Game Theory - MatPat's FINAL Theory

Episode Date: March 21, 2024

Join us all in celebrating MatPat's FINAL Theory! *Credits:* Writers: Matthew Patrick Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Tyler Mascola, Gerardo Andrés Mejía Torres, JayskiBean, Jerika (NekoOnigiri), AbsolutePixel and Shannon (Bomb0i) Sound Designer: Yosi Berman

Hello internet, welcome to game theory, where that is the last time that I'll be saying those words officially on this channel. Loyal theorists, how do you say goodbye? 13 years ago, I made you this promise. Do you want to know more about the games you love without having to put in any work of your own? Well, now you can play and learn. That's right, webovers.

We have created game theory, gaming's tangential learning. experience. Well, web-overse, here we are today. Three thousand videos of tangential learning later. How do you sum all that up? I already got super weepy in the last one of these things, so probably shouldn't do that again. It'd be redundant and probably not great for the tech equipment. We've also spent the last 10 weeks together knowing that this day was going to come, right? So I really feel like I've gotten my farewell tour. I've buried hatchets. I've rekindled friendships. I mean, sweeping videos about the state of online entertainment. Fired some tanks. That was legitimately very cool. I honored my heritage. I made Disney mad at me one final time, which you know felt appropriate

Got some new dripping and just in general sped ran my way through all the things that were left in my content creator bucket list So again I ask how do you say goodbye? First it's probably most important to remind you that it's not officially goodbye Right? It's not like I'm dying or anything. It's more of a see you later. I'm still gonna be doing plenty of stuff like I'm already booked to do the fashion show on style theory later this year I'm still gonna be here on the couch for GT Live. In a couple weeks, I'm gonna be given a speech over at Pax. I was recently in a kill count. Heck, I'm already slated to do the Jack Septuicai podcast, the Ludwig podcast. There's a collaboration I'm doing the Shaf Realist Productions. There's the FNAF musical over on random encounters. Like, I will be doing a lot and you will probably be sick of me doing all these things on everyone else's channels. But if you do want to stay in touch with me, there are actually two ways that you could do it. Normally I'd say something like, oh, you can follow me on Twitter, but we all know that there's like, a grand total of zero people who want to be over on that platform.

So instead, I decided to make you this. Br-Roo! A mysterious website named Where's Matpat.com? This is gonna be a place that I update every once in a while when I have news about some new project that's coming up or, you know, a mystery that you're gonna have to solve by digging through the source code. Yes, it's a ripoff of Scottgames.com. No, I don't feel bad about that because he stole enough of my ideas over the years. He kind of owes me one.

Editor should drop on some deal with its sunglasses in this moment. Yeah, that's a good one. Once you're there, make sure you sign up via email. Don't worry, I'm not gonna be spam any with updates or anything. It'll be more like a Matt Pat newsletter. Or maybe a Christmas card that you get every once in a while with a funny update, or maybe we could chat about a favorite movie or something. I'll send over the occasional video that I'm just inspired to make.

Who knows? Basically, this is just meant to be a way to let you all know what I'm up to directly in a way that isn't gonna be subject to filtering algorithms. Back to the question at hand. How do you say goodbye? Well, I think you honestly have to end it all where it began. This, this title, A Game Theory! About Game Theory.

Did you know that Game Theory isn't just a nerdy YouTube show? It's also a nerdy economics concept. Pooh-if that's news to you, I honestly can't blame you. At this point, we've created enough confusion online that apparently we've merited our own disambiguation tag on Wikipedia for Game Theory searches. In all seriousness, for the first five years of this show, I received so many tweets from people who are mid-year in their economics courses, screenshoting their textbooks, freaking out when they got to the episode on game... It's not an episode, it's a chapter.

When they got to the chapter on game theory, being like, oh my gosh, dude! Did you know that you were in this thing? And yeah, yeah, we definitely did. The pun, believe it or not, was intentional. In fact, Steph and I knew from the very beginning that it was likely that the final episode of Game Theory was going to be about Game Theory.

