Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 4 Best Bets: Divisional Round

Episode Date: January 14, 2021

Gear up for the Divisional Round with Geoff and Matt. They discuss all four games, offer insights into the spread, the total, and offer some fun props as well. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday january 14th it is divisional round action and we're here to cover it on the jeff schwartz is smarter than you podcast i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford and matt i think we did a good job last week we got to my count we kind of gave like seven bets and then we hit four of the seven and we got five or six games pretty much down to what we thought they were going to be. Obviously, Brown Steelers, not so good. And the bet I lost in that one, I told you guys, was Baker Mayfield under passing yards. He averaged like three and a half yards per air attempt. It wasn't like a bad bet.

It was just we kind of got a bad beat on that. And look, we nailed the first game. Colts, Colts, Bills. We got the Ravens correct on this one, which we love the Ravens. So how are you feeling this weekend? I'm feeling pretty good. My Taylor Heineke jersey hasn't arrived yet, so I'm a little upset about that. But no, it was a fun weekend.

I ended up getting on the wrong side of a few numbers, and I was on the Titans, so I took a hit there. But it was a really fun weekend. And the wildcard weekend, I loved the six games. Bless you. I loved the six games. It was a blast. I mean, there's a lot to talk about. You guys did a lot of it already.

But yeah, I don't know. It was fun. I think this weekend's going to be even better. So before we move on to the games this weekend, as a Washington football fan, congratulations on finding your future backup quarterback for many years. Yeah. How do you feel about Doug Peterson getting fired? We kind of reacted to that a little bit on Tuesday,

but that's still kind of a story. And the Eagles' job kind of sucks. So as a Washington football fan, how do you feel about that job being open? They will not do better than Doug Peterson, right? I mean, they're a mess. I wish I had the numbers in front of me, but I think they're something like 90 million

over the cap next season. I shouldn't be just making the numbers up, but if they cut, I know that if they cut to Sean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey, they're 70 million over the cap still. And those are the obvious ones. So they're a mess.

And I don't know why they moved on from peterson i assume it had something you know to do with the relationship with wentz but i don't know man like they for for this little bit of time they have the most valuable asset in football which is that rookie quarterback on that contract and their team is so screwed that they're not gonna be able to capitalize on it so i feel bad for him man i i mean i heard the jets might might be interested in him. So I think that'd be a nice fit for him. It feels very clearly like this was a decision made by Doug Peterson himself

because they give him no say whatsoever at all in the personnel. I mean, I get there's a good way to run a team is typically to have separation of powers, right? The GM chooses the personnel and the coach just coaches them. But you have to have some cohesion in this, right? You have to have some idea of who you guys want, of who fits your system. And Howie Roseman kept drafting guys that weren't any good and then kind of blamed Doug for it all. So I think Doug was like, screw it, I'm out. But yeah, it's still a story

and we'll see who gets the job. There's seven openings this year, seven openings and no one's been hired yet. Lots of people floating around and we'll see who gets hired. But there's not a job open this weekend. We got eight playoff teams,

four will advance to the conference championship weekends and I think three of the games we are like, we are in on. Tampa, New Orleans, which we'll talk about, I think it's the last game are like, we are in on. Tampa, New Orleans, which we'll talk about, I think it's the last game we'll talk about. It's Auburn, there's a game with two Hall of Famers playing.

We're just like, I don't know what to do in this game. So let's start with the game that I like, aside in this one. Start going, buddy. Well, let's do it. We'll go in order. So we're taping this Wednesday night. Currently, the Rams are six and a half point dogs at Green Bay.

It's gone six and a half, seven. What side are you on? So I kind of like Green Bay here under a touchdown. And this line opened at seven and kind of was bet down through seven. I'm kind of surprised it was. And I feel like this is a little bit of a reaction to the Rams winning this past weekend. There's chatter now that Jared Goff might not start. They might go back to Wolfe.

