Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 7

Episode Date: October 22, 2020

After coming off our second-straight winning week at 3-2, we are back with our Supercontest show, where we make 5 picks and jump around the league discussing the entire slate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, October 22nd. Welcome back to our Super Contest show. We make five picks for you every week and jump around the league talking about every single game. Last week, second straight winning week, 3-2, 15-14-1, Matt Ford on the year. I'm Jeff Schwartz. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smarter Than You. We had one really bad week.

One really bad week. We went 1-4, I think a week 2 or 3. We're digging our way out of it. We're making picks making solid picks we're back did you learn anything in week six well jeff what i learned is we had i felt like we were right about everything and we still went three and two i felt so good about three games that we ended up hitting on all of them uh we just missed completely on minnesota that happens um and the rams that was my fault and the rams yes i actually bet san francisco straight up to win and that cash but i'm not going to talk you out of it on your show where you're supposed to be smarter than all of us so you know we're just gonna yeah but we've told you this before if there's if there's a

there's a segment every week where it's matt matt ford is smarter than jeff schwartz and gambling and if you really want to throw a pick out, you can throw it out. But I feel like this week is interesting. There's some interesting line movement that happened even today. This is we're recording Wednesday night. Interesting line movement that might affect the game that we like this week. And let's get right into it. There's some great games, some stinkers.

And unfortunately, we start with a stinker. Yeah, we start with the Thursday night stink fest. And that's the Giants at the Eagles the eagles are four and a half point favorites i think this is going to be a quick pass but i'll give you a chance um yeah we're gonna we're gonna quick pass this i mean i think the play is the is is the giants here getting the points um but i don't want to make this bet so i'm not doing it yes we have a no giants rule on this podcast after getting burned for three straight weeks i think do you know these teams are 30th and 31st in dvoa which means it would be like the greatest game it's gonna be incredible

by the way the eagles are 31st i think they're probably the best team in the nfc somehow but they're still the worst team in the league i mean we'll get to the washington football team earlier uh excuse me later but there's a chance that this weekend ends with the Washington football team tied for first place in the NFC East. Oh, spoiler alert. We'll see when we get there. But all right, let's go to the next game where I like a side here.

I'm curious if you like the same. Yeah, I have a feeling we'll be on the same side. It's Cleveland at Cincinnati. Cleveland, a three-point road favorite. Please say the right stuff. Yeah, so this line opened with the Browns favored by four and a half. They looked really bad, obviously, against the Steelers, and the line dropped to the Browns minus three.

I like the Browns minus three here for a couple reasons. Okay, Matt. Matt, I did this last week. Matt, I like the Browns here for coverage. One is that I think in the NFL we often see, and the Browns are not a bad football team, when you get embarrassed, you come back next week a little bit renewed and focused.

We've seen the Browns now struggle against two good teams in Baltimore and Pittsburgh and really beat everyone else, and pretty handily, by the way, right? The Bengals are not a good football team. They're 29th in overall DVOA. They don't do anything really well whatsoever. They already played this year. Burrow had to throw the ball 61 times for the Bengals to cover that game.

To cover that game. So now we have the Browns a little bit wounded. I get it. Baker Mayfield's a little beat up. But I think that the formula for them, for the Browns, is run the football. The Bengals do not stop the run very well. Right? We know that.

I think I have this stat right here. They're 31st in defense against explosive plays, which is not very good. They're 29th in yards per rush on defense. So the things that the Browns do well, explosive plays on offense to Landry and Beckham off the play action pass and run the ball, the Bengals do poorly.

Plus, on the flip side, Miles Garrett's going to have a great day, right? The Bengals' offensive line has gotten worse as the year went on. I like the Browns to bounce back here, minus three. I'm with you. Look, we knew Cleveland was running into a buzzsaw last week with Mayfield hurt, Pittsburgh great defense. Cleveland was sort of riding a high.