Why? Well, because game theory, it's everywhere. You can't escape it. If you've ever seen the movie Love Actually, there's actually this opening monologue in it that goes a little something like this. We live in a world of hatred and greed, but I don't see that. Seems to me that love is everywhere. If you look for it, you'll find that love actually is all around.

Now you just got to replace the word love with game theory, and you basically got it. We live in a world of hatred and greed. But I don't see that. Seems to me that game theory is everywhere. If you look for it, you'll find that... Game theory actually is. all around. Huh, who would have suspected that English acting megastar and recent umpalupa Hugh Grant would

be making a guest appearance in my final episode. Truly, truly, we have spared no expense for this one. And not only is game theory just everywhere, it also holds the secret to winning everything forever. Yeah, I know, right? That is a huge claim to make. Clearly, I was saving all my biggest secrets for the grand finale, so you know what? Let's not beat around the bush anymore, my friends.

Let's make you masters of the universe and reveal how whether you like it or not, you all, are theorists for life. Come on. This way. Yeah, we're moving off the couch this time. That's how you know it's a big deal. Let's go. At its core, game theory is the science's strategy. So we gamers, we understand strategy, but what exactly is game theory specifically? Well, to understand that, you have to go back to the original game theorist. Not me. This guy. This guy right here. He might not have himself the red leather jackets or the cool diamond play buttons, but I'll tell you what he does have. A crater on the moon named after. himself, so I'll let you decide who has the bigger flex there. This guy right here, he is mathematician John von Neumann and he was everywhere

Back in the day and I do mean everywhere like this guy was a key player in the invention of the digital computer He helped with the discovery of the structure of DNA even the creation of key components for Oppenheimer's Manhattan project You know the the Christopher Nolan movie where big things go big booms but perhaps his biggest claim to fame was game theory The idea that in any situation where there are two or more people or players in this case, you can model out a game that'll help you find the best outcome. Have you ever played rock paper scissors and thrown out rock as the first hand? Because you know, statistically most people choose their first move to be scissors? Or maybe you've picked paper because the last three moves have been rock

and they're obviously gonna be thrown rock again. Well, congratulations! That is game theory and action. And he got a medal of freedom for that. So it just goes to show, don't let your dreams just be dreams, kids. Sometimes getting an honorary medal is a lot easier than you think. In short, game theory is the study of strategic choice. It's math that tells you what people are gonna do and who's gonna win the game. Probably the most famous example of a game theory scenario is the Prisoner's Dilemma,

where two accomplices have just committed a crime, and they're both given the chance to Narc on the other one. If they both deny the crime, well, they both get a short prison sentence. If one of them denies the crime and the other rats them out, the Narc walks free, while his buddy is stuck in prison for a long time. And if they both confess, they both get a medium sentence. We can model the possible outcomes here in a nice, neat, mathy-looking square. And while technically the best outcome for both of them would be to trust,

trust each other and not confess, they're criminals. And they don't know each other that well. And because they don't trust each other, by the math, both of them narc on each other, and as a result, getting a medium amount of prison time. Or if that all's too complicated and hypothetical, over in England, they turn the whole thing into a game show where they say the word balls,

an uncomfortable amount of times. Welcome to golden balls. Balls of riches, 12 balls. My balls are all golden. 100 golden balls, and they're all bursting with money. Killer balls. Balls. Balls.

Now, why am I bringing you? all this up. Well, game theory is more than just wads of cash jammed into a bunch of balls. Someone should tell Mr. Peace that I just discovered his next video idea. No, it has very real consequences for the world. Back when the US and USSR were on the brink of atomic annihilation, the principles of game theory helped both sides reach an agreement to slowly disarm their nuclear arsenals. If you want to know more about that story, Veritasium's recent video on game theory does a great job telling it. And honestly, I can't really improve on it.

