Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 11

Episode Date: November 19, 2020

Geoff and Matt take a look at the tough Week 11 slate and choose their 5 favorite SuperContest lines. They discuss every game around the league from the Thursday night NFC West showdown to Geoff's pick for a big blowout.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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g-e-o-f-f to get 100 match on your first deposit up to $100. PrizePix is truly daily fantasy simplified. That's prizepix.com, promo code Jeff. It's Thursday, November 19th. Welcome to week 11 of the NFL season. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz, smarter than you last weekend, 2-2-1 in a very odd weekend for gambling the browns the cardinals were just hovering right below 50

had that oh and five week that was bad that kind of crushed us looking to get back going matt matt how are you buddy how you doing i'm good nick our producer points out you're two and one in prize picks last week off to a good start with our partners there. Look, everybody got crushed last week across the gambling world. I actually think we did well to go 2-2-1, especially coming off the schneid of 0-5. So I'm proud of the effort we put forth last week. I am too.

And this weekend is going to be a weird weekend. There's not a lot of lines where I'm like, there's some unders there's some, there's some unders I like. You'll get my price picks. There's some price picks that I like for fantasy, but the lines this weekend are who boy we'll have some fun talking these through.

All right, let's go with Thursday night football, big important Thursday night football game. It might be the first one we actually gamble on. We'll see. Yeah, maybe I'm curious if we're on the same side here. Arizona at Seattle. Seattle laying the three. Open at five and a half.

So a lot of people. Wow, that's a giant line move. What side are you on? I really like Seattle here. Yeah. Yeah, getting three points. I mean, not giving three points. Look, I know their defense is not good and it's a problem,

but they should have beat Arizona a couple weekends ago, right? They had that terrible personnel foul penalty where the guy jumped over the kicker when they missed the kick. They should have won that game. The concern I have for Seattle right now is Russell Wilson's forcing the issue too much. He knows that his defense cannot keep up, and so he's trying to make too many plays when the plays aren't there to be made. It's not just kind of taking what the defense gives him. And last weekend, we saw kind of bad Pete Carroll again, right?

Uber conservative, terrible challenges. And that worries me about Seattle. I feel like they're kind of panicking right now because their defense hasn't improved very much. Jamal Adams hasn't been very good. And I worry about taking him in this spot, but I feel very comfortable off the embarrassment of the last two weekends

if we settle, bounce back on a short week and win this game and cover. I like Seattle too. I'm curious if they're going to make our cut down because there are a few reasons. The first is Russell Wilson is actually bound to regress back i think um to the sort of closer to the player he was the beginning of this season he's close to matching

his career high and turnovers for an entire season and it's week 11 so obviously like he is on a really weird pace considering how hot he was to start the year um there's two really important players in this game that that probably won't play play Chris Carson. I talked about him last week, Seattle's five and one with him in one and two without him. He's probably not playing, but Carlos Hyde practiced fully. Uh, I guess Tuesday, I think that means that he's probably going to come back. That changes their offense, right? Like that givesson a little bit of safety the other piece here is chandler jones and when you look at dvoa for arizona you're like huh their defense is actually kind of good but since week six arizona went from 18 points per game allowed to 33 three sacks gave it a little less than two so all of a sudden you know arizona's defense is going the wrong direction seattle's is still coming together with ad coming back and Dunlap. Yeah. But the last thing, Jeff,

Pete Carroll, eight and one on Thursday night football and Seattle's primetime record, 23, five and one against spread since Carol's been the coach. I think the trends line up. The argument makes sense. I do like this one for Seattle. Yeah.

Also worth mentioning Kingsbury is nine, two, one. He gets a spread on the road as a head coach of Cardinals. But I think this spread is different because I would imagine most of the games he's played have had much larger spreads. Arizona wasn't very good in 2018. So this is a much narrower spread. And I lean Seattle here too. So I'm interested to see how the rest of the week plays out for us. Yeah. Also, I mean, anytime you can get a team coming off of a huge win that everyone watched that now everyone's bought in on one team and is down on the other.

Like this is one where you kind of have to be strong and take, you know, take Seattle here. I would think. Yeah. I'm with you. Okay. Well, let's move to a game which is much more confusing. Philadelphia at Cleveland.

