Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - A Big Ten Comeback & 5 NFL Week 2 Picks

Episode Date: September 17, 2020

Big Ten football is officially back and we feel whole again. Geoff explains why this might get messy. Plus, after going 4-1 in Week 1, Matt & Geoff make five Week 2 SuperContest picks. Let's have some fun. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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The Pac-12 is getting close too. We'll discuss that. Then we'll jump into our picks against the spread. We started last week 4-1. Great job, Matt, getting this podcast on the right side in week one week one great start glad you guys were able to tail us along with that and with that i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this is jeff schwartz is smarter than you matt how are you doing buddy i'm hanging in there man four and one got nothing to complain about uh feeling pretty good after last week i'm not sure i could duplicate the same clairvoyance

this week um last week on this show i said i predicted that the jags would be the team that knocked everybody out of their survivor pool in week one if you listened you would still be in your survivor pool i went with the patriots myself i took the i took the ravens um and the guy who's running my survivor pool said to me that everyone was taking the Colts. I said, no, no, do not take the Colts. And we said last week, I said on this podcast, another one. I said, that was a trap game. That just smelled fishy.

The line was way too big. Yep. And I don't trust the Colts anyway. So that was part of it. And so before we get to all of that, Matt, you were wearing your Maryland Terrapins shirt. That's just an ugly logo. It's all the Under Armour. Easy now.

Easy now. Mr. Oregon Duck with your hundred weird uniforms. Let's just an ugly logo. It's all the Under Armour. Easy now. Easy now, Mr. Oregon Duck with your hundred weird uniforms. Let's just calm down with all that. And my very nice Oregon helmet right there. There it is. The Big Ten is back, officially back playing football. And the Pac-12, by the way,

seems very close to officially being back to play football. Matt, I feel very whole again that we're getting everyone back in line to play football. How did it make you feel today to see the Big Ten come back? Well, I don't have a whole lot to say that is profound here. I mean, I worry mostly about the kids at my school being safe.

And the thing that kind of blew me away was the expense to each university just to handle all of these tests. And I think, you know, it's going to be a huge undertaking for every one of these schools. And I get why they did it. I obviously am going to be watching and I'm happy for more football always. But, you know, it's a complicated decision. And the fact that they were, were you know that other football is happening and seemingly there's no big problems and the nfl's back and went off without a hitch didn't make the take football away argument stronger um but you know no guarantees how

well this goes i just uh i'm just thinking of the players and hoping for the best yeah well look i'll be frank the players want to play right the players want to play the coaches want to coach and the biggest obstacle was getting the testing they're at the daily rapid testing i have not seen the big 10 announce who they're partnering with for that we saw the pac-12 announce and the big 10 to be big 12 announcer with quidel to get to get daily rapid testing i saw another conference announced another partnership i think it was the aac announced another partnership for daily rapid testing these These tests, by the way, are fantastic. University of Arizona has been using antigen testing just on their own. They conducted their

own study, 25,000 students that they have studied, and the results are incredible. They can often detect coronavirus before it actually is like detectable by other tests so the tests are great and that in my opinion was the biggest obstacle to getting back sports in in the big 10 out and out west in the pac-12 the pac-12 has other issues with state and local restrictions which seem as of wednesday night when we're recording this to have been eased in one day i do not know why the pac-12 was not more forceful in trying to get these through. But I'll take football any way we can get it. And I'm glad that the Big Ten is back. I'm glad the Pac-12 will be back as well.

It's going to be messy. I'll end with that. Because the Big Ten has set themselves up for no bye weeks. And they have very stringent testing in return to play guidelines. 21 days for a player who has tested positive for the coronavirus if you have more than five percent of your team test positive you're out for the minimum of seven days so matt i mean it's a lot to it's a small margin of error to get a big reward obviously so it puts the onus on the players to do their job when they leave when they leave the facility yeah which is the

obviously always the hardest part of this um yeah the timing's interesting too i mean obviously with nationally like given the amount of conversation about it um but i think you know we're on the same side of this point which is like great more football like how great did it feel last week like i it felt like we were just back to life like there it just it went off without a hitch the games were pretty good as you guys talked about on on tuesday like it just felt so nice to have that thing that ritual that that source of joy in our lives jeff i needed it i was dying over here and your washington football team let's go eat the eagles we picked them to cover so we did a great job there and i think it's time

matt to get into our picks again. We're using the Super Contest numbers. These are numbers that are used in Super Contests. Look, they're going to change between now and the time that you listen to this, possibly. Either Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. But these are universal numbers. We're going off them. And we're at four in one week.

So let's have some more fun this week, Matt. Let's go, Jeff. We're riding a heater. Let's keep this thing going. Teams that are not riding a heater are the teams playing Thursday night, the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are six-point dogs at the Cleveland Browns. You said before the show that you had a feel here. I am dying to know what it is.

Well, look, I mean, the feel is is the bangles um but the problem with the problem with this feel and by the way a theme of this week is going to be betting on bad teams just fyi it's going to be the thing that they got to adjust the lines here's why here's why i can't do it by the way here's why i can't do it the Bengals are down both starting defensive tackles. Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels are both down. So I cannot bet on them knowing that those guys are down considering how much the Browns want to run the football, especially after Baker Mayfield struggled so poorly the other day. But Baker Mayfield, by the way, has not been good at covering the spread.

