Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - 6 Best NFL Bets: Wild Card Round

Episode Date: January 7, 2021

Geoff and Matt celebrate finishing the Super Contest with over .500, plus they preview each wild card round game and give you their favorite bets of the week. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's Thursday January 7th I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford this is Jeff Schwartz to smart on you there's a lot going on in our country right now please everyone stay safe not our expertise we're not going to spend time discussing it but we will want to wish everyone their safety and some sanity and we'll talk about what we do here which is making you smarter about football and especially football gambling as we have the nfl playoffs this weekend and matt we got above 500 this week we went four and one a week 17 i think we had six straight winning weeks and we did it we did it we did it we did it and it came down to the last game of the season you know like that's the best part it

came down to the last game of the season and it came down to a washington football team game where the other team was trying to tank for us and we barely did it but we did it if you trailed us this year you made money officially i mean depending on your vig uh but i mean depending on your juice but we were 41 40 and. I gave the wrong number out last weekend. I said we were 34-37. I actually skipped a week. We were 37-39, went 4-1. So 41-40-4.

And along the way, we give you some props, too, that we've liked. So here's what we're going to do this weekend. Six playoff games. There are no Westgate lines. There are no Super Contest lines. We'll go with the consensus lines that are Thursday morning, as we record this Thursday morning, not on Wednesday night. And we will give you a side.

So we'll give you which team we'd like to cover the spread for every game. But because these are special games, there's more obviously emphasis on them. I have a lot of other bets I like within each game as well. So does Matt. So we'll give you just a general overview of every game. We'll give you a side we like, and then also we'll give you another bet we like. And we'll do that throughout the show.

So we have six games, and let's start with the first game of the weekend, Matt. Yeah, let's do it. At the end, we'll sort of reveal our collective favorites. First game is maybe the best game. The Colts plus six and a half at Buffalo. Everyone's darling. What do you like here?

So I like Colts plus six and a half, but the bet that I gave for my Fox sports article, which should be up fairly soon. If you listen to this, if you want to read, if you want to visualize this is if we're looking for one money line, favorite, excuse me,

one money line underdog this weekend, I think it's the Colts. And again, I don't think they're going to beat the Bills, but if you're looking for the value of an underdog here, they fit the profile for this, right? They rush the football very well, which is something that Buffalo has struggled to do the entire season. And remember, Buffalo has played,

their defense has been better down the stretch, Matt, but they've played really bad offenses. They've only played one offense that's been better than 17th in DVOA, and that was Seattle week nine. They played all these bum offenses the back half of the season. The Colts, well, we don't believe in Phillip Rivers.

They can run the football. They're an efficient offense. They're playing better down the stretch. Jonathan Taylor, since week 11, 123 yards per game, 6.2 yards per attempt. Over the last eight weeks of the season, Colts offense has 30 points per game and almost 400 yards on offense as well, both in the top six in the NFL. So offensively, they're good. Now, can they stop the Bills offense, right?

We know the Bills offense is fabulous right now. Josh Allen's on fire. There's a couple things I think they can do, okay? Again, I'm making the Colts for the Colts to cover this game and win the game. I do think Buffalo still wins. But again, there's a little bit of value sprinkled on the money line here for the Colts. The Colts are the 11th highest pressure percentage, right? But they only pressure their 31st in the NFL in pressure rate.

Like, they don't actually send a lot of guys. They get home with four. Josh Allen, not as good when you rush four or less passers. When you blitz him, he's great, right? He finds ways to get the ball down the field. So I just think that these components together, Matt, again, I like the Colts to cover. I think you could sprinkle some on the money line. I still think Bills win the game. What do you say? That's, I think, again, I like the Colts to cover. I think you could sprinkle some of the money line. I still think Bills win the game.

What do you say? That's, I think, exactly where I am. I was looking back to last season's wildcard weekends. And this season, who knows? There's not a template for this season. Last year, three of the four games that were played were upsets. And the only result that held by seeding was Houston barely beating Buffalo. But the other three games were upsets and the only result that held uh by seeding was houston barely beating buffalo but the other three games were upsets two sixes one and a five beat a four in seattle and

philly so there's always sort of like a topsy-turvy result it feels like in this weekend this is the one that i i felt a little bit just worried about um even though i think buffalo could win the super bowl you know that i don't think that's like a big stretch um i would probably wait for indy plus seven if i was picking a side um i did hit one thing and that's the first half over in this game interesting um the these two teams are second and fourth in the highest first half point totals this season they averaged a collective 33 a game uh last night that was at 24 and a half at my book um so i took the over there the over is five and oh and colts games against teams with winning records this season and buffalo at home the overs hit 10 out of 16 times it also pushed