Cleveland is a three and a half point favorite in the super contest. I hate that we got the hook. Well, unless you like the Eagles and then that's not bad. So here's my problem with the Browns this weekend. Do you like the Browns, by the way? Is that where you're going at? I would lean on. I would lean Cleveland, but go ahead.

Okay. So here's my concern with them. The last two games they've played have been in bad weather, right? They played a couple weekends ago to the Raiders. They only scored six points. Played the Texans this last weekend, scored 10 points. Guess what this weekend? Cold, rain, wind in Cleveland. So their offense has not shown they are capable of playing well in that weather.

Baker made for the last two games, 122 yards, 132 yards, no touchdowns. The Eagles can play defense. Their defense is not half bad, right? They can rush the passer. They can disrupt Mayfield when he tries to throw the ball, and they can stop the run. And so I just worry here that the Browns in the last two weekends have not covered in these games when we thought they were going to win.

We bet them to cover against the Raiders. We bet them to cover against the Texans. And they've kind of let us down in that department. Obviously, Nick Chubb should have just scored and we would all been happy. But I worry about the Browns in this spot. Eagles definitely need to win. I don't really trust them. But I don't trust the Browns either.

Yeah, I don't trust either side. They're both 3-6 against the spread. The Browns haven't beat Philly since 1994. How crazy is that? They play once every four years. Yeah, but still. The Browns, you mentioned they played in the bad weather. This is their third straight home game.

I would think that's an advantage. Look, you mentioned the the offense defense matchup one way i'm gonna go the other way here uh miles garrett quietly leading the nfl in sacks and wentz is the most sack quarterback in the league yeah um so i you know this isn't a game where i trust either side so i i think it's probably a pass um i think it's definitely a pass yeah i would have maybe pushed the Browns at three and just probably pushed on them again, but three and a half, no thanks. Moving on to the next game, Jeff,

we've got Atlanta plus four and a half in the Super Contest, which is an interesting number given where that's been. And they're going to New Orleans to face Jameis Winston. All right, make a case for your falcons here i know you like them i've i've i've written off the falcons but honestly i don't have many games i love this weekend so i'd love to hear your your push for the falcons here yeah i mean look it's when we're taping this wednesday night uh it was at five in a lot of places so i'm a little upset we didn't get that um but look atlanta's hot and you know

there's seven and one in their last eight as a road dog and that includes under dan quinn last year if you remember in the middle of the season atlanta looked terrible and then all of a sudden they stopped new orleans in new orleans and it threw everyone off um their offense has looked completely different under raheem Morris since he took over. First in passing yards per game, fifth in total yards per game. And look, I think the Jameis Winston thing is a big deal. You know, we all thought Drew Brees was cooked all year, but he was throwing 18 touchdowns to three picks. Like that's going to go the other way with Winston in there.

New Orleans is strength. I, you know, has obviously been Camara, but, and the problem actually with Camara, now that I brought him up is he's actually not done well against Atlanta in the past 13 total yards per game, less than his other opponents. No TDs in the last six games. If Ridley is back and Julio is healthy you know the New Orleans strength of their defense is stopping the run if those guys can move around a little bit then suddenly the run opens up I just think Atlanta's is a better team than we thought they were and the Saints

without Breeze are a much weaker team than we think worth pointing out since week seven which I believe was the first game right seven eight nine the first three games for raheem morris uh falcons offense fifth and expected points per play uh pretty impressive yeah yeah but with the chiefs and packers and and bucks so um you know i think the winston thing here is important to note right is that he even though he won't turn the ball over 30 times like he does turn the ball over a ton and i might have to lift my rule for no falcons here because i kind of do like i do like the falcons in this spot yeah well if we'd be if we'd been picking them the last couple weeks it's sort of like our no giants rule like the giants all of a sudden are like a cover machine and so are so are the falcons um i i like this one yeah so, so do I. So we'll put it in the yes pile for now.

I'm with you here. Okay. I mean, fading Jameis Winston has gotten us both a long way, betting-wise, in the past. It definitely has, yes. Let's keep riding that horse. Next up, we've got a strange game. Detroit plus two and a half at Carolina.

What do you got here so this is the hard part about doing this on wednesday night is we do not know the status of teddy bridgewater this week and the status of matthew stafford's thumb so this is just this game we can't pick like i can't i can't give you advice on a game where both quarterbacks might play or neither quarterback is going to play. All I know is a Lions defense is utterly atrocious. I believe the last NFL and EPA, they're terrible in DBA. They're a terrible football team. But the Panthers don't have McCaffrey or Teddy Bridgewater.

