Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 17

Episode Date: December 31, 2020

With playoff spots on the line around the league and Matt and Geoff surging back to .500, the guys take a look around the league for the last time in the 2020 regular season to find their favorite 5 SuperContest lines. The NFC East is up for grabs, the Packers look to continue dominating the Bears, plus Geoff might finally be betting against the Chiefs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday december 31st we did it guys we made it through 2020 barely and we made it to week 17 nfl season and we made it to the week mat where we can break 500 at least get there we had a stretch in the middle season where we went to 12 and 1 over three game stretch We went 2-12-1 over a three-game stretch. We rectified that. We had four straight winning weeks. We're at 34-37-4. Throw the four losses, the four ties out. So we need to be 3-0-2 to get back to 500 or 4-1 or 5-0. And I feel like Week 17, there are some edges to have.

So we'll talk about all these games. Some games. There's almost nothing to talk about. We might avoid those again. I'm Jeff Schwartz. That's Matt Ford. Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you, Matt.

Biggest weekend for Washington football since when? 2015. I think when they last won the division, so much can happen this week. The NFC East is going to be a mess, which should be perfect to talk about. But, yeah, man, we made it. End of 2020 is here. Only a few hours left by the time you hear this.

It's pretty remarkable. We have 14 playoff spots this year. And entering this weekend, only seven playoff teams, but only one slot is spoken for. That's the Kansas City Chiefs, the number one seed. Everything else up for grabs this weekend. Now, it's very simple. Teams win, they're in.

I mean, Tampa Bay's pretty much the five seed. There's kind of almost no scenario when they're not the five seed. But there's many things to work on, many things to talk about. We'll get to all of it. And again, even though there's some inflated lines, this is the one week we're actually doing it on Wednesday. It might benefit us. We're going to get maybe better numbers than we would otherwise.

Like all year, we basically had bad numbers, I think, for a lot of games because we did this so early in the week. But this year might be a little different. And look, we'll talk about playoff scenarios as we go through this because it's important to talk about that. I've got my playoff simulator up right here for the fine folks at ESPN. So why don't you lead us off, Matt? Let's do it.

Well, we talked about the NFC East, so why don't we just start there? First up, we've got the potential game that could decide the division. The Cowboys are one and a half point road favorites in the Super Contest at your New York Giants. Man, well, let's just get this out of the way. We know Dallas isn't going to win this division. It's just a matter of will Washington break their heart or will Dallas break their own hearts, right? You mean the Giants are not winning the division?

No. Well, the Giants aren't either, but Dallas is certainly not winning this division. It's just like this is – it's so classic, right? Like they come all the way back. They're going to fall on their faces or Washington is going to do it for them, right? I'd like Dallas to cover this game and win though. So like that obviously would rely on Washington. We'll get to them in a little bit.

So let's talk about this game specifically. So we got a good number, a point and a half. It's been anywhere up to almost three some places. So here's – we have two teams in opposite directions, right? We have the Cowboys won their last three games. They're plus 51 in point difference in their last three games. Giants are minus 47 point difference in their last three games. They're plus 51 in point difference in their last three games. Giants are minus 47 point difference in their last three games.

They lost their last three. They played better teams, to be fair. Cowboys plus nine in turnovers. Giants minus two the last three games. And the Giants, by the way, aren't even turning the ball over very much, and they're still losing these games. Imagine if they turn the ball over again.

Dallas' pressure rate on defense has gone up 12 percent the last couple weeks daniel jones number one pressure quarterback in all the nfl andy dalton the last three weeks the last three weeks he's fifth in passer rating third in yards per attempt i feel like dallas is going up giants going down it's under a field goal um how about the cowboys here yeah i think i do too you mentioned the good number um so this kind of blew my mind jeff dallas hasn't lost to the giants straight up since 2016 and in those last seven games where they've won all of those they own the giants they've covered it uh six of the last seven uh dallas's offense looks good and dare we say andy dalton is the best quarterback in the division right now. He is.

And this is not a surprise. He, and Matt, sorry to cut you off, but he he's played in these games before. He has. Dan Jones has not. He's played in big games on the road in the cold,

right? Like everyone talks about the dome team going, and don't play society for years. This, this is not going to affect him. An empty MetLife stadium is not going to affect any adult. Yep. We've always talked about a road teams doing well in MetLife.

And the Giants offense, they haven't scored 20 points since November. And Dallas is averaging 36 the last three weeks. They're healthy. They're more reliable. Lately, they've covered five of the last seven. I think, Dallas, you have to play them with this number here. I'm with you. So let's go, Dallas.

Let's get into our first one getting back to 500. I like it. I like it. All right. Well, here's another one that's interesting. I'm sure a lot's going to change in this one, but right now we're getting the Steelers plus nine at Cleveland for a game with a lot of playoff implications.

Right. So let's start our playoff talk here. Browns have to win to get in. Very simple. The Browns to win to get in. Very simple. The Browns win, they're in. The Steelers are resting Big Ben. They're going to rest as many veterans as they can. Remember, they can't rest all of them.

They can rest a lot of them. Remember, they did not have a proper bye week this season. Their bye week was riddled with, like, COVID news. Like, they didn't get just time off. So during this week, I would imagine that Big Ben's not playing at all in practice this week. Pouncey, Watt, Tuitt, Hayward, all the guys that need rest that are veterans are not going to play much this week. Here's something to consider with this line, though.

