Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 5 NFL Week 3 Bets That Just Make Sense

Episode Date: September 24, 2020

Geoff and Matt discover five agreeable Week 3 SuperContest picks you should look out for. Find out which games reach a consensus & why you should consider Sunday Night in New Orleans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool. But with my wireless, I get unlimited for just $30. Impressive. But does yours have 5G included? Of course. And my wireless saves me $400 a year. That's because you all have Xfinity Mobile with your internet. It's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. $30 per line per month. Taxes and fees extra. Compares pricing of top carriers. Xfinity internet required.

Reduced speeds after 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report. Results vary. Taxes and fees extra. Compares pricing of top carriers. Xfinity internet required. Reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. It's Thursday, September 24th, and this is our Super Contest gambling episode. Welcome back. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. Had a little wonky week two and three last week.

Six and four overall in the Super Contest. But Matt, I feel like this week the lines have settled down a little bit. Week two was a little bit weird. We're going to go back to some of our roots. We have a lot of line movement this week. A lot of teams getting points as we enter the week. But Super Contest lines are set now, so we're ready to go, Matt. How you doing, buddy?

Let's do this thing, Jeff. I'm a little perplexed after last week. Didn't have my best week did have a good call i did i did go pretty strong for the raiders uh on the monday night game which ended up being about the only smart thing i said all week so it was a weird week like get the losses we we went against a lot of our principles which we bet a lot of road favorites real heavy and um i don't think we're doing that this week. I don't know.

Some weeks, Matt and I talk beforehand and we kind of, okay, this is what we like, what we don't like. I said one pick to Matt that I sort of do like, and that was it. So we're kind of going this together differently. So I'm excited to see how we end up with our five picks. For those who forget how this works, we're going to go through every game. So you will get tidbits about your favorite team, whether or not we choose them for our five super contest picks. So we'll start with the Thursday night game. We'll go through all of them. And by the end, we'll have five consensus picks for the super contest. Again,

six and four in the year, still positive. We'll take that after two weeks. And Matt, why don't you lead us off, buddy? Well, let's start with the game that you did like. Just get it right out of the way quickly. It's the Thursday night game, which is Miami at Jacksonville. A game I was not planning to spend a whole lot of time watching, but maybe you're going to talk me into it. The Jags are laying three to Brian Fitzmagic and the Dolphins. Well, here's the reason why

I would like this pick a lot by Jacksonville. Again, we know they're supposed to take this. Yeah, Jacksonville, minus three. We know they're supposed to tank. We get it, right? They're supposed to tank, but they're a feisty team, Matt, right? They keep playing hard in these games.

They obviously beat the Colts in week one, which I told everyone, hey, guys, watch out for that game. Felt like a trap game. Don't shake your head at me, Matt. Last week, they lose by three to the 10s. But here's why. Miami is absolutely terrible on defense through two games. They're 28th in the red zone,

and they allow the most big plays in the National Football League. Guess what Jacksonville does well? They're second so far in the red zone, and they allow the most big plays in the National Football League. Guess what Jacksonville does well? They're second so far in the red zone, and they're first on third down. So I get a really good offense with an offense line that's finally healthy and improving, a team that plays their butt off against a Miami team that's just not that talented. You have to hope. If you're picking Miami here, Matt, you're hoping that you get a backdoor cover. It's the only way that you're not going to win this game outright so last week uh i i was i had a bet with my buddy um miami was

was uh what five and a half point home dogs to buffalo and we were talking in the lead up to the game we were like why wouldn't we take miami and then my buddy goes, you know, I can just see it now. Miami is going to be down 11. They're going to be driving with Fitzpatrick with four minutes left. And we're going to be locked. We're going to be like, we have no chance of losing this. And that's exactly what happened.

They backdoor cover every single game. I don't know why of all the games this week, this is the one you like. I will say. No, I know it's not, it's not the only one I like. I like a lot of them, but I just, with a Thursday, like out of the bang,

I felt like we might get a Thursday night football game in the mix. Real quick, Dolphins 10-4 versus the line in the last 14 games. Talks about Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fitzmagic covering at the end. So to your point, and what I said to do is they just, they find a way to backdoor cover these games. But think jacksonville is gonna score a lot of points i think jacksonville you're buying as high as you possibly could on them they didn't get annihilated by the titans and they beat the colts in that very fishy game that we both spotted in week one yeah miami's hung in there with maybe two of the what four or five best teams in the AFC with New England and Buffalo.

Yeah, yeah. They were in both of those games. I don't want to bet against Fitzpatrick. This was a tough sell for me. All right, we'll pass on it for now because I think we can get to more games. But I really do like Jacksonville minus three. If you're looking for some action Thursday night, do that. But also some other action.

Gardner Minshew, I have it right here. Over 265.5 yards, of course. Look, go to your favorite book the number might change as we go but i i just laid out why with what number two in the red zone number one on third down miami's defense sucks if you're looking for some action on this game i think gardener minchu over whatever total it's going to be i don't every book's different obviously but i have two i have 265.5 feels like a good a good way to go here. Oh, I like the dolphins money line. So we're on different sides on this one. The next game, I'm curious where you are here.

