Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 NFL Week 1 Bets We Can Agree On

Episode Date: September 10, 2020

Geoff and Matt settle on five Week 1 SuperContest picks that just make sense. Find out which games reach a consensus, who might be a surprise Coach of the Year and the pass catcher that should shine this week. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Reduced speeds after 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report. September 10th. Football is f***ing back, folks. Woo! Matt, let's go! I'm so excited. Let's fly! Let's go! We're doing this!

Jeff, when those Super Contest lines dropped, it was like hearing the Beatles for the first time. I don't know how to explain it. It was just this feeling of like, oh, we're home. I know this. I bookmarked that page. We're going to be looking at it for 17 weeks. Let's fly.

We have made it. We have made it. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart. We need some housekeeping. Got to at least say the title of the podcast. I have always said, Matt, that I viewed football coming back

as society returning a little bit back to normal. I don't know if that's true, but I know we have some normalcy with betting these lines. And so what we're going to do on Thursdays, this is going to be our, last year we kind of just meandered through it. We have a much better format this year.

Matt and I are going to agree on five picks each year. So basically five super contest picks. We're going to use the super contest lines that came out Wednesday night. That is the universal lines that everyone uses. We're going to pick five of those. We're only going to pick sides. We're not going to pick totals. Now, I might throw in a, hey, I like this total.

Matt might throw in, hey, I like this total. That's not what we're doing. That's advice. Obviously, we're going to pick five games each and every week. We will track it on through. So we'll go over every game. We'll give you something for every game. Then we'll decide if we like it or not.

And at the end, we'll have a couple of props. I'm telling you right now, guys, there's a prop for Thursday Night Football that I absolutely love. It's my favorite bet of the entire weekend. So we'll get to that at the very end. But Matt, let's start with the first game of the season. Go ahead, buddy. Lead us off. Let's do it. So the point of this is going to be, we're going to go through all the games. And the point of this is we'll agree on our five. We'll try to convince each other. And at the end of the season, we'll see if we are actually smarter than everybody else. That's a good way to do this. So let's start with the aforementioned Thursday night game, which is tonight. That's a good way to do this. So let's start with the aforementioned

Thursday night game, which is tonight. There's a game tonight. If you're listening to this, you may, the game might've already happened. Think about that. The line on this game, it's Houston at Kansas city. Kansas city is laying nine points as the Superbowl champs. Do you have a feel for this one? I think this line is very high, okay? Like, think about this, Matt. Nine points. That's a lot of points in the NFL, right? I believe it's the highest line of the week, right?

Nine points. I mean, Baltimore is laying eight, and they're playing the Browns, who did not make the playoffs last year. The Chiefs are laying nine points against a playoff team from last season this is a lot of points it opened at nine and a half I've seen some tens it's now back at nine obviously for a show I can I cannot take this I just I can't like my brain tells me to take the Texans my heart tells

me to take Kansas City obviously I think Kansas City Kansas City's going to score a lot of points. I like the Chiefs team total of 32. That feels like a better play. You root for a ton of points. But obviously, I would not put this in our five picks. I am going to make the case for KC, which I did not expect was going to be what I was going to be doing here. So they've won all of their home opener. They've won every opening game, actually, under Andy Reid since 2014. Look, they have a real advantage here because no one's seen how they're going to use Clyde Edwards' Hilariette. No one's seen how they're going to use Nicole Hardman and Sammy Watkins' Back Healthy. They're going to come out, I think, pretty hot. And meanwhile, Houston is going to have to be integrating two key

specialists with David Johnson and Brandon Cooks. And look, this is a team we saw the last time Houston played a game. They got annihilated by Kansas City. I agree that this is obviously the highest line of the week. But if you're going to lay nine points, do it with the team that we know is going to be awesome, that we know is going to come out firing against, you know, the Texans who we don't really know what they are yet. I'm not afraid of this one. I would put this as a maybe for me. This is why, by the way, I like the Chiefs to score a bunch of points in this game is for the reasons that you mentioned, obviously right is that they're gonna score a ton of points but i do houston played him well in the first game last year they won that game obviously now mahomes was a little bit beat up and the chiefs defense was was playing um you know much

better down the stretch but i'll put this in the maybe category for now um i don't feel as comfortable in this i just it's a lot of points at All the public, and we're going to talk a lot about this public versus sharp betting. All the money is on Kansas City. And I don't know if I feel comfortable with that one. I think there's far better plays on the board. So we'll put Kansas City down at minus nine. It's a maybe right now. We'll come back to it, obviously, at the end.

What's our next game? Okay. That's a good maybe uh the next game is the first uh early game one of the first early games sunday uh we've got cleveland at baltimore which you already mentioned is another highlight baltimore is an eight point favorite to the browns what's your feel here my feeling is baltimore minus eight this goes right along with my theory of veteran team against kind of young team, young coach, right? Well, obviously the Ravens are going to be a well-oiled machine. No one's had time to practice for them. No one's had time to tackle.

