Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 16

Episode Date: December 24, 2020

Matt and Geoff are back for week 16 with their 5 favorite SuperContest plays. The Rams look to continue their dominance over the Seahawks, the Cowboys will try to slow down Jalen Hurts, and will the Browns be looking past the Jets? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, December 24th. We're coming off a 3-3-1 week. An inch closer to 500. We're digging out. We're making it happen, Matt. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart New Hour weekend gambling preview. We're going to give you all sorts of nuggets, too.

Don't worry. The other nuggets hit almost more sometimes, Matt. We're going to give you five sides. We had our best week in a long time the chiefs kind of got us at the end that ended up pushing us uh to three three and one but nonetheless man how you doing buddy i'm good three one and one i think you said three three and one three one and one three one which is absolutely the kind of number that we would uh we'd frame that we'd celebrate that given where we've been year, we've been in the dog, the pits

and we're back. We'll take the push with the Chiefs. That one was so disappointing. It felt like they could have covered that one a million different ways, but hey, we'll take it. We'll take it. All right. Let's dig in this week. We have a Friday game this week for

Christmas. I think we have some Saturday games, three Saturday games this week. for um for christmas i think we have some saturday games three saturday games this week and then we'll go to sunday yeah so um big weekend for the washington football team i'm sure we'll talk about that game at some point i'm excited too let's start with the christmas game uh that is the minnesota vikings at the new orleans saints saints laying seven. Oh, man. This line is just so crummy to me. Yeah. If it was seven and a half or six and a half, I think we'd be over. The Saints or Vikings.

A couple of things worry me about the Vikings. They haven't covered a five straight, which is important. But a lot of those games, they were the favorite, right? They weren't a big underdog like they are this weekend. But there's something about them where they're just not playing consistent football. Then you have the Saints, who covered, I guess, pushed last weekend, maybe covered depending on the line you got. Drew Brees did not look terribly great last weekend,

but the fourth quarter he played much better. So I just don't know what we're getting from these teams, and it would worry me to put money on kind of a number at seven that don't feel like there's much value in. What's your take on this game? It's my exact same take for better or worse. Yeah, Minnesota, weirdly much better on the road this year. Four and two against the spread on the road. Two and six at home.

One of those two road non-covers was that tampa loss where dan bailey shit his pants um the the game last week for for new orleans you know i don't know if they if that's sort of a good sign that they were able to push and or cover against the chiefs they had such a bizarre fluky uh comeback and yeah it looked like the chiefs just kind of ran out of gas. Um, I was leaning towards the Vikings if we were getting the seven and a half, but we're not. Um, so I I'm with you on a pass that the best stat I saw about this game,

by the way, though, Kirk Cousins six and 14 against the spread, not on Sundays, just a great stat from the action network. So I don't know. This just, this just feels like a pass.

Yeah. Weirdly enough. Cousins has played Drew Brees four times, including the playoffs. He's averaging Cousins' 311 yards in those games, 10 to 1 touchdown interception ratio. Drew Brees playing Cousins only averages 230 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions. Really odd.

Very strange. it means something um i think the vikings if you get the seven and a half are the play but at seven i think we stay away yeah that's interesting i mean these teams have so much baggage together i didn't even consider that in my preview but uh yeah that's a pass for us um next up are the saturday games the first one oh god the buccaneers nine and a half is the number we're getting in the westgate super contest they are nine and a half point favorites at the detroit lions straight pass homie there is nothing about this game that gets you excited the lions right now don't even have a coaching staff they're like entire coaching staff has COVID.

They can't even coach. I mean, they might have player coaches out there. They might call Matt Patricia back up to come coach the defense. But the Buccaneers, how do you trust the Bucs? They scored zero points in Atlanta the first half. Scored 31 the second half. I feel like there's a thousand jillion different bets to make than this one right here.

Yep. I'm with you let's not waste our time uh what a disgusting game uh the next one is the battle of arizona the 49ers plus five at the cardinals it's sort of a neutral site game i guess it's a neutral site game um look this one's this one's pretty simple to me um the niners have have given up right i mean like they're they're done for the year. They're starting Josh Rosen, a quarterback, this weekend. C.J. Bethard, who is starting quarterback for the Niners this weekend?

They have not played good football recently, right? They're just kind of skating by. And the Cardinals, believe it or not, man, we talked about Murray getting a little healthier. He threw for 400 yards this weekend. Look, the Niners said they beat the Rams, right, a few weeks ago. Since then, they lost 10 to Buffalo, 8 to Washington, and lost by 8 to Dallas.

All the Cardinals have done, they beat the Giants, who, you know, whatever. But they played pretty well against Philly on offense, especially. Their defense is getting a little bit better. They had some rough patches, but they got some guys back healthy. But Kyler Murray, the last two weeks, the percent of his passing attempts on the run increased to basically 1-5, which is good for him.

