Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 8

Episode Date: October 29, 2020

The Browns missed an extra point to turn a win into a push, and then the Seahawks cost us an undefeated week, making Geoff and Matts picks for last week 3-1-1 in the Supercontest lines. We have more great picks for you and we'll be previewing each game ahead of week 8. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, October 29th. Welcome to week eight. We were so, so close to 5-0 last week. We had a missed extra point by the Browns at the very end of their game against the Bayles and the Seahawks. Penalty on the field goal. We had a chance to cover there as well, but we had 3-1-1. Third straight winning week. We're back to preview all the games this week. Welcome in, Matt Ford. I'm Jeff Schwartz. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart and New. Welcome back, everyone. Three straight winning weeks, Matt, is good. This week, though, is a complete poo-fest. These lines are terrible. They're not good. We will find you five games. We'll work our way through it. We'll have another winning week, but it feels like, and I'm shocked to say week eight, Matt, but it feels like Vegas is kind of honing in now on what they should be doing with these numbers. I guess. There are some that are a little bit strange. And even the huge one this week, we were just going back and forth. It doesn't really make a ton of sense.

But can we just, how many hearts has Cody Parkey broken? Oh, geez. I mean, that missed extra point. What's funny is, so the line was three that extra point was to go up four and i didn't know who the browns kicker was right it used to be that cyber guy what was that guy's name he was good whoever it doesn't matter it's the kicker and then you see and they were like okay and and red zone cut away because it's like who cares about the extra point and i was like i care a lot about this extra point.

Scott Hanson, do not cut away. And then they cut back and they have the font. It's like Cody Parkey is the kicker. And I was like, we're fucked. Like, no chance. We're done. Call this a push. And obviously that's exactly what happened.

So pretty good week though. I'll take three, one and one. What was incredible about that was I have my three TVs in my room. About the last seven minutes of that early window. Thank you. And I use my iPad, too. As I stand in front of the TVs,

just like pace back and forth. Like as I watch it. Because look, we had the Steelers game as well, which we were on the right side, I thought. But obviously they could have easily not covered that game. And the Browns, and we're texting, meaning you back and forth. And when the Browns scored,

I was like doing like a happy dance. And and i was like because i knew that we at least that we pushed now the number in that week really was like three and a half right we got a good number with the super contest so a lot of people got screwed on that part i just it's just like it's so gambling to be like literally fist pumping like in your in your man cave and then just cody park he just tears your heart to shreds as the browns go back and cover that game so we have to let's get back to where i think we're 18 15 and one somewhere around there with our 15 and three i should season 18 15 and three whatever it is we had a good week we'll have another good week for you guys let's get started with the

thursday night football game yeah man let's do it. It's going to be a really interesting game this week. It's an NFC South game. The Falcons are at the Panthers. Panthers are two and a half point home favorites. We usually don't even really engage with these Thursday night games, but I'm curious if you have a feel this week. Well, so here's my, if you want to call it an issue with this game, is that I feel like the Panthers now,

and they still are like covering machine, are like too public now, right? Like everyone wants to bet the Panthers. Everyone wants to bet the Panthers. And they're under a field goal, which makes sense. But I just, I don't know, Matt. I feel like the Panthers could be a great play here. It's a short week.

That was Matt Rule's first short week, but the Falcons keep finding ways to lose every weekend. Did you see the video today of Todd Gurley, of Matt Ryan telling Todd Gurley to not score a touchdown in the huddle? Explicitly told him, do not score a touchdown. What does he do? Scores a touchdown.

And they lose in the last play of the game. So I don't know how you feel about this. I can be convinced to go to Carolina, but we typically stay away from Thursday. But I'd love to hear if you have a thought on this one i don't i was hoping i was kind of hoping you did because it feels like this is one that we could figure out um the the stat of the week i think is uh road dogs of six or fewer this season are 27 and 12 against the spread which is kind of strange um i guess maybe because there's no home crowds like that has tipped the scales a little bit but we're certainly not taking

atlanta um although they can't keep losing games like this forever and if mccaffrey comes back which it's possible um that certainly like changes the changes things for carolina i know that you don't really value running backs much, but if he comes back, I would consider the Panthers because then we'd sort of be getting a free point or two. But until we know that, I'm not really sure I would want to take this one. Yeah, rule is one and two so far as a favorite. And the Panthers in general have covered one, five, and one

in the last seven games as a favorite. So we can get back to this one if we don't like other ones. But the next game is the one I'm having the most trouble with this week. So let's get to that one. Yeah. So it's the game of the week. It's the Steelers at the Ravens. The Ravens in the Super Contest are four-point favorites.

This line has been all over the place. So it's interesting that's where it landed. So this game spooks the heck out of me. All right. And I'll tell you why. And actually, I'll use some reasoning for the Steelers game last weekend about why I think the right side is Baltimore in this one. But we'll get to this in a second.