No one's had time to do any of this. And now you have Cleveland with a brand new head coach, first-time head coach, Baker Mayfield coming off a bad season. I think he'll be better this year. You have a brand new left tackle in Jedrick Wills who struggled a little bit in camp, a brand new right tackle, Myles Garrett returning after a six-game suspension. It just feels like Baltimore is going to run over the Browns. And I would put Baltimore minus eight here as a, not a hard in the top five, but like a little bit more than,

you know, like a soft Kansas City minus nine. Like I think Baltimore minus eight here is a really good play. Yeah, let's put this in the yes column because you don't have to convince me here. Same case. This also just feels like Baltimore after eight months of thinking about losing

and that their offense couldn't get anything going, that they're going to run wild here. I will say, I actually think the Browns might be better than the Texans. So I don't think that this is like, you know, this is one point between the KC game and this. So I'm not afraid to maybe take the two biggest favorites of the week uh right off of the right off the bat yeah i mean you you could obviously uh put them together and and have some fun with that at some point that'd be a nice tease and maybe at some point we'll we'll end up with that but but right now um obviously we're not we're not doing that at the moment um all right buddy next game next game is another big favorite indianapolis is an eight point road favorite at jacksonville and believe it or not i actually have a lean here um i have nothing on this game i'm gonna stay the heck away so be my guest well let me let me use this airspace in case anyone out there is thinking about playing this game the play here is jacksonville okay

because jacksonville first of all in any other year anybody will tell you especially early in the season you want to take those big home underdogs right and this i get this isn't a conventional year but that actually might benefit jacksonville because this is philip river's first game with the colts uh indie like do we even know if they're that good last year on the road they were a completely different team they were two and six on the road last year and i guess that's five and three at home uh so i like jacksville also this opened at six and a half so everyone is just crushing uh indy on this one but once that once it hit that number of eight which is kind of a nice number if you're betting an underdog

uh the bets split i i lost my place in where this is, but the bets have come the other way. They have, yes. Yeah, so there's a slight discrepancy. It's not as much as I thought it was, but I would say if you're betting this game, Jacksonville is the play, but I don't want to put it in our top five.

So these are one of the games that our former boss, Chad Millman, would say is like a hold your nose and bet game, right? Home underdog. Now, the home field advantage is so interesting this year because there probably is not going to be as much but you're playing outside in September at 1 p.m in Jacksonville home team's getting eight points so it's a lot of guys it's not college football where you have you know teams are favored by 27 points it's a lot of points in thefl so if you're betting this game the play is 100 jackson i'm with you um i'd sit this one out um all right next up buddy next up is miami at new england's uh the tom brady less patriots are uh six and a half point favorites thoughts i would

ride hard on the patriots in this game um i i I know that you obviously aren't going to like it. It's a very public play, but the Dolphins, man, just don't have a good roster. And their roster is young. Their roster is inexperienced. And we're going again to talk about the Patriots. Yes, Cam Noon is new there, but they have a system in place. They have players in place. I think this is a Cam Noon is new there, but they have a system in place.

They have players in place. I think this is a Cam Noon revenge tour. And again, I would not put this game in our top five, but I would definitely take the Patriots here. I mean, those are good emotional reasons, but when you look at the actual split of the money here, 81% of the money is on the Dolphins, which means that the public is on the Dolphins,

which means that everybody, the public is going to crush New England on this one. And I would bet New England if I had to, because who's going to do better with the pandemic lack of preparation, Bill Belichick or Brian Flores? Sorry, Brian Flores. You lost to Bill Belichick. Having said that, six and a half is a lot. We saw last year that New England couldn't really score. So I you know, I don't know. This feels like a stay away for the five, but I would say New England probably wins, but maybe I don't feel great about the cover. We'll keep this one out of it because the next game I really like.

Yeah. So we've got one yes so far. That's Baltimore and a maybe with KC. This next game is the Las Vegas Raiders. Oh boy. Laying three points on the road at Carolina. Your hometown Panthers. This is a game that the three scares the bejesus out of me, but the Raiders should blow out the Panthers. Like it should not

be a close game and i know that teddy bridgewater is teddy covers games like he is an absolute covering machine right he's 27 and 7 as a starter against the spread that's ridiculous right he's 17 and 3 against the spread as an underdog it's unbelievable but he doesn't have the saints right he doesn't have the vikings defense he a young, inexperienced Panthers defense. He generally has a young, inexperienced Panthers offense, right? They have a brand new head coach, a brand new OC, a brand new DC, and a brand new quarterback, right? I don't think the Raiders are going to be any good this year.

I really don't. I think people are much higher on them. But I just don't expect the Panthers to be good either. I think the Raiders come into Carolina and win this game by a touchdown. But the three points scares the heck out of me betting on the Raiders. But I like this play. I would put it in my top five. Another team where the Raiders were a completely different team at home versus on the road. Last year, they were the second worst team in terms of point differential on the road. This is one of those early games that most of the smart coaches seem to have figured out.