Jared Goff was benched. He was benched. He dressed. I know he had the thumb injury, but he dressed last weekend and had to play because Wolfer got hurt. But he was benched, guys. He was absolutely benched. And we have a Green Bay team

who is rested. They're relaxed. They know this offense the Rams run because guess what? Matt LaFleur runs a lot of the concepts in this offense. There's a lot of talk about the Packers offense against the Rams defense, which is great, right? Because the Rams defense is

number one in pass defense, number one in deep passing. We talked about all this last week about why we kind of like the Rams, I think, against the Seahawks as far as getting the points there. Devonta Adams against Jalen Ramsey, they're all great matchups. But on the flip side, though, I don't think the Rams are going to score a lot of points. That's a big part of this. Jared Goff is not good in cold weather. Not good in cold weather.

All the stats back it up. He's only had two starts when it's under 35 degrees, and his passer rating is 34.5. Wow. He completes 47%. Now, in a little warmer weather, though, 36 to 50 degrees, he's only completing 54% of his passes. It's not that much better when that happens.

Since week 10, he has the eighth worst passer rating when trying to throw the ball 10-plus yards. He's not a good quarterback. He's very one-dimensional. And now you have a Packers defense that's getting better. Their run defense is not great, but with Jair Alexander on the outside, they can focus a lot of attention on shutting down the Rams' running game. And here's one specific place where the Packers have a big advantage.

It's play-action pass. So for years, and Rodgers has talked about a big advantage. It's play-action pass. So for years, and Rodgers has talked about this, they didn't use play-action pass with Mike McCarthy, and he was a little bit against it last season. From 2016 to 2019, the Packers only used 19% play-action pass on Rodgers' throws. He completed 63% of those. And we know play-action pass are long down-the-field throws. They're big gains.

This season, they're up to 28% of his passes are play action passes completing 73 percent of those passes 20 touchdowns no interceptions off the run fake but here's why it's important specifically in this game the packers uh excuse me the the rams defense allows four and a half yards of separation on play action passes. They're not good against play action passes. They're good against drop back pass. So this is very specific. I know it's very specific,

but the Packers are good at it. The Rams are not. I think it's one place we get a lot of value in the Packers offense. I like the Packers minus six and a half. Yeah, I do too. I'm wary of it because it's going to be the public side um but i'm with

you a few trends to look at uh rogers of course off a buy he's uh 10 5 and 1 against the spread uh he covers 63 of his games at home in general um the packers look i i kind of think you're getting a little bit of a bargain on them, despite them being public, because the Rams surprised people last week. And we've talked about this. The Rams, I think, are just sort of a tough matchup for Seattle. I've heard a lot of people talking about the height of the D-line for the Rams, and it's tough for Russ to sort of see over those guys. Like Brockers and Donald are just huge. So that's interesting.

You know, the Rams may have just sort of gotten lucky last week. I mean, Goff was 9 of 19 for 155. You mentioned the cold weather. That's not a great spot for him. The Rams are also banged up. I mean, Cooper Cup, he's banged up. He's still, of course, you know, maybe recovering from the COVID situation. Aaron Donald, of course, banged up.

It just doesn't feel like they belong in the same class as the Packers. And the other thing is this Adams and Ramsey thing that everyone's digging in on and saying, you know, if you take away Adams, what is the Packers offense? Well, last week, Ramsey did great against DK Metcalf. Metcalf only had 33 yards lined up against Ramsey. But if you recall, he had 96 yards and two touchdowns. They move him around the field. He's not going to shadow Adams every play.

And Green Bay knows that. They're going to get him loose, and he's going to do what he does. So look, number ones against the spread since 2004, 11-22-1 against spread. Not great. But I do think that Green Bay can buck the trends here. Those are great numbers. I want to reiterate this point. The Rams benched Jared Goff last weekend, okay?

