Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Best NFL Bets: Week 9

Episode Date: November 5, 2020

Matt and Geoff are back with another Supercontest show. They discuss the full slate of NFL games and narrow it down to their five favorite bets for week 9. After 3 straight winning weeks they hit a road bump going 2-3 this week. Time to bounce back! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday november 5th the world is a crazy place but we are here to talk to you about the nfl weekend ahead i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this is our thursday and really our preview for the weekend our gambling show off of two and three week last week we're 18 excuse me we're 20 18 and 2 i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford matt how are we doing, buddy? I'm good, man. It's nice to toggle back to football. We were just, before the show, a bunch of results from Maricopa, Arizona. Maricopa County, Arizona came in, and I'm just glad to be back at my wheelhouse of knowing who David Blau is for the Detroit Lions. And so we'll be starting this week. Like, let me put my brain to this. I'm good with returns. I'm good with John King.

Like, let's just get back to football. I'm ready. I'm, I'm with you there. We will stick to all football here. Do not worry about that. We'll go through all the games.

We'll talk about the lines, the spreads, the totals, give you some props if we like them. And let's start out with the Thursday night football game, which just feels like a game that the NFL probably should cancel, but they're not going to do it. So they're going to play off.

We don't know if they're going to cancel it. At this time, Wednesday night, they are not, despite two 49ers starters coming down with COVID or being told to quarantine or whatever. So the line we get at the super contest is Green Bay, six and a half point road favorites at San Francisco. I assume we're probably not touching this, but I'll give you the Lord case. No.

And Nick puts a note in here. Rogers covered 75% of his Thursday games in his career. And we know that they've responded well against the spread after a loss, something like, you know, like 14-18 or something crazy like that. I don't want to touch this game. We stay away from Thursday games for a reason. Too much uncertainty in this game. The Niners can just run the ball in the Packers.

I mean, I think they can still move the ball well enough in this game. I think just full stay away. Yeah, Green Bay had a lot of trouble stopping San Francisco's run last year. So it's just something's off here. Let's lay out. Okay, one game down, no picks. One of these weeks we're going to pick a Thursday night game. One of these weeks.

It ain't going to be this week. This is a game I don't have a great feel for. Seattle, three-point road favorites at Buffalo. I'm curious if you've got a lean here. Yeah, I really like Seattle've got a lean here. Yeah, I really like Seattle here for a couple reasons. You know, one, I think offensively, right, they're just fabulous, right? They keep scoring points each and every weekend, right?

Nobody's been able to slow them down. And right now we look at the defense for the Bills. They're 23rd in DVOA. They're kind of like 23rd in pass defense, 27th against the run. I mean, they just haven't been a defense able to get pressure to stop the quarterback and do anything else. So Russell Wilson going now on the road. And each week we say he's on the road, he's going here, he's going there, he's not going to score, he's not going to score. And Matt, every week they just score a bunch of points, right? They score a ton of points each and every weekend. On the flip side though, this is where I think it's important to start discussing Seattle

a little bit differently. Defensively, they were a wreck, okay? They gave up a lot of yards. But each week, Matt, they kind of slowly start climbing up those DVOA charts, right? Now they're 21st in DVOA. Jamal Adams should be playing this weekend, a huge plus for them as well. Carlos Dunlop, who they traded for. They have no pass rush, and they have a better pass rush with Carlos Dunlop.

But here is the reason why I knowez defense will play well this week. So starting with the Titans' loss in Week 5, teams are now just sitting back in zone against Josh Allen and forcing Josh Allen to beat him, basically beat them by being a prolific passing quarterback. Their DVOA on, excuse me, their passing EPA, expected points added, was number two in the NFL through the first four weeks.

The next four weeks dropped to 20th. Like they're just getting worse. The Bills are getting worse. Seahawks are getting better, in my opinion. The Bills offense has not looked good for a couple of weeks now, right? Titans, Chiefs, Jets, Patriots, just like blah.

I think Seattle easily covers the three here. I'm in. I was sort of on the fence, but I, just like blah. I think Seattle easily covers the three here. I'm in. I was sort of on the fence, but I think you're right. Definitely the upgrades on defense really help. Seattle, it feels like, I feel like we've been against Seattle so many times this season. I hate being against Seattle.

