Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 Consensus NFL Week 4 Bets

Episode Date: October 1, 2020

We're three weeks into the NFL season and we have our first COVID-19 breakout in the league. Geoff breaks down how the NFL is handling this & jumps into Week 4 SuperContest lines with Matt Ford. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, October 1st, and welcome to October. We've made it to week four of the NFL season. We finally had a COVID outbreak. We'll talk about that. And then we'll get you set for the week ahead of gambling on the NFL. We might even have a game on Tuesday this week. We'll get to all of that in just a second. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford.

This is Jeff Schwartz. This is Maru. First off, thank you very much for listening, for subscribing, for commenting on social media. We've had an uptick. I really appreciate you guys following along this ride this season. And Matt, week four, it's already happening, buddy. Like we're almost at a quarter way of the season. This is insane.

When you said the date of this show, I was like, what happens? Like I still feel like, I mean, we're so used to the preseason and getting our sea legs for a while. But it's like it's almost playoff picture time. This is getting ridiculous. I know. And we're eight and seven through the first three weeks of the year. But before we get to that, we had our first COVID outbreak in the NFL on a single team. Tennessee Titans, four players end up testing positive. Plus, I believe up to six staff members some asymptomatic some have symptoms as well uh this was after their game against the vikings on sunday they went into contact tracing they have shut down the facility until saturday at least that's the word right now and they move their game against the steelers which i really like pittsburgh by the way which we we may or may not i don't think we actually include them in this because they won't play

till monday or tuesday i mean we still count we actually include them in this because they won't play till Monday or Tuesday. I mean, we still count in the super contest. I guess that they put a lineup at some point, but maybe we could discuss our options there. But nonetheless, Tennessee has 10 guys. And this is the thing,

Matt, is there was a freak out, of course, but that's because for two months now, the start of training camp until now, the NFL has been great, right? Nothing's been happening. College football has had like 37 games canceled.

We're like, oh, whatevs. But one freak out in the NFL and everyone lost their mind. What was your take on it? I thought like, hey, this is expected. They'll do the contact tracing. They have the technology in place to make this work and they'll continue to play.

Yeah, I have a buddy who's probably listening to this who texted me right away and was like, uh-oh, the season's canceled. And I was like, no, it's not. Just because we haven't thought about this doesn't mean that they haven't thought about this. The NFL, to their credit, for all their warts, they have nailed this so far. And it's critical that they do this right because if they don't do it in time and then it spreads to a third team or a fourth team or something like that, we haven't really heard what's going to happen with Minnesota yet. I don't know if – I mean it doesn't seem like there have been any positives on that team yet.

Let's hope it stays that way. But it's amazing crisis management so far. So knock on wood that nothing really bad happens beyond this. so far so knock on wood that yeah nothing really bad happens beyond this and you know the we had time the nfl says we but the nfl had time to get the protocols in place and learn from baseball by the way who did not handle this right with the marlins and they put the money into contact tracing everyone's wearing sensors right so they can track if you've been in a room with someone more than 15 minutes within six feet of each other mostly in the meeting rooms but you know the meetings are set up to not be that way right um and the positive of this and and there are some is that none of the vikings players

attest to positive there was a fear that you would pass covid right during a game which which look doing the research on that seemed very unlikely to happen even though there's only three players in the nfl wearing those face shields one of of them is Mitchell Schwartz, my brother. He's wearing the face thing. But, you know, there was really no threat, in my opinion, of that happening on the football field. So good to see the Vikings are good to go, it appears, and they'll play their game this weekend.

Maybe they'll move that one to Monday because they can't get in the facility. You know, it's a problem if you can't get in the facility to practice. And that's why the Titans game officially will not be played Sunday. It will be played Monday or Tuesday. Sucks for the Steelers, because they have a short week the following week that they didn't really sign up for. They didn't do anything. So with that, man, let's get into the games.

Like I said, 8-7 right now. We learned a lesson last week. Never bet on the Giants. That's out um this is a interesting week man because there is um there's a lot to to ponder but not probably not the not the best card there ever was so with with uh without further ado matt let's uh let's go yeah it reminds me of when they were doing the schedule and they were like there are those those four weeks where in case we have to collapse the schedule, like we could just toss one of those. Could we just toss this week? Like, what are these games? I don't really know what

this card even is, but let's start with the Thursday game. It's the Broncos and Billy Rippon, nephew of Mark, at the New York Jets. It's a pick them because they figure they're going to get no action on this game at all. Are we going to discuss this? I'd rather not. Even though there is reverse line movement to the Jets, which, which we love 40% of bets on the Jets,

91% of money. And there's, there's movement there. I'm, I'm not touching this game. You're welcome to bet on your own folks, but I would just, I I'd touching this game. You're welcome to bet it on your own folks. But I would just, I'd watch this game. And look, by the way, no single person is allowed to complain about watching Thursday Night Football after what we saw Tuesday night between 9 p.m. Eastern and 10.30 p.m. Eastern.

