Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 13

Episode Date: December 3, 2020

Coming off a winning week Geoff and Matt are back; discussing every game around the league to find their favorite 5 SuperContest lines. Belichick vs Lynn, the Raiders look to bounce back against the Jets and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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which feels odd to say because week 12 just ended. We had a football game in the middle of Wednesday, but we're 3-2 from last week. I'll take it. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart on the Eve. Matt, we're 3-2, buddy. We're back.

We are back. We are back. 3-2. That's awesome, man. Hey, we'll take it. Wherever we can get it. Half point here, half point there. Let's fly.

And we got a little bit lucky, which we didn't. We haven't had breaks, right? We got Seattle. How fucking time? And Pittsburgh had a good number. Both got backdoor covered on the closing line. But we did not have that happen to us. I'll take a three and two week.

I will take it. I will take it. I will take it. I will take it. I'll take a three and two week. I will take it. I will take it. I will take it.

I'll take it. And look, heading to week 13, man, there are some stinky fishy lines, but we're going to take some of them. I have some sharper plays. I know you have some as well. Let's start us off with the first game on the list. Let's do it, Jeff. Well, you talk about stinky games. Let's start with a real stinky game.

Mike Glennon and the Jacksonville Jaguars head to Minnesota. The Vikings are laying 10. No, I'm not on the Vikings in this game. I think Dalvin Cook, though, has a giant game. If you're looking for some prop betting or some sort of prize picks, right? Daily Fantasy. Go bet Dalvin Cook over.

I think Dalvin Cook has a huge game against this really, really poor Jacksonville defense. It's going to be bad. Jacksonville's defense, by the way, 30th in points allowed, 29th in rush yards allowed,

last in sacks. I mean, the Vikings should wipe the floor with them, but we're not putting our hard-earned money on this game. No, we're not. Although, I will say that the Jags have been – they've sort of been covering all the – like every week we've wanted to go against them and they've covered. And I don't think they're going to keep doing it,

but I also am not sure if Minnesota is going to be able to sneak this out you mentioned cook this is just something to be aware of uh for for fantasy players for betters he's on pace for the kind of usage that mcafree had last season and mcafree you know he's suffering the consequences of that this year but he's on pace for i think over 400 touches um and he's not the same mcafree is a freak i mean that guy is just like he's he's so dominant he can sort of withhold or withstand that that punishment i don't know if cook can and kubiak saying that he's banged up that's a direct quote has me a little worried i don't think that affects this game but uh yeah

i think feeling back i think so too but i'm not we're not doing this right now no we're we're so not neither side jacksonville's the play if you're doing it i guess uh okay cleveland's at tennessee in a such a strange line a strange game feels like these two teams have to have played each other by now but it's a five and a half point line for the Titans. The line sucks, but the Titans are 1,000% the play here. By far, it's not even close.

I think you play them up to seven. We've got five and a half, but the line has been kind of started at three, went to six. Now we've got five and a half, so there's some Browns buyback here as well. Look, we talk about DVOA a lot, right? And the efficiency numbers that Football All-Stars puts out there. Football All-Stars has Cleveland Browns buyback here as well. Look, we talk about DVOA a lot, right? And the efficiency numbers

that Football All-Stars puts out there. Football All-Stars has Cleveland Browns as the worst 8-3 team they've ever measured. They have a negative 21-point differential, which is the worst by any 8-3 team or better in their first 11 games in NFL history and the breadth of the 29th easiest schedule right now. So they're just sneaking by these games.

They snuck by Jacksonville. And remember, they've played some okay quarterbacks. Remember recently Carr and Watson? But those games were in bad weather in Cleveland, right? Snow, rain, wind. Then they go to Tennessee and they face a Titans team that is getting hot, just like they did last year at the exact right time, right? Derrick Henry is steamrolling teams. The Browns are 20th in rushing DVOA.

They have a lot of first down via the rush, 33% of the time, which is 21st. I know Miles Garrett is back, but this is the best team the Browns have faced in a long time, in good weather. The Titans are feeling good. I like the Titans here minus five and a half I want to put them in wow me too Jeff I actually was sure we were going to get this at six or more and we'd have a real discussion about it but as we speak this one is at six it will

definitely go to six and a half you mentioned seven it will probably be there by game time uh the Browns last week were giving up more than five, a carry to James Robinson. And they're going against Derek Henry this week. And look, the Titans, you, I agree with everything you said, but the Titans are starting to look like the Titans,

right? Like this is the time of year where it gets a little harder to tackle AJ Brown and Derek Henry. And Cleveland's defense has given up more points on the road than any other team in the NFL this year. I really like Tennessee in this spot. They're in. So, all right.

