Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best Bets NFL Week 15

Episode Date: December 15, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back at it coming off of yet another winning week. They talk all games around the league including the struggling Eagles, the fun and frisky New York Giants, and the home dog Steelers. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Friday, December 15th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. It's Jeff Schwartz of Smart News. Our Friday preview episode previewing the games in National Football League that are happening on Saturday this week and Sunday and Monday. And on Friday, we're brought to you by the Vaulted app. It's the home of my season-long game, giving out $14,000 of cash prizes in my pools with $5,000 allocated to my final pool of the season, which we did in the big game that's Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D. It's a place you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools on any entry fees and prove you're smarter than your friends and myself using the vaulted challenge feature.

As you guys know, by now I'll have my pool at the end of the show. We'll talk about 20 questions in the vaulted app. Go find my pool. That's Jeff for the G G O F F. You answer 20 questions, agree or disagree. You set a point total between one and 10 and we give up to $500 per week, Go find my pool. That's Jeff with a G, G-O-F-F. You answer 20 questions, agree or disagree. You set a point total between 1 and 10, and we give up to $500 per week. 401st place, 75.

Second place, 25. Third place, free to enter. Go to the app. That's the Vaulted app, V-L-T-E-D. Matthew, before we get to the week that was and the week that's going to be, the news today as we record this is the Chargers, after losing 63-21 on Thursday night, which is a college football score. That's like Alabama playing a lower-level group of five school, 63-21. It was 55-7, I think.

At one point, I was dead asleep by halftime, so I was like 42-0 at halftime. Good night. Brandon Staley, I was dead asleep by halftime. So I was like 42 and a half at halftime. Good night. Brandon Staley, the Chargers coach, has been fired. Tom Telesco, the Chargers general manager, has been fired. And the national nightmare of Brandon Staley is done. It's done. And I'm not sure I have been more wrong about a coach after year one than I was about Brandon Staley.

I mean, I'm glad it's over it honestly like uh remember too the raiders scored zero points last week and then put up 60 plus read the following week yeah they lost three nothing to minnesota um this is the chargers are the most annoying team in the whole league flat out i i just like after the game there are all these takes on twitter i'm sure you saw some of them of like this is proof the chargers roster is just not that good and so therefore justin herbert's off the hook again it's like this they have a good roster they made some seemingly sort of panic decisions like the jc jackson thing i'm sorry if you gave sean mcveigh and matthew stafford the same sporting cast that justin herbert had this team would have been better there was clearly a coach problem i think

the roster now they're sort of in tough shape with the cap they're gonna they are in a tough spot for the next couple years um but i don't know hopefully you know hopefully there will be a coach in there who can present a whole new batch of excuses for Justin Herbert. I look forward to that. 58% of their cap for next season is, excuse me, Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen. So good luck to whoever takes that job. Maybe Jim Harbaugh or whoever else, maybe Bill Belichick, who knows. But the job is now open.

The Panthers is open, as we know. The Raiders is open. Well, maybe they hire Antonio Pierce, but, you know. Can we talk about that for a second? Yeah, go ahead. Because Antonio, I think that it's one of these things that's like, this is the second year in a row the Raiders have fired their coach in the middle of the season. And the interim coach has sort of turned things around.

I mean, Pierce came in there, and I remember we bet against him, and he won his first two games. His losses are the chiefs the raiders or i'm sorry the dolphins the chiefs and the vikings last week which was a tough one but then they really bounce back like i'm really curious if he's earned a shot because you know it just seems like this he's just not even going to be taken seriously but like what else is he supposed to do i actually think he's done a really good job and i think he should at least be considered like talk about rosters i mean aiden o'connell rookie what fourth fifth round quarterback like yeah i think he deserves a lot of credit for turning this team around excuse me i think part of the issue is

there's not a long success rate in the nfl interim coach giving the full-time tag, right? Like that has not, Matt, over the years worked out in a successful way. And like are you turning down Jim Harbaugh to keep Antonio Pierce? What are you basically turning down for Antonio Pierce? Now, if you're turning down unimproving guy, okay, that makes sense. But if an unimproving coach wants that job, I don't know if you turn it down for Antonio Pierce. Now, if you're turning down an unimproving guy, okay, that makes sense. But if an unimproving coach wants that job, I don't know if you turn it down for Antonio Pierce. But he's making a very strong case.

The team is, look, last night, the reason why Stigley had to go wasn't that they lost. It's because they didn't play hard. And the Raiders keep playing their asses off. They're playing for Antonio Pierce. And that's a big deal. It's important.