5-11-1 in the last 12 games. And that's basically because he hasn't been very good. And I think that trend might continue. I think that the Bengals cover this, but I can't put our money... And by the way, we are actually betting these with our own money. So this is like,

we're putting these into super contests. So we're not just telling you to bet them and not doing ourselves. We've put money into super contests to play these picks. I can't put my money on this game. If I had any lean here, it'd actually be Cleveland because I think Cleveland ran into Baltimore with a new head coach.

It's week one. Like Baltimore is an awesome team. And I think Vegas like anticipated the overreaction and kind of overdid it the other way in a few spots here. Like in most years, I feel like this would be a minus three and we'd be talking each other into the Browns. But six, it's like, hold on here. I mean, I this just I would lean Cleveland off of a disappointment. You mentioned, you know, Atkinson, the tackles out, but hard pass. you mentioned Gino Atkinson that he tackles out but hard pass I I just I'll just tell you man I I told you guys before the season I thought Baker Mayfield was gonna be was gonna be better

this year I I just I haven't seen him man like that's why this would be a bet against him but I agree we have better we have better players on the board yeah I mean do you think that that's they could turn it around or do you think do you think that could have been a new Coach Jitters thing in week one? Surely it could have been. But I just feel like Baker still has a lot of growth to do. And I just didn't see much of it. It could be new Coach Jitters. Definitely could.

But again, I don't really – I don't, I don't like it. Let's just not even think about this game until we inevitably both have a side bet on it tomorrow and hate ourselves for doing it. Next game, speaking of terrible things to watch, Jacksonville, eight and a half point dogs at the Titans. So this opened at 11 and I think some people got excited about minchu mania uh where do you stand i don't want to i don't want to touch this game at all um i don't know how you feel about this game but this is one where important but again this this we had an overreaction obviously to the jags winning and as in our producer notes 99 of the the money is on Jacksonville. I am not about to – there's actually value in taking the Titans minus nine because so much money is on Jacksonville.

This is something where we talk about kind of fading the public, and it's smart to fade the public. But I can't do it, Matt. I can't bet this game. See, I actually feel like you could talk me into the Titans here. I feel like I could be talking to them if we don't have other ones we like. I mean, I do feel like that 11 is about what we would have had it at had the Jags not shown up and beat the Colts.

You know, Tennessee, look, they should have been a lot more comfortable in Denver. Steven Gostkowski really made it difficult. So, you know know i think you're actually getting the titans kind of low here so i'd put them on the maybes but again nine points for ryan tannahill it feels that i can't never mind so let's just leave it off yeah it's a lot it's a lot man well maybe you have a better feeling here because i suspect you will this This is the Giants at the Bears. The Bears are five and a half point favorites. Feels kind of steep for, you know, one good quarter of Mitch Trubisky. What do you think?

I think the play is the Giants here. Yep. But I don't feel great about it because what if their offensive line implodes again and they can't score points? I mean, like, that's my concern. The again defensively don't have anyone i think this is extreme overreaction to trubisky coming back if they lose that game 23 to 6 this is just a three point spread right do we agree on that just a classic totally three point so you get the giants at at two and a half points of value ah man, man, I just, I think there's other better bets on the board,

man, that I, I, that I trust teams to do this. I just, do you trust the giants offensive line? I don't, I don't trust them.

Cleo Mack, Akeem Hicks, um, who on the giants defense is going to step up and stop anyone in the bears. I thought, I mean, we're, we're,

we're telling each other, we're not going to overreact and i agree with that but i do feel like the giants actually acquitted themselves pretty well daniel jones had that really terrible interception which like you know okay but then remember they were going against the best defense in the league in the in the steelers with a brand new head coach i actually thought the giants played better than i thought they would. And meanwhile, Chicago, you said it. If DeAndre Swift catches that pass, this is a three-point line. I don't even think, like, if it had just been, you know,

not a tremendous all-the-way comeback, but if Chicago had just lost, which they should have, it'd be a three-point line. The other thing, Jeff, is Mitch Trubisky owns the Lions. Like, he's won five straight against the Lions, and so he always looks good against them. The one guy Matt Patricia can't figure out, Mitch Trubisky, probably not a great sign.

So I just like the points here. Is Chicago going to put up a ton, beat anybody in the whole NFL by a touchdown? I don't know if I see it. So here's a couple things to consider. I know you said Daniel Jones lookedones looked okay they were 27th on offense so um i'm assuming uh passing offense over 30 seconds obviously rushing they were atrocious rushing the ball uh detroit ended up 11th after week one in russian dvoa 19th and

passing dvo i just think they're the better team right now i'm okay with putting the giants as a maybe a plus five and a half if we need to end up coming back to this. But I would almost feel more comfortable with the Titans minus nine than I would the Giants plus five and a half. Oh, God. All right. I'm writing it down. Maybe Giants, maybe Titans. I put it as a maybe. I mean, I

get the play because, again, I think we both agree that if the Giants had made that game a little bit closer and the Lions had lost, this would be a three-point spread. So you're getting two and a half points. I mean, there is definitely just straight old school value on this. Yeah, I think there is. And this week, we might not have any huge feelings.