It's very specific to this game. So the Browns open about six, six and a half point favorites. So that's assuming that the Steelers were not going to play Big Ben. Big Ben's announced is not playing. Mason Rudolph is playing. The line jumped all the Steelers were not going to play Big Ben. Big Ben's announced is not playing Mason Rudolph. The line jumped all the way up to nine. It's even 10. So if you're betting this game,

the play is Pittsburgh plus nine. I'm not putting it, in my opinion, putting in this, but that's the way to go here if you're betting this game. I agree. I actually like this one for a couple of reasons.

First of all, Pittsburgh does have something to play for here. And, you know, Ben Roethlisberger being out certainly matters, but it's not like they're replacing him with Kendall Hinton, right? They're replacing him with Mason Rudolph who went 5-3 last year, beat some good teams. So, you know, they're putting in a capable quarterback, and Roethlisberger's been pretty shaky the last couple months anyway.

You know, Tomlin earlier said that Ben won't play maybe another player or two. I kind of have a feeling that Pittsburgh might like the chance to boot Cleveland out of the playoffs. There's sort of like a lot of implications at play here, including what could potentially affect the Miami Buffalo game. But Pittsburgh, I do think that winning this game potentially could matter to them. Like the chance to be able to lock up that number two seed, I think could be a bigger deal for them than people think. The Browns, meanwhile, four and six is a favorite against the spread this year.

Six and nine total against the spread this year. They just haven't been as good of a team, I think, as people think from a betting standpoint. And they've had a lot of COVID stuff going through their team, obviously with their receivers last week. A lot of just sort of choppy stuff that raises some red flags. I could see Pittsburgh stealing this one potentially and certainly covering it.

So I think that to ultimately make a bet on this game, we have to figure out who's playing for Cleveland. Like if their wide receivers are not playing, this is a great number. Yep. But if they're all back, then I think Baltimore, I mean, I think the Browns, it's a stay-away game. Like I'm not betting on the Browns here, but I think it's a stay-away game. I really think that for Pittsburgh,

it's more important to just be rested than fight for the two or three seed. Potentially. Especially because if the Browns win this game, they're most likely playing the Steelers again the following week. And the Steelers probably don't want to play to win this game and lose and then lose again the following week. You know, like they want to just give themselves like a way to just say, okay, we didn't play very hard. We then lose again the following week. They want to just give themselves a way to say, okay, we didn't play very hard.

We'll see you guys next week. That's the most likely scenario. Or they just beat them and knock them out. That's possible. They could, but with Mason Rudolph, I don't think they're trying to do so. So I'm okay with a maybe right now, but I've played in these games when they don't count and I think Mason Rudolph

is not very good. Oh, that's fair. Pittsburgh plus nine is a maybe. Yeah, I mean, I can't argue with your experience, obviously, but I will add this. Individually, you know, TJ Watt potentially could wrap up Defensive Player of the Year if he plays in this game and has like a three-sack game and knocks Cleveland out of the playoffs.

That's possible. I don't possible he's gonna play it right now it's he didn't practice today I think uh so it's you know who knows uh guys like Juju Smith-Schuster James Conner both three agents next year like you know some of those yard totals could matter and Pittsburgh needs to get right like they don't want to go limping into the playoffs here so to me this one just felt really off um but I totally understand why we wouldn't take it. The number is off, like we mentioned. The value here is Pittsburgh. The question is whether it's one of our five best this weekend.

Yeah. I'm fine with putting it as a maybe for now. But I think we're going to bomb through the next couple of these with not a ton to say. The first one would be the Jets. The resurgent, unstoppable New York Jets are plus three at New England stay the F away from this

game I mean we have Belichick out here just like just like you know praising Sam Donald like crazy like we're just we're just stay away from this game as far as you can I can't fathom anyone getting an edge on this one.

Hard pass. I'm thinking the same here. The Minnesota Vikings are winning 6.5 at Detroit. Dalvin Cook not playing in this. We don't know what's going on with Stafford. I think this is a just stay away. I mean, there's nothing here of value. Did you see Matthew Stafford's wife

taking shots at the Lions on Instagram? She is a vocal. She's vocal on Instagram. Yes. Where do you think he goes next year? I think the Niners will make a play for him. Oh, interesting.

Like, if you're the Niners, would you trade a first round pick for him or draft a young quarterback? No. Although, maybe they could just trade Garoppolo back to New England for the same second round pick and then he would have some draft capital.

Because that feels like a nice fit too. That'd be really funny. That'd be really funny. It could happen. Yeah. But the Lions, I mean, it just, it just, it just stayed away from this game. I have no feel for it. I didn't even look at it with, you know, with Dalvin Cook not playing,

this game is meaningless for both teams. Vikings haven't covered any of their last six. Unbelievable. Nobody has a ton to play for a year. Moving on to an NFC South game, the Falcons, plus 6.5 at Tampa Bay. The Bucs have, I guess, minor playoff implications here. Bruce Arians did say they were going to try to win this game for whatever that's worth.