I'm eager to take them. And this is a good spot. And by the way, Buffalo, three and five against the spread this year. Seattle, even though they seem to be favored by a decent number every week, 5-2 against the spread. They've been pretty reliable. The weather should be good.

It's nice and warm here in New York. So I think that this is a good spot. Yeah, I'm looking at it right now. 63 at kickoff, low amount of wind. Yeah, I was impressive showing by Seattle last week too. Even with Chris Carson. Yeah yeah they played really well i mean think about it they were all pretty big until you know those garbage time yards came in um so you know i just i i just don't expect them to um the bills defense to just do very much and offensively like i said they went from second to 20th in four in four weeks epa it's

not good yeah it seems like the teams have definitely got a read on josh allen and uh yeah that's probably not yeah not too surprising um okay next one is an interesting game uh the team that uh that won a close game at the end in a fluky manner against a team that always loses them denver is three and a half point uh underdogs on the road at atlanta interesting matchup feel like these teams never play i mean they play once every four years so um obviously not in the play the 98th super bowl right falcons dirty bird yeah a little dirty bird Yeah. A little dirty bird action, right? A little dirty bird. I have no idea what to do in this game, right? I mean, I swore off the Falcons. We've talked about this many times. What do you get from Denver? I mean, last weekend was great and all, but they're probably

the Chargers who blow leads every week, which ironically the Falcons blow a bunch of leads too, but they actually look kind of competent against the Pan against the Panthers. A couple of years ago, Raheem Morris, by the way, is, is what is one weird play away. Todd Gurley just falling down from three and oh, now as a Falcons head coach. Now they,

they would have covered that game against the lions, but they would have won that game. So I think other fans are trending up. The Broncos are just, in my opinion, just kind of like flap. I don't know if I want to touch this game. I'm leaning Denver.

I'm not sure i would put it in denver five and two against the spread this year competitive every single week uh their offense still 30th and dvoa but this addition of philip lindsey you just watch them and all of a sudden like it seems like their whole team opens up he seems to be breaking long ones all over the place kj hamler the rookie big catch last week obviously they have all these other young guys albert aquabonom i'm gonna say that that was drew lock's college tight end got it got a touchdown last week uh denver three and oh is a road dog atlanta oh and four at home against the spread oh and four is a favorite i think the play is denver but i don't feel great about it um yeah i think there's

other better options on the board so let's let's move on i just really wanted to say that tight that i practiced um next up we've got chicago at tennessee in a i mean what do we do with this one five and a half uh for tennessee at home so the bears are five and three against the spread they're one of the better teams in the nfl this against the spread. And part of that is their defense, right? The number one third down defense in the NFL right now. And the Tennessee Titans have been a different offense without Taylor Luan on the field, their left tackle. Right now, two straight weeks he has not played out for the season, by the way.

Ryan Tannehill has dropped to 60% completion percentage and actually in both games. He's 18-30 against the Steelers and the Bengals for only 220 yards and then 233 yards. The offense just not as good without the left tackle. Now they get the Bears defense, right? Khalil Mack, Akeem Hicks, Floyd. How are they going to move the ball at all here, right?

Not going to move the ball very much in this game. On the flip side, the Bears offense we know stinks. But guess what also stinks? The Tennessee Titans defense defense 32nd in the NFL on third down the Bengals were 10 for 15 last weekend on third down against the Titans so I want to back the Bears here I just think that you look at those two matchups Titans are not going to score a lot of points and Nick Foles against a bad third down defense I think just does enough to keep this game close enough to where I feel comfortable taking the Bears here man I well look this number is at

five and a half it's actually a really good number if you like Tennessee it's at six and some other places so we're not getting the best of the number for the Bears this feels like a game of who's gonna blow it is it gonna be Tennessee's defense which like last week yeah who's going to blow it. Is it going to be Tennessee's defense, which like last week, was it going to be Nick Foles? And Tennessee 2-5 against the spread this year, despite being a really good team, which worries me a lot. But are they though? I mean, like good teams don't go 2-5 against the spread. I mean, they've had some fluky ass kicks.

