Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 15

Episode Date: December 17, 2020

Matt and Geoff are back at it in Week 15 to discuss every game from around the league and pick their 5 favorite SuperContest lines. Kyler looks to guide the Cardinals into the playoffs against a rookie quarterback, while the top team in the AFC faces off against the top in the NFC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, December 17th. We have a big week ahead of us. Keep stacking those winning weeks. We're trying to fight back, Matt, to 500. I'm Jeff Schwartz, alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz. This is Marty. Before we get going, simple review. We go through every game. We pick five sides, and we'll talk about over-unders. We'll talk about props. We'll do all that. I hit a couple of those last week. But Matt, before we get going here, your Washington football team is in first place of the NFC East playing three different quarterbacks and 17 different running backs. But you're here.

Can you believe you're a Washington football team? They're like us. We're clawing. We don't know how. We're in the mix here. We're not even 500, but somehow we're still doing this.

Yeah, I can't believe it. I think Ron Rivera deserves real consideration for Coach of the Year. I mean, just navigating what he's had to navigate from his cancer diagnosis, the name change, COVID, you know, all of it. It's just an amazing job. It's fantastic. So let's get to the games this week.

Maybe we'll pick the Washington football team, but let's start with Thursday night football. Maybe we will. First off, we've got the Chargers at the Raiders. In a game I have a feeling we might be interested in, the Raiders are the standard three at home favorites. Oh, man. This one is so tough because the play is so easy,

the Chargers plus three here. But Anthony Lynn, like, I just can't. I can't do it. I can't do it. There's 32nd-ranked special teams. In my opinion, this is a great tease game. The Chargers plus nine. They haven't lost, I think, outside of three games this year

and more than six points. And this is, like, right. It's a great tease game for the Chargers. You might like the Raiders, Matt, but my problem with the Raiders is they're not playing good football right now. Look at their last three games. Blown out by the Falcons, sure lost the Jets, blown out by the Colts. And these are games, Matt, they have to win to be in the playoff hunt.

What makes me think on a short week, they fired their DC, they're out their best end, or not their best, but they're at clean and fair. They're out Abrams again. Like, they're out a bunch of guys on defense again their best corner like what am i supposed to expect the raiders to do on thursday night well you're right um i think you're overlooking that the chargers suck uh the chargers yeah they beat atlanta okay matt ryan threw three picks uh and julio jones we're still not sure if if he's coming back and you know they barely snuck by last week vegas better coached short week they've covered six straight against the afc west i think are they better coached like i mean they are but they really they haven't been the last three weeks like unless it's adam gaze they're

they're ahead um yeah so i i don't know this isn't one i feel strongly about i i assume you'd be in on the raiders here but if we're split no we're supposed i do think chargers plus nine is a great is a great tease we're going to build a tease today i'm going to build a tease throughout the show i think chargers plus nine is a good start interesting well this will be a good tease candidate for you here the uh carolina panthers and not christian mccaffrey thanks thanks for all those fantasy owners who are with me uh they're eight and a half point dogs at green bay on saturday a couple things here uh that might interest us panthers have covered five straight as a visitor and seven or last eight getting points

um and we know teddy bridgewater is an absolute freak show as as a as a as covering as a road um as a as a road not a road just as a as a dog in general right he's like he's unbelievable doing that um but dude the panthers i think are just done like they're just they're done um i said all along i like the panthers to not even win five and a half games which is their win total i just think they're they're done but my concern with betting the packers here is the packers have kind of yet to have they lost the vikings but the vikings i think aren't half bad but they haven't had like a stink fest like a true stink fest this year and i wonder if this is the weekend for that't had like a stink fest, like a true stink fest this year.

And I wonder if this is the weekend for that. They had the one stink fest against Tampa where they, yeah, but Tampa is a good team. It's not a stink fest. It's a bad team. We've like, we've had like,

they kind of seem to have those every year. And maybe they're just not, they're not this year. They didn't cover against the lines last weekend. Right. The game was closer than, than, you know, and so I think I would lean Packers here 8.5.

Their offense, guys, is rolling right now. I believe it's number one in the NFL in DVOA. It is number one in the NFL in DVA. They're 20th on defense or 26th on special teams. I mean, Carolina, believe it or not, has a 9th rated DVOA on offense, but are 27th on defense. I think the over here is almost the play more than anything else. I think we probably agree because I think the Panthers are obviously the over here is almost a play more than anything else i think we probably agree um because i think

the panthers are obviously the play here if you're gonna make it um the packers tend not to cover these big games they're one and three and they're also they're favored by more than a touchdown and you mentioned teddy bridgewater um you know this just there's two things that are kind of weighing on me here. The first is this little COVID scare that the Panthers offense had. You know, every team has sort of reacted differently. We think DJ Moore's coming back. Samuel should be back. Caffrey's not back.