This is Houston at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a four point home favorite. I have a feeling we're both going to be talking about some betting principles here. That's my guess. Well, I, I want to stay away from this game. That's my guess. Well, I want to stay away from this game. But I would say I like Pittsburgh here to win this. I just think they're a much better football team.

But last week scared the heck out of me. They just played down to so many teams. Houston, they're not going to play down for. And so I wonder if this is a situation where they're really good up for this game this game open at six now down to four so a lot of money coming in on houston um but there are some trends to look at here matt teams that are oh they're oh and two straight up and oh and two against the spread entering week three win against the spread 90 60 percent of the time since 2003 and even more recently it's even better number for those teams and so houston oh and two failed to cover two games um and i wonder how much that plays into this but i i would lean i would lean uh pittsburgh

but i don't feel great about it so you're right about the trend that was definitely what i was going to reference here i mean oh i have a better trend but i have a better time i found it by the way okay so we'll just that was that was from 2003 thank you fine folks at action network they go way back but i'll even give you a trend from just the last four years teams started 0-2 against the spread or 22-7 against the spread in week three so the play here then would be Houston um but the problem so the problem here obviously is it's Houston they definitely aren't the same team um but the thing is Pittsburgh has barely beaten through two games Jeff Driscoll and Danny Dimes. Like, we get that their defense is obviously very good, but Jeff Driscoll moved the ball on them last week.

I get that. That was a surprise. They didn't have the film on him, whatever. That guy was the most automatic fade in the entire league last year. Houston, each time they've gone 0-2 under Bill O'Brien, they've made the playoffs that year. So they have a little habit of turning things around here this is a pros joes game like what happened was it's open at six everybody saw that trend knew that trend bet it down to four and now the public is just gonna hammer pittsburgh all week my big concern here

is this did open at six we're not getting a good number. Houston would be my play. The four is better than three, but I don't think that this is one I would want to die on. No, I'm with you here. I think there's too many variables, but I will say Pittsburgh again, typically plays up for these games and down for Danny Dimes and Jeff Driscoll.

So the terrible flaw of Mike Tallman teams. So I do wonder if that's easier, but we'll start away from this. I think we have other games that we like better yeah i think so so uh this might be one of them it's tennessee at minnesota minnesota is a two and a half point home dog how disrespectful well they're not very good right now they're not very good right now i mean that's why the disrespect is is here but this is this is a classic it's a classic game for a home dog getting points man like i think out of out of principle this feels like a game that we have to put in like i don't feel great about it but there's

a ton of money on tennessee right now 99 of the money is on Tennessee after the Vikings have a horrendous start to the season. I just told you guys the issues that, that, that, you know, with against the spread in week three. So it's good for us with the Vikings,

you know, their 30th and total defense, their last in passing, their, their tie for 29th on third down. They're atrocious. And it, you know, offensivelyly not much better Tennessee really

good on offense not really good they're they're they're they're getting by okay on offense but they're playing decent defense but I I just back against the wall veteran team has to win the game at home no no no no crowd noise obviously but i like vikings here plus two and a half i do too this is one of those that you just you hold your nose um this reminds me a little bit of last week with the chiefs which we stepped right into where 99 of the money ended up being on the chiefs and the home uh the home dog ended up covering look if you throw out that indianapolis game the vikings came out of the gate looking a little bit weak on defense and played green bay close and everyone thinks green

bay's you know the cream of the crop so i'm fine i i'd like this one a lot yeah we'll we'll put this in here again this is a hold your nose and bet game but this this is i know this sounds silly because you come to us you know just we talk about gambling and I don't think neither of us would say we're sharps, but this is a 1000% sharp play. Like this is a bet that the sharp money is going on this bet. And again, we'll ride it. Minnesota plus two and a half. Yeah.

Also Indianapolis last week who shut off Minnesota's offense. Indianapolis is a top five rush defense so far this season. Tennessee does not have that. And they've gotten in these two weird games where you know they they kind of got lucky in each um yeah they missed the kicks like yeah there's they just don't feel like everyone's sort of eager to put them in in the uh good teams category i don't know if we've seen it yet yep all right so we've got one minnesota uh next one we've got uh chicago at atlanta uh this is the

standard three i'm staying the f away from this what the hell is this slide there's nothing nothing here i want to i don't even want to talk about this game i'm just this is this is a this is you're only betting this game if you're if you're crazy if you're a falcons fan if you're a bears fan just betting because you're just happy you're two and oh but this But this has Falcons written all over it, but I don't trust them. So I'm not touching this game. This feels like they know they're getting no bets on the Bears, right? They were just like, give the Bears some points. But this is a mess, man.