But this week, it's kind of different. I think everyone's kind of high on Cincinnati now. But it seems, aren't you getting kind of weird vibes out of Cincinnati? on Cincinnati now. But it seems, aren't you getting kind of weird vibes out of Cincinnati? Like,

Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlop are talking about being frustrated and wanting to get traded. You know, Cleveland, there was this whole week

everyone was talking, oh, it's Baker's fault. It's Baker's fault. It's not Baker's fault, man. He was hurt. And they had a, they played a really good team

last week. That's, that's part of it. I mean, Baker, it's, the thing with Baker's fault is this, Matt, is that he is not a dynamic quarterback. At the best, he's average. He's just average. And that's fine.

You can win with average. You're never going to win championships with average. But things have to stay on schedule, right? You have to run the football, right? Remember Cowboys and Colts game. Run the football. Run the football. And then Baker can play action pass, hit those explosive plays down down the field if they get behind this game 14 nothing which i do not see happening then yes baker mayfoot is

the problem but this is the bagels team is not good enough they're not the steelers or the ravens to put them in that position to where they're going to be behind in the game early yep i well said um i agree with you completely i like this one let's put cleveland in the mix what could go wrong the cleveland browns is a road favorite um all right next up speaking of just going wrong in every possible direction the cowboys are at the football team, and it's a pick-em. Oof. Okay. So this is not a good line for Washington, right?

They opened up as three-point dogs at home. But I think Washington's the play here, and I'll tell you why. And I like this. I would be okay if I played Washington this week. So here's the reason why. Obviously, I'm a former offensive lineman. And you're going to see there's a theme this week in some of my picks with the trench, right? With the trenches. Right now, Dallas is out.

A left tackle. The left guard's not very good. They're out their center. Their right guard's their best player. He's concussed. Probably won't play this week. They're down now. They're third string right tackle.

All right? Yep. They have Andy Dalton at quarterback. What does Washington do really well? Pressure. Rush the passer and stop the run. Actually, they're number one in the NFL, by the way, in yards per game through the air.

Only allowing 207 yards per game passing. So we have a beat-up Cowboys unit who made Arizona's defense look like the 85 Bears on Monday night. Short week, going across the country to Washington. Now, Washington, they covered, thankfully for us, last weekend. Carolina's not good. We get over this many times. They're not good.

But guess what? They get a historically inept defense. If the Cowboys were to finish this year allowing 36 and a half points, which is what they allow right now, it'd be the worst defense in the Super Bowl era. So we have a bad offensive line against a good defense and a bad offense against a bad defense. I like Washington here. It's a great case that you've made.

I'm with you. I mean, first of all, the pros are all over them. That's why the lines move, despite more bets on Dallas generally at most of the numbers. Yeah, Andy Dalton had no time last week against the Cardinals without Chandler Jones. Like, what are we talking about here?

They made the Arizona defense look so incredible. Kendall Fuller's back had a pick last week he looks great washington's got the sixth passing dvoa on defense um and look washington they they should have they should have won last week right they went for two they probably wouldn't want an overtime the momentum was on their side uh they're not as bad as as people think and i yeah i guess i'll take washington they're going into the bye week like it feels like they could close out with some momentum i think so too i think the cowboys are just really bad and like what is what is telling you they're going to be better on defense this week just they

play a washington team that in washington see like here's one thing too that i found pretty interesting washington i think has not rushed from one had one rusher this year over 60 yards god this feels like the week where they get the ball running early in the inning and they feel good about themselves right they just play better because they know that dallas is a terrible defense yeah and so i would i'd be fine putting washington here we can say put it for maybe for now but i feel pretty good about washington at a pick them i know again we're not getting the three points that we got two days ago but i think they win the game so the pick them's fine with me yeah uh i'm with you also i just want to point out this is something that you've you've been

hot on for for a while uh zeke elliott just not the same guy this year five fumbles yeah uh in 100 carries he's averaging for a carry but with that passing offense you would think that there'd be lots of room to go well i think I think he has, I don't know. He's not scoring like he usually does. I think he has, I guess he has five touchdowns. That's pretty good. But he has definitely not looked the same. I don't know if it's COVID.

