Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 14

Episode Date: December 10, 2020

Geoff and Matt are back once again to discuss the entire slate of week 14 games to find their 5 favorite SuperContest lines. Tom Brady is coming back off a bye, Pittsburgh is an underdog, and they finally found a Thursday night game they like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Welcome to week 14 of the NFL Slate. I am Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. We will go over every game this week. We'll go over the gambling lines ins and outs. We'll even throw some props your way. We had two straight winning weeks. We're up to 28, 34, and 3.

Oh, Matt, we got over our bad stench of a couple weekends ago. How you doing, buddy? I'm doing good, man. I'm very happy that we went 3-2. Get back in the plus column. We're like the Washington football team, Jeff. We're scrappy. We're not flashy.

But we fight and we claw and we go to get to 500. We're almost there. You couldn't wait less than 30 seconds to name drop your Washington football team. First time in like eight years you've been able to be proud of your football organization. Yeah. First time since 1991 they beat the Steelers.

Unbelievable. And to be fair, they only play them once every four years. Some of those members within the AFC and NFC are quite misled. All right. This is guys. I'm gonna be fair with you guys. This week of lines.

Absolutely blow. It's not great. There are a lot of other things I like in these games and I'll tell you what they are. Like there's some owners. I like, there's some individual props I like, but we'll,

we'll give you five sides. We'll, we'll, we'll get there. But just be, just listen, listen you five sides. We'll get there. But just listen. Listen to every game. We'll have some nuggets here and there for every single game. Let's start with the Thursday Night Football game, a really good one.

Yeah, a really good game. It's the Rams hosting the Patriots, the resurgent Patriots. The Rams are favored by five and a half. Yeah, this one's really interesting. We stay away from Thursday games, I think, for the most part, for good reason. And I think this one, too, is sort of a stay away for Thursday night

just because the Patriots have looked good recently. But let's talk about how they've looked good, right? They beat the Cardinals in a game. The Cardinals kind of blew more than the Patriots won, right? They had that first half at snafu. They should have scored a touchdown. Then they beat the Chargers with Cam Thorn for 69 yards, right? They had multiple special team scores.

So I don't know how good they are. But I also don't trust the Rams offensively against a good defense who's getting better in the Patriots. So this is where I kind of – the number of five and a half is not great either way, really. I don't think we get value in the Patriots. The number of five and a half is not great either way, really. I don't think we get value in the Patriots, the Rams. It feels like too many points for them as well.

New England's defense was like 28th or 32nd in DVOA. Now up to 23rd. They're starting to play better. I don't know, Matt. I would lean Rams, but I don't feel great about it. I mean, the reason that the Patriots' defense has looked better is because of the teams they've played.

I mean, they beat the Jets by three points a few weeks ago. They lost to Denver. They lost to Houston. You know, they had this sort of perfect storm against the poor Chargers. I actually like the Rams here. I feel like this is one that everyone's just kind of overthinking everyone's doing the like oh they're staying in la like they're kind of good now the patriots are 29th in the nfl and big plays allowed on defense through the air

this just feels like one of those games that golf could just turn it around could unload on this team i i really think that the rams are just miles better than the Patriots. And the Patriots, look, this has been a chaotic season, right? And betters love to find something where they're like, well, I can trust the Patriots. I really think you're getting great value on the Rams. And, like, so high on the Pats, man. They scored, what, three special teams touchdowns last week?

Get the hell out of here. So here's something to think about, which maybe we're overthinking this, is like how much are we evaluating this game on the prism of the Super Bowl from a few years ago? And these teams are different now, right? And look, the Patriots are not going to score in this game, right? The Rams' defense is outstanding. And they present no issues.

You know, okay, I'm okay with putting the Rams in there. We don't do Thursday nights. I like to start off, hopefully, on a win, not a loss. But the way these lines are going the rest of the week, let's put the Rams in there as a maybe and we'll have some Thursday night fun, possibly. Yeah, I like that as a maybe. I mean, I just don't buy this Pat Steven.

Like, credit to Belichick for milking every single positive thing. They definitely, definitely a real team. This isn't the chargers. This is a real team. I agree. Okay. Next up a team.

I'm not sure if they're a real team, the Tennessee Titans laying seven and a half at Jacksonville, who was surprisingly just covering every single week. Yeah. So Jackson was covered the last two weeks with Mike Glenn and quarterback. They're averaging 24 and.5 points with him. They're actually playing decent enough football to cover a lot of these games.

I love Jacksonville plus 7.5, dude, for a couple reasons. One, obviously, is they obviously are playing a little bit better. They're doing enough to cover these games. But they've had eight losses this year within eight points. So these games typically are kind of close, right?