We might have to play a few of those. I have a feeling we might feel pretty strongly about this one. Atlanta at Dallas. have to play a few of those um i have a feeling we might feel pretty strongly about this one uh atlanta at at dallas uh dallas is a four and a half point favorite uh big discrepancy the money is all over the falcons here what do you think um well i think the money a little bit has changed a little bit the bets look like they're about 50 but the money is 68 on on the the cowboys only 32 on the on the falcons but the line open at seven the line open at seven it's four and a half now so it seems like a lot of sharp money coming in on atlanta i'm not betting on atlanta ever again so um they they've broken my heart way too many times and um i actually i i lean dallas here um i i wouldn't i just can't of course i'm not

betting i just i can't do it but i i don't of course you're leaning dallas jeff atlanta looked terrible last week you talked about dvoa they had the worst defensive dvoa in the entire league and russell wilson was incredible but look at the complement of weapons on this Dallas offense. I think this is a huge overreaction to Dallas losing one game to a good team on the road in primetime. They always lose those. Right. But still are adjusting to the new coach. They are a much better team all around. And the Falcons have a bunch of injuries in their secondary.

This just feels like a clear Dallas to me. Because I like Dallas a lot this year. And they played terribly in week one and you're like oh my god how can i do that and i i really when i looked at the line just what i thought to myself yeah this is this is a straight take dallas because they're just a better team uh was this like a 27 20 game something like that or even more i look i i think if dallas if if uh jalen ramsey hadn't have like perfectly flopped last week this would be dallas seven like i think that that and you know that one one yard deeper on that crossing route from cd lamb and mike mccarthy's hailed as the genius who replaced jason garrett who was too conservative like i just think this is a total

overreaction and i'm surprised the public's not just crushing this one. Atlanta stinks. We all know Atlanta stinks. Dallas, we all thought a week ago was going to be awesome. They started really, really slow last year, too, which doesn't really help. They always start slow, and they come back and save Dan Quinn's job. I think this,

I feel fine going with Dallas. Let's put Dallas in there. I was leaning this direction. We talked about this beforehand. I need a couple. I right, let's put Dallas in there. I was leaning this direction. We talked about this beforehand. I need a couple. I think we both need a couple this week where we're like, hey, man, we're putting this in there. This feels like.

Let's fade the Falcons. They're terrible. They look at the worst team in the league last week. Let's do it. All right. Well, one down. Hopefully the other four will come to us. The next one. This one's coming in hot. Oh, good. I don't know how I feel about this one. All right. Well, one down. Hopefully the other four will come to us. The next one.

This one's coming in hot. Oh, good. Because I don't know how I feel about this one. All right. So this is Denver at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is a seven-point favorite. Bet up from five and a half. What do you think?

Give me the black and gold, black and yellow. Pittsburgh Steelers in this one. Okay. Here's the reason why. All right. Obviously, you know I'm high on the Steelers. I've been for the entire offseason. We saw in the Giants game,

it took a little bit of time, but eventually their offense got going. Big Ben found a rhythm. Second half, they made some adjustments. And the Broncos this week without A.J. Bouye, who's going to be a big loss for them. And they already lost Chris Harris Jr. to the Chargers in the offseason.

Who's going to guard the Pittsburgh weapons? They keep finding weapons, right? Chase Claypool in the second round. We know Washington had a big game for them the other day as well. The offensive line is healthy. Excuse me, sorry, Zach Banner got hurt, but the rest of the offensive line is doing well. That is a little concern, but no Von Miller.

So no Von Miller. So you have a backup right tackle for the Steelers. It doesn't really matter. The reason why I like this more than anything is Drew Locke versus Steelers defense. The Steelers defense brought a ton of pressure in week one. They brought the most blitzes of any team in the NFL, 27 blitzes of five plus rush. Now, some of that is their base defense, to be fair, but they bring the heat. We know last season they led the NFL in pressures and they were up there the top of week one. Drew Locke, the Broncos' starting quarterback, has played six games. He's 4-2.

Oh, my God, 4-2. The offense only scored 20 points a game with him as a starter. And guess what, Matt? He's terrible against pressure. Here we go. Against the Blitz, he's completed only 48% of passes versus no Blitz, 72.4% of his passes. Wow.

That is a big difference. And the Steelers' defense we saw the other day is going to get after the Broncos. It's a lot of points. I get it. Seven's a lot. But then when you look at the beat-up secondary, the lack of pass rush for the Broncos, Drew Locke poor against pressure. Steelers coming back home.

Big Ben's got that game under his belt now. Feeling a little bit better. I know Zach Banner's out of right tackle, but they'll be fine there. I like this a lot. I will feel, I felt coming into this how you felt in the last game. I like, if I had gotten a good push, I would have gone with it.

And I'm with you for sure. Phillip Lindsey also out. So all of a sudden, Cortland Sutton, we don't know at this point. He's still recovering from that injury, but that offense could be Drew Locke, Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jerry Judy KJ Hamler who's coming off of his injury hopefully making his first start that's tough ask against the best defense in the league off of a short week where they have to travel I this one this feels like a nice uh the nice spot for Pittsburgh the

sevens a lot but I'm willing to do it I'm in. We got two on the board. We got two on the board. All right. Okay, maybe we'll get a third here. Maybe we won't. Minnesota is going to Indy. Indy three-point favorites because I think Vegas just did the shrug emoji on this one. What do you think? Do you have anything here?