So we're going to have a Packers team that's playing really good football. The Rams are going on the road, and they don't trust who the quarterback is. Their defense is really good. I get that. That's right. But since week four, the Rams offense has scored over 27 points just twice. One of them was last weekend. And that

wasn't even their offense because they had a defensive touchdown, right? So they don't score a lot of points. So let's say they scored 21 points. The Packers, I think, scored 28. I have 31-20 as the final score in this game. I think the Packers, we've seen time and time again, these number one offenses in this situation. And Packers aren't number one per se, but a great offense over time when the opposing office doesn't score, that defense wears down. So I'm Packers here, minus six and a half. Do you have any other exotics to look at or a total? Not in this one. I have a lot more in other games, but no, it's props Wednesday up. I would look at Devontae Adams over. I think that number will be lowered

because of Jalen Ramsey. I don't know what it's at now, but it feels like that's a spot to get him in. And Jared Goff under. Whatever Jared Goff's number is, just take the under. I've got one for you, Jeff. You're going to like this one.

So I don't know the numbers yet, but I would be very intrigued about Robert Tunyon's props. So the Rams defense, they're number one in DVOA against number two wide receivers. So they're going to be keying in on Adams, but they tend to do well against those number twos. Tunyon, excuse me, to score is one I'd be interested in. Rodgers is going to have to find that safety valve. But here's the best stat about the Rams defense.

So they gave up seven touchdowns to tight ends this year, which is middle of the pack. But they gave up seven touchdowns to wide receivers all season, which is best in the league. So if you're going to score through the air on them, you're probably going to do it with your tight end. And Tunyon had double-digit touchdowns this year. So I think that could be a sneaky one to get some value.

Oh, I love it. That's fantastic. Love it. That's why you come here, for some odd props. That's right. Love it. All right. Well, that's my smartest thing of the week.

Let's move on to the Saturday night game. Man, this one's so great. The Baltimore Ravens are going to Buffalo. Buffalo is laying two and a half currently. Thoughts? Yeah, I like the Ravens' money line. I wouldn't even take the two points. I'd just go straight money line here, and I'll explain why.

It's the Bills' rushing defense is god-awful, okay? Their rushing defense is 23rd according to EPA, which is expected points at their 25th in yards per attempt, and they're ranked 31st by Pro Football Focus. And if you look over the last three months, when the Bills have played close games, whether it's the Chiefs, the Patriots, the Cardinals, who they ended up losing to in the Hail Mary, and now the Colts, what's the theme about why those games are close? The opposing team rushes the ball, right? The Cardinals rush for 217.

The Chiefs 245. Patriots 188. And Colts 463. And look, the Bills won that game. Credit to them. The Colts should have won that game. First team in playoff history to have 450 yards and no turnovers and lose a game. The Colts outplayed the Bills.

Now they get a really hot Ravens team coming to town. Number one rushing offense in the NFL. We've known the last five games, excuse me, six games. They're averaging 262 yards on the ground per game. Lamar Jackson is playing a lot better than this offense. And the reason why, guys, we talked about this last week, is they're spreading things out on offense. Guess which defense the NFL, Matt, is the worst in the NFL

at stopping the run against a light, basically with a light box, right? So one more guy than the offensive line can block sometimes, or maybe there's one guy for an RP, whatever it is, light box, light box. The Bills, the worst defense in the NFL stopping the run against a light box. So I think all these things

add up to the Ravens just coming in there and running the rock right at the Bills. Now, if you're back in the Bills here, and you might, Matt, Josh Allen's great against pressure. What does Baltimore do? Number one in the NFL at bringing extra rusher. They're 30% of the time they bring an extra rusher.

So the question becomes, can the Ravens defense do enough to keep this game close where I can trust their offense? I'll tell you one spot I like the Ravens. to keep this game close where I can trust their offense. I'll tell you one spot I like the Ravens. Is Josh Allen still, in close games down the stretch, has those YOLO plays. We saw against the Colts, right?

And then the Ravens, the way they pressure him to get that out of him and force a turnover or two to win the game. He fumbled that ball. The Colts should have recovered and won the game. The Colts have every opportunity to win that game. The Bills, in the end, won. I get it. I like the Ravens here, Matt.