I don't know if it's the lack of the offensive line. He's fumbled a bunch too. But it could be all of the above. It's been an interesting one to track. And just one last thing. One last thing I want to mention about the Cowboys. Is now we're getting the media bickering, right? The media infighting.

We're hearing from Jane Slater, NFL Network, right? Oh, hey. Did I say her name wrong? No, no. I love her. She's great. Oh, okay. Yeah.

She's great to work with. Yeah, she's great. So, right. It's what? It's infighting. Oh, we're not prepared every week. We're not playing hard every week. They're two and four and they're already doing this in the media.

Like this is not a good place right now. I think Washington, everything you said is kind of ready to win this week. And when you're a bad team and you feel like you could win, it does go a long way. So I like Washington. Love it.

All right. So far we got the football team in the Browns. Not bad. That's on brand for us. Yeah, but this is how you win, man. No, I'm with you. Yeah. I'm with you.

It just means we have bad games to watch, but that's the cross we have to bear. The next one, speaking of bad teams, the Detroit Lions, two and a half point dogs at Atlanta, the resurgent Atlanta Falcons. This is a tough one, man. and Falcons. This is a tough one, man. I mean, I think that the Lions is the way to go here, but I don't really trust any of these teams.

I don't feel – I think the Lions is definitely the way to go. Like if I were to choose a team to be the Lions here, I don't feel great about it. If you're willing to make a case for Detroit, be my guest. No, I'm not i would i think i would lean atlanta um i think atlanta is just bound to regress towards like average just given how good they are on offense um and they've been a different team with julio jones in verse when he's not playing yeah um so i guess i'm on atlanta here but this was one where i was i sort of had the same attitude

i was like if you're feeling strong like i could be talked into either side but i don't feel anything i'm with you so i'm out cool this um this will be a good game here this is uh this next one is carolina uh seven and a half point underdogs at new orleans um lots of money on the Panthers. What say you? I like, this is one where obviously everyone's going to be on the Panthers, right? Because Teddy Bridgewater covers all these games. The Saints are off a buy.

We've been hearing now they're not as good of a team. They're not, you know, they're not, they're, there's, they're this and that, like, you know,

they drew breeze, can't throw the ball downfield. And I just think that they're going to know they're not they're there's they're this and that like you know they drew breeze can't throw the ball downfield and i just think that they're gonna win this game big i don't really trust i just i would say far away from this game yeah if you have a feel in the panthers i feel like too much the panthers are too public i agree yeah they're too cute i i'm i wish this was seven and i think that's the problem is is vegas knows this is going to be a a saint's win and no matter how much money is going to come in on those panthers like it doesn't really matter i i think people are completely forgetting about michael thomas michael thomas number one receiver in the league last year unstoppable he has one bad game against tampa who completely shut down

devante adams last week and aaron rogers um We haven't seen Michael Thomas yet, and he's probably coming back. He's had a sort of weird couple weeks. But when he's in that offense, like Taysom Hill goes back to being like a silly little side show instead of the like red zone target like alvin camara suddenly is going to have like way less attention on him and this team like all of the drew breeze stuff is going to go away when he comes back and is healthy so i this feels like a nice get right spot for for the saints but again it's like seven and a half i i don't know i don't trust it um yeah i don't i don't i would i feel much better about other stuff yeah me too um well this one's maybe one of them the bills laying 13 at the jets i'm out this game if flacco plays are you sure i'm out on the jets on the bills oh you mean me take the bills here yeah if if joe flacco plays is there a single team in the nfl that wouldn't beat the jets by 20 i like what do they even do i mean the bills are

just look off man i guess man you are you making make your case for the bills go ahead i i didn't i didn't even think about this game but if let's hear go ahead i have no case the case is the jets suck the jets i mean honestly the play here is probably the jets i mean they haven't won a game I didn't even think about this game, but if let's hear it, go ahead. I have no case. The case is the Jets suck. The Jets. I mean, honestly, the play here is probably the Jets. I mean, they haven't won a game against the spread yet. You know, Darnold practiced. McKay Becton practiced.

