Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - A Potential Week 18, "Joey Covers" and 5 Consensus NFL Week 5 Bets

Episode Date: October 8, 2020

We're four weeks into the NFL season and we got to see how the NFL handled its first COVID breakout. Geoff admits Matt Ford was right for once. Then he breaks down how Joe Burrow could cover over against the Ravens & jumps into Week 5 SuperContest lines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, October 8th. Welcome back to our Super Contest show we do every Thursday. It was a rough one last week. We'll talk about that in just a second, but I'd like to welcome in, as usual, Matt Ford. Matt, how are you, buddy? I'm good, man. One of these weeks we're going to be bragging about what a hot week we had. It's just a matter of time at this point, isn't it? Yes, it is. And we'll get into that in just a second, because I have some theories we need to talk about that we need to revisit. But first of all, we had another couple of positive COVID tests in Tennessee. They look like that game against the Bills this weekend will probably not happen. We had a player test positive on the Raiders. We had another player,

Stephon Gilmore, test positive on the Patriots. And look, guys, Matt, are you an infectious disease expert? I'm not. Okay. I'm not either. I don't pretend to be right now. I have read from reputable sources what the viral load is, how the virus spreads, how it can spread, transmission rates. I know all that stuff.

I've looked it up, but I'm still not an expert on it. I let the people in charge decide what the NFL is going to do. But we do this collective thing. We just freak the F out on social media. Anytime someone tests positive. One, we all know people are going to test positive. Two, and this is a saying my wife says to me all the time. She says, take a deep breath of acceptance, right?

When something happens, I'm stressed out about it. She says to me Just take a deep breath of acceptance, right? When something happens, I'm stressed out about it, it says to me, take a deep breath of acceptance because you cannot fix the thing that you want to fix now. And NFL fans, there's nothing we can do. The NFL has a plan. They have protocols put in place. They're about to fine the Tennessee Titans for not following the protocols.

They might make them forfeit a game for not doing that. They have everything in place. They've thought about everything. Everyone, please take a deep breath of acceptance that they know what they're doing and you do not know what you're talking about. It's much easier that way. Let it play out, right? There's no need to cancel season today. No need for that. I do not understand, Matt. Why does there just collective freak out? I just, I just, let's see what happens tomorrow. See what happens on Friday. See what happens on, on Saturday. Like just, we have to let this play out guys. There's

no decision can be made right now. I agree. I think it's the same feeling of people who are unfortunate enough to have like a really strong fear of flying of that feeling of like, Oh, I'm out of control. Like something's going to go wrong here. I think it's just that same impulse. And I will say like, no matter how much we tell ourselves this, like I'm not immune to this either. Like today I was thinking about how I should manage my fantasy trades and

whether it would make sense to, usually I try to consolidate my like, you know, B plus guys to get an A plus. And this year it's like, do I need more B plus guys to have some depth in case this thing gets crazy? Like that's, I think why people are so rattled is that we're so focused on the ritual and the control and all that stuff. And it's out of our hands and we just gotta, we just gotta roll with it and just enjoy

what we got each week. And I also think that people, and rightfully so, COVID can be scary, right? Like I don't have experience with it. I have on my wife's side of her work, she's a nurse. She said, I kind of know on that side about it. I had to test my daughter about two months ago. It was scary for 25 hours, not knowing she was sick.

I get being scared about it and I get that. But the idea of the NFL has not thought about extending to week 18, right? Or moving the playoffs back or finding ways to get these games in. I think it's ludicrous. Of course they've thought about extending to Week 18, right? Or moving the playoffs back. Or finding ways to get these games in. I think it's ludicrous. Of course they've thought about this. Sure.

But they don't want to do it. They're not going to create a Week 18 for one missed game. Sorry, Tennessee Titans fans. You don't have to forfeit it. It's not fair either, right? The Buffalo Bills get a win. Get a win, a W. How about the Steelers?

They have to move their game in their bye week. What about the Chiefs? What about the Chiefs who are in a race right now with the Bills for the one seed? The Bills just get gifted a win. I don't know what other way to do it, Matt. Like, unless you schedule this week 18, the Titans have to be punished. Like, is it – I saw someone suggest this.

Should the Steelers get the Titans draft pick? Like, is that fair? I don't know. I mean, the good news is – and you are alluding to this like the nfl has thought about this they've they had months to figure out what they wanted to do and presumably they have a better plan than like all of us on twitter just like venting our best idea um and look this isn't fair it's a global pandemic like i think one of the things with sports fans is we're used to hey if this isn't fair we're gonna have an instant replay review and we're gonna sort it out like this isn't that

like we're all in this and don't know what's gonna happen so um i trust that the nfl has thought through some contingencies and i just am glad we have football to talk about and hopefully i mean today it did feel like you know there was this rash of positives, today being Wednesday. So hopefully that just doesn't continue. Yeah, and let's just see what happens, guys. Deep breath of acceptance. So let's get to talking about football this weekend. Yeah, let's talk some football, Jeff. We're 9-10-1 after a bad weekend last week.

