Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 12

Episode Date: November 26, 2020

Geoff and Matt take a look at the Week 12 games and choose their 5 favorite SuperContest lines. An overlooked Buffalo team should roll at home against the Chargers, Pittsburgh looks to stay undefeated against Baltimore despite the game being moved to Sunday and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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deposit up to 100 prizepix is truly daily fantasy simple fun it's thursday november 26th happy thanksgiving folks it is a turkey day unlike really any other turkey day we've ever had. Coming off another tough week. Oh, boy. It's been three tough weeks. But I'm glad to have you back here, Jeff Schwartz, alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart on the U podcast. Matt, we are, should I say our record the last three weeks?

Or should we just let people guess it? Whisper it. Don't say it too loud. I don't want people to actually hear it uh 12 2 no actually no i said 12 i said it backwards we're 2 12 and 1 it's nearly impossible to be this bad at gambling like even if you are just like uh uh excuse my language like just some lowly schmuck who just gambles on the corner like doesn't know anything like it's hard to be this bad the last three weeks. So if you want to listen to this podcast and fade us,

be my guest. I actually, tweet me at Jeff Schwartz. I faded your picks this week because Matt, we have not been good. No, Jeff, we haven't. We've been quite bad. Look, I had a little like, I had to sort of talk to myself

and have like a real conversation about this. Be like, am I, are we bad? Do we suck? And I don't think we suck. It's nice to sort of see other people we know in this space get murdered this year. Everyone's had a rough three weeks. I think that this is sort of one of those years that this, I mean, look. Look what the hell's happening in the world.

I think that it might be hard to predict things that are going to happen in 2020. Here's a great example. Last week, you love the Chiefs. They were playing the Raiders, who they already had lost to. The narrative story made a ton of sense. And then they missed all this time, the Raiders defense, in practice because of COVID stuff. How does that not work out? Like, that just doesn't make any sense.

For some reason, there's these games where the defense can't practice and and they play fine anyway like how does that make any sense well and think about this too i mean if robinson runs the right route at the end of the half chiefs probably cover that game but said pat those interception and then you know the first half ends without the chief scoring points and just it would it was but you could tell early on the raiders were going to score points and it i didn't i didn't see that i didn't see it coming but we didn't see and look and the other games we like like i liked i like tampa bay a lot i love tampa heading into this weekend yeah and they got smoked too so um we're going to go through the list as usual yeah we're going to choose five teams you know we weren't 56 through eight weeks

yeah and also like we've been right about some of the games that we've left off. Washington was one we liked last week. We really liked Seattle last week. I don't have the list in front of me, but we tend to be right. And then maybe we just suck at deciding stuff. Maybe that's the problem. We talk our way out of it. Look, we don't do a lot of Thursday games,

but I might try to convince you on this, this first Thursday one. We'll see how it goes. You know, it's Thanksgiving. Maybe it's, I think maybe this is the time to break the streak. I mean, what, what else do we have to lose? All right, let's hear it, man. Texans at lions. Please tell me you don't want to lay three points on the road with Romeo Cornell at Detroit.

So here's the reason why I like the Texans minus three. The line movement has not been ideal, right? at Detroit. So here's the reason why I like the Texans minus three. Jesus Christ, Jeff. The line movement has not been ideal, right? Because we know this opened up and lines were favored. But here's why. Let me talk you through it.

I'll talk you through it. I've died just listening to this. Here's the reason why. Okay, so do you know who the top-rated quarterback is in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus

the last eight weeks of the season? I'm going to guess Deshaun Watson yes Deshaun Watson since Romeo Cornell took over Deshaun Watson's averaging almost 300 yards passing a game and over two touchdowns um I know the wins haven't exactly come to the Texans no they haven't but he's playing very well the Lions defense is atrocious they're 30th in the nfl and pass coverage they're 23rd and pass defense but here's also a problem with the lions they're injured right now right matt stafford has a thumb problem he's gonna play but gall day is out swift is out okuda is out and this offense is different without without gall day in there right mass stafford throws for almost 30

less yards it's not as efficient doesn't move the ball down the field as much and texans defense is god awful i get it um i think the texans cover the three i know it's it's crummy i don't feel great about it but um i loved one of the other games got moved off the schedule but i would consider doing houston minus three well it's funny because in a normal year this would be one where you would definitely be on the side of well you got to take the lions here home dog coming off an embarrassing loss it was the first shutout of matt stafford's career his whole career so obviously a little bit of an aberration this is also like here's a trend for you teams that are road favorite after being a home dog the week before 79 and 96 and 6

against the spreads is 03 deandre swift i think is a huge factor here if he is not playing he's not he's out he's questionable i just looked as as he didn't practice a bit because no they know no they the the lions reporters and now he's out. Okay. Well, that makes this a little bit tougher to stomach. I mean, without Galladay, Okuda, Amendola already, that's tough. But look, you mentioned Deshaun Watson. I'm not disputing. He's been great.