You know, all their receivers are healthy. This could be the spot where they actually do cover a game, but not not touching that. No chance. No, no, no, no. If you were to bet this game, you bet the bills. I just I don't want any part of this game. I'm with touching that. No chance. No, no, no, no. If you were to bet this game, you bet the bills. I just, I don't want any part of this game. Like I'm with you there. I thought you were making a case to put the bills in this, in this, in this super contest.

I thought you were going to be on the bills and I had all these little cute points about the Jets just to make you angry. No, no, no. There's, there's, uh, there's at least, there's one game we both love that's coming up near the end of here. And there's a bunch of other games in between that we like. So no, I'm off the bill. Fair enough.

All right, next one is Green Bay at Houston. Green Bay, three and a half point road favorites. All the money on Green Bay. What do you think? Yeah, I think all the money's on Green Bay, rightfully so. I think Green Bay would cover this game. I don't, I just, I'm not in the mood to touch this game. I don't know if you feel any way about this game. I do think Green Bay probably cover this game. I don't, I just, I'm not in the mood to touch this game. I don't know if you feel any way about this game.

I do think Green Bay probably wins by like two touchdowns and feels great about themselves after getting blown out by Tampa. You know, the Colin Coward theory, right? Good teams come back after embarrassing losses and play very well. But I just, I, yeah. Well, let's start with this stat,

which thanks, thanks, Nick nick i circled this one too aaron rogers 66 against the spread after a straight up loss after the game last week he did the thing that aaron rogers is you can sort of read how this team's gonna go based on what he says to the media and he did the whole hey maybe this loss was kind of a good thing, right? Like he started to do that thing. But here's the thing, Jeff. A week ago, I swear, this is what, seven and a half, this line? Like all of a sudden, because Houston beat Jacksonville and got close against the Titans who were playing their second game in five days and still lost.

We're going to say Romeo Cornell is in a touchdown dog to aaron rogers i look green bay ran into a tough team last week i i think they were nonchalant i don't think they were ready uh but i really just i trust aaron rogers to bounce back here uh no one's been a road favorite in aaron rogers career except tom brady uh and he covers 55% of the time. So it's a reliable bet. This is not a big number. The hook is annoying, but I agree. I think it's going to be a beat down. I would have no problem fading the Texans. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool. But with my wireless, I get unlimited for just 30 bucks. Impressive. But does yours have 5G included?

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Reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on root metrics. UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. I'm okay with putting this as a maybe because I do think you're right here. And like I said,

there's other games I like more, but I think that Green Bay is the right side here. And if you feel strongly about this as we get through this at the end, I would feel fine putting them in here. But like so far,

I like other picks better. So we'll see at the end. But I'm with you. Look, Rodgers is 66% against the spread coming off a loss. Like, he's good off a loss. And I do think the Packers probably going into Houston and beat the shit out of them. Both defenses are very bad.

Both offenses are – numbers-wise, Houston DVOA is eighth on offense. Green Bay is 30th on defense. I mean, maybe they score enough points to keep this game close, but probably not. And again, we should save one spot per week on the Matt is smarter than Jeff Schwartz pick of the week, and this might be it.

We'll see. I have a few others that I like. Okay. It could be this one. Seattle, three and a half point road favorites at Arizona. What do you like here? So I don't have a feel on this game except a couple trends where the road team is 9-1-1 the last 11 meetings in this game,

which is really odd. And they haven't lost to the Cards in Arizona since 2012, which happened to be Russell Wilson's first start ever in the NFL. And they're 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 on the road. So kind of everything points to trends-wise, points to Seattle winning this game big. But Arizona just, you know, they played well against a bad Cowboys team. I think I know you're going to go Seattle here,

and you could easily talk me into Seattle. Yeah. I'm going to try to do that. So Arizona, I think we're in a sell high position uh they haven't looked great all season except except when they played some pretty rough teams last even this last monday night kyler murray was nine for 24 against that dallas defense that everyone thinks he tore apart kenny and drake turned a corner, but again, it's, it's Dallas. Pete Carroll, seven and four and one against the spread after a buy. This year teams after a buy or four and two against the spread.