But this also feels a little bit like this could be the Aaron Rodgers MVP game. He's playing on a day. He's playing against a vast defense. He could just come out and throw for, like, six touchdowns and all of a sudden change the narrative. And I feel like he usually, like, steps up in those kinds of situations. So I'm fine passing this, but I also wouldn't mind considering the Panthers. Yeah, I think we're on separate sides of this. So I'm good with passing because the next game is our favorite,

I believe our favorite, at least one of our favorites of the weekend. I think so. So that's Buffalo, six and a half point road favorites in the Super Conference at Denver. So we absolutely love the Broncos, both of us, for many reasons. How about this? So first of all, I know it's six and a half. It was floating at seven today.

I got this at actually plus seven myself. Road favorites this year of a touchdown or more favorite, okay? Nine and 17 against the spread. Wow. Even going back since 2003, which is BetLabs, as far as they go back, this number is below 50%. Road favorites, touchdown or more. Okay.

Vic Fangio is a dog. Broncos head coach, 14-7 against the Browns. So the trends go in our direction. But there's more reasons than that. The Bills are off an emotional victory against the Steelers. And by the way, guys, their offense didn't play as well as we think they did. They scored 19 points on offense. Josh Allen was like 27

of 43 for 260-ish yards. The Broncos' defense is really good. I don't know if we pay attention. They actually can get after teams. We've seen them get after the Chiefs and other teams. Their rushing defense, according to Pro Football Focus, Broncos, 6th in the NFL. Their coverage unit is 4th

in the NFL. Pretty good defense. But here's why I think the Broncos keep this game close, enough to where I'd like to cover. The Bills, 32nd-ranked rushing defense, according to Pro Football Focus. And we've seen the teams that have kept it close this year have rushed the ball well against them. Chiefs, Rams, Titans, Cardinals, Patriots. I think the Broncos, they love to run the football.

They have their running backs back healthy. They're working after it. Here's one more interesting stat. One more thing that bolsters this. It's kind of odd. I didn't think I'd find this. Since week 11, Drew Locke, the Broncos quarterback, is fifth in EPA in the entire NFL.

He's been kind of good. He's playing better football. So I get the Bills off this big emotional win going on the road. It's going to be cold in Denver. It's going to be miserable in Denver. I think that the Broncos here, I love the plus six and a half. I think the Broncos will keep this game very close, like a field goal game.

Give me the Broncos here. I'm with you. I mean, I shouldn't add much, but I just have more blocks to put on your fire here. I mean, Buffalo's only one in three against the spread as a road favorite this year. They haven't had to cover as big favorites despite being sort of a public darling and a good team there were nine and a half point favorites against the jets and they won by eight so they didn't cover that you mentioned the big win in prime

time and an emotional win they've actually won two straight games in prime time which for a team that never plays on prime time is kind of a big deal. Nick will laugh at this, our producer, because I'll mention the travel. At the end of November, they were home. They flew to San Francisco. They flew back home to play Pittsburgh, and now they're flying again to Denver. The next week they go to New England.

It's a brutal schedule, and here we are with 80-plus percent of the money on Buffalo as a road favorite. You always want to fade that let's go let's put that right and and this is we we actually picked the wrong home favorite last weekend i mean the road the wrong home dog last weekend uh the three other ones we didn't take over touchdown all covered we took jacksonville which i felt great about that was obviously that's bad but um i think we're in the right spot here. That's great.

All right. I like that one. I feel good that we've got one in. We haven't even made it to Sunday yet. Okay. Let's move to Sunday. AFC South battle. The Texans at the Colts.

Colts are laying seven. God love you if you like this one. Yeah. I mean, seven 7 I don't like anything I think if under a touchdown maybe I like the Colts but I think the Colts here remember two weekends ago they played this game and Deshaun Watson

was driving down to win the game and they fumbled and we covered we committed with the Colts the only thing that I would say to this game is that if you look to the Colts the Colts. The only thing that I would say to this game is that if you look to the Colts, the Colts, I think, here are the more motivated team, and they're much healthier. The Texans are so beat up.

We saw in Chicago last weekend, they laid a complete egg. Their season's done. They're done for it. The Colts are kind of ascending. They got guys back from COVID. Jonathan Taylor's starting to play well. I can see this game being a blowout, but the concern is Deshaun Watson is really good in the fourth quarter games.

This game is inside division opponent. So if you're going to bet this game, I think you take the Colts. They're better trenches. They're playing better right now, but Deshaun Watson, it's getting seven points is my worry. Yeah, I don't like it. I mean, it's a good matchup for the Colts. The Texas have a terrible run defense.

