Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 10

Episode Date: November 12, 2020

Week 10 is here with a slate full of divisional matchups, we have a showdown between two rookie quarterbacks and a few contenders are going head to head. Geoff and Matt breakdown each game and choose their 5 favorite SuperContest lines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Take the over. Engages are so simple that you can be made in less than 60 seconds. Sign up today at prizepicks.com or on the PrizePicks app and use the code JEFF, remember, G-E-O-F-F, to get a 100% match on your first deposit up to 100 prize picks is truly daily fantasy simplified it's thursday november 12th welcome to week 10 and we need to have a great weekend we have to bounce back from an oh and five it's so disgusting matt the first truly bad weekend of the year i am jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is the jeff schwartz is

smarter than you or the jeff schwartz needs to be smarter than you podcast i don't know last weekend was bad folks it was bad but matt we are gonna have a great weekend there are a lot of plays we like this week. How are you doing, buddy? We're good, man. We owe our listeners an apology. But you know what? It happens.

We're like cornerbacks, Jeff. We get burned. We watch it happen. We lament that it's happening. And then we just move on. Next play. Next pass. Let's go. That's how you have to gamble.

And look, we had plenty of great weekends in a row. Obviously, this one was not that. And we will improve here. We'll get better. We learned. Look, the public plays, man, are killing us. We got to get off of those, and we will this weekend. So let's start off with Thursday night football.

Let's do that. So interesting one here. It came in as a pick. It is the Indianapolis Colts at the Tennessee Titans. What do you think? Is this the week we get, we finally dip our toes into the Thursday nights? I don't think so. I thought about this this week, Matt. And I thought, you know, maybe this is the one I kind of like the Titans here,

but then everyone likes the Titans because the Colts lost last weekend. The Titans won ugly, but they won nonetheless nonetheless there's too much money in the titans i'm gonna the public plays are now not they're not winning anymore right these public plays i'm gonna stay away from thursday night yeah i think that's the right move uh indy seems to be able to beat everyone who's worse than them and no one better than them. And I'm not really clear if Tennessee is actually better than Indianapolis. So, yeah, I'm advocating for a stay away here as well. Again, I think that the Thursday Night Football, I hate to start my week with Thursday Night Football. I feel like it's just like a game that you just don't have to bet on. An AFC South Thursday game.

Imagine if we lost that and then we were 0-6 in our last six, like that's just not an option. Also, look, the one thing here is, is the Colts have not won it in Tennessee. Or the Tennessee hasn't been the Colts at home in like years. Like they don't, they don't ever beat the Colts either in this game in Nashville. So I'm going to just stay away from this.

Let's pass it. Let's move to the AFC North. That's our next one. It's Cincinnati off by plus seven at Pittsburgh, who survived a scare against Dallas last week that we were on the wrong side of. What do you like here? We knew better.

We told you guys it was going to be that way. And we bet against ourselves. It's so stupid. Yes. And that was a late pick. We did that one Sunday, right? That was the one we swapped in. told you guys it's going to be that way and we bet against ourselves it's so stupid yes and that was a late pick we did that one sunday right that was the one we swapped in matt stafford came back so we changed it like we we left ourselves the room to do that yeah so without knowing the status of big ben right now as we record this same thing as last week i can't decide what to do because

the bangles and joey have covered a lot of football games. But they're not really a good football team. And I feel like the Steelers just played three straight games on the road. They're back home. They're going to blow them out if Big Ben plays. But I don't know if Big Ben's going to play. So I can't bet this game. Yeah. If he does, I would like to consider this one Sunday for a few reasons.

The first is, this is one of those weeks where I really am dialed in, I think, to what the public is doing. And we sort of even already alluded to it with with the Colts from last week. The public is going to go nuts here watching Pittsburgh barely squeak out against Dallas. And now they get the chance to play Joe Burrow with a big number. This opened at nine. It's down to seven. One of the weird things about Joey covers is the Bengals are 0-3-1 against the spread on the road this year and much different at home.