And when you watch a game like that, you saw one team who, to your point, the roster's not very good, played their butt off, and one team looked like it quit. I hate using that word. I don't think the players implicitly quit, but that was not their best effort in this game on Thursday night. So Staley's out. That'll be a very coveted job with Justin Herbert being there.

A lot of cap issues. Got to figure that out. But that's life in the NFL. And let's move on to the games for this weekend. What we do on this show on Fridays, we go through all the games. Pick our five favorite wagers. We'll put them in the vaulted app. And at the very end, we'll go over the vaulted pool.

And here right now, I'm a little nasally, a little under the weather the weather matt so we'll try to kind of fly through this as we go we're two and three last week we are now uh 40 26 and four that puts us at 57 so i like where we're at look we got a bad number with seattle seattle we closed at 14 we got 11 and a half they lost by 12 so we kind of got screwed there with a bad number. It happens, but that's what gambling is. So again, we're going to choose our five favorites, and we'll start with Saturday. Three games on Saturday, Matt.

Where do you want to start? Vikings at Bengals. The Bengals are laying three points. Everyone's believing in them. I think we might have an opportunity here, Jeff. What do you think about Minnesota? I love Minnesota. Love it in this spot. Love it. So here's one thing about Minnesota, Jeff. What do you think about Minnesota? I love Minnesota. Love it in this spot. Love it.

So here's one thing about Minnesota, guys. Look, Nick Mullins, he's in for Josh Dobbs. Maybe that's better, maybe that's not. It probably can't be any worse, right? It just hasn't gone as well. But the Vikings defense, guys, is playing really well. They're playing very well on defense. They're sixth right now

in DVOA. They've done a really good job against young quarterbacks and experienced quarterbacks. Jake Brown is not young. He's inexperienced. And let's fade the quarterback that has 600 yards over the last two weeks, who's a backup quarterback, who hasn't played much in the NFL. This is a great

spot, Matt. Everyone down on the Vikings, everyone up on the Bengals. DVOA puts these teams 12 and 15, like they're right near each other. If the Vikings get a tiny bit of a bump on offense, we're going to win this game outright. I love Minnesota plus three here. Yeah, me too. You mentioned the defense. Yeah, the Nick Mullins experience, we'll live with that. Traditionally, the road teams tend to do better on these Saturday games. I don't have the stat in front of me, but in the past,

it's tended to be beneficial for the road teams, which doesn't totally make sense because you'd think with the short week that it would be the opposite. Yeah, so usually the teams that are – the public usually does bad on Saturdays. That's another thing. So they're sort of a public team lately. No one's going to want to back Mullens. Everyone loves Jake Browning. teams that are uh the public usually just bad on saturdays that's another thing so the bird sort of a public team lately no one's going to want to back mullins everyone loves jake browning let's see how he does against this defense that as you mentioned jeff is super underrated

um i really like this viking spot and uh i think you know they're they have a chance at the nfc north still no one's really talking about it but uh they are certainly live there um all right we're one for one moving on to the next saturday game which i also think we might be interested in the steelers are going to the colts oh come on man this is just the classic don't even think about it just bet mike tomlin get out of here stop come on what's your case? Make your case. You're scared of Trubisky? And the fuses aren't good. Okay. This is exactly when you want to take Mike Tomlin, dude. This is exactly it.

There are two really embarrassing losses. There's no difference. What's the difference between Trubisky and Pickett? Like, what are we losing by not getting Kenny Pickett in here, right? There's twos out there right now, too. Pittsburgh plus two. No, this is what we always do. We take Pittsburgh in this spot.

A hundred thousand percent. We take Pittsburgh every single time without hesitation, and we're fine with it. I just think that they're just bad. But this is the game, right? This is a game where they lose to two straight teams with two wins, and they turn around and just smoke the Colts, right? This is what they do.

100%. Yeah, you're getting them off of extended rest. Tomlin with extended rest, 14-5-1 against the spread since 2018. Best coach in the NFL against the spread in that span. He's great as an underdog. He's amazing as an underdog after two consecutive losses, especially against really bad teams. He always does badly against the Patriots.

I think that that just might be the team that, I think Belichick just might have the Steelers number and maybe just how they do things defensively. This is a no-brainer. Like, literally, you can't use your brain. You can't bet Mitch Trubisky, but it's also Gardner Minshew as a favorite against the Steelers. The only thing that's concerning is the status of TJ Watt,

who might not play. The Steelers are a little banged up on D. But I still like it, and I just think this is the classic Mike Tomlin, just hold your notes. No, it is. It is. You're right. All right.