So first of all, these teams are almost at least analytically DVOA, EPA, like mirror images, right? Baltimore and Pittsburgh are right around the same in offense and the same in defense. Obviously, Pittsburgh 6-0, Baltimore is 5-1, I believe. Yeah, it's 5-1 off a bye this weekend. So here's the point I made last weekend about the Steelers that would make me bet on the Ravens,

is the Steelers opened last weekend as a two-point favorite at Tennessee. And that told you that Vegas thought they're the better team, right? On the road, two 5-0 teams. The opening line is very important. The opening line here was five and a half. That's a lot of points for the Ravens. I mean, that's a lot. Vegas is telling you that they think the Ravens are that much better than the Steelers. Now, the line came back down to three, but back up to four. So the Ravens, in my opinion, is the play here, right? You're not going to get an opportunity to like a higher point for the Steelers, right, too.

I feel like it's just... But the thing that spooks me is that I've been on the Steelers all year, dude. And I've been pretty right on the Steelers. I don't want to be wrong by taking the Ravens here, but I think the Ravens is probably the right play. Yeah, the Ravens are the right play. Well, one of the reasons that we like Pittsburgh, and I'll get to this with another team later, is Pittsburgh's covered every game but one. And that's despite they haven't, they've only had one blowout victory right they beat cleveland two weeks ago in a game i think that we that we were put in our contest or maybe

i wanted to and you wouldn't let me i can't i actually don't remember um but i think so baltimore this season i think has been flying a little bit under the radar because the games that they've won like no one's even watched because it's been, it's, it's been out of hand really early. And then they, you know, they had a tough game against the chiefs. Um, I think, I think Baltimore is definitely the right side here. Harbaugh nine and three straight up after buying his career, uh, the, you know, Pittsburgh hugely public team, uh, the six and Oh, it's sort of like at boxing when you look at an undefeated fighter and you're like, man, this guy must be awesome. But they've kind of played a bunch of

tomato cans this year. If you recall, pretty close game against the Broncos in week two, pretty close game against the Texans in week three. That Eagles game in week four was a really strange game. And then they should have probably lost last week i'm glad they didn't um so i think i think baltimore coming out of the bye get a chance to you know maybe lamar hasn't been totally healthy and they haven't exactly said it it just feels like baltimore is the right side here i hate the four but they're a good home team you know pittsburgh's coming off of a really tough uh you know kind of lucky win and remember they like never in big ben's career they've never been six and oh so they've never been seven or no either it just feels like their comeuppance is coming and you know that baltimore would love to take it to them uh yeah i mean

baltimore right now second in dvoa i mean like they're having a good third yeah um and pittsburgh so i mean like they're so close and that's and that's my that. And that's why this game spooks me a little bit. I feel like when you have two really even teams, you want to take the points, right? You want to take Pittsburgh plus four when you have two even teams. But all the points we made about Baltimore, I think, are right. Off a bye. Time to get right. Steelers right now.

No hotter team in the NFL. No hotter team the public is on. I will say the one thing that I've been doing a lot this year, I think it's been helping, is looking really at the offensive line and the trenches and the matchups. And Baltimore's offensive line right now is just not what they used to be. And I do worry it's a Steelers team that did really well against Tennessee, whether that be a concern.

So I'm good with Baltimore minus four, but I really don't feel great about it. Maybe at the end of the program, I'll give you a teaser I love this week. The Steelers are part of that teaser. But for right now, I'm going with Baltimore just maybe in the maybe pile. Maybe pile or yes pile? Yeah, let's put them in the maybes. Okay. I'm not dying to bet against Pittsburgh.

Okay, so we got one maybe. All right. We're going to do this now. The New York Jets are playing the kansas city chiefs this weekend and the chiefs are 19 and a half point favorites okay so let's look at the jets this season obviously oh and seven and oh and seven gets a spread i believe right they have not covered yet that's a spread um so they've scored 17 13 7 a 28 spot against the broncos 10 0 and 10 okay so let's just say for chits and giggles they score 14 points this week okay are the chiefs

gonna score less than 35 i mean it's possible by the way they did cover last week the jets so oh they finally covered. Okay. Yeah, they got to eight-point loss to Buffalo. Well, yeah, it's 18-10. I don't want to bet this game. I know people that are sharp that have. It's shocking to me, but they have because the Jets are that bad.

The one concern I have is over the years, the Chiefs have kind of been known to just shut things down in the second half of games. I mean, they could easily be up 28-7 at halftime, just say like, we're just shutting it down and just lose 28-14.

Like it's possible that that's the case. So, I mean, the play here is the Chiefs. I just, I don't, I think we can find better games. I mean, maybe we can't. Maybe at the end of this, we come back and we're like, I like the Chiefs a lot.