And Pittsburgh is 4-0 against the spread at home. And even if Mason Rudolph plays, Jeff, I kind of still might not mind the Steelers because their offense hasn't been playing that well with Ben Roethlisberger anyway. There's six and two against the spread, even though they are 25th in yards per play this year, it's been special teams. It's been defense.

It's been a nice schedule. So look, I would easily lay the seven. If Roethlisberger is playing in real life, if this line moves, since we're doing the super contest, if you can get them, if Roethlisberger's playing. In real life, if this line moves, since we're doing the super contest, if you can get them, if Roethlisberger doesn't play and they're like minus three, minus four, hammer them because I don't think Cincinnati's going to beat them either way.

I'm with you on the hammering there if that ends up being the case. I would, yeah, look, I think that if Big Ben plays and this number stays at seven, it's a good value on Pittsburgh. Maybe we decide at some point this week, if we only like really four games this week, we, you know, we keep this as an open slot. I think big Ben will play. And I do too. I'm, you know,

seven is not a bad number in this because I think that he plays, it could end up getting back above seven. So I'm okay with this, you know, with, with the number being at seven and we'll just wait and see in this game. But I look, the Bengals are 31st in DVOA. DVOA, by the way, is a metric that measures efficiency, and it's very predictive, right? So when there's a matchup of a bad team and a good team,

DVOA lets you know if they're bad and good, and typically the game goes as DVOA has let you know. So it seems to have a big advantage here. We'll stay away just because of Big Ben not playing. Yeah, for now. I would like to even stick this on the maybes and come back to it potentially. I put it on the maybe list.

Okay, good. Okay, next up is, boy, the football team, plus four at the Detroit Lions. I have a feeling we're not even going to do much discussion here, but floor is yours. We are not. That's correct. This game, God bless you if you've been in this game.

Matt Patricia, one and four against the spread is a home favorite. Washington this year, they're on their third quarterback, but the Lions are totally banged up. He might be the best one. Our editor of this show is a guy named Quincy. I spoke to him earlier today. He is a tortured Detroit Lions fan, and I hate to tell him that I would probably lean the Washington football team here if I had to make a play here. Yes, but we're going to do that.

And Washington, are you going to want to back the Washington football team as a public road dog? I don't know, man. I believe in the power of Matt Patricia being ass at any chance. So it's possible, but let's get the next game. Cause I love this next game.

And so I want to, this is gonna be the first one that we play. Okay. That's I like it. Call on your shot. It's Houston plus three at the cleveland browns please tell me you're on the right side i am on the browns in this game by a landslide um here's the thing houston's are not good football team right they're two and six this season with both

the wins against jacksonville one and seven against the spread okay they've lost every game they've lost this year by six points or more. And here's the reason why I like the Browns so much. The Browns rushed the football very well. We know that they're fourth right now in yards per carry, and they possibly get Nick Chubb back this week. They get Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt. Their offensive line has been beat up.

Guess what? They're all back this week. They're all back off a bye. Houston, 31st in rush yards per attempt on defense. We know their efficiency numbers are not good at all on defense. And conversely on offense. Look, Deshaun Watson is a good quarterback. But their offense is not good.

Like, their offense is so hit and miss. It's so up and down. There's no rhyme or reason for what they do. And so, I'm very much in the brownies here at minus three. Two and a half would have been better, but I'll take the minus three. I'm with you a thousand percent. The Browns aren't very good.

Well, they might be pretty good. We'll see now that they're a little bit healthier, but they are 4-0 against the spread against teams without a winning record this season. Meanwhile, Houston is 0-5 against the spread as a dog this year. Romeo Cornell, since 2008, 10-28 as a dog this year romeo cornell since 2008 10 and 28 as a head coach that rush defense is not going to stop nick chubb who at this time looks

very probable to play as you said uh and we're getting the three here this was three and a half for a lot of today as i was preparing for this so this is a lock let's go browns let's let's do it um all right i'll let you you introduce the next game i know it's a game you love so i want you to take this one first because you're gonna have to convince me to do this and i probably will but i want to i want to hear you go on it sure um so the next game is jacksonville at green bay green bay 13 and a half point home favorites so So of course, everybody's going to hold their nose at even the mention of laying the 13 and a half with Green Bay. First of all, you're getting a kind of good number here, right? This was 14 for, you know, it's kind of gone back and forth,