Let's do it. Mike Tomlin, underdog. No one likes the Steelers. It's a good place to be. Yeah. They're getting 60% of the bets and 90% of the money which is a little scary but I think you just got to do it and if you see you see a two out there yeah there's a two out there yeah south point right now all right two

it is love that all right uh great start for us here we're gonna have a very busy saturday morning uh all right the next game saturday is denver detroit um yeah denver's been hot uh okay i'll make the case well i'm scared i i don't think i think it's a maybe the first two to me are like locks like we're putting them in there but i just think this is the spot where again if we typically zag right and zig and zag and move around i mean this is the spot where detroit now is just not playing the best right that people are off of them look bad against the bears we had the bears we called that game right the broncos won six or seven they're feeling everyone's feeling good with them oh broncos afc west you know the chiefs watch. They're coming for you.

And they just fall flat on their face. Well, the Lions are back at home inside. Not my favorite wager because the Lions' defense is atrocious. It's a bad defense, Matt. And I think that wagering on a bad defense against an offense in Russell Wilson that has shown the ability to move the football at times terrifies me. Like the backdoor cover in this spot is huge opportunity for the Broncos here.

So it's not one of my favorites, but I would leave the Lions here. Yeah, I think you're probably right. This number is very curious to me because it seems like, it seems like the public just trusts the Broncos now just because they've delivered. I think they what they cover like six in a row or something like that they were just one of those teams that you just kind of just made money on every week um detroit seems to be the play here everyone's on them i think that i think you're right about you know the main thing with with detroit is whether

they're home and indoors or outside and playing in the cold. And I don't know. The number here stinks. I don't hate it. I would put it in the maybes because this is a pretty tricky week. But I just, I don't know. I don't have a lot of faith in this Lions team right now. But at four, I do feel like we're getting a decent number.

But I don't know. It just seems a little tricky to go against Denver here. To me, it's a maybe. I don't want to put all the eggs in the Saturday basket either. So that's sort of why, like, we have a party on Saturday night for my wife's work. And I just don't want to, like, have to be staring at the television the entire game to make sure the line is covered. Texting. Who are you on the phone with?

Texting. I'm like, Matt. I'm texting Matt, okay? Okay, Meredith meredith texting matt okay i know it's always jeff when i have it's like right now so frequently it's jeff it's always jeff if you're sharing dumb political text or memes making fun of elon or talking about gambling um all right let's go to the next quite a life we lead yeah that's right. Let's go to the next. Yeah, that's really great. Let's go to Sunday,

buddy. The bears are going to the Browns. That's the first game I'm seeing on Sunday. Yeah. This line's moved a bunch, three, three and a half. It's kind of hanging there.

I, I, who do you, who do you like on this one? I like Chicago. I think Chicago is a really good play here um what side are you on oh justin fields on the road feeling good about himself against his browns defense i i i think that's a recipe for disaster the problem is the browns defense and offense just aren't the browns defense and offense anymore i mean they are the most in league um playing with a 38 year old quarterback who's

playing completely out of his mind right now uh what's so i mean this this week alone they lost two guys on the interior of the offensive line right um they've they've miles garrett's been banged up yeah they lost they lost their tackles their tackles yeah oh and this their center hasn't practiced their center yeah yeah both yeah so like they're just they're probably the most injured team in the league every week it seems to keep adding up and chicago i just think isn't getting enough credit for how resurgent they've been in the past few weeks. Getting our producer Hank and my guy Montez Sweat seems to have really changed that defense around.

And this is just going to be like a cold, ugly game where Joe Flacco is... We're selling as high as it gets on Joe Flacco. This guy wasn't in the NFL three weeks ago, and now people are trusting him to lay three points against a very frisky Bears team. I don't know. I just feel like the Bears are really, are not a bad play here.

Their defense has been playing a lot better lately. This team absolutely smoked the Lions last week, and I feel like the Browns are getting credit for beating, for covering against Jacksonville when they shouldn't have. We got lucky with that one. I just feel like we're, the Browns are getting credit for beating, for covering against Jacksonville when they shouldn't have. We got lucky with that one. I just feel like the Browns and the Bears, people aren't really seeing where they truly are right now and that we're getting some good value.

The question is where this number goes. Does it go to 2.5 or go back to 3.5 or stay at 3? That's my question, right? I mean, if it's at 3, we got a good number. I mean, if it goes to 3, 3.5, we didn't get the best number. But if it goes to 2.5, we obviously got a great number. So it's pretty much three minus 10 everywhere. So I'll put it in the maybes, man.