So maybe let's not talk about football. Let's not. Do you remember last week we talked about kind of the principles, right, of how you, over the long haul, how you have to kind of, the right way to do things, right? Home, dogs is a great way to go. You fade the public, right? All these things that I was taught,

the way to gamble, I know you were taught, we were at the same company, right? Like that's how you win money, gambling on the long run. It's very hard to do, right? To be that disciplined, to choose your spots,

not bet on every game. But Matt, I'm here to tell you, man. Uh--oh i don't think we can do this anymore buddy because it's not profitable these big favorites on the road especially cover all the time now they cover all the time last weekend depending what line you got right baltimore did not cover washington came down and covered at the end if you got the super contest line you covered if you got the one on sund, you didn't cover. That took a fluke interception. Otherwise, Baltimore, another team covers a 14-point spread on the road. So I look today, Matt, at which 14 teams believe on the NFL

that have zero or one win through four weeks. 14 of them. It's a lot. 14, okay? Wow. They're all in the NFC East. What? They're all in the NFC East.

I know. Denver and Cincinnati are 3-1 against the spread. Fantastic, okay? Wow. They're all in the NFC East. What? They're all in the NFC East. I know. Denver and Cincinnati are 3-1 against the spread. Fantastic, right? And we'll get to the Bengals a little bit. I hope that you like the Bengals like I like the Bengals this week. The rest of the teams, the 12 teams right now, Matt, against the spread, 11, 34, and 3. Wow.

Well. And the thing is, okay, did this change after four weeks? 34-3. Wow. Well. Like, you just can't. Like, and the thing is, okay, did it change after four weeks? I don't know because do I trust? Now, the Giants are on the road. But do I trust the Jets at home getting seven points? How do I trust that? They have a backup quarterback.

That's, you know, throw that game out maybe. But we'll get to your team, Washington football team. Like, they're getting seven at home. How do I trust in this season Washington's going to cover that game? And any other year, we'd be like, Washington, bet it, do it. Who cares? Doesn't matter. They're not good, but seven's too many points. And so we might have to change, Matt.

I'm throwing that out there to you. Yeah. Look, you make a great argument. What I will say is these things work for a reason. And the other view of this is it's gone one way for four weeks. You know, there was no preseason. The defenses in particular feel like they're still way behind. At some point, it's going to correct back.

So I think I think we don't really need to overthink this too much. I think the one thing we just need to say is no Jets, no Giants. And then from there, if we just agree on that, I think we're going to be fine. The rest of it, we've been okay, but it feels like we've been on the Jets or Giants every single week. I know. And they've screwed us each time. So that's my proposal. I mean, even heading back to last year, I think the double-digit favorites on the road have covered like 17 to 19 games.

It's just ridiculous. Yeah, last year, I remember having this same thought at some point. Yeah, so maybe it's a new norm in the NFL where we just have really bad teams and really good teams. And the disparity is so large to where you have to bet the road favorite. All right, let's get into our plays for the week. I like a lot. And by the way, we're going to have maybe a segment built in called where Matt Ford was smarter than Jeff Schwartz because you,

you, I was wrong with the bangles. You loved them last week. I threw him out on Friday or Saturday when there was some injury news. And, uh, we went to lines instead. Uh,

by the way, you have to check back on my Twitter on Saturday. We put out the official, we might throw a team out for injuries. Just letting you guys know. Um, and you were right and I was wrong. So I wouldn't credit that. So, uh might throw a team out for injuries. Just letting you guys know. Yep. And you were right. And I was wrong.

So I wouldn't credit that. Wow. Savor this moment. Like clip it off. I'm just going to put it like on my phone and maybe set it as like an alarm. So every day I'm reminded of the one time I was smart about football. One time. One time.

You were right. Four years ago. All right. Let's start the Thursday night game. Let's do it. So that's Tampa Bay at Chicago. Tampa Bay, a three and a half point road favorite. Opened at three.

Who do you like? I mean, I would just stay away from this game. I mean, I just, you know, the Bears, I didn't terribly like them last weekend. I know you loved them last weekend. And partly because I thought we'd see Nick Foles like we saw Nick Foles, which was not a good quarterback. He's not been a good quarterback outside of two regular season games the last three years. He hasn't been good. He wasn't good again.