Do you like anything here? The minor implications is either being the five or six seed. And that's if the Rams win against the Cardinals and they're playing a backup quarterback. Both teams might be playing backup quarterbacks. Then if Tampa loses, Rams win, the rams would then assuming the saints win and the seahawks win um then you know tampa bay is the the sixth seed i think it's it's what they're most likely the fifth seed let's put it like that um i i was leaning toward tampa this, but because of that reason,

I don't think they have to blow the Falcons out. They just have to win this game. And I think they actually do blow them out. But I don't know, Matt. I don't feel great about taking Tampa here. I don't either. Tampa, amazingly, only 3-7 against the spread against the NFC South in their last 10. And they're also not good at home.

0-3-1. This is a very specific stat. 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four at home versus a team with a losing road record, which Atlanta has. Okay. I don't know if that's actually going to work. It's kind of interesting. So actually not actually going to work. Oh.

Ooh. Okay. Yeah. Daddy did a little outsourcing there. Yeah. I mean, Tampa, look. Yeah, Daddy did a little outsourcing there. Yeah, I mean, Tampa, look, playing for the 5 seed does have some value because you could potentially play Washington, Dallas, or the Giants

instead of New Orleans or something like that, or Seattle. I don't know. I would have liked this at 6 for Tampa, but something about this just doesn't totally feel right. Yeah, I mean, I do think there's a chance that they just kicked the shit out of the falcons yeah um but i don't feel great about it either yeah it still feels like they're kind of coming together like that like they were going forward against detroit last week to prove a point i feel like tampa is still like they are they could use like one more week of you know sort of sharpening it up but i don't know that just

something feels off about that one i'm with you um all right so we're passing there i'm curious what you like here this is uh baltimore is laying 12 and a half at cincy the resurgent cincy bangles um are you on baltimore here i am yeah okay um i i know it's a lot of points on the road and these these aren't they're not covering very well right now i think baltimore's on one man points on the road, and they're not covering very well right now. I think Baltimore's on one, man. They fixed what their problems were. They've actually kind of revamped their offense. They're spreading things out now and running the football.

So giving people different looks. That's why Lamar Jackson's taking off more now. They're getting more rushing yards. Guys are more wide open in the pass game. It's a lot of points, though. But they got to win this game to get in. Like they have to win. And the Bengals,

they're playing a tiny bit better, I guess. But Baltimore's, you know, they're, they're a pretty balanced team. They're ninth in DVOA. Cincinnati's 29th.

You know, they blew out the Bengals earlier this season with, with Joe Burrow in there. And they're five and O against the spread in December so far. I think the Bengals, I think the Ravens are the play here. I feel something off here. You're right. I mean, I think odds are you're probably right.

Baltimore 7-1 against teams with losing records this season, 3-4 against teams with winning records, which will be very helpful come next week. I have this memory of the Bengals blowing a bunch of my biggest bets of the last two weeks of the season the last few years. And I looked into this. I was right. The Bengals, this is crazy, are 16-4-1 against the spread in the last 10 seasons in the last two weeks of the year. Wow.

Very strange statistic. Obviously, that has nothing to do with this week, but it did mean that they won and covered last week. These road division games with seemingly one team that's kind of out of it with nothing to play for and one team laying a ton of points always just kind of scare me. Yeah, I agree. team laying a ton of points always just kind of scare me yeah i agree i think baltimore is the right side but again like i think we can do better than than this team laying 12 i'll put them in the in the maybe category um because i i i think you're right like it just it feels fishy it's a lot of points and bangles have won the last two games like they played better uh but we'll see we're gonna find some more some more facts because the next game I am 1000% all in on.

Me too. I hope we're on the same side. So this is a very critical game in AFC East. The Miami Dolphins are plus two and a half at the scorching hot Buffalo bills. Okay. Here's one taking the Dolphins. Oh,

here's why. Here's why. Here's why. This is one of those where we're going to put it in here and wait until Sunday. I don't think Josh Allen's going to play very much. They have nothing to play for, essentially. If you assume Pittsburgh's going to lose to Cleveland,

which they're 10-point underdogs, Buffalo's the two seed. The only way Buffalo loses the two seed, which, again, doesn't matter because there's no home-fit advantage this year, is Pittsburgh wins. Buffalo loses. Pittsburgh is not trying to win this game.

I could see Buffalo playing Josh Allen for a half or for a quarter or not playing him at all. And then, and then just Miami wins the game. If Matt, if you, this line is under a field goal, under a field goal, I think they're already kind of assuming Josh Allen's not going to play a lot in the game. Matt, if you... This line is under a field goal. Under a field goal. I think they're already kind of assuming Josh Allen's not going to play a lot in this game. Otherwise, this line would be, what?

Five, six? Right. So why isn't it all the way? This, to me, is a very, very fishy line. Because the Tua-Fitz thing is my guess. We don't really, like... If Tua comes in there and bullshits for 45 minutes,

can Fitz come save the day? But you look at a really good Dolphins defense. We know offensively there are plays to be made. Tua just doesn't make them. Fitz is the one who's making them. I think that's the reason why. But I think, again, this is one of those where I think we wait.