They are averaging 23 points a game. That's the same as the Washington football team. They suck, man. They're one and four against the spread on the road this year. The play here in a normal year, and if even one of those guys was healthy would be detroit yeah sorry by the way you you were right he's questionable i went back and looked at the report it was all the other guys that are out donors that this questionable so gallaudet amandola okuda out you're right deandre swift is is in but really are we changing our bet based off a running back? I would have been okay with taking Detroit here. So it's not a change for me.

So like, but here's the thing though, is that at some point we have to decide if we're going to ditch like picking the fun teams to win and just start picking the shitty teams that cover at home like we normally used to do. So it's way less fun. You guys probably won't enjoy it. But, you know, 79% of the money is on Houston right now.

Like, this is an old-school bet the Lions. But I can't trust them with these injuries. Like, I can't do it right now. So I would rather stay away from this game than bet on the Lions. I would rather – the Texans I will not accept. So we can move this off the list because I, you know, coming off of one win against new England to is overinflated because

of their one win the week before this line just feels totally fishy to me. Well, it moves almost five points. So, all right, Houston is out. Let's go next.

Love it. Look, hopefully we decided that to get that well together, but if we're assholes again, this week, we'll know very early tomorrow. That's a very nice thing. The next one is a game very important to me

and my fellow Washington football team fans. It's Washington at Dallas, and our line is plus two and a half for Washington. The two and a half is just stabs right in the heart. I wish this was three. We've seen some threes this week. Obviously we didn't get three this week. You know,

I've gone all different ways through this game and I just can't find a way that I like either one enough to put in this. I just like, you know, Dallas, look, if you look at their schedule, the way out,

they should be the favorite to win the NFC East. They have the easiest schedule finishing up. By far. Andy Dalton's the best quarterback when healthy in this division right now. He's better than Alex Smith. He's better than Daniel Jones. I mean, that's how bad a division is. Would you agree with me on that or not?

I can't believe, I actually am not sure I agree. I think Daniel Jones might be. That's insane. That's not good. The Cowboys defense the last four weeks, and one of those was a bye week, though. They were seventh best in the NFL. Their defense is playing a little bit better now.

They're flying around a little bit. They're playing more physical. They're not making so many mental errors. But Washington's not a bad football team, I don't think. I don't know. Are they bad? I just don't trust Dallas' defense to hold the lead late in the game so i can talk myself on either one which means you should bet nobody who do you like yeah

i'm the same i mean i i think that washington will win this game um because of all of the tea leaves for dallas right like they get a big statement win off of a buy then they get four days instead of the two weeks they had to game plan for Minnesota, they have this easy schedule coming up. Remember Washington killed them just a few weeks ago. It was week seven. They sacked Dalton six times. They won 25 to three.

And this is, you know, the most highly rated Dallas has been since the first week Dalton was in there. They averaged 32 points per game against Jeff. This Dallas defense sucks. So I think Washington probably wins, but I do not at all feel comfortable making the play. Not two, three, I might be like all in on Washington.

But the two and a half that matters, that half point really matters a lot. So let's stay away from now. I wish I will get to the rescheduled Thursday night game. I love a team in that game. And I'll explain that when we get to it. But the next game on here, I think we're going to find our first one. Okay, good, because I don't have a great feel for it. But before we do that, I want to give the people at least what we're leaning towards for thanksgiving if if they had since both these games are probably going to be out i'm leaning on detroit and washington even though underdogs almost always lose on thanksgiving yeah i'm curious what you're where you're gonna go yeah look i i had a fun little teaser that i had

for another show but we can't do it obviously i i te tease the um the lions and texans down six points i bet the over 45 and a half in the 20 games these teams have played this year 18 of those games gone over that number so there's a lot of points there's a lot of points um being uh you know being being scored in that game so i kind of like the over in that game if you can tease that down and i think i think in the second game you just take washington plus nine right or plus eight and a half and you take the points there the over in the early game you root for a lot of points in my opinion um also uh for prize picks i took deshaun watson over i think he hits a he does really well i took alex smith over actually i think the cowboys defense is not good enough and alex smith outside last weekend has

actually played pretty well. He doesn't throw a lot of touchdowns though. Kind of worrisome. So I think that's the way to play this game is, is you go, you know, the over in the early game and you go with, you grab some extra points with Washington. Love it. Sorry, grandma.

I can't talk. I'm teasing the over for the Texans and lions. I'm a little busy. That's I can't wait for somebody who listens to this to say that. Yeah. Maybe over Zoom to their grandmother. That's why you come here. That's why you come here. You don't come here for Matt's feels.

You come here for teaser information. Well, apparently somebody is sticking around just to hear if I have a feeling every week. So thanks to that guy. Next up, we've got a game I don't have a feel for. So talk me into it. It's the Titans plus three at the Colts. All right, so if you were to guess, if you were to guess via our friends at the Action Network

who do a great job of putting down where the money's going in a game, if you were to guess the team that has 70, no, sorry, at the time we're taping this, 73% of the bets and 85% of the money. We're taping this the night before Thanksgiving. Which of those teams do you think, Tennessee or the Colts? I would imagine the Colts for sure.