And the Bears' defense is really good. The Tampa Bay's down Godwin. They're down O.J. Howard, obviously, now. Then they're down Shady McCoy as well. They're just beat up on a short week, on the road. I don't want to touch this game man i don't either that three and a half is begging you to take the bears it is but you know i think we can find five better ones than this i'm with you buddy all right let's move on to one that i think we're gonna have some discussion about and that is your hometown carolina panthers

uh one and a half points dogs at Atlanta, Atlanta favored again. They are a winless team. Yeah. What do you think? Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide.

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Results vary. Non-endorsement. And by the way, this is the line open at three and a half. I bet that's at three and a half on Sunday. Atlanta one and three against the spread. I think Carolina wins this game, by the way. Teddy Bridgewater, 29-9

against the spread as a starter. We talked about this all through the season. But here's a couple things just stat-wise. Atlanta's allowed the most big plays in the NFL in defense. They're 31st against us against the past.

They're 28th in the red zone. And Carolina's defense, excuse me, Carolina's offense, we're talking about offense versus defense right now. Carolina's offense has been better without Christian McCaffrey. They're rushing for more yards.

Teddy Bridgewater right now is in his career, career high, completion percentage, passing yards a game, efficiency. Like he is playing some great football right now. in his career, career high, completion percentage, passing yards a game, efficiency. Like he is playing some great football right now. And Atlanta is just not good right now.

Turn to the Panthers defense. The Panthers defense, the first two weeks, they were 26th in expected points added EPA. I love that stat, right? Just kind of a good old, I don't, I sort of, I understand how it works, but I sort of don't, but it's a good stat to determine efficiency essentially um the last two weeks they've now moved to 15th they're doing a good job on defense they're young but they're getting better and i just don't trust the falcons i like carolina here to win this game outright but i'll take the point in half definitely uh this is

a fun money line bet it's probably around even money um yeah i mean you mentioned teddy bridgewater i'll do you one better 18 and four against the spread as an underdog in his last 22 he's he's money and look sometimes i think what i told myself this week is we've been overthinking some stuff when you watched atlanta on monday night so a they're coming off short week b they quit like they flat out had no answer for Robert Tanyan for all of those you know ancillary Packers receivers and Green Bay just ran all over them they Atlanta completely disorganized on offense with Julio Jones banged up you know he played a little bit and then Calvin Ridley just was a complete non-factor a team that can just go

that quickly to just completely out of a game really worries me and i think this could be the uh this could be cyanura to dan quinn it could finally happen after this there's no reason you bet the falcons in this game i know the line is steamed down two points which is not great i mean like i think we're not getting much value here but i think they went outright so i'm i'm i'm carolina board. Yep, this will keep moving, I bet. So we're getting a decent number, even though it moved quite a bit. Okay, one down.

And by the way, I want to mention that at the Super Contest, the two games that are up in the air right now aren't even on the board. That's Buffalo, Tennessee and Denver, New England. So we're not even going to discuss those unless you had planned to. I guess I should have run that by you at some point, but we can't even bet on that. I mean, I didn't, I didn't prep for them because they're not on the board. Yeah. So they're, they're out. Okay. Next up, let's talk

about another one of your favorite teams. The Kansas city chiefs are 12 and a half point home favorites to the Raiders. Yeah. I'm taking the Chiefs minus 12.5 here. You don't like it? Go ahead. Too many points? Okay. Let me get my... Okay, here we go. So Chiefs have covered, we know, 11 in the last 12.

Andy Reid is 14-2 against the Raiders, which doesn't matter to the spread, but here's the reason why. The last three games, they played each other. The Chiefs have beaten the Raiders by a combined score of 103-22. The games are not close, and the Chiefs' defense is better now than it's been in any of the past two seasons.

They're a better team now than they were when they played the last couple of years. And the Raiders are not very good. They're 30th on defense, they're 30th in DVOA, the 30th in points scored. They're just not a good football team. That's a ton of points. I get it, man. I understand this. But for some reason, there's a mental block with Carr and the Chiefs, and I'm going to ride it with 12 and a half. So let me lay this stat out that I'm going to reference a few times. The first thing is the Chiefs,s obviously everyone's talking about this the three games in 11 days thing they just came off of a short week against new england which shouldn't

really matter but then they have another short week ahead of this against and they're going to the bills oh yeah so they're gonna lose that they're gonna lose that game by the way i'm telling you right now so they're either gonna lose that game or they're gonna like barely squeak by in this game or that or they blow out and then lose that game i feel like it's going to be one or the other but here's a stat that i found really interesting so proportionally road division dogs cover more at the beginning of the season because these lines get inflated it's 56 of the time they cover which as you know jeff like if you're hitting that that's a winning percentage over the long term so So this just feels like one of those games where the Chiefs don't have to blow them out.

