Would the vice president simply be acting president
until a special election was held and another president was chosen? Or did the vice president
become the new president for the rest of the previous president's term? And did only the powers and duties of the presidency devolve to the vice president?
Or did the office itself?
This lack of specificity became a real issue in 1841,
when William Henry Harrison became the first U.S. president to die in office,
30 days after he was elected.
Many members of Harrison's cabinet initially called John Tyler
Vice President Acting as President,
and there was a bit of a debate in Congress over what powers Tyler had
and whether his title should be Acting President, Vice President, or President.
Tyler was determined that he was now President in all the fullness of that position,
and his view of the matter was widely enough accepted that it carried the day,
though he was popularly called his accidency. And it didn't help that Tyler wasn't very popular,
even within his own party. The Whig Party's leaders had chosen Harrison partly for his
malleability and lack of strong opinions. But when one of the party leaders, Secretary of State
Daniel Webster,
told Tyler that it was the custom to settle all administrative issues by having the cabinet vote
on them and the president only got one vote, Tyler replied, I am the president and I shall
be held responsible for my administration. I shall be pleased to avail myself of your counsel and
advice, but I can never consent to being dictated to as to what I shall do or not
do. When you think otherwise, your resignations will be accepted. Tyler went on to have a rather
contentious presidency, and the members of his cabinet did end up resigning. He battled mightily
with his own party, which actually finally disowned him and even tried to initiate the
first presidential impeachment proceedings against him. But the precedent that Tyler had established for the transfer of the presidency lived on.
It sounds as though, even then, it wasn't quite established formally, that it was really sort
of a precedent or that Tyler's authority was accepted rather than established.
Right, yes. It wasn't explicit in the Constitution as to how exactly this was going to work or what exactly Tyler was now.
So he just kind of sidled in?
Well, yeah.
Well, he kind of stronger than sidled.
But he kind of basically said, no, I'm the full president, and that's it.
And enough people said, okay, I guess we can go along with that.
That they just did it that way.
That they just did.
They swore him in and decided, okay, we'll consider him to be president. And then that just set a precedent for all the
following years. But a precedent isn't really quite a... Right, exactly. So there wasn't anything
explicit in the Constitution still about it, but they just sort of were like, well, this is the
way we did it, so we'll just keep doing it this way.
However, there actually was still no constitutional provision at all for filling a vice presidential vacancy, with no precedent even. one vice president who'd resigned, seven who died in office, and another eight who had taken over for presidents who had died, which left the office vacant until the next election was held 18 times.
Congress had already been debating a constitutional amendment to allow for the office to be filled,
as well as to specify various issues around the transfer of presidential power when Kennedy's assassination gave rather more impetus to that effort.
of presidential power when Kennedy's assassination gave rather more impetus to that effort.
The proposed amendment to address these issues passed in Congress in 1965 and officially became the 25th Amendment in 1967. However, at the time of Kennedy's death, this amendment didn't exist
yet, so I imagine that when Johnson took the office, they would have still been operating
under the precedent that Tyler had set set rather than any explicit constitutional language.
That's amazingly late in history for those questions still to be undecided formally.
Yes. Yeah, it is surprising.
I mean, you can understand how the first one kind of caught them off guard, like, oh, we didn't really think this through.
But then nobody said, you know, we ought to maybe do something about that.
Well, they had been debating it.
They just hadn't actually gotten there yet. But it is amazing to hear that the vice presidential slot was empty 18 times.
In episode 229, I also read a point raised by Jonathan Kaufman that if Johnson's inauguration
had taken place in the air rather than on the tarmac, then this might have meant that the
aircraft would have taken off carrying the call sign of Air Force Two, and then landed as Air Force One. And that
might have balanced out the change in designation from Nixon's resignation, leaving Air Force One
with an equal number of takeoffs and landings. Blake also followed up on this in his email.
The situation that one listener mentioned about Air Force Two becoming Air Force One nearly happened on March
20th, 1981, after Reagan was shot. If Reagan had died, the 25th Amendment meant that George H.W.
Bush would have become president while traveling back to D.C. on Air Force Two. Also, had Bush
chosen to invoke the 25th Amendment impairment clause while Reagan was in surgery, which several
members of the cabinet urged him to do but Bush never seriously considered, he would have become acting president and thus Air Force Two would
have become Air Force One. And I guess if that had happened, then we wouldn't have had a puzzle.
So good.