Like if you like it, I don't have a lot on the board I love, honestly, on Sunday. So this is one if you feel comfortable about it, I'm good putting it in the maybes for now, for sure. I don't have a ton either and i think uh i think this does move to two and a half because uh it's all the money has come in all week on the bears um they're still getting 87 right now so i have a feeling i have a feeling by tomorrow this is two and a half i don't think it's two and a half for a while

though i think two and i think two and a half probably gets slammed. All right, let's go to the next one, buddy. A team we refuse to bet on forevermore, I think. After last year, where I thought we also had written them off, the Carolina Panthers are hosting the Falcons. The Panthers are three-point home dogs. They would be the play here, but I am not allowed to ride the Bryce Young roller coaster once more. I think the play is actually the Falcons, but we're not doing it.

Dude, okay. Can I say something? So here, I'm going to say something. The under, by the way, should be wagered in this game. I live in North Carolina. I live in Charlotte. Sunday, we have a Nor'easter coming through Sunday. An inch to two inches of rain on Sunday.

The tickets right now in upper Deck are going for 45 cents. 45 cents. This game is going to be just the worst game of all time. No wager. I think the Falcons are the right side on this spot. I'm not touching it. But Carolina, we're done. After last week, man, no more Carolina.

No chance. Not happening. Just move it along. Yep. Man, good luck with that weather, Jeff. Next game, Jets-Dolphins. The Dolphins, there's some news today that Tyreek may not play for this game. If Tyreek doesn't play for this game, I think that would really inform this choice. The Jets are plus nine and a half in Miami. This is a no bet right now, right? But I think that on Sunday, this could be one where everyone looks at each other and squeezes on the Jets. But I'm curious if you have a feel here.

if you have a feel here. Well, we saw last week that Tyreek Hill is the MVP of the Dolphins, which you sort of already knew. If he's out, the game is different. Remember, the Dolphins scored one touchdown on defense last week, right, on Monday night. They didn't even score four offensive touchdowns. They scored three offensive touchdowns.

And they're up 27-13, and you figure they're going to win that game. Nope. Tennessee comes back and wins that game. If Hill doesn't play, I just don't think you can take the Dolphins in this spot. If he does play, then the Dolphins are the side. If not, maybe it's the Jets. The thing about the Jets, man, is like

Zach Wilson's not doing this two weeks in a row. We've seen this year. He had one good game and then he shit the bed this two weeks in a row we've seen this year he had one good game that he shit the bed for four weeks in a row got benched so I just think that this is a again a bad spot for the Jets if Tyreek Hill plays but it's a short week right they put Monday football they're back on Sunday to me just stay away yeah stay away with without knowing Tyreek this he's not only the MVP of the Dolphins, he is the MVP of the league, in my opinion. Without knowing his status, I don't know how you can make this bet. I do think I was looking ahead on our vaulted pool. There's no Raheem Mostert or Devin Achain props in that pool this week. If there were, I would say go way over on the Dolphins running backs. I think this is the week that they both pop. The Jets have a really poor run defense.

Surprisingly, the Dolphins are not going to be able to throw a lot, even if Hill does play. So I think that they probably win this game going away with the running backs. I think there's some opportunity there. I like the screen game is going to be important in this game too, like running back overs for receiving yards, things like that. So that's a good thought. I like the screen game is going to be important in this game too. Like you running back overs for receiving yards, things like that. So that's a good thought. I like it.

Thanks, buddy. Moving on to AFC South battle between the resurgent Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans. The line is priced as though CJ Stroud is not playing because I'm seeing everything from minus two and a half to minus four for tennessee they said he's not playing today you know stroud's latest okay yeah um i just i would just yeah i'd skip the game if i there's nothing to wager on this game like we're not taking tennessee off that win you're just not doing that um and the texans i mean

they're just kind of hit that rookie wall right they're not as good anymore a game in new york was disgusting was bad atrocious um i i think this is just a no play on the spot i mean variable is a home favorite again just no i would say no in this spot nothing for me yeah i agree uh This is not the spot where you'd take Mike Vrabel. No. And yeah, we're not taking Davis Mills. No. Okay, passing that one.

Let's go to, oh boy, Giants at Saints. Oh my God. The Saints are laying up to six. Jeff, can we please, can we just do the Thelma and Louise and just hold each other's hands and ride off the cliff and bet on Tommy DeVito? Can we just do it? Can we do it, Jeff? Hi, Matt.