So, thanks for doing all the research for my final episode there, Derek. If you want an example that's a bit closer to home though Here you go. YouTube. It's got it. See, YouTube as a platform is just a bunch of zeros and ones, right? But YouTube as a community? It's a network of people constantly trying to make strategic decisions. Creators are players who are more or less rational people making videos that'll get you to watch and like and comment and subscribe You, the viewer, you're also a player in this. You're on a strategic mission to win the experience by finding the thing that's most satisfying to watch. And the people who run, or at least have, have run YouTube in the past. Shout out to Todd, Jake, Neil, Ernest, Meg, Ariel, Susan, David, Fed,

Feta, Vader, Stephanie and Kim. They're all in a strategic game to keep the creators and viewers happy. We'll also figuring out the best possible outcome for YouTube as a company by appeasing all the advertisers and shareholders. It is seriously a complex strategic arena. And that's why you get decisions like, use bright green text because it's more likely to stand out and see a dark gaming thumbnails and more likely to get clicks. Launch shorts as a means to counterattack against TikTok. Do a video on something. something that's not trending so you can stand out from the pack. Or maybe you'll lean in so you're suggested against the algorithm. Every video you watch, everything that you click on, it's the product of creators using game theory. Slap a big old game theory colon in front of every title and slam some clickbait green text on every thumbnail.

All those hundreds of millions of subscribers to Jimmy and Ryan Trahan and Cocoa Mellon, I like to think that they're all secretly ours. Where's our 200 million subscriber play button there, YouTube? In the end, it's all game theory. Speaking up, and this is Justin aside that I'm learned about earlier this week. Apparently there's a Chrome extension that allows you to do exactly what I just described. It quote unquote, Matt Patifies your YouTube feed by putting green text on like every thumbnail. Just saying we have reached the peak of human achievements. I for one really like this one where it's Link and saying mommy's hungry. That's just traumatic on a whole other level. Or there was one that I saw circulating online. Ryan Gosling doing a puppy interview and the title is birth of a killer.

There's another one that showed up on the subreddit. Afton's Final Death Smash? I gotta say, I am proud of the mark that I will leave on this platform. But so what, right? YouTube is Game Theory. Sure, that's great. It's interesting, but why does it matter to you? Why am I spending so much time talking about all of this in my final episode? Well, because like I said, game theory can help in every strategic interaction that you have. And it's produced a literal strategy guide on the best way to live out your life.

Tried and tested by all our grandfather theorists. But to truly understand that, we have to go back to where it all began, a glorified PowerPoint presentation. WebOverse! Allow me to introduce you to! Lights, please! The Trust Game! I love this. We started as glorified PowerPoint slides, and we're ending as glorified PowerPoint slides. Here's the TLDR of this one.

The Trust game was originally just named the Computer Tournament by a guy named Robert Axelrod. Clearly not the most creative with his titling conventions. Basically, this was the Prisoner's Dilemma, or the Golden Balls thing, except here, there were was one crucial difference. They're not just playing the game once, they are literally playing it hundreds of times, repeating it over and over again to see what strategies end up winning the most across a longer period. This then gives us a model that's shockingly closer to real life, because here, most of the time, you're not just thinking about what you have to do to win a single game, you have to actually think about the consequences of your actions.

The more people think about the future, the more they're willing to cooperate because they don't want to screw themselves over down the road, you know? Again, for details on that experiment, check out Derek Veritasium's video where he talks about all of that, including having an interview with the game's creator. It's a very cool video. I also borrowed his convention for that one, so thanks for the latter and the idea there, Derek. You can also watch Dr. Trevor Bassett's video on the topic, or the various TED talks that are all about this experiment. But just to jump to the big conclusion here, the best strategy to winning it big boils down to four key points. Number one, be cooperative, lead with trust.

Assuming that the person you're playing with is your enemy right off the bat, it's not going to serve you well. Trust in others, it's going to let you win more frequently in the end. Secondly, don't be a pushover. Sure, it's good to be trusting, that is great. But the second that someone takes advantage of your trust, the winning strategy is to call him out on it and then immediately hold him accountable. Which leads nicely then to point number three, being forgiving. Don't hold a grudge. Don't be a Mr. Darcy. My good opinion once lost is lost forever.