I don't know if we're throwing John Gruden in that category just yet. The Raiders also, every year, seem to come out really slow at the beginning of the season. I don't know, man. I don't feel great about this. I liked it a lot better at one and a half. Now it's been up to three. I don't feel great about this. I liked it a lot better at one and a half. So did I. Now it's been up to three. I don't know. How about we put it on the maybe category?

Yeah. All right. That's a maybe. All right. So Carolina is our second maybe. Let's move on to Gabe Goodwin's New York Jets at the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are six and a half point favorites. And I feel like i know

what you're gonna do here i'm not i'm not betting this game i have no opinion on this game whatsoever yeah i'm gonna stay off this i will say i was very i was very excited to make the bills case for you but then i realized that that would mean we'd have to go with the six and a half point favorite josh allen in week one yeah so that's going to be a hard pass. Yeah, I'm passed on that. By the way, a couple services that I look at for kind of stats that would not have the Jets winning outright in this game. I thought they were not there.

I mean, Buffalo's defense, amazing defense. The Jets offense has had like no healthy practices. We don't know what's going on with that backfield. I feel like Gase could kind of use that to his advantage and like throw some weird stuff against the wall but that's a that's a hard pass i don't want to spend one more second thinking about there's also there's also a chance for a reverse line movement by the end of the week i mean there is so much money coming in so much so many tickets i should say on buffalo this is definitely a public so if you're looking for some movement late it could be on the jets all right next game let's let's

we're not talking about this game anymore. Yeah, good hypothesis. Let's banish that game from this podcast permanently. All right, the next game is Chicago at Detroit. The Detroit Lions, everyone's darling, including yours, Jeff. They're three-point favorites. It's a one o'clock game. What do you think?

I would not touch this game at all. If I were, I'd take the Lions. But I have no feel for this game whatsoever it's just simple it's a three-point spread at lines at home they're just saying these teams are even on neutral field uh which would lead me to believe i'd take the lions because then they're better but i i don't know what that defense is going to be um i i'm not touching this game i feel like everyone's really down on the bears because this sucks is that why well the detroit's defense sucks like what what about their defense are we scared of their best player plays for the eagles now i

mean i i don't i mean this is the game for mitch trubisky to come out and prove people wrong if there's any uh this is probably going to be a low scoring game because stafford coming off of the back surgery with no preseason I doubt he's going to be you know firing darts out of the gate yeah I think this is a probably a good bet for an under the totals 44 and a half which is on the higher side for some of these games this week I I in a tight game who do you like Chicago's defense or Detroit's I like Matt Stafford to have the ball last Matt Stafford coming off of back I look I that this, I'm not like impassioned about this, but I would say that Chicago would be my lean here.

All right, let's go next. I think this next play, I'm very in on it. So go ahead. Oh, all right. I'm curious to see what side. It's Green Bay. It's the other NFC North game. It's Green Bay at Minnesota.

Minnesota is a short home favorite. They are two and a half point favorites. What side are you on? I'm with the Packers here, plus two and a half. The Vikings are down, well, not down, but they have a revamped secondary, a very young secondary, okay? Daniel Hunter has put on IR, Everson Griffin left. They have in Gawkway, who just got traded to them. But you have to supplement a young secondary with a pass rush. They don't have a pass rush this week. They don't have it this week. I don't understand.

Look, I don't think the Packers are going to be great this year, maybe 9-7, 8-8. But this line feels off. I just don't get it. I think they're trying to get people to sucker in on the Vikings at minus 2.5. I'm taking the Packers here at the plus 2.5. I would 100 100 put this

into um i put it into a teaser first of all but i also put it into our five picks i think i'm with you here i think i'm jumping on the like very public statement of everyone is seemingly just jumping off the packers because last year they seemed to be a little bit overrated. Well, they were a little bit overrated, but they still got to the NFC championship and they ran into a very good team and lost in the 49ers. So look, the Vikings have almost an entirely new set of starters on defense with hardly any prep. You mentioned the injuries. Aaron Rodgers has done well against the Vikingsikings lately they won both games last year this is going to be a tough game for minnesota to try and figure it out they don't have the home crowd which is going to be a big piece for them or has been in the past

uh and you're only it's the two and a half points just feels i agree there's something weird about that like it feels like vegas doesn't fully feel confident they're not sure where they want you to go. I think everybody's a little low on the Packers, and this is a good chance for us to buy in. I'm with you. Here's a couple things here from last season. Last year, they played twice, obviously. Packers won both. You mentioned

that. Cousins barely completed 47% of his throws in those two games. And just an alert here, Unders 9-2 the last 11 times in this series fyi but are we putting are we putting green bay in there for sure i think let's put them as a yes for now okay so green bay plus the two and a half but i think the next game like the next game we're getting to is like a sharps verse um verse squares game when i i i think we're on the right side of this.