once um so i think there will probably be a lot of points here even though there's a perception indy's got this great defense um but yeah i think buffalo's gonna have a tough time uh buffalo's really hot they've covered i think eight straight yeah uh 26 12 and 2 against the spread it under josh allen which is incredible especially given how shaky he was a few years ago um yeah i i look the bills the indy has struggled this year against power running teams. We've always had trouble with Indy on this show trying to figure them out. They've had trouble against Derrick Henry, James Robinson, Baltimore with all their million running backs.

And then Pittsburgh, this sort of outlier physical team, they beat the Packers. They can beat teams where they spread the ball around on offense and explode. So I think Colts plus seven is probably the play I would want to make here, along with some overs. I just don't know if it even gets to seven. Like there's so much money on Buffalo and the line is not budged at all. Like I think that this is going to go anywhere to go to six by kickoff. Which is crazy because, yeah, everyone's picking Buffalo.

So we'll – all right. So we're, you know, again, we can't give you probably consensus five. We can just listen to our confidence is how we feel about these picks as we go through. We'll tell you at our end kind of the best ones that we like. All right. Let's get to the second game on Saturday, which, God, has the potential to be a complete stink fest of the weekend. It sure does. That's the Rams at the Seahawks. Right now, the line is Seattle by three and a half.

So this line has come down. I believe it was a little bit higher earlier in the week. And it's interesting because it's come down without the Rams. It was at five without the Rams knowing who's playing quarterback this weekend, right? Is Jared Goff going to play? How well will he play if he does play in this game? To me, this screams under 42 or under 42.5. You have two defenses playing very well right now.

The Seattle defense is allowing 16 points per game since Week 10, the best number in the NFL. That includes a game against the Rams. Remember, the Rams went to Seattle a couple weekends ago. The last seven games Jared Goff has started, they're only averaging 23 points a game. They're not moving the ball that well on offense. And that could be now with Whitworth, the left tackle, coming back.

Maybe that's more. But I think where the over, I mean the under really to me, plays is the Rams' defense, guys. The Rams' defense is the best in the NFL at defending the deep pass. First completion percentage, touchdown interception ratio, passer rating, and they have Aaron Donald, right? So like their defense, pass defense, fabulous. They allow about 200 yards a game passing the ball.

And Russell Wilson, for whatever reason, Matt, just kind of stopped throwing the ball deep. If you look at his first eight games, he was averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. Now he's only averaging 6.4 yards per attempt. He also dropped over 100 yards per game passing the last eight weeks of the season. They're just a different offense right now. To me, this feels a very grind-em-out game.

I like the under here, which means I probably lean Rams plus three and a half, even though the value is not terribly there. I think you have to stay away from this until we know if golf is playing or not but the under you can still play anyways yeah i mean if golf plays this line probably sticks and like i i am i crazy i love seattle here um i i kind of like bought the half point and took them at minus 120 at minus three. Cause I think like we're giving the Rams a lot of credit for beating Kyler Murray's backup last week.

Like let's see if they can handle playoff Russell Wilson. The Seahawks have been great at home. Jamal Adams is going to be playing, which means, you know, good things for that defense. These two teams. I mean,

we, I think when, when these two teams played last, we liked the rams uh but seattle crushed them and that was back when you know everybody was was healthy yeah um i so look the under makes sense for all the reasons you laid out 43 seems like a low or somewhere around there feels like a low number for any game with russell wilson um these two teams combined for uh they both hit the under a lot they're 11 and 21 to the

over so 21 and 11 to the under um but i'd probably pass on this the the read i would i would say here i kind of like seattle to win the nfc at plus 625 because i do think you know especially if walford's playing then they should win this game and then yeah you know who knows what the deal is with the Saints after Kamara's COVID thing and Michael Thomas and Green Bay. They're at Aaron Rodgers' sprained ankle, God forbid, from falling apart. So that would probably be my read here, that if they win this game, that number is going to drop quite a bit.

I like Seattle for – I like Seattle. If golf for, um, you know, I like Seattle. Uh, if golf doesn't play, obviously they should cover here, but even if he does though, right? Like what's, I mean, Jared, I just, I just don't trust Seattle right now. And if you look at the game that they lost a couple weekends ago, golf through that terrible red zone interception, like awful red zone interception and Seattle didn't play well. They kind of finished at the end. I think it was a fourth down play that Wilson converted at the end to go up, I think, 23-9 in that game.