Doesn't the story end in New Orleans? Like, doesn't he go into New Orleans and just get his ass kicked because he's Tommy DeVito, like,ito like eighth string quarterback so you think the opposite you think like this is like a storybook a storybook uh like like continues this week does a storybook mean losing by five because that would be fine because here's the thing there's no one worse as a uh big favorite than derrick carr okay he is 9 26 and 2 against the spread favored by three or more he's 2 14 and 1 is in his last 17 since 2021 he's 2 11 and 1 as a favorite of over three the saints are under 500 at home um and the giants look this is the giants the giants are on a three-game winning streak like they've turned it around they're not they're not

going for the number one pick they're not this terrible team that we saw get blown out a million times like daniel jones was was the problem right like he honestly he honestly seems to have been like davido's not amazing but they've changed things around with the wide receivers um their defense has been playing a lot better i just think that this is this is not going to be a blowout derrick carr is not capable of a monster blowout against a team that's playing really hard and i just think the saints they're just like i i just don't think anyone really sees what they are the The Saints stink. I think you're getting a great chance here with plus six to get the Giants to play this one at least close.

Oh, boy. Rebecca DeVito. I mean, what else do you like? We don't have enough games left. There's a few left that I think are interesting. We don't. We really don't. This one is like a pretty safe bar fade. have enough games left like there's a few left that i think are interesting we don't we really don't it's the right play because everything you said about the saints um i just have a fear that like tommy devito just takes a complete nosedive in this game right like it's loud it's an

environment he's not used to playing in um you know the giants uh are playing hard but probably a little over their skis talent-wise in this game but your point about fading derrick carr i mean the saints have lost three in a row vikings falcons lions before beating the the lowly panthers so um the saints have been colts bears panthers patriots panthers titans, Titans. Oh. They're terrible. Like, people don't understand how bad they are. Okay, I'm good with that. I'm good with that.

Yeah. Let's do that. So, I mean, there's – the only thing – I mean, Taysom Hill still is banged up. I feel like with Taysom Hill banged up, they have no juice in the red zone at all. Dable is an underdog. Like, all those things make sense. It's just ugly, and we don't want to be holding them mean ugly but ugly is part of it though like that's part of it ugly is part of it and six is a good number um okay we have four or five games left here uh the

bucks are going to green bay two of the most confusing teams in the league are just green bay's laying three and a half uh you're skipping this are you playing this game no i think it's an interesting one though so you know i i i tampa would probably be my side but i don't know man i don't i don't know who i trust in this one the packers you look at last week is like a young offense just going through some growing pains right bunch of turnovers road game everyone loving them. It does feel like they can right the ship this week, right? And beat Tampa Bay, who we don't really – Tampa Bay, who knows?

I just try to avoid wager on teams in the NFC South. It's just bad. You know what I mean? So I would just stay away from this one and try to pick another game, honestly. Yeah, I agree. Baker is pretty good as a dog yeah this is a pass uh okay next up we are uh into the no we have one more game in the early window here the chiefs and the patriots uh

interesting line this is bounced around from seven and a half to nine and a half i see it at eight or eight and a half for the Chiefs as road favorites. There's no way we're taking a side here, right? No, no. I like the under 37 in this game. Both teams just don't score very much. Chiefs average 22.5 points. Patriots average 13 points.

Both defenses, top 10 in DVOA. Both defenses kind of what the team does. The Chiefs just, we keep saying each week, Matt, they're going to figure it out. They're going to figure it out. They don't figure it out. It's not the defense to figure out against. This game is like 20-10, man. Right on the number, which is the opening number.

I made this point before. I'm not betting on the Chiefs opponent plus points. I'm not rooting that the Chiefs only win by a certain amount of points. I think just stay away. The under is my best bet on the bear pod. I think the under is my favorite play of the week in this game. But I have no side. I mean, if I like the under, I guess you take the points, right?

And the Sharps have obviously hit this number because it opened near 10. But I don't have a play for our five for this one. Yeah, I agree. And the Chiefs just need to make it to the finish line here. So they still have a path for the one seed. They just need to win this game and get some luck with the rest of the schedule which we'll see um all right into the late window one good game a couple of other stinkers uh the 49ers are at arizona the 49ers are laying 12 and a half no you're not doing it yeah i don't think we can fade the Niners. They're a team that blows people out every week.