Like it honestly feels like, you know, I don't have it in front of me, but if Kostowski hits a couple of gimmies or a couple of even makeable ones, then yeah, the week one Kostowski hits a couple of gimmies or a couple of even makeable ones, then yeah, the week one game, they had a couple others where if Kostowski had just been even adequate, they would be looking better. The Broncos game week one. Yeah, so I think, I don't know.

It feels like if you're betting this one, you take Tennessee with this number. So I don't know. Wow. Would this sway your opinion here? A little reverse line movement, actually. with this number. So I don't know. Wow. Uh, it would, would this, would this, would this sway your opinion here? Um, a little reverse line movement,

actually, or 79% of the money on Tennessee, 21% on the bears and the bears. The line is moving in the bears direction. There's a better example of reverse line movement later that I'm going to like, but I don't know. It's only 50%.

It's in 20%. Like it's not a, it's not a huge amount of money. Um, I'll put them in the maybes. I think the Bears are able to do this, but I'll put this in the maybe category for us right now. Yeah, that's fine with me. Because I don't like a lot of other ones at the moment.

Yeah. Well, this one might be one of them because this is a strange game. So the Matthew Stafford-less Detroit Lions are five-and-a-half-point underdogs at Minnesota. Stafford, obviously, on the COVID list. What do you think? Yeah. Oh, man. I mean, this is one of those games where, like, you'll obviously take the Vikings, right?

I mean, you have to take the Vikings here, right? But what if Stafford does play? What if they determine by Sunday he can play? Like, I feel like we're getting a terrible line there, right? Because the lines go all the way back down to four or three and a half. I am concerned that we take the Vikings here minus five and a half and Stafford plays, we get a terrible number. Yeah, that's possible.

I will say, though, if we don't get that and we're getting David Blau on the road, I feel like I bet on him last year. I actually feel like I liked him and talked myself into a game with him. But that aside, this line opened at three and a half. It's only two points different

with Stafford potentially out. If he is out, I feel like we have to take this, but we probably don't know enough yet. This is one of those where I think we can put it in the we'll decide on Sunday category. We'll pick four games. If we like five, we'll put five in, but we'll pick four and we'll decide on Sunday category. Like we'll pick four games.

If we like five, we'll put five in. But we'll pick four and we'll like leave this slot open to see what happens. Detroit also 21st rush defense at DVOA. Dalvin Cook murdered the Packers. Even if this was a fair fight and it was three and a half, I think I would like Minnesota. So that's saying something.

I think I would like Minnesota too. Again, I'm worried about getting just a really bad number here if staffer comes back in place so i'm good i think we still have a provision a provisionary one right like we'll see do you think the vikings have that's just free like turn to turn to corner a little bit maybe i mean green bay seems it's a green yeah i mean green bay seems to always have their number. And the formula that anybody who's watched Kirk Cousins play a lot, like anyone from Washington, is if you can get a good run game and then you can get the play action going and you can protect him, he's going to be good.

But when you have to rely on him to generate you 30 points through the air every week, you're not going to win. Oh, I'm with you buddy i agree hopefully they have turned the corner i'd like to see them compete in that division um okay next up a great game here tricky one for us because it's gonna toy with our emotions baltimore at indy indy short home favorite only land the two and a half do we i'm sorry short home dog they're two and a half point home dogs excuse me baltimore is a two and a half point road favorite at indianapolis do we take the home dog i would love i would love three a little better um i i kind of think like this is the principle

we have to do it right like this is what we talk about all the time. A short home dog with, right now, a lot of the – not more of the money, I should say, on Baltimore. Indianapolis's defense, by the way, we know, extremely good, right? Right now they are – they're third in DVOA. Ravens' defense, by the way, fifth in DVOA. But the Colts missed the least amount of tackles in the NFL. Like their defense is really sound.

And when you play the Ravens, obviously that's a huge part of playing the Ravens, right? But again, like Phillip Rivers, the Ravens pressure, like I don't, it's the game I'm toying with because I feel like I want to take the Colts, but we're kind of like anti-Colts on this podcast a little bit, even though we took them last weekend. I'm not quite sure if I feel great about them, but if you have an argument for the Colts, I'd love to hear it. Look, I hate, hate betting on Phillip Rivers.