Am I crazy? You're not. I mean, the Sharps are with you. This is a pro-Joe matchup for now. As of now, 61% of the money is on the Ravens, but the slight majority of the bets, 52% is on Buffalo. I've gone back and forth with this one. I'll probably go back and forth again.

To your point, Lamar Jackson, 4-1 is a road underdog. Allen only a 7-7. These are against the spread as a home favorite. Those are not great. But you mentioned Josh Allen against the Blitz. He has a 111.6 pass rating against the Blitz. Baltimore, you said it, Blitz is more than any team in the NFL on defense. This one, to me, just came down to a few things. The first is home teams tend to win in this divisional round. They are 33-15 straight up in the new playoff format at home in the divisional round. They don't often cover. Road teams tend to cover 54% of the time. But the home teams, they've won seven of the last eight games.

Ironically, Baltimore was the only one who did not pull off a home win. That was last year against the Titans, obviously. So I keep going. I want to tell you real quick. The difference, obviously, in that record is that the 2C doesn't have a buy now. So it used to be where the 2C had a bye and fans in the stands. Buffalo played last weekend. So did Baltimore, obviously.

So, I mean, those numbers, I think, matter more to the Chiefs and to the Packers than does the Bills who play. All those kind of trends and division around almost have to be tossed out because we have a new format now. It's true um and yeah you're right you should take it all with a grain of salt all these trends in general past doesn't dictate present or future but uh that still stood out to me uh here's here's where i ultimately netted out um baltimore played a perfect sort of game last week and they they got a lot of

monkeys off their back right like they came back from behind which everyone says they can't do lamar jackson got his playoff win and buffalo frankly like didn't play a great game uh and they still won and i think uh you know you you mentioned of course buffalo doesn't get the buy but they are home again and baltimore's been on the road for three straight weeks um i think these teams are about even and i I'm willing to take a very good team who could win the Super Bowl as a short home favorite. That's just where I'm going to net out. So Madison Buffalo, I'm on the Ravens here. I'll back my way. This is a Jeff Schwartz special, right? We had Ravens fans hate me, Bills fans hate me. I think the one thing that worries me about my wager is the stats with the Ravens pressure

because we've seen against the Chiefs when they pressure that Pat Mahomes just eats them alive. And if they pressure Josh Allen, Stephon Diggs could go off. So that's my one hesitation. I do think I'm right about the Ravens running the football. So the bet I like best in this game is Lamar Jackson over his rushing prop, which I've seen about 60 yards, which is ridiculous. So, Matt, how about this? When he runs the ball on a zone keeper this year, right?

So when he's reading, he balls in the belly, he runs. He averages 11 yards a carry. 11 yards a carry. Unbelievable. Even last weekend, if you take out, if you pull my notes back up here, because I already put my notes for the Chiefs game. If you take out the long run

last weekend, he still was right here. He still rushed for like five and a half, six yards a carry. They are doing some really good stuff in the running game. That number to me feels way too low.

So I think Lamar Jackson over his total feels like the best bet in this game. I'll take the Ravens money line. You have the bills. But I think that's the best bet in my opinion. Yeah, I like that. That's a fun one. I got another fun one for you, Jeff. This is inspired by our buddy Blackjack Fletcher,

who loved to bet first fives in baseball so that he could just stop watching so I'm not going to stop watching this the DeGrom under, the Scherzer under, he loved those here's one inspired by him this is a first quarter bet I wouldn't put the mortgage down on this

but you could parlay Baltimore to win the first quarter, get, I think it's like minus 120 there, and the points to go over nine and a half. I got that for a little more than two to one. The reasoning here, Baltimore is the highest scoring team in the first quarter and Buffalo's the ninth. And Baltimore themselves, they're averaging eight in the first quarter in their last three. So to get over 10 feels very doable. And, you know, they come out of the gate hot. It's certainly not.