The last two weeks, obviously, have been very close. But also, I go back to this a lot this season, is Tennessee's third down defense is utterly atrocious. They are allowing 53% conversion, worse than the NFL, on third down. And that's a lot of points. We get that hook right there as well, right, the 7.5. I feel like this is like a late cover for Jacksonville. I think that this is kind of an old-school,

home-dog play that we've done for a long period of time. And I get Jacksonville's bad, but I really feel this is a good play with Tennessee's defense being so awful. Yeah. I mean, I think Jacksonville's the play here if you're taking this. The thing that worries me, I mean, you're right. Jacksonville has been covered. They've lost 10 straight, but they're six and six against the spread this year, which is kind of insane. And look,

they're 30th in the NFL rush defense. That's pretty worrisome. Derek Henry had his worst game of at least the you know last two months last week this feels like a decent get right spot for them we're obviously not getting it but you know everybody's sort of down on Tennessee and Jacksonville has been covering week to week but like at some point that's going to run out like Mike Glennon is still Mike Glennon but I mean I don't hate I don't hate the play if you're like if you made me pick, I'd pick Jacksonville. Yeah, I'm going to look. I need to find the Week 14 lookahead lines because I'm curious what this was before, obviously. So here's a look.

Week 13 movement. Okay, Week 14 lookahead lines. So this was going to be Titans minus 9.5. So it's moved two points to Jacksonville, even though a lot of the money is on Tennessee. So that makes a lot of sense. So the sharp money is on Jacksonville here, for those who didn't pay attention to that situation.

So a lot of the open 9.5, Tennessee favorite 9.5. Now, this is last week, right? So this is what they would have made this had both teams like handled their business last weekend. If Tennessee had won, it would have been nine and a half. And it's been bet basically down to seven and a half, which you don't get the best value, but there's a ton of public money on Tennessee,

which means the Sharps are coming in hard on Jacksonville. So I think this is like a classic. We talk about this all year and I've refused to bet him because I don't want our podcast to be betting Jacksonville, but I'm kind of like over this shit. I want to bet the games that we normally used to win, and this feels like a normally used to win bet, and I would just like some wins

and stop betting on the public favorites that we always lose on. Okay. I'm willing to consider it as a maybe. I think that if it was a – if it was seven, I think neither of us would be interested. The hook is nice. I agree. Yeah.

Tennessee's defense, big problem. If they, even if they make the playoffs, they're going to have an issue there. Okay. Next up, the Andy Dalton revenge game. The Cowboys slag three and a half at the Bengals. Great. We are blind here.

This was three everywhere today, and suddenly this is three and a half, which is just strange. Oh, boy. Oh, no. The Bengals are the public side here, Jeff. They're getting both the plurality of the bets and the money. Yeah, I think we just, I think this is just a

stay, it's just like a stay away, or I just, I can't stomach a road favorite Cowboys team. Like, this just doesn't just i can't stomach a road favorite cowboys team like this just doesn't oh can you stomach a road favorite cowboys no because you can't bet the bangles here they're not good that's that's what's so weird is this was three and the bangles are getting all the money and it moved up to three and a half which i think is one of those like biggest reminding us the amount the talent discrepancy between these two teams. But Dallas hasn't played like their talent.

That's the problem. That's what's so strange. So Dallas is the worst team in the NFL against the spread this year. They're 2-10 against the spread. That is just like, I don't think I can remember a number that was that, you know, egregious on either side. And, yeah, I don't know. I feel like this is one of those where Dallas could just roll the Bengals.

The Bengals have been competitive with Brandon Allen. Like, how much longer does that last? So here's the question. So have they, though? Because look, so the Giants game was closed because of a kickoff return, right? Otherwise, they scored 10 points on offense. Last weekend, they scored seven points against the Dolphins,

and that was on basically a zero-pressure screen and went for 75 yards. Otherwise, they have not moved the ball at all. Now, Dallas' defense is terrible. We get that. But let's say the Bengals score 14 points here. The Cowboys are scoring 20, right? Or 21 points?

Right. That's the thing. I kind of feel like Dallas, that's that's sort of what i'm saying is since he has kept these games close for reasons that don't really make sense to me dallas's dallas's defense is horrible but they're they're the run defense they're 32nd in the league i don't think geo bernard is gonna like light this team up so i like, I get why Dallas is saying a three and a half, but I, you know, The one question I have here is about motivation for Dallas. Like I know Dalton be motivated, but the rest of the team,

like I just don't know how much motivation they have. They're basically out of the division now. I mean, they got it. They have a big, they got to win all the rest of the games essentially. So do you want to put it as a maybe? I mean, what's Cincy's motivation? I you want to put it as a maybe? I mean, what's Cincy's motivation? So you want to put it as a maybe, I guess? I don't know. I mean, I guess.

This is sort of a strange week, so why not? We'll just talk about it as a maybe. Okay. Let's go to the next one. Grotesque list so far. Jacksonville and Dallas. Okay, next, I'm very curious what you think here. Arizona, one and a half point favorites at the Giants.