Okay? No one's allowed to complain ever again. That's not true. That's not true. That's not true. That's not true. That's not true. That's not true. Watching football, crappy Thursday night games. We love it. We should appreciate it and cherish it. But are you on this game? No. What scares me is I feel like you could talk me into the Jets really easily, but I knew that you wouldn't. So let's just mercifully pass on this. Move along. And move on in our lives.

Okay, next game. This one is interesting. I'm curious if either of us have a lean year. So this is Cleveland. Four and a half is where this number landed. They're plus four and a half at Dallas. Thoughts? I think the play is the Cleveland Browns.

Look, they might be, and this is weird to say because they're the Browns and they had a poor game in week one, but they might be the better team right now than the Dallas Cowboys. I love it. The thing with the Cowboys, look, the Cowboys now are 1-2, obviously, right?

They've allowed a zillion points. And the one game they won, they should have lost. Let's be honest, okay? Yep. They played okay against the Rams week one, did not convert their opportunities. The Falcons should have won that game week two. And last weekend, the game wasn't,

it was closer sometimes. But, like, in the end, they make too many mistakes. They make too many mistakes. And I just maybe think the Browns are just kind of slowly going along, doing their thing. And I, and of course the public's all over Dallas because why wouldn't they be?

But, you know, just, you know, efficiency wise, both teams are just like kind of around the same number, but the Browns are just much better on defense. Yeah. Yeah.

I mean, it feels like, you know, Cleveland got over this hump this week. If they finally got over 500 for the first time since, I don't know, Dwight Eisenhower was in six, six, six years, by the way, it's been a long time. Uh, and Dallas, meanwhile, you said it, they should be 0-3. They've yet to cover a game this year. And Cleveland's defense is probably going to end up being the best one that Dallas has faced so far. Yeah. Cleveland's, you know, what are we assuming here?

We're assuming that Dallas is the team we all love coming into the season, which is a little bit dangerous. is the team we all love coming into the season, which is a little bit dangerous. And we're assuming that Cleveland is that crappy team that got beat pretty bad in week one by a very good team. I think that Cleveland's rushing offense is probably the best in the entire league, but maybe behind Baltimore. I think they could dominate this game.

I love the four and a half I'm in yeah I think I I think um I kind of think I'm in too like I think that four and a half is is just a good number I know it's a Vegas zone um but it it is there a Vegas zone this year too like I just don't I don't this year is such a weird year especially with all the with all the um uh the scoring that's happening right now, right? That the official is not calling penalties anymore. I'm,

I'm good with putting this in here for now. I think this is a, a good place to be. Yeah, I do too. Let's, let's put it on our first pass. Next game is another talk about the Vegas zone.

It's Saints laying four points at Detroit. What do you think? Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool. But with my wireless, I get unlimited for just 30 bucks. Impressive.

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reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line, most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report, results vary, non-endorsement. I don't want any part of this game. The Saints just don't look right, in my opinion, and the idea of just like, okay, they're going to look right this week. I don't, I don't believe in that. Plus, I just don't believe that the Lions, like, I don't know what to believe in the

Lions either. Like, I don't, I don't, I just don't have a great feel for this game at all. And those games I would stay away from. I feel the same way, weirdly. I mean, the, the only thing that could potentially sway me here is if Michael Thomas came back and Okuda and Trufant are both banged up for Detroit, that could be the Drew Brees gets right game. But other than that, I don't trust either of these teams. I think this is a little bit respectful of Detroit, but I don't trust New Orleans at this stage, which is crazy to say. Yeah, so I think we stay away from it. Yep. That's a pass. Okay. So this game we assume is going to happen. This is Minnesota plus four and a half at Houston opened at three and a half. Do you like the four and a half? It's a tough one, man. I, The Vikings, we bet on them.

We felt really good. That was maybe our favorite play last week. We felt really good about the Vikings. Yeah. And they covered in the end. We were texting back and forth like, come on, Vikings, finish this out. The Texans are 0-3 too. Both of them.

I know. I just don't like this number. Yeah. I don't either. I'll say a like this number. Yeah. I don't either. I'll say a few things here. First of all, Minnesota, this is a very rare losing streak for them. First, since 2018, this is just against the spread. They're 12-2 against the spread after a loss.

Obviously, they've already had three this year. Houston, 5-7 seven and one which is a pretty interesting trend um look minnesota i think could have potentially unlocked something by getting justin jefferson going feeling's great good but when you're able to key in on that guy so much uh it you know that takes away what kirk can do. He's as good as what's around him. Minnesota also, I think they just have the more complete team top to bottom and they just haven't put it together yet. You think that a Mike Zimmer defense is going to stay at 19th and DVOA? It's going to get better at some point. They're just, they're young at, you know, they're young on the edges, the defensive secondary,

and their pass rush has not been that good this year. I don't know. I don't think it's a scheme issue. I think it's just a personnel issue. I think it's a bit of a luck issue too because they've turned it over seven times. Only Philly has more. They've only taken it away twice.