And Eric Waldo wrote, Greetings, podcasters and podcat. On the subject of having a different number of
takeoffs and landings, there's the case of Chuck Yeager. Twice he took off and had to bail out of
aircraft before landing, but most of his X-plane research flights were carried aloft by a bomber
aircraft with its own flight crew, released, conducted the planned testing, and then landed.
I don't recall the exact number, but over the course of his career, he has more landings than takeoffs.
There can't be too many pilots who can make that claim.
Maybe one of you can make a lateral thinking puzzle out of it.
Many thanks for the podcast.
That would make a great puzzle.
Might be hard to guess.
Thanks so much to everyone who writes into us.
We always learn so much from our listeners,
and we're really glad to get your comments and feedback. If you have any that you'd like to send, please send it to podcast
at futilitycloset.com. And I still really appreciate it when you include name pronunciation tips.
It's my turn to try to solve a lateral thinking puzzle. Greg is going to give me a strange
sounding situation,
and I have to work out what's going on, asking only yes or no questions.
In TV and movie scenes shot outdoors at night, the streets are very often wet.
Why is this?
Okay.
Do they spray them with something?
With water, yeah, presumably, yes.
They spray them with water. So the people making, presumably, yes. They spray them with water.
So the people making the movie
deliberately spray the streets with water?
Yes.
Before they start filming?
Yes.
Okay, why would you do that?
And this doesn't have anything to do
with the fact that a lot of movies
just happen to take place in the rain
or something, I don't know.
No, no, that's not it.
Okay, so they spray the
streets with water and they do this primarily at night as opposed to during the day? Yes. Okay,
does this matter where they are filming? No. Okay, so it doesn't matter, does it matter what
time of year it is? No. Okay, do they want the streets to look wet?
No, I wouldn't say so.
Do they want the streets to look not dry?
They want the streets to look not something.
Would you say that or no?
That's not quite right.
I wouldn't say that within the movie or TV show they want that effect.
They want that effect, okay.
Not for reasons of the plot or anything.
Okay.
Does this have anything to do with so certain things will make less noise?
Like if you're rolling a camera along the street or something, if it's wet, it'll make less noise somehow?
That's a good guess.
It won't raise dust?
Are they trying to clean the street first because they don't want there
to be debris on the street? No. Does it matter what kind of movie or TV show is being shot?
No, it doesn't. Okay. And they're spraying them with water specifically. Anything besides water?
Not that I know of. I mean, water would do the trick. Just water. And it's not that they're
trying to clean them or settle down dust or...
Do they want to change the appearance of the street in some way?
Yes.
They do want to change the appearance of the street.
Are they trying to obscure something that's on the street?
Cover up, obscure, or hide something that's on the street?
I think I'm going to say yes to that.
Hmm.
But spraying them would actually make them shinier.
So I was thinking maybe they're trying to avoid...
Does this have anything to do with light in any way?
It does have something to do with light.
They want the streets to reflect more light?
No.
No.
They want the streets to not reflect light. Yes. Somehow being wet will make
them reflect less light or less of a certain kind of light. You're very much on the right track.
Okay. Does this have something to do with the fact that they're using artificial lighting
in the filming? Yes. Okay. So you're using artificial lighting, but you don't want that
somehow to reflect in a particular kind of way on the street. Right. So if the street is wet,
that will somehow change the reflective abilities of the street.
I'm dancing around if I can't quite get it. Yeah, you're super close.
Okay, let me think.
Does it matter where the lighting is coming from?
It's just artificial lighting used in filming.
That's right.
Do I need to know anything more about the lighting?
No, I think that'll do it.
That'll do it.
You're so close, I'm wondering if I should just give it to you.
Just in regular life, if you see a street wet down, what essentially changes about its appearance?
I think of it as being shinier and more reflective, but apparently I'm wrong.
But about its color or its...
It looks blacker?
Yeah, that's basically it.
These scenes are often lit from multiple directions, which casts conflicting shadows and gives the game away.
The scene looks like a movie set.
So wetting the road removes that problem.
You don't see lighter shadows on the street,
only the reflections of lights
that are directly opposite the camera,
as you'd see in real life.
So the scene looks like an ordinary street.
Huh.
Basically, wetting the road kills the shadows.
Interesting.
I thought that's a clever and inexpensive solution
to a difficult problem.
Yeah.
We are always on the lookout
for more lateral thinking puzzles.
So if you have a puzzle that you'd like for us to try,
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Thanks for listening, and we'll talk to you next week.