No, all on Tennessee. Another, all, yes, shocking, shocking. I love the Colts minus three for multiple reasons. That's one of them, by the way. This is a fake to public. These plays have not been winning, right? The large public bets have not been winning. I'm shocked of them, by the way. This is a fake to public. These plays have not been winning, right? The large public bets have not been winning. I'm shocked there's money in the tights.

I think because we saw them come back from 11 points and beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road. But here's the deal. I get the better offensive line in Indianapolis. I get the better defensive line in Indianapolis. I get the better defense in Indianapolis. I don't get the better quarterback. I get it. But Phillip Rivers, guys, i know we've wanted to hit him all year it's hard

he's kind of playing okay like he's doing a good job he's been really good under pressure by the way with tennessee by the way gets no pressure they're also last place on third down continuing to be last place on third down here's something important too that we've overlooked this year but i think we need to really look at this culture six and special teams this season times your 30th right also in the last 24 matchups between these two teams colts have won 20 of them like i feel like you get the better colts team i know they lost in overtime oh did you mean the one overtime they allowed 28 points in that first half otherwise your defense has been fabulous this year and lastly i end with this tennessee's offensive line situation is a mess, right?

They have a backup left tackle who now got hurt. A backup left guard. Now, Saffold might play this week. I don't know. But their offense has just not been the same without that offensive line. Ryan Taylor hasn't played as well. Derek Henry did okay in the second half of that game.

Obviously, he gave him a touchdown. I can call it to a better team here, and they have history on their side, and they're playing good football right now i was leaning towards indy um so i i'm i'm cool with putting this into the next phase of our maybes um look i i also think you know for tennessee that was a big win for them last week an emotional win there was clearly some stuff going on with those two teams tennessee and baltimore indy I mean that Packers Colts game was maybe the strangest game I've ever watched like I don't know who deserves more credit I think

that oddly Indy deserves some credit for winning that game because they did everything they could to blow it I mean at the end of the game with those holding penalties they let aaron rogers get the ball back again um and they should have lost but somehow they ended up holding on um despite doing their best to blow it i and i remember i like the colts in that game too yeah you you were big on the pack i was just like guys man like their physical team i mean it was just a strange one doing better i mean and the other thing is like yeah derrick henry succeeded against uh indy the first time that they played he had 100 plus and five yards per carry but they still they got they lost by two scores so i don't think that like the derrick henry factor here is going to be a huge one uh i'm fine with this i'm fine with taking it a year uh yeah i'm i'm let's first one in let's do it done wow one that i definitely did not expect

to be in i'll take it um okay i do have some feelings on this one here it's the teddy bridgewater bowl uh the panthers plus three and a half at minnesota yeah this one's pretty interesting um obviously minnesota played really bad this past weekend against dallas but i think minnesota is the the side here again i know Bridgewater is coming back for this game, but Minnesota is kind of fighting for their lives right now, and the Panthers aren't. And the Panthers' defense, I don't think, can handle Dalvin Cook and what the Vikings' offense can bring.

The question, though, I have, though, with this game is Thielen on the COVID-19 list, right? So this is one of those games where I feel great about Minnesota, but only if Thielen plays. Like, I feel like we have to put this game in as a maybe, but Minnesota, to me, feels like the right side here. And I think everyone's going to jump off the Minnesota bandwagon after that bad loss and bet on Carolina here,

which makes me feel good about taking the Vikings. Yeah, Carolina's like the new Miami. It's like the public scrappy underdog team that everyone likes. Completely with you on Thielen. Guy's having an amazing season. Carolina. So is this a maybe game then until we get Thielen back? Yeah, I think that's what we do.

I mean, he tested positive and negative on the same day, so they're hoping it's false positive is last we know. Carolina 25th best run defense in DVOA. Vikings 38-13 against the spread under Zimber after a straight-up loss. Bridgewater might be a little limited still. I think the Vikings are the play. I'm good with putting them in there. Obviously contingent to the field and play.

So we'll make that be known to the public. Next up, another team the public loves to bet. The Chargers are 5 and a half point dogs at buffalo what do you think yeah this is uh this is fairly interesting um yeah i really think the thing i worry about taking buffalo here and i think you like buffalo too um is the backdoor cover with justin herbert coming down late in the game and getting them close enough to be within striking distance. I don't think this game, the Chargers will win this game, but I'm terrified of Herbert being down 10 with two minutes left,

driving the field and scoring to backdoor cover this game. The Chargers, obviously, we know they won last weekend, but they still struggle to put away the Jets. They don't finish games very well. And Buffalo has not had that problem this year. They're off a buy. I think their offense will be explosive. They'll find good ways to get guys open.

They'll score a ton of points. Can the Chargers keep up against, you know, an okay to below average Bills defense? I think, I actually think this is my favorite play of the week, Buffalo, for a few reasons.