Usually they're one of those teams that you look up and they're returning something for a touchdown. They haven't done that yet. So I don't't trust them but if i had to pick this one i'd pick minnesota but i you know well i think we can probably find four better ones i think we can too and the next game i think we might disagree on but i might let you win this one we'll see it's my favorite pick of the week jeff it's uh the game is the Colts two and a half point road favorites at Chicago to undefeat or no sorry one undefeated team and a Phillip Rivers quarterback's team as a road favorite which might uh sort of tip my hand a little bit you let's hear your your your Phillip Rivers rant go ahead I mean it's not necessarily a Phillip Rivers rant as much as it is a why is everyone all over Indy all of a sudden?

Like Indy has played the following. They have the number one defense in DVOA. I get it. But here's who they've played. Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold. And they lost to Gardner Minshew. And meanwhile, the Bears defense, they're sixth in DVOA and they've played Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan and Danny Dimesives who we've learned the hard way shouldn't rely on at all um they when they replaced travisky with foals like they were all they were doing fine but then foals comes in and completely turns this offense around they had

almost as many passing yards last week as they did in the first two home games combined in this game i think chicago has the better quarterback the better receivers the better defense and they're at home and they're getting points what's the argument just remember too last weekend you know that score was inflated against jets because the colts defense scored a bunch of times which is what nick foals is not gonna nick foals is not gonna allow that to happen right and so here's the thing about nick fooles is do I think he's going to miraculously make the Bears some hellacious playoff team? No. What he's going to do and what he did in Philly and what he's done everywhere else, he takes what the defense gives him.

So if the route concept calls for a four-yard pass and the defense gives him a four-yard pass look, he throws the four-yard pass. I mean, even on Sunday, he had a great throw to win the game. He was okay in the fourth quarter. He wasn't great. He wasn't great. He was okay. And I think, to your point, okay might be good enough in this game because the Colts, again, we've kind of been off of them.

And I wasn't as high on them this year as other people were. And, you know, I'm willing to ride with the Bears. I trust your instincts on this one. This is a game that I really didn't have a great feel for, but if you love it this much, I'm all good putting this in. And you know I love a home dog. So especially a 3-0 home dog.

Yeah, what? I just don't get the respect for the Colts. Two weeks ago, they got blown out by the Jaguars and they beat the Jets. Who cares? The Clemson could beat the Jets. Jaguars, and they beat the Jets. Who cares?

The Clemson could beat the Jets. So we have Chicago Bears plus two and a half as a potential in the super contest. Sounds good to me. I love it. Well, this one I know is one that you're fond of. I'm not sure what side yet, but this is the Chargers plus seven and your boy, Justin Herber plus seven at the tampa bay buccaneers i absolutely love tampa minus seven here thankfully they gave a seven not seven and a half so there's many reasons it's so square but look tampa's bay is playing much better now right they've covered the last

two games even though two weeks ago it was a late touchdown run to cover that game went to denver last weekend kicked the shit out of the broncos um who aren't very good obviously but here's here i'll give you the reasons why um i like this i like this pick so first of all it's justin herbert's first road game right in the nfl against the best defense he's gonna face tampa was great last year in defense now they're second in dvoa and they're balanced right they're third on i believe in pass and fifth against the runner or vice versa um but here's why I like this matchup. The Chargers are banked up on the offensive line, and when they're healthy, they haven't been terribly good so far this year. PFF has them ranked 28th overall in pass protection. Tampa Bay has a fourth best

win rate for their just pass rush, for their pass rush. They will get home with Justin Herbert and make his life a living hell. I don't think the Chargers score more than 14 to 16 to 17 points, even if they get that high. And Tampa Bay's going to score points. The Chargers defense is beat up. They're injured. Look at their injury report. It's a disaster.

Now, Bosa's going to play. You know he's limited. But I just think that you're looking at like a 28-14 game. I don't. As Tampa continues to improve offensively each and every week, Tom Brady last week, 295 yards or 275, three touchdowns. He to improve offensively each and every week tom brady last week 295 yards or 275 three touchdowns he's just looking better each and every week i just this is more of an anti-chargers bet than it is more of like i feel tampa basically went 45 to 17 it's more just like i'm in charge of scoring enough points to cover seven well we're also getting

kind of an interesting number here because this this is bounced around it opened at four and a half everyone hammered it it got up to i think seven and a half some places and it came back down to seven so we're kind of doing okay there but you know this it's made me a little bit nervous to take a big favorite um but you made some good points there the thing that worried me was chris godwin going out again it feels like this offense is never going to get their chance to just like gel together uh but Tampa's defense has always been underrated I was beating that drum last year a lot they were really good like think about this the so far Herbert came in against the Chiefs right he played okay then he played the Panthers defense the Panthers defense

is terrible they couldn't move the ball they fumbled the ball a bunch they just looked very bad um and you know their chance to win at the end on the hook and ladder, but I just don't believe he's going to go on his first road game and play well against one of the better defenses in the NFL. All right. I'm in. Let's put it on our list. I feel like for such a bad card this week, we actually have some we like. Yeah, but I'm running out of ones I like.