I mean, both of these teams, I don't really know what to make of. I do think Atlanta's probably the play, but oof. Let's just pass on that um all right next one the banged up san francisco 49ers are laying four uh at the giants obviously where they played last week and it was a bit of a horror show even though they won you know matt here we go plus four lay it on me plus four just wash over me with this danny dimes that we're gonna have to you know you know we have to play it you know we have to i'm just gonna put it in the in the we have to play it so here's here's just there's many reasons for this i think

obviously the giants uh they covered last week at the very end which was good right they almost cover against the steelers as well in week one they just do enough to cover let's move with the niners being psychologically a little bit off this week. Everyone's hurt, right? Bosa's hurt, out for the season. Solomon Thomas, defensive lineman, out this week. He got hurt last week as well. Jimmy Garoppolo, probably not playing this week.

Kittle, probably not playing this week. They're thinking about that MetLife turf they've been complaining about the entire week. I do not know if that's a thing or not. I haven't done enough research on the MetLife turf. But they're thinking about all that stuff. They've been on the road all week. They're staying in West Virginia. And the Giants just need a dang win.

I mean, like, I just think at some point they need a win. Saquon Barkley, I feel like the pressure of having him be the guy is not dissipated, right? I feel like they force the Saquon Barkley issue because they drafted him. Now the offense, in my opinion, would be more free-flowing, Matt. You don't have to force Saquon Barkley on everybody. And maybe you let Danny Dimes be your offense more than you let Saquon be your offense. The Niners' pass rush, they entered the year, well, they ended the Super Bowl with DeForest Buckner, right?

Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, and Eric Armstead. All they have left is Armstead, right? Dee Ford is also probably not going to play this week as well. So I get a poor defensive line, no Kittle, no Garoppolo, like no motivation to play Carr in this game. They don't like the turf. Like I just feel like there's no reasons to – I can't give you positive reasons to bet the Giants.

I can give you a reason not to bet the 49ers. Right. But I think your points are all valid. The first thing that I find a little bit curious is they're staying on the East Coast. They're staying close by. They're in West Virginia. I live, I'm in New York City.

That's like a 15-hour drive. Like, that's not close. I don't understand what they accomplished. There's plenty of places in the New York City area. Part of it is that the hotel there, it's a famous hotel, Greenbrier, right? They're football ready. Like, they hosted the Saints all the time in training camp. Like, they're ready to just have football teams show up.

That's why people stay there. Sure. Fair enough. Having said all that, the 49ers, first of all, this is one to watch because if Nick Mullins ends up playing instead of Jimmy Garoppolo, this is like lock of the century, I would think. But you're right. San Francisco has three home games after this. They just want to get this game over with and get out of there. And you're right. Look, the Giants have been frisky, man. Like they've been fun to bet on. They've been fun to watch. They're in every game until the end. And look, they don't have Saquon Barkley, but Barkley contributed nothing to them this season. I think he ended with like, what, under 15 rushing yards. And they have the same record with or without him, by the way.

Like they're not any better or worse when he's not there. And so, again, I think this, in my opinion, it allows you not just force feed saquon barkley yeah i wonder if that's gonna be true the panthers too uh we'll get to them eventually um okay so we're we've got the giants there we've got the giants and the vikings as home dogs so far no one's gonna go ahead that's how this works man maybe we're gonna level our ship here no this is no we are making the right picks like we've been doing this no we definitely are okay go ahead but we definitely are but i want to feel kind of good about any of them from a like intellectual standpoint or maybe

an emotional standpoint i feel like the niners i made the case the niners are it's a psychological pick right they're just completely beat to shit. Yeah. It's just, we have to bet on Danny Dimes, but it's fine. I'm really curious if you like this, Jeff, because this is the Las Vegas Raiders coming off a huge win. Six and a half point road underdogs at New England. What are your thoughts here? I don't want the six and a half, but I like New England here.

thoughts here i don't want the six and a half but i like new england here um i feel like they the raiders are kind of in for a rude awakening going to new england now off a very big win on my night of football uh new england's going to be pissed obviously they lost that game against seattle i don't terribly like this game but i do really lean new england here with that defense here's something about derrick carr who's playing pretty well right now. He's averaging 6.2 air yards per attempt, which is very low, right? Fourth lowest in the NFL. We've been knocking Drew Brees for this for a while, but he only averages, not only averages,

but averages more. 17.7 air yards per attempt when targeting rookie Henry Rucks. That makes that number basically 6.2, because otherwise it's at 4.6. Everyone else is targeting me. 4.6 air yards. The Patriots will just take Rucks away from him and make him throw underneath and make

life tough for him. The one concern I have about betting the Patriots, though, is that I don't think they can stop the run very well. We saw that with Baltimore last season. Just ran right over them. The Raiders can run the football. So I lean New England here, but I don't feel comfortable putting this in here. Let me give you two stats. Let me see if i can change your mind the raiders two and eight in their last

10 against the spread and straight up at 1 p.m on an early game on the east coast coming off of a short week a huge win opening up their stadium we know that they're way worse on the road under gruden great situational spot for new england since 2003 this is stat number two new england 42 and 18 against the spread after a loss 70 of the time they're covering that's by far the best rate in the nfl they're not going to lose this game they're not losing two games in a row they're not losing to the raiders they're a damn good team seattle got them last week the raiders i think this is the ultimate when are they ever going to be more highly valued than right here I like New England a lot here you know what I really wanted to bet New England

and I'm glad you convinced me to do so I'll put New England in the mix I kind of wanted to bet them this week I don't really like six and a half but I really think that this is emotional letdown for the Raiders here. And your point about not losing two games in a row, they have to be salty, right? They allowed five touchdown passes the other day. That's more than they allowed all of last season. Any wide receiver. And Cam Newton was close to winning that game.