You mentioned Taylor, but yeah, I just, I don't like it i mean it's a good matchup for the colts the texas have a terrible run defense and you mentioned taylor uh but yeah i just i don't like it when these two teams play this close together in the division uh you know usually weird stuff happens so that's a pass for me pass let's do it all right speaking of passes jeff the lions plus 11 at the titans has anyone ever loved a game where the spread is 11? That's just such a strange number. It's a weird number. And look, the Lions, since Darryl Bevel got there, they're covering games now. Last two weekends, right? They covered, they beat Chicago.

They covered against the Packers. The reason why this line is so big is Matt Stafford, where we don't know at the time we're taping whether he's playing or not. Derrick Henry is rushing on the warpath for 2,000 yards. If Stafford's in this game, I think plus 11 is definitely the play, especially with the Titans' defense. But it's Wednesday, and we don't know if Stafford's playing yet.

This is a game where I actually think, dude, that if the one advantage we have of this, which we never have advantages taking these numbers on Wednesday typically, is like if Stafford plays in this game, this number might climb back down within, you know, to about nine, right? Like we might get a good number here, but I would stay away for now. Yeah. I mean, even a kind of limited Matt Stafford and Chase Daniel,

I mean, it's kind of interesting, like how much of a difference that would even make. But yeah, for now, for now, it's kind of interesting, like, how much of a difference that would even make. But, yeah, for now this is a pass, and it may be if Stafford comes back, I guess. Okay, moving on to, oh, boy, the Jets are, oh, God, 17 and a half point dogs at the Rams in the contest. Odds? So I do like a bet in this game.

Sam Darnold under the passing yards. If you're looking for a bet to lay some money in this game, I got it somewhere for Fox Sports. My article will be out this week. I got it 202.5, all right? Wow, that's low. Yeah, but the Rams are only allowing 197 yards, excuse me,

191 yards per game through the air. And Sam Darnold has only been over 200 yards twice this season. Twice. That's amazing. Wow. That's a good find. I think that if you're looking for a bet in this game, it's that. Otherwise, this is a game.

Remember the Rams played the Giants this year? They were big home favorites. And we were like, this feels like a game remember the rams by the giants this year they were big home favorites and we were like like this feels like a game where the rams just lollygagged their way through it it's like 24 to 7 and they don't cover but i don't want to i'm not betting the jets here either yeah it's interesting it feels like um vegas assumes that this is going to keep going this is at 17 now on Wednesday night, and still money is pouring in on the Rams, and the Super Contest must be anticipated.

It's going to keep going. I don't know what the number would be for anyone to feel comfortable taking the Jets. 20, maybe? Yeah. So, all right. That's a pass for us. A nice prop bet, though.

I'm glad you had anything to add about that game because I didn't even consider it. Okay, Jeff, next. Thank God we're not discussing that hideous game anymore. Next, we have the 49ers road favorites, three points at Dallas. So I think the Niners are the play here. They're 10-4 on the last 14 games on the road covering the spread um the cowboys beat the bangles sure but the bangles are god awful um and the diners look i get it you know nick

mullins isn't the best quarterback in the world but they're well coached they're much better coaching the cowboys they play hard they play physical i think if you're looking for a side here it's definitely the niners i don't know if i if we want to put this in here but are we we're not but we're not being the cowboys are we no we're not um but also this just this this is sort of just a trend for this week in general there's a lot of these road favorites this week that just seem a little bit fishy and this feels kind of like one of them i mean i i watched a decent amount of the 49ers game last week as you mentioned the washington football teams uh my fandom for them um you know nick mullins just doesn't have it and if if mostert is samuel went

out in that game i don't believe he's going to play this week mostert's potentially injured again which would be terrible like at some, there's just a quick- It's week 15, you know? Like, these guys, like, they just don't have enough horses. If those guys are out, then definitely a problem. But look, Nick Mullins against bad defenses, man. Like, he's okay. He's just okay, which is better than, I don't know.

I think you're probably right. We just stay away from this for now. But I think the Niners are the side here. I really do. The Cowboys are 3-10 this year against the spread. They're just insane. They're not good this year. And I'm good with staying away,

but I think the Niners aren't a bad player. I've got to look at the money. I'm curious what Nick put in here, too. Oh, 99% of the money is in the Niners aren't a bad player. I've got to look at the money. I'm curious what Nick put in here, too. Oh, 90% of the money is on the Niners. Gross. We're not betting that game. I didn't realize that. That's gross.