I hate it. Every time the ball leaves his hands, I feel like it's a pick six. Sometimes it is. The thing with, I think Indy is the better team here which is hard because again i don't trust rivers baltimore's offensive dva is 20th we're nine weeks into the season and they've played some bad teams so and they're down there down their left tackle now that's a huge issue so yeah that, that's could be a big adjustment. They could come in here and get their asses handed to them. It would not shock me, but I also just can't coming off of a loss.

I don't know if I want to go against Lamar Jackson here, especially with rivers. Yeah. I'm looking at some notes here. I, man, this is, this one's tough because I think,

I think we, you know, we keep sleeping on, but I felt like Baltimore's one's tough because i think i think we you know we keep sleeping on i feel like baltimore teams we're like you know what they they can be really good they play good team and lose and it's like well i'm not sure they're really great and like i think that they are the better team but are they gonna are they gonna win are they gonna start winning some of these games i i don't yeah i don't know um this is this is one i would like to just watch and and learn, I think. Yeah. A good note from producer Nick here.

Teams that have played the Steelers this season haven't fared well in their following games. They're combined one and four straight up and two and three against the spread. Probably just they're physically beat up, which is what the Ravens are dealing with right now. So we'll keep this one off for now. I can't imagine Willie Sneed feeling too good after that last hit at the end of that game. That was such a fun finish. Okay. next up uh two teams close to your heart carolina ten and a half point underdogs at kansas city thoughts yeah i mean i the answer is the chiefs like i don't putrid i don't dude i i i mean i i don't think we should put this game in the thing, but I'm going to bet on Carolina here.

Dude, the Chiefs kick everyone's ass who's not a good football team, Matt. They do it all the time. They've covered like 16 of the last 20 games. They don't lose at home. They don't lose at home, at least to keep games close, at home against these teams. Like, what is Carolina going to do in this game to stay close, other than the Chiefs just getting bored with themselves?

Well, number one, let's talk about our friend Teddy Two Gloves, 21-5 against the spread in his career as an underdog. Our friends at Action Network would like to remind you that a road dog coming off of a straight-up loss this year, 24-13, an 0 against the spread. against the spread and a little, a little guy you might've heard of called Christian McCaffrey probably will be back this week, which means they could potentially hold the ball. At least this is, are the chiefs going to blow them out? By the way,

chiefs going into a buy. This is not a statement game for them. Okay. This is a win come out of this game. Healthy. This is not a conference opponent. Like just win and get out. I think that it,

and with the 10 and a half, I feel like this is a nice line. I mean, I, I mean, Kansas City steamrolls seems like Carolina. I mean, you're having to hope you're basically going to have to hope that the

chiefs just don't show up in this game because they have the bi-week. Like that's, that's your best bet here. It's not, there's no other, there's no other matchup where you're like, Oh man, the chiefs,

I mean, the chiefs, I've number one, they've never won past defense. Still, they have number one pass defense still. They're number one in offense DVOA. They're 13th on defense. They're fourth overall. I mean, Carolina is – I know Teddy covers a bunch.

So we're looking at like – this has to be something like 35, you know, 20 – what, 35-25? Like 38-28? I mean, are the Chiefs just not going to score a bunch of points in this game? Maybe. I don't know. I mean, it could be 34-24. Like, it could be 34-17 with six minutes left,

and Mahomes goes out, and the Cavaliers garbage-time touchdown. The Chiefs don't allow a lot of those, though, by the way. They don't allow a lot of garbage-time touchdowns because their pass rush likes to get after a little bit in those situations. All right, let's hold off here. We're split. It's not worth it. Yeah, let's hold off here.

Okay, next up. Next up is a game I don't even think we're going to discuss. Houston at Jacksonville. Houston laying seven with potentially no Gardner Minshew. Yeah yeah jake loon is a starter from oregon state a pac-12 guy uh yeah just this game just is the silliest thing of all time well i mean the seven is like well that's too much but like i don't know this i don't i don't even want to think about this game i i i would rather not i mean tex Texas have won their last five meetings against Jacksonville. Houston has won in six against the line this year,

which is terrible, obviously. And Jacksonville hasn't covered their last five games. This is just a game where you stay the heck away from. Yeah. Okay. Speaking of games that we should stay away from, the Giants are at washington washington is favored by two and a half at home i have a feeling we're gonna end up betting this

game and i don't know which side um oh jeez giants on the road after that game short week right against against against uh um off the tampa bay loss heartbreaking loss right playing opportunities Short week, right, against the Tampa Bay loss. Heartbreaking loss, right? Plain opportunity to win that game. Now go back on the road to arrested Washington team who's had a bye, right? They came off a bye. I get Washington under a field goal here.