So that's just good to know. Seattle's getting a little healthier. You know, it's unclear if Jamal Adams is coming back or not at this point of the week, but they just have like a bunch of little injuries that hopefully they're able to turn the corner with um the i i just think to the the little edge of the rest advantage seattle's coming off the bye arizona's got the short week uh i don't know i i

think that arizona's offense it's not back um and seattle is going to be is going to be uh i think they're going to be ready to go. Seattle has a number one DVOA in offense, by the way. Yeah. And Arizona is, I mean, they're balancing 12th on offense, 9th on defense. Yeah, I mean, I think Seattle is the right player. All those stuff off of by I think really matters.

We see those trends obviously play really well, right? I mean, 4-0, I mean, 3-0 last week games off of by and they've won by at least 13 points. a buy thing really matters we see those trends obviously play play really well right i mean four and oh the last uh i mean three no last three games off a buy and they've won by at least 13 points at least average they have 13 points like it feels like this is a play you almost have to make because everything tells you to do it yeah i i agree i i let's put it in the maybe pile too because i do i'm looking ahead at this at the rest of the week and there are a bunch that I still like. So I think it should make it to the next round. Okay.

Into the next round. Let's do it. Okay. Next up is San Francisco at New England's New England two point home favorites. I, this line is weird to me. And I just have no, want no part of it. I don't think New England's good right now. Fair.

Although, are you going to allow me to paint you a picture of New England coming off of a game where they look terrible and San Francisco coming off of a national game where they looked amazing and potentially getting a spot to buy bill belichick off of a loss i look a few things i think this raheem mostard injury really does matter uh the 49ers last week their offense was humming he's averaging 6.4 yards per carry this year the guy's unbelievable 21 points with the men in the first half three in the second half there they also had some injuries on the o-line t Trent Williams, Ben Garland, potentially in danger of missing this one. Look, New England had a super fluky, weird home game, right?

They gave up six field goals. They didn't give up a single touchdown. They just had this weird game where Cam clearly wasn't right. Maybe he wasn't able to practice. Maybe he's not feeling totally good. But I think this might just be one where you trust belichick with san francisco coming across the country in a short week where new england just

got embarrassed by a bad team short home favorite i i don't feel let's go let's give one to ten how would how much you like this pick i mean i don't like it but it's the right thing. Like, that's how I feel about it. Like, if we're going to pick this one, it's New England. Oh, no, I think that's probably right. I just want no part in putting this in the five picks. Do you want it in there? You want to put it in the maybe pile? I'd like to rule it out.

I think I would, I don't know. I mean, the two is a great number. I mean, I don't mind putting it in the maybe pile because we can go over it again and see what we have left. We've got a bunch of maybes. Let's – But – well, we have two that I think we're in. And the next couple – we still have games that I really like. Yeah, me too.

So let's go to the next one. Let's put it in maybe. I just – I don't have a feel for it. I think you're right. just i don't have a feel for i i think you're right but again like i said on monday man is that i feel like we're we have a new new england team and we can't take the old team into consideration anymore it's a brand new team and saying that oh belichick will just bounce back their offense doesn't look like poo i don't know what's gonna change what's gonna change i hopefully cam's healthier and get in practice i it's a good point um all right let's move to this one i hope this

isn't one of yours because this is the chiefs laying nine and a half at denver oh no okay good just skip move along cool just saying though andy reed 16 and five against the spread on the road in the afc west with the chiefs pretty incredible it's a lot of points. I'm not doing this game. Great. Me neither. How's Mitch's back, by the way? It's his back. It's – I don't know. I surprised you with that one. Yeah. Well, his back is sore from carrying my media career.

I'm going to say that. That's going to be my thing from just now on. Whenever anyone asks me about that, that's what I'm going to say. Nice. Great. Good bit, Jeff. Next up, we've got to Pittsburgh plus one at Tennessee. Okay.