I can't tell which side this feels off to me on, but I do have, I don't know. I'm curious what you think. So it feels off because the Giants should be the favorite in this game. That's why it feels off, right? Because the Giants have played better football recently. The Cardinals offense

has stunk recently. Their defense is allowing a ton of points the last six weeks of the season. And nothing about the Cardinals has gone well, right? Their offense has continued to sputter as Murray's shoulders

have been messed up. A chart came out this week about DeAndre Hopkins just lining up on the left side only and never moving ever. Teams can kind of eye where he's going to be.

They have a lot of problems on offense, and the Giants are obviously riding high. Daniel Jones expected to come back. I think that's what the problem is. I thought this would have been the Giants' favorite in this game, or at least to pick them. It opened at Arizona favored by three, I believe, and it moved down to obviously one and a half now.

And I don't want to be – I don't want to join the Giants party now. Like, I don't want to be late to the, we're late to the party. The party's already started. I don't really want to jump aboard, but let's talk about the Giants real quick. Okay. So they beat the Bengals. They beat your team twice. And one of those was Kyle Allen, two-point conversion failed.

Your team twice, and one of those was Kyle Allen, two-point conversion failed. They beat, who was the other? Philly, and obviously upset Seattle this weekend where Russell Wilson just played off. Their middle linebacker, Blake Martinez, is probably not playing this weekend. Daniel Jones should be back. The question becomes, what is Arizona's offense?

What is Kyler Murray? If Kyler Murray's healthy, I'd lean Arizona here. But I just don't know. This is the thing is I don't know where I feel greatest on this side. What do you think? I think this is a great spot for Arizona. First of all, I mean, we've talked. I don't have this ad in front of me, but Kingsbury.

He's really good. Yes, he's maligned throughout the year for his game management, but he's very good in these early road games on the East Coast, traditionally. The Giants, since MetLife opened, one of my favorite stats they've only covered 40% of the time. There's something going on there.

You said it. I mean, yeah, they're on this little win streak. The Seattle game, I think, was just one of those games. Seattle didn't show up. Yeah, beat cincy and brandon allen's first start they beat philadelphia who has been a mess the the last game they won against washington kyle allen started and then left the game and alex smith came in and they won it by what i think they were by by three points like when they win they win, they sneak it out. They've been kind of lucky.

And look, Kyler Murray has not looked good. But, like, who are these Giants? I feel like they're getting a ton of respect for keeping it close against Tampa, which, again, a team that doesn't always show up. And then that game last week. I just think Arizona is clearly the better team here. And if you like Arizona, you're getting good value. It's 2-2.5 right now and all of the money and all the bets,

which means the Sharps and the public are aligned for now, are all coming out on Arizona. So this is going to go higher. So I like the Cardinals here. So, yeah, MetLife, the road team, covers 59% of the time and Kingsbury is 8, 4, and 2 against spread on the road we get a better

number here and so I like being contrarian if you haven't noticed and this is taking Arizona this week feels like everyone's going to be in the Giants and Arizona I just I so worry about Murray's shoulder though he doesn't need to play a perfect game to beat this team I know that everyone Everyone's going to be in the Giants. And Arizona, I just, I so worry about Murray's shoulder, though. He doesn't need to play a perfect game to beat this team.

I know that everyone thinks the Giants' defense is amazing. And Arizona's defense, though, has given up like 30 points. They've given up a lot of points lately, but they haven't played to the Giants' defense. They've been playing the Rams and the Bills. Yeah, dude, they're playing against Wayne Gallman and Daniel Jones with not, you know, coming off an injury. Like, this is not.

I'm good putting Arizona in there at minus the one and a half. Let's put them in there for now. That was the team that I kind of needed to be convinced to bet, even though I've kind of liked. So, I'm good with putting them in there. They're just clearly better to me. And, you know, I know that the last few weeks have gone the Giants' way. But I think it's just the product of, like, they're a tough team to beat.

I think Arizona is just clearly better. All right. Well, that was a game I had a feel for it. This one is not what I have a feel for. I would be surprised if anyone on earth has a feel for this game. Houston is a one point favorite at the bears in the super contest. I'm sure this line will move all over the place.

Yeah, this, this is, yeah, we're, if you're listening to bears fan or Texans fan, I'm sorry, but just like Matt, I got nothing for you here, man. I don't know what, Deshaun Watson on the road.

Remember, we got some luck last weekend, right? They were going in to beat the Colts and he fumbled the snap. Like they've played for as the losses they've had, they've actually played pretty well because of Deshaun Watson. But now you're taking a warm weather dome team on the road to Chicago. The weather's going to be miserable. As always, it's windy. It's going to be – it's just – but then again,

I don't trust the Bears either. Like, this would be – you bet the Bears here just because of their defense. But then Trubisky, like the way they lost that game the other weekend. It's just – just stay away from this game. Yeah, this is a stay away. I got nothing to add. Let's save the listeners some time. Moving on to another very confusing game for me,

the Broncos, three-point dogs at Carolina. Go ahead. I mean, we just, I don't even know where to begin with this game. I have not the slightest idea how I should feel about this game. The Panthers will not have McCaffrey again probably this weekend. And I, dude, we've never seen that rule off a bye, obviously. Denver's not very good, but they actually keep games pretty close, except, you know, Kansas City was only a six-point game.