One, we're getting a good number, despite this is open at six. It's sort of like hovering around five and a half, I think, because Vegas just knows that people are going to love to bet the Chargers. Buffalo's like this weird forgotten team. They've been a really good team this year. I mean, they beat the Raiders, the Seahawks, the Rams, the Dolphins. They're a real team. The Chargers, just a reminder, week one they beat joe burrow with no training camp uh in a fluky win that in a game they should have lost and then their other two wins in this amazing

herbert era they beat the jets at home and they beat the jags at home they're not good like they're fun their offense is very fun to watch it's good but they're not good and buffalo is very good and they're getting less than a touchdown at home off a bye sean mcdermott six best in the nfl since he's been a coach uh against the spread with some pretty assy teams in that mix um so i i trust buffalo a lot here and i think that you're getting a little bit of a steal with this number i'm good with putting buffalo and i just needed someone to convince me to do so. Because I kind of agree with you. Like, it's – it shouldn't be that hard. I mean, Buffalo's just better, and the Chargers just haven't been able to win and cover these games very much.

They haven't. I like Buffalo a lot. All right, let's put Buffalo in there. Next game – Oh, boy. Oh, boy, Jeff. I'm scared of even mentioning this because I'm afraid of what we might have to do. It's your New York Giants laying six points at the Brandon Allen-led Bengals?

Question mark. It's just... This is the opposite of the holding those in bet game because normally you're taking the underdog at home and in this case you're taking the favorite on the road in a game where the giants don't beat the bangles by seven points like what are the giants right the bangles are elevating a practice squad player over their active roster backup who they drafted last year that's how bad things that's how bad giants off a buy i geez it's not the right number. That's the problem. This is a six and it's at five and a half right now. Most places that that's good.

That's I don't love that. I mean, what is this game? It's game is 24, 10, right? Like it's not the Bengals scored a bunch of points in this game, a short week.

Like they don't like, they don't, I mean, the Giants defense is another 28th and dvoa terrible the problem is no mixing geo bernard has a concussion so it's possible he won't play the giants are better on the road than at home under jones having said all that we had a no giants rule a few weeks ago and i am fine laying off of this even though like how i mean burrow could be worth 10.

He could be worth more, like legitimately 10 points to this team, just given what he does to them emotionally. Yeah. You know, this could be a block. Yeah. I'm going to put the Giants in the,

in the, in the maybe category. I feel like I need a shower. We'll see what we, we'll see what we have for the rest of this. Because the, the next one is, it is a lot of fun. Let's have fun with this one, buddy.

Okay, Jeff. I don't know what the fun is going to be here, but it's Cleveland laying six and a half at the putrid Mike Glennon-led Jacksonville Jaguars. Please don't. So here's the deal in this game. I'm so afraid. I tried to find a way to bet jacksonville because that is the only play in this game you cannot bet the browns in this game like

you just absolutely can i mean i'm sure people will i wouldn't bet the browns in this game but there's nothing about jacksonville that i can even say like oh yeah they'll just do this well and they'll cover this game like i don't know i don't know i mean you're basically again you're blind betting a number which i get it look professionals do that all the time right like sharps they blind bet numbers they have power rankings and they just blindly bet a number i feel like we have more fun in this show than blindly betting numbers um so i i'm not gonna blindly just bet the six i'm not gonna do it six and a half i'm just not gonna do it if it was seven or seven

and a half they don't think differently but i don't want to just blindly bet jacksonville and just sit there on sunday and have to watch this game i mean there was no chance in hell that we were backing mike glennon and a defense you know, 129 yards per game rushing. Cleveland's only allowed 13 points per game the last four weeks. They're going to win this game. They actually need it because of the playoff standings. I think last week for Cleveland was a good like, oh, wow, we avoided the trap game. Like, better not do it here.

It's possible you know they played the Titans and the Ravens in the next two so it's possible that they you know don't show up in this uh and it is Cleveland so I'm fine to pass it but there's no way we are taking Mike Lennon and Jacksonville no chance yeah I mean the thing about Cleveland in this game is it could be a look ahead game but the way they play with their offensive line of rush in the football it's hard to have a bad game. Now, to be fair, they're a defense. They're out Miles Garrett.

They're out Ward this week. They also played three straight games in terrible weather against bad offenses. Like, it wasn't – I can take it back. The Raiders are a good offense, but it just was – they're going out to a better weather, so I don't know if their defense will be that good. But again, the Mike Lennon-Gled Jacksonville,

I can't make a case for that. Yeah, I think this is, yeah, just we've spent enough time talking about it. We're not taking it. Thank God. I was very worried I was going to have to defend us against Mike Lennon. But it's actually a fairly easy task to defend him.

Moving on to a AFC East game. The Dolphins, who broke our heart last week are laying six and a half at the jets interesting number yeah i just i'm not betting on the jets i can't do it well they've covered their last two games i'm just so like i just i again i'll reiterate this point again i i view this podcast as having fun, right? We're entertaining you guys. We're giving you football information. We're giving you gambling nuggets.