I have a feeling we both like this one. So here is why I love the Steelers. So this line started out Steelers favored by two, okay? It's now gone. It moved three points today. I was writing an article about this for Fox Sports today. At two o'clock, Steelers were plus two, wrote the whole article. I picked my kids up, came back, finished it,

and the Steelers line had moved three points. Now, move through dead numbers. It's not like a crazy thing, right? So we get a point here. But I think the opening line shows you a couple things, Matt, is that two undefeated teams that are 5-0, and they take the Steelers minus two on the road to win this game. So that means they think they're going to win the game,

which means that if this was on a neutral site, what, the line would be four? If this was at Pittsburgh, they'd be favored by five or six, right, depending on what you think home field advantage is right now. So Vegas is telling you that they think the Steelers are that much better, and so do I. So here's why I think the Steelers are better this weekend. Here's a couple reasons why.

We know the Steelers get home with their defense a lot, right? Number one in blitz rate, number one in pressure rate. The Titans are now down both their offensive tackles. Taylor LeJuan is out, just towards ACL, and the right tackle's out. Going back to last year, I know it's Marcus Mariota was their quarterback, but they doubled in sacks the first four games when LeJuan was not in the game, right? So I feel like you have a a a stout pass rush who's really good against the run right suffocating back into their defense against a really good

titans team on offense right we've acknowledged that ryan tanhill's crushing it their epa is high all those things but i think the flip side is where the the huge advantage is which is tennessee's defense is not very good they're not very good and they allow teams back into games. I'm going to pull up some stats here as well. Tennessee on defense, they're last in the NFL in third down, and they're last in the red zone. So they don't stop anyone. They allow a ton of points. And look at their wins so far, right?

They won by – the Broncos by two, Jags by three, Vikings by one, and they beat the Texans by six in overtime. So they crushed the Bills, obviously, in the middle of that. I think the Steelers are a better team. Tell me why I'm wrong, but I think you agree with me. I agree with you fully. I mean, the other thing is Tennessee, this is their third game in 12 days. I mean, this is a really tough turnaround against a very, very difficult defense to play against.

This feels like a trap public game. This feels like everybody somehow the steelers aren't the public team like everyone's seen a lot of tennessee the mike rabel thing everybody i think he's probably the coach of your front runner at this point everybody loves that story um johnny smith and cory davis are both banged up this just feels like the letdown spot for tennessee and pittsburgh like we saw what they did to cle last week. Like they are a team that could do some ass kicking. Like they are a physical team. James Conner seems like he's back.

And I really like that for him. He's averaging almost six a carry. And Tennessee's defense is allowing almost five or over five a carry. I think it's a tough matchup for Tennessee. I really think it's important to talk about like the trenches here. Like Taylor would want to be out as a big loss. He'll just replace the left tackle. And we saw last week, too, that the Steelers, like I said,

at the highest blitz rate in the NFL and the highest pressure rate, sometimes go hand-in-hand. But last week, they got home with four a lot. With four a lot, right? And now you have a beat-up Titans offensive line. And yeah, I just think the Steelers are feeling themselves. And again, the opening line, I think, is important here. Just in the mindset of how the people saw this line of action.

Now, it didn't move, and it moved through dead numbers. So it's really not as important. But it's telling you, they thought at the beginning of the week, Vegas said, hey, look, the Steelers, both teams are defeated. On the road, Steelers are laying two points. They're telling you the Steelers are much better than the Titans. Yeah. This is my favorite one.

Same here. Glad to lock it in. By the way, I need to go back and do this and maybe we can have Nick do this at some point. I feel like when we are both like, we love this play,

it hits that week. Yeah. I think so too. Because we both loved Pittsburgh last week too, I believe. Yeah. Yes. So Pitt plus one.

Yeah, we did like them. And I feel like we really liked detroit too um all right next is a game i'm positive we're gonna pass on jacksonville eight point dogs at the chargers just firm pass firm pass i was at swipe left i swipe i've been married for 12 years i'm not together for 12 years what is like the swipe left and right? I've been with my wife for eight married to get out of the way. It's like, we should ask whatever directions. Yeah.