Yeah. So first of all, I had, I've saved the Chiefs in lot yeah so first of all i i had uh i've saved the chiefs in survivor just out of luck and that's a pretty easy choice for me this week to take the chiefs um feel good about that one um so we were talking about this before the show this happens once in a while where you get one of these huge 20 plus point favorites um six out of the last seven times the underdog

covered i think precisely because of that reason jeff that you said of like you know there chad henney played at the end of the game last week like he could he could very well play it starting in the third quarter this week like pat mahomes isn't going to go out there and and do any extra i do think levy on bell will get some work in this game which will just be unbelievable to watch on twitter the meltdown but i'm curious if like if curious if like, if you're in the, if you're in the Jets locker room, like, is this the thing players know about? Like, this is a huge spread. Like this isn't a historic spread.

You know, it was 27, 2013. The Broncos were a favorite over the Jaguars in a game I remember well. But yeah, would a player like know that this is a thing? I don't think so. They just know they're not very good. I don't think they know that they're this big. I don't think they realize that, no. Yeah, okay.

Well, the Chiefs are maybe. I mean, it's very unprincipled to do that, but I think that anyone would say that the Chiefs are four touchdowns better than the Jets. Agreed. Maybe. I mean, this is a soft maybe, not a firm maybe. Soft as hell maybe.

All right. Next game is Tennessee, five-and-a-half-point road favorites at the Cincinnati Bengals who can't stop covering games. What do you like? Yeah, they've been covering machines. I guess at some point you think they're going to stop covering these stop covering these games look i lean the bangles here for a lot of reasons one is that you know everyone's gonna bet tennessee in this spot you know awful loss uh and the bangles just aren't very good so everyone everyone's gonna bet tennessee right

there's just a ton of money pouring on tennessee opened at four it's now five and a half um but the tennessee titans cannot stop a soul mat they are terrible on third down this is the reason I liked them last weekend excuse me the Seahawks last weekend because the Titans are terrible in the first half Pittsburgh was seven for seven on third down and so I'm thinking Burrow's gonna backdoor cover this game I don't that's like my best angle for the Bengals because otherwise there's no other angle to give right they're not very good anywhere I can't – that's like my best angle for the Bengals because otherwise there's no other angle to give, right? They're not very good anywhere. I can't say, oh, look, look at this position.

They're really going to do well, except Burrow. Burrow's playing out of his mind 400 yards last weekend and didn't cover. I get that, but let the team down. With 60 seconds left, they're winning. They're covering that game. So I just think it's just – it's going to be – it's the first cold weather weekend in the NFL.

It's going to be a little bit cold, chilly this weekend. Titans are coming from Nashville. I don't know. It just feels like it's the classic home dog game, which we talked about. I'm not sure these are covering very much anymore. Yeah. Well, what's kind of interesting is Tennessee, as good as they've been, they haven't been a good against the spread team this year.

They're only two and four. Because their defense sucks. Yeah. They can't stop stop anybody and they've had just like some weird ass games like guskowski has been all over the map so good bad killing betters saving betters saved us last week um and since he's been five and two and the thing that's kind of weird about this is they're not close in terms of talent level in terms of performance in terms of talent level, in terms of performance, in terms of coaching. And like this one, I'm on the, I think I'm on the other side here. And partially something is going on with Cincinnati. Like you would think that they would be a team

that's like rallying around their young quarterback. You watch the games, you like watch their body language. They all seem to hate each other. Like something's going on there. Like, I mean, it's worse than Dallas obviously, but there's something off. Well, they're getting rid of,

they got rid of some of those guys though. They did. I mean, yeah, but like Gino Atkins is still there. AJ Green is still there. And I think that the, I think the Joe Mixon,

I think him being out, like really hurts them in a game like this. Like I could see Tennessee doing what they do, scoring right away. Then like, okay. You know, they try to start a running game. It goes three and out. Then Tennessee moves again, like this like i could see tennessee doing what they do scoring right away then like okay you know they try to start a running game it goes three and out then tennessee moves again like right down the field and all of a sudden like burrow's just going to be you know running for his life again i don't

he's covered every week almost so it's hard to say that this won't be the week but it's like tennessee has got it is going to start to cover some of these games and cincinnati is just bad man they're 30th in dvoa i i don't i i'm i think i'm on the other side here but that line i'm not a huge fan of five and a half that's it's pretty well no we would not bet the titans i think the play is only just the bangles are just passed and i'm okay with passing right now yeah let's pass it good luck to to the Bengals. Although I don't mind the Titans either. All right, next up, we've got, this is a fun one, but a hard one to handicap.

It's the Rams laying three and a half playing the Dolphins in Tua's debut. Money and bets are pretty split here, about 50-50 each. So I think the play is the Rams here, Matt. And I'll give you a couple reasons why uh one is we talked about this earlier this season uh they're seven and one in this early time slot on the east coast like this has not phased them the idea that that these west coast teams now can't play these games is this is not true and the rams the one they lost was the bills game where they

had a chance to to win that game with that pi at the very end that cost them a chance to win on that on that big comeback. But here's why I like the Rams this weekend. One is, obviously, I think they proved that they're back to playing decent football after that Niners loss, which I was a little concerned about. They're a good football team. We talked about this all season long. But the Dolphins are 32nd against the run.