We got one already. Let's go. One down. Wow. Everything's coming up. Jeff and Matt. Next up, we've got Detroit at Chicago. Finally, the Matt Patricia cloud has been lifted.

We'll see him as like a quality control coach in the SEC next year. The Bears are three-point favorites. All right. This line opened, Matt, at the Bears favored by six. It's now down to favored by three. So a ton of public money being thrown in the Lions' direction. We talked earlier this year when Bill O'Brien got fired that there has not historically been a dead cat bounce right the bounce when this year actually it's done pretty well I think both teams have covered uh I am not

betting on the Lions getting three points I think it's the right play actually uh because the Bears offense is so bad the Lions defense is not good either, right? It just feels like a game where we're just staying away because both teams, we don't know what we're getting from them. Yeah, that's right. Historically, the shorthand here is it's about a 500 record when a bad coach gets fired for the next week when it's both the straight up and the cover. This is a fishy line.

There's all this. There's so much money on the lions but like it hasn't budged it's staying at that three which kind of makes me think that vegas knows something here so i'm i agree i'm i'm staying away if however if for what if if there something happens because we tape this on on wednesday night so much happens during the week if akim nicks is out and Galladay and Swift are in, this line will move. And I will potentially be intrigued by the Lions. No, that's fair. That definitely is fair. Because that's, yeah, if those guys are back and Hicks is out, we saw last weekend that Hicks is such a big part of that run defense.

Totally. Him and, I'm sure, get to defarce buckner later but like those two guys so you can really tell a defense can fall apart if they're not there oh boy i i have a feeling this is not going to be a pretty conversation that we're about to have here this is the ugliest game of all time it is the las vegas raiders laying eight and a half points at the jets yeah terrible terrible number um terrible number i think well i actually the raiders are the play here um i know i text you earlier this week about the jets as being just kind of like a joke like home favorite here the jets dude the jets are awful right they lose games by an average of 15

points a game think about what the Raiders right now, right? So the Raiders got embarrassed against Atlanta last weekend. 43-6. They're not a bad football team, right? They're a playoff caliber football team. Their offense is good. Their defense is getting guys back. They're getting injuries on the offensive line.

They're getting guys back. They're kind of getting healthy again now. Going back on the road, which is a problem. We've seen the West Coast teams very recently not win those 10 a.m. kickoffs on the East Coast, right? The 1 p.m. Eastern games. But dude, the Raiders are 100% to play here. I know it's a public play.

I get that. But the Raiders need to win this game for their own psyche by three touchdowns. They need to do it. And what about the Jets makes you feel that all this game will be close other than just the old school bet the home dog and just just hold our nose and do it i think the raiders blow them out i think if you're listening to this thursday morning you need to see what your number is for the raiders and bet them because they're seven and a half point favorites right now and there's like a

little bit of an edge on the money for the jets i have this there's this weird sentiment i feel that people think this is the jets week like everybody thinks they're gonna go 1 and 15 or better and everybody saw them play you know the raiders lay a stink bomb in atlanta last week i thought we might get this at seven because the Sharps are going to, we're thinking about pushing this the other way. It went to eight and a half. Well, yeah, they know that everyone's hammering the Raiders this weekend. That's why we didn't get seven and a half.

It's a surprising place for this to end. I think they know though that this line might get to like 10 before kickoff or nine and a half. Like the money will come in so hard on Oakland, Oakland is Vegas as the week goes on that they're setting themselves up for a number get to like 10 before kickoff or nine and a half. Like the money will come in so hard on Oakland, Oakland is Vegas as a week goes on that they're setting themselves up for a number. That's sort of not where they're giving too much as either side. I still think eight and a half though.

You take the Raiders. Yeah. It's it's a, maybe I, this is a great stat, Jeff. Oh, and 11 teams like the jets one in six since 2000,

the only team to lose to an own 11 team like the jets one in six since 2000, the only team to lose to an own 11 team, the jets. Like you gotta love that. I wanted to make a case for the jets. I really did. Me too, man. They're 32nd and deep.