I will say chargers six, 13 and one against the spread is a home favorite in the Anthony Lynn era. Whoa. We're not taking Jacksonville buddy. No chance. Yeah. Swipe left is bad. That's what Nick says.

Swipe left is bad. A bad for who? No one knows. Let's go to the Sunday night game. That's what Nick says. Swipe left is bad. Bad for who? No one knows. Let's go to the Sunday night game. That's Tampa at Las Vegas. Tampa laying three and a half on the road to the Raiders off a bye. Pots. The hook sucks.

I hate the hook, but I love Tampa in this situation. Yeah, me too. Which I, oh, you do? Okay, good. So there's a couple reasons why. John grew an 0-2 off a bye as Oakland head coach. But I think that's more. I think they played the Chiefs twice, by the way, off a bye too,

which hasn't really helped. I didn't look, but I think that's partly why. But I think Tampa's defense is the reason why here. We're seeing, by the way, that defenses are kind of coming back now. And the good ones are coming back really well. Green Bay was averaging 38 points a game in their first four games of the year. And Tampa shut them down last week. They have the number one pass defense via EPA.

They have a number two pressure rate as well. And look, what the Chiefs did on defense two weeks ago is interesting. I think Tampa won't make this mistake. Derek Carr, even after that game, was only 26 in air yards per attempt. So he throws the ball pretty short. The Chiefs sat on short routes, and Derek just beat them long. Like, they brought safety up in the box, and he just went behind the safety. Tampa's not making that mistake.

They're not making that mistake. I like this game, by the way, before the Raiders offensive line went into COVID and COVID protocol this week because Trent Williams supposedly has COVID. We don't know that confirmed. I don't want to spread any rumors about that. Trent Brown, I should say. Yes, Trent Brown, the big right tackle.

But also, the Raiders defense is atrocious. It's atrocious, right? 28th in EPA, 31st in DVOA. We saw the Bucs kind of get their offense rolling a little bit. Very disciplined, right? No penalties. Got Gronk going again. Man, I love the Bucs here. Me too. I wish that we didn't get the hook either, but I have a feeling we're going to have to pick one of these games where we're getting hooked. Yeah, I mean, we were going

to make the same exact argument. I mean, to me, this feels again, sort of like the Tennessee thing where you've got this team that everyone has sort of like almost hoped is, has entered the top tier. Uh, Tennessee's made more of a case than Vegas has, but you know what I mean? Like they're weirdly the public team here, despite Tampa winning a marquee game in a blowout last week. I don't know if that's actually accurate, but that's kind of how it feels like this feels like it could be six and we'd still be kind of staring at it. So I'm a fan of, uh, I'm a fan of Tampa here.

Um, yeah. And again, I think you're right about what they're telling you. I mean, so, you know, they're basically telling you that if this game was in Tampa,

they'd be favored by what? Six, seven. Yeah. Something like that. Yeah. And there's no home foot advantage anymore, right?

They're going to an empty stadium in Vegas. I think Tampa's locked in. All right, let's go to the Monday night game, which I don't have a thought, but I'm kind of curious what you think about this game. I don't think I want to play it, but I can be convinced into one side. Well, that Monday night game, I was trying to look up this. The pressure percentage was this number I kept looking at to look up this uh i was the pressure percentage was this number i kept looking at tampa's fourth in the league in pressure percentage i don't think

derrick hart is gonna have time to uh throw deep how about that analytics stat so chicago plus six at the los angeles rams uh monday night yeah i mean i the bears are plus six to the thing that's a play here the rams obviously got embarrassed against the Niners, but their defense, the Bears' defense is really good. And the Niners' defense, I mean, the Rams' defense obviously took a step back last week. I think that's the play here, but I don't... You can maybe convince me to take the Bears plus six.

We're getting a good number, by the way, because it's opened at four-ish, I want to say. And it's moved now. So I think six is a good number but i i don't really i think we have other better games to play what do you think i agree i would like to just talk about this one though for a second because i do think that this is a potential opportunity i think on monday night i'll be playing the bears um because yeah but not but yeah but see for fun sure but like not in the suit and i hate waiting I hate waiting on Monday night to play these games.