That is a failing indeed. You tell him, girl, you are exactly right. She's speaking some game theory truth right there. Well, sure, it hurts to have your trust broken. Staying open to the chance that other people can change, that they can grow and learn and get better, that is the ideal solution here. The trust game showed that players who held their opponent accountable,

but then forgave them actually won out more often than any other strategy. And lastly, it's important to be honest and open about your strategy. When people can't understand what you're thinking, That's then when mistrust starts to breed. By being honest, it breeds honesty in others. It allows you to build on that trust over time, one step, bit by bit. Across the thousands of rounds of testing, nice strategies that were fair, but also firm, ultimately won out the most.

Now, when I read these outcomes, what really struck me first was how they present a really hopeful view of the world. A hopeful view that I don't think a lot of us carry around a lot. I mean, it's easy to assume that everyone out there is out to get you. And it's easier to just close off to people who've wronged us in the past, but math and game theory specifically proves that assumption's wrong. And hey, if you don't want to believe the thousands of rounds of computer simulations, there is a very solid real-life example. YouTube.

YouTube is a positive sum game, which means that more than one person can win. And in fact, a lot of times, the more others win, the more you can win too. When I was just starting off, I was so mad and scared when Vsauce 3 released this video, calculating Sonic Speed. I'd been working for a year on the channel at that point, grinding away and seeing a fair amount of growth, but in that moment I saw a spin-off of one of YouTube's top subscribed channels just horning in on my territory of gaming science. It was like they were gonna steamroll me. They were gonna steal my audience away. So I did a video where I tried to stake my claim, and thus Sonic is Slow was born. Hello internet, welcome to game theory. Applying science to video games since April 18th of 2011. Recently, however, a new gaming scientist has come onto the scene.

The good folks over at Vsauce 3 recently took a gander at a game series I covered in episode 5. It's a great video, except for one thing, it's wrong. Listen to my voice in that. I'm so proud that I finally hit puberty, like seven years into making these videos. Anyway, you can tell that I'm super salty in this one, right? I'm asserting that I did it first. I'm citing the dates. I am literally trying to one-up V-Sos 3.

But then something interesting happened. I got views from Vsauce. I saw that their video and mine were actually helping each other. I was so afraid of me losing a year of hard-earned progress, but in reality, I wasn't just operating on my own island anymore. By unintentionally cooperating with each other, we had just created our own little micro-trend of gaming science content. There were clearly enough views for all of us.

Steph and I, in our years of consulting, kept hammering home this one point, that YouTube is a place where all ships can rise. Leading with trust goes a long way. From inviting someone to collab on your channel, to comparing notes on production because it can help you both. You actually see this kind of cooperative game theory and action with content houses, or projects like the QSMP where creators are helping each other and sharing audiences. On the flip side, there are creators who haven't done a good job of leading with trust, and who've approached YouTube as a zero-sum game, a place where there can only be one winner.

And guess what? Didn't work. Back in 2020, a few of the top beauty creators tried to take each other down, encouraging viewers not to watch each other, trying to turn audiences against people that they thought were their competitors. It was for the clout, it was for the views, and it backfired. In fact, it backfired so badly that all of their channels took a massive hit. And the beauty vertical, which was once a main pillar of YouTube's earliest days, never truly recovered. By working together, the platform thrives. Lights?

But by thinking that you can only win when other people lose, well, that's when everyone loses. It's kind of sad. Let's move on. But if you don't want to listen to mathematicians or YouTube meta-analyses, just look at me. Game Theory, THE SHOW, is a testament to those four lessons of game theory, the nerdy economics concept. Every person who's built this channel has led with trust. Ronnie, he put his own show on the back burner so he could dedicate his time to editing game theory, trusting that we would be able to succeed more together.

He helped the show to truly become what I had always dreamed it would be, and I honestly wish that he could be here to this day so I could thank him so much for that. The same is true for Gumba and Drake and Lee and Ryder, and Ryder and all the other partner shows who joined up with us in lieu of working on their own channels. Steph, she left being a consultant at a real company in the medical field on the belief that by cooperating, we could actually make something really special together. Jason, who is actually right here behind the camera right now, Jason, who you know as the guy that we blame all the time on GT Live, Jason was theorist's first full-time employee after me and Steph. He jumped in there when all we had was a kitchen table and a cat that he was constantly alerted to.