14, 13 and a half. So you're getting the 13 and a half. The Packers, the warning here is the Packers are only one in five against the spread in their last six is a double digit favorite but it won't be here because they're facing Jake Luton on the road at Lambeau Field who covered against the aforementioned Romeo Cornell Texans the trends look bad for the Jaguars Rodgers 6-3-1 against the spread with 10 days off which he's he's coming off that blowout against San Francisco Jacksonville three and five against the spread this year, despite being underdogs, I think in almost every game, I would think, right? Green Bay's defense, they continue to have something to prove after they've looked pretty bad for every week until this past week against San Francisco. Jacksonville's going to have to score, what, 30 points to make this competitive. Do you think that Jamesames robinson and jake luton

are going to keep up with davante adams aaron jones and the packers i'm saying no so um it's jake loon oregon state um no i i prefer luton uh against against the texans and they covered that game i i think i'm with you here because we've seen the packers just kick the shit out of bad teams this year and jacksonville's not a good football team right and they want to lose okay jacksonville wants to lose games 30th and dvoa 21st on offense 32nd on defense right we know the green bay packers when they play a terrible defense like this are going to go off they're going to go off and so this game is to be, and the 13 numbers much better than it was to start the week at 14, 14 and a half. So,

you know, they're going to win this game. What? 38 to 17. I mean, it's not going to be close, right? I don't think so.

And last week. Yeah. I mean, what is his name? Luton. Okay. So Jake Luton last week, the pressure was off of him because Jamesames robinson was able to run for

99 yards against that terrible houston defense i don't think that he is going to have the same amount of success this week and if they're down 14 nothing i don't see them clawing themselves back into it i actually think this is a very good number for green bay and before the texans game i think you mentioned this too jacksonville had lost five in a row against the spread and then four straight as a dog prior to this. So they're just not good at covering because they're not a good football team. Let's put the Packers in there at minus 13. I like the number here. 13 and a half.

Yep. Next up, we have the battle for first in the NFC East. The Eagles laying three and a half at the giants wow wow look i i think the play and it's not the one one that i want to make but yeah we're talking about all these games we are is is the giants here the giants the last month um if i have it right here uh the last six giants games have fallen all within eight points right daniel jones turnover machine but guess what carson wentz also turnover machine and i know the eagles are off a buy but i don't know what about them gets me excited that they're going to play well off this buy giants defense by the way low

key not half bad so i would stay away from this but i like the giants plus the three and a half i we're not putting this in but i'm gonna make the case to disagree with you here philly has to win this week okay their next four no their next five are at cleveland seattle at green bay new orleans at arizona okay that's a problem now i please like daniel jones running to the end zone and falling flat on his face. Don't do that by buying into the Giants barrage. They beat Washington every time. Daniel Jones, four wins against Washington, one win against the rest of the league. And he barely won last week with the quarterback change in the middle of the game.

The Eagles this week are getting healthier off of this bye week. OK, Miles Sanders back at practice. Alshon Jeffrey backed at practice. Jalen Ragoor Lane Johnson should be okay. They are the better team here. If this was three, I'd make the case three and a half. No, thanks. I know they're better, but that half point is pretty important here for the giants. And I just don't trust either team. And when I don't trust either team,

I take the team with the points, Just kind of like a general rule. But this is not a game that we're going to bounce back this week gambling on. Hell no. Not touching it. Moving on to another division battle. This is in the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What a mystery they are.