Yeah, me too. We'll see how much steam we have left. Well, let's try this one. This is Baltimore, 13-point road favorites at the Washington football team. I have a feeling I know where you're going to go here, and I'm a little bit scared. I'm going to be – we should have a nickname for when Jeff Schwartz is square, which should be like –

Jeff Schwartz is squarer than you? Jeff Schwartz is squarer than you. Jeff Schwartz is squarer than you. You're wearing your Washington football team t-shirt. That's right. Look, the play here is definitely Baltimore, right? I mean, for many reasons. One is that they got embarrassed. And I think there is value in taking teams

that got embarrassed the week before, especially veteran teams like Baltimore. They also just cover all their games, right? The last 13 regular season games are 11-2 covering. They cover a ton of their games, and they beat the shit out of bad teams. And guess what? Your Washington football team has a quarterback controversy.

Chase Young might be out this game. They're not a good football team. And so I just think I'm taking an angry Baltimore team who is going to try to prove that they're, and I don't think they'll have a hangover. Maybe they will. Against a Washington – Washington's not very good. He wants to bench Dwayne Haskins for Case Keenum or Kyle Allen.

Whoever their backup quarterback is. Who cares? I think that Washington – I don't think the backup would be Kyle Allen. The backup is going to be Alex Smith. And we're going to see Alex Smith in the next couple weeks. I'm telling you. No, we're not seeing Alex Smith. He hasn't taken – he didn't take no reps in practice. He's not to be Alex Smith. And we're going to see Alex Smith in the next couple weeks. I'm telling you. No, we're not seeing Alex Smith.

He didn't take no reps in practice. He's not coming in the game. People are tired of hearing us talk about Alex Smith. I'm going to tell you a few things that worry me about this. First of all, I'm taking Baltimore and Survivor this week. They're going to win this game. Chase Young being out is huge. Ryan Kerrigan's offsides last week blew the game for Washington,

which is a sentence I've never said that guy's been playing since 2005. I'm a little wary of this number. Favorites have been covering all the time this season, so this seems to be the week where they're jacking it up and they're seeing how much people like you are going to lay on a big favorite in an obvious spot. are going to lay on a big favorite in an obvious spot. Baltimore, this blew me away. After an against the spread loss, they're two and six against the spread the following weeks in the Lamar Jackson era. That's the worst percentage in the NFL. Washington, by the way, second worst, six and 15. What also kind of worries me, whatever this blueprint is to solve baltimore's offense it seems like some some people are starting to figure it out right kansas city did it last week tennessee did it in last year's playoffs

i feel like del rio and rivera are capable of slowing them down yeah right so the blueprint's been laid but i'll counter that a little bit here. I don't think it's so much as like, here's what we do on defense. It's more that the offense for the opposing team scores early in the games and makes Baltimore play from behind. And Baltimore loses their shit when they play from behind, which I talked about on the podcast on Tuesday. So there is a method. I mean, Tennessee did it.

I don't see, you know, Lamar said like Kansas City came out and did what the Titans did. I did not think so, by the way. I think they just played their defense. But there is a thing to say, look, okay, let's like let Lamar run to the sidelines, which is what Tennessee did and keep everything in front of us. But I don't think the Washington's offense will score enough points to put pressure on Baltimore's defense. I think I do.

I see like a pick six coming this week, just with Dwayne Haskins getting baited and throwing a touchdown to Marcus Peters back the other way. You know, this just screams what, like, I mean, something like I think it's like twenty eight seven. Right. I mean, it just feels like maybe a lower scoring game, but that Washington doesn't score. I'm OK with putting this in a maybe category because this is a bold square pick. But I think it is, look at the rest of the games, could be a way to go.

But we'll, I don't know. Let's put it on the list because I agree. I think you could probably talk me into it, but I'm just a little bit worried after last week and that crazy thing about uh the ravens after i think it's spread loss that's wild yeah um all right our next game

is man this is an interesting one so arizona three and a half point road favorites at carolina two teams that have been very good to betters this this year so far uh what do you got here um so i like arizona here this is one of my one of my games that i didn't really think that i would um like this game um but there's a lot of things about arizona that i think um are good first of all they're great at covering on the road right we talked about that a couple weeks ago but you know just to reiterate kings Kingsbury is 12-6-1 against the spread. So taking over as the Cardinals head coach. And the Panthers are 2-8-1 their last 11 games against the spread.

The Panthers haven't been a good football team. The Panthers won last week, right? They beat the Chargers in an ugly game. They need a lot of help from the Chargers fumbling the football, right? To be in that game. Turnovers fumbling the football. Yeah. And it just wasn't a good win for them. You know, their 31st ranked defense,

their 31st on third down. They had 100 less yards. It's just one game without Christian McCaffrey, but they do nothing well. What do they do well? They complete short passes, I guess. Arizona's defense, 7th in DVOA. Their offense is falling a little bit behind.