The Super Bowl odds is interesting because they're the team in the NFC, I think, that can beat the Packers. As much as I think the Seahawks offense has kind of you know slowed down the defense is playing better but I trust Russell Wilson on the road in Lambeau and they tend to play bigger and bigger games as Seattle but they've always been that way so that's a good you know that's a good value heading into the uh the the post is all right let's get to game number three of the weekend yeah i i will say one last thing on that it's like there's the chances of a team other than green bay tampa like the saints there seattle would be next so to get them yeah with tampa the problem is tampa has has uh has a long road man i mean they tampa has

to has to go on the road and beat Washington, which we'll talk about in just a second. They'd have to then go beat Green Bay, presumably, and then go either beat New Orleans or Seattle.

Like that, that's a, it's a long road to do. There's been no team who has done that ever. Three road games ever. Giants in 07

maybe did it with three road games. I think even Baltimore in 2012 had a home game at least. I think maybe the Giants in 2007 were the one team that that was able to do three road games maybe pittsburgh one year too for i can't remember maybe we'll look it up as we're talking um all right next up is uh okay tampa uh right now that is minus eight tampa is a road favorite at uh at washington

so that's a lot of points here's what i like and you are washington football team fan i am uh you know this team very well um but how do you how do you feel how do you feel about getting the playoffs matt i mean you guys talked about this already so i you know we don't need to repeat anything but i feel great i feel great like their over under was five. They won the division. Like granted, they only got to seven and it was a cluster F of a division, but they got there. And, you know, the Eagles, the Eagles tried to lay down in that game. Washington maybe also like couldn't couldn't do better than lay down, but they won the division and like give them some credit. Like their coach had cancer this year.

Like they were not supposed to compete this year and they did yeah so i'm really proud of them and even if they get massacred in this game like good for them i mean they played four quarterbacks this year made the playoffs yeah it's pretty incredible um all right so here's what i like in this game i like the first half under 22 and a half that's the number i got um for on fox uh for fox bet which i know not everyone has but that's the number that got um for on fox uh for fox bet which i know not everyone has but that's the number that i got from my article that i wrote them a lot of this sometimes it's going off what i wrote the night before um you know this washington football team does not score in the first half of games they physically like they physically cannot um the entire season they've

scored on average 8.4 points per for the first half and you think okay well maybe when Alex Smith plays they're better no no 8.5 points in the first half this year in the first half of games they've scored 14 with Alex Smith 14 13 3 3 17 that included I believe that was the Cowboys game included defensive touchdown or defensive defensive short field, I believe, right? And then three and seven. They don't score in the first half, guys. They do not. And partly because Alex Smith, we saw last weekend, man, check down Charlie, right? Like, he just starts the game out, check down, check down, check down.

And then when the game gets going in the second half, when he has to throw the ball downfield, he is forced to throw the ball downfield and he can't. Plus, look, the guy is gutting it out but he cannot move he cannot move yep okay so i don't think that washington was scored very much what about tampa tampa's offense is playing a lot better yes but this is the first great defense they played in a long time and this front seven that washington has is elite they are elite front seven and when you play a team like this after you haven't played someone that's physical in a while it does take a little bit of time to kind of get the ball rolling a little bit right like it takes a little bit of time to to to figure it out feel it out

kind of match your physicality and also here Washington knows at least offensively that the only way they win this game is on defense forcing turnovers harassing Tom Brady, getting after the rushing attack. So I think to me, if you're taking a side here, I think it is probably Tampa. But I like the first half under 22 and a half. I know you have a bet that's not the game side, but another play you like here. Yeah, it's another first half play.

I took Tampa first half minus five for all those reasons. Last week was Washington scored their first opening drive touchdown of the entire season. They were the last team to do it, and it took until the last game. So that's one I really like taking Tampa to cover the first half. to cover the first half. The other thing I would maybe consider is betting a Washington either money line or to cover if the live line just really goes crazy. I also think Washington is a good tease candidate

if you can bump them up to me to like 14 and a half, depending if you've got that eight and a half somewhere. There's a lot of tease candidate games, but I do, you know, as a Washington fan, I was picturing like, well, how could this,

how could an upset even happen here? And this is just sort of like what I was thinking about. First of all, Tampa hasn't played a game that wasn't either in a dome or in their building in sunny Florida since mid November. So now all of a sudden they have to go to 28 degree weather in Washington this Saturday at night against a really tough pass rush.