At the Carolina Panthers. Vegas not scared off by Tampa's flop last week. They are five and a half point road favorites. It's a good game to tease the Bucs down to basically a pick them, in my opinion. That's where you play this game is you put the Bucs from five and a half

to plus half a point, basically. This is not a game. Five and a half is a dead number. It's a weird number. I think Tampa has to bounce back. I don't know what Tampa is. We talked think tampa has to bounce back i don't know what tampa is we talked about this on the show tuesday i don't know what they are i don't know what their identity is um but i want the panthers are they're just they're okay right there they cover these games because they're just good enough christian mccaffrey not playing this week um you know teddy

bridgewater think about how they had to cover the chiefs game fake punt right yep teddy teddy bridgewater had to convert on a fourth game fake punt right yep Teddy Bridgewater had to convert on a fourth and 14 where he dove about seven yards you know to get there and all that being said they had to cover under two minutes right they covered in the last two minutes of the game so I think Tampa comes back renewed they got embarrassed on national television they're gonna beat the Panthers but the play if you want to play this game guys it's to tease Tampa down to basically a pickup yeah that's right um teams this is I told you I had good stats this week before we started teams that lose by 35 or more the previous week go 62

against the spread the following week I doubt they're very often road favorites but this is one of those scenarios Christian McC mccaffrey last week everything had to go right for the chiefs or sorry for the panthers to cover against the chiefs if your call i did want to bet them last week but you talked me out of it the everything did have to go right including christian mccaffrey being the leading rusher and leading the team in catches last week now he's not playing which sucks for my fantasy team and the nfl as a whole i i think if you have to pick this game you pick tampa against the spread and obviously i love your teaser play but we're not taking this no we are not taking this whatsoever um we're out of this

i'm curious about the next game because i don't have a feel on it but i'm curious where you stand yeah gosh we're sort of flying through these here i thought we'd kind of have some more by now but here we go the denver is uh going to vegas uh vegas is favored by five um i don't have a great lean here either i can tell you where i stand if if you. I mean, it's another dead number, right? Raiders have covered the last five in the series. But Fangio is pretty good as a dog. Ten and five so far in his career as head coach with the Broncos.

Look, I just don't really trust Drew Locke. And I don't trust the Broncos' offense. I do trust the Raiders' offense. I think the Raiders will score. I think the Raiders will win this game by a touchdown or more. Like, I would take the Racos offense. I do trust the Raiders offense. I think the Raiders will score. I think the Raiders will win this game by a touchdown or more. Like I would take the Raiders here, but I just, you know, I can't put my money on the Raiders at five, minus five.

It just feels like just, you know, it's just a weird number, man. Yeah, I agree with that. There's a few like really weird things that are going on in this game. First of all, I realized that Vegas is just Seattle, but it's a few like really weird things that are going on in this game first of all i i realized that vegas is just seattle but it's a poor man seattle they have a damn good offense they can go vertical but then they have the 30th defense in dvoa i did not realize they were that bad

uh the strongest unit i think here probably is denver's defense they're still top 10 dvoa the raiders have given up a ton of passing yards, a ton of big plays on defense. So I could see this as a nice backdoor for like Drew Locke, who's like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in the second half. Vegas 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 coming off a win. And this is a great one. 4-7 in games before they play the Chiefs.

They play them next week. They always seem to look ahead to the Chiefs. Maybe that'll be different now that they actually beat the chiefs they play them next week they always seem to look ahead to the chiefs maybe that'll be different now that they actually beat the chiefs this year uh denver weirdly is good on the road against the spread uh this season and last season under fangio but i don't know man yeah i i again there's we're getting now to the i know we're late in the we it feels like we've gone fast through the podcast and we sort of have, but there's a lot of games here that I'd like coming up. Um, and I think we just should go all in on these.

Okay. Let's pass this. I, I, I don't love it. Um, next on the list, Buffalo at Arizona, Arizona short home, one and a half point favorite against Josh Allen and the Bills. All right, guys. I love the Arizona Cardinals in this situation. Okay.

Short home favorite here. Look, Buffalo Bills, all the money's pouring on Buffalo, right? They just beat Seattle. They're back on track. Arizona lost a bad game to the Dolphins. But let's talk about how Arizona lost that game, okay? They lost. Dolphins. But let's talk about how Arizona lost that game, okay? They lost. The Dolphins scored on defense again,

which is highly unlikely to keep up. Two weeks in a row. The Dolphins gave the Cardinals poor clock management, which is a problem with Kingsbury now. It's been a problem. It might continue this game. It a little worries me. But poor clock management and the first half

gave the Dolphins three more points. So 10 points now, basically, out of mistakes by Arizona. And then they missed a 49-yard field goal short. I've never seen that before, Matt. Yeah. It wasn't like wide left. It just was short. And that's how they lost that game.