He's completed 183 yards, two touchdowns, more play action the last couple of weeks. Again, which is improvement he's more he's healthier he's run the football um i really think arizona's the play here the number is not bad when they officially announced rosen as the quarterback his number's gonna climb to seven well it looks like it's still gonna be bettered i think at least for now uh with rosen potentially as the backup what's funny is like i we have a mutual friend our friend alex hyacinth who i used to tell i i like bethard i i mean i also like rosen coming out of college

so what do i know but i i don't think bethard's terrible i was looking at this one and i thought the only way to play this would be san francisco because they're just a tough they're just a tough team but like i think you know we said this when there was last week of the week before it doesn't matter they're one in six against the spread in their last seven because their roster is just torn to pieces i i don't understand yeah how they're such an outlier with every other team in the league this year it's partially some bad luck they must be maybe doing something wrong in practice i don't know um but i guess i could i could buy the cardinals here i mean i i could they they so since they played week one since week one the niners have a new quarterback their third a new running back a new tight end a new defensive end a new defensive tackle like they're just

a wreck right now and the cardinals look i, look, I don't trust Kingsbury. I think he's not that good of a coach. I think that Murray makes up for a lot of his deficiencies. But again, we're seeing Murray kind of get back to what he does well. And they're running the ball better with Murray. And I just think they're kind of primed to continue this run to the playoffs. So I'm going with Arizona. I think this makes sense.

I think a lot of us have gotten burned by the Cardinals and are afraid to take them. So this now feels like it's too low. So I'm with you. All right, let's do it. Nicely done. I like that one. Okay. Moving on to the late game on Saturday.

The dolphins are at the Raiders in Las Vegas, the unflappable dolphins. They're laying three. Okay. As of now, we don't know who's the quarterback is for the Raiders. So car practice today. Fully.

They said, I don't think he'll play, but we'll find out. Even if he does play, how good is he going to be? This one's interesting because I really do like the Dolphins here, but I'm kind of worried everyone else does. But I'm going to make a case for the Dolphins, Matt. You let me know if I'm onto something. The last five games for the Raiders defensively,

and we know the dolphins offensively are not that good we talked about this right even we bet them last week knowing that they're that kind of the fade of the of the patriots defense but here we're going to fade the raiders defense in my opinion last five games raiders defense selling 36 points per game and overall as a team they're negative seven in turnover margin and the Dolphins rushed for 250 yards last weekend the Raiders still have a lot of defenders out they're injured and one area where the Dolphins are really good is play action pass and the Raiders are fifth worst in the NFL at play action pass they allow 70 completion rate on play action pass nine yards per attempt and nine touchdowns

no interceptions so you have a Dolphins attack that wants to run the football, protect to a play-action pass a little bit. Hopefully some of their skilled players are back. And on that side of the ball, I feel really good. On the other side, I got a Dolphins defense since week five. Number one in the NFL in turnover margin. Number one in the NFL in points per game allowed. Number two in the NFL in passing defense.

I just think the Raiders are on the down. Dolphins on the up. one in the NFL and points per game allowed number two in the NFL and passing defense. I, I just think the Raiders are like on the down dolphins on the up. I worry about Tua again. I think their offensive dolphins, like, uh, I'm not quite sure. I think a lot of money is going to be on the dolphins here,

which I don't, I don't quite like as well. Um, but if it's Mariota, especially Mariota, we have to play the dolphins here. I guess so. I mean,

Mariota actually looks pretty damn good. Yeah. Potentially better than Cardiff. But now they've watched him for a game. The Chargers did not prepare to face the read option. They didn't prepare for that. Now the Dolphins have a plan to prepare for Mariota. Right.

And they're also the Chargers. Big split here. The pros are all over the Raiders. 77% of the bets are on the dolphins 47 of the money on the raiders that's a 24 point differential yeah i mean look we're gonna talk about all these games so when we sort of go through the week this week there's all these teams that are home dogs and you know that you know it most of the time you should probably be leaning towards these home dogs to cover games some of them aren't gonna hit look miami's been unbelievable uh their last 14 i think they're 11 and 3 against the spread

yeah they're just a safe bet like you know the Raiders defense is really banged up and they've just kind of been in a free fall. This just this just feels fishy to me for some reason. I'm willing to consider the Dolphins. It's fun to bet on them. But I don't know. There's there's just something about this that like the the the pro Joe thing is making me a little worried. All right, we can. Well, let's just leave it as a maybe then.

Okay. Do you love this one i mean i if you're strong on it i know it's one that i i love only a few more left in this thing so like this is one i just have considered putting in okay i'm just trying to get to five games and we'll figure out how we get to the end okay so that's a maybe we've got one in the tank already with the cardinals um moving on to speaking of the Chargers. They're hosting the Broncos. The Chargers are three-point favorites. This is a Sunday early game, I think.

Actually, it's a late game. Sorry, I don't know why it's first on the contest card, but it is a four-fuck game. It's a four or five game. Oh, man. I mean, there's all this money in the Chargers minus three, there's no way we can take the chargers here no you absolutely would take the broncos here um for a couple of reasons this one i have so many good trends on this one jeff first of all the chargers 414 and one against the spread is a home favorite in the last three seasons since

they got to la 920 and one against the spread is a home favorite uh sorry in the last that's in the last four seasons yeah denver four and one against the spread against teams with losing records this season denver is not a good team but each time they've played a rookie quarterback this year including justin herbert they've won i think you know with the vic fang defense, they tend to have this wacky scheme that I think takes a veteran to kind of decipher. And Denver's been good on the road this year. They're 5-2 on the road against the spread. I feel like they tend to win these AFC West games.