Like it could be one of those games where they come out kind of slow and Washington gets a little momentum and Smith looks a little bit better. And you're like, oh, wait a second. You know, it's not like this game is just going to be a massacre like washington is just too proud for that um yeah two other things to consider 70 plus percent of the money is on tampa right now i know and the line actually

moved favorably for them last night so i think the books are willing to take on Tampa liability here, which is interesting. And the other thing to consider is we have to, Tampa looked, has looked great in the last two weeks. They played Detroit and Atlanta. Washington looked terrible last week. They played the Eagles who are trying to take everyone on earth. Watch that game. And Washington covers every single week.

So you have to imagine they're going to keep this one competitive. Yeah. And Washington also last, last week, that was a playoff game for them. And they have a ton of, they had a quarterback who couldn't walk. And they have a bunch of rookies in big spots. Rookies are second year guys who this was their biggest game of their career. So that's behind them. I think that they're going to show up in this one and everyone will be like, well, what the hell? Where were they last week?

Having said all that, I i think tampa wins but i do like washington potentially to to cover this especially if you can bet it live here's another good another good play too i think there's so many different options in this game um the over hit in the second half of 11 of 16 washington football games wow because of the slow start, right? So that's a way to maybe get some value at some point in this game. And I feel like this is a weekend where live betting will be important because just like week 17,

I thought it was important too. So yeah, so we have the first half under. I like, you like Tampa in the first half. Kind of the same thought process there as well. All right, those are the Saturday games. Let's get to Sunday games. And look, this is, the only side I truly like this weekend

is in this first game and so I'm excited to talk about it. Me too. That's Baltimore currently laying three and a half at Tennessee. So I would buy this down to three and take Baltimore if you have the option to do so,

if you're so inclined to do so. This is one of those things, we talk about this throughout the year, Matt, where when the playoff seating was announced, what do you think this line was going to be? I'm not sure. I thought it would be a better pick-em, right? Yeah.

I had a Tennessee by one, actually. Okay, so Tennessee by one. So Vegas is telling all of us schmoes that they think Baltimore is a much better football team, right? Because if this game was in Tennessee, I mean, Baltimore, they'd be favored by six, by six. And so you have to dig a little deeper to find out why that is. And I think it's very simple.

Tennessee's defense is garbage, hot garbage. They're last in the NFL in third down. They got no pressure on the quarterback. They cannot stop the run. And guess what Baltimore does well? They're fourth in the NFL in third downs. They run the ball very well. They're disciplined.

They don't give up pressures. Like they do everything that you can't stop if you're the Titans. And the first game they played, Baltimore was up by 11 in that game and just turned the ball over one or two times. Like, that's just what happened. They lost the game in overtime. If you're on the flip side, Tennessee's offense is fabulous. We get that.

But all you need if you're Baltimore, if you're going to score 28 to 35 points against Tennessee if you're Baltimore, let's just say, you need like four stops. That's it, four stops. If you can stop the run, you have an ability to get home against Tennessee if you're Baltimore. Let's just say. You need like four stops. That's it. Four stops. If you can stop the run, you have an ability to get home against Tennessee's offensive line that's not very good against, you know, pass blocking essentially, right? Against pressure. So I think there's so many things working in Baltimore's factor. Lastly here.

Lastly, Matt, is if Baltimore does not win this game, do they have to admit it's a failure? Because they'll be 0-3 now in the playoffs with this offense, with this quarterback. I mean, they're not going to give up on Lamar. But look, there's going to be some like, I don't know. We've lost three times in a row now in the playoffs as a favorite. Give me Baltimore. I'll buy down to three here. It's my favorite side of the week.

Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's my favorite side of the week. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool. But with my wireless, I get unlimited for just 30 bucks. Impressive. But does yours have 5G included? Of course. And my wireless saves me 400 bucks a year.

That's because you all have Xfinity Mobile with your internet. It's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. $30 per line per month. Taxes and fees extra. Compares pricing of top carriers. Xfinity internet required. Reduced speeds after 20 Wow, I'm surprised. When we texted that we liked this one, I assumed it would be Tennessee as a home dog. I'm on the Tennessee money line, baby. Plus 160.