I can't bet on the Panthers either. So I think this one was more like maybe if we like one of these sides, we leave a slot open, and Friday or Saturday we decide to take a team that we like here. But I was originally leaning Carolina, but I can't make a pick right now. Yeah, I would lean Detroit if Stafford's in there, kind of regardless really of what happens with bridgewater um i think the reasons are well first of all carolina's lost five straight

and i feel like people are just sort of like pricing them in as this kind of good team because they do what they do like they cover they cover big spreads that's what teddy bridgewater does um detroit is just this weird team no one likes to bet on. Since Patricia's been there, 8-12 at home against the spread and 11-10 on the road against the spread, right? Like, you never want to pick them in this spot, and then they seem to deliver a bit more. Carolina's defense, this is what you predicted all year.

They've fallen apart. They're giving up 20 a game every week. And the Lions' offense is flying. They've scored over 20 points in every game this year so i think this is a good spot for detroit if they have the quarterback well when we keep a spot open for for this just to see or we can obviously make a executive decision otherwise i just don't have a great feel for this game um but again it it depends on who plays yeah it's a big part of this i feel bad because a lot of these early games i have no opinion on yep until like the very end and i have really

strong opinions on like the last four games like we'll get to perfect some some great strong opinions from jeff schwartz um as we go down here i can't wait i'm not i'm not subdued i'm just letting you know like i have ones at the end i love okay well maybe i'm curious what you got here because this one is it's just baffling to me uh it's new england at houston uh new england is is a one and a half point road favorite at the texans a lot of changes i believe the line opened up at new england plus three right standard obviously line i guess it's more it's like two and a half 2 now. It might be standard. A lot of money pouring on New England, obviously, to move this line.

Houston should not have covered that game last weekend. They were down 10-0 late into that game and did not play terribly well. But I don't know what to make of New England beating Baltimore. I don't know if that changes who they are, right? It's just a stinky line, dude. right like that's just it's just oh it's just stinky this is a stinky line dude i i i i mean i guess i mean new england but like i don't feel great about any of it it's a very fishy line like what what am i missing here like when these lines got posted it was one and a half for new england everywhere and the money is just piling in on them. And it didn't move. And like a lot of these other lines this week,

they like project a day ahead to like where this is going to go. This one didn't move. New England. Okay. First of all, Houston two and seven against the spread this year and New England. It like they, Houston has the worst run defense in the entire NFL.

And that's all New England can do. Belichick owns Houston. He's eight and two against them I feel like people are just afraid to bet the Patriots here because they were so shaky and they don't want to get caught in the like well they just beat Baltimore like I'm wondering if we're being a little bit like too sharp like what's the case for Houston here oh there's no case for Houston I think the case is that this line has moved so much and we don't want to take the hot team in New England. But your point is exactly right. New England has one way to win football games,

is run the football. And guess what? The Browns ran all over the Texans, right? And New England's going to come in and run all over the Texans. The question I have is New England's defense, is it as good as we saw against Baltimore? But Houston's offense sucks. I don't think it matters who they're playing.

Yeah. Who are you going to get beat by? Duke Johnson and Brandon Cooks? Yeah. I think this is – I'm okay with putting New England in here. I get that it's public, but everybody's on this, and we still are – I know we're not getting the best number here, but we're still getting a good one.

This is going to move. This is going gonna be two and a half three i probably by the end of it i mean there's a lot of money pouring new england obviously i mean we were very public here but i think this is this is i think the spot to be in new england minus minus a point and a half um and by the way i think that win against baltimore could kind of ignite them a little bit right they kind of needed a spark. Yeah. And the spark was this. And I get Bill Belichick against Romeo Cronell.

Like, I kind of like, let's put New England in there. Let's do it. Why not? I mean, sometimes I feel like we're guilty of overthinking this stuff. I feel like in that spot, we definitely are overthinking it. Yeah. So, for now, I feel very good about New England there. This is good.

We're yin and yang. I'm hot on these early games, and then I start to fade. So this is good. Next up, we have Pitt laying 10 points at Jacksonville. What do you think? Okay. So we talked about this when they went to Dallas, and we said, look. And we bet them anyways because we're fucking morons.