The play here would be Arizona, I guess, but off of a bye. No. Because, like, this game – I mean, the way the Niners play football, Matt, like they could not try hard to essentially win 35-14. You know what I mean? Like, good luck arizona trying to come back in this game now color murray off a buy like he's playing with the niners his ability to move is in but that it feels like we get that frenetic color murray game which is like not

the most fun to bet on like i hope color murray makes a ton of plays but also in that same situation there's fumbles and turnovers and things like that happen so to me i would just um i'll just stay away from that to be honest with you i'll just stay away yeah i agree uh kyler has been a fun one to bet on uh yeah he has been i think he's been three and oh against the spread uh and he was the public side so i think we've i think we've taken him a few times. But yeah, so I guess if you had to pick, I think we both like Arizona, especially 12 and a half, but that's a pass for us.

If we're in a picks pool, that's what we would play, obviously, yeah. Yes. Commanders, Rams, and low-key, the battle for my son's football allegiance, Jeff. Really interesting game here, the Ford household. The Commanders are six and a half point dogs in the LA. No one is betting the commanders, but the line's not moving. We are certainly not joining the commanders party, are we? No, I like the Rams in this game, honestly. Not my favorite of the week, but I think it's one of my, it's one, it'd be in consideration,

right? I mean, what's the case for the commanders here? Off a bye, I guess. But, like, I don't know. Like, what's the case here? Like, their offensive line, are they going to be able to block the Rams? Are they going to be able to block Aaron Donald? The Rams are – we have that Rams future, obviously, and hopefully they can be able to make the playoffs.

But they're playing for something, right? They're playing for something big. Washington's just running out the stream before their coach gets fired. So I'd be fine with the Rams minus 6.5 in this spot. High total, a little worrisome that maybe some defense is not terribly playing this game, but the Rams are not a bad team. Last week showed they're batting their asses off.

They're playing hard. Washington's not good. They're 32nd on defense in DVOA. There's not's not good football team they trade away their best pass rusher so rams by six and a half totally fine with uh yeah not my my favorites we did earlier in the show it's one of my if we put in the five wouldn't bother me i'm actually okay with this um the commandersers, you know, if this turns into a shootout, I still like the Rams. Sam Hill turnover? I think, look, everybody seems to be,

anybody who's playing this is playing the over and is playing the Rams. And I think it's, can we get six anywhere? I wonder. I just, I don't know. I think this Commander's team is dead. The reporting out of Washington is that Ron Rivera's at peace.

They're just playing this one out. I don't even know who they're evaluating. It looks like Brian Robinson might not play, who's been kind of the only reliable guy on that whole offense. I'm okay with this. It's a big number, but I mean, I think I love back in McVay, so I'm okay with this it's a big number but I mean I think I love back in McVay so I would be okay

with this it's not my favorite but I can put it on the list we need Dotson how many more receptions do we need this year we need seven more receptions to hit our over on Dotson too we can get that this week alright what do we got next next up last four four o'clock

window game i don't love how they schedule this but this is the one we'll all be watching the bills facing dallas uh one and a half to two to two and a half here buffalo is a short home favorite against the cowboys so here's my thing about this game. Everyone's picking Buffalo, Matt. Everyone is. And for that reason, I don't think we take Buffalo. Like every single person is picking Buffalo to win this football game. To me, that's the right side.

I like Buffalo. I wrote an article this week on Monday morning where I look ahead to lines. I'm like, Buffalo, sign me up for Buffalo on the spot. Dallas riding high, feeling good about themselves. Just beat the Eagles. Now they're going outside. It's supposed to be windy. Not terribly cold, but very windy in Buffalo this weekend. No, but just thinking that is that I'm not sure Buffalo even played that well against Kansas City.

You know what I mean? Like, it wasn't their fault. Kadarius Toney lined up off sides. If he lines up on sides, they lose that game in heartbreaking fashion. Did you see Sean McDermott after the game, like, exhale like he was, like, just won the Super Bowl? Like, I think emotionally the Bills are not in the best space right now as well.

Like, I think – so that's why, to me, this is a stay away. The Bills, I mention this every single week with them. They are 32nd in variance. 32nd, which means every week. So actually, wait, they dropped to 30th now. Oh, my God, 30th. We don't know what we get each week from Buffalo. So to me, man, I think we stay away from this game.