And the Chargers, yeah, okay, they've put some nice results together lately. But I still am not a big believer in them. I think Denver could take it. Interesting here. I hadn't even thought about this game yet because I didn't think we'd have a play on it. So you feel good about Denver here? I feel okay.

I mean, if we're going to be playing this game, I think it would be Denver. It definitely would be Denver because I'm not laying my money on the Chargers as a favorite in this situation. That's interesting. All right, man, the Broncos, I mean, maybe we're looking at their game the other night

and looking at the reason why we're off this team. Denver won earlier in the season by a point. The Chargers were favored by three on the road. All right, I'm okay i put a maybe on the broncos here let's call it a maybe i i don't feel like passionate about it but i do feel like uh i do feel like they're on the right side um oh boy here it comes jeff this is the game i've been dreading us discussing it's you know what you know what i'm about to do. It's the Browns playing 9.5 at the now not winless New York Jets. Okay.

We're going to do it. We're taking the Jets plus 9.5. And you know why. You know why we're doing it. I'm right on this. I'm with you. First of all, road favorites over touchdown this year. 9-18 against the spread.

We saw two last week. Was it two last week? No, we saw two big upsets. We saw the Pittsburgh Steelers, by the way, lose to Cincinnati. That makes it 9-18 right now. So that's on the season. But here's why. It's not even about the Jets this week.

It's about Week 17, okay? The Browns will play the Steelers at home in Week 17 for the division. Pittsburgh's not going to beat the Colts this weekend. The Browns will beat the Jets, but I think the Jets will cover the game. This is the biggest home game the Browns have had since they came back to Cleveland. There's no doubt about it. It's the biggest game they've had. They have not won division since 1989.

This is the biggest home game they will have. They will flex this game to Sunday Night Football. They'll get all the treatment. The winner of that game, Brown Steelers Week 17, will win the division. Okay? And this is a young football team. It's the only team that has not started someone over 30 years old this season. They're going to go into New York.

I know what's going to happen. We've seen this before. They're going to get through the game. Just get through the game. Get through the game. Jets have covered three or four at home covered four of the last six jets are not good by any stretch of the imagination but the weight is lifted off of them now as far as like trying to be perfect to try to not be perfect to go on 16 but like try to that weight is off them trying to win these games now right kind of play looser and freer and either browns are back on the road now after a kind of a lackluster win

they're back actually the same stadium back at MetLife um I just think it's going to be an ugly game Browns just sneak by I don't love it here but I love the spot the Jets are in where the Browns in this monster look ahead into week 17. I'm with you. I hate that we're going to do it, but we have to. One of the clues here is this opened at 10 and you know that nobody is betting on the Jets, but it's moved a little bit towards the Jets. Mayfield's two and six is a road favorite. This is the biggest road favorite spread for Cleveland since 1976. So look, I don't love that we're not getting the 10. But, you know, one more thing, Cleveland two and eight against the spread against the AFC this year. It's they're great against the NFC. It's not great against anybody else. This is the smart

play. Like this is when you're when you're picking five games every week, you got to pick the Jets once in a while. And this is the spot. I agree with you. Yeah. I think it's just, again, it's just, it's, I want to make it very clear. It's not like we love the Jets more than the Browns here. It's the look, it's the part of like, all week we're talking about this. Oh my God.

Brown Steelers, week 17. It's going to happen. And that, to me, is the worry if you are betting on the Browns in this game. Yeah. Look, that game's going to be – Seven points, eight points. Like, that's probably what's going to happen here. But the Jets will keep it close.

Yeah. So, all right, good. Let's move along. I like it. Okay. Another – oh, God, another crappy team, the Bengals, are going to Houston. The Sean Watson and the Texans favored by eight points. Do we have to talk about this game?

Is this a game that we need to discuss? No. No. I mean, maybe the Bengals plus 14 and a tease, maybe? I don't know. I think they were really fired up for the Steelers. I do not expect them to have the same attitude this weekend. Yeah, this is a mess.

This is one of the biggest spreads of Watson's career, weirdly, as a favorite. Yeah, strange. Okay, moving on to a really good game. This is a game we're going to learn a lot from. The Colts are one-and-a-half-point road favorites at Pittsburgh. Who could have imagined that line a few weeks ago? Oh, boy. I'm not terribly

worried about the line moving very much. It did not move through big numbers, right? It moved about four points from the Steelers to the Colts. Yeah, bouncing back and forth. I like the under in this game more than anything else. I think the play is the Colts if we're taking this game. The thing about the Steelers' offense, Matt,

is that they've known the issues now for three weeks and haven't fixed it. So they're not going to fix it against this Colts' defense. Big Ben has thrown nine of his ten interceptions with no pressure, against no pressure. The Colts are a zone team. They don't pressure very much. He's thrown seven touchdowns

and six interceptions against zone. Big Ben throws a bunch of his picks against zone. It just feels like a bad matchup for them. On the flip side, yeah, Pittsburgh's defense is good, but the Colts have the offensive line to keep this game close, to run the football, to move the ball. The Sears' injuries on defense keep adding up.