I guess it was really good against the run, the Rams. Number one in the NFL against the Rams. rams number one in the nfl gets the rams so i think that advantage is huge here plus two uh i mean he's his first game after getting after getting crushed the last time he started a football game when he dislocated his hip yeah i just i don't know what to expect from him i don't know how you can bet on the dolphins all in this game i feel very comfortable with the r Rams here minus the three and a half it's interesting I was probably gonna pass this but I think you may have talked me into it I think the other the other thing to consider here is like if this were Fitzpatrick I'm pretty sure that this would probably be like four and a half and I would be hammering the Dolphins because

you know how I feel about betting the Dolphins fitzpatrick i feel like they're giving to a little boost here simply because of how good burrow's been and how good herbert's been we don't know if two is going to be good and like they're not doing this because this was the plan it seems like right like this seems like this was the plan to put two in after the buy because clearly like fit Fitzpatrick didn't do anything badly that he's been incredible for them and they're you know they're a legitimate playoff team at the moment so I agree it feels like there could potentially be some growing pains um he you know Tua looked yeah he looked a little a beat slow in that in that you know series he played against the Jets like I for some reason I was watching I think it was the only game on. And he was like, not the crispest coming out, you know,

against a really bad defense. So I think I'm with you. I mean, I just think you have Aaron Donald again. I mean, the dolphins were 25th in past blocking according to pro football focus. They're not much better in run blocking. So I just, I think that you're looking at a situation where you just have a better, a better trench matchup, the Rams against the Dolphins. Better defense with the Rams against two of the first time. I feel good.

Three and a half isn't my favorite number in the world. But look, they don't have Fitz anymore. Fitz was their covering machine. Typically, you fade rookies in their first game against a good team. I agree. Shout out to the dolphins though man they have such like a fun group of specialists of like guys no one's heard of but are really good like preston williams and miles gaskin and mike gasecki like they have a fun little team well they're good i

mean they're good they're well coached that's why yeah all right let's put the rams in and into the tier above the maybes that feels like they're probably yes um all right next one is uh god a game i just already dread that we're definitely gonna pick and i know we're no we i promise you we aren't we're not taking the colts they're only laying two and a half against the line we have dude we have been off the colts this entire podcast why now are we on the colts all of a sudden matt patricia could be why I mean I hate betting on Philip Rivers uh you know this is one of those where you're a big DVOA guy Jeff and this is a DVOA game Indy is fifth in DVOA I don't get I don't get that I don't get that man I don't

either their offense their offense sucks but I you know detroit i think everyone is like feeling pretty good about because they beat jacksonville and they beat atlanta like are we sure that actually matters the colts are coming off of a buy frank reich has won both games off of a buy in his head coaching career and has covered both spreads um i think some some in some places you could say one oh and one yeah um feels like a good sell high opportunity on detroit who i think is like a very below average team if indy is as good as everyone says they are this feels like they could easily win this one going away oh man i was hoping you were going to convince me not to bet this game i mean this is one where i think you have to like two and a half if if the colts are

that good if they're a top seven team which everyone but us thinks this is a this is like not a game we're going to be sweating too much yeah that's a good point daniel lofsky tweeted out that he thinks that the the lines make some structural changes on offense and that's what assuming on on um in general and that's why he said here that um they're they play more zone coverage jeff akuta's playing really well all right i mean i i could put the colts down as a maybe i'm good with that i was that one pick a week for the matt ford special i don't know if this is going to be mine but well i i do think that the colts are the right side here i look we matt patricia i mean remember they beat the jags and they beat the Falcons in a game that they lost 10 different times.

Like, they're not a good team. I'm with you, buddy. I agree. They have problems. Yeah. All right. Well, speaking of bad teams, the New England Patriots. That's a fun segue I haven't been able to do in 22 years.

They're three and a half point dogs at Buffalo. And spoiler alert here, I have no interest in touching this. Yeah, we could just pass this one. I'm out. Same with you. I know I'm out. I don't want to do this game at all. What would you take if you had to take a side?

I would probably lean i probably lean buffalo here i think just the the patriots are just they're just having issues right now but it's very simple but i don't want to bet the bills yeah i know there's part of me that's like is this an opportunity to bet buffalo but like they've been so up and down and it feels like they can never cover anything they They're always kicking field goals, Patriots, you know, they're going to get it right at some point,

but yeah, let's, let's lay off this one. The next one, I'm a little worried. I think we're on different sides. This is the Raiders plus two and a half at the Browns. What's your,

what side are you? So you go first because I want to, I'm looking at one more thing that I, I knew I should have looked up earlier. So I make your pitch for the Vegas Raiders. You're going to be wrong, and I'll tell you why. Go ahead. Boom.

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So, first of all, Vegas last week was close with Tampa pretty much the whole game. It got away from them at the end, but despite all of the offensive line problems with COVID, Trent Brown being out, and the rest of the offensive line not really being able to practice, they were still in that game against a team that you yourself say is the best team in the league. The Browns are coming off a miraculous win against the Bengals, one of the worst teams in the league, where they had to pull that one out of their ass and they lost their top receiving weapon for the season.