Like it's just, they're terrible. They're so bad. And Oakland, and I think the emotionally Oakland needs this game really badly. Yeah. Like they're gonna run the football they're gonna play good defense car's gonna do really well um and i i

just i know it's a it's not the traditional bet you want to make um the one thing that concerns me though is that car has not been good in cold weather and that's my concern but running the football does travel in cold weather so yeah um i like i like oakland here it could be a nice right spot for them um yeah i have one one more little couple jets nuggets most games this year where they put up fewer than 10 points the most games this year of any team under 20 points and they've allowed 30 plus to every single non-divisional team they've played this year just like a trifecta of just terribleness i mean they're like they're really woeful so all right we're gonna put the raiders in as a maybe enough piling on on the jets uh the next one is a rematch of a game two weeks ago saints falcons uh saints are

laying the three in atlanta all right so i said we're not gonna do it anymore but the falcons are the falcons are a team right here nothing to do with anymore, but the Falcons are the team right here. Nothing to do with last weekend, by the way. Nothing to do with last weekend. I'll explain the reason why. They played this offense with Taysom Hill two weeks ago, right? And we'll start on that side of the ball. The Falcons defense is actually not playing that bad right now. Under Raheem Morris, they're only allowing 20 points per game.

They were allowing 32 the first five weeks. Their defense is sixth in expected points added epa since raheem morris took took a hold they're playing really good on defense guys i think we're ignoring that because they're the falcons and we kind of rid them off now they get yeah now they get tasem hill for the second time in three weeks they've seen the offense now they know what the offense is there's no surprise right there's no surprise of what the saints offense is they're going to run, right? There's no surprise of what the Saints offense is. They're going to run the football. That's what they want to do.

The question becomes, on the other side of the ball, can the Falcons not do what they did last time, which is give up eight sacks, hit Matt Ryan 17 times. But when you dig in the numbers, Pro Football Focus does a good job of grading sacks and pressures based off of who they're actually at, not just overall team stats. So Matt Wright had five of the eight sacks in that game attributed to him.

He didn't throw the ball. He didn't pull the trigger, all this stuff. So I think this weekend's game, offensively for the Falcons, they got embarrassed in that Saints game. They're just going to be much better this weekend. The thing that worries me, though, is they haven't converted very well in the red zone recently. The Saints have a very bad red zone defense. The Saints defense is second to last in the NFL in the red zone.

So I think this game is very close. I think the Falcons might pull this off in the end. I like the second time in three weeks factor here. I've seen the Taysom Hill offense, and Atlanta can't play any worse than offense in this game. Yeah, it's interesting. I'm on the Saints. Let me see how this argument stacks up. So I agree with pretty much everything you said.

I think we're overlooking actually the Saints defense who have given up one touchdown in the last 16 quarters. They have been unbelievable. The best unit, probably the best defensive unit, probably in the last 16 quarters they have been unbelievable the best unit probably the best defensive unit probably in the nfl certainly over the last couple weeks um yeah last week i i felt like i was every time i looked at the score of the falcons raiders game that i was hallucinating because it seemed like the falcons weren't even playing well and they won by 40 they only had 300 yards on offense no No, and I don't think...

This leads to a few potential red flags for me. Number one, they're coming off of a game where they just had a blowout, but didn't really play well, which reinforces a kind of bad message. The Saints are scorching hot. Taysom Hill hasn't been great, but their defense has been. Julio Jones and Todd Gurley are both back at practice, but they're not going to be 100% against a very tough defense. I think the Saints are just clearly the better team here.

They also still haven't lost in the last two years without Drew Brees, which is just kind of odd. Yeah. 7-0. So, look, I think – and the last game was not close between these two teams. I know it was two weeks ago. Yeah, yeah. But I think the Saints –

It was close for, what, three quarters? It became a blow at the end. They gave up three field goals, right? It was like 20-9 or something. And Koo, by the way, is a little banged up, which he's been unbelievable this year. A couple of things to note. I think the under is in play here too, which we're not taking that. But there is reverse line movement to the Falcons, by the way.