I know they did twice last year, but this is sort of like a survival game to me. And the Raiders, like, yeah, they know they got blown out twice last year. I'm a little wary of the 12 and a half. And frankly, the fact that it was 13 everywhere and it came down to 12 and a half kind of makes me feel like the sharps are going to weigh in on this thing as the week goes on so i'm a little worried about it well the sharps have we don't i mean the money they're they're probably gonna bet the raiders just to just but i i'm just going back to my theory man about good teams beating bad teams and they're kicking the shit out of these teams and i mean you know the chiefs even on a bad day score 28 points and the raiders defense is is a bad day, score 28 points. And the Raiders' defense is terrible.

They're going to score 35 points in this game. The question is, do the Raiders score 24 and cover? I'm okay with putting it as a maybe because it's a lot of points. But I think Casey is going to blow them out. But I'm okay with putting it a maybe. We've got other games to talk about, too. Let's put a maybe. If we couldn't potentially be a betting show and both of us be like,

yep, Chiefs, 12 and a half. Let's lock it in. That's correct. This is going back to the principal stuff. That's right. It's not a good bet. It's not. But I get the logic and I'm willing to hear it out.

Next up is the Los Angeles Rams. Sean McVay coming back home to D.C. Rams favored by seven over the football team. coming back home to DC Rams favored by seven over the football team. Why don't we start this actually with a conversation about Dwayne Haskins who got benched today. He's now the third string quarterback. He will not even probably be active on Sunday, which means Alex Smith will be. It's the Kyle Allen era in DC. I obviously have some thoughts as that's my hometown team, but Jeff, I wanted to give you the first crack at this. So Kyle Allen last year was dead last by pro football focus and quarterbacks had at least 50 snaps last season. He was like 27th in EPA.

He's not a good quarterback. This change just screams like I do not like Dwayne Haskins. I never liked Dwayne Haskins. I'm getting rid of Dwayne Haskins, right? Like, I don't understand this move. It doesn't make him a better football team. It just makes him a team not led by Dwayne Haskins. You're a Washington football fan.

What do you make of this move? So fellow University of Maryland alum, Torrey Smith said something smart. He said on Twitter that it was sort of a perfect storm against Haskins. I'm just going to quote him. Number one, the new regime didn't draft him. Two, it's a new offense with no offseason.

Three, the Washington team can compete right now in the NFC East, which is hilarious. And four, there's this other quarterback who knows the system better as far as understanding the offense. Now, I agree. Kyle Allen is not good. I'm a little conflicted here. But Ron Rivera said something pretty interesting which was he said that the fans can't see how frustrated the players are because they feel like they have a chance that some of these games and haskins hasn't delivered which like

frankly is is not coach speak like that's not a thing you hear often when a coach gets up to the podium so i look i trust him but it's obviously not uh the long-term solution yeah i just think that they suddenly feel like hey we actually can compete in some of these games and haskins hasn't really got us it's kind of i'm kind of bummed because i like him i don't know man it's not just all dwayne haskins um and yes the perfect storm right no off-season program a short training camp but four weeks to bail on him like that he He hasn't had full season under his belt. He hasn't played 16 games in his career as a starting quarterback. And the news, by the way, Alex

Smith, second string it appears, which again, I never thought he'd see the field, but it appears he is. All right, let's get to this game. I love the Rams minus seven. I just if you look at, let me pull everything out. The Rams are second, by the way, in offensive DVOA. The Washington football team is fourth. The Rams are second, by the way, in offensive DVOA.

The Washington football team is fourth in defensive DVOA, by the way. But that is mostly because they're past defense. And weirdly enough, they're allowing 32 points per game in the last three games, but fourth in DVOA. I'm not quite sure why that is. It's such a weird thing. They're 18th against the run, which we know the Rams do very well. But here is why I like the Rams in this game.

You talked about the renewed Washington offense. Maybe. I don't think so. I don't think so. That's generous. But the Rams had their stinker last weekend, right? And we stayed away from that game. We could both feel it coming, right?

When you have a stinker like that, you come out the next week, especially against a bad team, and beat the shit out of them. And I think the Rams are going to go to Washington this weekend and beat the shit out of the Washington football team. Like, that's just, they're a good football team, right? They're in the top five of DVOA, I believe. I can pull up the exact numbers to make sure I'm right on this. They are a good football team.