He played really, really well, exceeded expectations. And I'm not sure the Raiders' defense is any good. So I'm good with putting New Englandland here let's do it buddy let's do it i'm a little worried about darren waller murdering this defense but other than that i feel pretty okay he was incredible on monday night um next up uh this man this is one of the strangest games this week. Cincinnati plus five at Philadelphia. What? Talk to me. Let's not talk about this game.

Next game. I don't even want, there's nothing to talk about here. This is the grossest game of the weekend. Because, look, the Bengals have nothing to play for, right? They play for pride, right? And Joey Burrow is doing a great job of playing for pride. He's doing a fantastic, he laid back to recover last week against the bangles um i mean the browns i should say i don't the eagles i just dude they're a freaking mess they're 32nd in offensive dvoa

32nd that's i mean i mean i mean granted that was after getting sacked i mean the play here is cincinnati who has three percent of money on them but we're not playing this we're not playing this game too sharp the play here is the eagles who are just to remind the listeners of that stat that you mentioned at the top of the show 61 of the time teams that don't cover or win in their first two weeks they're hitting in week three 61 of the time philly look this was six this was six i'm just gonna make the case it was six everywhere and this super contest line at five and a half is the best line i've seen yet so you are getting the best of the number for now look joe burrow has kept it close in two games their weak point on cincinnati right it's the offensive line and the defense carson wentz is

going to probably have a good game against this defense and that offensive that that bangles offensive line is going to get massacred by philly that's the strength of their unit is that defense team's defensive line so i see this line philly if you're i see this line by the way at four and a half now some places wow so um big movement i i just oh let's stay away from this for now let's pass um okay next up uh i like in a rundown it says football team plus seven at the Browns. So my Washington football team plus seven at Cleveland. Jeff, what do you think? I mean, I think the play here is the points with Washington,

but I don't want no part of this game whatsoever. I think Washington's defensive line and defense, still number one in DVOA, by the way, this season. Number one, DVOA, the Washington football team. I just, I don't feel, I don't have a great feel for this game. Washington 11 sacks in two games. I think Baker Mayfield is going to get his ass kicked in this, but I still don't want to bet Washington.

I don't, I don't either. I don't trust him. That's a pass. I do like the seven though. Okay, next game here, Jeff. Maybe the marquee game of the week that's not in primetime. So this is the Rams visiting the Bills. The Bills, two and a half point favorites

what do you think so you guys know i was down on the ramp start the season they have convinced me otherwise they have uh there's two things that they've done that i was just questioning one was just defensive playmakers outside of donald ramsay they're doing enough on defense it's not it's not perfect but they're doing enough on defense right they're not perfect, but they're doing enough on defense, right? They're 14th right now in DVOA after two weeks. And yes, they played a really bad Eagles team. I get that. But the Cowboys are talented offensively.

They just put up 40 points against the Falcons. But secondly, and more importantly, I question whether Sean McVay was going to change his style of offense to fit his offensive line. Last year, they ran out of that zone, and their offensive line couldn't block it. They didn't change. This year, he's changed.

He changes his run scheme, which is allowing them to get more yards or offensive lines playing well, and put in Jared Goff in situations where he can play action pass, where Jared Goff is fabulous against play action pass. But here's a couple numbers that really excite me about the Rams here,

and it has to do with coaching, with coaching. They've covered seven straight, seven straight in the early kickoff Eastern time zone. So 1 p.m. Eastern, that's 10 a.m. out West. They've won and covered seven straight of those games. They're 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 road games as well. So very well-coached team. You have Buffalo right now that probably is going to be no

higher right i mean like they're sky and high right josh allen afc player of the week they just beat miami they beat the jets miami and the jets really like those are two terrible football teams the rams played i know the eagles aren't very good but they're playing a cowboys team that's going to win the nfc east maybe by default. But I just, I like the Rams here. They're playing really good football. You know, Jeff, I was kind of off this one and you've talked me into it. Sean McVay, seven and one, both against the spread and straight up as the coach of the Rams in September. Buffalo, look, you said it, the strength of schedule has been an issue.

The Rams have been pretty well tested so far and have come come out come out looking good i'll take it i mean the fact that it's two and a half here i think that people uh you know or vegas is still kind of leaning on the preseason respect for the bills and maybe the disrespect for the rams but enough money probably came in on the three that they're hedging a little bit yeah i like it in the overall dvoa they're five and six so it's a very even matchup la third and offense seventh um third uh offense 14th i say in defensive dvoa buffalo 7 and 12 so they're very closely matched teams but i get that i get a better quarterback i think in in golf so i'll go with uh the rams yeah this is a tough one with betting the short home dogs where we're sort of going against that principle here,

but let's go, let's go Sean McVay in September. We'll put this in there. There's still a couple others that I, that they might fancy. Oh, okay. All right.