If you do like Buffalo to win, it's certainly not impossible that they would come from behind after the first quarter. So, yeah, that's a fun one, right? That's a great one. Look at you digging deep into the archives. First quarter, man. First quarter bet in the playoffs. Guys, that's why you come here right first quarter that's right exotics so let's move to the next game matt because i have a lot to say in this

in this game i can imagine you do your kansas city chiefs are 10 point favorites against the surprising cleveland browns okay throughout the line the. I'm not betting that line. Here's what I'm doing this game. I got two plays. Chiefs over team total. It's about 33. Maybe it's 32 and a half. Maybe it's 33 and a half. Many reasons why. Number one.

In the six games that Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes have been together off a bye. They've scored 40, 31, 40, 51, 31, and 35. And those two 31 games were against the Colts in 2018 in the playoffs. Colts had the 10th best defense, DVOA, so a good defense. And the Niners in the Super Bowl, number one defense, right? So if they play a bad defense, they score 40 points a game off a bye. And guess what, guys? The Browns' defense is a huge steaming pile of poo.

Take out the Steelers' game because they're in prevent defense the whole time. The Browns' defense, here we go. Ready? 29th in overall DVOA. They're 29th on deep passes, 29th on third down passes, 28th on passes to the tight end. They're not good at anything on defense. The goal may be, I saw an article today that was like,

here's the ways to beat the Chiefs. It was five things someone had to do to beat the Chiefs. It was like five different ways to do it. And one of them was like, hit the quarterback. Great. No, don't bring pressure. Great. But guys, Mahomes came out and his wife confirmed

the story that it was told to a media member but Mahomes and Travis Kelsey spent the entire week leading up to this weekend scouting the defenses they might play in the AFC and came prepared to work on Monday with no book full of ways to attack the Cleveland Browns. I love that. And they know they haven't played well on offense recently. They know that. And this season, when Mahomes has not played well, like the Week 2 game against the Chargers,

where his EPA expected points added was just above league average, the next week he was up to 90th percentile. Then he played poorly against the raiders went back up above 90 he knows he hasn't played terribly great the falcons game now three weeks ago they played bad on offense so i get a motivated pat mahomes and motivated chiefs offense a poor browns defense who's who emotionally is probably still high on their win against pittsburgh i even get maybe a browns offense that scores a bunch of points that forces the Chiefs offense to stay aggressive the entire game.

Look, the Browns aren't forcing five turnovers this weekend. They're not doing it. The 10 scares me, but this number right here, over 33, is the way I'm going. I love it. That's great. I don't know exactly what my take is, how it's going to fit into that. But I do like the number here. And I like the plus 10 for Cleveland.

Even though that basically means like you hate fun. If you're going against homes in the playoffs and read off of the buy, you might as well, you might as well light that money on fire usually. But here's what I'm thinking. So it's odd to pick a game where the team I'm citing is like a good example, lost by 16. But early in the season, I think it was week five. Do you remember that Pats-Chiefs game

where it was close until pretty late and Brian Hoyer threw a garbage interception and I think the chief scored after that yeah yeah in that game that was close all game the patriots ended up running 74 plays to the chiefs 55 right they just held the ball and sat on it and it felt like mahomes was getting kind of antsy on the sideline because he was just sitting there and not doing anything. I kind of feel like that's what's going to happen here. So KC has the 31st rush defense in DVOA. They're allowing nine yards per catch for running backs this season.

So there's going to be a Chubb and Hunt are going to go off in this. Kansas City also has the 32nd red zone defense this season. And Cleveland is scoring 72% of the time in the red zone. 72% of the time they're scoring touchdowns in the red zone defense this season and cleveland is scoring 72 percent of the time in the red zone 72 percent of time just going touchdowns in the red zone so if they get in there they're gonna just you know i could just see them just running a ton of plays and homes is sitting there like get me on the field i'm ready to go and they can score on every possession but if you know the time of possession is all out of whack i think cleveland could keep this close um the other thing i mentioned this earlier uh peripherally but the road teams tend to cover i think it's 55 of the time yeah uh something like that but in these in these matchups this is a 10 cleveland's you know they