We don't take Buffalo and just watch the game without any gambling interest in it. I'm fine with that. I will say Buffalo is is my pick too i agree i don't really want to throw this in as one of our five um dac way worse off a loss or off a win than off a loss dallas it's it's like all the things that you think about dallas are confirmed by the trends they're not as good on the road. They're not as good off of a win as they are off of a loss. They're not good when they're underdogs. They're good when they're favorites at home and the momentum is going in their way. They're not good at like, cool, we just had a huge win. Now let's go win again. Josh Allen

is one of the best. He's the second best, most profitable quarterback at home. The Bills are 32-8 straight up. Only Jalen Hurts has a better percentage. They are 16-3 in their last 19 at home. That's insane. I think Buffalo ends up winning this game. The DAC MVP hype comes back to earth and we're left with this what do we do thing next week. I'm fine passing this and maybe the MVP is in the next game jeff the sunday night game uh is mark jackson's ravens laying three or even three and a half at jacksonville

very tricky line here i'm really curious what your side is i don't i don't imagine we play this one but i'm curious what you think i don't have it's three and a half right I don't have a side because I think everything would tell you to take Baltimore I mean to take you know the Ravens here excuse me geez the Jacksonville Jaguars here is home dogs but I don't what are what is Jacksonville man what are they in Baltimore though like they don't look great all the time either like I are like if Baltimore is the one seed in the AFC which is certainly like they don't look great all the time either like I are like if Baltimore is the one seed in the AFC which is certainly possible I don't know do you feel great about Baltimore winning the AFC conference I certainly don't um and so I think this is a stay

away or Jacksonville but I don't feel comfortable with Jackson I think we have other games we like better than this Jackson off that bad loss uh to. It wasn't bad. It just had some bad moments in that game. Yeah, I'm a firm stay away in this game. Yeah, me too. I think Baltimore would maybe be my play, especially if you can find the three, which there are some threes out there. But yeah, I think this is a pass. I don't trust Jacksonville to win a game like this just just yet um another mvp candidate is uh on the road monday night jalen hurts uh laying three or three and a half in seattle man this is a tricky game i i don't know which

side i would be on here um i don't know do you have a? I mean, Seattle's lost four in a row. Drew Locke is probably playing again in this game. Eagles are on this stretch now where they finally get a little bit of a break, right? Their stretch was – they had a bye in this stretch, but it was Dolphins, Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, Niners, Cowboys. Dolphins, Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, Niners, Cowboys. Now I got the Seahawks. This feels like for them an extra day of rest,

which I certainly knew they looked tired against the Cowboys. Doesn't this feel like one of those games the Eagles get right against a Seahawks team that just isn't very good right now? Seattle's defense 26 in DVOA. Not sure if we're going to defense this season. It feels like an Eagles get right game, to be honest with you, Matt. I would love if this game was at home, obviously, because you feel better than traveling across the country.

But I don't know. I don't know if I'd like it to put in my five, but I think Philly minus four is the play here. I know Sharps won't be on that, but I think Philly minus four is the play here. I know Sharps won't be on that, but whatever, so be it. Yeah. I don't know. I think this is a pass for me. I think maybe Seattle will be my side just because I think the Eagles –

the teams – you mentioned the home thing. They're just way better at home. They run up the score at home. I don't necessarily see them doing that on the road, a very desperate Seattle team. That's going to pull out all the stops. I think they win, but I think the three, three and a half is a fair number. So we can put this one into the past column. I think we, so I think we have, what, six or seven that we like.

Yeah. Well, so we, we really have, we have three that i think we're all in on okay you ready these are three i think we're we both agreed on minnesota plus three pittsburgh plus two rams minus six and a half okay now we have three left that we liked to choose to detroit minus four and a half chicago plus three and the the New York Giants plus six. I feel like you love the Bears, right, and the Giants. You like both those? I do. I think we can get a four on Detroit if that helps.

I do like those two, but I'm scared of putting it all on the line for Fields and DeVito. That's a little scary. Yeah, but that... I mean, the right play... I think the Giants plus six is the right play there. I think we can put that in. I'm fine with that.

And then do you want to do three Saturday games? Do you want to be miserable Saturday or miserable Sunday? What do you want to be? I would much rather be miserable Sunday. So that's Chicago plus three? Do you like that, though? I mean, I don't care about being stressed out on Saturday. No, the Lions won.

Are we sure the Lions have it? They haven't looked good in over a month, I feel like. It's because their defense, I feel like, is a problem. That's my concern with them is that defense is just not good good so the backdoor cover possibility is so huge in this spot um all right let's go chicago then let's go minnesota plus three pittsburgh plus two rams by six and a half new york plus six chicago plus three done how about that you with that I love it Jeff I think I think it's our chance to bet against Joe Flacco for the last time I think that's a good tiebreaker yeah Joe Flacco was a favorite yeah that's insane are you smarter than your friends prove it with vaulted by

predicting challenging and being them with your sports knowledge vaulted spelled v-l-t-e-d is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the vaulted challenge feature. I will have my own pool on vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes and there are no entry fees required to participate. This football season, vaulted will be handing out money the only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools which won't happen because as you know i am smarter than you i will be using vaulted to make and store my five favorite

predictions of the week so join vaulted and you can like dislike comment interact with my predictions or if you're bold enough you can make your own and see how smart you are in football which won't be as smart as me go download vaulted spelled v-l-t-e-d and remember to use the code jeff that's g-e-o-f-f so you can see my predictions and play along guys i want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game i have been playing this season prize picks is a skill-based real money daily fantasy sports game. How does it work? You pick two to six players and if they will go more or less