They covered the first game. I think they were driving down to win that game, two-point conversion. But I have to bet on Kyle Allen again. Yeah. Ron Rivera, not great off a buy, below 500. And I'm not taking...

Not taking the Giants. No, not at all. No, the Giants, we have an anti-Giants stipulation on this podcast. What's concerning to me is, and I texted you this, Daniel Jones, 4-16 in his career,

3-0 against Washington. What is that? That's crazy, man. That's why I just think this is a shitty game to bet on. Yeah. I mean, I would say Washington if we had to, but I don't think we're reaching that hard. No, I don't think so.

But we're running out of games, man. There's not a lot left to do this week. This is a week where I like a couple of games and that's about it. And the Chiefs were not one of them, by the way. There's one other game that I really do like here. Okay. Let's see what it could be. I actually like a couple of these.

Okay. So the Raiders at the Chargers, it's a pick them. Yeah, it is a pick them. This was really fascinating to me because I can make an argument um yeah it is a pick-em um this was really fascinating to me because um i i i can make an argument in in both ways i mean the chargers cannot keep losing games like this right it's like impossible to keep losing games in the most heartbreaking fashion each and every

week right being up big and then just blowing each and every week so at some point you have to think okay they're going to start fast come out and just figure it out for once, right? They're just going to figure it out for once. And they're the better team, right? All their efficiency numbers are better. They're more explosive on offense. They have a better pass rush. They're better on defense.

Like, everything points in that direction. And you get, by the way, you get three points here because it's opened up. It's then favored by three. Now it's all the way down to a pick-em. So I have a hard time betting on them because of what's happening right they get to outright win this game and they've had problems doing that winning the football games but i think that's the right side to be on here

i i'm with you uh this one i if you had told me there was a bunch of line movement here i would have said it was probably on the raiders uh but it's the chargers are the right side uh first of all big concern on that raiders o-line their starting offensive line this year has played three snaps together and trent brown's gonna be out on this one incognito's gonna be gone for a while uh physical tough game last week against cleveland yeah where they ran it a thousand times to produce results now they have to fly back across the country against a team that with with Justin Herbert in your with your boy Justin Herbert in they're averaging 27 points a game the Chargers Chargers five and two

against the spread this year three and one against the spread this year after a loss I kind of think this is a good spot for them I think it's a good spot for them too. Again, I just worry that it's just this losing late games, man. At some point, it's got to change, right? I mean, they can't just keep losing. They can't keep losing these games, right? I think so. And it's like, you know,

remember that Vegas put up 16 points last week against the Browns. Like, they really need to score. And I think Herbert can put up a bunch of points on this Raiders day. Herbert is playing very well right now. Playing very well. All right, I'm going to put the Chargers in there. Yeah, let's put it into the next round at least. Boom, and there it is.

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Okay. Okay. Here it comes. Pittsburgh laying 14 at Dallas. Okay. Everyone's going to bet Pittsburgh this weekend and I hope we do not and I'll tell you why. Oh no.

No, I don't want to bet Dallas either. I'm not betting Dallas And I'll tell you why. Oh, no. No, I don't want to bet Dallas either. I'm not betting Dallas. No, no, no. I'll tell you why. This is this classic spot where Mike Tomlin's teams underperform. And I think historically they underperform. But this week, though, they probably won't. So if you want to put Pittsburgh in, you convince me to do so.

