Game Theory - The TRUE Ending of Fallout

Episode Date: February 26, 2026

Does the Fallout TV show actually give us the TRUE canon timeline of Fallout? It’s been a while since we’ve covered this franchise and I think this is the perfect time to dive back in!

This is the Canon Fallout timeline. Thanks to the Fallout TV show and its tie-ins with the upcoming Fallout 5, we finally know how to play Fallout the right way. Well, kinda. Hello internet! Welcome to Game Theory, the show that will look for Canon Law outside the video game. Although, unlike some other examples of this, I've gotta say the one we're talking about today has been a joy to watch.

I'm of course talking about Fallout. It's been a while since we've covered this franchise over here on GameThames So for the Uninitiated, Fallout is a post-apocalyptic RPG series set in an alternate timeline where a nuclear apocalypse occurs in 2017, known as the Great War. We have different missions in each game and play as a range of characters, but ultimately, the series is about seeing how humanity has survived the fallout of those nukes. But in 2024, it became a TV series. It actually became one of the most successful video game to television adaptations to date. It's also one of Amazon's top four returning series ever. Only behind Rings of Power, which makes sense because, duh.

And Reacher? Wow, there's a whole world of television watchers I just have never met. Although, there is one television watcher I do know that may have a thing or two to say about all of this. Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, I told you last time Fallout is mine. I was there when... Yes, yes, you've been there since the beginning back when Fisto told you to assume the position. Look, I get it. But Fisto was in the show.

But... Since you kicked me out of your episode way back when, I've actually done my homework and dug into both the show and the original games. I'm actually a huge fan of games where your decisions matter, so I'm surprised I didn't pick it up sooner. However, while I was watching the show, I realized that with the existence of certain characters, locations and events, it would mean that our decisions in the game actually might not matter at all,

that there might be a canon and correct way to play these games in order to achieve the correct timeline. Well, if you have done your homework, then you'll know that the show isn't a direct adaptation of any of the games. Yeah, it takes place in the Fallout universe, but it's a completely original story. The writers of the show even said, We always wanted to avoid trying to make one canonical ending that led to the events of the show. I did know that, and so for a long time, I wasn't going to do this theory. But that was until Todd Howard did an interview,

where he said the events of the show either have happened or would be happening during the events of Fallout 5. which we might get in 2037. Which in itself is a sequel to Fallout 4, meaning it's all canon, and therefore there have to be canon and non-canon choices within the games. Good old God Howard. Hmm. But look, while I've done my homework and I feel pretty confident about this idea,

I could really use someone with decades' worth of experience, and someone who's more ingrained in the TV world. What do you say? Truths. You know what? It's a new year. Okay, truce. I'll also let you be in my episode. about how to survive Fallout 2.

But for now, let's see which of these choices make a permanent impact on the wasteland and which ones simply get lost in the heavily irradiated fog of war. That's the spirit. Let's figure out Fallout's Canon Timeline. There are five main series Fallout games that we should take a look at. Fallout 1, 2, 3, 4, and then Fallout New Vegas. Yeah, let's not touch on Fallout 76. It's a constantly evolving multiplayer game with like no real ending, and it's sort of isolated out in the Appalachian Mountains.

Don't get me wrong, it's still very much canon. It adds a ton of very important lore to the wasteland, but it's also so far back in the timeline and far enough away physically that it doesn't impact any of the main games. Fallout tactics and Brotherhood of Steel, on the other hand, are not canon. Why? Well, once again, Todd Howard said so. He does that a lot, doesn't he? You get used to it.

That mountain is not just a backdrop. You can walk all the way to the top of that mountain. Anyway, let's start with the first three games in the series. We can get through them relatively quickly because they're can. and endings are well established at this point. Fallout 1 takes place in 2161 in Southern California, where you play as the vault dweller. Just some dude in Vault 13 living a normal vault dwelling life

until the water purification chip breaks down. We quite literally draw the short straw and get sent out into the wilderness to find a new one. No pressure, though. The ending focuses on a character called The Master, a creepy mutant who is trying to make a super mutant army known as the Unity. You can either join the Master in his plan to overtake the wasteland, or totally destroy him.