A lot of money in Carolina now. I just don't really trust Denver on the road to go across and cover this game. I just think we stay away from this game, too. I'm sorry, Panthers-Broncos fans. Yeah, I mean, the thing that could change this is eight players on the Panthers put on the COVID list Monday. Yeah. And, yeah, the McCaffrey thing, it's like, that's DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel

and McCaffrey. Like, you're probably going to take Denver, but, like, are we really taking Denver? Like, that's probably a pass. No. it is a pass yeah so don't don't take this one uh don't take Carolina here anyway um next up is oh this is a good one the Vikings six and a half point favorites for certain Vikings uh six and a half point dogs, excuse me, at Tampa. So I really like Tampa here, buddy, off a bye. I know that Tom Brady is not with the Patriots anymore, but he's really good off a bye.

He is, where is he at? He's 14 and four after a bye, just straight up, obviously. Average margin of victory with 17 points. Arians, by the way, four and two off a bye as well. He's actually played really well against mike zimmer defenses in his career and again these are all patriot stats right so how much does it translate over to to tampa but here's a couple reasons why i i like like i like the tampa situation now first of all um they have to start winning football games like there's there's

no choice right like they're with all the talent they have they've had two weeks now to figure out what to do on offense. And they have a decided advantage with their offensive line against the Vikings' pass rush. They don't generate a lot of pressure. They can run the ball on the Vikings. On the flip side, the Vikings' cousins, not as good under pressure, just like every other quarterback. The Vikings' pressure, the Bucs' pressure a ton

against the poor Vikings offensive lines. I think we just get a lot of things kind of going in our direction here. A dome team outside in the Tampa Heat, 80 degrees, kickoff on Sunday. And just more, like, the Bucs have to get right. They don't have a choice, Matt. Like, this is it. If they don't get right in the first game off of a bye, they're never getting right the rest of the year.

So, and also last to consider, who is Minnesota beating in their current, they've won five out of the last six, right? They struggled to beat the Jaguars, the Panthers, and they struggled to beat the Bears. Lost to the Cowboys. Yes, they beat the Packers way back when, but that was Dalvin Cook rushing 163 yards. Tampa's number one rush defense in the NFL.

I just think if we can line up for Tampa here, and we get under a touchdown, I'll take it. You know, I leaned Minnesota until you laid all that out, and it's youth convincing. I mean, Minnesota's offense, unbelievably, is number one in the NFL in explosive play rates. But that's predicated by a good running game and a lot of those big plays are run are running plays um obviously the receivers have been amazing but if you take away

the run we need kirk cousins to go on the road and get a w uh and get a cover at least i don't think so and you mentioned the vikings little win streak reminds me of the giants like it's sort of a house of cards. But as good as Minnesota has been, they have not covered in their last three games, which usually means that the inflation of the public's perception of them is a little bit high. So you talk me into this. I'm in. It's the only public play we have so far, which is good.

Yeah. I mean, at some point, the Bucs are going to become the Bucs, you would think. I hope so. And it has to be after a bye. It has to be now. Otherwise, the bucks are going to become the bucks you would think i hope so it has to be after a buy it has to be now otherwise it's not going to happen all right man i like that let's go i like if we're going to be taking the stinky jaguars we might as well throw in a good team once in a while i'm in and fading kirk cousins is america's favorite national pastime so let's fly um next up the you are kansas Chiefs, leg seven at the Dolphins. So I love the under in this game. It's one of those ones where I'll tell you

like a different play I like other than taking a side here. The under, in my opinion, is the play. I mean, the Dolphins under two, I believe. Let me pull up my notes just to make sure here. So I get this right here. If you take out like the defensive scores and including the ones where they run the ball back to the one and they get a one

play drive in in two was um five games the dolphins offense is scoring 17 points they've always scored eight touchdowns they don't score a lot of points with two in the game the chiefs defense by the way is how the opponents under 21 eight times this year. Really good. I know that their pass rush is not terribly great. They have a lot of inefficiency. But a lot of teams aren't scoring on them, which might be the offense that they're playing. They might be playing the Jets and some of the Broncos a couple times.

And the Chiefs offense is really good. But they've had a lot of red zone issues lately. And the Dolphins defense is fantastic. But the one problem I have here with taking the Dolphins plus seven, which is the play in this game if we're doing it, the Chiefs have not covered the last four weeks, is we've seen a lot of teams play the Chiefs and decide to keep their defensive scheme in.