But in the end, we're not Vegas Sharps, right? We're not, again, we're not betting on a spreadsheet. People already know that. We were 0-5 last week. Right, exactly. But, like, I'm just saying, like, so if you would like to make money, a lot of money, over the long run, I'm just saying, like, so if you would like to make money, a lot of money, over the long run, betting the Jets,

if you're betting this game, is the way to do so, over the long run. But I don't want to bet the Jets. I don't want to bet the Jaguars. Like, I don't want to bet these shitty-ass teams. I guarantee you we'll come back next week and say we should have bet the Jets, should have bet Jacksonville. You just should have pulled the trigger and done it. But I'm not – I'm sorry. I'm just not going to do it. Dolphins by the way are who I thought they were right we talked about this last week um and I was

that's why I was a little hesitant to put them in there I don't think we had to do we put them in there last week I forget I was a little hesitant to put them in there just because like you know they were winning one certain way right a lot of a lot of plays on defense a lot of plays on special teams two was just and two was just this weekend. And Tua was just, eh, this weekend. And the defense didn't play as good. But this is the Jets. The Jets want to lose. They're not coaching to lose.

Their roster's set up to lose. And I do think this game's going to be close, Matt. But I don't want to put my money on the Jets. That's fair. I would say this. If Fitzpatrick plays, no. Pass. If Tua plays, I don't hate the Jets as a play.

Tua got sacked six times last week. Both the top running backs, Salvin Ahmed and Myles Gaskin, it's a little unclear how that's going to work. Ahmed had a shoulder problem, and Gaskin's coming back off the IR. The Dolphins' offense is not good. uh ahmed had a shoulder problem and gaskin's coming back off the ir the the dolphins offense is not good um last week we liked them or i liked them really because their defense has been so opportunistic and all drew lock does is give the ball away um yeah but he didn't and yeah he did once he did once early on early on it led to time it led to touchdown yeah and you know they ended

up being kind of close at the end when fitzpatrick got in there uh and yeah you know deborah played a good game so i i think two was starting by the way in this game they said yes which we're not we're not doing it because that's just not what we're about i'll put i'll put on the maybe list and just we'll get to it back at the end. Plus six point five jets. OK, sounds good. All right. Next one up. Help us.

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UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. Next one. Fun game. Raiders at Falcons falcons three point home dogs yeah just just bet the over in this game and sit back on your couch and watch this game because like we're not betting the falcons no more we we did it last week we stupidly did it last week we told everyone we weren't betting the falcons no more and we did it again um but the raiders kind of had a heartbreaking loss and i think that could affect the way they play this weekend on the road uh i but i don't want to touch the raiders or the falcons in this game do you have a i do actually i would i would like

to play the raiders here at least put them in contention um this open it pick got bet up to three here i think are the reasons why vegas very rare for a gruden raiders team they're actually good on the road this year three and one against the spread they're usually like much better at home seven and three against the spread this season two and oh is a road favorite interesting again not typical john gruden numbers but the real reason jeff julio jones was limited last week he's had this hamstring problem all season. They lost both games where he was out this year to Chicago and Carolina. And Matt Ryan just looks lost when he's not on the field.

I mean, obviously, he's playing great defense last week with New Orleans. But if he can't keep up with this Raiders offense, the Raiders can put up a lot of points. So I don't think that the Falcons... The Falcons are pretty good against the run. You know, we talked about that with Camara last week, but the Raiders can air this thing out. And if Ryan can't keep up,

I feel like this could be one of those games where you look up and the Falcons are down 20 to three in the third quarter. The Raiders defense though. It's just not very good. Yeah. But who do they have to stop? They have to stop Calvin Ridley and Todd Gurley. Like,

you know, or they have to stop Julio at 60 like i i don't know i i know that i i think a critical listener might argue that you don't like the raiders um for reasons that might have to do with your allegiance to the chiefs they are clearly the better team here like the raiders are a good team in atl Atlanta without Julio is just nothing special. All right. Oh man. I mean, if it's between this and the Jets, we're taking the Raiders.

So I think they at least belong. No, I understand. No, I get it. I get it. We'll go Raiders minus three in the maybes. We only have two for sure so far. So we have,

this is one of those like maybe weeks. We're going to have, in my opinion, we're going to have, we're going to have one more that I'm just those like maybe weeks. We're going to have, in my opinion, we're going to have, we're going to have one more that I'm just going to veto you. We're going to put in here. If you don't like it, I'm just telling you. But let's get to the next game.

Well, I'm curious to see what that is. But I don't, I guess it's probably not this. It's Arizona laying two and a half at New England. No. I like Arizona here, but I don't feel like I would be okay playing them here. The first thing I looked up when I saw this game was the weather, right? A domed, warm weather team going to New England, 51 and sunny, as of recording on Wednesday night.

So that's good for Arizona. Arizona is just a much better football team in general than is the New England Patriots. They're better on offense. They're better on defense. They're better on special teams. The Patriots defense, 31st overall. Excuse me, 32nd last in the NFL.

29th against the pass. And they've always had trouble stopping rushing quarterbacks, running quarterbacks, mobile quarterbacks. They've always had a problem stopping them under Belichick. I think their season ended on Sunday in Houston. Their path to making the playoffs now is so much tougher. Arizona has to keep winning. They have to keep playing hard.