had a sort of a fluky one last week but like yeah they might they might be sort of you know celebrating but i i do think that they can keep this close they have a sort of a fluky one last week, but like, yeah, they might, they might be sort of, you know, celebrating, but I do think that they can keep this close. They have a lot of talent. Um, and even if they're down by 14, they're still going to keep handing it off. So,

so I like the plus 10. I I'm with you on more of the, the, on the plus 10, but here is the thing I want us to stop talking about. You didn't mention this. Cause you mentioned the important part of this whole discussion. People say, well, Ryan, the football, that's how you beat the chiefs. And you keep mention this because you mentioned the important part of this whole discussion. People say, well, running the football,

that's how you beat the Chiefs and you keep the way, you'll keep the ball away from Mahomes. It works for the Patriots. The Patriots are the only team that can do that because they have great, they have a great defense. You have to finish those drives with touchdowns.

You mentioned the red zone stats are very good. So to just say, well, the formula is running the football. If you score seven, it is. But if you score three, it's not the formula. And what happens if you're down 31-20, 31-21, 34-24 in the third quarter? Are you going to abandon doing that? The Browns last weekend won a game, scored a bunch of points in offense,

with Mayfield averaging like three and a half yards error attempts. It wasn't like Mayfield lit them up. Now, they ran the football very well. But the Chiefs, man, I don't know what it is about their defense. Their defense, the numbers are bad, but they kind of just get enough stops in a game. I don't know what it is. Sort of like their offense. I think that Cleveland is probably the play here at plus 10, enough stops in a game. Like, I don't know. I don't know what it is. And I just sort of like their offense.

Yeah. I mean, so I think that Cleveland is probably the play here at plus 10, but I think that the over the points is the way to go here. If you're taking the, and my second favorite wager, by the way, Travis Kelsey over 80 and a half yards receiving. I mentioned Brown's 28th on passes to the tight end. According to our fine friends at football Outsiders, DVO. Here's some more numbers for you. The Browns this year have allowed the fifth most targets to tight ends.

They've allowed the fourth most catches to tight ends and eighth most receiving yards to tight ends. And when Chiefs are coming off a bye, they target Kelsey a lot. In the six games, again, with him, Andy Meany, Pat Mahomes off a bye, he's had 90 yards in five of the six games um i think that travis kelsey do for a big game here so i would take the chiefs team total i would take travis kelsey over and matt you have the browns plus 10 i get i get that good there yeah that's good i don't really have a great feel on the total because i'd probably take the under it's the

highest one of the week but it doesn't really go with what I think about the game. So I think I would just lay off. I just, you know, the interesting part about, if you were to guess which team offensively did not come out and play well, it would be the Browns, right? Like, so there is a formula for the under, I think, but it's hard to believe that

because the Browns just played very, very, very good football, right? Yeah, 84% of the bets are on the over But it's hard to believe that because the Browns just played very, very, very good football, right? Yeah. 84% of the bets are on the over because, of course, and 60% of the money is on the under. So that's a big split. I don't know if that'll keep going up because of all the sharps hitting it the other way. So I don't know. Who's betting a Chiefs game under?

That's ridiculous. Life's too short. I'm not. This episode is brought to you by HP. Whenever you do your best thinking, the HP Spectre x360 is ready when inspiration strikes. With power saved for battery life and focus mode to multitask, you can do your best thinking whenever and wherever it happens.

You can't always schedule when and where you might have a brilliant thought, Thank you. HP Spectre x360, a more thoughtful laptop. All right, last game of the weekend. Brady Breeze, man. What's the line right now? We've got it at Saints by three, hosting the Bucs. I have no idea. No idea. I like the under in this game, under 52.

It's climbed from 49 up to 52. There's many reasons I like the under. But I don't know. The Saints played, and Tampa played week one. Brady was breaking a new offense. They played week eight. The offense that Tampa is running now looks nothing like the offense they were running in week eight.