I'd rather not bet on this game. Zimmer's teams aren't very good on the road three and nine three and six has sheds a road dog um i just don't know what i i trust from the vikings i think they'll score points but i i don't know i don't trust the i don't trust that you know i've been out on the colts for a while i don't trust the colts either i i don't i i would stay away i think we have better options what do you think i I'm on Minnesota, Jeff. This is a lot of respect for a Colts team that just lost to Gardner Minshew and gave up 19 of 20 passing. The Colts defense in their last six games has given up 29 points, and they give up a lot of stuff underneath, which Cousins is going to be very comfortable with.

Look, I think that Minnesota showed more signs of life than the Colts did. And I actually kind of felt like they turned a corner in that second half where maybe that first half was a little bit preseason-y for Minnesota. And then with the pressure off, they kind of like were able to work some things out. Adam Thielen looked great. I don't know, man. This just feels like a very respectful line for indianapolis and i still feel like i'm missing something philip rivers looked dreadful last week and i get that minnesota needs some time to gel on defense but they're going to i don't see them being oh and two after playing indy they just have a lot of issues on defense and there's all the money is

on minnesota this week yeah well i mean they also played green bay who i think might be pretty good like i think that's one of the things we learned out of last week is green bay is good um jacksonville is not good so i'm a little confused at this one i can we put this in the maybe pile for now yeah let's do that okay let's win the maybe pile okay it's very good yes vikings are a maybe all right let's move on here to oh man i'm interested on the in this one so this is your hometown carolina panthers they're going to tampa bay to face tampa and the bucks uh the bucks are nine pointpoint favorites. Thoughts? Well, I think the over is the play in this game, by the way.

I think the over is definitely the play, but we're not picking those sides. I think actually Tampa Bay team total is probably a good takeover here as well. Here's the tough part about this, is that I lean Tampa Bay. You know I'm going to go lean Tampa Bay. We know Teddy Bridgewater is an absolute. Do I know you're going to lean Tampa Bay?

I don't know. We know Teddy Bridgewater is an absolute covering fiend. I mean, he covers a lot of football games as a starter. He's now 27-8 as a starter covering games. But I just feel like this number is – I mean, would it have been like 11 or 12 if they won last week i mean like the panthers only lost 13 yeah lost by four last week they didn't play that bad um oh boy i i would lean i would lean tampa here but i don't know if i like it so i i i am not going to talk us into

carolina here but i do want to talk about about Tampa a little bit because like you said it. I think this might have been like a 13 point game if this were week one. Tampa, so much hype. They, you know, Carolina looks decent on offense. You mentioned playing over, you know, Tampa Bay's defense was the better unit for sure. But, you know, Carolina, their offense the better unit for sure but you know carolina their offense i think could acquit them and you mentioned bridgewater the problem with tampa i think the three most important non-quarterbacks on their offense are evans godwin and donovan smith

right the left tackle so evans is we don't know what his deal is but he was just a total non-factor last week god Godwin under concussion protocol today. Donovan Smith probably won't play next week. He might actually be out. Those are huge injuries. And, you know, this is a nine-point spread. God, I feel like this one might drop down a little bit and then get hit on game day and pop back up again. game day and pop back up again i am just if if anything i'm thinking carolina might be able to keep it kind of close as tom as tom in the offense kind of figures this thing out but

i don't i don't really want to put too much on that um i'm i'm okay with like putting in the in the the maybe pile for now oh man i talked us into it and now i regret it no no no because i think we have i think we have more games that are in in a normal year i like if this is a week a later game i would say yeah man like i'm all in carolina plus nine but i just oh no let's let's see what else we have okay let's do that uh the next game is, let's see here. The Bills are road favorites, five and a half point road favorites at Miami. A lot of money and bets coming in on Buffalo right away. Oh, you know where I'm going with this one, buddy.

Talk to me. All over the Miami Dolphins. Let's go. Me too. I feel like this is one of those where we're going to have an extreme overreaction to the Dolphins playing a really good team and defense in the Patriots and not doing so well. And then we're going to have an extreme overreaction to Buffalo playing the terrible Jets and playing well.

Did they play well? Like they didn't even play that well. They won. They won. But I just think this is a game, by the way, than any other year we'd be all over, right? Like, home dog getting five and a half points with Ryan Fitzpatrick feels like,

especially with all the money on Buffalo, all the money. Look, the issue is in this game is I don't really have like any trends I could tell you that really helps with any of this stuff. I mean, I, nothing.