I don't know, man. I don't feel great about taking Phillip rivers as a road favorite. It's a short road favorite, but I think the Colts is the play here, man. I feel a little bit on an Island with this one, because I feel like I'm the only person in the world that likes Pittsburgh. This opened at two and a half for Pittsburgh. You mentioned it's moved around a lot. I'm the only person in the world that likes Pittsburgh. This opened at two and a half for Pittsburgh. You mentioned it's moved around a lot.

It's in some places it opened at three, which I think tells you a little bit of what Vegas thinks. They probably didn't predict they'd lose the Bengals, obviously last week. Look, we've talked about how Pittsburgh never plays well against bad teams under Mike Tomlin. And I think they've just sort of regressed to the mean a little bit. But this is one where like,

you can take all the trends you want, but I sort of just want to think about it this way. This is Phillip Rivers in the cold on the road. Pittsburgh's lost three in a row. Indies covered their last four games. Pittsburgh hasn't covered their last four. This just feels like one of those games where Pittsburgh could potentially bounce back. The other thing about the Colts, they have two wins against playoff teams this year. The Packers in

that crazy overtime game that they should have lost and the Titans who they split with. And Pittsburgh, you know, this is going to be the toughest team that the Colts have played. And I think that Pittsburgh is much closer to a 12-4 team than like a fluky 9-7 team that just got hot. James Conner should be back. That should help that offense a bit. I don't know. I just don't see Pittsburgh losing the fourth in a row and doing it at home. I thought the same thing against Buffalo.

I thought the same thing against Cincinnati. I thought the same thing against Cincinnati. Like, I understand what you're saying, but I can't put Pittsburgh as one of my five teams I'm betting on this weekend. I understand you're on an island there, but I think we have better games here. I get what you're saying. They're supposed to be playing better,

but they haven't. That's my point, right? They're supposed to. They're supposed to be better. They're supposed to have improved their offense, but haven't. That's my point, right? They're supposed to. They're supposed to be better. They're supposed to have improved their offense, but they're not doing it now. And that's my concern is, yeah, what you said is great. Oh, there's no way they lose four in a row. They lose at home. But there was no way they should have lost last weekend either.

Another short week. Phillip Rivers in the cold is interesting. He actually has played well late in the season in Kansas City, weirdly enough. But I think we just stay away from this game it checks out if we're if we're not on the same side we're passing on it um yeah i'm curious what's gonna happen there uh because i like i'm saying all these things but it doesn't match with how i feel like i i don't trust pittsburgh um it's just sort of a it's just sort of a bet on tomlin and rothlisberger to turn this around yeah but man we keep doing that.

It's not working. Yeah, well, let's pass on it. I'm glad. This is why we do this. This is, you know, we're the yin and the yang. You got to talk it through. That's right. That's right.

Oh, God. Maybe we'll be in alignment on this one. I don't know what to root for. The Bears, Mitch Trubisky's Bears, are seven and a half point road favorites at jacksonville oh yikes are we doing it i feel like we just took this bet i don't want to i just i'd rather i take that i like the jets more than jacksonville on the spot um but i kind of think you have to play jacksonville right i i don't think we i mean we don't have to do anything but it is noteworthy that this

currently Jacksonville is getting 32% of the bets and 91% of the money because this is such a pro play for I mean first of all the Bears 0-5 in their last five is favorites 3-10 against the spread is favorites they've actually failed to cover 8 straight

is a favorite it It's crazy. And the other problem is the Jaguars with Minshew are 0-6 against the spread. So, like, one of these has to give. I mean, do you have a feel? Would you actually consider taking Jacksonville here? No. All right. So let's not even discuss it.

I consider that. You remember we took them against the Titans. I think they're trying to actively tank now that they know they can have the number one pick. But the Bears on the road, it would be very Bears to lose this game. Bears, like now that they're in the playoff contention, just blow this to Jacksonville somehow. All right, let's pass to that. We're already taking the Jets, so we're not doing the Jags too. Okay, what is next on our list?

Uh, okay. This is, this is my team. The Washington football team are two and a half point favorites, uh, against the Panthers. Did you and,

uh, and Dwayne Haskins, you guys meet the strip club together or do you take separate cars? I have too much to lose to go to a strip club with, uh, no mask, especially after a loss. What is he doing?

What is he doing? Stripped of his captainship today. Just silly, just silly stuff. I think we cannot make a bet on this until we know if Alex Smith is playing or not. Yep. This is an Alex Smith number, right? And if Alex Smith is playing,

then I think you take the Washington football team here. The Panthers have won one out of their last nine games. I know Teddy Bridgewater covers his bunch as an underdog, but a lot of those times they're double-digit like dogs

or they're closing over touchdown. Dog, they've been bad this year. This is not that, right? They're within a field goal here. If Alex Smith is back, Washington is highly motivated. They played well with Alex Smith. The Panthers cannot keep up just with players.