I just think that Arizona's a much better football team and they're going to have 5,000 fans in the game. So home field advantage is not really important here. I don't like the three and a half, but I don't know, Matt. I just, I think Arizona is just a much better football team coming off a loss when, you know, they kind of have to keep pace. Yeah. It's funny. funny i i was leaning towards this and then i took a long look and when i last thought about it i was on the side of carolina um there's first of all the the pros agree with carolina they do yes the huge discrepancy here 71 of the bets are on arizona but only 27 of the money uh it's one of those west to east games which kingsbury has been good at the cardinals have traditionally been pretty good at avoiding any of those traps but worth mentioning anyway um what carolina does well is i mean they've thrown

the ball pretty well like bridgewater is now i think seventh uh in the nfl in passing yards robbie anderson's been great for them uh is that because they're is that because they're behind in games or because he is like i mean that's my thing right when you're behind in games i don't know how much we can count you know just like pure pure passing yards look at their their pass offense on dvoa is 18th right now. So I don't know if we – I don't know. I don't know how important that is. Yeah, fair enough. And they have been behind.

But they also – if you remember that stupid Vegas game in week one where they had like the youngest defense probably ever assembled. Oh, yeah. They hung in there. And they called a weird play on fourth and one where if they had converted and just given it to McCcafree probably they they might be two and one um it's just a weird situation three and a half points on the road for arizona i think they're the better team and maybe i'm just overthinking this maybe arizona just is the play i'm looking at um some advanced stats on uh quarterbacks i

want to see where teddy bridgewater teddy bridgewater is 20th as far as advanced. That's color. Murray's 21st. Their offense hasn't been terribly good. Yeah. The defense has been really good. And without Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers offense,

like I said, I mean, it takes a huge dynamic out of, out of their game. I'm going to put this in the, in the maybe pile. I just, I know it's like,

again, it's square, but like, I just don't, I just think Arizona is a better football team, but we'll put in the maybe category. Yeah. They, Arizona weirdly has, has their, their higher ranked unit in DVOA is their defense, which is pretty surprising. Yeah, it is. So it's, it's an interesting one.

It's possible. Arizona is, is better than we think. And Detroit's better than we think too. So we'll come back to that one. Here's a strange one. Jacksonville plus three at Joe Burrow's Bengals. Jacksonville's getting three points? Yeah, at Cincy.

Wait, they think Cincinnati's much better than them? Yeah, I think they do. Or I guess even, they think they're even? I don't want to touch this game. Can I make the argument for the Bengals? Go ahead. So look, since he's beat up, which is a bit of an issue, but their strength of their team up as beyond Burrow, their defense has actually been pretty good. And they've played some real teams.

They're top 10 in dvoa on defense and jacksonville's success on offense has honestly been by this james robinson guy this undrafted rookie running back who's been really good um but since he's played some good run offenses already they played miles sanders they played the browns who are amazing and they've played the jargers with eckler and ke. They're still in the top 10 in defense. So the problem with Jacksonville is their offense has been falling apart because their offensive line, their pass protection is terrible. Cincy had three sacks last week against Carson Wentz. And Minshew has been sacked four times in the last two games.

So they could probably get after him a little bit. And meanwhile, Joe Burrow his he's been getting killed back there it's been tough to watch right yeah but jacksonville only has three sacks so far this whole season they have a terrible pass defense they're giving up eight and a half yards of pass this kind of feels like the game burrows at home like this is a bad team they're playing against they're he's gonna get a statement win, and it's not going to be that much longer. I think Jacksonville, I mean, four weeks ago, we're talking about them as the worst team in the league. I think that this could be a good spot to take the Bengals.

There's a ton, a ton, a ton, a ton of money in Jacksonville. It's early. No one's betting this game. No one has been this game. Only has, yeah. It's not a bad pick. I feel better about this than i do like arizona probably me too it's burrow i mean like clearly the better team here i mean jacksonville had that aberration in week one and they're they're fun they're competitive i wouldn't mind having to watch this game to be totally honest like you know the two fun

quarterbacks yeah i mean a couple of things that worry me cincinnati's bangles pass rush is really bad and if you give minchu time he tends to make a little bit of magic happen but that's the problem their offensive line stinks i mean they've given up tons of sacks the last few weeks yeah let's put it let me put this in the the maybe pile i don't i just i think that the cincinnati offensive line scares me but yeah let's put them let's put the maybe pile yeah i mean it's more of a fading of jacksonville and just trusting burrow i understand so yeah i'm i'm glad i was able to to at least get you to listen um i wonder what's i think we were probably on the same side here. So this is Seattle minus six and a half at Miami.