Well, I'd like to know what you fancy, Jeffrey. Now let's move on to our next thing. Let's, uh, this is probably not one of the ones you fancy. This is the,

uh, New York jets, Gabe Goodwin's New York jets at the colts colts lay in 11 points do we even need to discuss this no just move along i mean move on the colts probably win this game by 25 but i'm not touching this yeah i don't trust phil rivers to be more than no i do not like a three-point favorite even over the jets i that's going to be everyone's survivor pick this week including mine and it will murder me like even if i win i know i will be murdered personally by it even just the fact

that i will have to know that this game is on will be enough to murder me um the cults could just win uh next up is carolina uh plus six and a half at the Los Angeles Chargers. Man, no Christian McCaffrey. Maybe Justin Herbert. Hey, man, congrats on Justin Herbert. I haven't had the chance to give you a proper congratulations yet. He looked great. He played well the other day.

Oh, this one's tough. Before we even jump in here, can I ask you about this Tyrod Taylor story? Yes. What? So can you explain? I don't mean to put you on the spot here, but basically what happened was he was injured by the training staff before the game, right? Yeah.

So he went to get an injection for a rib injury and they basically went too deep and punctured his lung. So he got a collapsed lung and that's why he didn't play this weekend. And so I think that Anthony Lynn was being so forceful with his basically rebuttal, whatever you want to say, rebuff of Justin Herbert from this weekend. He was pretty harsh on him on Monday. And I think he did that because he hit, they kind of have to protect themselves against some sort of suit of some sort,

some lawsuit or something because of what happened to Tyron Taylor. I mean, have you ever heard of anything like this ever? I know I have not. So I'm, I'm yeah, man, I,

I, I feel bad for Tyron, right? He lost his job in Cleveland to a concussion.cussion he's gonna eventually lose his job here to this he might come back and play at some point this year just to say he played but herbert's gonna herbert look good he's gonna he's gonna take over that job yeah he did he looked really good um it's a terrible situation for taylor i feel really bad for him yeah uh moving on to this. I mean, do you have a thought? I mean, I think the play here is Carolina plus the six and a half, but I just don't think they're a very good football team right now. And I don't know what

I'm getting with Herbert in a week too. I just, I just, I don't feel great about this. Another question for you is, so people have argued that this Herbert success last week against the chiefs was because they didn't know this was going to come and they had no tape on him so like what a disadvantage right no that's not that no that's not a thing think about this so Justin Herbert so there's when you practice you have the ones right like you have your one unit and let's say you get 30 reps in a team practice. 29 of those are with the starting quarterback. Maybe one, the backup, you just throw them in there, right?

The backup does scout team all week. So Justin Herbert did scout team all week. Yeah, he knows the game plan. He's part of the meetings, part of the walkthroughs. But Tyrod Taylor took all the reps during the week. And then you find out two minutes before the game, hey, Justin, you're starting today, buddy. So he has a game plan designed for Tyrod Taylor that he is running.

He has not practiced all week. And he played really well against an extremely good Chiefs defense. And look, there were mistakes, yes. He overthrew Keenality, a terrible interception. That's all true. But I think he acquitted himself very well in this game. And I think he will play decently well this week. but I just don't have a feel for the six and a

half. And it just, I don't have a great feel for this one. Yeah. Possible trap game for the Chargers. They, uh, they go on the road for Tampa and new Orleans next. This is after a tough loss. No McCaffrey. I mean, it could be the same thing as Barkley where they don't have to force to them, but I agree. This is just a stay away. I don don't know I don't have a good lean on this one yeah uh so we'll stay away yeah all right stay away there uh man I I'm excited to talk about this one this is Dallas plus five at Seattle two very like two teams everybody's thinking about this week I'm sure everyone will have an opinion on this game there'll be a lot of bets what where do you lean in all right so who has the better

offensive line in this game well it depends who's playing for it depends i believe teron smith is playing this week so then the cowboys okay who has better skill position players definitely dallas who has the better pass rush definitely dallas all right so um who who should we who should we take with getting five points in this game seattle's like no i actually do think dallas might be the player but that's an interesting way to frame it right like there's obviously it's it's very tough to bet this game because tyron smith is not playing and maybe and maybe we have to do a thing where we say hey we'll take dallas but if it doesn't play we're just gonna bet another we're gonna put the sixth game into this slot which is silly but like we you know we just last week where we were like mf'ing each other because we we, you know, we just last week where we were like MFing each other because we didn't know that we took Dallas last week.

We didn't know the time. So what, you know, wasn't playing right. We record this Wednesday night. So injury means injury reports on Wednesday don't mean anything come Sunday. A lot of veterans take off practice Tuesday and Wednesday. So I, I, I like Dallas here. And I just – I know you – this screams – by the way, this screams like backdoor cover in my opinion.