I think everyone watched the Browns play last week and everyone wants the Browns to be good. So they like to bet on them. But meanwhile, the Raiders are, I think they've shown to be a pretty good team that's played with top competition this year. These teams are next to each other in DVOA. And again, this is that stat from earlier.

Road dogs of six or fewer are 27-12 against spread this year. I think this is a really good buy low spot for the Raiders and a good sell high spot on the Browns. Hear me out on the Browns. I think I have to make a compelling case here. So a couple of things. Derek Carr has not been good with a little colder outside. All right. We know that in the past, he's now 0-10 in games with the temp is under 50 degrees.

It's supposed to be 51 in Cleveland. So I'm kind of stretching it a little bit here. It's supposed to be raining, cold, windy, 51 degrees. Might get even colder by be 51 in Cleveland. So I'm kind of stretching it a little bit here. It's supposed to be raining, cold, windy, 51 degrees. It might get even colder by kickoff in Cleveland. So right now I'm like, okay, Raiders passing game. A little hampered with this. Let's talk about the Browns really quick before we get back to the Raiders. Let's talk about the Browns, okay?

So their style of play is run the football. This is their style of play to win, right? Run the football and put Baker in situations to pass the ball, play action pass, bootleg, keep out of third down. Cleveland Browns offensive line is ranked number one by pro football focus in running the football, run blocking, and pass protection. The Raiders are terrible against the run. They're terrible at pass rush.

They're bad at all the things that the Browns are really good at. The Browns will be able to control the tempo and pace of this game, and they'll win this game by a touchdown doing so, right? They're going to keep Baker Mayfield upright. They run the football. On the flip side, like I mentioned,

the Raiders pass the ball. They play okay this year, but the deep passing game, which is what they've relied on to beat the Chiefs, wasn't really there last weekend. Take out the first two weeks of the ball. They play okay this year. But the deep passing game, which is what they've relied on to beat the Chiefs, wasn't really there last weekend. Take out the first two weeks of the season. They've scored 23-20-20. And that 40-point game against the Chiefs where the Chiefs just said,

hey, look, we're going to not allow Carter to throw anything underneath and we're going to test him out deep. And he did it deep. So now I get rain, wind, cold, and the Raiders' only chance to score a bunch of points is deep passing because they can't run the football anymore i think the browns are the are the play here man um and so i i look you can take the raiders as a public play with derrick carr in the rain and cold if you would like if that's the play you want to make

be my guest to do that. But I like the Browns here. I just think that they played well against good to bad teams. They played poorly against the Ravens Steelers. The Raiders are just a good team. They're just like, okay. So we'll go with the Browns here. Pretty good case, Jeff.

Pretty good case. Vegas 31st in defensive DVOA. Not great. You're right that the offense has been good, but they haven't played a cold weather game. The thing that's so crazy about the Raiders is like, they've made these reclamation projects work. Like, you know, Nelson Aguilar is like unstoppable all of a sudden,

which is just hilarious for Philly. You're right. Like, in those cold weather games, it's a little harder to do that vertical stuff. All right, I'll do it. It feels like the Raiders tend to play to their competition, which has benefited them because they've played some pretty good teams.

Cleveland, three and four against the spread this year. Raiders, three and three. So yeah, this is probably a pretty fair line, but you're right. If the public's all over the Raiders 3-3. So yeah, this is probably a pretty fair line, but you're right. If the public's all over the Raiders, then yeah, let's do it. Let's take the Browns. Let's go to the next one.

I like the Browns here. Next one, we've got Minnesota going to the Packers. Minnesota, a team that was in disarray earlier coming off a bye, six and a half points for Green Bay. What do you think? Until I by uh six and a half points for green bay what do you think until i saw the six and a half points and then i'm like uh i'm in on the packers so um here's here's why i mean it's the same kind of thing we've been saying all year i mean it's not they have crushed the bad teams they've played they've crushed them and guess what the vikings are a bad

team in a fire sale right now right right? They traded Gawkway. I think they cut a secondary player who wasn't playing well for them anyways. They're in full, like, let's just get to next year mode, in my opinion. They have not been good. They played against the Falcons. Off a bye. Off a bye. They've won one of the last six games.

I know this is not straight up, but they've not been good off a bye. Everyone's like, off a bye. They haven't been good off a bye. So I get the packers who stop them this time around you know i came into this wanting to pick the vikings uh because you know i think that everyone's down on them and they have a great coach you know traditionally what scares me is kirk cousins and mike zimmer might be playing for their careers legitimately. Like you could see. Both just got new extensions. Well, Cousins, I mean, those can go sour. I think, yeah, I think you're right. I mean, the thing with Green Bay that kind of scares me is they're analytically,

they're only 10th in DVOA despite how dominant they've looked on offense. And they have the personnel on defense yeah they have the personnel on defense but for whatever reason they haven't really put it together um I hate that this is like this is so if you're right that that Minnesota is just is blowing it up that you know the Ngakwe thing just just didn't work out for whatever reason. Shout out to Maryland grad Yannick Ngakwe. I think the other way to look at this is Minnesota has their back against the wall. They're playing a division game. They had their back against the wall against the Falcons and lost. Yeah.