The Ravens come to example. The Dolphins pressure, pressure, pressure. Pat Mahomes is the best in the NFL against cover zero. The Dolphins run the most cover zero in the NFL. Pat has seven, the best in the NFL against cover zero. The Dolphins were the most cover zero in the NFL. Pat has seven touchdowns, no interceptions against cover zero. That means that everyone is, it's a Greg Williams defense. Everyone's coming, everyone's blitzing, who's not guarding a wide receiver. And we've yet to see a lot of teams adjust their defense against the Chiefs

because one is ego, obviously, right? The coach wants to run when he knows how to run. But two is that a lot of teams can't make the adjustment because they don't have the personnel to do obviously, right? The coach wants to run when he knows how to run. But two is that a lot of teams can't make the adjustment because they don't have the personnel to do so, right? So let's say that the Dolphins are a big pressure team in man coverage, right? Because that's what you do. Well, if you're not good at zone coverage, why would you run zone against the Chiefs if that's not what you're good at, right?

So you just kind of try to win with what you know. So the under, I love the under here. But I think the play is the Dolphins, Matt, but I don't trust them quite enough on offense to score enough points. And defensively, I feel like if the Chiefs hit a couple of these plays they're missing, they could score in the 28 to 31 range. And this is like a 31-10 game. You know, Jeff, I'm going to pull back the even illusion that at the end of the day,

you and I are sharps because I'm going to say some stuff here that's totally based on like my just thinking as a human being. There are a few things that feel completely unsustainable to me. Number one is the fact that Miami is getting a turnover every week on defense. Okay. That's not going to keep happening. Number two is that the Chiefs problem is that they can't score in the red zone. Like, that's not going to keep happening.

Also, the Steelers just lost. Kansas City knows that they can wrestle away this one seed seemingly out of nowhere. Like, I would think that would give them a lift. We're getting the Chiefs in kind of a buy-low spot. Like, the last couple weeks, they haven't been covering, and people are going to kind of back off of them. And everybody loves the Dolphins and the Dolphins, by the way, are getting, are getting seven and a half in most places. So you're actually getting kind of a good Chiefs line here.

I just like, am I crazy? I'm not scared of Miles Gaskin and Devontae Parker and Tua probably keeping up with this team. I feel like this could be one of those games where the Chiefs are like, oh yeah, we're awesome. And by the way, Clyde Edwards-Solaire not playing last week, killed a lot of people in fantasy. Sorry to those people. But Miami's rush defense is their weak point. They have great secondary. They've done really well against the pass this year. 21st against the rush on defense. This feels like

the fresh-legged rookie comes in and just blows the doors off of Miami here, and Miami comes back to earth. That's just how it feels. This is gambling. There's no certainty here. I know it's square, but I love Kansas City.

We'll put KC-7 down. I've always been on Kansas City. You're right. I mean, they've covered so many games for so long. They haven't covered four in a row. And yes, if they connect on some of these deep passes, the game is over fairly quickly. I mean, if they throw a fucking challenge flag last week, that whole game is different. Like they, you know what I mean? Like there's so many things that have been kind of fluky and it's hard

because they won the Superbowl last year. Like, year like i don't know i just i think that that last week might have been a kick in the ass that's fine with me for putting it on because the rest of the game is not to give a spoiler alert uh oh yikes i actually like a few of these and i would and i'd ride with the chiefs here so um all right let's put the chiefs in the let's well we have six we have like six maybes uh But let's go Colts Raiders. Colts Raiders. Raiders are home, but they are three-point dogs to the Colts, who I just am wrong about every single week.

So if we look at our friends at Action Network, they have – it tells you public and private – public money, right? And so as of the taping this Wednesday night, 47% of the bets are on Indy, but 90% of the money, and it's moving in their direction. A lot of money coming to Indy this weekend. This is a tough game. The Raiders obviously have not looked good the last two weeks.

And Indy should have lost last weekend again. I mean, they, again, looked like, eh, I don't know, Matt. This one's tough, right? Yeah, I mean, we're not taking this one. Like, right? There's no way. But if you are, you're taking the Raiders, who everyone is super down on because they barely beat the jets i don't know

man don't i'm curious as a player like it's that's what it reminds me of like uh whenever you got out a win that you should have won isn't there like a little bit of a relief after that yeah like but they should have beat the jets by more than they did, but I feel like that, you know, for them to, for them to win that game, knowing that the jets are going to, you know, odds are the jets are going to win a game eventually. I kind of think that was like a better win for them that people might

think. Yeah. It's, it's tough because the Raiders, you can look at it two ways. One is that the Raiders feel lucky they escaped, right? But now we've seen a pattern of two straight weeks of just really bad play playing down to opponents.

And maybe you could say, hey, the Colts coming to town, they're a good opponent, we'll play up for them. But I feel like it just seems to like... I don't know. We're not touching this one. But I want to go on the record and say I think I'm going to personally be taking the Raiders here because three reasons. Rivers is banged up at 39 going on the road.

The Raiders two weeks ago were very close to completing a season sweep over the Chiefs. Two weeks ago. And last week the Colts should have lost to the Texans and they got their asses kicked by the Titans two weeks ago. So I don't know. These two teams with Jekyll and Hyde, so they're not going to be one of our five, but I like the Raiders. Yeah, they're not going to be in the air. No.