This screams like we saw last week where Seattle's up 10. Dallas just – Seattle hasn't stopped anyone. They haven't stopped anyone all season. Atlanta put up a ton of yards on them and scored a bunch of points. Yes, it was late in the game. I get it. But Cam Noon drove the food up and down on them the entire game. And I just think that you get, like I mentioned,

you get the better talented team in Dallas getting five points. And the home field advantage doesn't matter here, right? It doesn't matter. There's no noise in seattle so um i'm i like the cowboys i'm with you i was uh i was leaning here too um you know seattle's defense is good it's as good as seattle has looked their defense has let teams back into games atlanta scored a ton of the points back in the second half in week one and obviously new england kept it close last week that game was over and it just never ended it just like it just never could end and seattle doesn't put teams away they score a lot of points but

dallas scores a lot of points too i mean this is like squarest take of all time but like the over this one well the over is gonna yes the over is the squarest pick of the week. But, you know, there's a lot of what we would like to see here with a little bit of bets, 28% bets on Dallas, but 90% of the money. So we're seeing a lot of that sharp. Now, we haven't seen reverse line movement, but we're seeing, and we might see some buyback at five. I mean, like I said, it's Wednesday night. This game might close closer to four or three and a half in my opinion.

But I, I, I put them on the list for now. Yeah. We're getting a good number here. All right. I like that one a lot. That was one of the ones I liked coming into this.

Okay. Next up, we have Detroit plus five and a half at everyone's favorite team, the Arizona Cardinals. Weird number. This feels just totally strange to me. I'm curious what you think. Yeah, it's odd. I mean, I think the Lions is probably the play, but how do you trust the Lions right now?

You don't trust them. I mean, Kenny Galladay is back, but I don't trust them. They had two double-digit leads and didn't win any of those games. So I would say this is just to stay away from me. I kind of feel like Arizona is the play here. Detroit's lost 11 straight games, and they have the 31st-ranked defense in DVOA. Kyler Murray is going to wreck this team.

To me, I don't know why this isn't like 8.5 because Arizona is so public but but stupid stafford man like he gets gallaudet back i think it's for a lot of points this is this just feels like a it's a crap number but i don't feel i don't feel do you feel great about it i don't no i don't but arizona would a thousand percent be my player okay so let's move on fair enough good leadership there we needed we needed to get back on track uh all right we've got tampa bay and the bucks our six point road favorites at denver yikes we're not we did this last week and we're not doing it again i i like tampa to cover here but i'm not putting it

in this in this in the five picks how big would that number be for you to take Jeff Driscoll against Tampa Bay? Can you get 14 and a half? I think that would be too low for me. But also, I'm not playing the six. It's the only place where you have a true home field advantage. Is Denver. I mean, this reeks of like... I hate this line.

Doesn't this reek of like a 20 to 14 game? Just write that six number. Just like reeks of like... It's just going to be gross. It's going to be gross. Everyone's going to put them in a tease, by the way. Everyone's going to tease the Patriots down to pick them. The Bucks.

I just, I stay, stay away from this game. I think Tampa's the play, but I just wouldn't know. Yeah. Denver amazing at home as an underdog, 11 and five against the spread in their last two seasons. Okay. Next up the Sunday night game, man, these Sunday night, Monday night games are incredible this week, Jeff.

Green Bay at the Saints. Saints are three-point favorites at home. What do you think? Well, you're getting a great number here because this opened up at six and a half, and the Saints then lost to the Raiders and went all the way to three. The Saints have issues on offense, as we evidenced, very evidenced to see the other day against Oakland. Drew Brees just can't throw the ball down the field very well.

That's like just his, he's 40 years old. And this is what happens when you get, we turned 40. They did something very interesting, by the way. So normally when you play a game, you fly right back. Like you fly back after the game. They stayed in Vegas until Tuesday morning. And then before they left, they had like an emergency team meeting to go over the film. They were so pissed off they lost the Raiders. They went to go watch the film.

Green Bay is playing really good football right now. playing excuse me really good football right now um so i think i think this is i think this is a new orleans play but i i just i mean dude there's so much money on green bay we're seeing oh geez there's so much money on green bay the thing i mean so many bets on green bay not so much money so many bets yeah all the money's back in new orleans now i i think here two things that uh we sort of have to remind ourselves every season the first is there's always a fluky couple games in week two right like everybody gets the sample from week one thinks they know everything then week two comes along everyone goes whoa hold on we got misled in week one but actually week two is the red herring a lot of the times new or Orleans was in a tough spot there that they were going to Vegas. They're opening that stadium.

They're always better at home. The Raiders and Michael Thomas, not playing. Everyone's like, Oh, Drew Brees, man. He's washed. Like he can't throw down the field. Who are their receivers? If Michael Thomas isn't playing Emmanuel Sanders is still got to figure out this offense. If Michael Thomas comes back, then their offense completely changes. And on the other hand, if Devontae Adams is out, the Packers have the same problem that they had last season when they just couldn't get their offense moving without him on the field. Look, Green Bay, they've crushed two bad teams, right? They've played Minnesota, who clearly didn't have it together, and they let them back in that game, and then they beat Detroit.