Lamar Jackson, we all know, 0-2 in the playoffs. You mentioned the stakes here. I truly, I was genuinely surprised that Baltimore was favored here because, you know, this hot streak that they're on, other than the Browns and that sort of miracle game where Lamar allegedly may have pooped himself. Jags, Bengals, Cowboys, Giants, we're saying that's why we're trusting Baltimore. Tennessee also, we've seen these teams play a lot and like the same game has happened each time. Like it's possible that Baltimore could figure it out. But to get plus three and a half for Tennessee, I'm certainly intrigued by. To get

the money line, I'm very intrigued by, uh, to get the money line. I'm very intrigued by you mentioned Tennessee's defense, not being great. Well, Baltimore averages almost five yards per carry, uh, on defense. I don't know if you've heard this Derek Henry guy's pretty good. Um, and also, uh, in the past game, Baltimore gives up the most or sorry in the run game, their, their past exposed, their explosive pass rate is quite good in the run game their their pass exposed their explosive pass rate is quite good in the run game they're not quite as good uh they're 27th 24th in the league in uh explosive run rates which bodes very well for derrick henry um the other thing that is i think going to happen here is this game is going to go over in the total and that bodes well for tennessee for a couple of reasons first of all uh tennessee's

games this year have gone 12 3 and 1 to the over which is tops in the league uh and when these teams play it tends to be a lot of points uh last year's playoff game went under um baltimore's last seven playoff games as a favorite actually have gone under um but i think this one turns out to be sort of like the same game as the other times where Tennessee comes out, they score a bunch of points, and all of a sudden Baltimore's got to throw. And that's when they fall apart. But that didn't happen the first game, though. I mean, the first game this year. The first game this year, Baltimore jumped out to a big lead, turned the ball over a couple times.

So I think that there is a point to be made here. At plus three and a half. Tennessee is probably the play at minus three. I think Baltimore is the play, right? Like that, like the half point, in my opinion, matters a lot to how you bet this game. Um, obviously if it gets a two and a half, I would take Baltimore in a heartbeat. Uh, but I don't think it's going to get there. Um, everything, a lot of points you made are valid.

I'll just say from an exos perspective here's why baltimore's offense is different now okay um for about the first eight weeks of the year and plus last year they would have a bunch of tight ends in formation and they kind of put everyone in the box together they run a bunch of stuff and then play action pass okay and they kind of brought everyone into the box what they're doing now is they're spreading everything out they're not running with tight ends anymore they're just running with five offense alignment maybe a guy motions in the box maybe they have a full back and so everything on the defense is spread out now and so obviously there's more rushing lanes Lamar's averaging 86 yards rushing the last five weeks

but the passing attack has opened up because the defense is more spread out now right so when you have that spread out formations, you play action pass, you just run home pass, there's more room now, right? And the defense is spread out in the zone rather than just kind of hunkering down over the offense. Also, I know this sounds odd to say, and Tennessee Titans fans do not like this, but if I am trying to stop the Titans,

I'm trying to stop Ryan Tannehill first and Derrick Henry second. I know it sounds backwards, but would you rather give up a pass that averages 11 yards or run that averages five? You'd rather give up the run that averages five. The idea though, is that if you are behind in a game, you need to stop the run now.

And that's the problem, right? So Baltimore gets behind by 10 points in the fourth quarter, they're probably not coming back in the game. That's right. But if it's a shootout back and forth, then they'll be fine without stopping the run. So I know people, you know, Titans fans don't like to hear that,

but we looked at last year's playoffs. The Patriots allowed 14 offensive points to the Titans, played cover two. They let Derrick Henry run the football on them. Even Baltimore last year, Tennessee scored 28 points. A couple of those were off turnovers. And remember, the Ravens went 0-4 and fourth down that game.

That ain't going to happen this weekend. You're not going 0-4 and fourth down again. So I just think that everything points to Baltimore. Obviously, we disagree here. So look, you can choose who you like. You either like me and you take the minus three or you like matt and you go plus plus three and a half with the with the titans i feel like this one we can we're not going to have an agreement on this one yeah that's that's right um i want

to go back just just to look at this raven sort of hot streak um the the teams that they beat three of the last five teams they beat were uh 31st 30th and 29th in rush defense oh yeah um you know the browns are sort of the outlier along with the giants and the giants in that game that was daniel jones sort of like hobbling back um so a really a really soft uh hot streak uh and again there's usually a weird upset or two here and this this one, with the Titans, is a home dog with a crowd there. It just felt like... Would this be an upset, though? I mean, they're only favored by three.