So the perception of Arizona will be different, obviously, when it's overtime and when I can't. But here's why I like the Cardinals. The Cardinals' offense is fifth in the red zone. They're fourth in yards per play and third in explosive plays. We know that the Buffalo defense, when they play good offense, the Titans recently, the Chiefs rushed for 265 yards, and Seattle scored a ton of points against the Bills.

Right? Kyler Murray now has a touchdown, both rushing and passing, seven of eight games this year. I'm the Arizona offense, scores a ton of points in this game. Their defense limits Josh Allen just enough. It's only a point and a half. So I like Arizona here to cover the point and a half and obviously win this game by two or more.

I'll take the Cardinals. I think I'm with you. I'm not strong on this, but I will say, Buffalo won 4-1 against the spread in their last six on the road. Definitely a better home team. Arizona has done pretty well on defense this year, but Buffalo's defense has really just been terrible. And they've had a chance to play. They played the Jets twice and the Patriots, and they're still giving up more than seven yards per attempt.

So I think that this is a game where Kyler Murray could do really well. Buffalo is also hot. They've won three straight. Arizona coming off a loss that was kind of a fluky and embarrassing one. This is a nice spot for Arizona. I just think we're getting, again, like to go against the theme of the public money, guys. So the reason why we talk about public money all the time, for those who don't understand,

and I'd be happy to explain it to you, it's very important here, is that people that are Joe Schmo, they love to bet popular teams, big favorites, overs, and bet with their heart, right? Buffalo just won a game. They won three in a row, beat Seattle.

They're going to kick Arizona's ass. Let's throw money on them. Well, the smart players don't bet that way. The smart players bet against the public, right? The public, again, bets popular teams, high lines. And there are some players, like we took the Packers, public play. But I'm not backing a Buffalo team on the road who's a public play.

That's not going to make you money in the long run. That's right. And I appreciated that sort of mad money-esque rejoinder you gave us there, where it was just a little basic betting 101. Yeah, when in doubt, fade the public. And we're going to do that here. I like this one.

Let's see if we've got five, a clean five. It's a definite, you know, that one in Green Bay, I feel about equal, but I feel fine about each. I get unlimited for just $30. Impressive. But does yours have 5G included? Of course. And my wireless saves me $400 a year. That's because you all have Xfinity Mobile with your internet. It's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. $30 per line per month. Taxes and fees extra.

Compares pricing of top carriers. Xfinity internet required. Reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. All right, Jeff. Next one we've got it is a great game in the nfc west that we've talked about quite a bit in our

separate off-air conversations uh the seahawks are going to the rams the rams are favored by one and a half what do you think the play here is the los angeles rams And I think maybe in a big way. I think that the Rams off a bye understand that they're now back in the NFC West race, right? Seattle lost that game last week. If they win this game, they're tied for first in the NFC West. But here's also why I like the Rams. You ready? But here's also why I like the Rams.

You ready? Seattle is averaging, allowing, excuse me, allowing, 362 yards a game in the air. They're averaging almost eight yards per pass attempt. Their defense is putrid. I know their offense. I know their offense is good. But the Rams' defense can play a little bit.

The Rams' defense can slow down russell wilson just enough for the rams to win this game right slow just all you gotta do is slow it down just enough the rams uh pass defense is 10th in dvoa so they're just they're good enough right to slow them down enough to where their offense just commands this game, dominates this game. I like the Rams here, short home favorite. I got five, five trends for you, okay? Number one, the Rams are 3-1 against the spread under McVay after a bye. Number two, Seattle last in yards per game allowed this season on defense. That's not a trend, that's just a thing.