So that makes you feel any better. It's now two and a half in some places. Yep. So I just think Atlanta in this spot. Again, it's not really off anything of last week. It's more just, I think generally speaking, they're playing better. They are. I mean, you're playing better. They are. I mean,

you're, you're on the right side here. I just think, uh, I just, I just like taking the saints here. I know that the sharps are on, are on the Falcons.

Uh, well, we'll put it as it, we'll put it as a, maybe then. Yeah. I'm cool with that. Okay.

Next up. Let's do it. Uh, let's see if we even discuss it. The bangles 11 and a half point road dogs at the Dolphins. The play's the Dolphins, right? Is it? Is it?

As the biggest Dolphins backer and Fitzpatrick backer in the entire world, I'm a little skeptical of this. Okay. What about the Bengals offense thinks they can score even? Their team total by was like 14.5, which is wild to me. What about that offense makes you think they're going to score against Miami's defense? Like what,

like no one scores against Miami's defense. And now the Bengals with their bum offensive line and their third string quarterback are going to go into Miami and just put a bunch of points. The issue is can the dolphin score enough points in this game to cover the 11 and a half. I just don't see any way that the Bengals keep this game close unless they have just a miracle on offense. Like, the Dolphins are going to bring so much pressure.

They're going to force turnovers in this game. They're going to make life hell for Allen. Yeah. Brandon Allen. Allen. Allen Brandon. Who even knows? I mean, I just – I know it's a big number dude

it's it's and and we don't know if two are fits is playing at this moment so maybe we can come back to this later but i mean i i i think this is where with the overthinking this one the bangles dude i have no chance in this game to keep it close yeah well if it's two i'm out no chance if it's fitzpatrick i mean you know me i'll i'll bet ryan fitzpatrick even with even with two of like you can't see like a 21-7 win 24-7 win i could see a 14-0 win before i could see that to be honest i mean i think with with uh fitzpatrick they could light them up but um the dolphins so so we'll put miami in the in a maybe if quarterback situation changes.

Yeah, I guess. I mean, Dolphins 6-0 against the spread in their last six at home against teams with losing records. And Cincinnati last week got a kickoff touchdown. That's probably not going to repeat this week. Yeah, I just don't think they can score, dude. Yeah, I mean, you convinced me. I mean, it doesn't take a lot of convincing for me to bet the Dolphins.

I'm obsessed with betting them. I know you are. All right, let's go to the next one then. That's a maybe. Yeah. Okay, next one. AFC South battle Colts three and a half point favorites at the Texans. Dude, this one's tough, man.

Damn this hook. I don't like the hook. Also, because of recording on Wednesday, this is the problem we've had this year. I don't know the status of the Colts' best defensive players who are on the COVID list right now, right? Like DeForest, we don't know if Buckner's playing or Autry or anyone else. Ryan Kelly, their center. I can't give you a bet to make on this game until we know who's playing.

I think if all those guys are playing, the Colts are the play here. But Houston's playing a little bit better recently, right? They're kind of feeling things a little bit. They're playing a little better. They got a little more rest, obviously, off the Thanksgiving game. But without knowing if the Colts players are playing, I can't tell you what to do here. What do you think, Matt? I think, yes, yes of course with all those

caveats but if i had to sort of like for the listeners sake make a projection here i am very comfortable with this taking the colts at this number um a couple of reasons and you'll probably laugh at at this one but the colts is the colts losses this season have all been to teams that are rush dominant Jacksonville which is like kind of funny but James Robinson is good and that's their offense yeah Cleveland's Baltimore Tennessee and you know they probably should have lost to Green Bay but they they tend to give up you know they tend to get burned by those teams that can kind of control the clock interesting and uh you know it doesn't turn into aout, but they just have to sort of catch up.

I think the big problem here that people are forgetting about is Will Fuller being gone. Will Fuller this season, eight touchdowns, 879 yards, and he's been healthy this whole season. So what is I mean, Deshaun Watson's been great. Obviously, we talked about that last week. But what is this offense without potentially David Johnson and Will Fuller? I mean, we're talking about Brandon Cooks and Duke Johnson and Daniel Fels. Like, that's a tough ask against an Indianapolis defense that's coming off of a game where they got gashed. So I'm pretty into the Colts here. You know what? Look, I'm okay with putting them in here for now.