Because as soon as Josh Allen is announced to not play or play in the quarter or breaks, this line is going to go. Dolphins would be the favorite like right away. If Josh Allen's playing, the answer is the Bills. But I don't think he's going to play very much. There's no point in getting him hurt to maybe play like the Colts or the Titans or the Browns in the first round of playoffs. play like the Colts or the Titans or the Browns in the first round of the playoffs? So I feel like there's a lot of assumptions in there that make me sort of want to say, okay, hold on. Are we sure that that's true? The first is you're right. We don't know what the status is with Josh Allen here, but I actually disagree with you here. I think Buffalo

absolutely wants as much home field as possible. Because if I'm them, if I'm just looking at things from their perspective, they have been kicking the shit out of absolutely everybody for the last, what, two months? So I think that they are not going to necessarily want to intentionally cool off. We've seen how that's gone for teams in the past. And Buffalo, you're right that the home field thing doesn't necessarily matter but they're six and one at home this year uh straight up pittsburgh seven and one i think each of those teams are going to want the chance to

play a home game here the other thing that i think is priced into this line if pittsburgh wanted to play a home game they'd start big ben like it that simple. They're telling you they don't care about winning that game. But that doesn't necessarily matter. I think that I actually, we'll see if that ends up being true. But what I think this line assumes is that Buffalo will be scoreboard watching, realize that they don't have to beat Miami, and then pull Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs and co. out of the game, which I think is like kind of a generous assumption.

What if Pittsburgh gets up 14-0? Then all of a sudden, Buffalo kind of does have to win this game. I think you're thinking way too highly of Mason Rudolph, who's not good. He won 5-3 last year. It's not really about him. It's about the defense. Oh, man. Yeah, but the defense doesn't play.

Why would you bench big ben and then make tj watt and stephon to it and cameron hayward all play like that just seems silly to me you didn't get a proper buy like ben's 40 and he hasn't looked that great like i honestly don't think he's been like a huge plus for them do you for like the last six weeks i just i have a feeling that pittsburgh's gonna play nobody like they're gonna they're gonna sit cameron hayward and stefan to it and mike pouncing and Villanueva and DeCastro, like as many guys they can sit and just give it up. But it still might not matter.

I mean, that's also, you're basically guessing that, right? Like that you could be wrong, right? It's possible. And if that happens and Pittsburgh's winning, then Buffalo's going to try to win this game. Buffalo just found out today that they're going to be able to have some fans. It's not a ton of fans. They're going to be able to have some fans. It's not a ton of fans.

They're going to be able to have fans for a potential playoff run. Keep in mind, every week they're playing national television games. They're beating the crap out of New England. They're beating Pittsburgh.

I mean, I think they should have won eight in a row if you take out that Hale-Murray sort of miracle. I think that they're going to be trying to win this game. And I know that this might sound crazy to us, but if you're Buffalo, don't you think that if Aaron Rodgers craps the bed this week

and Josh Allen has like a six touchdown game, I'm not saying that this would happen, but don't you think that Josh Allen could like steal some MVP votes, that Stephon Diggs could steal some Offensive Player of the Year votes? I kind of feel like they have more at stake than people are going to give them credit for and by the way they've been beating the hell out of everybody they could get up 30 to nothing in the first half and then take josh allen out and still win so i don't know this line just doesn't i i don't feel like i know what they're assuming and these teams to me right now i think buffalo is the best team in the league and they're a short home favorite with something to play for.

So I'm on Buffalo here. Oh, boy. I mean, if they don't play Allen, then the Dolphins are going to win this game. If they don't play Allen, forget it. If they say Josh Allen's out, we're taking Miami, obviously. But if Josh Allen is starting this game, it could get out of hands. Like, they're unbelievable, Buffalo. No, I get what you're saying. I think – I'm going off the assumption that Pittsburgh is going to bench everyone,

which I assume is going to happen because they didn't have a bye, and Tomlin kind of hinted at it. Like, they announced Big Ben wasn't playing on Monday. They didn't even pretend. They're like, ah, fuck it, he's not playing. And I think the rest of it is – I'm telling you, man, the no-bye thing is important here because they didn't get when you have a buy it's not just you take off sunday you take off tuesday wednesday thursday friday saturday sunday monday tuesday and you come back on a wednesday you get a full week of nothing they didn't have that this year

right their buy week was covid related and they thought they had to play up until sunday they're like oh you're not playing and then okay get ready to practice for next week so that's why i think all these guys aren't even doing the practice this week they're not going to practice at all this week and all these veterans are going to sit out and i i'm here's the you're talking about the steelers in the bills in the bills daven right because that's kind of what that's kind of why this line feels to me a little bit fishy because anything can happen in this game. And you look at this line and it just sort of assumes Buffalo is going to go a certain way.

If Buffalo is not trending in that direction, this is an automatic just hammer Buffalo. I just think they're telling you that with the line that they expect this to happen. And enough people are thinking like you are and are betting Buffalo to keep this line from not moving toward Miami's direction. Yeah, well, 90% of the money is on Miami right now. So I think we're all going to be – our opinion will change on this one. But for now, I just feel like the Steelers being a factor doesn't matter.

And Buffalo – I mean mean you're the player if you're a team that's this hot and you're buffalo like of course you don't want to get injured or anything but if you're in the at the end of the third quarter and this game is kind of close like they're going to try to win it right or are they going to just sort of lay down and just say like okay well whatever i mean i think it just depends on who's playing in the game like you kind of get your signal from who's if josh allen's not in the game yeah i mean like the veterans are trying to win it but they're not winning without josh allen mark matt barkley's not winning against the dolphins defense dolphins have to win this game remember they have to win this game to get in the playoffs their defense is still really good

their weapons are getting back healthier and Fitz is going to play at some point, obviously like they, they're so crazy. They're still, I think we're looking at Dolphins have to win this. They're winning in Buffalo's in like, they don't have to win this game,

especially at Pittsburgh. So let's just keep this as a, maybe like I just, I, again, I, I been this well before you can take week 17 off and score 44 points the next week in a playoff game.