I mean, like I, there's not, I look, I looked Matt, maybe you have something like I looked for like, okay, this is like,

this is, this is the number, right? This is the reason why I don't. But I just, I just have a feeling that, that this is going to, um i don't um but i just i just have a feeling that that this is gonna this will be a close game this is situational betting and i'll say this miami everyone assumes that if they even i mean we were we were playing them last year um when they were they had a

terrible record and later in the season nobody really caught on it's the end miami last week was in that game the whole game it was 14 and 14 11 until there were six minutes left or something like that yeah i mean and even after that miami was never truly out of it they don't quit this is a home opener you know and they get fans they get fans they do get fans which is interesting i mean what i think sean mcdermott was already complaining about that before the season even started buffalo like you said they played well i like i don't think they actually did like josh allen he had the worst throw of all of sunday i think we texted each other right after a bunch of turnovers stefan dinks clearly is like working his way in still i don't think there's some powerhouse like i think Miami can certainly hang with them. And sure, let's do it.

I'm good. Let's do it. Let's go to Miami there. So we've got it. What do we have here? I think we have three yeses now. We've got Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Miami in our yeses and a whole bunch of maybes. So we're doing well.

The next one up here is the 49ers. They're going to New York to play the Jets. The Jets uh six and a half point home dogs um what do you think oh boy you know you know where i'm going with this one i don't i don't like you we text about this today the play is the jets but i but I just, oh God, I can't do it. This is that hold your nose and bet game. Yeah. But I already like, we already have three bets in there that we feel pretty good about.

And there's at least two more that I like a lot more in this one. So I'm going to pass on this one. Let's agree to lay off, but I do like the money line for Miami. This one feels like another one where you could get crazy odds and redeem yourself for a bunch of other dumb money line plays if you get this one right. The injuries are really concerning for San Francisco, and this is a tough spot, awful loss, travel across the country, have to cover seven. And this is a tough spot, awful loss, travel across the country, have to cover seven. I don't know. I agree.

Stay away. But the Jets are definitely the player. I'm staying away. Yeah. Stay away for us. Perfect. The next one is the Rams. They are one point dogs. They're going to Philadelphia coming off of that loss to my football team.

What do you think? Okay. This is the game that I had a lot of trouble with because it opened at Philly favored by three and a half, which just didn't seem because the rams looked pretty good the other day and i this line movement it's just it's an odd i i kind of just i want to stay away man it just feels weird yeah i also feel like everyone in any pool is gonna is gonna have one side or the other in this one because it's such a small line and everyone got a good sense for those two teams um you know with philly i you know the rams the rams won a big high profile game it was the late game they have to fly philly's off of a loss i would probably lean with the short the short home dog year but i agree i i would rather just skip this one um yeah this is one where like

i i think i personally bet the eagles at plus three and a half or no i bet the rams at plus three and a half maybe like i just was i was like wait this is like but now i just i don't like it now i just don't like it now i'm not we're not putting this in here it's a weird fishy line right yeah it is uh i think i I think Vegas might secretly like the Rams, and they want suckers like us to take the Eagles. All right, let's move on to the next game. So this is Detroit at Green Bay. The Packers are favored by six.

What do you got here? Nothing. I don't like this game. Interesting. Do you like it? I didn't either. No, I didn't either, i didn't either but then i sort of thought like well green bay would be the play here i look watching green bay last week i really

thought that last year for whatever reason we just didn't give them enough credit like yes they were 13 to 3 they played a soft schedule they lost They lost to the teams where they could have made the statement. But there has to be something to be said for a team that is just consistently solid and shows up. And Devontae Adams, as we've talked about, is the key to that offense after, obviously, Rodgers. Like, when he is there, he's unstoppable. Like, him and Rodgers are so dominant in the red zone. I think Detroit stinks. Like, they looked terrible

last week even when they were leading i guess stafford helps them but i don't mind laying seven or six with green bay here so here's a couple things um detroit is 13 7 and 1 in the first four games against the spread of the season since 2015 they start very fast and they break their everyone's hearts later uh but the problem is they're not very good against the the packers at lambo right they famously have gotten their butts kicked for many many years at lambo um the reason why i don't like this in general is because i think that we still have according to what we still have multiple games i really do like and that's part of this as well like i just think that there's there's still i mean the pittsburgh sealers is my favorite and there's still like one here that i just i'm gonna just i put a lot of money on myself and

we have a lot more we have better bets still okay then let's let's keep going is i'm wondering if it's this game this is the washington football team it's one of them yes at uh the arizona cardinals the cardinals are six and a half point favorites. So I'm curious what you have here. Oh, this is the Washington football team plus six and a half in my opinion. Wow. And I know you're a Washington football fan,

but Arizona did beat a good team last week in the Niners. Maybe they're good. Maybe they're not this year, but they did. But their efficiency numbers weren't terribly great, right? 20th on offense, 17th on defense. Washington's number one in the NFL in DVOA on offense. The Arizona Cardinals do not have a great offensive line.

Now, the question is, obviously, is Kyler Murray the difference maker, right? Because of his speed and his ability to get into space and make things happen. Ron Rivera is notoriously great as a dog. He was great in Carolina as a dog. He continues, I think in my opinion, obviously last week, to be great as a dog. He's 19-12 as a dog with the Panthers and then obviously with the Eagles, including with the Redskins against the Eagles.