I like Arizona minus two and a half. I do too. This is the number one total offense against the number 30 DVOA pass defense, the number 29 DVO a red zone defense, Cliff Kingsbury five and one against the spread and East coast games. We've sort of tracked that one all season. You know, last week. We talked about how Damien Harris and the, and the past running backs could really feast against the 32nd ranked rush

defense with the Texans. Damien Harris had 43 fricking yards. Thanks to my fantasy running back number two. And they're down Rex Burkhead now. This is a nice number at the two and a half. By the way, the way you beat Murray historically, he's been better this year is by pressuring him. He's better when he has a little bit of time in the pocket. The Patriots' worst pressure rate in the NFL.

I think this is a clear play for the Cardinals here. I'm a little confused why it's so low. Yeah, I mean, it's our first, like, giant public play, too. That's a little disconcerting. I'm okay with putting a couple in there. I mean, it's okay. I don't, you know, this game is, you know, 83% of the money is on Arizona.

But the number is pretty good here. This number has been at three kind of the week. So two and a half, I'll take, I'm good with putting Arizona here. I'll do it. Let's let's do it. Okay.

Well, that's a game. I don't want to watch at all. This one is one. I will like to watch every second of Baltimore at Pittsburgh. Such a fun game. The line we're getting in the super contest is incredible. Three and a half for Pittsburgh. I don't, I, I don't get're getting in the super contest is incredible three and a half for pittsburgh i don't i i don't get this line in the super contest and it does not make sense to me

um i mean this line at some points of today was like five and a half for the steelers yep um so i think they're just trying to take maybe money both ways here right because the three and a half isn't great but whatever um Look, I think sometimes we overthink things when we wager, which we do all the time, especially when you're 2-12-1 the last three weeks. I don't want to overthink this one, Matt. The Steelers are a much better football team than the Baltimore Ravens. Big Ben right now is 8th in EPA.

Lamar Jackson is 26th. The Steelers are better on offense. They're better on defense. They're better at quarterback. Big Ben right now is eighth in EPA. Lamar Jackson is 26th, right? The Steelers are better on offense. They're better on defense. They're better at quarterback. They're healthier. They're more motivated. They're not coming off COVID.

They got slighted again, right? The game moved from Thursday to Sunday. And yes, these games have generally been very close. But look at Baltimore right now. They're down. They're two interior defensive linemen. They're averaging now a yard and a half more allowed per carry on the ground lamar jackson the last eight weeks of the season he'll be six weeks of the season his pass rate has dropped 28 points and two games against the steelers he's he's had seven turnovers like the steelers have a way to play lamar jackson that just works and sometimes we

have one team going in one direction and one team going the other direction that's what we have here the steelers are going up the ravens are going down i know the ravens have to win i get it they have a must win here but what have they done this year for a must win they're up 21 10 last weekend at home against tennessee and blew the game like this to me i get it in this division this exact game is always three you take the underdog and you just deal with it right but like i don't see why pittsburgh is not to play here i mean i'll give you the reasons the reasons are i mean ben roethlisberger said it he said it this week he said when is the last time a baltimore ravens team lost three games in a row like it's very rare they're just a very good team that is coming off of a brutal loss an

overtime loss they've lost but are they but. But are they good right now, though? Like, that's the question. Are they actually good right now? In this moment. On paper, they might be good. But in this moment, are they actually good? That's a good question. I mean, they're depleted at running back.

They're going to have to use Gus Edwards quite a bit. They've lost three out of four. They started the season with this cake schedule that we've been sort of tracking all year. And, you know, this is, again year um and you know this is again i think i think you said this argument perfectly all of the smart gambling things that we've internalized over the years including that pittsburgh is amazing they're the best team in the league against the spread this year right like that's bound for regression in most years because they're supposed to be about 500 no matter how good they are lamar jackson

better as better quarterback as an underdog five and one against spread and four and two outright in his career you know i i think that's the case the road team in this matchup six one and one against the spread in the last eight but i i'm saying all that but i actually i'm with you on pittsburgh like i just they're just so much better like it's it's hard to see how baltimore can win this one i you know the fact that the line was over you know four and a half you know whatever it was earlier today this this kind of feels like vegas sort of is says they kind of feel like they have a read on it to me that they're keeping it this low even with the covid stuff going on there this week. I just think that you're right. We just got to take Pittsburgh.

Yeah, I'm going to put Pittsburgh there. The number is incredible. Like I said, it's like five and a half some places right now. So I'll take the Pittsburgh minus a three and a half. This will be close. I mean, it will. And you mentioned the turnovers. I get it, man.

But like this. I mean, the only way it stays close is if Baltimore pressures Big Ben. Which they, I'm sure, will. And Big Ben has been really good this year getting the ball out quickly. All right, let's go Pittsburgh minus three and a half from now. We'll put it in the middies. Last time they played, Pittsburgh got four turnovers. Like, you have to think that's probably not going to happen again this time.

But again, without all the running backs, you know, that, that could potentially be a big issue. And the offensive line, they're down their left tackle. They didn't go down a little tackle last time. All right. We're taking Baltimore or sorry.