You can also lose that same playoff game. you allow 45 points but we were good that year in 2013 we took week 17 off and came back in a week in the wildcard round scored 44 points on offense so um it's i think it's not as big of a deal but all right let's get the next one because i'm curious where you are on this one. I think I'm on the wrong side, but I kind of like it anyways. Sounds good. Well, by the one last note on the Miami Buffalo game, they're the two best teams against the spread this year.

Miami's 11-4 and Buffalo's 10-5. That's unbelievable. Moving on to another game with playoff implications in the NFC, the Packers and MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers are laying five and a half at Chicago. I like the Packers and MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers are laying five and a half at Chicago. I like the Packers. Yeah. So, for coverage, this is a really weird stat.

You mentioned the weird stat you had earlier. Bears and Packers have played a week 17 five times, and Packers are 5-0. And the Bears average 15 points a game. It means literally nothing, right? Nothing at all. Nothing. But it means something. It's a random set.

I saw, um, here's the reason why, uh, Mr. Bisky has played better, but Lee sharp, who works for pro football focus also admitted bears fan put out a plot

chart this week of EPA and pro football focus. Great. And where true Trubisky has been over the last three years compared to his peers. It's like no different. Like there's no difference in his play they're just scoring some points right now they haven't scored all season but here's here's why it's Aaron Rodgers okay Aaron Rodgers is going for the MVP Aaron Rodgers playing well right now he smells the MVP he smells the Super Bowl he smells the way they're playing Rodgersgers, when he faces four or less rushers,

he's number one in the NFL in passer rating. The Bears are 27th in blitz rate. They do not blitz a lot. They rush four a ton. If you give Aaron Rodgers time, he's going to tear up. He's going to tear them up. He's going to tear them up. And I think that the Packers come into Soldier Field

and whip on the Bears. And I don't care if I'm on the public side here. I don't care if we're riding the Packers. The Packers feel a lot like the Chiefs from last year. They're ascending right now. They're playing good football defensively. They're not a great defense. They're 15th, just like the Chiefs were last year at this time.

But they're forcing turnovers. They're forcing punts. They just got Snacks Harrison. I don't know if he's playing this weekend, but that's a great addition for the run defense. Give me the Packers minus five and a half. I like, I like your argument a lot. In addition, some more weird stats that probably don't mean anything.

The bears are nine and 22 over the last 31 seasons in week 17, straight up kind of strange, not a weird stat, not a coincidence. Aaron Rogers owns the bears. He kicks the bears ass every time they play. 17-3 against them, 14-6 against the spread over the last 10 years. And Rodgers owns NFC North. He covers 62% of the time against teams in that division. Love it, love it.

In a must-win game for each of these teams, right? Because Green Bay, if they win this, they lock up home field at Lambeau, which obviously is meaningful. And if the Bears win, they're in the playoffs. Who do we like? Aaron Rodgers or Mitch Trubisky? And I get that we're playing against the spread, but Mitch Trubisky has been incredible the last five weeks. 33 points per game.

It just kind of feels like this is the spot where Mitch turns into a pumpkin. I mean, that's not an extra special data-driven analysis, but I do think that that time is going to come. We just know who he is. And for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, you said it, there's a lot at play. Rodgers could wrap up the MVP this week. Devontae Adams could potentially wrap up

Offensive Player of the Year. They could knock Chicago out of the playoffs. I like it. Yeah, I'm on board here. So let's make this our second official play as we spent 17 minutes discussing Miami and Buffalo. It's not in right now, but I'm good with the Packers. I'm curious about this next game.

I don't have a great feel for it. Yeah, I don't either. Seattle, six-point favorites at the very confusing San Francisco, Arizona 49ers. Yeah, let me pull up my stats here for Seattle because they're actually – so we know offensively that Seattle, for whatever reason, has kind of gone back to this conservative mode. Russell Wilson has not thrown the ball deep as much. His intermediate pass rate as well has dropped.

He's just not pushing the ball downfield. And you could say, hey, he made those mistakes for those four weeks we threw the eight picks or whatever, and they've kind of dialed their offense back. So their offense to me is like, I don't know if I trust them in this spot, but defensively, they're kind of pretty good right now. Last seven games, they're allowing 15 points per game, three and a half sacks per game.

They're actually looking a lot like the 13 to 14 defenses. The back half of their season is identical to the teams that went to the Super Bowl. They're starting to ramp things up defensively. They're starting to feel themselves. They're starting to play some really, really good defense. And I think they're the side here, but six is a lot of points. The Niners have

been pesky lately, right? They kind of are just in the... But also Seattle plays really well against the Niners. I think they won five of the last seven. And if you remember last year, the Niners won by like an inch at the very last play of the game.

So I think Seattle's, the play here, obviously very public play again. They have a lot to play for. They can start up with the one seed. And so I think they're, I think they're the play here if we're going with anything in this game. I think I'm on the other side.