They got hammered 38-3. They're a different offense now. Tom Brady's averaging, I think it's 334 yards over the last five games. But that's against not that good defenses. And he wasn't that sharp against Washington. The Saints defense, guys, is really good. They only allowed 21 points per game. And there's a reason why they're good.

They rush the passer extremely well. Marshawn Lattimore has played Mike Evans multiple times in the division. Since 2017, Marshawn Lattimore has only allowed nine catches on 20 targets to Mike Evans. Like, he's played really well against him. So, we have a good Saints defense against a Tampa Bay offense who I believe in more. But they still, you watch that game, they still have those lulls, right? It's like I don't know about their all,

still not kind of, not Chris, the right guards out, Kappa, that was a big loss in that game once he went out. We saw the pain come and make a lot of plays on Tom Brady. And you know, the other side, Drew Brees, for whatever reason, the offense is not as good in the playoffs as

the regular season did you know the last four playoff games last four they've only scored between 20 and 23 points that's it they don't score a lot of playoffs now you have a tampa bay defense number one in the nfl in stopping their run number one in rush defense between the tackles, where Alvin Kamara excels in the National Football League. Now, Levante David is PFF's fifth-ranked cover linebacker, which will be good. Now, Devin White's not. Devin White's awful against the pass. So if the Saints can find a way to put Kamara on him,

they can generate points. I think this is a stat I saw. I want to make sure that I get this right. Drew Brees only attempted 19 passes all season that are considered like deep passes. So I just think we have like two okay offenses and two really good defenses. And all the money's on the over right now.

I'll take the under. It checks out. I don't, you know, indoor playoff games go over 70% of the time, but these are two really good defenses. So I don't really you know, indoor playoff games go over 70% of the time, but these are two really good defenses. So I don't really have a feel. That was just a good stat I have. For the spread in this, one thing that's super, two things I found really interesting in my research.

First of all, teams that are looking to avoid a three-game sweep, you would think they're, you know, they've played seven times the playoffs since 2002. You would guess, you know think they're, you know, they've played seven times the playoffs since 2002. You would guess, you know, they're 5-2. They're actually 2-5 straight up. The team has lost the first two games. Yeah, 2-5 in the third game. So you would think that'd be a good reason to take the Bucs.

It's actually, according to the data, a good reason to take the Saints. The other thing is, like, these two teams, obviously, they play a lot, it being in the same division. Of the last nine, the Saints have won seven, and Kamara has never really gone off against the Bucs. Like, they kind of keep him contained, and Michael Thomas, in his nine games against the Bucs, he's had two monster games, but the games this year, he didn't really do anything, which to me just seems to say that the Saints just kind of have a read on this team. They can figure out how to get Traquan Smith and the tight ends involved to beat this defense. Last time these two teams played, you mentioned it was a beatdown, right? 38-3.

The Bucs had eight rushing yards in that whole game. But the Saints actually like kind of didn't play that well on offense. They fumbled three times, uh, but still won by 35. So I, I just think that New Orleans kind of has the Bucs number. Um, and you know, Tom Brady could prove me wrong for the millionth effing time, but New Orleans is only, they've, they've, they gave up 216 yards per game through the air this season. So they probably need a big game out of those backs. And Jones hasn't been healthy.

And Fournette, you want to go all in on Leonard Fournette? I'm not sure I would. So yeah, I don't know. I felt like the only thing we're talking about out of the Saints last week is slime cannons. Like they're flying under the radar. So I'm willing to take them. Did you watch the Nickelodeon broadcast? I did't know. I felt like the only thing we're talking about out of the Saints last week is slime cannons. Like they're flying under the radar. So I'm willing to take them. Did you watch the Nickelodeon broadcast? I did.

Yeah. What do you think of it? Well, shout out to our mutual buddy, Nate Burleson. He was great. He did a fantastic job. I loved it, man. I loved the tone of just sort of like, it was very respectful to kids, but clearly like catered to them.