I think this is a clear Washington football team play if Alex Smith is in the lineup. Yeah. Gibson practiced today, Wednesday. This is one of those where I would feel good by adding on Saturday. Like, okay, Alex Smith is for surely playing two and a half. I feel like that's the right spot to be.

Yeah. Me too. Same page. That's, that's a solid, maybe. Yeah. Alex Smith hasn't, hasn't not covered this season when he started. He's been great. He's been great.

He's been absolutely great. Carolina six and one is a road dog this year. Kind of remarkable. Okay. Well, that's a maybe. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide.

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Let's move to another NFC East team, the Giants. Plus 10.5 at Baltimore. Good Lord. I kind of really like Baltimore. Oh, wow. Okay. Yeah. I think they're playing some really good football right now.

And they're plus 900-ish to win the AFC. They're not even in the playoffs right now, by the way. But they're playing... I think that fourth down, Lamar Jackson off the sidelines touchdown against the Browns kind of rejuvenated them into thinking they can do some good things again. They've gone healthy on defense, right? They got guys back from COVID, starting to play better on defense,

starting to dial things up again. The run game, the offensive line, they've had issues on the offensive line. It's now sort of kind of gelling back together again. Lamar's more confident passing the ball better. And I just think they're in this mode now where they're like that. They're like the Titans from last year, right? They kind of come on hot at the end of the season. No one really takes them seriously.

And then, boom, it's like, oh're you know they're in the the afc championship game i don't know if i trust lamar quite yet to do that but the the giants have been getting better defensively sure but offensively they're still a wreck even daniel jones plays the the ravens are going to blitz the heck of daniel jones last two games, Lamar Jackson is averaging two yards more per pass attempt. His pass rating is higher. He's rushed for almost 30 yards more per game. And he's just, he's the last three weeks, I should say, last three weeks, I should say.

Number one in the NFL yards per attempt, number one in yards per carry. He's just starting to play like lamar jackson again and the giants cannot cannot stop him if that's the case i this one was not on my radar um partially because lamar is a home favorite uh 7 and 12 against the spread in his career um i was thinking like you know you would maybe be interested in the giants if i but i didn't think that because a we don't bet the giants would be it's probably colt mccoy um i don't know that's just that's a dead number ten and a half i'm willing to consider it in our next pass but it's i mean a lot of things can go wrong and you could still not cover that one A lot of things can go wrong, and you can still not cover that one.

Yeah. They have scored 40 points per game in their last three games as Baltimore. Yeah. Well, it was three weeks ago where everyone was saying the Giants had the best defense in the NFC. We told people they did not. Yes, we did. It's a big number, but this might be one we wait to see who plays quarterback. If it's Colt McCoy, it's a no-brainer in my opinion. Yeah. Okay. I'm willing to advance it um because you know we it's not like we're flooded with great choices this week oh we we are coming up don't worry

all right well maybe it's here uh your Kansas City Chiefs are hosting the Atlanta Falcons the Chiefs are laying 11 points. Yeah, I have no feel for this game other than I think this is like a Falcons plus 11 or nothing game. Yeah, for sure. The Chiefs don't need this game. They no need to play hard in this game. Not that the Falcons do either,

but it's going to be like a boring, like 24-20 Chiefs win. Like they're not going to play hard in this game. Yeah. I'm not betting on Atlanta either though. All right, right. boring like 24 20 chiefs win like they're not going to play hard in this game yeah i'm not betting on atlanta either though so all right right we haven't we haven't no falcons policy on this show i advise everyone on earth to follow suit uh matt ryan's only been a double digit underdog six times in his career which is crazy he's five and one against the spread in those wow uh chiefs haven't covered their last six, but Atlanta is just one of those teams. They could just not

even show up to this game, so it's hard to trust them. But it would be Atlanta if you're playing this. Yeah. Chiefs just have to beat... I mean, Chiefs win this weekend. They're into... They get home-filled throughout. I mean, they're just going to do their best to just win and get out of there.

Yeah. See what Le'Veon Bell can do as the future back. Okay. Let's move on to a very interesting game here. The LA Rams coming off a humiliating loss to the Jets are going to Seattle. Seattle is a short home favorite, one and a half points. When the Rams lost, I texted you and said, we're taking the Rams next week.

And we're taking the Rams this week, guys. 100%. So let's talk about the reasons why. One, they've won five of the last six against Seattle. And we've talked about this in the NFC West specifically. There just are a lot of trends that just, the Niners beat the Rams. They just beat them. The Rams beat the Seahawks.

It just happens. Arizona plays Seattle all the time. That's just kind of the way it goes. But more than that, awful loss. Especially, this is an embarrassing loss, but awful loss this season. Rams are 4-0, plus 39 in point differential. They're plus 10 in sack differential and plus four in turnover margin. They just play much better off a loss.