All right. I'm in. Also, too, let me pull this up to just pile on even more. By the way, a lot of games this weekend, I like the over. Where's my stats here, too? The Packers have covered three straight against this team as well. So they're just – I just don't think the Vikings are very good. And six and a half is better than seven.

I thought it was going to be seven or seven and a half. I'll take six and a half. Yeah, let's do it. I'm in. Any chance i get to take the packers as a favorite i i feel like i always bet it um i can't i can't quit aaron rogers let's do it nope i can't either all right next game all right all right you just talked me into two in a row that's uh that's that's pretty good um all right this one i have a very strong opinion about. It's the Chargers three-point road favorites at Denver. What's that? I have no opinion on this game whatsoever. Be my guest to make your case. I think I know which way you're going to go, but go ahead. that's very unproven this season. That's the first red flag. You almost always hold your nose

whenever a two and four team is favored on the road in Denver, by the way, which is a notoriously difficult place to win. Look, we're coming off Justin Herbert's first win. The Chargers, super under the radar this season, Jeff. They're five and one against the spread. They have the best against the spread record in the league along with Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

That's a team that now all of a sudden, everyone who's bet the Chargers every week has that good feeling about them, right? Oh, it's the Chargers. Herbert, they've been covering. I'm going to keep riding with the Chargers. It's going to come to a close at some point, and I think this is the week.

Very difficult to win in Denver. Denver is, I think, probably the better team overall. Obviously, the quarterback thing is a little bit of a problem. But Herbert's going against the seventh best defense in DVOA this week. I think this is just one of those where the spot doesn't even really totally matter what the teams are. This is one of those where you just hold your nose and you bet the Chargers and you fade a team that's riding really high. You bet the Broncos.

I'm sorry, you bet the Broncos, yep. Oh, boy. I mean, you're not wrong about what you said. This is the one you love this week, right? Yeah, I mean, so you talk about the cold weather games. Like, Justin Herbert, he's going to go to Denver. He's going to go to Mile High and come off of a win where he's valued super high and go win this game.

He's the favorite. I'm just really concerned about drew lock in that offense. I mean, the Chargers score 17, 21 points. I mean, is Denver going to score 17 points? I mean,

Denver has had, they've had such an up and down season. I feel like it's hard to ever predict like exactly where – how they're – what team is going to show up. Yeah, I mean, they've – their only 30-point explosion was against the Jets. That doesn't really count. But they did put up that 21 against the Steelers. Yeah, I don't know. This is just –

If you look, every week we save – every week we save a pick for the one you like the most because you've been right on a lot of these and so i want to save you this pick so if you love if you love the broncos i'm gonna put them in it's a hold your nose in bed game yep let's do it okay all right matt loves it we're in we're in okay let's go all right we've got a few more left and it sounds like we have three and a couple of maybes uh next up is saints bears four and a half points for the saints at chicago oh boy oh boy this is talking about hold your nose and bet game right here right i mean the play is the bears but i'm not betting the bears i'm not doing it so we're just off this game it's not happening nope not touching it no thanks no thank you look um nate tice who i love following on twitter he's fantastic by the way go follow

i think it's at nate ticer and underscore nate uh nate underscore tice my tice's son um dude he's a great follow on twitter matt go follow him he's fantastic he compared drew brees throwing the ball this past weekend to a jamie moyer fast Okay. Like the ball just like, okay. Yep. And he's going to soldier field this weekend where it's going to be miserably cold and it's going to be windy. And I would love to bet the bears here. I would so would love to bet the bears, but man,

their, their offense is so much of a perfect. I can't do it. Like I just, I just can't do it. So I'm going to be out I just can't do it. So I'm going to be out on this game whatsoever. I'm with you. Let's pass it. Yeah, no chance of my taking the Bears.

Okay, next up, Niners at Seahawks. Seahawks three-point favorites. Feels like a surprising line. A week ago, this would not have been the line. What do you think? The line, I think, opened here at 5, and shot all the way down to 3 after the open at 5. It's actually

3 in the Supercon. It's down to 2.5 now for the Niners. The value here is not on the Niners exactly, but I like the Niners here, Matt, in this situation for a couple reasons. One is that, you know, Seattle right now, home field advantage is not a thing in the NFL anymore, right?

Especially this season with no fans. They're 5-9 against the spread at home in the last 14 games. It's very un-Seattle-like, but they just, they're not very good at home anymore. Niners, by the way, are 10-2 against the spread on the road. So get the trends out of the way. But the bigger point about why the Seahawks, in my opinion, are 5-9 against the spread at home is they're very bad on defense. And you can't get stops.