It just drives me crazy, especially for super contests. I know. I agree. But for fun, let's just talk about it for a sec because I think that Chicago, their defense, you talk about defenses coming back. Their defense quietly towards the top of the NFL, third in yards before contact on rushing plays, which means they're getting into the backfield. Hakeem Hicks has been a monster. He so underrated that guy so good um the rams tend to do well in offense when that play action's working right so if they're not able to run the ball and khalil max coming off the edge they're gonna have some problems the thing with betting the bears is yes they're a little soft for their record but so are the rams the rams only beat

the nfc east and chicago the way to beat them is nick foals loses the game for you, they're a little soft for their record, but so are the Rams. The Rams only beat the NFC East. And Chicago, the way to beat them is Nick Foles loses the game for you. They're solid the rest of the way. So I would take the points here, but I agree this is probably out for the contest. Yeah, so I'm with you here. I think this is a game like Monday night where you can even tease it with another game this week and maybe the Panthers or something and get yourself some more points and you have a even tease it with another game this week and and you know maybe the panthers or something and get yourself some some more points and you have a big tease this week um i think actually like like a lions bears um you know tease would feels pretty enticing right just

kind of grabbing some points in those games um but yeah i even if even the giants i mean i think you tease the giants like 10 and a half sauc Saucy. Right? A Giants, Lions, Bears teaser. Saints. Anyone for that? Is that why people are coming to this podcast to hear those great teases? Could be. How about the Saints? All right.

So let's go here. We have four. We have in the yes, I believe. Cleveland minus three. Washington on the pick. Pitt plus one. Tampa minus three, Washington on the pick, Pitt plus one, Tampa minus three and a half. Then we have three

that you really liked. Green Bay, Seattle, New England. So I'm going to, Matt, we have one open spot. I know you hate when I make you decide.

Yeah. But I think I lean Green Bay here of those three games. I feel fine with Seattle. New England, I get your point, but I really think that we can't do this as like the same team Belichick has always had. So Green Bay or Seattle.

Remember, Seattle had all the trends in this direction, right? In the series, the road team plays well. Russell Wilson has not lost in Arizona in quite a few years. They're off a bye, which is good. Green Bay is playing a Houston team that's – official numbers are pretty good. They play close games. Their defense is not – Packers defense ain't very good.

So which team do you think on the road? I think those – Good cases. I think – I think it's Seattle. I think you made a good argument. Those trends are pretty important in that game, I feel like. Seattle is the best team of the two of them.

Yeah, let's do it. I think Arizona is... Yeah, I can't tell if they're better than Houston, but the fact's, yeah, I think it's Seattle. Yeah, Seattle is first in offense, 26th in defense, but fourth on special teams, which is pretty good. And Green Bay is 12th in overall DVOA, but Houston's 15th. So I'm good with putting Seattle in there.

So we have... I like that. I feel like Green Bay could be a little bit of a false... We have three road favorites again. Yeah, and two hooks. But this is the week. Look at the teams that we get to bet on against. Pittsburgh is a great one.

Cleveland's three-point favorite against banged-up Cincinnati. I don't know. I think we're making sound choices. Cleveland, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Seattle, 15, 14-1. So if you're fading us, you're not making money. We're not making money. No one's making money. So we hope to change that this weekend, Matt.

We'll make ourselves some money, make all of us some money. A couple of things. I like Andy Dalton's, whatever his prop will be for under yards, I think that that's a good bet. It's early in the week for props, but I think he's not going to throw for a lot of yards against Washington. Just FYI. I like that out there.

That's nice. I love when you surprise me with the player prop. It's just, it's like, I don't do much of it like on Wednesday night, but I think of something creative for an article that I write for Fox Sports. So really appreciate you guys listening, tuning in, giving us your feedback, obviously. Have a great weekend. Good luck this week.

Let me know if you take our plays. I always appreciate that. Or if you fade our plays, let me know. Hope you have a great week. Enjoy some football. We'll be back on Tuesday. Gabe will be back. We're back to usual.

Love you guys. Thank you for listening. We out.