Excuse my language. We said, look, the Steelers as big road favorites do not play well. And then they laid an egg against Dallas and they didn't cover that game. They barely won. However, this week, all they're talking about is the fact that they played bad in Dallas and they should play better in Jacksonville. is the fact that they played bad in Dallas and they should play better in Jacksonville. However, however,

they played Baltimore Thursday night football after this game. So we are off the Pittsburgh Steelers this week for that reason. If they weren't playing on Thursday night, and actually it will be Thanksgiving, mind you, Thursday, I would have said,

I'm in on the Steelers. But I'm absolutely not now because they're definitely going to play a bad game looking ahead to Baltimore on Thursday night. Yeah. And this is the third week in a row now that Jacksonville is going to be less like huge dog and potentially surprise people with a cover. I'm,

I'm, I'm very happy to lay off this. I'm earlier in the week. You were kind of in on this. I'm glad we've talked ourselves out of it. It really is because of the schedule thing. Yeah, that makes sense. Like I was, again, I was in on it.

I don't do a good enough job at looking at the schedule ahead, I think. Yeah. And I think I really don't. And I don't know. It's because as a player, I never really, never was like I worried about it. But like, I don't mean as as a player you don't look ahead at the schedule but this is very important when it comes to gambling so um i'm good i'm glad i'm glad we're laying off of it here cool uh moving on to uh the cincinnati bengals at the washington

football team burrow versus chase young kind of a fun storyline uh the football team is favored by one and a half. I mean, I kind of feel like the play is the football team, but I don't know if I want to make it. They're not half bad with Alex Smith in there. No, they're really not, are they? No. I was wrong on that, obviously.

I thought Alex Smith would struggle, but he's continuing to get better. Defensively, Washington is seventh in dvoa um i'm not sure what the bangles do well those are 30th overall in dvoa they're 26th uh in offense and 30th on defense i mean why is this only less than a field goal like what what is what is what are people why is washington not getting more attention because Because they played poorly, I guess, last weekend a little bit. They covered. They came back. They had a crazy finish.

It just feels like – the thing about this line is it feels weird because they should be favored by more, right? I happen to agree. I didn't think we would even consider this. But, look, Washington's past defense uh fewest passing yards allowed per game fifth most sacks burrow's been sacked the second most times in the nfl behind wentz at some point that is going to catch up to them they keep covering these games but burrow hasn't won on the road yet that he did get that tie against philly which is like a hilarious

memory at this point um look alex smith you you said it he's been good he tends to cover washington's the play here but i it's not one i feel great about i don't feel great about either let's uh let's see i'm curious about the next game because i have no feel for this game but i'm curious if you like someone cool so this one is t at Baltimore. The Ravens are six and a half point favorites off of that big win. Look, I guess I can go first. I mean, I would lean Baltimore here, but not by a ton. Tennessee's thing. Tennessee has the best turnover plus minus in the NFL, like kind of by a lot in the AFC. The next closest is Miami. Tennessee's plus 10. Miami's plus five. And look, I just think Tennessee is not very good. Their defense has given up 26 points per game. Baltimore is coming off a loss that's tough.

They already, you know, they had to, obviously Tennessee knocked them out of the playoffs last year. They're back at home. It just feels like Baltimore is going to win. But do you trust them to beat anybody by a touchdown at this point? The only thing that words about Tennessee continues is their third down defense. But again,

because Baltimore though, that's, they're not passing the ball. They're down very often. It's not very scary. And I just six and a half points. Like I just, there's better ones to talk about.

I agree. I'm, I am not interested in putting that one in. But if I had to pick, it'd be Baltimore. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool.

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Okay, next one. Wow, what a game this one is so green bay is at indianapolis in the contest the colts are favored by one and a half um it opened as the packers were two and a half point favorites so very tons of line movement here lots of people weighing in uh what do you think so i don't understand people betting on the packers here and i'll give you a couple So, tons of line movement here. Lots of people weighing in. What do you think? So, I don't understand people betting on the Packers here, and I'll give you a couple reasons why. One, I hit up a buddy who covers the Packers, and he's like this Packers homer as they come.