The Saints are coming off being embarrassed. They're playing at home. They're 8-2 in primetime in the last two years. The Packers in primetime, 3-7-1 against the spread. They're always overvalued. So I'm not surprised there was a huge correction in New Orleans this week. The Packers defense, 26th in DVOA to start the season. If there's ever a spot for New

Orleans to get it together prime time at home against a bad defense yeah I like the Saints I think part of the problem with doing this early in the week is the injuries right so like we don't know if Thomas or Adams are going to play yet and I don't know if I could feel comfortable taking the Saints without knowing if Thomas will play. Is that some of the concern doing this tonight, essentially? For sure. So what we could do is we could agree on it and then change our pick later. I mean, we don't have to submit them today.

But I do think if Thomas plays and Adams doesn't, it's a lock. If they both play, I still like it. All right, I'm going to put this in the maybe, and we can figure out maybe a way to do this if we like this better than any other five we've chosen so far. Sounds good. All right, marquee game of the week and maybe the season. Your Kansas City Chiefs, three and a half point road dogs at Baltimore.

Man, this one's going to be fun. This line, this hook is just stinky. I don't like this hook on this game. Here's the deal. I think the Ravens are a better football team right now. I think that, and like I said all along this year, they've been on a mission from the very beginning. They are absolutely smashing teams right now.

Their offense is flying full speed ahead. They're just bringing Gus Edwards at the end of the game, saying, hey, just run people over for us, right? They're going for a fourth down. They're being aggressive. Lamar Jackson looks way more accurate than he's ever been in his career. Defensively, they're generating a ton of pressure as usual. They're hitting the quarterback.

They're creating turnovers. They're doing everything we expected them to do. Now, the Chiefs obviously come off this mediocre win against the LA Chargers. Their offense has been a little bit off, though, right? It has not been the same offense that we saw the previous couple of seasons. You know, right now they're eighth in DVOA on offense, which is unlike the Chiefs at all. I mean, that's not what they've done the last couple of years. And so something's just not quite right with the Chiefs, in my opinion.

Baltimore, to me, is the play at three and a half. But the problem, Matt, the problem is that Mahomes does not lose in blowouts. Like, he does not lose in blowouts. Throughout his career, he's lost with six or less points. He just doesn't lose. So I'm supposed to believe that the Chiefs are down, let's say, 10 with two minutes left. He's not going to come back and cover for them? That's my problem with this game.

I love Baltimore here, but I also would hate to be on the right side and then Mahomes just scores a touchdown with 50 seconds left and I lose the bet. I think that's right. I don't really have a feel here, honestly. I mean, this is the two best teams in the nfl playing each other anything could happen i think we like other games better but uh i'm curious i'm intrigued that you think the ravens take this one i just think they're better football team right now um and they're playing better football and psychologically this is a huge game for them

right they've have not played well against the Chiefs the last two seasons. And even though the score ended up being close, last year was a blowout really early in the season. If you recall, Lamar had to throw up like two arm punts that were caught down the end zone to get close to that game. So for whatever reason, they played them well. But they're the team standing in front of them to get to their mission, which is obviously to go win a Super Bowl.

And the number one seed is hugely important this year, right? With seven playoff teams, only one team gets a bye. And this is a tiebreaker game. It's a tiebreaker game right now to get a bye. And it's at home now. There's not fans. There may be fans. There's fans sprinkling back in as we go, by the way.

If you look at like October, we're going to see more fans. I'm not sure any fans will be in the stands for this game. But psychologically, there's more at stake for Baltimore than there is for Kansas City. Do you think Kansas City may have viewed last week as a trap game, and maybe they were trying to get up for this one? I don't know, but they just looked asleep for most of the game. But the Chargers defensively have played them really well over the years. I mean, I know Andy Reid ends up covering a lot of those games, but they're like late covers.

And Phillip Rivers throws a pick as they're driving down the field to tie the game or whatever. I don't know. I don't know if they looked ahead. I don't think they looked ahead to Baltimore. I really don't. Maybe they did. But again, I don't know if that matters here, honestly.

But the three and a half is just – if it's just three, I think it would be all over Baltimore. Two and a half, all over Baltimore. But the three and a half is just if it's just three i think it'd be all over baltimore two and a half all over baltimore but the three and a half is i don't like it all right well that's a stay away it sounds like um well look we've it looks like we've got a bunch of good yeses here so we in my opinion we have six we have six yeses. That's what I really got. Minnesota plus two and a half. New York plus four. New England minus six and a half. The Rams plus two and a half. Dallas plus five.

And New Orleans minus three. Yeah. I think that's right. I think we like all of them. We sort of hinted, I think, at Carolina. But that's obviously out. I'm just trying to make sure we didn't miss anything. It's interesting.