And Sudafed, you have this man to thank for your current net worth. And Zyrtec. And Zyrtec. You have taken so many pills over the years? I have. All medically prescribed, though, I promise. Yeah, no. Good medical pills, not anything sketchy, for sure.

But Jason is the man that we have trusted with the weight of the entire production process across all the channels for years. Like, this man is the unsung hero of everything you've probably ever watched across any of the channels. Without him, without you. Without you. None of these videos would get made. Don't get back there, okay? Enough of you. I gotta thank other people. You know, friendship first, but also working together to create awesome stuff, right?

And if you're talking about unsung heroes on this channel, there is one man who also deserves a call-out, and his name is Yose. He is our audio wizard. He is the man who I have trusted with my voice for the better part of nine years He has had to suffer through more hours of my voice than anyone else in the world I am so sorry Yosi I am so sorry for all the burps and weird edits and weird diatribes and jump scares that Ali has given me over the years Was Yose a pro when he first joined up with us? No, but you know what he was willing to do? He was willing to learn and I've trusted him with my voice for the better part of nine years and the same goes for another member of the team who you never gotten to see but was actually there before the channel was even monetized, which is kind of crazy to think about.

You don't know Dan Levitt, but Dan was another one. He was the first who actually saw potential in me and in these channels as a whole offering to become my manager even though he had never managed a YouTuber before. He just jumped in with two feet and said, hey, I've never gotten a brand deal in the past, but think I could do it for you. And he did. And then he got me literally hundreds more. He has his own management company now and he manages some of the biggest sports creators on all of you I can say with complete confidence that this company and my career would have looked totally different had it not been for Dan and And his career and his company would have looked totally different without me He and high have built businesses parallel to each other right next to each other using cooperative game theory for over a decade He trusts me to make good decisions on YouTube and I trust him to make good decisions as my manager and we both benefit in the long run But perhaps the most important person in all of these trusting relationships is you

You guys right here, I wear you on my wrist these days. You loyal theorists have been the best example of game theory in the history of the show game theory. Every time you click on one of these videos, you are leading with trust. You are saying, you know what? I'm going to give this one a chance, especially on those episodes that are covering topics

that you've never even heard of. And on my end, I've always tried my best to fulfill on that promise. And make sure that your trust pays off by delivering a great, well-researched, fun, a lot of times stupid video. And yeah, there have been plenty of times where I've missed the mark, where you weren't happy about a topic, or where I said something wrong, or my research was bad or whatever, and I needed to learn about that. And so you acting exactly as you should, according to that trust game, you called me out in those moments. You showed me that I had made a mistake. But more importantly, you were willing to forgive.

You gave me a chance to learn and grow as a creator and as a person. And look, look at this. We all won. look at this thing that we managed to build together. Don't tell anyone else. I mean, there's three of them here in the room, but like the rest of them downstairs. You guys, you've always been the most important member of this team,

whether or not you ever realized it. And now, as new hosts step in, yeah, they're obviously going to have to learn a lot, and they're going to have to earn your trust just like I did over a prolonged period of time. But I hope that you approach them with the same sense of cooperation and goodwill that you did for me all those years ago.

So while I might be leaving as host of this show, game theory, it'll never leave. It'll never leave me and it'll never leave you. We are all game theory, which honestly is why I thought it was fitting for you guys to be the one to say this. But hey! That's just a theory. It's just a theory. Just the theory. That's just a theory.

A game theory. Last dismissed. Thanks for the theories, Matt Pat. But hey, that's just a theory. Just a theory. Just a theory. Just a theory. Just a theory.

Thanks for everything. But hey, that's just a theory. That's just a theory. Just a theory. Theory. Theory. Theory. Theory. Theory. Theory. Theory.

Theory. That's just a theory. That's just a theory. That's just a theory. That's just a theory. That's just a theory. That's just a theory. That's just a theory.

A style theory. A food theory. A film theory. A game theory. Thanks for watching. Oh man. Where too? I got something I gotta do. Okay. Wait for road trip? I guess.

Let's go. You ready? Yeah. I've been expecting you. Come. We have much to discuss.