Out. Speaking of a game that I'm almost positive will be out, Green Bay at Lake 7 1⁄2 at Detroit. Do you have a feel here? Well, I think that they would – you take Detroit here, but I don't know if I would want to put my money on it. Detroit's covered, I believe, three of the last four – actually three straight, I think, at Ford Field against the Packers.

And I think this is a good teaser leg to go to 13 and a half. The Lions seemed renewed and refreshed. If you listen to what they said after the game, it definitely felt like they felt like a weight off their shoulders without Matt Patricia there. Now, they didn't play terribly well against the Bears, but they came back late to win that game. So that kind of worries me about this game.

So I think we just stay away. We definitely don't take the Packers. And that's just a no-no. And I think if you're looking for, you know, in our old place, the place we first met, you would just automatically take the Lions here plus seven and a half. But I think that Jacksonville is enough. I feel better about Jacksonville covering against Tennessee than I do about

the Lions covering against the Packers. Yeah. I I'm with you. I also think, you know, Green Bay is, we've said this, they're very good when everything's going their way, and this could be one of those games. But division games, second matchup, you usually take, and a big underdog, you usually take the underdog. So I agree the Lions can play, but let's pass it. Boom.

And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool. But with my wireless, I get unlimited for just $30. Impressive. But does yours have 5G included? Of course. And my wireless saves me $400 a year.

That's because you all have Xfinity Mobile with your internet. It's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. $30 per line per month. Taxes and fees extra. Compares pricing of top carriers. Xfinity internet required. Reduced speeds after 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report. Res top carriers. Xfinity internet required. Reduced speeds after 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on

RootMetrics UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. Oh boy. The aforementioned New York Jets. 13.5 point dogs at the mysteriously shitty Seattle Seahawks. What do you think? So there's actually a surprising amount of money on the Jets.

Yeah. I mean, look, I think the play would be Seattle, but it's a lot of points. The Jets basically had their opportunity to win this year and just get crushed, right? Like, just get taken from them. Fire Greg Williams after the game, obviously, for that idiotic zero pressure call. You know, they played the last two weeks at home i believe right they

played the dolphins week beforehand they didn't cover that game i mean the problem with seattle here is i don't know what's wrong with their offense matt like their offense is a wreck russell wilson last weekend just didn't see anyone to throw to like they just there were guys open rush just didn't see it he didn't see guys on the flat. He didn't see guys deep in the field. He saw nothing last week. It was a very odd performance. We've seen some odd performances from him recently.

Their defense has been fine. They've been playing a lot better recently. But 13.5 is a lot of points, dude. Yeah, I mean, it is. But two weeks ago, what is this line? 20? I mean, think that i don't think we should take this but i i definitely think that uh seattle is covering this 33 15 and 4 against the spread in their last 52 after a loss in the carol era which is insane um you know

seattle we're buying as low as possible if we were to take this and the jets as high as possible honestly so the question is then do we trust like if we get to we could do this more we go down like for big favorites this weekend do we trust seattle minus 13 and a half or the chiefs minus seven i mean i i don't know maybe i i'm curious what you think because I'm laying the huge points on either side here. I mean, we'll get to this at the end because we have a lot of, like – we've got a lot of choices here. So let's move along.

We'll go through this all at the end, I promise here, because the next game is a – Yeah, this is the who do you trust less game. The Falcons, it's two and a half point road favorites for the Chargers who, God, what is happening with this team? Stay away. Can we just agree? Yeah, we'll just skip it.

Who are you trusting? The road favorite Falcons? Get out of here. The Chargers have just quit on their season. Like, that's very obvious last weekend. But the Falcons also sucked last weekend. Like, I just, I just, God bless you for taking the Falcons here, minus two and a half on the road.

Like, I just can't imagine why you would do that. It's gotten bent up. So, I guess people are just really out on the Chargers, which I can see why. Moving on to Jalen Hurts' debut. His Eagles are hosting the Saints, but they are seven-point dogs. Why wouldn't we take the Saints here? So a couple things.

I mean, here's one. Jalen Hurts, take the underpassing yards prop, okay? Doug Peterson said that they're going to run the ball and screen pass and all the stupid things that you do when you have a new quarterback in the game, which just infuriates me that they're talking about that. And again, I don't think he makes his team much better. He's just not Carson Wentz, right? The reason why I think the Saints are tough to take here is it does feel like a little bit of a letdown spot for them, right? The reason why I think the Saints are tough to take here

is it does feel like a little bit of a letdown spot for them, right? They played really well now with Taysom Hill three straight weeks. They just beat the Falcons again and have the Chiefs next weekend. And you have a new quarterback in Jalen Hurts, and you kind of maybe let your guard down a little bit. Oh, new guy. You know, he's not going to be very good. He just rips off a couple big plays, and you're like, oh, shit.