And they play better on the road, by the way. A lot of their lackluster games this year, Giants, Jets, Bears, it's kind of just like home at SoFi Stadium. Even for the Chargers this year, like no one scores points Bears. It's kind of just like home. So is SoFi Stadium. Even for the Chargers this year. Like, no one scores points there. It's boring. And so now they go back on the road to Seattle, and they have to win this game,

and they're off an embarrassing loss. But let's talk about some other reasons why I like this. The Rams' defense, second in sacks, right? Third in pressure rate. Seahawks' offensive line, 27th in sacks. Wow. Like, the offensive line is a little bit better, but Aaron Donald tortures this offensive line. He torturesks offensive line 27th and sacks it out. The offensive line is a little bit better, but Aaron Donald tortures this offensive line.

He tortures this offensive line. They're number one in the NFL, the Rams are, in deep passing defense. And we know that Seattle's offense generates a lot of explosion from the deep pass. Obviously, Rams are really good at that. Russell Wilson's one of three in his career against number one pass defense in the NFL.

Just doesn't play well against them. On the flip side, everyone's like, Seattle's defense is playing better, playing better, playing better. Sure. Do you know the last four quarterbacks they played? That's the whole NFC East, right? Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins. Yeah.

This is the first world quarterback they're playing in a long time. I think the Rams here is 1,000% to play. I love the Rams in this spot. I'm with you. I mean, for mostly reasons you already laid out. Seattle's offense, I mean, last week, they probably should have lost to Washington last week. If that was anyone but Dwayne Haskins, who actually did play well in the fourth quarter, they probably should have lost to Washington last week. If that was anyone,

but Dwayne Haskins who actually did play well in the fourth quarter, they probably would have lost. And the Rams, like the Rams didn't show up for a half and almost one. I mean, yes, it's the jets, but like,

there's a lot going on in that game. And you know, the jets, they were going to win a game. Seattle hasn't had a 30 point game other than that blowout against the jets since November 1st. And the Rams, you know, they sleepwalked through a game and got to 20 last week. I think they just have an easier time scoring lately.

You mentioned the pressure in the O-line. I think it's a tough matchup for Seattle. And you can't buy the Rams any lower. So let's do it. Yeah, this line has moved obviously so much. I have a really nerdy stat that i can pull up right here that just it's very like specific to this game i'm gonna pull up because it's kind of fun to like if you need one more cool thing to tell your friends about this game um the rams

align a lot of their receivers in those tight formations right those condensed bunch formations and the seahawks defense specifically against wide receivers that line up in that tight alignment, they're fifth worst in the NFL, like guarding those guys. So like the Rams offense is set up, the most receiving yards in tight alignment this year in the NFL is Robert Woods and Cooper Cup. Seattle this year has allowed three touchdowns and 115 passer rating to those players in that tight alignment. Second most yards per attempt allowed in that tight alignment. Second most yards per attempt, allowing that tight alignment.

So the Rams just offensively are set up well against the Seahawks. Does that make sense? Yeah, it does. That means if you're in your fantasy finals, you should probably be playing Robert Woods this week. Yeah. So it's good info to have.

That's great. Nice one, Jeff. Well, I'm all over that one with you um that'll be a fun one um okay an ugly game uh in the nfc east uh fool boy the eagles are two and a half point road favorites all of a sudden at dallas um what do you think i love the over in this game by what's like 49 and a like 49 and a half, 50. I just think both teams. I think we know the Cowboys just bet their overs all the time. It makes a lot of sense.

I have no feel for this game. Andy Dalton's been better. He's covered three out of the last five games. He's got 10 touchdowns, a three interception ratio. You know, they're doing – Tony Pollard's playing better. Like, they're just playing better defensively, just a little bit better. Philly 0-5 against the spread their last five road games, which, look, that's one with Jalen Hurts.

And, look, that game last weekend should not have been close. The Cardinals had two red zone turnovers in that game. Otherwise, that game is a blowout, right? They score 50 points almost in that game or 47 points without that. So I think the play here is probably dallas but i wish it was plus three yeah um i like dallas uh for a few reasons you mentioned that they've they started the year oh and eight against the spread so one of the things i've just sort of like relearned this year is like you get in this habit early in the season of like you feel

like you've learned something because it happens the same time eight time the same thing eight times in a row but now all of a sudden they've uh they've covered four of the last six like I think you mentioned they've covered six straight as a home dog um this to me just feels like you know if the Eagles didn't have that sort of like miraculous win against the Saints a few weeks ago which was against Taysom Hill um in a game where nobody had any tape on Hurts. Like, wouldn't this be Dallas's a favorite? Like, I feel like we're still kind of over inflating Hurts because of one game. And I think this Pollard thing is huge.

I think two player developments for Dallas are huge. First is getting Trayvon Diggs back. He's their true number one corner their defense looks a little bit more alive with him in there um and getting Tony Pollard involved like he he looks like Ezekiel Elliott did when Zeke was a rookie like all of a sudden like their whole offense exploded with him in there last week um Elliott either will not play or will be rested and probably do a little bit of a share either way that's probably good for dallas um i don't know i think these teams are about even and this

is a chance to fade a rookie quarterback as a road favorite so the line opened at eagles favored by two and jumped all i mean eagles two point dogs and ran all the way e Eagles minus 2.5. So moved 4.5 points. For what reason? People just like Hurts. Which again, he played okay in that game. He played well, but they still lost by 6, and they should have lost by 20. Yeah, they should have. That's a great point.