You can't cover football games. And their defense cannot get stops. Carlos Dunlap is not even playing this weekend. He doesn't, in my opinion, doesn't add very much to this. Seattle's defense, 25th on third doesn't add very much to this. Seattle's defense, 25th on third down. They get no pressure whatsoever. They're 30th in passing defense.

I don't understand how we expect them to stop the Niners, who, by the way, I was off on them a couple weeks ago. They went from 22nd in offense in EPA the last two weeks against two good defenses, right? The Rams and Niners. They're seventh in offense. Their offense is now kind of getting back in the rhythm. Jimmy G is healthier now. They've had some injuries.

It's unfortunate on their offense. But they're kind of just the Shanahan thing is kind of going now, man. Like the screens, the runs, the passes, the deep passes. Okay, Kittle. Jamal Adams might be back, which will help for Seattle's defense as well. But how healthy can he be? Seattle's going to score points, don't get me wrong. But the Niners defense, by the way,

eighth in DVOA, like they're okay on defense. So the Niners, in my opinion, get enough stops in this game for them to cover it. I think they kind of might win outright, but I'll take the three points. Yeah, I'm with you. Let's do it. I also think a pretty underrated piece of this

is the Chris Carson injury. Chris Carson has been, is, is I think underrated in general. Uh, just, I just had his, uh, average yards per carry up, but he's been super effective for them. He's averaging almost five yards of carry this year. He's week to week. He, you know, he might not play. Um, yeah, San Francisco. I think this is one of those where we all watch them earlier in the year. They look terrible. Everyone wrote them off. And for the last couple of weeks, if you were on them, which we have been a few times, you're getting some sneaky value. And this is one of those spots where you're right.

Like Seattle, every single game, they're letting teams back into it. They're having to do some heroics late. And, you know, if the niners can sort of clamp down early then then they could steal this one and win outright this is a fun money line play uh it is a fun one but so next up jeff nfc's battle of the century the cowboys uh are going to the eagles uh the cowboys are seven and a half point dogs to Philadelphia. Are we doing this? Seven and a half feels too much, dude. Right?

Or am I crazy? Am I crazy? Because I actually don't feel like it's that much. Andy Dalton's probably not going to play this week. So they have a third string quarterback from JMU coming in there. The Eagles are getting healthier. Okay. Every single one of their injuries

that the only one that doesn't seem to be training in the right direction is alshon jeffrey but it's possible that miles sanders and lane johnson are going to play this week what do the cowboys do well like i think this you could make this 14 points and i'd be like that's yeah that makes sense i feel like for whatever reason vegas is a little bit behind on taking out the impact of Dak and now even the impact of Dalton here. I have a feeling this is going to get to like 10. So this is a weird game to say that I like, but I think I do really like Philly here with a quarterback that is going to just be completely over his head and a team that just looks completely lifeless oh man i mean the eagles barely beat the giants the other day the giants are significantly better than this cowboys team with this i i'm sorry i keep blanking on the quarterback's name who doesn't matter that's the point of your discussion um believe it or not um dallas is 31 in dvoa and eagles have actually moved up to to uh to 25 now i think you're i i think you're right here but oh geez the hook is just brutal i mean this is like a what a 28 10 game something like that i mean can dallas dallas gave up 30

plus to the washington football team last week who seems like I don't think they had scored 30 points the whole season. Like, their defense is, like, their defense is, like, tragic. Like, you watch them and you're like, what happened to this team? And, look, I know, I think they're getting the center back. That might help. But, like, Ben DiNucci against Fletcher Cox? Like, are we dumb for not taking the seven and a half? It's almost one of those like too good to be true lines, right?

Yeah. It just feels too easy. But why? Like, I don't know. I think we should consider this. I put it down in the group of bets we have so far. Yeah. I think, I mean, I would rather take this than the 19 and a half of the Chiefs.

I didn't even put the Chiefs down. That was just, kidding i didn't put that down all right we got one more game i think that uh neither of us want it yeah this is the monday night game the bucks are at the giants everyone's going to be on the bucks even though they're 10 and a half point favorites and we are sure as hell not taking the giants right no we're sure i'm not taking the bucks okay so we're laying off of that one. So now we can just move to the maybes. So here we go. Here's the games that we have written down. So we have Baltimore minus four, and then that's a maybe, correct? Yeah.

We have Indy minus two and a half as a maybe. I have the Rams as a yes, correct? Minus three and a half. Cleveland minus two and a half. Green Bay minus six and a half is a yes. And Denver minus three is a yes. Plus we have San Francisco plus three and Philly minus seven and a half. So you love Philly.

I love San Francisco. Um, what do you want to do here? So, I mean, we don't have to do, we don't have to do Indy and Denver. I feel like I was strong on each of those.