There's something a little bit fishy. Oh, God, this game opened at Dallas favored by one and moved four points. I kind of like Dallas plus three now. I was kind of leaning towards dallas too but again it's like why would you bet them like what what exactly are you betting on you're fading nick mullins you're taking a whole dog late in the season like okay but dallas sucks man it's yeah all right let's let's just do ourselves a favor and not even think about that game ever again and move on. Next up, we've got Tampa at the Falcons. Tampa's laying the six in Atlanta.

Talk about this kind of sketchy road favorite line. Oh, man. Because we have a rule in this podcast, we don't bet the Falcons, right? It's a good rule. That should be every politician's platform. But I'm not really sure what why you bet tampa here either right like tampa did not look terrible we got that game because they the vikings missed you know missed out 10 points with a kicker um the series has gone over uh the last

four and seven the last eight meetings uh thes have been over in 18 of 29 games under Bruce Arians. So I'd be looking to play this game, and the total is going to be, I know it's probably super high yet. Oh, it's only 50. You might be looking to play the over here. I just, oh, God, this game is just, no value here on the Bucs whatsoever. And again, we don't bet on the Falcons on this podcast.

So I'm out on this game. Again, the over 50 feels like a good play here. That's not a lot of points. Yeah. I think if you're going to play this one, you wait. There's still, even though the bets are split weirdly, it's kind of early on this one, but 98% of the money is on the Bucs.

So this thing is going to keep climbing this is going to get to seven or so and i think if it's at seven or seven and a half like i would take the falcons one of the reasons why is there's a covet thing going on with the bucks and they currently don't be at ronald jones but they currently don't have a kicker and we just saw with the bucks what it could what a kicker can do to move a game. The thing is, though, with Atlanta is like without Julio Jones, like they just aren't a team I would ever consider. They can't move the ball.

They can't move the ball. It's crazy how much of an impact he makes. So this is a pass. It looks, you know, Julio, if he plays, he'll be limited. So maybe if you can get it a little bit higher, you go with Atlanta. But not for us. Not for us. I mean, this could be a game you tease Tampa to pick them too, by the way.

But I don't, you know, I don't trust them. Like, I'm not – I looked at teases this week in Tampa. Like I said, I like the Chargers plus nine. I like to actually – we mentioned the Colts game. I like the Colts at minus one if you're teasing things, right? The Colts should win that game. So Bolts plus nine, Colts minus one. There's a game later that I make a three-team teaser.

But I looked at Tampa hard this week. I just, we talked about this all week last week. I thought off a bye, and we got lucky. We handicapped it wrong, I think, right? They did not look like they were any different off a bye. We got lucky. The Vikings just couldn't make their kicks. And again, what changes this weekend, I think, right? They did not look like they were any different off a bye. We got lucky. The Vikings just couldn't make their kicks. And again, what changes this weekend? I don't know

unless the Falcons have just given up. They didn't look like they gave up last weekend. They lost because Matt Ryan didn't play well. So stay away. Yeah. The way the Bucs defense could win this game for them. That would be how it happens. Yeah, but I just I can't. I'm not doing it. Yeah, that's a pass.

Okay, this one is one I really like. This is – the next one is New England at Miami, and Miami is a two-point favorite. I'm curious what side you like here. I have no feel for this game. I'll let you try to convince me of a side. It's Miami. I mean, what exactly gives New England any credit to keep this one close?

Brian Flores, 19-6 in his last 25 against the spread. Last week, they absolutely hung in there with the Chiefs. They covered that game. No one thought that they were going to really be able to keep pace with them. They had the best showing against Mahomes that maybe anyone has this whole season. And now they have to face the Patriots who can't even throw for 100 yards a game. I just don't even think these teams are even close to even. But the Dolphins aren't getting a lot of credit here.

Like, they moved the ball last week. They're 10-3 against the spread this year. New England is 6-7. I just think they're head and shoulders the better team. And this one feels to me like the Patriots are getting credit for the last 15 years instead of the last 15 weeks. And I really like the Dolphins.

What's the stat of Bill Belichick against rookie quarterbacks? It's like he just dominates them. What's the stat of how much the Patriots defense sucks ass? What do they even have? I'm with you here. I think this is more about it's within a field goal and new england's offense is just atrocious and so you look at

new england's offense right now you know 24th and dvoa and you look at miami's defense 11th like and miami's defense is really good on special teams not defense but their team is and that your vibes are with new england special teams there's no advantage there um and you're right under a field goal this is great value for miami because you know this is over a field goal i think we feel differently but under a field goal i get miami off again you can have in my opinion um this is like a moral loss essentially right like they hung tough for the cheese out of 30 to. Came all the way back in that game. The best the offense had looked since the Cardinals game in almost a month. The one concern I have, and I'm putting it down here.