Go ahead. All right. It's Philadelphia laying five and a half on the road at my Washington football team. Are you on the sharp side or the public side, Jeff? I'm on the sharp side. I'm on the Washington football team. Let's go.

The Eagles are a mess right now, right? Like they're just, the injuries are piling up. But I think that people, Matt, I've said this to you and we've said this on the podcast. I know there's a lot of, and we talked about this on the show Tuesday. There is a lot of distractions with Washington, right? Like we understand that. But the team is not that bad if you look at just kind of the roster, right?

The defense is going to be outstanding. The defense is going to, they can rush defense is going to be, they can rush the passer, and they have a good secondary. Offensively, they have McLaurin, obviously. They have, they have, what now? They have, oh, who is it? Steven Sims Jr., Dontrell Iman, and they drafted Antonio Gibson to run the ball as well.

And offensive line-wise, they're fine. They have to figure out left tackle, obviously. That's a concern. Otherwise, they're fine. I just think they're better than people give them credit for, and this is a lot of points for Eagles to go on the road. A few things about this game, and this is coming from a guy wearing a Washington Nationals MLB Jam shirt.

So obviously I was a little invested in this one. But as Jeff will tell you, I tend to fade my own home team here. Look, the Sharps are all over Washington in this, which is usually a sign that you should probably follow their lead. This only has 33% of the bets Washington does, but 54% of the money,

which is a telltale sign for people who are new to gambling. If there's a big discrepancy, that means the big bets are coming in where the money is. This opened at six, and it moved towards Washington, which means that doesn't really jive with how the bets have come in. I will say this, too. Washington's offense, no one knows what it's going to look like,

and it's going to be like Carolina's offense, like no one knows what it's going to look like. And it's going to be like a weird, it's going to be like Carolina's offense last year, which was, which Scott Turner, their current OC was the offensive coordinator for. Like a lot of like weird motion, a lot of running back stuff out of the backfields. Like it's just, it's not going to be conventional. I don't think they listed their RB1 as JD McKissick. That guy's not going to be the featured back. Like, I don't think that anybody really knows how Washington's going to come out. And you mentioned the strength of Washington's team,

defensive line. The entire Eagles offensive line is falling apart. Left tackle problems. Like, what position is Jason Peters going to play in three days? Left tackle, but still, it's a quick turnaround though for him. Yeah.

So I think that's the strength on a weakness. I think, you know, the Eagles could potentially be caught off guard. And I like Washington here too. though for him yeah it's so i think that's the strength on a weakness uh i think you know the eagles are could potentially be caught off guard uh and i like watching here too i'm uh i'm with you so we'll put that in our in our in our game now um all right go to the next game this one's gonna this is gonna break my heart but i'm gonna do it anyways yeah so this is seattle uh two and a half point favorites at Atlanta on the road. I feel like everyone's going to be on one side or the other in this game.

All the numbers tell you to bet Seattle, right? We can go over them. I mean, Dan Quinn has not been good against the spread in his career. Russell Wilson is great against the spread in his career. Week one, the last five years, Atlanta's one and four against the spread. All career um week one the last five years atlanta's one and four against the spread um all those don't point to atlanta plus atlanta always breaks your heart they're a terrible team to bet on for the reason i just tell you they always do it but the play here is 100 atlanta like this is my favorite play of the week um atlanta is a better football team

than in seattle it's not close. There's a better team. We both, I think, believe Matt Ryan is going to have a great year. We obviously know they're very talented on offense. The question, obviously, is the defense, right? Is the defense going to play finally up to the talent level they have? They have a defensive coach as well. They should be a better defense. But Seattle, every game plays those 18 to 12 games.

It's like Kevin Clark who tweets out all the time, like they never play a normal game, right? Yeah. And when you don't play normal games, I cannot bet on you, especially when I think the other team is just better than you right now. So I'm going with Atlanta plus two. They're going to break my heart. I know it.

But I really like this play, Matt. I think they win this game outright, obviously. But I'll take the two points anyways. The Seahawks are actually one and four against the spread in their last five against the Falcons, which I find kind of interesting because they seem to play a lot. And Dan Quinn obviously came from Seattle. Last year, by the way, Seattle was up like 22-0. I had Seattle minus 7.5, I want to say, last year in Atlanta.

They were up 22-0, and then they were up 29-7 and didn't cover the game. God, yeah. They won like 29-22. The Falcons covered. I think that was one of those games I was watching and very grateful I did not have a betting interest in. I mean, generally, this follows the rules of, of like let's get back to the basics here like

you're taking a short home dog on a team coming west east i'm not a big buyer in that stuff especially with a great coach like p carol um but in i don't know in a in this kind of year sometimes it feels right to just take what you think is probably the right play uh i'm with you here this was one of my favorites too. Let's go with Atlanta. A couple of things to notice here too as well. A ton of money right now. 72% of betting tickets are on Seattle,

which is a road favorite I don't like. There's also a reverse line movement to the under, if you're wondering. So that's a play that I, that's something I would kind of auto bet reverse line movement on the under, but I'm not, I'm not betting totals. I just feel weird about totals.