Number three, the Rams, 10-6-1 against the spread after a loss under Sean McVay. They get better. Number four, the Rams, 8-1 against the spread after a straight-up loss in their last nine. And finally, the Rams have won four out of their last five against Seattle. So trends say that take the Rams, but in addition to that, Seattle's team has changed, and it coincides with this Chris Carson injury. Without Chris Carson, there is no threat of getting beaten by DJ Dallas, and Russell Wilson just hasn't been good. He hasn't been quite as good as he was. He's been good. He hasn't been quite as good as he was in the beginning of the season when he was the clear frontrunner for the MVP. as good as he was in the beginning of the season when he was the clear front runner for the mvp he's had a lot more turnovers because it's easier to defend against a one-dimensional team so i think that and the other thing is for the rams they have to keep pace with arizona and seattle they're off a buy they just got embarrassed this to me is like one of those slam dunk picks that if we're wrong like that's tough this is the right play i'm 100 with you here i am i think i locked this one in we are locked in rams let's go minus the one and a half cool let's lock

it up next uh the remaining nfc west team the san francisco 49ers plus nine at the new orleans saints yeah this is this uh this one didn't happen, folks. We're not betting this game. I've never seen an injury report like San Francisco's currently. I mean, everybody is down. I mean, if you're to play this game, you do the fade to public, and you take the Niners, and you hold your nose, or you tease the Saints down to three. i think you hope that on sunday this game

gets under nine you could tease the saints under a field goal and that feels like the play to make if you're bad in this game i i can't imagine anyone taking the niners plus nine here the saints plus minus nine i just it's i i wouldn't do it i wouldn't either i actually think the play might be if if you're feeling this at all like take the take the 49ers money line there is something a little bit fishy going on here because this opened at nine and a half everyone's hammering the saints and this is still at nine i kind of feel like this is one of those like san francisco keeps it close maybe pulls it out just in a total fluke but i'm not betting on it it's a bit it's a big stay away for me that's just how i'm reading the tea leaves okay all right okay interesting despite all of the

other you know despite all the reasons logically why that makes no sense um but with 90 of the money this line's still not moving um all right moving on to where are we now we're at the oh the last late game uh the chargers plus two at the suddenly america's darling the dolphins we were all over the dolphins of the fitzmagic era we haven't been on them lately uh is this the week that we jump back on it is not the week it's actually the opposite week um we both i know we both love the chargers yep so here's so listen to why we like the charge i think we can I can encapsulate this, and obviously you can add to this, Matt, in a second.

Please. A couple things here. So Chargers obviously cannot close games, right? They're 1-6 right now in finishing these close games, right? They're 1-6 in games under a touchdown this year. Dolphins have won four in a row. So just by that alone, you would say, especially Dolphins, oh, man, fans in Miami, this game's got to be Dolphins' favorite by 3, you would say, especially Dolphins and Ole Miss fans in Miami,

this game's got to be Dolphins favored by three, four, five, right? But it's two. They're telling you, Vegas is telling you, they think these teams on a neutral field are a pick-em game. They're a pick-em game. So that tells you right now, and we've done this so far this year, that Vegas is telling you their power rankings have the Chargers and Dolphins

very similar in play style and rankings all this stuff and I agree I agree with that if you look at DVOA too the Chargers are very similar but special teams is different Dolphins are better much better special teams here's another reason why I like this game the Chargers can't keep losing games like this like it doesn't exactly you can't just keep losing in the most gut wrenching ways possible. It's your one in six and close games. You have to eventually win close football games. It balances itself out throughout the season or throughout the years. And last week they lost with two drop balls,

back-to-back plays. I hate the fade route, but back-to-back plays in zone, they lost. Now let's talk about the Dolphins, okay? Won four in a row. You know how hard it is to win five games in a row? So far this year, the Steelers are 8-0, right?