But as big road favorites, man, they're terrible in this spot. It's a huge road favorites. The problem is the Cowboys are freaking awful. So I don't really know what, what, what, if you feel comfortable putting Pittsburgh in here, I mean, they're obviously the play to make,

but I mean, they just came off a very physical game against Baltimore. This is a giant letdown spot for them, but are the Cowboys good enough to really like for Pittsburgh to have that big of a letdown so let me make the case and let's both see if we if we like it because I'm not sure um reminder that Dallas is 0-8 against the spread this year their their last two games they got thumped by washington and the eagles uh 14 points just a reminder that last week the jets with sam darnold went to the chiefs and that was a 19 point line there's not some huge home crowd in dallas we have to worry about and dallas seems to always

blow it at home anyway this is a 14 point-point line with Ben DiNucci against the best defense and the best secondary in the league with Ezekiel Elliott injured. He has a hamstring. We don't know if he's going to play yet. You know, Dallas lost by 14 last week to Philly, and Philly did everything they could to give that one away. Luckily, they got a little frisky on defense at the end. I'm surprised this isn't like 17.

Pittsburgh, you're right that they have let down games. Six and one against the spread this year, though. Pretty reliable. It's a trap. It's one that I would kind of hate to put in, but it feels like a kind of good number. So let's think about this for a second so even if they have a bad game let's say i mean like you look at denver this year right denver came in with a backup quarterback put

up 21 points against them right covered that game man this is like i just the the path for them the cowboys scoring enough points in this game to cover, it's like hard for me to believe, right? Patchwork offensive line against that Steelers' great defensive front. The Steelers, I think, understand this is a letdown spot too, which is important. Like they're playing that type of football this year where they understand it's a letdown spot. Man.

They're undefeated. Like they're not going to lose. They're not going to like. And there's no look ahead. They're playing the Bengals next weekend. That's not a look ahead game. I mean, do they score, let's say, do they score? The Eagles only scored 23 points.

Yeah. The Eagles did everything they could to not score that many points too. I mean, I don't know, man. You want to put Pittsburgh in here for now? I don't think so. I mean mean let's advance them to the maybes because it doesn't seem like we have any solid contenders um okay we'll put them we'll put them in that we'll put them in the in the maybes for now um okay well jeff you you talked earlier about reverse line movement here's a good example of it miami is plus five at Arizona.

I know you had a lot of thoughts about Tua last week. I'm curious where you are on this one. Oh, is the reverse line movement going to the Dolphins? Yes. Yeah, I don't like that play at all. I think that, and I know that this is, like I said, the classic reverse line movement play here. Look, Arizona, I think, is better than we think right now,

just looking at their numbers and looking at the way they played, right? They're now up to 11th in DVOA. Remember, they were the offseason darling, right? The offseason darling. The team that we thought was going to – and they started kind of slow, right? They won their games, but they just kind of meddled along. They were in the 20s in DVOA, and now all of a sudden, boom, they've come alive, right?

They just beat Seattle two weekends ago. Kingsbury is 15-7-1 against the spread as the head coach of this team. So he gets his team to the right number all the time. And I just think Arizona's just a much better team right now. They're good on defense. They're good on offense. The Dolphins, by the way, 32nd against the run. Did not stop the run very well against the Rams.

Cardinals are third as a rushing team. But here's why I think I like this game more than anything else. Vance Joseph, the Cardinals defensive coordinator, is very good, right? We understand that. Very good at scheming up different things. He now has two weeks to prepare for Tua, because he had a bye week. Tua was not good last weekend, right? He had

93 yards passing. He had the worst EPA of any quarterback in National Football League last weekend, okay? He yards passing he had the worst epa of any quarterback in after football league last weekend okay he's not an efficient player i think he threw one pass over 10 yards if if i remind if i recall he threw 10 times 10 boots naked shovel pass rollouts they scored last weekend twice on defense i mean technically once on defense the other one ran to the one yard line and then on special teams. I just think Arizona wins this game like 24-14, 24-10. I don't think it's a high-scoring game.