Seattle, weirdly, despite all the talk of their home field not really mattering, they haven't covered their last five road games. The only teams with the worst against the spread record on the road this year, this is insane, Philadelphia and New England. How weird is that? So I think San Francisco getting six. Look, we saw them last week. They had nothing to play for.

Kittle came back and played it on a pitch count. Wilson Jr. looked great. San Francisco's tough. And one thing that this one I will give credit to Action Network for, this is a stat that kind of blew my mind. So teams that need to win in Week 17 to get into the playoffs have

gone 15 and 23 against the spread when playing against teams with zero incentive. So what that to me means is that the market sort of overcorrects and gives extra points to these teams that sort of need to win, so to speak. So this to me just

feels like a stay away because San Francisco could easily make this game a nightmare for Seattle. Yeah, I'm fine with staying away. I'm good with that. I don't feel great about this, so I'm good. Cool. All right, I think I'm... Hopefully, I just dodged a bullet,

but it could be the opposite. I don't feel like... There's other games I like that are still left, and then I'm going to convince you by Sunday to put the dolphins in here so okay we'll see about that moving on to a game I'm sure we will not be discussing much the Raiders are two and a half point favorites at Denver yeah um just strange pass all right next pass let's save some time yeah Arizona this is a really interesting game uh Arizona laying two and a half at the Jared Goff-less Rams. Man, what a crazy game this is.

I have no idea what to do in this game. I'm going to put the simulator up now. If the Rams win and the Saints win, like the favorites kind of just win. The Rams are in, right? If the Rams lose, they're still in, I believe right are they have they clinched a spot yet they haven't clinched I don't think there's still a way they could potentially go out I think um while you're sort of figuring that out I'll fill in with some stuff here uh McVay against the Cardinals 7-0 6-0-1 against the spread. Very strange.

Obviously, their quarterback John Walford's never thrown an NFL pass. Cam Akers is probably out. Sterrell Henderson's out. Malcolm Brown. Cooper Cupp went on the COVID list today. I don't know what to do with that. You would think that this line would be much more jolted to the Cardinals, but the last time these two teams played, the Rams held Arizona to 3.2 yards per play, which is crazy. So this to me just feels like chaos. I feel like I don't know what to do. Well, if the Bears win and the Cardinals win, the Cardinals are in and the Rams are out.

That's what it is. Right. If they win, they're good, but there is a way for them to potentially miss the playoffs. Yeah, so there's also a way for the Bears to lose and make the playoffs still. If the Rams beat the Cardinals. If the Cardinals lose. I think with this injury news

is just to stay away. I'm not betting on Kingsbury anymore. Screw that guy. I'm tired of betting on his shitty-ass teams that don't play as well as they should like i'm just done with it i'm done with it i'm over it um i'm not betting on the cardinals here not happening yeah i guess this you know we may look back and wonder why we didn't bet against uh john walford when we could have but for now it just feels a little bit too strange. But Murray's also hurt too, right? We don't know what his status is either. Yeah. It's a strange game, man.

I wouldn't want to be either of those teams rolling into the playoffs. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool. But with my wireless, I get unlimited for just $30. Impressive. But does yours have 5G included?

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Reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on root metrics. UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. Next up, the Trevor jacksonville jaguars are plus 14 at the colts with the Colts. They sometimes don't play Jacksonville very well. They lost to them in week one.

Do you remember? All the way back in week one. Jacksonville's only win. I don't know. I don't have a great feel for this. I feel like you can convince me to put the Colts in here, but I don't think it can happen. No chance.

You know that I will never be advocating for Phillip Rivers laying two touchdowns. Reminder, that stat I said earlier, only 39% of the time are teams that need to win covering against the spread against teams with nothing to play for. Furthermore, that number gets way worse when the favorites are laying more than a field goal. That goes down to 32% against the spread. So Jacksonville also sneaky kind of owns the Colts. They've won three of the last four, I think seven of the last ten.

So I think Jacksonville is the play here. And frankly, I wouldn't even really sweat it that much if we put it in. Indy is only three and four against the spread at home this season and they're five and three on the road so potentially you're getting a few extra points here I think Jacksonville is just one of those that if if you know we're trying to get to 500 and not you know necessarily be super entertaining with our picks here I think they're a really smart play. We've got to see if James Robinson plays too, right?

Yep. If he doesn't play, this is like... And Mike Lennon starting. This is the problem with this week 17, man. We've got some good numbers, but you can't really... I want to point out here, as of now, this isn't a game getting a ton of action. 57% of the bets on the Colts, 93% of the money on the Jags.

So this is going to be one of the pros and all of the worst. It's definitely going to be the pros. Let's put in the maybes. I think this is going to be a week where we have a couple maybes at the end where we just kind of have to wait and you've got to come back to my Twitter and see what we have. Because the next game is the one I've had the most trouble with this week. So we'll have to spend some time on this.