We're taking Pittsburgh with a little, little cognitive dissonance, but we're doing it. Next up is this game is so hard to, to figure out it's San Francisco at the Rams. The Rams are seven point favorites uh what do you think yeah i have no feel for this game other than all the monies on san francisco which is kind of shocking to me um so i i think the rams played really well against tampa but now it's a short

week coming back home across the country against the niners team who's played them pretty well under shanahan i know jimmy g may yeah may or may not play um I I just want to stay away from this game it's a stay away you said it yeah there's no value this is the pro joe game everybody all the all the uh public is on other rams uh and San Francisco's getting all the money I don't I mean the rams everything in my in my heart is saying take take the Rams six, one and one against spread at home. Just, you know,

if you throw out that weird Miami game, they've, they've sort of taken care of business every turn, but something about this, this doesn't feel right. I agree with you. It's bad coming off a big win. Yeah.

Tough one. Okay. Next one, new Orleans and the tasteaysom Hill Saints. Six point road favorites at Denver. This game is the grossest it comes. It really is. There's nothing about this game that all is appetizing to me.

It plays Denver, right? If you had to make it. It's just. Yeah. But again, like I just i just i it's do we really want to have a card with like denver no no we're not taking them the jets and like no i just wanted to talk about this game and one of the things i kind of wanted to ask is this i don't think we even said this on air last week it may have just been in an off-air text or something but we were

talking about how the first time you see like a gimmicky offense it's a little bit hard yeah it works right and that's i think what could happen here is tasem hill turns into a pumpkin a little bit and goes against this tough denver d denver apart from that blowout those blowouts against tampa and kc they've won they've covered every uh home game this year. So I feel like Denver could end up sneaking some sort of cover here or maybe even a win. I will say, though, Sean Payne now is the last two years 6-0

against a spread with a backup quarterback, which is just shocking, right? Because the rest of the team just plays really well. Defensively, they play great against Atlanta. They won because of defense. They didn't win because of Taysom Hill. And Michael Thomas showed up, finally. I think just plays really well. Defensively, they play great against Atlanta. They won because of defense. They didn't win because of Taysom Hill. And Michael Thomas showed up, finally. I think defense plays really well again. And Drew Locke is not very good.

So I would just stay away from this. Yep. The next three are pretty fun. Chiefs at Bucs. Man, the Bucs, what a schedule. The Bucs are three-and-a-half-point home dogs to the Chiefs. Yeah, I don't want to bet this game. And look, the Chiefs are probably the play here,

but their defense was a little suspect last weekend. And I worry that, look, the Rams defense, talking about before the game, the Rams defense is really good. I liked, remember, I liked Tampa to win this game like 24-17. I liked, I didn't think Tampa was going to score a lot of points. The Chiefs defense is not the Rams defense is really good. I liked, remember, I liked Tampa to win this game like 24-17. I liked, I didn't think Tampa was going to score a lot of points. The Chiefs defense is not the Rams defense. Right now they're 32nd in the red zone. Like they allow, they're allowing a ton of points.

Like they're, but again, I'm kind of off Tampa right now. I got to see a little bit more from Tampa. And I just, I, yeah, man, I think Tampa's the play here. If you're betting this game you bet tampa at home got embarrassed on monday night but the chiefs are just hard to bet against they really are because and they look they haven't covered you know a lot of games recently they cover the panthers game they cover the raiders game i get that but they're still so hard to bet against because they're explosive on offense this is hard because you've got you got sort of two angles here for me.

Kansas City, 8-0 against the spread and straight up when favored by 7 or less with Mahomes. Like, when it's close, they win. But the other problem here is, you said it, I mean, is Brady going to... The three games Tampa's lost this year before last week, they've won and covered the next week. They've covered the spread by 18 points uh each as an average um so they've been really dominant after a loss i i don't really have a great feel here i guess i'd lean tampa getting that hook three and a half but it's not what i would want to put in no there's fun you can watch though but not not a game that i want to bet um potentially this next one too i think would fit in that category the bears are suddenly

they're wow the packers are laying nine and a half at home against the bears i i feel like that's really high um i think that it's open at seven and a half. Yeah. The, the play here would be the bears, but we don't know their quarterback right now. And we don't know their motivation right now. We don't know their mental state right now. And so I would,

I would stay off this game by doing the bears are the play here as, as weird as it sounds take both the bears with with no quarterback at the moment but nine and a half is a lot of points in a rivalry game especially with the bears defense is good yeah this is a it's we lay off this uh i did mention i think at some point on this show matt nagy is oh and two after a buy which is just kind of weird because he seems like he's a really smart coach. Yeah. So green Bay is probably going to win this game.

I don't know if they do it by 10 though. I, I just, I'm with you. All right. Last one. Monday night, a game that should have been good.

Seattle laying four and a half at Philly. So look, this line has been anywhere. It's been all over the place it's been six it's been we've actually gotten some really good numbers in super contests i've seen it up upward right it's been like five or six right depends i i had earlier today i did a show and i had it at um just pull it up here i had it at uh seattle favorite by six wow so i see it at five as we're taping this yeah so obviously four and a half is better. I mean, look, here's the thing.

Carson Wentz, folks, is really bad right now. The Eagles offense is really bad right now. I don't think it matters who they play. They're going to be really, really bad no matter who they play. The question becomes, you know, with Seattle going across the country on Monday night, how much does that affect them going across the country? I don't think none at all.