And Zuri brought this up. Great job by our producer, Zuri. The lockout year, 2011, obviously no off season. The first two weeks of the year, the over was 22,

nine and one. That's my point about tackling being an issue. So I'm going to watch out. I'm going to throw these unders out to you. It's, you know,

I don't, I don't, I don't, that's why we're not betting totals right now. I really don't feel comfortable doing that. So I'm putting to watch out. I'm going to throw these unders out to you. That's why we're not betting totals right now. I really don't feel comfortable doing that. So I'm putting Atlanta in here plus the – oh, it's two and a half. So plus two and a half. You can get a half point.

We got a really good number. So let's go with that. While you're writing that down, our next game is the LA Chargers. Three-point road favorites. Another nice number if you're into that side they're going to cincinnati and joe burrow uh what do you like here don't stay the f away from this game the only play i like if you're gonna do two things here's what you do you bet on the bangles team total under which i think is a little bit if you could find it on

sunday because most of these most of these props come out Sunday morning, look for a Joey Bosa over sack total prop. He's playing against the worst right tackle in the NFL in Bobby Hart for the Bengals. Joe Burrow's first game, obviously, in the NFL. Find that prop and bet it, all right? If you can find it. I don't know if you have an offshore,

you have a legal book in the U.S., go find that bet Sunday morning. That's when a lot of these props post, these odd kind of odder props post and bet that prop. Otherwise, stay the heck away from this game. I love that tip. And that's a great one. I will say, though, doesn't that make you kind of want to play the Chargers?

I mean, Joe Burrow's first game against an NFL defense that's on a different team. That is a tough, and this is a real defense. Like, they didn't have a great year last year, but I know Derwin James isn't going to play. But Chris Harris, Joey Bosa, like, they're a pretty solid team. I think that he's going to have a really, really tough time. And it's only three points. Like, I think the Chargers are a little bit slept on in general. This is a great spot for them. just just remember what you said out loud you said

chargers on the road minus three who would ever bet the chargers on the road i just think that the chargers have not shown the ability to win a game like this in in years like they don't they just they fumble these games away yeah i i i hear you i don't think that tyra taylor's is the kind of quarterback who's gonna lose them this game and i think joe burrow is not ready to win a game like this so i would say the charges i was gonna make a stronger case for them and i kind of thought you were gonna be with me but we can put this in the maybe or maybe i'll put it maybe i'll put in the maybe category right now i think it's a go man it's there's only one rookie quarterback playing this weekend and i think he's really going to struggle that's a ship i'll go down on

um all right speaking of speaking of ships uh the tampa bay buccaneers are heading to new orleans uh where the saints are three and a half point favorites. It's an interesting number there. I mean, what do you think? I would take the Saints here. I don't feel comfortable doing it. I do not want to put it in this podcast. And there are five picks. Yeah. Can we just say we're not going to pick this?

Because this is a layoff for me too. But I'm just curious what you think. I didn't say it's a win. Here's from a gambling angle. Here's something that's really interesting. So right now, 15% of tickets are on the under. 90% of the money. The under has moved a point and a half from 49 and a half to 48.

That's something you should jump on if you are a fan like myself of reverse line movement especially in unders it's a great way to bet unders guys i know unders are not fun to root for and that you know you want to root for points but this is this is legit line movement and this is like something where you look and say hey man sharps are on this game this is the play i want to make um but i i'm i just i think saints win this game but i i'm not betting on it yeah i think uh you know i guess this line i think it moved up a little bit right it was i think it was at three no it went down it was at four four and a half it's it steamed on down there buddy yeah so it moved down actually i assumed it went the other way um because of

the mike evans news that he probably won't play. I would say New Orleans, too. But this is this is, again, one of those where, like, we have no clue what Tampa is going to be like. Tampa could come out and be gangbusters or they could come out and be a little bit shaky. And, oh, they could be something one day. But Evans is hurt and they have to gel a little bit. So this is one where I just like I want to watch it and I don't necessarily want to play it. Oh, I want to watch this game. I would not not i would not bet this game yeah same pitch all right let's move on to uh nfc west arizona at san francisco the the uh defending nfc champs are

six and a half point favorites i have a lean here i'm curious if you do i mean, the play here is Arizona, but I don't want to make it. I feel like I just, I don't know what a lack of an offseason has done to kind of Calum Murray. I think Calum Murray is going to be really good. But, you know, with New Hopkins there, how's the connection going to be there? The Niners are pissed. They're going to be upset about what happened last year. I know the Super Bowl hangover, I know it's a real thing. I get it. But without the offseason, I feel like they'll have less of a super hangover trent williams obviously is in the lineup now i know they're missing debo samuel i know they're missing brandon iuke um the rookie of arizona state i just i i lean arizona i know that