I kind of like this. You convinced me to take it. And this might be a thing, again, more about the logo on the side and the hoodie, is when they're backed against a wall, they seem to play well. When everyone's like, oh, they're not going to play well this weekend, they seem to do it. So that's what I worry about here. But I think the Dolphins are a good enough team that they can win this game

by a field goal. So I'm with you. Let's put them in there. Yeah. I mean, also, the Patriots just haven't beaten or even covered against good teams. They're one and four against the spread with teams that are above 500 this year.

So I think Miami is in a really good spot. Oh, nice. I didn't know that. That's good. Okay. So Dolphins are maybe. Well, we only have two right now, so they're in. Oh, well, let's go.

Maybe this will be one of them. The Seahawks are five-point favorites at Washington. How Alex Smith is all about is just what this game matters. Like, I would love to bet Washington plus five here. This game opened at three and moved to five. So, I'd love to bet Washington here. They're getting none of the money. Money's pouring in on Seattle.

But I got to know Alex Smith's health before I bet this game. Yeah. It's just kind of crazy. For the third time in the last four weeks, the Seahawks are playing the first place team in the NFC East, which is kind of insane. Washington has, you could, depending on what number you've got, they've covered or at least pushed in eight straight.

They're just a very reliable cover every week, which is again, a sign of your coaching. But I think Antonio Gibson is really the, is maybe more important than Alex Smith. The Washington offense looked terrible last week. You know, the defense scored twice. So this is probably a pass unless those two guys are playing, in which case Smith and Gibson, in which case I'd consider them.

Yeah. Random number here. The official for this game, 67% of the games he officiates go under. Oh, nice. Now, the total is 44.5. So that's – I mean, it's not that high of a number, but that's a cool little official stat there. I mean, it's, it's not that high of a number, but that's like, that's a cool little,

a little official stat there. How about that? That's really good. I feel like we're randomly like very smart on this game. You know, the kind of the covers, the wraps, we got it all here.

But with all of that, we still don't have a side. So yeah, I don't know. I, I, I know we, I know we don't have a lot yet,

but there's, we're going to have a lot coming up very soon. Don't worry, everybody. Hang in there. Sounds good. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide.

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Non-endorsement. Next up, Chicago at Minnesota. Man, what a strange game. Three point, standard three for the Vikings here. Yeah, standards stay away from this game. What the hell? Is Mr. Biscay good at football now all of a sudden? Like, is he good?

I mean, the Vikings don't have a kicker right now. I have no idea what happens in this game. Is it weird? I kind of like the Bears? The Vikings are 2-5 at home against the spread this season, which is insane. And we talked about this. These teams recently played a few weeks ago. Dalvin Cook never has success against his Bears team.

He did have almost 100 yards last time, but he carried it 30 times. Do you want to bet a Bears team that's getting 80% of public money on the road? No. No, I have no interest whatsoever. But I am exploiting that that would be the side that I would be on. The Dalvin Cook is good. He does not rush well against the Bears at all. Never.

Last four years. Last four times, you're right. Really, really bad. So maybe look at Dalvin Cook prop here as an under prop somewhere. I like that. All right. That's a pass. Running out of real estate here, Jeff.

So maybe you got something here. But, God, I hope not. It's Jacksonville's plus 12.5 at Baltimore. I don't. Let's just skip this game. I'm sorry, Ravens and Jags fans, because I have a lot to talk about the next three games. I'm not going to waste your time babbling away here. This is not a game that anyone should bet this weekend.

Yeah, I had nothing good here. I was hoping you did. So that's a hard pass. Next up, we have the Philadelphia Eagles plus six at Arizona. This one to me is a no-brainer. I love Arizona minus six. Wow. Yes. I love. Okay. There's many I love Arizona minus six. Wow. Yes.

I love, okay. There's many reasons for this. Wow. Yes. Okay. Here's the deal. So we took Arizona last weekend with the premise that maybe Kyler Murray was healthy. Very clear was much healthier in that game against the Giants, right?

We talked about DeAndre Hopkins. Hey, DeAndre Hopkins is on one side of the field, never moves, not doing very much. Guess what? He was back in the offense, played well this weekend. Now they play an Eagles secondary that's very, very beat up, right? Eagles secondary not very good right now and very beat up. Eagles defensive line, fantastic against New Orleans. Fantastic.

Cardinals offense I can kind of block a little bit. And Murray's scrambling again. He's running again. He's making plays down the field. But look at the Eagles offense, okay? Jalen Hurts played well. Sort of well, right? kind of block a little bit. And Murray's scrambling again. He's running again. He's making plays down the field. But look at the Eagles' offense, okay? Jalen Hurts played well. Sort of well, right?