And we know the Seattle defense is not very good. They played better against Arizona. But the play is Seattle here. And I don't think it's even close. I think you just take Seattle. I'm trying to find some reason to not want to take Seattle. But we've talked about Pete Carroll and his success in primetime, 24-5-1 after the win last week on thursday night uh they're really good in these big games and it's like they're

philadelphia is just a terrible team uh i would i mean look carlos hyde coming back i think really helped uh chris carson is i think a game decision still. I haven't checked this in a few hours. Um, but if Chris Carson is in, I think this is a slam dunk. I would still consider it anyway. I, I like, I like Seattle four and a half here. I really do. Um, I think Eagles just aren't very good football team right now. And I'm not sure that playing Seattle is going to help them be any better.

Um, all right, let's look at what we have here. Cause we've been, we've got an interesting slate here. So I think we're we're all in an indie minus three right yeah i'm good with that okay we're all in a buffalo minus five and that's my favorite one we're all in arizona minus two and a half yep then we have one two three four five six other games that we're like we'll see right can we take the jets out should we just eliminate the jets okay okay and you eliminate okay so we know we have then we have five so minnesota minus three and a half are waiting to see if um if phelan's gonna play right if phelan's out we're not that's it out okay the jets The Jets minus six. Not the Jets. The Giants minus six.

Did you just hear that sentence you said out loud? The Giants minus six? The Jets minus six, yeah. Are we even talking about this? Are we overthinking this? Are we overthinking this too much? What do you mean? Are you saying take the Giants?

The Bengals suck! I think they gained, like, what, 20 yards in the whole half without Burrow last week? Something crazy like that. Look, the Bengals are 31st in DVOA. They're 31st on offense and 31st on defense. Yeah, but what are the Giants? The Giants are 24th and 23rd. Oh, no, no, no, I'm sorry. I take it back. Bengals are 27 and 30 on offense and 31st on defense. Yeah, but what are the Giants? The Giants are 24th and 23rd.

Oh, no, no, no. I'm sorry. I take it back. Bengals are 27 and 30, offensive defense. Giants are 24 and 28, but they're fourth in special teams, which is a big boost in a game like this. Yeah, I think that we don't – I think that we – I can't do it.

We've won two games in the last three weeks, and now we're going to lay six points with daniel jones as a road favorite good night okay daniel giants are done done oh that's a relief i feel better i don't even care what we do as long as we don't do the jets for giants um vegas minus three you like vegas minus three right do pitt? Pittsburgh minus three and a half Seattle minus four and a half so we have to pick between we need two

of these four essentially. Minnesota which we can decide later if we want to move Minnesota so Minnesota is not part of this. We need two of three Vegas, Pittsburgh Seattle. I mean you've loved Pittsburgh this whole time. I think we should stick we should put that in. Okay.

Pittsburgh. So Vegas or Seattle? Well, I think I was a little more keen on Vegas than you. And I think we both kind of liked Seattle. Did we? Yeah, we eliminated the Browns, right? The Browns. I had them written down.

Yes. Yes. No, they, yes. No, they're eliminated. Here's the thing about doing this on Wednesday. It's like, sometimes I just don't want, I can't decide on Wednesday. Like, there's so much COVID news out.

Like, the Browns have a COVID case right now. Everyone just, things change. Like, for example, the Raiders have a couple guys out on defense last week that might play this week. Like, I want to see if those guys are going to play before I bet on the Raiders. And these lines aren't going to move. I can super-contest lines. So I think for now we put Pittsburgh in and just see how the week goes,

and you come back to my Twitter, at Jeff Schwartz, and we decide whether or not we've changed something. I think that's the way to do it because i i yeah again um and and since we're sucking so much i want to throw a couple things out there for other people just to have some fun with other bets because again like i do better at other things than just picking sides sometimes like totals and whatnot i know some fun teasers to have this weekend can i can i bring a couple teasers up? Please. Teaser quarter. Okay. So you could tease down New Orleans, Seattle, Buffalo, and there's one more team you could tease, and Giants. All basically down to pick-ems.

That feels like a good bet. Yeah, I don't mind that. It feels like a good bet, folks. That feels like a good bet. And that's my one teaser that i like this weekend um you look at some totals man i don't i don't like i mean people are going crazy betting the over and like in like buffalo and the charger game but there's no unders i like this week folks not really i'm i love that we are fitting in a little teaser section because you and I do a lot more exotic stuff usually.

Next week, I'll come more prepared for that. This is a good idea. That's a four-team tease. It's going to be a lot of fun, guys. All right, guys. Look, we can't do any worse. Can't do any worse. Can't do any worse.

So Indy, Buffalo, Arizona, Pitt, Seattle, with a chance to put Vegas or Minnesota in there depending on COVID news, injury news. Come back to my Twitter, at Jeff Schwartz. We post everything on Sunday morning or Saturday night depending on when I get to it with our plays for the week. So thank you guys. Appreciate it.

Have a great Thanksgiving. Enjoy the time with your family and friends. Enjoy the football this weekend. It's wall-to-wall football. Have a great one. Talk to you guys on Tuesday.