They scored 14, 17 points. And what are we going to do? Because look, Taysom Hill has played really well against the Falcons twice. He didn't play well against the Broncos. The Eagles defense is not half bad, Matt. Their defensive line can, you know, can, can, can, can, can and it just you just get over with that's interesting I mean this is another word it's a 90 plus road favorite Saints uh getting 90 of the bets as we're taping this i mean you you you could make the same case for

the chiefs too by the way on a look ahead yeah you could although there's uh there's not quite the discrepancy in the money on on that one correct she's only getting 70 percent um as opposed to the 91 for the saints um the saints defense is i, they've given up 28 points over the last three weeks. You know, I think that they're a nightmare for a rookie quarterback, but I kind of agree. You also said something a few weeks ago. I think it was about Taysom Hill, actually, where you said like that first week against a quarterback, it's kind of a weird skill set. Weird stuff happens.

You just don't know. They're going to throw a couple of trick plays in there, maybe a screen bust loose. skill set weird stuff happens so you just like don't know like what you know they're gonna couple couple trick plays in there maybe a screen bust loose like I think we stay away from this game I feel like we can't we have other big road favorites to bet on great teaser week dude if you want to do some seven point teasers you can throw the titans in there you can throw the Packers as the Chiefs. You can throw the Bucks in there. Lots of fun teasers this week. One game that probably no one will tease is the 49ers.

They're hosting in Arizona the Washington football team. 49ers by three. This game is in Arizona, right? Yes. Okay. So a couple things here. I actually, for my Fox Sports article that will come out tomorrow, I actually really like the first half under in this game.

It's like 20 and a half, 21. Washington under Alex Smith, under his four starts, I believe it is now, they've scored three, seven, 17 against Dallas, and three in the first half of these games. 3-7, 17 against Dallas, and 3 in the first half of these games. And the Niners have the 22nd-ranked first-half offense as well, Washington's 29th. I just feel like this is a game where you bet that first half under,

and Washington will start to slow off a big win this weekend. The Niners' offense, we'll see if Jimmy G and Kittle are back. I don't really know if they're going to rush them back to play. I don't think you bet a side in this game. There's also another, like, Washington plus nine in a teaser feels kind of nice. But I just think we just, nah, Washington's hot right now. Too much money on them. Just kind of stay away.

Yeah, I would probably lean 49ers. I think the Antonio Gibson injury for Washington is potentially like a absolute killer. You know, if you have to stop Logan Thomas and Terry McLaurin only, it feels kind of doable. So yeah, I would probably lean San Francisco, but

I don't feel that comfortable. No, I don't either. Because the football team, man, they fight hard. Proud of them. And like Alex Smith, man, like he checked down Charlie the first half of the season. All of a sudden it's just like, boom. He just like, he just like, it becomes a different guy. He's been great.

As I said, they've covered every game since he started, which is kind of his thing. Moving on to the night games. We've got the Sunday night game is a great one. Pittsburgh at Buffalo and Buffalo now two and a half point favorites i think people are a little scared of the steelers after last week yeah this is a game where man this is a tough line man because um is it uh are you gonna are you going pittsburgh here yeah totally are we gonna i mean they were gonna lose a game game eventually. They had an insane schedule last week.

They played against a team that's a fucking nightmare. It's just hard to beat a team with a great defensive line with that weird schedule. Pittsburgh is dominant on the road this year. Buffalo coming off a prime time win. Everyone's all over them. This is a great spot for Pittsburgh. If you can get them with points. A couple of things to think about here.

The look ahead line, Pittsburgh was favored by two and a half. So you swung, now it hasn't gone through key numbers, but it's moved five points, right? Essentially. So that's obviously important here. Let's talk about Pittsburgh's offense for a second i think they've had 13 drops the last two weeks if you limit half of those drops what are they right they're they're they're they're 12 and 0 right uh and so um you know overall team dvoa right now pittsburgh is two they're 17 offense first on defense 12th on special teams buffalo's

ninth right like they're they're seventh on offense 16 on defense like they're just they're 17 offense, first on defense, 12th on special teams. Buffalo's ninth, right? Like they're seventh on offense, 16th on defense. Like they're just, they're good, but Pittsburgh's just better. So they regroup after this loss to Washington. They go into Buffalo and they get to know there's a win here. I can see where you're going here. The concern I have is, you know, they just had more injuries on defense last weekend against Washington.

I don't know how that will affect them. And if Josh Allen's kind of feeling himself, it's tough to play against him. But I trust that defense. I think the value here is definitely on Pittsburgh. Yeah. I mean, if you're not totally feeling it, I'm fine leaving it off because I respect Buffalo, especially at home.

But, I mean, it feels like we won't get this situation again where we can take Pittsburgh as an underdog against anyone. No, not until they play Kansas City. That would be the last time. Yep, that's right. So is that a maybe or are we just going to pass it? No, I put a maybe. Okay, nice.

No, we'll talk about the end. All right. Last one is Baltimore at Cleveland on Monday night. This is the Ravens are favored by one point in our contest. What do you think? So I don't want to play this, but I think the Ravens are the play still. I don't want to play this, but I think the Ravens are the play still. Until proven otherwise, I've got to see Cleveland and Baker Mayfield play well against this defense.