I said, tell me your opinion on the game. He goes, we're going to lose this game. And I was like, I agree with you. I'll tell you why I think they're going to lose this game. Matt, when they get punched in the mouth physically, they cannot stand up to the fight. And what do the Colts do? They have a good offensive line and they are great on defense and they punch you in the mouth the entire game. And I feel like the Colts are going to do what the Vikings did. They're going to run on them. They're going to play action pass and they're going to

control the game in the trenches. And the Packers will not be able to make enough plays on offense because they'll get physically pushed around on offense. And that's what worries me about this game for the Packers. The Packers have defensive backs that are hurt. Now again, early in the week. So it's hard to discuss injuries. We don't know what's going to happen throughout the week with,

with that. But I just, I'm, I'm concerned about that that about their injuries on on defense um and i think the coach is punching in the mouth well it's interesting because you know i think your argument's fine but the fact is they're the colts defense talk about like this physical defense with this great run defense they've've given up 100, I mean, 98 or more yards on the ground their last five games. They gave up 157 to Derrick Henry and the Titans last week.

But I'm not, but I'll be honest. I don't think rushing defense matters as much in the NFL anymore. Like when you, when you're playing high power teams like the Packers, it's more important to be able to stop the pass than is the run. Sure. Well, I mean, fair point. But I think that everyone thinks of this Indianapolis defense as this very physical team. I don't know. The shine's kind of worn off a little bit.

You talked about this. I forget if it was last week or when the last time we talked about this was. This opened with Green Bay as a favorite because that's where vegas has this one rated and then everyone hammered the colts because for some reason they're just like everyone's favorite team to back this year the colts yeah who what's the best win the colts have like green bay doesn't have a ton of great wins stacked up but the colts best win was tennessee tennessee and green bay did beat the saints i mean i mean i mean they did be they beat baltimore too i mean fine i still think the saints are the best win that they've that either of these teams have green bay's put up 22 or more in every

game uh and look the other thing is is if this thing becomes a game look both these teams like to control the pace but if this becomes a shootout at all, it's obviously going to Green Bay, right? If Rivers has to throw, if he's pressured, he throws a ton of picks if he's blitzed. I know that his like completion percentage is pretty good, but he's making quick decisions and that's the spot you want to be in as a defense.

Look, I think Green Bay is, I'm not worried about Green Bay at all here, but if we're on different sides, let's pass it. look i i think green bay is i i'm not worried about green bay at all here uh but you know if we're on different sides let's pass it i i think we're on different sides here i just i can't i how how many on your scale of like one to ten ten being the greatest what do you feel about the packers feel i mean i feel fine i don't know i don't't feel, I don't know. We were only two weeks away from an O and five. So I, you know,

I don't know how much confidence I actually warrant, but that's, I'll put them in the, I'll put them in the maybe spiral. I don't know. It's like the Colts that you like, you really feel good about Phillip rivers winning this game. Like you really do.

I think it's, I think it's, it's the parts around him when this game, Naheem Hines and Jordan Wilkins are around him win this game naheem hines and jordan wilkins are gonna win this game i i don't know we keep doubting the colts man they keep doing it too well let's we'll pass on this maybe you and i can have some side action on this one the next one we've got is uh another one that i'm wondering if we're overthinking as a group it's dallas at the vikings the vikings are laying the seven you got a feel here yeah so

all the money's on dallas and i do not understand why i don't either no idea because because andy dalton's starting yeah do we have we watched andy dalton and did you want i like did we see him play when they put up three points against washington like what what are we doing? Yeah, I don't understand why this is the way it is. Look at the Vikings now have won, what, three straight in a row? Three in a row. The offense has scored 29 points per game over the last six contests. Their offense is starting to roll. Defense is starting to play a little bit better, right?

They shut down the Packers. Obviously, the Bears aren't terribly impressive to shut down. Yeah, I think the Vikings minus seven here, we get two extra points. It feels like, are we going to trust the Cowboys? Are we trusting the Cowboys? No, we're not. First of all, the thing about, betters know this about Mike Zimmer. Mike Zimmer's team's cover, right? And this year, they kind of got off to this clunky start, but now they're back up to six and three against the spread. They're a pretty safe play. The thing I think that we're all forgetting is how bad dallas is okay they're allowing more points per game on defense than anyone since the oh and 16 lions jeff they're

terrible and meanwhile if you take the best running back receiver receiver tandem in the entire nfl who's beating cook theelin and jefferson Jefferson right now I'm not sure anyone is um Ezekiel Elliott this is just again how bad the Cowboys are does not have a hundred yard game yet this season Dalvin Cook's backup has a hundred yard game this season I I just think this is just a slam dunk and there's something holding everybody back here from just laying it with Minnesota I guess we're all worried about Cousins he's's much better as a favorite. 15-10-1 against the spread in Minnesota. And 9-8 is a dog. You want him as a favorite. I'm in.