And because I think if they get any of those guys back, it's a slam dunk for them. Yeah. It's a must win game. It's a must win game. Yes. The problem. The problem is that last week, everybody was on these,

these road favorites that were getting 90% of the money or more. And that's the Colts here. And they're still getting that at three and a half. So it's a little concerning, but I'm, I'm still in yeah i'm i'm good i'm good for it we we don't have any other ones like that yet so raiders aren't even raiders are not getting all the money either right now so um all right i'm good with that okay let's put them in the next round i feel like we like a lot this is a good sign well the rest of the games i only like one of like the last seven so um we'll see how this goes okay interesting um let's see where are we

where are we rams cardinals rams at cardinals uh oh man this one's tough cardinals are three point favorites this is this is a teaser leg by the way for arizona to put them at plus nine like this is one thousand percent if you're if you're teasing games together, you put the Cardinals together, you put the Dolphins, and I did the Seahawks. We'll get to the Seahawks in a second, in a teaser. I like that better than, I think, a side here, because the Cardinals' offense just kind of hasn't really been that efficient the last four weeks of the season.

And maybe it's Murray's shoulder. I mean, they look bad against New England. Like, they didn't run the football well enough. And maybe it's Murray's shoulder. I mean, they look bad against New England. They didn't run the football well enough. They didn't use Murray well enough. Kingsbury is not a good coach at the end of games. I think if people cared more about the Cardinals, we talk about how bad he is at the end of games. He makes aggressive decisions and doesn't make aggressive decisions.

They're kind of a mess. And I like this Cardinals team, but the Ramsams are are coming off an embarrassing loss um you know i i'm not i don't want to really take a side in this game but i think i would probably take the rams right now so i actually misread this at the beginning the rams are three-point road favorites at the Cardinals. Right. As I was sort of looking at this the first time, the Cardinals, I think people are just off the Cardinals because they've gone 0-4 against the spread in their last four,

and they were the Dolphins of a few weeks ago where everyone just loved to bet them. I think I'm on the Cardinals here because I think they're about even. I'm on the Cardinals here because I think they're about even. The issue of Jalen Ramsey potentially being a little bit banged up, like this is the game. This is why they pay him all that money. It's to shadow DeAndre Hopkins in a game they need.

And if he's even a little bit banged up, DeAndre Hopkins is going to eat. Yeah, but is he though? Because they haven't, the offenserizona just hasn't been as good the last month of season i feel like they're getting figured out yeah i i think this shoulder thing with murray is flying under the radar a bit um he just hasn't been quite as good the last couple weeks this there's too many things like kind of in flux here you know the rams just lost to the 49ers man i i'm not i'm not

the niners have their kind of have their number though i think that's a kind of maybe a a red spot for the rams so yeah um yeah i just the cardinals i i can't i just i think we need to stay away from this game yeah we're on different on different sides. Let's pass it. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool. But with my wireless,

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Results vary. Non-endorsement. Okay, next one. The New York Giants. The NFC East leading New York Giants are plus 10 at the Seahawks. And a lot of money on the Seahawks. Colt McCoy going across the... This is a teaser play for me.

It's not... Everyone's on Seattle, and I'm not going to be a public taker of Seattle. And this spot has been just brutal last month of the season. Seattle offensively is really concerning lately they just have not been the let russ cook offense whether it's just lack of trying defenses figuring out a little bit off it's a line beat up a little bit which really hasn't been their concern but they just haven't looked as crisp lately on offense that they have to start the season it's getting a little colder right they scored what 28 against um against uh seattle and what was it 23 in an ugly game against the eagles last weekend um the giants defense is not half bad

they they're scrappy group um i i just 10 points i feel like an awful lot man yeah i think that yeah i agree um we might kick ourselves by getting the chance to feed uh colt mccoy on the road but yeah but 10 i it's not the same it's not the same seattle obviously this year um and seattle just needs to they just need to win like sometimes you look at these late season games it's's a slog. They just got to win. They might win by seven and it could feel like a blowout the whole game. So I agree. We got to pass it. But there are some great teaser candidates. Maybe we could try to build one at the end of the show.

Okay, next is another big line. It's what the hell is going on with the Philadelphia Eagles are going to Green Bay. Green Bay is eight and a half point favorites. Oh, boy. We're not going to, right? No, we're not. I can't do it. I mean, I can't keep betting these giant public home favorites.