this is i think arizona is a sharp-ish play um but i just oh no never mind i am very sorry about that i am confused all the money is on arizona 68 of tickets and 91 of the money do not bet this i'm off this game off we're not betting it why wait why are you off of it because all the sharps are on it no no that actually the the sharps are on san francisco on action it says there's 91 of the monies on the cardinals right but 68 of the bets are which the Cardinals. Right, but 68% of the bets are, which means it's public and sharp money. It's not like there's not a sharp play. I mean, look, there's a 23% discrepancy on bets and money here. So I actually think this is the sharp play. But let me give you some numbers here, Jeff, because I thought you were probably

going to be a little hesitant here, but I think i could push you over the edge on arizona okay so this is a great stat since 2000 super bowl losers in week one of the following year 316 and one against the spread in week one last year was the only push it was sean mcveigh's rams uh one by three against carolina uh cliff kingsbury five one and two against Carolina. Cliff Kingsbury, 5-1-2 against the spread as a road underdog. Last year, I don't know if you remember these two games. I had to sort of refresh. San Francisco barely beat Arizona the second time they played. And the first time they played,

it was a game the whole time. And Arizona was just not who Arizona became later in the season. I get that DeAndre Hopkins is going to have to acclimate here, but I actually kind of think that benefits Arizona because he's not going to be totally ready to gel in this offense, but he's going to get all the attention anyway. And San Francisco has no healthy corners except Richard Sherman.

So I think that that's going to take their only strength away in the secondary onto the rest of the offense, which we know is pretty good. Plus, doesn't it feel like Cliff Kingsbury is going to take their only strength away in the secondary onto the rest of the offense which we know is pretty good plus doesn't it feel like cliff kingsbury is going to come out with some dopey wrinkle that everyone in the media is going to be obsessed with after this week and oh wow arizona everyone's offseason darling here they come they're going to come out and win the nfc west it doesn't just feel like that kind of thing i feel like this is a nice chance to buy low on a team that everyone seems to like against a vulnerable Niners team. The points you made about the Super Bowl hangover and the next season against the spread is great.

Kingsbury gets a spread as a road, as a road, not really as a road dog, but as a, oh no, it was here. It's a 5-2. They were a road dog against every game but one last season. Yeah. So, no, they were all road dogs all last season, all was here. It was 5-2. They were a road dog against every game but one last season. Yeah. So, no, they were all road dogs all last season, all eight games. 5-1 and 2 against the spread. They're all great.

And I think you've convinced me that this is probably a play that I kind of just have to do. Like I have to make this bet, right? This is – you kind of have to do it, right? I think you might have to. The only – yeah, I mean, the injuries for San Francisco make this a little easier for me. Let's put it in the maybes. Okay. Let's put it in the maybes. Because I feel like we do have a lot we agree on already.

All right. This is another interesting one this is Dallas this is the Sunday night game uh son uh Dallas is a three-point road favorite at the Rams talk about uh what you're supposed to bet here what side are you on well I I think this is a um one just zillion percent stay away game i don't think i don't think you touch this game at all um i i i would i would think dallas wins this game but this is just like i are you so you're telling me that that dallas will be a six point favorite home in this game i'm what what i will tell you is uh there's a huge money and bets discrepancy here. Two-thirds of the bets, the public is all over Dallas, and the money is two-thirds on the Rams. So this is the biggest sharp play of the week. And I think the reason is, there's a few reasons.

of blowing teams out in week one. They've won their three week one games under McVay. Their first year, they put up 49. The next year, they put up 33. And last year, which defied the trend as we just went over, they beat Carolina on the road. Look, I think that LA, this is a huge spot for them. And a new head coach in Dallas. I like Dallas a lot this year.

I think that they could go all the way to the super bowl, but I feel like the ramps could maybe pick them off here. This is another short, this is another home dog that every, that all the sharps are on. Those are usually the ones you want to be on the side of. I mean, look,

I, I think you have to have betting principles and one of them is home dog with the sharps on the home dog. It feels like – so, oh, man. This feels like the sucker bet of week one. Like everyone taking Dallas minus three? Everybody taking Dallas. It's like, oh, the Rams suck. Like they stunk last year.

Let's put it in the maybe category. I think you make some valid points there last year let's put it in the maybe category i think you make i think you make some valid some valid points there so let's put a strong maybe like okay like like i'm crossing off rate raiders minus three like that's that's no longer we've we that's a that's off the maybe list that's not a good bet where that's that's gone so i'll replace it with the rams minus three um all right let's go to uh to the monday night football games yeah so the early one two monday night games i wish they did this every week uh pittsburgh is a six point uh road favorite at the giants that's 7 15 monday night eastern uh i have nothing here so if you have a feeling here talk me into it pittsburgh should kick their ass but i don't want to bet this game

yeah six point road favorites mike tomlin feels like he always lets people down in this spot does this feels like a pass although fading joe judge in week one does feel like a good idea like this this feels like a teaser team to tease down to to basically right pick them and just like they're just better than the giants i think but your point about tomlin though not showing up in these games it's been pittsburgh's calling card for years right just a game they should win on the road and just fall flat so i'd stay the heck away from this game this is yeah this feels like the public just bet this one like crazy it's open at three and a half so that's uh that's that's a little bit of a little you're not getting the best number here so this is a pass for me um and

then the late monday night game is we talked about this a little bit before we went on the air tennessee two and a half point favorites all of a sudden at denver uh why don't you talk us through this one so the line started opened at den at tennessee like plus one ish right even plus one ish after the von Even plus one-ish. After the Vaughn Miller injury news, and he's out now for multiple weeks at least, it steamed all the way to Tennessee minus two and a half. I don't want to touch this game, but the play is Denver, right?