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projections available instead of battling thousands of other players, including pros and sharks. So follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better. Remember, go to PrizePix and use code G-S-S-Y for a first deposit match up to $100. Alright, let's get to our Vaulted pool guys for the week. Remember, use the Vaulted app, V-L-T-E-D. Go find my pool. That's Jeff with a G, G-O-F-F.

Free to enter, free cash prizes. $400 to the winner, 75 second place. The other player gets $25. And if you beat me in the pool, not hard to do some weeks. Some weeks good, some weeks bad for your boy. You enter the big game pool and win up to $5,000 for the big game. All right, Matt. We kind of love going through these here through the week.

Some of these match up with what we have in our pool. Here's a fun one here early on. Jordan Love will have more passing yards than baker mayfield i say maybe disagree because baker mayfield will be behind this game we'll have to throw the ball the packers are they play so much prevent defense in those situations i think baker mayfield will throw more uh have more passing yards than will jordan love so i will say disagree with that one that one that's a that's a fun angle uh what else okay so i have my eyes on um well will the dolphins score more than 24 and a half points against the jets i'd say right now disagree right like the answer would be no they scored 20 20 34 the first game but that was remember the first game they played Hail Mary touchdown,

right? In that game. And then I think another pick six or some, some sort, like they had two non-offensive touchdowns in that game. I didn't even go, I disagree. I didn't,

they stay under 24 and a half. What do you think? I think it's a really smart play, especially if you can lock that in. I guess the line is not moving here, but the Tyreek thing is, is very concerning. Yeah. I think that's going to

be a low scoring snoozer of a game and the dolphins case for the number one seed is very much in doubt all of a sudden very very strange um patrick scored more than 13 and a half points against the chiefs i i disagree i'd actually have that as one of my i think they're not gonna score points in this game no chances for 13 and a half points in this game. No chance to score 13.5 points in this game. There you go. You ready? Tommy DeVito will score more total touchdowns than Derek Carr. Agree. Just straight talk. Let's go Tommy DeVito standing.

Lock it in. Lock it in here. Here's one that I'm going to lock in right now. Panthers will score more than 16.5 points against the Falcons. No chance. No chance in a downpour. They're going to score more than 16.5 points against the Falcons. Not going to happen.

Throw that one out. Well, I'm disagreeing, but throw out that they're going to have that. Last one for me. Let's debate this one, man. Dak Prescott will have more passing yards than Josh Allen. I will disagree with that. I think Josh Allen has more because the way that this game gets played, the Cowboys rely on running the football, they rely on their offensive

line, and the Bills are just Josh Allen dependent. It's just Josh Allen or Bust in this game, as usual. Yep, I agree. I think this is going to be the Josh Allen signature game of this season, to be quite honest. I don't know if that's going to put

them in the mix and winning this game the bills the rest of their team is so off um josh allen this year is he's just not had the kind of season that we're used to seeing out of him um but i think that this could be one of those games where he like stefan diggs has been a little too quiet for too long cd lamb has been a little bit hot for too long it just kind of feels like this is the one where the tides turn but you know the reason we didn't pick this is we just don't trust uh the bills uh ever really uh to to just sort of like do the thing that makes sense um but yeah i i think you can i i would say the bills there the line in the vaulted pool is two and a half i still like buffalo Buffalo there. Yeah. Yeah.

So this is a good pool this week. I'm very curious about all these. Bajon Robinson over a half a touchdown I really like. And A.J. Brown over the 94 and a half I really like. The 25th ranked Seattle defense against the pass is probably not a great bet to stop A.J. Brown. So good one this week, Jeff. Yeah.

All right, guys. Well, that was a lot of fun as usual on our Fridays. Thank you to Vaulted for being our partner for this Friday show. We'll catch up with you guys on Monday after a great weekend of football. Hope you guys enjoy. We have bowl games as well, too. So, a lot to get into. Football-wise this weekend.

Talk to you guys on Monday. Take care, everybody. Take care, everybody. Thank you. Bye. We'll see you next time.