I think he got like off the Schneider, the football Schneider too, right? He's kind of like off of that now. Dallas gave up 49 points to the Browns, Jeff. 49. Oh yeah.

Let's do 49 points to the Browns, Jeff. 49. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Let's do Minnesota in there. I know it's kind of square, but I just... Is it, though, because all the money is in the Cowboys? I guess. All right. Then maybe we're sharp. 63% of bets, 76% of money is on the Cowboys.

That's so strange. Yeah. Open at 9.5. I guess people love Mike McCarthy off the bye. Cool. I'm willing to go against that yeah fine with me cool love it let's love it all right i feel good i'm glad i felt like i was going crazy i was like who out there is taking the the fucking cowboys they're terrible i'm i'm with you buddy all right well i just got emotional i don't i'm not exactly sure why let's let's go to uh to miami uh everyone's favorite team miami is at denver uh miami three and a half point road favorites thoughts um

oh man at some point the dolphins cannot keep this pace up right of scoring on defense teams every single week this is probably not the week that they're gonna suck so um i i i don't feel awesome about this when i was in college jeff i saw this band called the black keys at this little crappy bar in chicago and no one had heard of them and i was like i'm telling you guys this band is really good you got to check them out and that And that was us with the Dolphins with Fitzpatrick. We were betting him every week. And then Tua came in. And now everybody's betting the Dolphins every week.

But we were there first. We saw them at the bar in Chicago. We were on the Dolphins train early. And I'm a little bit worried that everyone's in on them. But if they're going to ever cover a game, it's this. Which I don't want to do it. But Denver turns the ball over constantly. And all Miami does is score off the turnovers right denver leads the nfl in giveaways no no drew lock right

potentially no drew lock if it's brett ripping which actually which actually might be good yeah brett ripping though threw three picks against the jets so i'm you know that's a real sophie's choice there but i feel But I feel like this is just a – some of this game I don't feel comfortable about. Miami's – Are you in the same boat as me? Yeah, but Miami's 7-2 against the spread this year. Best in the league.

Like, why are we scared of this one? I'm with you. I'm scared, but why? Because I feel like at some point it has to come down. Yeah. Like, they can't keep winning this way sure but if it's brett rippin are we are we not confident that they're gonna win by four points i think we should put it as a baby this is one of those like the panthers one right it's like a baby

like depending on okay miami minus three and a half okay that's a that's a maybe i think we have to at least advance it. There's there's, but I know that you're, you're hot on a few of these other ones, so we'll put it in the pile. All right, Jeff, I'm just going to tee this up for you and lay out. You've got your chiefs laying seven and a half at the Raiders.

Yeah. Let's let's hear it. Okay. So here's, here's the thing, guys, the chiefs. If you, if you can imagine a beat down the thing, guys. The Chiefs, if you can imagine a beatdown in the NFL,

you should imagine what the Chiefs are going to do to the Raiders. Let's just take out the news that the Raiders' entire defense cannot practice or play until Sunday. Let's take that out of the equation. Let's talk about what's happening. I told you guys this all year long, and I have not been wrong about this. The Chiefs this year have had times where they played uninspired, right? Do you agree, Matt?

They've been uninspired. They have not been very, you know, they've not been into games. And guess what? They still cover the games. They still win the games. Guess what, folks? They only motivated to play the Raiders this weekend. After A, the Raiders went into Arrowhead and beat them.

Two, the Raiders took a victory lap in a bus outside Arrowhead Stadium. And the Chiefs have been very aware of this. They made us aware the entire week the Raiders have done this. Andy Reid knows about this. Three, they're off a bye. Andy Reid, 7-4 against the spread, off a bye. He's Chiefs head coach. More specifically, 3-1 with Pat Mahomes.

He's 18-3 overall his entire career, just winning the game outright after a bye. Fantastic after a bye. Division opponents on the road. As a Chiefs coach, Andy Reid is 17-5 against the spread. Okay? He owns division opponents. So I get a highly motivated Chiefs. By the way,

number one in offense still. Did we forget they're number one in offense? Number one in offense. Number six in pass defense. Entering, I mean, out of the nine weeks they've played so far, they've had nine games. Right?