I just let yourself say it. Just say it is Miami. Let's go. But this is so gross again. It has to Miami, right? Like this, this, we have to play this this week. I'm like, like this is like, this, we have to play this this week. I'm. Like, like this is like, this is a classic game. Like the Vikings last weekend.

Like you just have to play it. Right. You just have to do it. Right. I think so. I mean, Seattle's going to score. The question becomes is that does Seattle play a little bit worse on offense? Just a little bit worse on offense to where they're not going to score 45 points.

Because the Dolphins defense is bad yeah well here a few things first of all Byron Jones probably not gonna play in this game they already have the the Dolphins already have the 32nd ranked defense and DVOA going against Russell Wilson. Concerning, to say the least. But I think the Chris Carson absence, which we don't know if he's going to be out yet, but it's looking like he's going to miss this. Old Jamal Adams. Seattle's defense is a liability.

It's not good. And look, Seattle's not going to go 16-0. And Seattle is not going to go 16-0 against the spread. That just doesn't happen. They're going to even out. They're going to go 9-7 against the spread, even if they do go 15-1. They can have an amazing season.

That's just not how this works. This is one of those games that I just feel like Seattle's going to try to survive. They're down some people. They're just going to sort of ask Russ to get a W. It's September. There's always a fluky Seattle game in September. They're just going to sort of ask Russ to get a W. It's September. There's always a fluky Seattle game in September. They're going west to east. It's Fitz magic.

It's not one I'd be happy about, but I feel like we might have to. I looked at this this week and I thought to myself, you know what? I'm not going to let Mance convince me into making this bet. But when I saw this game i was like this is the game man like this is this is the classic like i mean dolphins 11 to 4 now last 15 as a dog i mean that's just a rust that's just a ryan tannehill stat right basically right um yeah all right i i think this is like i i i feel more comfortable about this than i do like baltimore minus 13 which is crazy.

100%. Because this is actually what smart betting is. You take a home underdog with a team going West to East. It's not great. But I think we could look at ourselves in the mirror if we lose it. Yeah. Even though Baltimore is going to kick the shit out of Washington. Yeah, it seems likely. All right. Let's continue on.

All right, we're moving on to, speaking of huge lines, the Giants are plus 12.5 at the Rams. Yeah, just straight pass on this game. Straight pass, yeah. I got nothing. I mean, do we love the Rams that much? Geez. Well, the Giants' rush defense, I looked this up, by the way,

fourth according to Pro Football Focus. I just think the Rams are going to win this game. Look, the Ravens and Rams are going to win their games probably by 21 points. I just don't know if we should bet those games. Right, and one of them's not. One of them's going to have a nail-biter for reasons that we could never foresee. Like the Chiefs at the Chargers two weeks ago. Yep.

It just happens. If this was that easy, everybody would make money. Yeah. But yeah, this is a pass for sure. Next one. Great game. Buffalo three-point road favorites at the Las Vegas Raiders. I mean, the play is the over in this game.

Yes. Which I would almost never tell you to bet, but the answer is definitely over. And I really think it's Buffalo too. They're playing good football and there's no way around it. And the Raiders, you know, last weekend was interesting because they played decently well in offense, but Carr just, something about Carr where he just can't,

he can't finish these games games sometimes he just can't do it and um I really don't believe in in Carr very well and so I I don't like taking a short road favorite but Buffalo would be my play yeah I went back and forth here because I think Buffalo's I mean they obviously have gotten a bit lucky um lucky. They're getting killed in the run on defense. The Raiders can run the ball. Josh Jacobs can run. But Vegas' defense is ranked 31st in the DVOA. And all of the credit for the reason this is not a higher line for Buffalo

is because the Raiders beat New Orleans. And frankly, we're not sure how good New Orleans is. the Raiders beat New Orleans. And frankly, we're not sure how good New Orleans is. The Bills, 9-3-2 with Josh Allen against the spread on the road. McDermott has won 61% of his road games. Neutral field game, essentially, with no crowd. I think Buffalo is significantly better.

Yeah, but this just... Like, the way i worry with a bad defense like buffalo if you know as a trend what i'm doing a lot of these picks i'm taking great defenses right because it's a bad year for for defense like i just feel if the raiders are down 10 with a minute left they're gonna just go down score i guess i mean i i don't do you is buffalo do you like buffalo that much no i don't i'm i guess i just think that some of these bat these like struggling defenses with pedigree are gonna are gonna turn it around like obviously star latula lay opting out was big but is it but is it this week they do it though against a good offense the raiders offense is not bad well maybe because waller's potentially hurt or limited uh henry ruggs probably isn't going to play maybe i mean the raiders offense is ninth right now in dvoa yeah i don't know i i just don't i think we have to go back and forth this much it's not a it's a pass i agree yeah um okay let's move

on to the next one your kansas city chiefs hosting the patriots seven point home favorites very respectful to the super bowl champion chiefs yeah um i uh i mean the plays new england here but i just i don't want to touch this game yeah um you know pat mahomes since he came back last season against the Titans, they lost that game. Ever since then, they've won by double digits. I think every game but the Chargers game two weeks ago. I just, I don't want to do this game. What if I gave you the avenue to take the Chiefs?