I would be happy to lose one of them if you felt better about something else. Which one of those two do you like best? Indy, Offa, Bye, going to Detroit, Inside, so Rivers Arm will be fine. Yeah, let's take that one. Instead of Denver? The Denver one is a situational one that I feel like could just go wrong immediately. All right, so Indy minus two and a half.

And then, so what do you want to do? San Francisco minus three or Philly minus seven? Or do you want to do Baltimore? I feel like Baltimore. I just want to stay away from that game. Do we have the rams locked in i've i we don't i mean we could get rid of them i guess i i don't i just think the rams i mean when we take when we take the opportunity to bet to take a team with a with a top 10 dvoa um their seventh by the way a dvoa and bet them against a rookie quarterback yeah all right three

and a half points i feel like that that's just like i mean i know that burrow and two have done a good job so far but typically not all rookie quarterbacks play well yeah so okay so we've got four we've got the rams we got the colts we got the browns we got the packers yeah and then we're deciding between denver san francisco, Baltimore, and Philly. Yeah. And by the way, we can also do what we've done in the past, which is like leave this open. Well, let's make a call for the show. Let's make a call for the show.

And then we can always change offline, but let's see. Which one do you feel least good about? I think Baltimore is the one I would probably feel the least confident about. Yeah, I'm throwing Baltimore out. I just don't want to bet. I think Baltimore I'm throwing Baltimore out. I just don't want to bet. I think Baltimore is the right side, but I just don't want to bet that game. I feel gross about it.

Yep, me too. I think Denver is a good spot. I think San Francisco, you made a very good case. And I think Philly could be one that we just – I feel like Philly is going to absolutely torch Dallas, but it's also Philly. So, you know, Carson Wentz sometimes lays an egg against sloppy competition. So why don't we lose that? I mean, yeah, there are public – oh, geez. We're going to regret not taking Philly and the Chiefs probably.

Let's take – I'd be fine taking Philly and not – I feel like we go against Seattle every week, and it sucks. I hate going against Seattle because every week, Russ comes down to the field in the fourth quarter and murders me. Every single week. And we're not getting a great line either because I open at five. Let's pass that. All right.

So you want Philly in there? Philly or Denver. They were my favorites. So I'd rather have Denver. I'd rather have Philly, by the way. The Chargers have good pieces, and Herbert's playing really good football. I just don't trust Drew Locke at all, like 0%.

I trust Carson Wentz over Drew Locke. Dude, let's fade Ben DiNucci on the road. Like, Philly's off a bye. Let's go. No, off a short week. Short week. I mean, a Thursday game. Oh, a mini-bye.

Excuse me, yeah. Thursday game. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, sorry. Okay, so Rams minus 3.5. I just face-planted like Daniel Jones. Excuse me. Thursday game. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, sorry. Okay, so Rams minus three and a half. I just face-planted like Daniel Jones. Excuse me. Rams minus three and a half.

Yep. Cleveland minus two and a half. Packers minus six and a half. Indy minus two and a half. Philly minus seven and a half. Let's go. All favorites. I like it.

I feel good about these. Yeah. We're going against some bad coaches and some bad quarterbacks. I like that combo with the exception of flores yeah but they just i just don't again like i don't understand why the line is three and a half that's the right play i'm like i'm in i mean like i mean look at like i mean indy is it's getting indy's only uh what two and a half point favorite home against i mean on the road against like what i just don't understand what so the rams would be what two and a half point favorite in detroit too like i don't i don't

understand this line makes no sense to me yeah neither of them makes sense to me yeah so all right well we're good with that okay guys oh it's a painful week we got there i will say this there if you like a teaser such as those things um steelers eagles packers done that to me feels like where you need to be with a teaser um it just feels like a good teaser but you're getting steelers at what and obviously your book might vary on the lines but you're getting them at nine or ten you're getting the eagles down to to one and a half or two and get the packers all the way down to to a point like that feels like it's plus 150, I believe. It feels like some money there.

Yeah, maybe throw in the Chiefs with 13 and a half. That's not bad. Yeah, I'd probably stay away from that. Just out of principle from that game. So, all right, guys. Hopefully another winning week. We're climbing up there, right? Climbing up there a little bit.

18, 15 and one. We're chopping that wood. All right, guys. Have a great couple of days. We'll be back on Tuesday. All right, guys. Have a great couple of days. We'll be back on Tuesday. Make sure, everyone, real quickly, go vote. Okay? Go vote. I know we don't talk about politics very much here. It's not political at all.

Go vote. All right? Just go vote. It's our right as citizens to go vote in any election. Go do it, please. Early vote. Send a ballot in. Whatever you do, just go vote. And vote for whoever you want. Just go ahead and do it, please. I think our vote. Send a ballot in. Whatever you do, just go vote. And vote for whoever you want. Just go ahead and do it, please. I think our country does not have enough people to vote.

We should all vote. We should all have a federal holiday, by the way, on Tuesday. That's a maybe different podcast. But nonetheless, everyone, go vote. Enjoy your weekend. Enjoy the football. Be back Tuesday morning with Gabe. Have a great weekend, everybody.