I mean, okay, average, right? It wasn't like a great game. They scored an 80-yard touchdown run. They scored on a short field. They got him a field goal. I think he threw the ball five times the second half. I just, I think there's so much, so much money in the Eagles this weekend.

I don't see it, man. They're going on the road to Arizona. I think we're placing way too much on everyone being so happy. Eagles looked halfway decent with Jalen Hurts. He was like 24th in EPA last weekend. It wasn't that good. And the Cardinals looked healthy. Kingsbury covers all the time.

I don't know, man. I love Arizona here. I'm really surprised because everybody, this is like uniform Philadelphia. Everyone's taking them. Exactly. It's one of the reasons why I like the Cardinals this weekend.

Yeah. I just, I... Huh. You know, I didn't even consider Arizona as a take here, but I got to say, you kind of talked me into it. Look, are you telling me, Matt, that we're going to take Jalen Hurts on his first road game against a defense that just tortured the Giants, okay?

And again, Jalen Hurts, he didn't play terribly well. He played, he did barely okay. He should have thrown a pick six, by the way, that was dropped by the Saints defender. He had the ball in his hands going back the other direction. How do we feel about Jalen Hurts if that pass is caught? Like, I think we got mesmerized by the result of the game and didn't actually look at what happened in the game.

And so, I think Arizona, man, I don't trust Kingsbury sometimes, but they look like the team we thought they were going to be against the Giants. Yeah. Interesting. I mean, road dogs tend to do well against Kingsbury. 4-1. It's a pretty limited sample size. I wrote in my notes here, I was like, this feels fishy to me

because everybody's taking the Eagles. All the money is on the Eagles. All the bets are on the Eagles. This line has not moved, which makes me think that Vegas knows that the regression is coming here. Well, there's really no regression. Like, again, it wasn't, it was,

we talked about this last week. Like, the Saints, in my opinion, were prime for that game. I said the game would be 20 to 14, Saints would win. Like, I didn't think the Saints' offense would play very well. I think this match would be 20 to 14 Saints would win. Like, I didn't think the Saints offense would play very well. I think this matchup, though,

just really matches up well for, I mean, do you want to take Jalen Hurts? Do you think Jalen Hurts should be getting 80% of the bets on the road in his first road start against a Cardinals defense that's 9th in DVOA? I don't think so. And I...

And they're healthy again, too. The Cardinals, for a long time had a bunch of guys on defense out they're all back now i'm with you jeff i'm in let's uh you talked me into it i did not expect to be on the side of this one but uh i like i saw this right away and i was like you know big plays arizona's offense fourth in nfl they're fourth in russian um yeah the eagles defense definitely can get after the passer. But if Cullimer is healthy, which he showed last week, man, like you're not going to stop him.

Here's a few things, too, about Jalen Hurts real quick. He only threw the ball over 10 yards eight times. He completed two of those eight for 29 yards. Like he's not, he's not, he doesn't know if on the ball down. I feel like the, the game plan is in now for this game. And I just think we saw a Cardinals team that looked better last weekend. I'm in Jeff.

Let's put it in. All right, let's do it. Okay. Next up, Jeff, it's one of my favorites of the week. It is, and it plays the Noral asking pretty well. It's the Chiefs at the Saints game of the week.

Chiefs are three-point road favorites. Let me hear your Chiefs take, because I think we're on the same board, the same place here, and I'll give you mine. So I didn't want to spoil it in the last section when we were talking about Jalen Hurts hurts but one of the reasons that you've successfully talked me into jalen hurts not being so good is because i am not positive the saints are that good just take a look at their schedule i know this sounds crazy they haven't beaten anyone this year the only team

they've beaten that's any good is the bucks they beat them twice here's who they beat atlanta denver with no quarterback atlanta again san francisco chicago carolina the chargers the lions they lost to the packers and the raiders so you think we all think of them as this other this elite team that's in the same category as the chiefs and even the packers um you know there's they're i just don't think that they're there and by the way the chiefs and even the packers um you know there's they're i just don't think that they're there and by the way the chiefs have won their last nine both straight up and against the spread when they're favored by under seven so i'm a little bit surprised this isn't higher i kind of think the chiefs roll here like this is a statement game for them and you think tasem hill's going to be able to put up those kinds of points? I don't think so.

What was that said again? Nine straight under a touchdown favorite? Favorite by under seven. They've won their last nine straight up and against the spread. Wow, that's incredible. So let's talk this through here. So a couple things. Do you like the three

with Drew Brees starting as well? I think I probably do because he's probably not super effective. So there's a couple things to think about. The Chiefs have been terrible at closing games out. We've talked about this. They have a cover now of five straight. But they also haven't had opportunity to be as motivated as this game. Like this is a big game for everyone involved.