They've won. Seahawks started 6-0. Saints are currently 5-0, have won 5-0 in a row. The Titans started 5-0. It's hard to win five straight games in the NFL. The Dolphins are not going to score on defense again this week. Three straight weeks on defense? Are you kidding me? I just think, guys,

the Chargers get back, I assume, off concussion. We're filming this Wednesday night. I would imagine a week off he's playing this weekend. Yep. Return to workouts today. The Chargers are going to win this game. I'm telling you right now. They're going to win this game. Everyone's going to be like, oh my god, the charger to win this game i'm telling you right now they're gonna win this game everyone's gonna be like oh my god how'd they win this game

and lastly the public is throwing money at the dolphins and the line is moving to the chargers like the people cannot bet the dolphins fast enough in this game yep i love the chargers i know it's contrary to everything that everyone thinks and everyone's gonna be like you hate the dolphins no no i think the dolphins are playing really good football but chargers are also pretty good too they just can't close these games out the line blows for us i'd plus me would have been great which word started at we don't hate the dolphins i if i think i've bet the dolphins every single week this season i am obsessed with the dolphins but this is the week to take the chargers and a coast full co-sign with everything you said,

and you said it well and succinctly. What I want to say to people making bets, and this is, you know, you can choose not to listen to me. We went 0-5 last week. But when you said it, the Chargers just can't keep losing games like this, and the Dolphins aren't this good.

Remember, two weeks ago, Tua had 92 yards against the Rams last week he had a really nice game but again weird missed field goal uh defensive touchdown like a lot of things have sort of broken his way and Tua's got the magic he's the only person who can make the Herbert man crush go from a 11 to a 9 like everybody kind of calmed down on Herbert all of a sudden when your best reason to pick against the Chargers is, well, they always seem to lose games, even though that, you know,

I don't think that that's possible for it to keep happening. You have to think logically. Fight that instinct. Take the Chargers. Just do it. Yeah. I'm 1,000% in here with the Chargers. All right.

Well, we're suddenly loaded up with a bunch of games we like, and we've got the two primetime games left. One that looked great at the beginning of the year was Baltimore at New England. The Ravens' seven-point road favorites in Foxborough. Can you imagine? Look, I... Tampa's going to...

I mean, not Tampa. The Ravens are going to kick the shit out of the Patriots. They sure are. They sure are. I don't know if I want to's going to, I mean, not Tampa. The Ravens are going to kick the shit out of the Patriots. They sure are. They sure are. I don't know if I want to bet this game, but the Patriots defense is, I believe is 31st right now. Uh-huh. And rusty of you, 30th in passing.

Yeah. They're not good right now. Their offense also not very good. 24th. The Ravens should kick their ass, but I don't know if I want to put the seven points. Let me try to convince you, because yes, I would like to. You mentioned the DVOA.

Baltimore, a couple of trends here that I really like. I always think of them as this great home team. In most years, obviously, the crowd is different this year. 4-0 against the spread on the road this year. Lamar Jackson with Baltimore on the road. They've covered 11 out of 15 road games with one push. There's seven and three against the spread in their last 10,

where they're favored by more than six when they're the better team, they win. And last year, remember Baltimore beat the crap out of new England's at home. They went by 17. So they are clearly poised to beat the shit out of the Patriots this week. I think we just have to throw away what color this team's uniforms are. They're bad.

They beat the Jets last week by three. The Jets and Flacco was starting. I think that this is a good buy low on the Raven Ravens who people seem to not totally trust because last year they were just like a lock to cover every week. And the Patriots, like we just got to get over it. They're just, they're not good.

I'm ready. I'm ready to throw them out. I'm ready to take Baltimore and not look back. Interesting here. 92% of the money's on Baltimore. Yeah. I mean, look,

we can, we can wax poetic about not betting the public. They are a bit of a public play here. Road popular team road favorite. Let's put them in the maybe because we have five ones already and we can, we'll talk about all of these as we get to the end. Cause we're not going to bet this, this football game.

Yeah. Although I do have some more good stats for it, Jeff. This is the Vikings suddenly hot. They are God. they're road favorites going to chicago two and a half point road favorites what the hell's going on here dalvin cook the last three times he's faced the bears love the stats 35 yards 39 yards 12 yards just something to think about yeah which is part of the reason that kurt or that uh

the kirk cousins has not beat matt nagy's bears because every time dalvin cook goes out there and doesn't do anything uh reminder that cousins is oh and nine on monday night football the worst in nfl history he's actually okay as a road favorite hasn't beaten matt nagy chicago five and three against the spread uh under nagy as a home dog. The pick is Chicago, but I don't think we're doing it. I don't think we're doing it at all. We need time to talk about these picks because we're going to have maybe some disagreement here.