Yeah, let's do it. So this is Tennessee laying seven and a half at Houston. Tennessee has a playoff spot on the line here and Houston doesn't at all. So if you look at the big favorites this week, right, in the AFC, Baltimore, the Col colts the browns um and the and the titans even if you look at nfc the tampa bay green bay uh seattle and you look at it's not going to be this simple right not everyone not everyone's going to win and cover so who are the

teams that aren't going to win and cover and you look down the list and it's the tennessee titans right at houston plus seven and a half um but i'll tell you my reservation i'll make the case for for on the list, and it's the Tennessee Titans, right? At Houston, plus 7.5. But I'll tell you my reservation. I'll make the case for the Texans, and then I'll make my reservations, and we can decide what to do there. So, Tennessee Titans, last in the NFL, and third down. Last in sacks, last in pressure weight. Deshaun Watson will

carve them up if he's healthy. That's the problem, right? He's got an elbow thing. They say he's going to play. He threw for 335 yards the first time against him. I don't think we're talking about Deshaun Watson enough, by the way. Since week six of this NFL season, first in completion percentage, first in yards per attempt, first touchdown interception ratio, first in passer rating.

He's been outstanding. He's been great, guys. He will eat up the Titans. Titans, when they play teams, excuse me, for team above 500 records, or playoff teams essentially, Titans are last in points allowed, last in yards per play. They're atrocious.

They're utterly atrocious. Deshaun Watson will move the ball up and down the field against them. However, Derek Henry will also move the ball up and down the field against the Texans as well. Texas left tackle might be out. Duke Johnson might be out. It's just, and they've kind of given up.

J.J. Watt has given the same speech two weeks in a row. We basically have given up. Please stop giving up, guys. So I really like the Texans here. But for all those reasons, I don't think I could play them. I think you're playing the number. Because I agree, I think I like Houston. I've just repeated this stat three times now.

But again, it makes sense to bet against these teams with quote-unquote no incentive, especially in these division games where you're getting more than a touchdown. Seven and a half is a great number for a home team. I agree. You're right that Derrick Henry is going to get his, but that could mean long drives where it's not necessarily a blowout. I mean, he could run for 580-yard touchdowns as Derrick Henry, but it could also mean, cool, it's a nice ball control game game and well don't you know it you're down 14 with three minutes left and there goes watson like that's very possible um i think i think he you know houston is is the play here um it's not necessarily it's the first game i looked at this week um and i i think we should go with our gut here in houston yeah seven and a half i, they're getting almost 90% of the money

as a touchdown plus road favorite in a bad spot statistically. I think this is one where you just go with your brain and not necessarily your mind and take the Texans. Agreed. All right, let's do it. All right, moving on. Nice. Okay, we have three more games.

All division games. The Saints are six and a half point road favorites at Carolina. Just move it along. Yep. I got nothing here. Sorry, Panthers and Saints fan. There's nothing to play here. Yeah.

I guess I would probably take Carolina, but it's possible the Saints could be playing for a home field advantage. So that's kind of a scary – this is just a scary spot. Agreed. And the Panthers just aren't – I know they won this weekend, but they played a Washington team that had a guy that, you know, was not better than you at quarterback for half the game. Yeah, I agree with that.

Carolina 4-1 against the spread in their last five against New Orleans. Interesting. Moving on to the Kansas City Chiefs. They're hosting the Chargers. We're not exactly sure who's playing Kansas City Chiefs. They're hosting the Chargers. We're not exactly sure who's playing for the Chiefs. We know Mahomes is not. So the Chargers are favored by three and a half on the road. This is the game I think we don't have to speculate on.

I played in this game with Andy Reid before. When Andy Reid doesn't play the starters, he does not play the starters. I played as I was the starting right guard, but I played right tackle in week 17 of 2013. They literally did not even dress the older guys. Like they didn't dress anybody. That wasn't, 2017, same thing.

That's the game Pat Mahomes played. Remember the first start ever? They actually won that game. We lost the Chargers in 2013 because duh, Pat Mahomes was the better quarterback than Alex Smith. But they sat everyone that game too. They didn't even dress the guys.

They didn't even dress them. And I think the Chargers are to play here for that reason. I don't like Anthony Lynn. We talked about that. But they've won three in a row. They're playing a little bit better. And the Chiefs just don't give a fuck. Sorry, excuse my language.

They just don't care. They don't care. Chad Henney is starting quarterback. Chad Henney. He's older than me. He's like, he's older than, I don't know how, Matt, I think we're the same age. I'm 34. He's older than me he's like he's older than i don't know how matt you're i think we're the same age i'm 34 yeah um he's older than both of us yep like it is his play when's the last time he started a football game matt moore started last year for them

um i don't like the hook but i don't think it matters like this game to me just screams like what 24 to 10 and it takes two hours and 12 minutes and the chiefs just go on their day yep a lot of daryl williams up the gut punts yes yep i'm with you chiefs haven't covered in their last seven uh this isn't going to be the one where they're like let's turn it on justin herbert gunner for rookie of the year um i'm with you i like this one i was a little worried that i was going to have to argue it but oh no no no. The fact that you actually know what the strategy will be as a guy who's lived this game. By the way, I always have to preface it by saying

I have not talked to my brother about this. This is from my own personal experience playing this game. I talked to my brother today about his house that he's building, not about what the Chiefs are doing with their personnel moves this weekend. Again, I'm fairly sure. We see Andy Redewuce all the time. We know what he's doing. They have the one seed.

They're going to just lay down and just run the ball. Yep. All right. The last game here. Oh, man. Let's do it. Let's do it, Jeff. Waiting all day for Sunday night.