Luckily, figuring out what actually happened at the end of the game is super simple. Fallout 2's entire existence depends on a specific ending of the game happening. Which is then reaffirmed in the Fallout 2 Game Guide. By killing the master and saving the vault, the vault dweller returns to their vault only to be turned away. You saved us, but you'll kill us. I'm sorry, you're a hero, and you have to leave. The TV show also suggests this to be canon, because if the Super mutant armies were successful, well, The wasteland would probably look a lot different and way more mutiny. Yep, which leads us directly into Fallout 2.

It's now 2241, 80 years after the original game, and we play as a character called The Chosen One, the grandchild of the Vault Dweller, who also founded the city we're now in in Northern California. So close enough to be important, but not super close. Once again, attaining drinkable water is the main focus of this game. It was a simpler time. But along the way, you're interrupted by a group called the Enclays.

who are like the remnants of the old United States government. Think like the men in black from pop culture, but with like big energy weapons and power armor. They kidnap people from your town, as well as Vault 13, with the intention of using them as test subjects to further their means. Oh, so just the best people. Absolutely, which kind of explains why Fallout 2's ending is a bit less of a choice. You just wipe out the enclave and explode their super secret oil rig base.

But there are some optional decisions that are shown to be canon thanks to new VIII. Like, we hear about a Mr. Bishop, who is the chosen one's son, which means you canonically have to sleep with either Leslie or Angela Bishop in Fallout 2, or that you have to complete the Volt 15 deal with the New California Republic, allowing them to expand into Northern California and leading to their rise as a political superpower. But before getting to New Vegas, we have Fallout 3, where you play as the lone wanderer. They were raised by Liam Neeson in Volt 101, but technically they weren't born there. It's complicated. Don't worry about it today.

Long story short, you stay there for 19 years until your daddy Liam decides to jump ship. So, you escape to try and find him. You are successful, but the enclave is also looking for your dad. Wait, didn't we just destroy those guys in Fallout 2? Yes, but it's a big organization. And Fallout 3 takes place in Washington, D.C. in 2277, about 36 years after Fallout 2. So think of it kind of like a different branch of the enclave. And since they're the remnants of the US government, yeah, of course they'd be in DC.

Well, those awesome guys are also looking for your dad because he was creating a water purifier capable of providing millions of gallons of drinkable water. Yes, yes another drinking water-based plot line. And again, the enclave want to use this project to poison everyone. Just the best. The main quest line comes down to two major choices. One, do you explode the enclave again or leave the military complex untouched? And two, do you turn on this water purification system? Do you poison the system with super mutant juice?

Or do you let it explode? Funnly enough, the canon choice for both of these endings is established not by the next game, but by its own game guide. There's an afterword section written by an in-game MPC called Moira. During the game, she gives you a side quest to help her complete the survival guide, the completed version of which can then be found in Fallout 4. So, not only is that optional side quest canon, it also should be a side quest, it also should be a complete to shows us that she's a trusted documentarian of the Fallout world.

So this afterward should be taken seriously. In it, she states that the Wanderer exploded a mountain. So I guess they did blow up the enclave again. Pretty much. Moira also mentions that the purified water is very helpful to the wasteland, meaning that we activated the system and didn't poison it. Finally, you can recruit a character called McCready as a companion in Fallout 4. That means the lone Wanderer didn't go crazy and kill all of those obnoxious

cretons in little lamp lights. And speaking of, let's talk about Fallout 4. Hey, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, new Vegas is next in the timeline. Come on, Tom, I thought you said he did your homework. What are you doing? Don't make me look stupid here. I did. Trust me, we will get to New Vegas. I know it's the goat. But honestly, while Fallout 4 is a little more complicated than the previous three, it doesn't hold a candle to New Vegas, especially with season two of the show being all about it. So I wanted to save the best for last. Sound good? Okay, fine, I suppose that makes sense. Thanks for your understanding, buddy.