Because New England, bottom six in yards per play through the air this year i know 25th and dvoa on defense we keep assuming we talk about these defenses that should be good all of the guys in new england opted out and it shows and they're 25th and dvoa and they played derrick carr and ryan fitzpatrick and they played Russell Wilson too like I this could like Kansas City what we what they did last week was unreal and if that team shows up again they're winning by more than seven but yeah I could see a situation where New England just bleeds the clock against Kansas City like that's what I worry about. Yeah, Belichick owns Reed. I think that the issue with

the tough part about gambling is that the most common things you would think would happen. Kansas City wins by big, Baltimore wins big, the Rams win big. It does happen, but not as much as you think and it doesn't make you feel comfortable betting them.

That's the hard part about this whole thing. Like, yeah, I think Kansas city is going to win. I think they're most likely to win by 10 to 14 points, maybe 17 points, but I don't know if I feel great taking them. Yeah.

I'm fine. I'm fine passing it, but I wanted to see if I could talk you into it. That was, I just, I felt like I could. I feel like I came up a little short. I, I, do you love it uh that was i just i felt like i could yeah i'm a little short i i do you love it no i just figured i could bait you into taking oh no no i'm out on this game no all right uh i bet

you're out on this one too philadelphia plus seven at the 49ers unclear who's playing in this game for the 49ers but philly's playing for their lives what do you think no no nothing nothing i don't know you don't trust the eagles here i want to talk about it because this is an interesting game uh road dogs cover 75 of the time at san francisco under kyle shanahan crazy 49ers have rolled both the new york teams but in both of those games last week the week, the Giants had zero rushing attack. They had no identity on offense. That was up to Danny Dimes. I kind of feel like we should have seen that coming.

You know, if the Eagles have a decent offense here, they're going to turn around eventually. You know, who do the 49ers have this week? If they don't have Mostert, Kittle, McKinnon, maybe. Maybe this is the spot for Philly. I mean, the Niners are still third in DVOA this year. Yeah, look who they played. But DVOA is weighted for strength of schedule. Sure.

How do you rate the Jets? How do you accommodate for them? They're fucking terrible. The only 31st in DVO, Denver's last, um, should be a great Thursday night game. Do you want to,

do you want to, do you want to give your stat that you were going to, that you were going to, uh, save for the show? Yeah. Well, I was going to surprise you and then Gabe ruined it.

Uh, in the first nine starts, Nick Mullins is third all time in passing yards. Uh, in the first nine starts, Nick Mullins is third all time in passing yards. Uh, the top two were Andrew Luck and Patrick Mahomes. Number three, Nick Mullins. Kind of weird. Yeah. I, I don't have a great feel for this game.

Yeah, we can pass it. Um, all right. Last game is the Monday night game, the Dan Quinn Memorial game, potentially. Falcons plus seven at Green Bay. Yeah, I just want zero part of this game. I mean, maybe take the Green Bay over, like just in general, the team total over.

But this just screams like Falcons win this game. Like this is like, this just just it just doesn't just it it it reeks of like the falcons put it all together this week and win i don't dude i don't think so i think aaron rogers might hang 60 on these dudes honestly that's why i think that the packers team total over it's probably a good play but i just i oh geez i was i looked this up last year it was week five this happened atlanta was one and three they were kind of in the middle they everybody didn't really know what they were then they went to houston who at the time was very good and houston hung 53 on him and everyone that following week was like they've got to fire quinn and of course they did it and

then they went on a little run. This could be that. So here's the question though, is if you look at, look at the games we've chosen. So like we chose a couple, let's just, we put on our list three, like, well, really two maybes, right? Green Bay minus seven and Tampa minus seven, right? For the two like big home favorites that we like.

We can throw Kansas City in there as well. The Chargers are not going to score points. Like I feel really good about Tampa covering that game. The Falcons can score points. The Falcons will score points in this game, I should say. And like, I just, with a big number like that, I worry about a team that can score points. I mean, the Packers have got to win this game to limit what, Green Falcons to 21 points, I think. I mean, they haven the Packers have got to win this game to limit what green Falcons

to 21 points. I think, I mean, they, they haven't done, no one's done that all season. Yeah. That's what I worry about.

Like, that's why I feel great about the chargers game because I just don't know they're going to score points. And that's why I like Tampa minus seven. You know, the, the, the thing with Kansas city Patriots,

I just, the Patriots can be good. I think on offense this week. I, I, I, I just, I don't can be good, I think, on offense this week. I just, I don't know, man. I would, I like other games better. I'm with you. Let's take a step back and look at our board here. So we've got three, let's put the Bucs in.