In eight of the nine games, excluding the Raiders game, they've allowed only 20 pass plays over 20 yards. They allowed six excluding the Raiders game, they've allowed only 20 pass plays over 20 yards. They allowed six in the Raiders game. They did not play well in that game and only lost by eight. Pat Mahomes had problems in the pocket.

He has since fixed those problems in the pocket. I just, guys, they're going to kill the Raiders. I'm letting you know. I know you think I'm a Chiefs fan. I have a Chiefs helmet there. My brother plays in the Chiefs. I get all that.

And you guys know, I do not bet the Chiefs very often. In fact, I tell you to do the other way. Just I don't want to put money on the Chiefs. But this weekend, Matt, I'm putting a lot of money on the Chiefs. I would advise everyone else to put a lot of money on the Chiefs. I think they're going to go into Las Vegas and put on a show. And last point, last point. Andy Reid has no problem running up the score.

No problem, right? Denver Broncos 2016. They're up 27-10 in the fourth quarter. Guess what? He has Don Terry Poe, the 350-pound defensive lineman, throw a touchdown pass at the Wildcat formation. He doesn't give a shit

just telling you i don't give these i don't give like these former players motivational type things like the chiefs are going to be so motivated for this game and the raiders acted like they won the super bowl in october i love the chiefs. Favorite bet of the year. Wow. Well, obviously not going to go against that. Let's put it in. I mean, what are your thoughts on this game? I think that, look, I expected this one to be a little higher with this news that broke today of the Raiders, possibly entire defense in danger of missing the game because of COVID. So I was a little surprised this didn't jump up to like eight and a half.

So I'm fine with it. You know, I'm in. You had me convinced. I was certainly worried that we were going to be square on this, but like, I think we're actually not getting a terrible number. So let's fly. Fine with me. All right, next up.

Let's go. I am guessing you don't feel quite as convinced about the Chargers laying eight and a half points to the New York Jets at home. That's just a guess. You would have guessed correctly. I do not. I have in my notes here, I have pretty thorough notes for every game. With this one, I said, can I even trust the chargers in survivor this week?

Like, can I, can you actually even trust them to win this game? Like I am terrified of having to pick them potentially. And Justin Herbert, by the way, cut his hair. Now that might be good.

Maybe Justin Herbert, we look at him and say, man, he needed, he needed a haircut change. He needed to need to change it up. But I, I know. Yeah. No no jets by the way losing road

games this year by an average score of 30 to 8 oh that's that's not great um not good i think we may be a little bit out of order here but now we're on to the monday night game which is the los angeles rams at the bucks the super contest has this at the Bucs. The Super Contest has this at the Bucs minus four, which is interesting because it's moved around a bit too. I know you have a feel for this, so I'm curious what it is. Okay, so here's the way I like the Bucs in this game. I know the line's four.

I'm going to do my Jim Rowan. You can hear my notes being fully angry. Be angrier. Just be a lot angrier to make the point. So here's the reason why, and I've done this throughout the year, where I bet based on the offensive, defensive line matchups, right? And the Rams lost their left tackle, Andrew Whitworth, at least to the end of the regular season.

And even a small sample size, 17 snaps without Andrew Whitworth on the field against Seattle, the pressure rate against Goff jumped 10%, Matt. 10% in a single game without their left tackle. Jared Goff is not good against pressure. Out of 33 qualified quarterbacks, he ranks 31st in completion percentage under pressure. He ranks 28th in yards per attempt and 29th in passer rating.

What does Tampa Bay do really well? They rush the passer, right? Very good on defense. And what the Rams don't do well on offense is when they get behind the chains, right? They get the third and long. Jared Goff is not the same guy. The Rams are running into a defense in the Bucs that stops the run as well. They're a very well-rounded defense. I don't think the Rams are going to move the ball very well in this game. That's why I like the Bucs that stops the run as well. They're a very well-rounded defense.