I really enjoyed the graphics and all that silly stuff. What did you think? I watched a couple of minutes of it. It was very respectful to kids, but clearly catered to them. I really enjoyed the graphics and all that silly stuff. What did you think? I watched a couple minutes of it. It was okay. I mean, I don't watch games for the commentary anyways. I often watch games on mute. So my kids watched a little bit of it. My son was like, oh, SpongeBob.

I think they had it. They hit the field goal or extra point, and SpongeBob popped up on the... It was good. It was funny man anytime we can use ways to get kids involved in watching football I am all for so that was great I don't know I don't know I don't think they're doing that the rest of the playoffs but and maybe the Super Bowl they'll bring it back but but that was fabulous um I just find this game real quick back to the game real quick it's like we have two all-fame quarterbacks

this game should be and i think most of us are like yeah like yeah and your stat about teams playing the third time i want to acknowledge this because there's actually a reason for this typically if you've won the first two games you're just a better team the third game you're still the better team but i think with tampa is offensively they're just so different now so i i do lean aside with new orleans i think and all the money by the way is on tampa so i lean new orleans but i think the under here at 52 i mean it can't keep going as high as that so i think it's it's kind of is where it's at it's been up three points now i'd go with uh the under here well if i would advise if you're gonna take the under which i i'm leaning towards doing wait this is gonna be the ultimate chase game when people lose their bets over the weekend they're gonna come in and they're

gonna bet this number and it's gonna go up it's gonna be brady breeze on sunday night and everyone's gonna go over and then you're gonna go to kickoff and you're going to get like two free points that would be my advice yeah that's actually really that's really good advice are there any games this weekend where you see like live betting opportunities i love i the live betting has like gotten me through these i mean if buffalo goes down early that feels like a good one i think i think green bay is the same way if green bay gets goes down like seven nothing ten nothing you get them under a field goal or get them on a better money line um that feels good i do know if the if the chiefs are up

like 14 nothing early on like if they're at like favored by 20, like it's probably going to be, if they go up 14-0, it's going to 20 and a half or more, you think? I mean, it's the Chiefs. I feel like sometimes it just goes off. If it's at 20 and a half, I might take 20 and a half. They're up 14-0. Yeah. Yeah.

I could see that. Last week I got sucked in with the Titans. They were up 10-0, right? I think they were up 10-0. Yeah, I could see that. Last week, I got sucked in with the Titans. They were up 10-0, right? I think they were up 10-0. Yeah, they were. Yeah, because Lamar threw the batter in reception. Yeah, and I got minus three. And I was like, dude, the Ravens never come back.

Like, this is a lock. And I put in like two units on it, and it just vanished. And I couldn't believe it. I don't usually live bet, but that one was just like a, there's a no brainer. I took Steelers plus 18 and a half and almost plus 400 on the money line at one point. And I, wow,

that was fun. I hit the plus 18 and a half. And if Tom and I had gone for it a fourth down, maybe I hit the other one too. Interesting. Yeah. Oh, that's,

that's, that could have been fun. So, yeah, so we got our picks. This is divisional round. It's in. It's done.

Anything else, Matt? No. I mean, I want to ask you about all these quarterbacks that are going to move around. But maybe that's better served for the offseason or the week before the Super Bowl. It just feels like there's so much that's going to happen this year with the quarterbacks. They're definitely there. And I'm curious what you think. And we will have plenty of time to do that.

We're going to have fun this offseason. We're going to do some interviews. We're going to have some fun topics to discuss. I'm looking forward to that. I don't want the season to end this quickly. But yeah, divisional round. It's here. Ready to go.

And thank you for joining us. Have a great weekend. Enjoy your bets. Please rate, review, subscribe. We really appreciate getting the feedback. At Jeff Schwartz on Twitter. Check with OG. you for joining us have a great weekend enjoy your bets please rate review subscribe we really appreciate getting the feedback at jeff schwartz on twitter check with fg and have a great weekend everyone talk to you guys tuesday