And they're good on offense. They're solid on defense. And they're going to come into Washington and beat their ass. And I just, I'm going with the Rams. I, again, it breaks all the principal rims are actually 11th and DVO after they

adjusted for schedule last couple of weeks. They were seventh last week. I just need to go in there and steamroll them. I'm up for this. The thing that worries me is Chase Young, who is the highest graded rookie on defense according to PFF this year. Without him, he's been limited.

He missed last week, obviously. The defense that week won, him and Montez Sweat just dominated that Eagles O-line. And the Rams have a much better scheme for that. And Whitworth is playing really well to work tackle. That's the old man from hard knocks. It's nice to see him at a high level. Yeah, I don't mind this one at all.

I think it's, I don't want to say definitely yet, because obviously, you know, taking the big road fave, but Kyle Allen against the Rams, I don't love it. I'll put it, I'm going to put a hard, I'm going to put that hardly on the list, by the way. I love this but well we'll see what else we got we can we can squeak out here go ahead all right next up uh we've got jacksonville plus six at the newly the newly bill o'brien free houston texans that was

that was a shock who's the interim coach um you know i think that we were seeing word come out that jj watt and him got in a disagreement, which makes sense. Something had to trigger that, right? Like it had to trigger that he was just abruptly fired 0-4. So interesting, Matt. What do you think the against the spread record

the last 32 games with a new head coach with a feel a new head coach a fire head coach mid-season the next game after that the last 32 times what what would your actually excuse me the last 36 times what would your against the spread record you think it is i'm guessing around 514 and 22 i thought it'd be higher i thought you know like to your point that kyle allen right like a renewed offense renewed team, but some of these teams just stink. Some of them just stink. It doesn't matter who the head coach is. So with that thought, I don't have an opinion on this game. I can't be convinced to bet Jacksonville. I think I don't want no part of Houston here. Uh, how do you feel about this game? Do you have a strong

feeling? No, I don't. Uh, there think this is the get-right game for Houston probably, but I don't trust them at all. I think Jacksonville is still a hair overrated because they got a fluke. If it makes you feel any better, 38% of the bets are on Jacksonville, 95% of the money. They've got some reverse line movement from 6.5 to 6. Yeah, same here. Hard pass. They've got some reverse line movement from six and a half to five. I mean, six and a half to six. Yeah. Hard pass.

Okay. Let's move to, let's see what we got next. Next one is another kind of stinker here. It's the Jets plus seven at Arizona. I'm going to just go ahead and spoil my surprise here. I have no feel for this at all. I don't trust Arizona. Do you believe me here?

I mean, the Jets are so bad. It's like... And Joe Flacco starting? Oh, God. I mean, is that actually a downgrade at this point? Arizona's been, by the way, kind of a bad team this year. Like, I thought they were going to be good,

and they just... They're 23rd in DVOA. They're 25th on offense, 19th in defense. By the when isaiah simmons was drafted from clemson i kind of said like hey guys you know i don't i don't know right he's a jack of all trades is he is a master of none like that just and he's had trouble so far right trying to find a spot on this team i mean i lean arizona at home minus seven but i don't think that I want to touch this. Yeah, I don't either. I, yeah, I feel like we can find five better ones in this. That's a pass. Let's move to Philly at Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh coming off of their weird out of nowhere buy and Pittsburgh's laying the seven. What do you think? I want to bet Pittsburgh, but I probably shouldn't. Keep going. I just think they're just much better. And they're off a bye. And the Eagles are beat up.

The Steelers are healthy. And the Eagles' offense, yeah, they looked a little bit better against San Francisco, but not that much better. I mean, the Niners benched their backup quarterback, played a third stringer, and lost by five with all those guys hurt. The Steelers' defense is third in DVOA. They're really freaking good, and the Eagles are beat up. Nothing here shows me that Carson Wentz is going to score more than 14, 17 points.

And the Eagles' defense isn't very good. I don't really understand them. Philly's 30th in DVOA. The number's high. Seven's a lot for the the steelers that sometimes kind of bullshit their way through games that against bad teams but this is not that game because it's a it's a it's an inner you know state game right there's gonna be a lot of juice for this game and there's fans i believe for the first time back in the stands in pittsburgh as

well this weekend um yep i i like pittsburgh minus seven how do you feel about it i like it too um the main reason is is um philly's got such a problem on their offensive line with all the injuries lane johnson is probably going to is probably not going to play this week obviously they've lost peters and a bunch of guys on that offensive line and pittsburgh has the top pass rush in the nfl um pittsburgh or sorry philly has 11 guys on ir at the moment and we and that doesn't include miles sanders who left the game early last week um tomlin 11 and 5 straight up off of a bison so 7 when he took over pittsburgh's gonna win uh and i'm pretty comfortable yeah that's a lot of points eagles also gets a spread