It's not like a big upset. They're home dogs in the playoffs. That, to me, feels like... I don't know. I mean, I would be insulted if I were Tennessee, and that's not a great spot to go against. Yeah, I just think their defense cannot be insulted enough because they're just that bad. One other thing I like in this game by the way before we we uh move along

this is the one that this is my favorite bet of this game lamar jackson over 68 and a half rushing yards like that to me feels like that's a play that you feel pretty good about interesting um yeah i just think again the the spreading outlook you you can't run the defense tennessee ran in the playoffs last year if balton was going the defense Tennessee ran in the playoffs last year if Baltimore was going to spread everything out, right? The defense last year, Tennessee did a good job of kind of playing inside out. They forced everything to the sideline. And if you already spread out, you can't force things to the sidelines.

You guys are spread out already, right? So they can find the rushing lanes a lot easier. That's why I like – I think he's on a tear right now. Again, if this was like the Pittsburgh Steelers defense or this was the bills or colts i feel differently but the titans defense is hot garbage yeah it's not great jeff um i i was looking for a player prop last night when i was doing my prep for this for hollywood brown uh to potentially take an under do you know that he is he has less than 400 receiving yards since October combined? There were games where he would get shut out or have like one catch.

No 100-yard game since week one. He drops the ball every play. I mean, God, that guy. I mean, the last playoffs, he came to life. So maybe he could show up again here. But that was stunning to me. I was like, wow. But player props weren't available yet.

So maybe stay tuned on that one. Okay. Should we move on to the next NFC game here? Let's do it. Yeah. Yeah. So this is the game. I think I have the least like gambling feel for, uh, Chicago plus 10 at the saints. I think if we're taking a side here, the side of Chicago plus 10, I don't feel great about it, but here I can make the case for that before I make the case for what I actually want to play in this game. The last two times the Saints have played playoff games, they played the infamous game against the Rams

and they lost the Vikings last year. So the last two home games, they've lost the playoffs. And I think the year before that, they played the Vikings, they lost the Vikings in the Minneapolis Miracle. They kind of just underperformed in the playoffs. That's a good way to put it.

And you're getting a lot of points with the Bears here at plus 10. The problem with this bet is Mr. Brisky sucks. And that's why my favorite play this weekend is the Bears under 18 and a half points. Oh, I like that. Trubisky started nine games this season. He did not face a defense that finished the season above 14th in defensive DVOA. And that doesn't even include Atlanta,

who he played early in the season, who, you know, who, I think he got benched in that game even, right? He got benched in the Atlanta games. Like, they weren't even, they were much better at the end of the season than they were at the start of the season.

He played like the, I have it right here. He played Detroit 32nd twice, Jacksonville 31st, Houston 30th, Green Bay 17th, he played them twice, and the Giants at 19th.

And he didn't play the Giants, I think, even when they were good because they got better down the stretch. The Bears' second best defense, I mean the Saints' second-best defense in the NFL according to DVOA.

The Saints are graded by pro football focus. Second-best rushing defense and seventh-best pressure unit. The Bears are bottom third in the NFL for both those numbers on their offensive line. But here's the kicker, man. So if you cannot run the ball for the Bears, and I don't think they're going to be able to run the football, Trubisky has the lowest completion percentage and yards per attempt when facing pressure. So if you cannot run the football, get the third and long,

the Saints are going to bring it, man. They have a great pass rush. I think the Bears don't score a lot of points. If I'm taking a side, it's Bears plus 10, but also the team total is where, as where my eyes are at for that. That's a really good read on this game. Because one of the reasons I feel like I have no feel for this is

everybody comes back from COVID a little bit differently. If Alvin Kamara doesn't look like himself, like what is the saints offense? Michael Thomas, of course, like we think he's going to come back from his injury. Like the saints offense feels a little bit fragile um and you know Breeze is still working his way back to full health so I don't really trust them um I do have a lot of faith that the Bears will not

win this game um if I were to get some action on this one I would consider this one in a tease that is not groundbreaking uh you can tease it down maybe seven. The next game potentially could be a tease candidate. Also, you could be watching it up to maybe 14 and a half, 15, 15 and a half. Those aren't key numbers. Someone's going to lose one of these teases. People are going to tease Tampa, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh, and Buffalo. All four of those together.

It ain't going to be that easy. Someone's going to lose that tease. Yeah. Two team tees is probably the safe play because, yeah. It's possible this all goes chalk, but that doesn't, you know, that seems unlikely given what year we're in. So, yeah. And also when these two teams played in week eight, this went to overtime.

The Saints won by three and that's, you know, the Bears were the Bears had sort of begun their descent from like a hot start at that point. So it seems match up weirdly. Ten and a half. I'd probably buy the buy the Bears. But this is just not one I really want either side. And I I'm I'm with you here. So. All right. I mean, this feels like we both don't think the Bears have any opportunity in this game. But, you know, I think they're excited to get here. They're 8-8. They backed in the playoffs. All right.