And 90% of the money is on the Eagles as a road favorite, which is always a red flag. All right, Dallas plus a great point. And 90% of the money is on the Eagles as a road favorite, which is always a red flag. All right, Dallas plus two and a half. Let's do it. I wish plus three would have been better, but I'll take two and a half. Yeah, let's advance it. You know, it's still Dallas.

And we've still got a couple more games here and maybe we'll like some of those. Two great games to wrap it up. The Sunday night game is Tennessee at Green Bay. Green Bay is laying three. Oh, boy. The over is like 56. I would take the Packers team total over, if you could find it, by the way.

It's Wednesday. They might not have those. Titans last in the NFL in defense on third down and pressure on the quarterback. Rodgers is going to have a field day. He's going to throw for so many yards. The Titans allow 276 yards passing per game. The Packers are going to score at will.

The flip side is the Titans are probably going to score at will too because they can run the football and the Packers aren't very good at running the football. Weirdly enough, the Packers are actually good on defense against a stacked box. When they stack the box, which Henry's number one, the NFL and like rushing yards and,

and rush attempts and touchdowns at the stack box. The one thing I look at here, the why I would lean toward the Packers. I don't feel great about it. Is that if I need a defense to get a stop, the Packers defense can get one in the Titans defense. Can't. Yeah,

but I don't feel great about it. I don't, I don't, I don't know if we, I don't I don't I don't know if we I don't feel like playing this one but I do lean Packers there's one open at Packers favorite by five come all the way down now to three I I don't know if it even gets under three by kickoff time again we're recording this Wednesday night I I lean very heavily to the Packers here in minus three yeah it seems like this just moved um this was three and a half all

day and now it's down to three for the contest it might mean it keeps going i mean there's part of me that just says like you don't get that many chances in in betting sports to just do the like hey it's aaron rogers at home laying a field goal like you know sometimes you just gotta do that right he's really good in prime time this is the kind of game they always win but uh but the thing that scares me is tennessee really good in uh when they're slight fate when they're slight dogs they're 12 and 5 against the spread when they're getting at least three under free ball uh that goes to 14 and 6 in the playoffs and green bay's run defense is really suspect um they give up you mentioned the thing about the stack of the box is interesting, but they still give up about four and a half yards of carry.

And the other thing with Green Bay that's just worrisome is they don't seem to close games. And when you look at just the way these teams compete, like Tennessee is never out of a game. They've been in games this year where they're down by 20, and then all of a sudden they're roaring back. They're really physical and tough. And Green Bay just has this habit of kind of coasting. And I just think Tennessee is, I don't like betting against them right now. Like they're just tough and it's a tough matchup. I think it could be a lot of points and it just comes down to a late score. And Green Bay also hasn't played anyone. I feel like that's something that we kind of keep talking about with some of these teams but you know they don't have a ton of you know marquee wins over good competition

and tennessee's you know plays in a tough division uh i don't know this it's a long way of saying i don't really know what to do here yeah i think it's a long way of saying we have much better plays yeah all right i think a packers team total look in that here. Yeah, I think that's a long way of saying we have much better plays. Yeah. All right. I think a Packers team total, look in that direction. I think that'd be a good bet. Yeah. So let's go one more game here.

I'm curious what your thoughts are on this game. Yeah. So it's the Monday Night Game. It's Buffalo, New England. Good for you, Buffalo. You're laying seven at New England. You're the AFC East champs, finally. Let's go.

This is a great teaser game for Buffalo to go from 7-1. Yep. At 7, I don't like it very much. Talked about it. Favorites of a touchdown or more this year, 9-18 on the road. I don't know if I'm still looking at New England like they have Tom Brady there. 99% of the money is on Buffalo in this game. I think we had better plays, but I think you're trying to get me on Buffalo here. You know me so well.

I mean, what is this new england team right now without stefan gilmore with cam newton playing the way he is like i get it like every single impulse that i have and that all of us have is wow buffalo is a road favorite new england's everyone's counted them out they're a home dog but again isn't aren't we aren't we playing the laundry here if you're if you're on new england they're just not the same team they're six and eight against the spread this season they're never under 500 against the spread they're oh and four with the rest advantage how weird is that like that's usually like a sign of a good coach and buffalo every single week the last six weeks two things happen they cover and it's

and the score goes over so is this the one where new england's going to be able to keep up or stop buffalo buffalo i get they've already wrapped up the division but like this game means so much to them to stomp all over the patriots who've tortured them for a decade and a half oh yeah this is a really big spot for Buffalo. And I think, you know, it's nice. They beat Pittsburgh.

It's nice. They've won all these games. I think they would trade any of those other games for this one. I, the Buffalo's proven themselves time and time again this year. I don't, I'm not scared of new England's here. I know that could be really stupid and blow up in my face,

but like, I don't know. I just don't see anything encouraging about this new england team i i'm with you the picture of no motivation they have no players no players um but buffalo has not experienced this before winning a division like this. I just worry. Monday Night Football, everyone's talking them up.