um the last 20 games or 7 and 13 they're actually they're actually against the spread the last 20 games or seven and 13. They're actually, they're actually against the spread. They're 13 and 23 since they won the super bowl. Huh? Yeah. It doesn't surprise me. It's like people just want the teams they can trust. And I feel like everyone was just like,

well, good coach, good quarterback. Let's go with Philly. I think they're probably, I'm good with putting Pittsburgh in here. Yeah. I like that off that buy too um okay

so let's put them in the contenders uh next up is cincinnati at baltimore baltimore 12 and a half point favorites another one where it got bet down i mean we're not getting like the best of the number here but um i like the bangles to cover this game. Man, what happened to you? Why? Because this is the same thing. It's Baltimore last week, you know, covered or they barely covered maybe against the terrible Washington team where they benched the quarterback at the week after. Lamar Jackson, 4-10 against the spread is a home favorite since he's been a starter. That's why I said the Bengals.

I just said the Bengals. What do you mean when I'm at it again? Oh, I thought you said Baltimore. Then let's go. Cincinnati, absolutely. I said Bengals. Nick, did I not say, the producer, did I not say the Bengals? No, for sure I said the Bengals.

I'm in on the Bengals. It's like one of my favorite plays this week. Oh, perfect. I thought I said Bengals. I'm sorry. I'm like, what are you talking about? I love the Bengals. Okay, well, good, because I thought you said the Ravens.

And the play here is clearly the Bengals. They should call Joe Burrow Joey Covers, because he's covered every single game in the NFL so far. And again, this harkens back to that road division dogs thing. 56% of the games they cover in September, October, and November. This is a huge line for a Baltimore team that, frankly, is just not that impressive. They beat Cleveland in week one with that new coach and no preseason. They blew out Washington and Houston and lost to Casey.

Are they that good? And you know, the large accent knee thing's interesting. He didn't practice on Wednesday. I don't know how much to read into that, but I mean, that's not, it's not good. No, no, it's not. This is another where it's like, everybody's putting way too much trust. And frankly, I think this goes back to that sentiment you were talking about at the very top where these big numbers keep getting covered.

And I don't think Baltimore is the team that is going to continue to do that. Cincy is one of my favorites of the week. I love the Bengals here too. So interesting, Bengals have covered four of the last five meetings in this series. that we could have gotten a few hours before the super contest um okay next one i have a feeling i know how this conversation is going to go miami dolphins plus eight and a half at san francisco we need a sound effect for games i just don't want to spend a single second talking about oh but we have to this is the official official podcast of betting ryan fit Fitzpatrick is a huge dog, isn't it? So just, it's just a roller coaster. I don't like, it's just, it's so like, I guess, I mean, the problem for me with doing this

is we're recording this on Wednesday night is I don't know the health of, of Jimmy Garoppolo yet. Right. I mean, do we know if he's playing or not playing yet? He, I believe he practiced, he's supposed to be on track to play. That's clearly like the thinking behind that line. So obviously, if that changes, this whole analysis would change. But my understanding is he's on track to play.

Look, we got burned last week, right? We were texting each other. You were so mad because the Dolphins kept kicking field goals against Seattle. And they kicked five field goals. They should have covered that game. Like they almost covered against Seattle and Russell Wilson got them. Like Miami's defense stinks, but they're worse than playing those deep balls. Garoppolo or Nick Mullins or whoever isn't throwing deep to, you know, George Kittle

50 times in this game. Like it's going to be dink and dunk crap that they do all the time. I don't understand why anyone would would be comfortable taking san francisco here this i don't want to take this i just play i don't know if i trust miami though i don't know if i like any any better than the picks we have so far i dude so let me talk about san francisco quickly cake schedule this year like unbelievable schedule they their hardest game was the eagles or the cardinals because they played both the new york teams and smoked them and they lost to the Eagles and the Cardinals. Like this also after this game, the 49ers, this is the next seven weeks, Rams, Pats,

Seahawks, Packers, Saints, Rams, Buffalo in a row. This is the get right game. This isn't the blow the doors off somebody game. Like this is get everybody healthy, right? Everybody healthy and back. I don't think that they're going to run away with this at all. Last weekend, I told you that, you know, I was going to start the show. I told you I was going to trust you more. So I'll reluctantly put the Dolphins in here for now.