One more game. And this one is my favorite bet of the entire weekend is in this game. All right. Let's hear it. It's Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Cleveland, who the hell knows who their coach is even going to be, but they're plus six currently as we're taping this. Okay.

So I like Pittsburgh at like minus four early in the week, plus six now. I mean, minus six doesn't feel as good. I still think Pittsburgh is the play here, but here's the bet I like. I couldn't believe I got this number. I do not know where your book is with this number. I know player props sometimes aren't even up right now um I got Baker Mayfield again for this is for my Fox Sports articles through Fox Bet we don't have a sponsor for this podcast for if you want to sponsor us be my guest I'm just using their lines right now um Baker Mayfield under 225 yards passing. Like, I am shocked this line is that high.

Low. That doesn't feel like a big number for a pro quarterback, so let's keep going. I'm interested. He's, against the Steelers, in five career games, he's averaging 176 yards passing, completing only 58% of his passing. Jeez.

He's been sacked 16 times, eight more than the next highest team he's played this season. When under pressure this season, Mayfield is 25th in passer rating and 24th in completion rating. He got only two touchdowns to four interceptions when playing the Steelers, excuse me, against pressure to say. Obviously, the stats earlier were against the Steelers. But here's even more reasons why I like this. First of all, Joel Batonio, their left guard, is out.

He is an all-pro caliber player. He's a pro bowler player. I feel bad for Joel. He's been there his entire career. He finally got a chance to be in the playoffs. He's not going to play in this game. Most times I'd say, like, you know what? Guard being out, not as big of a deal.

But guys, the Steelers front four is elite. And they don't have a backup. They don't have a guy like, hey, go do 75% of this job. They don't really have that guy. Now you have Cam Hayward, Stephon Tuitt, rested from last weekend, coming in to play the Browns. It's bad news, man, for Baker Mayfield. The run game is not as good when those guards are not playing.

We know when Wyatt Teller, the right guard, has been out this year, the run game is about two yards less per carry. Now you have Joel Batonio out. We have no metrics for that because Joel's played all season. So it's bad. And then Kevin Stefanski being out, the play caller, is a huge problem. Dan Orlowski's talked about this. I'll give him credit for bringing the subject up.

It's very true. Is it's a, the first 15 will be scripted, right? So Stefanski will script the first 15. That's normal down in distance. And it's just, you know, the first 15 points, you kind of get in a rhythm, kind of get some. After that, Alex Van Pelt's on his own. And what makes a good play caller elite is the play sequencing.

It's not just saying, okay, we're going to run this play here. It's what's the next play? What about the play after that? What about, are we going to counter off the play we ran seven plays ago and run that in the eighth play? So it's all about the sequencing of plays. And when he's not there, that to me is an issue. And lastly, I think the Steelers keep them in third and long situations.

And we've seen this happen plenty of times before. The Browns cannot run the football. They get in third and long. The Baker's forced to pass the football. And this is, to me, way too high. Look, I know five games you think is a small sample size. It's really not. We have a picture now of the same coach the same defense corner the same defense shutting down

a quarterback now that quarterback doesn't even have his head coach in the game who designs plays i think baker mayfield has a really rough game pittsburgh at minus four is better than the minus six but that's that's how i'm looking at this game at i couldn't agree more um but and I don't want to add much uh because you I completely agree um remember last week one of my favorite picks uh was Pittsburgh to cover that game with Mason Rudolph in there and that game was really close and the Browns were at home and had to squeeze that thing out to make the playoffs against a lot of pittsburgh backups now they have to go against the same team that didn't show quite as much with rothlisberger in there with tj watt in there and the browns given all they've been through and as a as a team and

in the last couple of weeks as a franchise they got to be a little bit happy to be there uh this is baker mayfield's first playoff game it's on the road it's against pittsburgh's defense without his offensive minded head coach uh that's not a great set of scenarios the browns are 3 and 11 against the spread on the road in their last 14 pittsburgh 7 and 2 against the spread in their last nine playoff games at home i think pittsburgh takes care of business here and i think we should think about them in some futures bets um already have them possibly remember plus 2500 we talked about this yeah i mean i look pittsburgh is is one of those teams that everyone just kind of wrote off after uh they they lost a couple of games uh they lost a couple of key players on the defense you could right now get them at plus

1800 to win the super bowl yeah the saints are plus 671 like this is just out of the you know the ravens who are going on the road this week are are uh plus uh a thousand so i really think you can get some good value on pittsburgh especially you know because they're gonna they're gonna win this game right like even if they don't cover like they're going to win this game, right? Even if they don't cover, they're going to win and then their odds will shrink. What's pretty interesting about this whole thing with the Steelers is that let's say they beat the Browns this weekend. They play well, offensively especially. They didn't go to Buffalo.