It's a possible Super Bowl preview with Pittsburgh now losing. Now the Chiefs can afford to lose this game and still have the number one seed. But nonetheless, like if they win this game, it's all but wrapped up. Like that's it. Like this is it, number one seed. And it's inside, no weather concerns whatsoever. And if it's Taysom Hill, this number is fantastic. I think it probably, if it's announced that Taysom Hill is starting,

this goes, how far does this climb up to? I mean, I think this kind of assumes, do we assume Breeze is playing? Like, I feel like this is a Taysom Hill number. Really? Oh, geez. Well, even then, I like it more. I mean, he's not projected to play from everything I've seen today. One thing that does worry me about the Chiefs is right now, Well, even then, I like it more. He's not projected to play from everything I've seen today. One thing that does worry me about the Chiefs is right now, my brother is on injured reserve still.

So the right tackle's out. The left tackle, Eric Fisher, had to leave practice because he had a back injury. The backup to both those guys also did not practice with a back injury. So we might go into New Orleans with that defensive line, down both tackles, and they're also down a couple interior guys earlier this season. That concerns me in this game. So I like the Chiefs minus three, but I think we're flirting with a disaster if their offensive line is that beat up.

But the question is obviously can Pat Holmes get the ball out quickly, which he can, right? Andy Wienke will design an offense to get the ball out quickly. So I'm with you here. Chiefs minus three. I think that's the right side. I love your stat about nine straight under a touchdown covering those. Let's do it, buddy.

Let's do it. I'm in. I didn't think I'd have to talk you. It wouldn't be very hard to talk you into the Chiefs. No, it would not. Okay, let's move on to the weird flexed sunday night game the cleveland browns and giants are sunday night game the browns are four and a half point road favorites i know you're gonna think i'm crazy here but i think the play is the cleveland browns mine's the four and a half wow yeah so

let's talk about a couple things here we talked about this on the show the other day. Emotional losses like that can set you back. They can. But they can also motivate you, right? When you're a young team, you're a young up-and-coming team, and the Browns are. They're very young. Youngest team, not the youngest team in the NFL.

They haven't had a guy start over 30 this year, 30 years old. You have a crushing loss like they do. It can actually motivate you because that feeling you had inside is terrible, right? You lost your division rival at the last second, and it motivates you to play better. It motivates you to close out games, and it motivates you to take your play to the next level because the Browns know they can compete with the NFL now. They know that, right? They were down 14 points in this game to a playoff team in the Ravens, a team that tested veteran team, and they marched their asses back down and got themselves a chance to win the football game, right?

And I think that confidence, even in a loss, can be very good for a team. Now, it's a short week, I get it, going on the road to face a Giants team that Daniel Jones might not play. If Daniel Jones is not playing this line, by the time we get to Sunday, is going to be seven points, right? I think that's part of the reason I like this game is because if Daniel Jones does not play, this line is going to balloon. We have great value on Wednesday night taking this game.

But did you watch Daniel Jones this weekend? He came back from an injured hamstring, sacked eight times, and injured his ankle now. He's had a hamstring andacked eight times and injured his ankle. Now he's got a hamstring and ankle injury. What does Baker Mayfield do best, right? When he's not pressured, the Browns offensive line will handle the Giants defensive line. I'm not concerned about that.

The Browns offensive line is one of the best in the NFL and Baker Mayfield, by the way, last two, last two weeks, 677 yards passing and, and, and six touchdowns. Like he is, he's doing a good job. And I'm with this. I'm talking about the Giants offensive line, man. Now I get Miles Garrett, Olivier Vernon. They allowed five sacks.

They allowed five sacks to Hassan Redick last weekend. Are you kidding me? One last, one last thing too. I know I'm kind of going all over the place here. Really interesting find here. So the Giants run defensive corner pro football focus is really good, but they're like 28th in tackling. And when you can't tackle the Browns running backs,

that's a problem in my opinion. So I know it's going against conventional wisdom here to take a team off an emotional loss on a short week. Going back, by the way, on Sunday Night Football, like another big spot. But I really like the number here, because I think we get value on Wednesday night, taking this at four and a half.

I got to say, I was sort of looking for a reason to take Cleveland here, because everybody's going to want to take the Giants, the home dog. This whole time where the Giants have been kind of hot, I thought it was bullshit. I mean, they had a really impressive win against Seattle, but we loved Arizona last week for all the reasons you basically just laid out, which is Jones is either not going to play or he's limited.