Like, Vaughn Miller should not move a line three points. That's what quarterbacks do to a line. This is an extreme overreaction to one defensive player getting hurt i understand that bradley chubb is not completely healthy yet and they might be out for two best pass rushers but this feels like an extreme overreaction that i we have much better plays in my opinion on the the definite list and the maybe list i wouldn't put this in here but the play is 100 denver plus two and a half i guess you're right i guess yeah i mean they do have the only true home field advantage this season because

the altitude uh you're getting them at a great number if if you have no other leans this week that that makes sense uh and i have a feeling we'll both be uh just chasing on monday night anyway and and uh going with the points. So, um, that's a pass. I, um, let's, uh,

let's get to this. We have, we have eight games that we have identified, right? Yeah. So we have, that's pretty good. I'm impressed.

So we have Baltimore, Baltimore minus eight. That is in the top five. We agree, right? Yeah. Yeah. So here's the ones I have down for the top five,

Baltimore minus eight. That's locked in stone. Green Bay plus two and a half. We walking that in, you think? Let's go through them all. I'm not sure. Washington plus five and a half. Okay.

Atlanta plus two and a half. I think that's my next favorite. That's my favorite of the week. So that's it. Okay. Let's have those two. Arizona plus six and a half. Yep.

Rams plus three. Chargers minus three is out out i'm not picking the chargers minus three chargers out i i thought was my idea it's out that's out and then chiefs minus nine i just i i it's a big number i can't do it so who who do you want to throw out for rams plus three because that you seem very i'll give you that you seem very – so we either throw out Arizona, Washington, or Green Bay. I think I feel better about Arizona than I do about the Rams. I like the Rams, but I think I like Arizona, Washington, and the Rams about equally. What about Packers? Where does that leave us? What about Packers minus two and a half?

Plus two and a half? I don't know. I really like that play. I think that play, you got to make... How can you... Look, the Packers, yeah, sure, they had problems last year. They own the Vikings, and the Vikings are hurt. I don't understand how you can't –

I just think this line is really weird, and they're trying to get people to bet the Vikings. Yeah, okay. So let's – I'm fine with that. Let's put in Green Bay. So it's either Washington, Arizona, or the Rams. You love Washington. You've talked about it all week.

I do love Washington, and you like them too. That was the one that I didn't really have to convince you. Yeah. So, so that's between Arizona and the Rams. I think Arizona is the play. I think Arizona is, is probably the play.

Cause you're, you're not as sold on the Rams as me. No, but Arizona makes plus three though at three, though, at home. Like, that is a nice. I just think the Rams are going to be the team this year that we're like, wow, they're not very good. Man.

All right. So, to recap here, we have three. We have Atlanta plus two and a half. Oh, we have four. Right. We have Washington as our fourth. So, we have Atlanta plus two and a half. We have Washington plus five and a half at home against Philly.

We have Arizona plus six and a half at San Francisco when we have Baltimore minus eight at home against Philly. And Green Bay plus two and a half. Oh, so we have our five. Yeah, but I'm asking, do you want to put Arizona or the Rams? That's my question. These are your two, the one you like. Oh, man.

I like it. Now I have to have some accountability on your show. I think, yeah, let's go with it. Let's go with it. Baltimore minus eight. Green Bay plus two and a half on the road against the Vikings. Washington at home plus five and a half. Atlanta at home plus two and a half.

Arizona on the road as a visitor plus six and a half. You good with those? I feel good about it. I feel good about those. I like it. We've got four dogs and we've got the best. Huge favorite. Yeah, but they're probably the biggest discrepancy in the level of talent on the two teams.

I'm with you there. Would you like to share your favorite prop? Because I have a fantastic one, and I'm going to need some runway for this one here. Well, all right. I do have a prop. I'm going to make this case. i'm not betting the house on this jeff but there's a little bit of a case to be made here for uh my guy ron rivera to be the coach of the year this year so okay let me just lay this case out i've i've lost the the uh what the actual number is i'm gonna find it while we talk or something maybe one one of the producers could. So Ron Rivera missed a day of practice this week because he had to undergo cancer treatments, which is horrible. But if you think about what's happened to Ron Rivera since he took this job in Washington. So they changed the name, which he's heavily involved in.