And I think we like Tampa too, but we can't bet that. Yeah. We kind of like Houston. But again, we like all of these way better. So the question becomes, where do we get to the five here? Do we say that Dallas and New Orleans have to wait to see injuries? What do we do there? Because I feel like we have we we have till sunday to

submit these like we don't have to submit them wednesday night um i feel like we can wait a little bit and kind of see how injuries play out uh because i i think that like if toronto smith doesn't play i'm out on dallas but you know if michael thomas is not playing i'm probably out on new orleans and then we have to decide if we're going new orleans or go with dallas when it comes to it i think we sit on these six right here i know our podcast wants to pick five and just see how the injuries play out for those two teams is that yeah fair to do you think yeah so let's play out this one calc let's pretend and let's say to ron smith plays and michael thomas plays um then what let's go through that yeah I I think I think it's Dallas I think it is oh man I don't know the Saints in this bounce back spot and going against

Russ like I if that game's tied with two minutes left we're screwed which one oh the Cowboys one yeah yeah I just you know the thing about I mean, the thing with New Orleans, I get the bounce back situation here, but man, I just, I think Green Bay is kind of good. I know Devonta Adams. I mean, that's the thing about, what if Devonta Adams plays or doesn't play? Then I feel better about the Saints, right?

Right. Who would you rather, who would you rather have your heart broken by, Russ or Aaron Rodgers? Oh, geez. Their defense hasn't played terribly well. They're supposed to be good this year. I mean, this feels like a spot where they have to play well, right?

Yeah. They have to play well. We could just take the points and just say Seattle without the home crowd. They've let two teams back in those games. Dallas, maybe Dallas sort of turned it around with that crazy onside kick last week in the win or it's a letdown spot and they get blown out i just yeah i'm looking at some notes here man i just i mean i i think that the the dallas cowboys injury situation would change kind of how we do here but i feel i lean toward dallas a little bit more here um so let's say that let's say it's dallas for now and we can reserve the right to based on

injuries fair and switch it out to the saints fair enough because they have injuries on defense too um because if davante adams doesn't play i i would i would probably actually lean more to new orleans yeah i think i think it's that important yeah i think if if adams doesn't play and thomas doesn't I would probably actually lean more to New Orleans. Yeah. I think it's that important. I think if Adams doesn't play and Thomas doesn't play, I think that would change. I think Adams is the key injury here of all of them. I think so too.

Because we've seen Aaron Rodgers has not been good without Adams. Yeah. So, all right. So, that's what we're going to do, folks. We're going to have – We're going to – It's because our podcast, we do whatever we want. The podcast is free. Like, we're giving you four. We're giving you six. Well, we're going to do, folks. We're going to have, we're going to, it's because our podcast, we do whatever we want. The podcast is free.

Like, we're giving you four. We're giving you six. Well, we're giving you six. And we don't have to submit these, like I said, tonight. So we have time. So Minnesota plus two and a half. We have two, basically, hold your nose games. Minnesota, two and a half.

Giants, minus four. New England in a bounce back spot for them with the Raiders team traveling far east after a big win on a short week. Minus 6.5. Did you see Bill Belichick in his hoodie today with the holes in it? I mean, he's ready to go.

That's all I needed to see. He's been in the lab all night. Rams plus 2.5 at Buffalo. And then we have two picks. We're going to look at the injury reports as we go. Dallas plus 5. New Orleans minus 3. We're going to take those two lines, though.

So if the lines change, those are the two we're taking based on Super Contest. So if the Saints become two and a half point favorite or Dallas gets another point, it doesn't matter. These are lines that we're sticking with. So I feel good about this. Because last week we got screwed with injuries. The Cowboys thing, I would have been off. We touched about it.

We would have been off that if we knew that Tyron Smith was not playing. Yeah, that's right. We've evolved. We've grown. We've grown off that if we knew that Tyron Smith was not playing. Yeah, that's right. We've evolved. We've grown. We've grown on this. So, Matt, I feel much better about these than I did the ones last week. I do, too. I feel like we sort of, like, we're in sync this week or last week.

I thought we were kind of both freelancing, and now we're back. This week, we got back to our roots this week, though, with a lot of these picks. Like, you have to, in the long run run you will win more taking the vikings and giants in these situations and you will taking uh you know big favorites it just it just it's the way it tends to work yep i still think there are a few others that are are worth a few shots at like i still think philly i don't think philly and washington could be a fun uh a fun parlay that could be a good one a little money line parlay no just just spread i think that could be a fun one there's a couple i really do like this week

but these are the right five yeah i'm good for these right now all right matt really appreciate it thank you guys for listening for reviewing for everything else that you guys do. I see the reviews. I see the comments. Six and four. We're going to improve on that this week. I feel like good winning week. All you got to do is go three for two every week.

You go three and two every week. That's it. You make a ton of money, folks. So thank you for joining us. Have a great weekend. And maybe we'll get back with you later in the week with what our actual pick will be for that final game as well. And I'll put something out a little closer to Monday with the the ravens and chiefs just kind of talk more about that

game so fascinating to see how that one goes all right guys have a great week of football talk to you guys later