We'll see where the rest of the picks go. I mean, you feel strongly about it last week. That obviously would have won us some money. So let's put the Dolphins in there. Man, this is like... I can't tell if this is like an amazing development for me or my own new nightmare, because now I actually am going to be responsible

for some of these. I mean, I just... I don't have a feel for this game, but if, I mean, if you feel strongly about it, I just don't. The 49ers should not be eight and a half point favorites over anyone at the state that this roster is in is, is how I see it. And who doesn't love a little Fitz magic driving to backdoor at the end of the game. It's the best. It's my favorite part of like three 45 every Sunday.

It's so much fun. It's frustrating. All right um all right to the next game all right next game we have is oh god the giants plus nine and a half at dallas oh boy what a stinker an nfc is classic here uh what do you think oh i don't want any part of this game you know dallas is oh and four against his bread this year you know the giants have scored three offensive touchdowns this year i mean i i just i don't want any of this either but howard how is dallas favored by 10 or anyone they should the plays the giants i just don't i'm not betting on the giants

yeah we've that we've made a rule no giants uh we i can't do it anymore i i'm done they've broken they've broken our the giants are 100 to play here i'm with you look if you're betting this game it's the giants it's really the over two yeah i i agree with that but uh can we agree that we're not touching the giants until they prove they can cover spread okay no no all right uh so if you if you bet that one bet the giants but also don't bet that one by any means um okay next uh indie one and a half point road favorites at cleveland's interesting line interesting game here so i really want to bet the browns in this game but i don't think I can right now. And the reason why is the Colts' defense is really good.

And if you look at it right now, I'm going to pull up all the numbers just to make sure I got these right. You know, the Browns have a lot of their success this year because of their rushing attack, right? We know the rushing attack is one of the best in the NFL. And their passing game, though, is not as explosive, right? Their 30th explosive plays through the pass, and only 19th in DVOA not as explosive, right? Their 30th explosive plays through the pass and only 19th in DVOA in the past, right?

The Colts defense is first in the NFL in DVOA, the first in the NFL in EPA, the first in the NFL on third down. They're a really good defense and I think they're going to key on the run game for the Browns and then stifle the pass game. I don't think the Browns are going to get a lot of points in this game. I actually like Baker Mayfield's under total this week,

the best out of maybe any bet for the whole week. I don't like this place. I don't think the Browns have scored enough points. It's good. It's a good take. I mean, I would lean Cleveland's here. Look,

I'm, I'm that guy who just can't. I can't get off of the why is everyone like Indy train? I'm with you. I don't get it. When Philip Rivers throws a ball, it looks like he's throwing a goddamn wiffle ball. Like, he looks so bad to me, but they continue to win these games. Granted, it helps that they played the Jets, Jags, Vikings, and Bears in their first four weeks.

They played Dalvin Cook once. Yeah, but the Browns have played the Bengals. They got blown up by the Ravens and played the Bengals, the Washington football team, and the Cowboys. Sure. Noted. I just think that there's something different in Cleveland. Cleveland has not, or sorry, Indy has not played played no one's played a rushing attack like we've seen with uh with cleveland this year uh it seems like cleveland's defense uh they're still top 10 in dva

they seem to get beat on those downfield passes um that's not going to happen with indy here uh i would lean cleveland's but i you know i'm not going to beat the drum for them uh and you know what you know what worries me about this game too is a ton of public money on Cleveland. I just, I don't like that. It's a darling team and a home dog. That's going to happen. It makes me feel uncomfortable.

Yeah. Anytime the world's aligned on Cleveland is usually a time to bail. Okay, so that's, I think, a pass. So we've got two games left here um interested interested what you think here so this is the sunday night game minnesota seven point road dogs at seattle um what do you got oh boy you're gonna hate me for this one i don't know but oh where do you think i'm going here? Let me make you guess. I think you're going to Seattle. I am going to Seattle. Yeah.

Let's go. The Vikings suck. It's very simple. Seattle's good. And the Vikings suck. It's that simple of a bet. Like Seattle is going to score 35 points in this game. Are the Vikings going to score 28?

No, they're not. It's that simple, right? Like I know I could throw a bunch of stats out there you I'm sure I could find a bunch of them but Minnesota for some reason is 13th in DVOA I do not know why they don't play like a 13 ranked DVOA team um they beat a hapless Texas team last weekend and Texans were driving to tie the game like they're just sounds just better like it's that simple seattle's offense is unbelievable right now um and their defense is just kind of plodding along but whatever who cares russell who and the vikings is going to stop this passing attack i don't know um i i was so confused by this line because it's open at nine and then all

this money came in on minnesota a few things about minnesota first of all since 2018 they are dead last in the nfl against the spread after a win they're a team that people like to back when they're hot but that's burned them they're 5 13 and 1 jeff that's not good uh remember we do this every year we forget kirk cousins in prime time 8 15 and 1 against the spread that is not good he is he consistently undelivers or no sorry that's straight up he had a tie in prime time uh he is not good in prime time games and look this is 7 this isn't this isn't 13 where's the respect for seattle here like they're a much better team i think that this is going to be one of those games

that lingers at 7 then all of a sudden it's going to drift back to like eight and a half because all the sharps are going to hammer it uh pretty soon that would be my guess yeah i i would love to put seattle in here and um there's actually i don't ever give teasers on here but i'll tell you what uh a seahawks rams steelers teaser get them all but to one that just feels like you're stealing money. And you throw in like a Cowboys over, because just bet the over every game, because why would you not bet the over every game? And you got a 14 teaser right there.