The football team playing two and a half at Philadelphia. We're going to rest our getting back to 500 on Alex Smith's calf. And I have purposely left. So I write, I write down, I write down, I write down the, I know Nick puts it in the rundown, but I like to write it down. And we have our fifth, we are fifth spot still open right here. And I'm going to put down the Washington football team. Oh, God.

Minus two and a half, because we know that's the right play. I love it. I'm going to put it as a question mark. Yep. I'm going to write, Alex Smith's mangled calf better play this weekend, or I'm not taking this bet. No chance.

It's that simple. It's that simple. Yep. If Alex Smith plays, we're taking Washington. If he doesn't play, we'll find another game to take. Yep. Probably when Josh Allen's announced not going to play, we'll take Miami.

But until then, this is so simple. The Eagles are not good. They showed last weekend they're not good. Washington's playing for a playoff spot. And the NFC East, they're the only one that control their own destiny. They win, they're in. And even last weekend, they didn't play that bad with Taylor Holinsky in the game because their defense is really good.

Remember, the Panthers scored seven points on a punt return that was muffed by Washington. But I think Alex Smith plays this weekend, though. I think that's why it's at two and a half. Oh, yeah. And the Eagles have nothing to play for. Their season's done. They have nothing to play for. I know that your stat's right, right?

They could spoil someone. I get it. But, right? Right. They can spoil someone. I get it, but they could have spoiled Dallas last weekend too. And Dallas ran all over them and threw all over them. And they just looked, the Eagles look dead. So I, I like Washington minus two and a half here.

Of course. I'm with you, Alex Smith, every game we started, they've covered. There's a chance. I have a good stat. I have a good stat in this game,

by the way, to continue. My partner, Jason McIntyre had it for our show today on Fox. Oh, here we go. So Washington and Alex Smith's tenure, when he's played, they're 10-5. Every other quarterback that started, 6-26 since he's been there. Yeah, it's amazing, especially considering he hasn't really been, obviously, great this year. There's a chance that Philly doesn't even play in this game. There's a chance

they don't even compete if they really want to get Doug Peterson fired. I think we're going to learn a lot about that. This game's about three players. It's about Alex Smith. It's about Terry McLaurin, who hopefully he'll be able to play. And Fletcher Cox. Philadelphia's defense fell apart last week when that guy went out and gave up a huge lead against Dallas. So if those two Washington guys play and Fletcher Cox does not, I think it's going to be a very enjoyable Sunday night for my fellow Washington football team fans. Any other permutation, I don't love it.

Yeah, I'm with you. And he practiced today, Alex Smith did. He's going to play. I mean, the guy came back from the most horrific injury of all time. It's a strained calf. He's going to play. Well, the good part about what we've done so far is we've managed to do this without having to include Miami or Buffalo.

Yeah, that's good. Our most contentious play of the year doesn't have to be closer. Right now, here's what we have. Dallas minus 1.5 at the New York Giants. And a lot of these are public plays. I don't care this week. Green Bay minus 5.5 at Chicago. Houston plus 7.5 at home.

That's a huge fade to public play. Chargers minus 3.5. I don't care who's betting the Chargers this weekend. I just think the Chiefs are going to lay down, and the Chargers have played good football lately. Look, Anthony Lynn, by the way, he can win seven games this year and keep his job. Yeah.

And then Washington, look, I guess Washington minus two and a half is the maybe. Who's the first one in? Jacksonville plus 14, Baltimore minus 13, Pitt plus six, or Miami or Buffalo? I love Jacksonville plus 14. Don't you? Don't you love the chance to go against Rivers?

I just think Jacksonville has kind of just said, like, screw the season. But they have nothing to, like, even if they win, nothing happens. They might as well win. No, I know. But, like, if they don't play James Robinson and, like, they just. Yeah, that's true. He has their entire offense. Yeah.

So we'll wait on that. But I'm good with the five we have. I like it. Okay. I think we did a good job this time. I think we're going to go 5-0 and make ourselves over 500. We went over 500. We don't want to be the NFC East champs that go under 500

and ride off into glory into the playoffs. We want to get over 500 and make a statement here in our last week. The worst part about being 500, by the way, in this contest is that we didn't do anyone any good, right? Like, we didn't make money, and we didn't make you guys any money fading us. Yeah, that's right. We're, like, perfectly average.

This is a strange year, though. We'll take tread and water, and then we've got the playoffs to potentially make folks some money. A buddy sent me a screenshot of one network and all their picks they've been tracking for their personalities. I mean, we think I'm bad.

They had someone that was like 13 and 31. It was like, yeah, okay, that's not good. This is a tough year. It's a tough year, but look, we've finished strong. We have four straight winning weeks. And we got to break that barrier of going better than three wins. We haven't had, I think many got to break that barrier of going better than three wins. We haven't had, I think, many weeks this year

we've had more than three wins. And that's the problem. We had only one week this year we had more than three wins. We had one week. We had a couple three and a halves, but those two weeks we got that 0-5. Actually, we've had five straight winning weeks.

Hey, let's go. Look at us. We're like the Anthony Lynn Chargers. We've had one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. We've had 10 winning weeks. Just the bad ones were just bad. Yeah, when we stink, we stink. We weren't going to stink this week, guys.

This is it. Let's go. We got you. All right. Have a great weekend. Happy New Year. Enjoy the time, hopefully, with a person wearing a mask in a good spot. And we'll be back after the New Year.

Take care, everybody. Let's go, football team.