Yeah. Well, a play would be Philly, I can't keep betting these giant public home favorites. Yeah. Well, a play would be Philly, I think. And F that. I mean, I think this is another teaser thing, right? You take Green Bay down to two and a half. You take Seattle down to three. You take Arizona to nine, plus nine. You take the Dolphins to five and a half.

Yeah, that's a great idea. Green Bay, yeah. um the dolphins to five and a half yeah that's a great idea um green yeah yeah i this feels like one of those games where the eagles just pull it out of their ass like i don't know why they just seem to like whenever you just completely write them off they show up uh green bay has gotten exposed on defense a few times but i think green bay could win this game by 30 also. So, you know, that's a pass. That's my concern. Yeah. So we're off of this. We're off of it.

They're dead like the Eagles' offenses. I'd cover this on Tuesday's episode. But they're just – and the Packers have kind of feasted this year on bad teams. Yes. So I think they'll probably be Packers here. We'll stay away because i'm this this next game is like my favorite i cannot believe this line i am in i'm i'm shocked at this line okay let's talk about it uh the next one is the new england patriots

at the chargers and it is just a pick guys bill belichick against Anthony Lynn. Bingo. How difficult is this? It's the Patriots the entire way. It's 1,000% the way. Here's some stats. You ready? I'm going to look at my paper and read this off to you. Lay it on me. Chargers are 15-25 in games decided by 10 points or fewer since Lynn took over.

The Chargers are 13-22 in one-score games under Lynn. They're 4-16 in their last 20 in one-score games. If you take out the 2018 season, which seems like a little bit of an outlier for Lynn, Chargers are 7-21 in one-score games. And this season, the Chargers became the first team in NFL history to blow four consecutive 16-point leads. Like, guys, this is a no-brainer to me. Here's a couple more reasons i like this game um chargers special teams 32nd in the nfl okay new england fourth in the nfl

a couple more things let me keep going please anthony lynn today told his team we're probably out of the playoffs great motivation what What? Yeah, you probably are, but guess what? You're not. You're not out yet, and your players shouldn't know. Are you conceding the season already? Like, what are you doing? Like, what measures that's in your team? Bill Belichick is not saying that.

He's saying, guys, look, we're 5-6. Let's get another victory. And are Patriots good right now? Not really. No. They should have won that game. Arizona had a bad end of the first half, bad end of the second half. But they won.

And now I just get a Patriots team that feels good about a win going across the country. They're staying out there for a week because they're playing the Niners next or the Rams next. I think they're playing the Rams next. It's Bill Belichick against Anthony Lynn. Give me the Patriots. Yep. A few other things just to sort of pile on. The Chargers haven't covered since October when they covered by beating Jacksonville by 10 when they were favored by 8. They haven't covered in all of these amazing Justin Herbert games.

They still haven't covered. That's insane. And reminder, the teams they've beaten this season, Jacksonville, Jets, Cincinnati in week one. I was looking back today, Jeff, at this old segment I used to do on a show called Garbage Time, where I used to cut these promos as like the promo announcer for these Thursday night football games. And this is back in 2016. And it was a Chargers game. And the joke was, what wacky way are the Chargers going to blow the game this week? This is what they do.

They blow games. So I am very happy to take New England's here. If this is close at all, we can count on the Chargers to blow it. Exactly. It's a pick-em. So I love, love, love New England here. Let's do it. Lock it in.

Okay. Well, I'm glad that was the one you really liked because i was nervous that it was this one it's the broncos no oh no the drew lock and his mom are fired up about this game they are 14 point underdogs at the chiefs i appreciate she's going to bat for her son i have kids i get it but you can't you can't do that like i look they weren't wearing their masks like whatever reason there is the nfl had mandated wearing their masks and they for whatever time whatever time they didn't do in the facility they didn't do it like yeah the nfl main example yeah you're right she's right about that but nonetheless um look i i it's too big of a line, too much money on the Chiefs. Just stay the F away.

Yep, that's right. Yep, I have nothing to add to that. You're not getting any value taking the Chiefs at this stage, but you're not taking Denver. Man, what a strange schedule the next week, and we might get a few more of these. We have two Monday night games. We have a Tuesday night game.

The Cowboys-Ravens. Oh, Tuesday night. Tuesday night. You're right. I'm sorry. Yeah. So we have two Mondays and a Tuesday. I don't mind, man. I enjoyed the 340 kickoff today.