I promise you it will be worth it. Right. In Fallout 4, you play as the sole survivor whose story actually starts before the bombs drop in 277. You and your family escape to vault 111 as the Great War starts, but you get cryogenically frozen. While in the vault, they watch someone kill their partner and take their son. Eventually, they're completely unfrozen in 2287 and set off on a journey across the Boston Common wealth to bring their son home. Along the way, you meet a bunch of factions like the Institute, who are supergenieces that build very live-like robotic synths, the railroad who believe those

synths are sentient and want to help them escape, the Minutemen who are kind of like a militia of settlers, another settlement has sent word that they need our help. And the techno-religious Brotherhood of Steel, who you may recognize from the show. Dang, they're in like all of the games, and this is the first time they're important to an ending? Well, Sarah from Fallout 3 is from the Brotherhood. But then they're kind of the only faction you can side with, so it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. But in Fallout 4, you do have more choices. And this is where the main quest line comes to a climax.

If you side with the Institute or the Railroad, you launch an attack on the Brotherhood of Steel and destroy their airship. Initiating directive, 7.3.9.5, destroy all communists. But this almost certainly isn't the canon ending. In season 2 of the show, we meet Zanda Harkness, who is actually from the Commonwealth chapter of the Brotherhood of Steel, and Elder Maxon, the leader of the Brotherhood in Fallout 4, is confirmed to be alive and well in episode 4. All we hope is that Elder Max will remember us better in the future. If you side with the Institute or the Railroad, you have to kill him, so it can't be canon. So that leaves us with two possible endings, Brotherhood of Steel or Minutemen.

The Minutemen ending is arguably the most peaceful. You have the ability to spare both the Brotherhood and the Railroad while still eliminating the Institute as a threat, and after blowing up the Institute, everyone still alive is pretty happy. And now fully rebuilt, the Minutemen appear all over the wasteland, happily guarding their fellow man. Guess we're not going to be short of recruits now, uh, general? In the Brotherhood ending, however, you blow up the Institute with the help of everyone's favorite communist fighting robot. Emprice democracy, or you will be eradicated. God bless that machine.

And even though their main mission is over, the Brotherhood don't leave the Commonwealth. So this is where things get a little less definitive, because technically speaking, either of these endings could be true. There is nothing in any of the games or the TV show that definitively disproves one or the other. However, we believe the most likely option is the Brotherhood ending, because while the show doesn't actually disprove the Minutemen, there's no mention of them at all so far, and there are a couple of things in the show that do seem to line up with the Brotherhood ending.

For example, in the Brotherhood ending, if you chat to some of the remaining soldiers, you'd learn that the Brotherhood is hurting. This victory cost us a lot of lives, so you'll have to forgive me if I don't jump for joy. The attack on the Institute depleted a lot of their resources, not just physical resources either. They lost a lot of soldiers in the battle. This lack of manpower is then hinted at by Xander during the show. We are really up against it back home. Without that relic you found, we risk losing the Commonwealth. Plus, in the Brotherhood ending, the Brotherhood is defending a

all military checkpoints instead of the Minutemen, which would require a ton of resources, especially with limited numbers, giving them the perfect reason to be seeking the TV show's McGuffin Cold Fusion now more than ever. The sole survivor's backstory would also fit the Brotherhood ending better. Before they were made into a human popsicle, the sole survivor was either Nate or Nora. Nate was a former soldier who served in the US Army at some point before the war. You're going to knock him dead at the Veterans Hall tonight, hon. Nora was a lawyer, but was also incredibly proud of her husband and his service. I'm so proud of him.

So it seems like they were both on the same page. The Brotherhood of Steel was actually founded by members of the U.S. Army shortly after the bombs originally fell, which means that a lot of the Army's core values are still reflected in the Brotherhood's goals all of these years later. It makes a lot of sense that someone like Nate or Nora, two individuals who have already dedicated their lives to serving America, would find a lot of comfort in the Brotherhood of Steel and ultimately align themselves with their morals and side with them at the end of Fallout 4. No, it isn't direct evidence, but narratively, it just feels more satisfying as a canon ending, right?