I don't think the Rams are going to move the ball very well in this game. That's why I like the Bucs here. The one concern for me is that the Rams actually also have really good defense. And I do not know if Tom Brady can move the ball very well. But, I mean, this could be like a 17 to 10 game. I don't think a lot of points are scored in this game. But I definitely don't think the Rams are going to score many points at all. Yeah. So I look, the, the thing about this game, Jeff is I feel like we could come out of it and tell 10 different stories. And part of the reason for that is that the bucks some weeks score 50 points and some weeks score three points. I feel like I don't

totally trust them. I get that this whitworth angle is smart and a lot of people are on it too um i think that you know we could come out of this game and it could just be like wow tampa just murdered jared goff jared goff has has not been good at all this year um you look at the rams offense production there everybody's numbers are down on a team where like this preseason everyone was so hot on like Van Jefferson and even Josh Reynolds. Like none of these guys like have really, they've only have one rusher once Henderson in week three had 114 yard rush game.

No a hundred yard rush rushers other than that. Tampa, I think has more ways to win. So I would be okay with this, but I just, I, you said it like, I don't totally trust ways to win. So I would be okay with this, but you said it. I don't totally trust them against a good defense until they prove it a few more times. The thing about it, though, is how many points

do the Rams score in this game on offense? 17? 14? And does Tampa get 21? Yeah, I'm with you i mean i i i think i'm i'm on the bucks too um but they're just a team that's hard to trust and i do respect the rams like i i think they're pretty good and you know if anyone's gonna know that their left tackle is out and they have to adjust their game plan it's mcveigh right like they're gonna do a bunch of like weird stuff behind the line of scrimmage to compensate for it and in the first

quarter will be like why didn't we see this coming like that's just how he is there's we've seen it not work well this year for the ravens and times when they've lost their left tackles too that's that's a concern one all right let's go to the so right now we have atlanta in for sure new england for sure okay minnesota in for sure kansas city in for sure. Minnesota in for sure. Kansas City in for sure. So that leaves us four options. Seattle minus three that we liked. I put Green Bay in here.

I just don't like Green Bay. I'm going to just call. And then we have Miami minus three and a half or Tampa minus four. I hate doing Thursday Night Football because then I feel like we start the week off either good or bad and the bad hurts more than the good yeah i mean when you look at these teams sometimes sometimes you just gotta think about this we could potentially bet against drew an injured drew lock with the hottest team in football as our fifth one here i i mean that that wasn't one that i was planning on putting in, but looking at these, I kind of think Miami might be our fifth player.

I feel like now we're jumping back on the bandwagon, but I think you're kind of right here. Like, they had this... But we were at the show, man. We were at the early show. We were in on this underground band before they got popular. It's okay if we like them again.

Yeah. All right, let's put the put the dolphins in there for now oh man you and you like them a lot right i who are you deciding against right i think like or two on the road against a good defense. Or are they a good defense, though? I think they are. Like, honestly, are they? I think they are. But, I mean, it's, oh, man. I feel like I jump on the bandwagon now, man.

I feel like I'm going to, like. All right. Typically, I've been wrong when I vetoed you. So, I will, at least least today as we're recording this, I will put Miami in there over Tampa. I mean, you were hot on Tampa all week. So if I'm going to be the one who's – it's your podcast, man. If you love Tampa, let's do it.

And we can always talk each other out of it. We can always talk each other out of Miami. Look, make sure, guys, check to my Twitter on Sunday. I give you all the official picks. We typically just change one. Let's be on Miami now. I am worried about Tampa's offense against the Rams' defense. That's my concern.

Yep. I have less worries about just Miami just playing really good football. They're just focused every week, right? Their play style is not sustainable. They can't sustain the way they're playing, but I don't think that's important here. All right, so Atlanta plus 4.5, New England minus 0.5, Minnesota minus 7, Miami minus 3.5,

and the Chiefs minus the 7.5. Good? We're good there, Matt? I feel good, Jeff. We did it. This was a minefield of a week, but I think we came out on the other side. It's getting increasingly tougher, too, on Wednesdays with all the injuries, but we make it work.

Yeah. And Vegas is getting better at this. There aren't as many where I stare at and I'm like, well, that's off. Everything kind of makes sense. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. Go to prizepix.com. Enter your fantasy lineup. It's fantastic. It's a ton of fun.. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. Go to prizepix.com. Enter your fantasy lineup. It's fantastic.

It's a ton of fun. I did it last week. Matt did it last week. We're two and one. We had a ton of fun. Promo code Jeff. Enjoy PrizePix this weekend. Talk to you guys on Tuesday.

Have a great weekend. Football, one last thing. Oregon, minus 13.5. Take a peek at that on the college side. Give you some good news there. All right, guys. Have a great weekend.