But I mean, are you telling me Seattle is going to lose to Minnesota? The Rams are going to lose to Washington? I mean, the Steelers obviously is the one team that could lose in that, but I don't give teasers out very often. It's on my notes as like a really good teaser this week. Seattle, Rams, Pittsburgh, don't give to you that very often. It's on my notes. It's like a really good teacher this week, Seattle Rams, Pittsburgh, all get them to one.

And then you have to win the game for you to, to cast your teaser. I love it, Jeff. I love that. Co-signed. Let's hit the Monday night game quick. The chargers and your boy,

Justin Herbert, who like congratulations, man, continues to continues to be great. He is a seven and a half point dog at New Orleans. The rejuvenated Saints. What do you think? I don't have a feel for this game.

I mean, we don't know if Michael Thomas is going to play. You know, I would lean the Chargers and the points here because the Saints defense is still kind of suspect, in my opinion. And, you know, Herbert has done enough in these games to cover um you obviously look great last week uh but i just i don't like it any more than any of the games we have written down so far yeah i agree it's a pass the thomas thing is so huge and i feel like if this got down to six and a half i'd be interested but that's a six and a half is like your own bet i don't know if i feel better than any of these other ones. Yeah, but it's seven and a half, so it's not even who cares. It doesn't matter. Yeah. Um, okay. So we've got a pretty

good list here, Jeff. Do you, uh, do you want to give people a recap? Yeah. So we have Carolina plus one and a half. We have the Rams minus seven, Pittsburgh minus seven, Bengals plus 12 and a half Seattle minus seven. And then we have the dolphins plus eight that you really liked. I'll throw the chiefs out of there and minus 12 and a half even though i think they cover but you're right that's just that's not why you don't come to this podcast for us about the chiefs minus 12 and a half um i feel great about those five dude yeah i do too um what would you take out for miami i would you um i really like Miami but if the the Rams won I guess the Rams are like the shakiest play obviously because they're road favorites um coming west to east but I I don't know I would defer to you um you you don't want to be on the hook for the uh for the uh for the fans on twitter look i

there's a always a fine line i walk between the former player and me betting games and then kind of like looking at it from the gambling side the sharper side yeah the rams is a public play as can be yep but i just i'm telling you man when you have that that shitty game and you play another bad team and you're a good football team, the Rams are a good football team, you just kick their ass. I told you the first time, well, this doesn't even matter, part of this, but like Kyle Allen, it's not a good quarterback. I don't know what the difference is going to make. No one's open.

It's not like they're just going to magically have guys open. And what if he gets hurt? That Alex Smith is coming in off that leg. He didn't barely practice all season, all offseason. I just – it doesn't feel like the Washington football team is set up for success here. This feels very much like Rams up 21-0 in the first quarter type of game. They come out on fire.

Yeah. Let's definitely lock that in. The other ones that we could consider – the other weakest one I would maybe say is Pittsburgh playing the seven. But we both like that though. If we both like it, we shouldn't get rid of it yeah we both love the panthers we both love the bangles and we both love the seahawks so the panthers is the worst line of them all because that was at three and a half to start the week yeah so i'm good with carolina rams pittsburgh bangles and the seattle seahawks minus seven some it's really a very public card this

week it is well not the ravens that's a nice one and the seattle one like i feel like every week i'm like seattle's gonna regress and then they absolutely murder their opponents so maybe that could bite us this week but i i love that one with cousins of primetime let's fly um they uh yeah they they yeah i'm with you there all right all right guys we're gonna do better this week okay we're gonna do better we're gonna come back here next week and say hey look we have made you some money we've made you smarter if you feel like if you feel like fading us please let me know at jeff schwartz i'd love to know if you faded me this weekend i have no problem with that that's not a problem.

You can do as you please. But I really appreciate the rating, the reviews, the subscribes, the notes about the podcast. We're growing. I appreciate that. And have a great weekend, everyone. It's football weekend. Let's have a great time.

Talk to everyone later.