It was right between social studies and recess. We got a football game. Next up. All right. So the first Monday night game is the early one. It is the, man, we did not get a good line here. The football team at the Steelers. This was a 10, a few minutes ago. Now it's for the super contest. The Steelers are favored by seven and a half.

Yeah. Pittsburgh routinely plays down to opponents like they did tonight, which is atrocious. It was, they played atrocious, but they were, look, without a 70 yard free touchdown, they is atrocious. It was, they played atrocious, but they were, look, without a 70 yard free touchdown, they cover that game anyways. Right. So I think that the play is nobody here. It's not the Steelers who I do not trust in a short week now to play down to an opponent. Again, they're going to play down to Washington, Washington offensive. He's going to struggle against the Steelers defense, but the Washington, I just, I, I'm not happening.

This is another, if you're listening to thisursday and you're still seeing nine or ten i would absolutely pound washington yes um if if you can believe this jeff every game alex smith has started washington's covered this year it is just what he does he covers um and this is i i mean i didn't look this up but i'm gonna guess that pittsburgh is playing the first wednesday 3 40 to monday 5 p.m swing in the history of the nfl yes reminder that washington actually played on thanksgiving last so they have 11 days rest coming in here and they just came off of a statement win and this is going to be an ugly defensive game ben roethlisberger today against baltimore through 50 times if he does that against washington it will not go well just like it didn't go well

today no i think washington keeps this one close we did not get the best of the number here so i think we should pass it but if you can get 10 or 9 or whatever do it take the take the washington boys i'm i'm with you I agree. That's a shame. When I was so fired up to make the case for this, but then it came down to seven and a half. I think, I think at 10, I think at 10,

I would have been with you. 10 for sure. 10 is like a no brainer. That's why they dropped the line. Agreed. Okay. Next one is interesting game. Buffalo two and a half point road favorites at San Francisco.

Who's playing in arizona so that's gonna be strange i have no feel for this game whatsoever i i i the niners obviously come off that win against the rams but they always play the rams really well but they're a feisty team with with nick mullins right but they have so many guys hurt and buffalo feels like the obvious pick here in the obvious picks in this spot I don't know have been have been really good I just oh man I have zero feel for this game um I wish I'd give you more on it I tried to find some sort of angle that I really like but the bills are playing well um but I just what do you think Matt I don't know I feel this, out of all the games we have, this is like a game I just, I don't feel great about.

Yeah, I actually like San Francisco here. Obviously, like, it's sort of weird to say, like, well, they're a short home favorite, or short home dog, because they're not really home. But what, honestly, this is a few things. But two and a half sucks. Two and a half sucks, though. Yeah, but it actually, this is at one a two and a half suck. Two and a half sucks though. Yeah. But it actually, this is at one or one and a half now. So we actually are getting a pretty good number if we're into San Francisco. Um, look, this is Buffalo, uh, coming off of a kind of close game

last week that I did really like. Um, I think Buffalo is like a little bit overinflated and San Francisco is a little bit undervalued. San Francisco, their offensive line has played a lot better, which I feel like is flying under the radar because they were a mess earlier and they still have some pretty bad injuries there. Their defensive line is playing better. Their secondary is a little healthier.

The key to this team for San Francisco, it's two guys. It's Mostert and it's samuel and they're both back and they came back last week and they beat the rams and neither ends and mostert didn't even play that well but samuel had like 130 yards on of total offense and if you know you see with him and if kittle were to come back eventually why they're so good on offense like they're very creative i think they have i think kyle shanahan is like this is one of those uh fantastic yeah it's just one of those like heroic showings this year where he's just making the most out of what he's got and yeah

this is a situation right this is buffalo who has traditionally not been good on monday nights going across the country off of a win and the 49ers are probably just as good as them so I would be okay taking the two and a half two and a half two and a half over three though it's not great but it's one and a half in real life so yeah um you know the one thing about the Niners too is is defensively they're playing better when guys have come back now. They're 9th in DVOA on defense. They're good, man. They're playing good football. All right, I'll put it down as a maybe. I'm okay with that.