Cardinals 3-0 is a favorite with under Cliff Kingsbury. I don't know, man. I just, I like Washington plus six and a half. I'll put it down as a maybe. Again, there's two other picks I like way more than this. No, this is one of them. I like Washington plus down as a maybe. Again, there's two other picks I like way more than this. No, this is one of them. I like Washington plus six and a half. I mean, what Washington, I think, is going to do this season is,

I think the game they had in week one was their best case scenario game. They didn't blow it. And as a Washington fan, I've watched them just lose games on their own for years. And they didn't do that. They didn't have that terribly timed penalty. You know, they got some bailouts here and there and, but they made the best of the situation, right? When they had short field position, they scored, uh, you know, but they can't, they have nobody on offense who's going to scare anyone. Um, so look, I think they could maybe keep it close if their defense has another game like they did in week one by far the highest rated dvoa uh on defense um but i i

don't feel i don't feel great about this one especially on the road and coming off of a big win okay well i'm okay with putting it in maybe you know this team more and more you know better than than i do and so i'm good with a maybe here. I mean, I don't think I – I didn't recognize them last week, so maybe I don't. They really impressed me. One team that also really impressed me, Baltimore. Seven-point road favorites at the Texans. God, they're just dying for you to play the Texans here.

I'm curious where you are on this. Yeah, I'm not playing the Texans. I am playing Baltimore. I'm on ice at seven. Lock it in. Baltimore was on a mission this year. They also destroy really bad defenses. Since the beginning of last season,

when they kind of took a little bit of time to get going, they score a ton of points all the time, but they don't stop scoring points Houston's offense by the way look completely lost against Kansas City Deshaun Watson did not look good uh without DeAndre Hopkins um the Ravens we know can get pressure on the quarterback there's a good all around team and I think Matt their goal this year is to destroy every single team as much as they can here's some numbers for you. Ravens 10 and one spread, excuse me,

10 and one against the spread on the road since the middle of 2018. Texans are two and six as a host against the spread the last season at home. I just think that the Ravens are going to steamroll the Texans. You've convinced me. I'm in, I'm in. I really thought, I knew that we weren't

going to play the texans so i thought that this was just giving me a stay away based on the number i'm i'm going so hard on these veteran teams man that can score points i just think that i think ray was on a mission this year i'll bet them until i can't anymore okay i'm in that's uh i'm glad i'm glad we're putting one very good team in here. Although we have ended up taking a lot of solid teams. So, all right, Baltimore. On the list, I have no good counter for that. I'm in.

Curious where you are here with your Kansas City Chiefs eight and a half point road favorites at the Chargers. You go first. I'm curious. I mean, my argument is basically the one you just made i'm just fine taking the chiefs here i mean the chargers i i think it was because it was in that late slot on the four o'clock slot yeah i feel like and i had i had bet the uh the chargers to cover the three for all the reasons we talked about on this show last week, rookie quarterback, they can't do anything on offense. Like their offense was handoff to Josh Kelly for three yards,

overthrow Mike Williams, punt. And Randy Bullock got sniped in the calf. And that's the only reason that the Chargers are 1-0. Look, the Chiefs look like they could beat anybody in the league by 100. And the Chargers, you know, I don't think that they have some huge advantage by being back at home. The Chiefs also get the mini bye week with Andy Reid. Like, I am finally in the nine here. This is as square of a play as it gets, but I think it's the right play.

Yeah. Why are we thinking? Here's some stuff to help us here. Chiefs have covered their last 10 games. Kind of impressive, right? Amazing. Covered their last 10 games. Andy Reid is 6-1 against the spread

versus the Bolts in the last seven games. He just owns, he owns Chargers. I told you this, you know this, I bet this game personally minus six and a half on Sunday. I was watching the Chargers play.

I looked ahead, there were week two look ahead lines. I was like, six and a half points. Oh my God, this is stealing. Give me the Chiefs. So I'm good with like,

I'm good with like Chuck and Washington out of here, go with the Chiefs. This is an extremely, extremely squarey board we have going. But I feel like right now that's okay. Baltimore, Kansas City, Dallas. Yeah, it's ridiculous. We got Baltimore.

Right now we have Dallas, Pittsburgh, Miami, Baltimore, and the Chiefs. Yeah. All right. Well, let's see if we can have a better case here on some of the next ones. The next game, I think, is the most fascinating Rorschach test of this week, where you don't know what you see is going to be different for everyone. The Patriots are four-point dogs at Seattle. Opened at three.

Lots of money poured in on the Seahawks. Now it's at four. What do you think? Well, I think this is a stay-away game. I think that you look at Seattle, the way they played offensively. Last week, it's a very bad Falcons defense. Now they get the Patriots defense.

The Patriots last week got some goodwill, right? They played well. They should have scored 28 points. You know, Nikhil Iyer fumbled at the back of the end zone. But now they're traveling all the way to Seattle. A couple notes here. Bill Belichick has not been a dog very often. He's only been a dog 15 times since 2010.

Good point. He's 12-3 against the spread as a dog. Seattle has not been very good at home lately, by the way, covering. Two and seven last nine as a host. And we know Seattle, there's no home field advantage this year so it doesn't matter as much oh boy um i think the play is is new england if you're betting this the play is new england and i and i just i think that we have better games i feel better at on me too the one thing i you know i think a few things i learned last week i don't think i learned a ton about the Patriots.