We have in the maybe category, Pittsburgh minus 7, Baltimore minus 7. The ones I wrote down for the 5, I think we liked so far the most Cleveland minus three Green Bay minus 13 and a half Arizona minus five and a half excuse me Arizona minus one and a half Rams minus one and a half Chargers plus two which one of those five would you throw out for Baltimore I mean the 13 and the green bay is is like the one that the most can go wrong there right so that would probably be one that i would i actually i think i feel better with

baltimore minus seven than i do green bay minus 13 and a half right yeah i think i do too yes i i 100 do so baltimore because like we have to i think So Baltimore... Because we have to... I think in this case, we have to choose wisely how many of these public plays that we do. Because I just think that we got a little away from the principles of how we have to do this. Because for weeks, for weeks,

all those public plays were hitting. They were. And last weekend, really the last two weekends, absolutely crushed. Absolutely crushed. I think we have to pick and choose wisely who we back publicly so yes the browns minus three again off a buy healthy offensive line they're going to rush the football all day texans suck yep and deshaun watson not good against pressure the browns have the sixth pressure rate in the NFL on defense. I love it. Chose Baltimore minus seven.

I think you made a very good point on why that's a good play. Arizona minus the point and a half against Buffalo. Again, I think we're overvaluing Buffalo a tiny bit, undervaluing Arizona. That's a sharp play because 63% of the bets are on the Bills and 51% of the money is on the bills and 51% of the money's on the Cardinals. So we're on the right side of that. Rams minus a point and a half.

We love the Rams. And we love the Chargers plus two. Yeah. Which is our sharpest play of the week. That's following a reverse line movement, Jeff. That's, that's, that's some sophisticated stuff right there. Reverse line movement. We'll end with this with another good gambling lesson.

It's actually very easy to spot, but it's important to to spot so we're talking about the public money earlier right so we know books try to 50 50 everything right they want it they want 50 here 50 here because they don't want to you know have a big liability here and there so if you see a lot of bet tickets on a game so let's's say the Dolphins, everyone's been a Dolphins, Dolphins, Dolphins, Dolphins, Dolphins, Dolphins. But the Chargers have a little bit of bets and they can have a decent amount of money on those bets. And the line moves to them. It's called reverse line move.

That's letting you know that there's big money players putting money on the Chargers that move that line closer to them. So then more people have to throw money on the Dolphins to make it up. So like, that's the way it works. So if you see the reverse line movement, you see a team that doesn't have a lot of tickets, but has a lot of money,

that's where the Sharps are putting their money at. And over time, those are the better players. And like I said, it's kind of a hold your nose game. Cause like, oh, Chargers one in six close games. I don't want to bet them. Dolphins win four in a row, but that a thousand percent a sharp play that's right it's uh that's what we i think we both locked that in last this monday so we've been all over that one this whole week and yeah all right guys i feel really good i i did not feel that great about our picks

like the last two weeks i feel great about these I know there's people I've seen that talk about it. They don't like the lines this week. I love these lines. This is like the most – I locked three of these in right away. I like the addition of Baltimore really good. I think that's a good play there. All right, everyone. We're going to do better this weekend.

It's tough to dig out of this hole. We're not going to go 5-0. It's probably not going to happen. It's probably impossible, but we'll take it. We'll be back on the right side of 50%. But a 4-1 in a week will put us right there.

Thanks for staying with us. PrizePix.com. Use the promo code Jeff. Yeah, we got a sponsor. Let's give him a shout-out. PrizePix. It's a lot of fun. Go check him out.

Thanks to our buddy Jordan for reaching out to us, sponsoring us. Already put my lineup together for this weekend. Go to my Twitter feed at Jeff Schwartz. We'll be posting that. out thanks to our buddy jordan for reaching out to us sponsors already put my lineup together for this weekend go to my twitter feed at jeff schwartz we'll be posting that really love have them on board for next couple of weeks all right everyone have a great weekend take care enjoy the football