I'm worried about all their injuries, though. So, again, it's Wednesday. It kind of sucks. We have a bunch of injury games that we don't know about what's going to happen yet. Yeah, that's true. They played such a tough schedule, by the way, the 49ers. I think last game was a complete stay away yeah i got no feel here because i mean it's it's crazy that they had to hang this line already it's dallas at the ravens the ravens are nine and a half point home

favorites which must mean they think lamar is coming back because if he is not coming back then i think you have to take Dallas. You can't touch this game because you don't know the injury, not the injury, the COVID status of any of the players. Like this is just a complete stay away. You just can't do it. Yeah. Yeah.

I wish I could give you more, but unless I know the Ravens players, how could I tell you what to do? I don't know who's playing that game. I think we've seen across the NFL this year, a few of these contracts that are just looking so terrible. I don't think there's one that looks worse than the Ezekiel Elliott contract. And I know you'll take your victory

laugh about running backs, but there, I, there was something off with that dude. And it might, the genie might be out of the bottle. Like he, he just might be washed already. Right. Which again, don't, don't pay running backs. We're not gonna have that discussion today, but, but just Jared golf's another, I mean, there are just a few pay running backs. We're not going to have that discussion today, but just... Jared Goff's another. I mean, there are just a few of these contracts where you're just like... Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz, yep.

But you're kind of stuck, though. You have to pay these guys. Like, you can't really go back in the draft and get someone else. That's the problem. Jalen Smith on Dallas. Like, it's there. Oh, geez. It's there in hell.

Everyone, they paid him instead of Dak. It's just wild to me. All right, we actually only have seven this week. Normally, we have like 12 we've got to go through. So we have Tennessee minus the 5.5. That's a lock. That's it. Lock.

Vegas minus 8.5. Okay. Atlanta plus 3. Indy minus 3.5. New England pick them as in. Yep. Miami minus 11.5. SF plus 2.5. i think the vegas one is so we had we had those five vegas atlanta indy miami san francisco for um

for the three spots left and we could leave one open to see like if the colts and niners and in the dolphins like their injury situation how how that, you know, works itself out with COVID and guys playing. I feel like we can't bet on the Dolphins or the Colts truly until we know who's playing and who's not. I'm, I'm pretty, yeah, we can't do that with the Colts,

but it's going to be pretty hard to shake me off of that one. So I feel like for the purposes of the show, we can maybe put that in. We'll put Indy in there. Knowing that, you know, to pull back the curtain, like wey in there knowing that you know to pull back the curtain like we obviously change these when uh yeah the broncos don't get a quarterback and

we can take the saints like two days after we record that happened last week uh it's i mean it's it's that's fair game um i i'm actually so the the i'm on new orleans instead of atlanta so if you're passionate about it, I'll go with you. It's your show and you're nice to have me on. We made a rule about not betting on Atlanta, right? Yeah. I feel great seeing that one go away. Okay.

We'll take it away. So we have now Vegas, Miami, and San Francisco. Who do you feel better about big favorite? Vegas against the Jets or Dolphins at home against the Bengals? Dolphins. I feel great about the Dolphins. You talked me into them and you know how quick I'll turn into if it's magic. Let's fly.

So now we have the Raiders on the road minus eight and a half against the worst team in the NFL who is losing every game by 15 and a half points. Getting a shit number. In a revenge spot. I mean, not a shit number in in a in a revenge spot i mean a revenge spot in like a bounce back spot for the raiders or the niners at home against the bills i did the niners man scares the shit out of me yeah and they're not even at home and they're only it's like under a few it's like they have to basically win this game for us to cover yep uh i mean i'll take the Raiders. I'll do it.

If something happens, I mean, there's a good chance we'll be taking Dallas if Lamar Jackson isn't coming back. We got five favorites, basically. Oh, boy. Yeah. Well, last week, these all lost. So this week, maybe they start to come back. Titans, Vegas, Dolphins, Colts, Patriots.

Boom. And, of course, subject to change as the week goes on. Because it's Wednesday, guys. As always. Waking Wets on Wednesday is hard to do. So, things change. We're going to change it every now and then. All right, guys.

Thank you for tuning in. Really appreciate it. We will talk to you guys on Tuesday at Jeff Schwartz. Please rate, review, subscribe. I appreciate when you guys go rate, review, and subscribe whenever we get this podcast on. All right, guys. Have a great weekend.

Enjoy the football. Talk to you guys Tuesday.