I think they did that option stuff with Cam because he knows how to do it. It works. He's healthy. He's going to grow into that offense and throw it around a little bit more once he gets some reps, I think. Seattle always has some game in September

where they just don't show up, right? Like every year you see that stat where it's like Pete Carroll in December is 100 million and one and in September he's like 2 and 15 like he just this feels like getting Bill Belichick as an underdog it just feels kind of nice but I agree this I don't I might play this one on the side for fun on sunday night but i i don't love it but the play would be new england it would be new england um look i mean this is i'll tell you what this is the one time where we have a ton of public money on seattle like a lot and new england is new england is the is the sharp play here plus Plus four. I might move them.

I might. Look, I think the other thing with this is Seattle beat Atlanta. Atlanta may be the worst team in the league after that last week. I'm serious. They got it together on offense. But that game was just such a massacre. So here's the question for our picks right now. Would you rather have miami

plus five and a half at home against buffalo or new england plus four well i i want to go through the last game here because i actually feel really strongly about it um it's the saints five and a half point favorites at the raiders um i don't know if you've got a feel for this but i have i have none so go and by the way i'm looked i looked down on my i actually print out notes believe it or not. So that's why, like, if you ever look at this,

I'm looking down, I have actual notes that I print out that like I type up and print out. So, um, all right, go ahead, buddy. I have like a beautiful nine type situation here on my,

uh, my iPhone notes here. I have stuff on my notes, like on my computer, but I like to actually like print stuff out so I can see it, like hold it in my hands. Um, all right, go ahead so look the saints won last week and they beat the bucks who everybody assumed would be pretty good and i think every year we all do this thing in our heads that we

used to do with you know the patriots we used to do with peyton manning and the colts where we just assume the Saints, they're probably a top five team, right? It's like, yeah, they're pretty complete. They had a nice showing at home. They took care of business. Let's just mark the Saints as this safe team. Well, Michael Thomas is out. And what is their offense going to be exactly without Michael Thomas? Okay, it's going to feature a lot of Alvin Kamara, who looked good last week. Oakland last year was in the top five of rush defense in terms of yards per rush when they were in Oakland. Sorry, I'm going to keep doing that for a while. They're opening their new stadium in Las Vegas. The Saints are coming off of a big emotional win

against arrival where they were talking a lot of crap afterwards, and the Raiders never win those games where they're road favorites. They took care of business. They're going to come home. This is the game that they show up for. It's an early in the season game where John Gruden's better. They're opening their stadium. You know, no Michael Thomas. I'm surprised that this isn't a little bit closer.

I don't think the Saints looked that great last week. Yeah. I don't want to bet on the Raiders, though. I don't think the Saints looked that great last week. Yeah. I don't want to bet on the Raiders, though. I don't think they're that good. I don't think they're that good either, but I just like the spot. Five and a half point home dogs opening a stadium.

Yeah, this empty stadium. You like this better than the other picks we have? I'm surprised that didn't move you at all because I've looked at this long and hard. I mean, this was at six, and then Michael Thomas went out, and now it's five and a half.

That feels a little bit fishy to me. I think that people just think the Raiders aren't very good. I mean, that's fair. They had a ton of points last week. You can make the case that the Saints didn't even play as well as they should have against Tampa Bay, especially early on in that game. If you're not into it, let's pass on it. Vegas was 23rd in defense after week one.

They played a Carolina offense that I wouldn't consider to be like terribly great right i mean no but uh they did look they they had it together last week carolina i was impressed with uh with them overall but look what we would do with this is we put this in the maybes and it'd be our first one out so we're going to that part of it now anyway let's just wipe this one off the board so here okay so here we go ready yep so it looks like our five that we decided were dallas minus five minus four and a half pittsburgh minus seven miami plus five and a half baltimore minus seven casey minus eight and a half i mean if that's the squarest board i've ever seen i don't i mean that's just yeah we're doing a gambling show let's let why don't we go through some of our maybes here i i will say of our five the first three i feel the best about i feel great about dallas i feel great about pittsburgh and i feel great about miami baltimore and the chiefs are

sort of the same logic so i feel like like, you know. I love Baltimore. Okay. So let's put them in. The Chiefs one is like, but Tyra Taylor's not any good. Yeah. Well, why don't we go through our maybes here? Our other, go ahead. So we have the Giants plus five and a half.

The Titans minus nine. The Vikings plus three. Eight and a half, yep. Oh, sorry plus five and a half, the Titans minus nine, the Vikings plus three. Eight and a half. Yep. Oh, sorry. Eight and a half. Carolina is getting eight and a half or nine? The Titans are getting – the Titans are laying eight and a half.

Okay. Yeah. Carolina minus nine, Washington plus six and a half, New England plus four. I feel like I would feel comfortable putting New England in that category. Yeah. Yeah. I think we can lose. We had talked about Minnesota.

Let's lose that. I'm fine punting on the Giants. Yeah. I'm fine punting on the Titans. Yeah, the Titans are playing Jacksonville. Yeah, I'm fine with that. So now we're down to a final three of new england washington and the chiefs but do you want to throw one out of the five that was a question well i think the chiefs

are the one we feel the least strong about yeah collectively um you know i i don't really want to go against Russell Wilson or Kyler Murray. So we could just go against Tyra Taylor. I'd be fine with that. Yeah. But that is a really square board. I really worry about how square this board is. Don't you? Should we talk about Dallas or Pittsburgh?