I've yet to see it. The Baltimore defense had a bunch of guys back that they haven't had for a couple weeks now. Calais Campbell is one of them. I know they played a bad Dallas team, but their offense looked pretty good. I think Baltimore is definitely the play here. I do too. I feel like I like no games this week, and now we have 10 maybes.

They're clearly – I mean, the signal here was this open at three for Baltimore, and the market bet it down to Cleveland because they beat the Titans. It's like, okay, that might have just been a weird game, and Baltimore is getting everybody back off the COVID list this week. And I don't know. I think, I think Baltimore is absolutely a player, but I don't know. We are taking a nine and three home dog or going against a nine and three home dog. Like that might not be smart.

But when's the last time Baker Mayfield had two very good games in a row? Like it just doesn't feel like it's going to happen. Well, let's talk about the games we have. We have, because we have nine games. It's crazy. And this is what happens in a week when we don't really know what to do. I think, I feel like we just talk ourselves into a bunch of games. So we, we, we specifically like, you like the Rams.

You like the Rams, right? Yeah. Okay. So you're in on the Rams. I like the Rams, right? Yeah. Okay, so you're in on the Rams. I like Jacksonville. I'm sorry. I think it's a good play. Let's make Jacksonville official. Okay.

Okay. And then I like Tampa a lot. How do you feel about Tampa? I'm in on Tampa. You can see that. So the ones I like the most were Tampa and Jacksonville this week. I liked Arizona a lot. So Arizona, so that's four now.

So then we have to pick between Seattle, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Dallas. Well, wait, sorry. Are the Rams in? Are you losing on them? Okay, so let's talk it through here. I think the Rams are still a baby for me. Let's talk it through here.

So we have the Rams at home playing the patriots on a short week where the patriots just won a game with a quarterback done for 69 yards going three times right like we have a advantage everywhere on the field for the rams like where is there a where's the disadvantage at they're better at quarterback they're better at the lines they're better on defense. Better rushing the ball. Yeah. Like, where are they? Let's flip them. I'm in. McVay and Belichick, obviously, there's a

mismatch there a little bit, but McVay's had a chance to learn from the Super Bowl. I feel like they're not going to run back that same defense. Let's do it. That Patriots team is so ready to get exposed. And let's see what the look – the look headline in that game was Rams favored by nearly a touchdown.

So we get a little bit of value there as well. I'm curious. The Rams are getting a bunch of money too. Can we take Dallas out? There's no chance we're putting in Dallas over KC or Pittsburgh. Okay. So they're gone. So then we have – let's take Seattle minus 13.5 half out right yeah okay so Pittsburgh Baltimore Kansas

City I feel like Baltimore is the most like yeah I mean Pittsburgh is an underdog should we Off a loss? The thing I worry about Kansas City is, again, they just haven't looked very crisp lately in such situations. And the Dolphins' defense is really good. So even if this is the week they get right, though, is it really the week they get right? That's my concern with the Chiefs team. I feel, obviously, I feel better in general not betting them because I just like,

it's just like, I don't want to, I'm a Chiefs fan. Like this doesn't feel great. Like I'm just trying to look for any like, Why don't we take the best, the best or second best team in the league getting points against the bills i'm good with that i think that's just like if we're kind of even on all these like why not take

the best team probably on the board and the bill the bills were plus two and a half before the weekend yeah this is a huge swing and and what's funny is josh allen's underdog is really good but that's no longer the case he's's now the favorite. Right. Yep. Look, you're never getting the Steelers this low again. Third game in 12 days for Pittsburgh too. Four days ago people were betting on whether they could go undefeated

or not. I don't like it. Okay, so Rams minus five and a half. Jacksonville plus seven and a half. Arizona minus one and a half Jacksonville plus seven and a half Arizona minus one and a half Tampa minus six and a half and Pittsburgh plus two and a half it's pretty good slate Jeff yeah what feels off to you no just we got a lot we got a lot of sweating to do this weekend I mean this is a nightmare week and mean, this is a nightmare weekend.

Like, this is a weekend where, like, only one of the – only at the most two of these games are going to be, like, ones where I feel like, okay, like, Tampa and the Rams probably – they should win these games by a touchdown. Yeah. The other ones are just like, oh, boy. All right. Screw it, man.

It's a weird week. Let's do it. Let's fly. We got the Jags in there. We got one of our sharp plays in there. And you gave out a first half under. You gave the people their money's worth. Yeah.

Sorry, guys, for the – Okay. All right. Rams, Jacksonville, Cardinals, Tampa, Pittsburgh, plus two and a half. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the football. We're digging ourselves out of a hole with an odd card, but I don't care.

It's an odd card. This is the first weekend, but we've had an odd card. Maybe this is the weekend we need a five and a weekend. It's an odd card. That's right. We're due, buddy. All right. All right, guys.

Have a great weekend, everyone. Take care, Matt. Talk to you guys next week.