I put them in the maybes because I think we can talk through these. I mean, it's not a good play. It's the squarest of square plays. Which we've been burned on this year, man. Constantly. All the trends say not to do this, so we shouldn't bet it but i can't i can't make the case rationally for new england's here i mean you look at all these

oh no no there's no way to do it yeah i mean some of these home dogs are going to cover some of them are hopefully it's the jets but uh yeah i'm on Buffalo. Square or not. Alright, so here's where we go. We have Arizona minus five. So here's the ones we have for sure, right? We have the Jets. They're in. Great. Jets plus nine and a half. Yep.

God, God help us. The Rams are in at plus one and a half, correct? Yep. The Rams are in, right? Plus one and a half? Sold. Cowboys plus one and a half, correct? Yep. The Rams are in, right? Plus one and a half? Sold. Cowboys plus two and a half. Yeah, I'm good with that. I like Arizona minus five. I'm fine with that.

So now we have one left. And the options we came down to are Miami minus three, which we don't know about car playing yet. So that's kind of up in the air. Denver plus three. Baltimore minus 10 and a half, Buffalo minus seven. And what about Washington on Sunday? We don't know if Alex Smith is playing yet.

Right, but okay. So for the purposes of the show, they're out. I think if Alex Smith is playing, I'd feel great playing Washington here. I would too. So this is potentially one we could boot for that yeah oh so we have miami minus three so let's talk miami you know this is like the raiders last stand and if car comes back are they going to be last i just i don't know what quarterback news would get us to make a play. Like if Mariota was in,

I might be, I might be out. Like he looked so he looked, he's a great backup. Like he's kind of Fitzpatrick. He, you know, he just does a bunch of weird stuff,

but the dolphins defense is really good, man. It is good. They've also covered so many games. Like it's at some point it's going to go the other way. I don't Saturday night football to Denver plus three at the, at Los Angeles. Like, at some point, it's going to go the other way. It's Saturday Night Football, too. Denver plus three at Los Angeles. Ugh.

Ugh. I don't know. Baltimore minus ten and a half. Ugh. See, the person doing this show is I truly feel like we should leave this one open right now and see some of the injury news that happens this week. Because if Colt McCoy is playing for the Giants, Baltimore is 100% in. Like, I don't know how you bet on Cole McCoy on the road against Baltimore, who scored 40 points per the last three weeks.

Yeah. If Alex Smith is playing, I'm all over the— Washington, I think, would be in here as a fifth team if Alex Smith is going to play. Yeah. Buffalo minus seven is just out. I can't—I don't think is going to play. Yeah. Well, let's... Buffalo minus seven is just out. I can't. I don't think I can do that.

Fair. And if we end up getting Mike Gusecki back and Parker back for the Dolphins and Mariota's playing, then the Dolphins might be in. I think this is one of those where we just have to wait. Follow me on Twitter at Jeff Schwartz.

We'll put it out there about what our fifth pick is. Yeah. I'm fine with making the Ravens the team to beat for now. Fine. That's our last play for now. So Ravens, so for right now, Arizona minus five, Baltimore minus ten and a half could be replaced.

They're first out. New York Jets plus six and a half. I mean, excuse me, plus nine and a half. Rams plus one and a half. Dallas plus two and a half. I mean, excuse me, plus nine and a half. Rams plus one and a half. Dallas plus two and a half. I like it, dude. We have... So Dallas is a fade to public.

Yep. Rams fade to public. Jets fade to public. Yep. I like it. I like it. All the Rams are on the road, but two home dogs in there. I like it, buddy.

I like it. Me too. Are we sure we don't want to take Jacksonville? Like, just for sure plus seven and a half to be honest with you i didn't do much research on that game because they didn't think we were going to play it at all let me let me uh let me take a deeper dive into that into that old game right there i i mean we might come we might come back to it and want to take jacksonville yeah i don't know i mean we shouldn't take no we shouldn't take the jets that old game right there. I mean, we might come back to it and want to take Jacksonville. Yeah, I don't know.

I mean, we shouldn't take, no, we shouldn't take the Jets and Jacksonville. Forget it. There's so much. Forget it. I'm not pinning our Sunday to watching those. There's so much sharp money on Jacksonville right now. Yeah, of course,

because it's Mr. Biskey laying seven and a half on the road in a must win. Like that's not going to work out. I threw a last minute curve ball at you, but I look there. They're not going to beat any of these teams for now. We'll, we'll take a peek at the,

the COVID reports later in the week. So yeah. Why don't we leave it with these five? Okay. We're good. All right, guys. Check back this week on Twitter at Jeff Schwartz.

I'll post the, the, the, the final list. We're making our way back, buddy. Making our way back to week on Twitter at Jeff Schwartz. I'll post the final list. We're making our way back, buddy. Making our way back to the top. We're doing it, man. All right, everyone.

Merry Christmas. Have a great holiday. Enjoy the football this week. We'll be back to break it down on Tuesday morning with me and Gabe or Matt. I'm Jeff Schwartz. This is Jeff Schwartz, Smarter Than You. Talk to you guys on Tuesday.