They're your favorite. I love the Bucs. So you got to listen to your boy when he's got the feel. So Tampa minus seven and Chicago plus two and a half are are in i really like miami minus six i mean plus six six and a half right no we get six and a half i'm sorry do we get six and a half yeah i'm pretty sure let me just quickly double check that yes plus six and a half right that has to be in right yeah so then we have the other choices we that i wrote down and we have arizona minus three and a half bangles minus three oh i like browns plus four

and a half yep i like that so that's four now um and we so the other the other four we have basically in that we talked about arizona minus and a half, Bengals minus three, Baltimore minus 13, and Green Bay minus seven. You know what? Your Bengals pick might be the one. I know. Something about it feels kind of unthreatening, doesn't it?

Oh, geez. We're going to watch games this weekend and be like, Baltimore's up 45-7. Why did we not pick Baltimore? I know it's going to happen. I mean, should we just throw out our like, let's be smart and disciplined and just do that?

Because with Chase Young out, it could turn into a melee. It really could. Like what is the scenario to where Washington keeps his game within two touchdowns? I don't know. I mean, I will say Haskins has looked good in every second half except for the last drive of last week. But maybe there's some backdoor potential

if the Ravens take their foot off the gas. 13, though. Let me look up one thing real quick about Haskins. I wonder if they have the stat that I can see real quick. He's not good. I'm curious, actually, while you're looking this up I haven't seen one moment from him where he's made me feel like he's the guy um in 10 starts I think um I'm starting to wonder you know if he's anything I'm curious if you've've seen anything. I haven't watched most Washington football team.

I mean, Washington's, you know, they're 30th on offense, they're 29th in pass, and 30th on third down. Their yards were placed 31st. I mean, it's just like... It's bad. I'm just looking at...

Let me see if I have any stats. So here's the deal with like playing from behind, man So here's the deal with playing from behind, man. It's like when he plays from behind, they drop passes, right? The offensive line isn't as good. They're 10-0 since 2018, including the playoffs and trailing at halftime. That's just crazy to me. Ravens offense. Ravens offense is first in points per game

first in yards, first in carries Washington's defense is 29th, 31st, and 25th here it is right here Dwayne Haskins and the Ravens defensive ranks since week 9 Haskins first start, ready? completion percentage, Dwayne Haskins is last in the NFL pass yards, last.

Pass cities, last. Passer rating, last. Baltimore's defense is 5-2, 4-4. Not a great matchup. I know it's squares can be, but I kind of just want to watch the Bengals win. You know what I mean? I'm torn between taking the game that I'm... Why don't we do this?

I think we should put in the Bengals and I would consider Baltimore instead of the Dolphins. And which is like the opposite of good strategy because we're taking out our smart discipline pick and throwing in a reckless square one

that we just feel, we both feel good about. But I don't know. I feel like we both kind of like the bangles and the dolphins is like a classic it's like a classic pick for us well why don't we talk about cleveland because that one was our first one that we liked uh that's they're going on the road against dallas We still like that? We still like the four and a half? I would say let's pick between the Ravens and the Bengals for our fifth spot.

Yeah, I got the Ravens, right? I think. It's so stupid to play the Ravens in this situation. Why don't we let it go with Joe Burrow? Why don't we take the Bengals? Let's just fade Jacksonville and take Joe Burrow? Why don't we take the Bengals? All right. Let's just do it. Let's fade Jacksonville and take Joe Burrow. I'm good with doing that.

I really want to take Baltimore, but that's not what you should do. I guess if they win by 500, we'll be like, see, we should have taken Baltimore. So Chicago plus 2.5, Cincinnati minus 3, Cleveland plus 4.5, Miami plus 6.5, Tampa minus 7. Interesting board, Jeff minus seven interesting board jeff very interesting board we're gonna be watching some weird games but that's how that's how you win at sports betting you have to bet the weird games i nobody in your

super contest pool is going to be on the bangles nobody and no one's going to be and no one i think that all the sharps will be off baltimore too no one's going to bet no there's no sharp about baltimore too muchps will be off Baltimore too. No one's going to bet, no Sharp will bet Baltimore. Too much can go, I mean, Lamar Jackson twists his ankle in the first series and you're done. Right? Like I can't see anyone betting Baltimore, right? I don't think so. Like any Sharp person. I agree.

We've got five. All right. All right. We did it. We did it, man. Whew. Okay. They're getting it easier.

We did it, guys. I, this is a weird week, but we made it man okay we did it guys I this is a weird week but we made it and I feel bad about not playing Baltimore already but nonetheless we've done it

we have our five picks in as usual we have time to change them so if something happens injuries I

you know I look at the Bengals roster and I decide we're not doing it then we're putting Baltimore in there but as of right now we have our five picks thank you guys for joining us eight and seven I look at the Bengals roster and I decide we're not doing it, then we're putting Baltimore in there. But as of right now, we have our five picks. Thank you guys for joining us.

Eight and seven, got to be better this week. Have a great weekend, everyone. Please rate, review, comment, subscribe. At Jeff Schwartz, at MM4, I believe it's right. MM410, yep. MM410. All right, everyone. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the football and win some bets.