So, that's Kill the Master, Destroy the Enclave, destroy the Enclave again, and side with the Brotherhood as the canon choices so far. But now, for the moment you've all been waiting for, let's talk about Fallout New Vegas. The best one. The whole reason why we made this video and probably the reason why you're watching in the first place. God, finally! Fallout New Vegas starts in 2281, 15 years before the events we see in the television. show. In this game, you play not as a vault dweller or a dweller descendant, but as courier

six. A glorified Amazon delivery driver. And at the top of the game, you get a bullet to the brain. Truth is, the game was rigged from the start. Miraculously, they survive, and after some recovery, you leave with the goal of getting revenge on whoever put a hole in your head. But along the way, you get caught up in all the weird politics of the Vegas strip, a strip that was much more lively than it is in the TV show. Back then, it was filled with life and people rather than just death clause. So the political situation was a little complicated. There are four major groups who are constantly fighting for control over New Vegas and the Hoover Dam.

There's the New California Republic, who we mentioned from Fallout 2, and we see in the show. They're trying to uphold democracy and liberty and law, that sort of stuff. But their military presence isn't exactly welcome. If you're not really into the whole democracy thing, you can choose to side with Caesar's Legion instead. to want to be Roman centurions who love slavery and hate women. One side is murdering people, enslaving them, crucifying them, and the other side is just vaguely problematic. But you can also side with Mr. House. He's an eccentric billionaire who built a missile defense system that saved Vegas when the bombs first dropped.

Or if none of those options are appealing, you can choose to put yourself in charge of everything, with the help of an AI program called Yes Man. And since there had been no other Fallout games taking place on the West Coast after the events of New Vegas, The only way we could figure out exactly what happened here is by looking for clues left behind in my neck of the woods, the TV show. See, I knew keeping you around would be useful. Don't patronize me. You would have no chance without me. Anyway, we've seen that a character named Fisto is alive and well. See, he's right here in the show.

Fully integrated security technotronic officer active in reporting for duty. Since the courier has to personally activate this guy during the Wang Dang Atomic Tango quest line, that means that the courier does officially exist. made it to Freeside. Then Maximus and Xander encounter this Securitron. They promptly shoot the heck out of it, but if you look closely at its face, you'll notice that its display is a photo of an American soldier in a combat helmet with a cigar hanging out of its mouth. This means that it's actually a Mark 2 Securitron, proving that the courier has made it far enough into the game to activate these securitrons either with Mr. House or the Yes Man. The problem is,

both of these quests can be done before you have to pick a definitive ending, meaning you can activate the giant robot army and then go completely off course with the Legion or the NCR. So, not super definitive. But we're not done. In the show, the NCR is very obviously not doing so hot. We're winning the war. We are. Well, if this is winning, I would hate to see what losing looks like.

As far as the Legion goes, it's nowhere near as powerful as we see it in New Vegas. Plus, we see Caesar's cold dead body splitting what's left of the Legion in half. If you side with the Legion in the game, you either cure Caesar's brain tumor, or you let Caesar die on purpose. Kaiser is dead at your hands. This crime cannot go unpunished. So the fact he died in a different way would definitely indicate that the Legion ending isn't canon.

So I think it's safe to narrow it down to just the yes man or Mr. House endings. Now, at first we thought it had to be the Mr. House ending because the ghoul runs into this Securitron named Victor during season two, episode three. Hi, I'm a partner, that's you, Victor. Victor was special because he had a unique personality, matrix given to him by Mr. House.