Dolphins' defense has been fabulous so far. But I get the Cardinals here off a bye. Another rookie quarterback in his first road game off a performance that was just like, the Dolphins are going to try to win that one way, right? Kind of defense protect two, in my i don't know man i i i think a lot of uh oh and there's a lot of money on on miami too right yeah um yeah i i actually went into this thinking we were probably going to take the dolphins but i i kind of think you've talked me into the cardinals the other part of this is i guess both teams starting running backs are out potentially i mean kenny drake actually might play but miles gaskin like out of nowhere had an injury last i think was yeah uh tuesday night yeah he hurt himself he's mcl yeah yeah um

in arizona i mean you talked about tua like i think that what scares me about miami is their defense is just really solid but they had a big blowout win last week uh in arizona coming off of that by i i would take arizona i hate that we're not getting a good number here five is just not a fun one and we're and it's gone the wrong way but i do think you're probably right yeah i mean i just think you know look again we took the rams last weekend for a couple reasons and it just they just jared goff was very bad like there's no other way to say it and yeah i think colin murray is not going to play like that they play time to prepare remember the dolphins pressured golf a lot arizona's offense is more spread out you can see things coming they

should have answers for it a mobile quarterback in kyler murray um i think dolphins are good on defense they're very well coached but their dvoa dropped significantly on offense i mean they just i don't i don't see anything from two of that was like man he's gonna play great this weekend yeah i also think like the dolphins just schemed up for the rams like the the Rams just had no answers for them last week. And it was just one of those games where like one thing led to another. And that was a great coaching staff coming off of a bye.

And this time, like they're coming off of a big win and then flying across the country. This is, I like Arizona. I'm in on this. Okay, let's do it. I love it, man. All right. I like that.

We needed another game. So I'm glad we did that. But that was, I think you're dead on there. Okay, next one. Potentially the game of the week here. New Orleans at Tampa. Tampa four and a half point favorites. I know that you're beating the drum on Tampa.

I'm curious if you like them here. It's one of those games, you mentioned the Colts, Ravens earlier, you just want to watch without money on it. This is one I kind of just want to watch without money on it. I don't feel great about the Saints. They just keep winning, right? But it's kind of ugly, right?

They didn't cover against the Panthers, didn't cover against the Bears. Tampa's on a short week now. Didn't play the crispest of games right on offense as well i i think we just unless you have a strong feel matt i i think tampa wins this game but i i would stay away i don't really feel great about the saints either yeah i think i would lean tampa here um because i think they're just a much better team when michael th Thomas isn't in the equation. The Antonio Brown thing is kind of interesting. You know, Chris Godwin may or may not play.

New Orleans this year, for whatever reason, I think people just really like to bet on them and they trust them. And they've won a lot of games, but they're two and five against the spread, which is just a little bit alarming. won a lot of games but they're two and five against the spread which is just a little bit alarming um i would lean tampa here but i i'm not in a place to make a really good case for it um yeah again like i i would do that but i think you know the short week is is gonna be tough right so um excuse me i would i would i would stay away from this one. Yeah. The only thing to say about that short week, though, is Tampa looked terrible on Monday. On offense, yeah.

And defense. They let Daniel Jones march down the field at the end of the game. So, you know, this could be a little bit of a buy-low spot for Tampa, potentially. These teams obviously already played each other, and Tampa kind of beat them up. So I'm talking myself into Tampa a little bit more. I wouldn't mind it.

I wouldn't mind and wanted to have Tampa here just with kind of a bounce back weekend, right? I mean, we've seen them now have these weekends where they play bad and kind of come back and shellac the team in front of them. So there's a there's a ton of money on new orleans like 54 of bets 79 of money um and there's only 21 of money on tampa and the line's moving in their direction too so maybe maybe this is a a home a home team we got

to take it could be um i'm okay putting it in the maybes also i'll say tom brady 20 and 11 uh on on uh sunday night football uh and that includes like a thanksgiving game or two in there um if you're calling that sunday night football so i think uh yeah i'm in on this we'll put it i'll put it in the maybes for now yeah Yeah, I like it. Okay, the Monday night game is a just straight-up stinker. It is the New England Patriots at the Jets. Pats are laying seven. Yeah, this is a game that I would rather not bet on. What about you?

I agree. If Sam Darnold were to miss this, which it doesn't seem he will, if Sam Darnold were to miss this, which it doesn't seem he will, but if he does, New England against Joe Flacco would be very appetizing. Yeah, I... I can't.