They didn't play that bad against Buffalo the first time. Their offense played terribly. The defense didn't play that bad. Defense was not time. Their offense played terribly. The defense didn't play that bad. Defense was not that bad, guys. They could go and beat Buffalo. So I think the value definitely – look, I like the Steelers from the start of the season as far as the best value to make the playoffs – make the Super Bowl, I should say, plus 2,500. So, yeah, I'm with you there.

I think that poor Browns, man. They get into the playoffs and just COVID just ravages them. It sucks. They haven't met as a full team in months, which is crazy to think about. I mean, they have just gotten hammered by COVID. It's crazy. It's wild. Okay.

So I don't even know. What do we even wrap this up as? We don't have consensus. Do we have to make consensus bets for this? Are we grading ourselves? How do we do matt because we have we're like all over the place we gave you a bunch of things we like and none of them are the totals or the sides yeah you know i think uh i don't think we need to do some some big wrap up here um we we gave the listeners a lot to go with i i'm curious what like do you have like a favorite favorite thing uh

this weekend? Yeah. So I wrote a confidence meter. And again, you go to Fox Sports and find this. So my favorite play the weekend was the Baker Mayfield under 225. Like that feels like, and I've bet his unders this season and they're very profitable. They're great to bet on. Like they're, especially against Steelers.

And then, you know, I liked, I think me and you are opposite sides on Baltimore. And I really liked that first half under in Washington, Tampa. I just bet Tampa minus five too, while we were talking, because I think that's a good play too. So that feels like my favorite bet that you gave out today was that Tampa minus five. I also think a Tampa-Pittsburgh teaser is the best two-leg teaser of the weekend. Yeah, that makes sense um I think Pittsburgh maybe like a Pittsburgh and Seattle Moneyline parlay could be kind of interesting um but yeah I think I think uh I like some of these teases I really like um your first half under angle for for Washington Tampa um yeah I I think there's a lot of opportunity

here but you kind of have to look at a little bit closely because uh the totals there I'm sorry this the spreads don't necessarily scream value to me yeah that's that's the problem with the playoffs I mean this is everyone is betting it's like the you know the the the books have everything down now for how they're going to do this. Real quick, bonus pick. The National Championship game is Monday. Alabama favored by eight over Ohio State. How did we not talk about that? Yeah, what do you think?

Do you have a lean there, buddy? I don't yet. I'm curious. I think Alabama is the play here for many reasons. One is that they're just the best team in the country. It's very simple. They pretty much laid down against Notre Dame

in the second half of that game. They have the best offensive line in the country. They have the highest in the country. I'm not sure Ohio State's secondary will be able to handle all Alabama can give them. Then, oop, oh, here's Najee Harris. You know, I think Clemson was a little full of themselves heading into that game kind of took Ohio State lightly and I don't see that happening with

Alabama I think there's the better football team it's eight right now uh it was seven I got it's seven I was still taking eight I think um and uh we'll see how it goes Monday night yeah that's gonna be great I'm I'm underprepared to talk national championship in public. That's fine. I will co-sign what you say. Yeah, that's fine. Yeah, what a football weekend. I know.

What an amazing weekend. And look, I'm proud of us, Matt. We were at 42% this year at one point. We were like 22 and 30. And we dug our way back out of the muck. We did. It's hard to like, guys, I know 41-40 is not the best year of all time, but it's hard to do this.

Especially this year, a lot of people ended up with losing records this year. Yeah. So, yeah, we went one, two, three, four, six straight winning weeks. We won one, two, three, four. So we had, you know, 10 winning weeks out of 17. So we'll just get better next year. We had those two 5-0, those two 0-5 weekends were just effing brutal. Yeah, we're like the Ravens.

We got hot at the end, and we'll see if we fall flat on our faces in week one of the playoffs or if we can sustain it. All right, everyone. Again, stay safe out there. Glad we were able to give you a little bit of reprieve from what's happening right now in our country. And enjoy the playoffs this weekend, and we'll talk to you on Tuesday. Take care, everyone. Thanks, Jeff.