Once you get to the Lucky 38, Mr. House's casino, Victor acts as a sort of bellhop, just like we see when Cooper visits Mr. House in the pre-war. Howdy, Martin? He stays at the Lucky 38 until you either decide to support Mr. House or go against him. If you betray House, Victor goes offline and you can even find his empty robot body, so Victor being around suggests that House won. But then, at the end of season 2, episode 4, during the end credits scene, you see Mr. House's chamber in bad condition. There is a bullet hole through the glass and a notably shrively hand sticking out of it.

Then in episode 8, Mr House tells us... Over the years, my body became something of a target for wandering travelers with something to groove. I have been poisoned, shot, bludgeoned with a crowbar. Which sounds very similar to the achievement you can get during the yes man storyline if courier kills Mr. House with a golf club. True. There's also the state we see the strip in during the show. Death Clause are wandering the streets. The casinos are destroyed. Whoever has been to Taking care of Vegas has not been doing a good job. During the Mr. House ending, he tells you all about his plans for New Vegas.

And given his ability to predict the future and make New Vegas a thriving metropolis the first time around, it makes this place being a wreck feel out of line with his plan. Okay, I see. So you're suggesting that it's more likely the Yes Man ending because that puts the courier in charge, which literally creates anarchy in Vegas. Anarchy rule the streets. Independent Vegas was even more unstable and violent than before. Exactly.

I mean, 15 years later, during the event of the show, Vegas looks pretty anarchic to me. Okay, I can see that, especially after season 2 episode 7 of the show, where Cooper finally makes it to the top of the Lucky 38. Here, he's greeted by this screen, which once again implies Mr. House has been disconnected, and it looks incredibly similar to this scene that appears when you do the Yes Man ending of the game. And if that's not enough proof, well, we literally see a Securatron that is probably Yes Man's body next to the computer, just like when he uploads himself in the game. I guess the house doesn't always win.

Apparently, he could predict the bombs, but he couldn't predict a psychotic mailman and a jailbroken robot. I don't like unknown variables. There is still the lingering issue of Victor, though. If Yes Man won, then how is Victor still alive? Well, that we don't have a perfect answer for. If I were to speculate, I mean, well, he could have just turned back on at some point between this ending and the start of the show. I mean, he's a robot, and Securitrons kind of do that across the series, so it's a robot. not completely out of the realm of possibility.

I'd also say that just because the Yes Man ending seems to be the canon ending, with Mr. House being dead in his pod, don't think that means for a second that he's dead dead. Mr. House is incredibly smart. He founded Rob Coe in his garage at only 22 years old, and within years it became one of the most profitable companies in the world. His mind is behind most of the weird retro-futuristic technology we see throughout the Fallout franchise. The man always has a plan.

Correct. and that is being emphasized a lot in this season of the show. He always has some sort of fail-safe. He calculates every possible outcome and every possible solution. And so his big goal is to acquire the all-powerful Cold Fusion in order to upload his consciousness to an AI. It will allow me to stay alive indefinitely, in roboticized non-biological form,

and protect Las Vegas from the coming nuclear war. Fortunately for him, he never got a hold of Cold Fusion before the war, meaning he had to protect New Vegas the old-fashioned way. You know, with his body, blocked in a claustrophobic life support chamber, which is how the courier finds him in New Vegas. But in Season 2, Episode 7, we see that once Cooper hands over the cold fusion, a computerized Mr. House wakes up and recognizes him. Well, hello, chum. So clearly, he did succeed in uploading his AI consciousness. He just didn't have the power to run it, which means when Fallout 5 comes around, House 2 will likely be there with us, having been woken up or in the process of waking up thanks to the ghool.

Yep. And the Brotherhood will control basically all of the East Coast, the NCR will be in ruins, and Caesar's Legion will be rebuilding under the leadership of Kevin from home alone. And it'll all take place in San Francisco. I mean, you do know that's just a rumor, right? Yeah, but with Bethesda asking Obsidian Entertainment to remove lines about San Francisco getting nuked by the enclave in order to keep options open for future games, and there being a bunch of references to San Francisco in Fallout 4,

you can call it a rumor, but personally, I'd call it a theory. A game theory! Thanks for watching.