They have a total roster hoopla. Their whole team basically transformed essentially in the course of this offseason. No one expects this team to be anything. And they're going to be kind of good, right? Because they've got the defense. They've got Chase Young. They're going to be keeping games close. right? Because they've got the defense. They've got Chase Young. They're going to be keeping games close. That NFC East is a mess beyond Dallas.

I think that they could do one of those like, hey, there's seven and eight going into week 17. Like if they could just sneak into the playoffs, like that could be how this season ends. And I think that he'll get all the credit for it. this season ends um and i think that he'll get all the credit for it and he should because no coach in the league has more sort of power in the front office other than maybe like a reader belichick than ron rivera like he is the the face of this franchise with the adversity that he's going through uh with all the scandal around the team if he can write the ship i think plus 1600 is a very good bet for ron rivera for coach of the year what do you think of that um i i think the thing about this one matt is that you have to think about the record of coach of the year it's typically not an 8-8 team so you're you would get you would

be coach of the year based on nostalgia right right? Basically like that, hey, man, he's not nostalgia, but just more emotional, right? Like he got through the cancer. He got through everything else that's happening on the team. And he got him to A&8, right? That's what you make this bet, right? Yeah, I realize that you'd probably have to do better than A&8. But he's the last bunch. There's never been a below double-digit winner of this award,

so I realize that that kind of defeats the case, but I don't know. I don't think I've ever seen a team in more tumult coming into this season than Washington currently is. They don't even have a name. You're right. So if they have a winning season out of nowhere or make the playoffs, I don't know. I think that it would be

a very compelling case to make um i i'm i'm with you with like the just the idea of of this bet but i i small small money on this bet okay here's my favorite play of the entire weekend you guys ready for this let's hear it it's tra's Travis Kelsey over his receiving total for the game tonight, basically, right? It's anywhere from, I've seen 75 and a half to 80 yards. I would, Matt, I would take the over in this. Here's the reason why. Six games against the Texans in his career. 41 catches, 558 yards.

That's 93 yards per game. The Texas D last year was 32nd on third down. They were 29th against short passes, which are places that we target Travis Kelsey. Travis Kelsey was the second best receiving tight end against man coverage last season. Guess what the Texans play? A ton of man coverage. They will find Kelsey open the entire game. There is no better coach in the NFL of finding matchups for their players than Andy Reid. And Andy Reid has continually done this with Travis Kelsey.

Travis Kelsey is the most important weapon in this offense. I tell you guys this all the time. Look at the playoff game. He had three touchdowns. They found ways to get him open the flat. They ran specific plays to get him open, especially in the red zone. They do a great job with a one-by-three. And here's what makes Travis a tough assignment for anyone.

The Texas linebackers are atrocious against the pass. Good against the run. Football Outsiders ranked them 55 and I think 69 against the pass. They're two inside linebackers. If you set Travis Kelsey out wide, okay, and by himself, the one by three, right? So you can see he's a man coverage. A linebacker's against him, Matt.

The linebacker's too slow to guard him. Put a safety on him. Okay, fine. Too small to go against Travis Kelsey. To me, this is my favorite bet of the entire weekend is Travis Kelsey over for all those reasons. He's dominated them before. The Texans play a ton of man coverage.

He's second best tight end behind Kittle as a man coverage guy. I guess man coverage should say. Texans are terrible on third down. They throw to him all the time on third down. Everything adds up. This is a low number 75 and a half on this is an america this is a sports book in america it's not like an offshore like this

feels way too low i i'm all over this matt i like it what are your uh expectations for how they use clyde edwards the lair in week one uh just kind of the same way they always use the running backs strike screens run they don't really care to run the ball. So I think we're going to see a lot in the past game. And we saw last year, too, in the playoff game, they exploited Houston's man coverage with the running backs. And I think they'll continue to do that now with Clyde Hilaire. Interesting.

Yeah, well, I picked him in one of my fantasy drafts last night, so I'm hopeful he gets lots of catches. Hopefully that draft didn't take too long. No, it was under two and a half hours. So you would have liked it. But dude, I'm telling you, man, that Kelsey bet is the way to go. Let's lock it in.

You've convinced me. I love it. All right, guys. I don't know if I've told you this enough tonight, but I am so excited for football to be back. I'm sure Matt is so excited for football to be back as well. So excited, Jeff. We are all back.

This year, we have some accountability with our gambling picks. We have a lot of fun with this show. We've talked about all your teams. If you have questions, add Jeff Schwartz on social media. You can send a question to our comments in our podcast as well. Really appreciate you guys joining me this entire week. We're back, guys. You stuck with me all offseason.

Now we get to meet the potatoes of why you guys are here. I'll make you smarter the entire season. Have a great, great weekend of watching football. We'll be back Tuesday morning to recap the entire weekend that was. Look forward to next week. Matt, enjoy watching your Washington football team slug to a five-point loss. That's all we need. That's all we need.

22-17. That's all we need to get that W. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. Talk to you guys Tuesday.