I think the Dolphins were locked. We knew we wanted one right here's what here's what i think it is i think here's what i think it is um the cam is not playing well against seattle in his career that's not good that's got he's one in five against them that's obviously with a different much different team but it doesn't complete a lot of passes against them whatever Dude, we get a chance to bet on the New England Patriots as a dog. I just think you – yeah, again, it's not Tom Brady. But what Belichick can do all week is say, hey, look, guys, we're a dog. No one believes in us. And they're the sharp play.

How often do you get this? Never. Well, what would you kick out? How often do you get this? Never. Well, what would you kick out? I almost would throw out Miami, but I just – the Chiefs are on such a run right now. I don't know how you –

I think I'd throw the Chiefs out. I might throw the Chiefs out. I've wanted Miami all week. Yeah, I agree. I've wanted Miami all week too. I've wanted Dallas all week. I think you've wanted Pittsburgh and Baltimore all week. I agree. I've wanted Miami all week too. I've wanted Dallas all week. I think you've wanted Pittsburgh and Baltimore all week. I have.

So you want to go with a throw a little wrinkle and just go New England plus four, take the Chiefs out? I think so. The eight and a half is such a tough number. Especially when it opened at six. I think part of it too is I personally don't feel the value in it because I bet it. Yeah.

Six and a half. And I'm like, eh, it doesn't like, eh. New England plus four. Wow. There is this, this is Monday football too, right? No,

Sunday night football. Let's do it, man. Let's take the fort. I'd rather, I'd rather get the points somewhere. Right. I really,

I really get a couple of points. Then the, the chiefs are just going to be every single dollar in this, in this whole world on the Chiefs this weekend. They're probably going to cover it, but I don't know. Division opponent. I just feel really strongly about the Texas. I think Pittsburgh.

I actually think Pittsburgh probably, I mean, maybe the Chiefs would be the one where where where I think I might even put the Chiefs instead of Pittsburgh. where I think... I might even put the Chiefs instead of Pittsburgh. Yeah, so to refresh, the Steelers are seven-point home favorites against Denver,

and the Chiefs are eight-and-a-half-point road... Right, they're road favorites. Where are they? This is a great teaser weekend by the way pittsburgh baltimore kansas city all within a few put them in a tease less than a field goal yeah chiefs are are uh eight and a half point favorites at uh at los angeles so that's what we're deciding against would we rather have the step the steelers favored by seven at home or mahomes favored by eight and a half over anyone anywhere.

Oh, jeez. I think I would personally feel better about the Chiefs than the Steelers. Right? I mean, Roethlisberger, we still haven't seen enough to feel totally confident. Denver was in that game. I don't know. I would feel more comfortable with the Chiefs, I think. Off of the extra rest, too. They're amazingly good off rest.

Let's do that. If you're good, because the Steelers were one of your early favorites, I would swap the Chiefs for them. I'm going to put the Chiefs in there. Let's do that. I think that you're right. The Kansas City, you can't pass on them right now. Yeah.

Yeah. Let's take the best Chiefs. I'm in so dallas miami baltimore new england kansas city so we have we have we have three of the three best coaches in the nfl we're betting on yeah i can live with mike mccarthy brian flores like we have the other ones yeah those others um all right so i'm gonna recap our plays here quickly so we have dallas four and a half point home favorites over atlanta we have the chiefs eight and a half point road favorites against the chargers we have the dolphins plus five and a half at home against

buffalo we have the ravens seven point road favorites, seven point road favorites against the Texans and the Patriots getting four points at Seattle on Sunday night football. Those are five. It's a it's an interesting board, buddy. I like it, man. We're going. Here's what we're going against. Dan Quinn, Tyrod Taylor, Josh Allen, Bill O'Brien and the Seahawks in September with no fans. Let's go.

Yeah, I like that. Let's go. Yeah. I like that we bet on good teams. I mean, Dallas is supposed to be good too. This one stood out to me. That one stood out to me the whole week because Atlanta just, I don't know, they're just terrible. If that turns into a shootout, I love Dallas. All right, let's do this. All right, we got Dallas, Dolphins, Ravens, Patriots.

I do not feel as good this week than I did last week. I'll tell you that. I don't either. I don't either. And hey, if anything changes, we're allowed to make an update to this and put it up on your Twitter

at Jeff Schwartz, right? I don't think so. This is the five we're in, right? And that's just like a weird entry or something. We're in for these five. We're doing it. This is it. We're in. All right, thank you just like a weird injury or something. We're in for these five. We're doing it. This is it. We're in.

All right. Thank you, everyone. We obviously 4-1 last week. Great starts. I hope to do the same this week. Get you guys some more money. Thank you for joining us. Big Ten is back.

Pac-12 coming back soon. Full end of the week. We bet on good teams and good coaches. I will take it. I'll take it, everyone. Have a great weekend. Talk to everyone on Tuesday morning. Until then, enjoy football all weekend. I'm Matt Ford. I'm Jeff Schwartz. Jeff Schwartz with the Smart on You podcast. Have a great weekend talk to everyone on tuesday morning until then enjoy football all weekend i'm matt ford i'm just short just short to smart on you podcast have a great weekend

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