That offensive line is in shambles with injuries and just bad play. And I think their defense is a little smoke and mirrors they're a bunch of good veterans and it seems like a good coaching staff um but i do not think they're a good team and i think cleveland's you know maybe bankers turn the corner i don't know but they're getting contributions from all over their roster and they're a much better team so So I'm okay with this. Yeah. Again, if Daniel Jones doesn't play, this is a no-brainer, right? Four and a half?

Yeah. Oh, yeah. And you're right about the veterans on defense. The Giants have the second worst offense in the NFC. I don't think we realize that. They're 28th. They're only ahead of Washington, who's played three quarterbacks this year. Yeah. Look, there's also probably going gonna be a photo stall on the grounds uh in new york for the next couple of days

ice and colds running the ball i'm i'm fine with it it's interesting i wouldn't have guessed that this would be one of ours but i'm very fine fading the giants yeah um i think i think under might also be in play here by the way too, too. So we'll – yep. Nice. Let's lock it in. Next up we've got the Monday Night Game, which is, God, the Steelers, 12.5-point favorites at the Bengals. Yeah.

What a shame that this isn't a Burrow game. This is Joe Burrow, sure, but I'm not betting on Allen to cover this game. Even though Pittsburgh, this is a spot they always don't cover in, but I can't do it. Especially when we have, I think, by the way, we only picked five games this week. We didn't even have a maybe. We just had five games.

That was it. Is that good or bad? I think it's good. Why don't you run through them? Because I think we agree that if you're betting this game, you're betting the Bengals, but we're not agreeing to do that out of five. We have five games. Ready? Denver plus six and a half.

Done. I loved your Miami analysis. I think you're exactly right there. Miami minus two. Fantastic. Arizona minus six. Again, against the grain, everyone's betting on Philly. I'm not going to do it. Let's go. Doug Peterson, though, is actually really good against the spread when he doesn't have carson wentz as his quarterback yeah that's hilarious um kansas city minus three cleveland minus four

and a half those are five we have yeah oh by the way speaking of uh of silly stats um the giants at home either this is one of my favorites three three and nine, Daniel Jones against spread at home. Giants 34, 50, and two against spread. Yeah, they're 40% at MetLife. Unbelievable. Home field disadvantage. Yeah, it's wild to me. Yeah, it's crazy.

Yeah. Well, we have five. I mean, the only ones that i think we could potentially put in the mix are if matthew stafford plays and we're looking at plus 11 against the tytoons and then maybe washington but i don't i can't imagine that that would crack the top the top six even uh if alex i don't think so either kc minus three dude that dude. That's a, that's a, wow. Yeah. Kind of ballsy. It is, but I kind of like it.

Drew Brees did practice today, but it will. Again, even Drew Brees is back. Like, what do we expect from this first time back? He's 41, man. Like, is he going to be awesome the first game? Like, his little time with Michael Thomas, they didn't seem to be in sync at all. So, yeah. I mean, maybe they completely shut down Hilarion Bell. I don't think that really matters.

Yeah. All right, buddy. I think we're good. Denver, Miami, Arizona, KC, Cleveland. That's the first time all year we've had just five. Yeah. I like it. I mean, we can't go any worse than we own five.

That's right. Hey, can you do your tease? I think you were. Oh, yes like it. I mean, we can't go any worse than 0-5. That's right. Hey, can you do your tease? I think you were – Oh, yes. Okay. So the tease that I like is Arizona minus six to pick them. I think Arizona will beat the Eagles. The Colts are minus seven down to minus one against the Texans.

Feels pretty good there. And the Chargers plus nine. Chargers don't lose games by a lot of points. As bad as they might be, they are able to come down the field and score a bunch. I feel like that is kind of the sweet spot for where a good teaser would be. If you're looking at sides,

I mean, you could play with totals, of course, but that's where, and like Sam Darnold under 202 yards was the number I got. I don't know if that's going to be the number that you guys can get. And I think Dalvin Cook under is a pretty good bet as well. So yeah, there's a lot to do.

Yeah. Maybe the Packers. That'd be a nice tease candidate too. Yeah. Yeah. Down to, yeah. Down to,

down to yeah. Down to two and a half. So, but yeah, I think, I think that's a good, a good little teaser. That Sam Darrow one is really nice.

I'm going to have to go look for that one. Oh, it's a lot of fun. Yeah. I like it a lot. So, all right guys. Well, yeah, I think that's a good little teaser. That Sam Darnold one is really nice. I'm going to have to go look for that one. Oh, it's a lot of fun. Yeah, I like it a lot. So, all right, guys. Well, look, we're climbing up. We're at 46% now. We were at, like, 42 after a couple bad weeks. So, we're going to get there, buddy.

We're slowly making our way up there. All right, guys. Have a great weekend of football. Talk to you guys next week. Good luck this weekend. Enjoy football.