I just... I can't do this. This game. I'm with you. Pass. All right, so we've got a bunch on our list here well i don't uh if you've got it in front of you that's we've got three that i think we're in on right yeah seattle minus three la pick them arizona minus five yeah okay so i feel good about those

the maybe so i i think that we leave the fifth spot for that minnesota game let me put that in there and then if stafford plays we can remove it yep and me put that in there. And then if Stafford plays, we can remove it. Yep. And put another game in there because these lines aren't going to change or the super contest lines. So we just need one more,

in my opinion. Do you agree with that strategy? Yeah, I agree. And let's, let's give out an alt where we're leaning as our alternate for the time being. Yeah.

So we need, we need one more here. Chicago plus five and a half. Tampa minus four and a half. Pittsburgh minus 14. And what about, do we want to put Washington in the mix at two and a half? I'm not, no, not with those other teams.

Okay. Okay. So, man. Well, you like Chicago. How do you feel about them now that we're seeing them in this context because that's the one i kind of feel the least like i mean stand alone i just think that that that match up with the defensive line is just a big thing and and the tennessee titans the reason why they're not covering is their defense is atrocious on third down.

Now the Bears offense though is a problem. So that's the problem with this game. The other issues with the other games, by the way, you know, Tampa, so I can bet on the better quarterback and the better team in Tampa playing the Saints and Drew Brees. Or I can bet on Nick F Or how about a Nick Foles?

Right. Nick Foles on the road. Let's look at the Saints schedule. Do they have anything interesting coming up? They have 49ers next week, so they're not looking ahead. I think we put Tampa in there

and then we save the bears to put in for Minnesota. If Detroit plays, if Stafford plays, I mean, yeah. I mean, the only other one would be if we want to,

if we want to take the flyer on Pittsburgh against Danucci, I just, you know, I think that they will cover that game, but like, I don't really like, are we assholes? If we take, if we don't take ben denucci and tony

no ben denucci's not playing it's gonna be like cooper rush or something so if are we assholes if we don't take that with the with the best team in the league uh laying only 14 like i think this is priced in for the top let down a little it's very possible but like dallas's defense is so terrible that i are we are we are we overthinking this that's what i'm asking like dallas is terrible and pittsburgh could just hand the ball off 50 times and just and win 20 to nothing it's possible um but i i mean i do like the tampa play um i do like that if if we're sure michael thomas isn't playing i um oh man drew breeze limited in practice today god i mean are we overthinking the steelers thing cooper rush is gonna play like Their offense still kind of worries me, but Dallas has lost a ton of points.

Do you feel more comfortable with Pittsburgh or Tampa? Well, I'm seeing that Michael Thomas came back to practice today, Wednesday, when we're taping this. That worries me a bit. Are we taking too many liberties to just put to be this this is this is like either tampa or pittsburgh here depending on michael thomas and then the other game is minnesota or someone else if if i mean i feel like this is part of this is the issue we have doing this podcast sometimes on wednesday after wednesday night i mean i think that's true

but for the people who are going to make this, who are going to put their bet in, do you want to just say that we're in on Tampa for right now? Yeah, I'm okay with being in with Tampa, and then we can obviously go to my Twitter, at Jeff Schwartz. We've done this before. We've posted the final picks,

which we have a nice graphic for. We've changed a pick or two, just depending on injuries, because I feel like, like I said, most people aren't doing this show Wednesday night. They wait until later in the week to give you their thoughts on, and especially injury.

If Michael Thomas plays, this game is obviously different, right? If Stafford plays, that game is obviously different. So I'm going with Seattle, L.A., Chargers, Cardinals, Tampa Bay, and the Minnesota Vikings at the moment. And, of course, like I said, this is one of those weeks where the injuries start to pile up, man. We might have to do things a little bit differently. So we're making some changes.

We're moving and grooving. But I like where we're at. 20-18-1. We're staying afloat, Matt. We're staying afloat, buddy. Let's do it, man. We got this. It's going to be a good week.

I think it's going to be a good week as well. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the games. Enjoy an entire week of football. Packed to a football back, by the games. Enjoy entire week of football. Pac-12 football back, by the way. Cal minus one, Arizona State plus 10.5 if you're so inclined to bet on the Pac-12 conference.

It's my conference that I love, I grew up in. So there you go. A couple Pac-12 plays as well. Have a great weekend. Talk to you guys on Tuesday.