Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - AFC South, NFC South Win Totals & Prop Bets

Episode Date: August 20, 2020

Geoff is discussing total win predictions for the AFC South, NFC South, and how the NFL is finally talking about having games in a bubble. Also, how much better will Tom Brady do than Jamies Winston, all of that and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday august 20th we're back with win total predictions for the afc south and the nfc south and that means we're covering the most talked about team in south florida plus we'll give you a couple special props along the way which have been very very fun but first matt ford a playoff bubble will be discussed i cannot wait to talk about that as well this is jeff schwartz is smarter than you. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. Matt, you are trolling me today. I'm a Lakers fan, and you're wearing a Portland Trailblazers old school throwback NBA jam shirt. Now, it is Dame and McCollum.

This is a direct shot at me, and I do appreciate the troll job by you, though. Thanks, Jeff. I learned from the best in Gabe. I used to work on CJ McCollccollum's podcast so i i feel like i can actually wear this with some pride uh what do you think it's kind of lakers uh turn around boy i mean they look great they can't make baskets i mean the goal is to put the brown basketball into the the cylinder and they're very bad at that right now outside of sorry can you break that down a little more slowly so there's a basketball okay now in the nba there's a line it's called a three

point line it's very important i see and you have to shoot the ball from behind that line and make it go into the basket and the lakers are very bad at that they're the worst in the nba in the bubble doing that and it did not get better against the trailblazers and um there's your basketball uh that's your you know i made you smarter about basketball everybody so before we get to our win totals which is uh god these divisions oh they're not they're not the best for win totals let's talk about something that broke today and some talk about nfl playoff bubble and i absolutely love this idea the nfl is talking about making it through the season, which again, I hope they do.

17 weeks of the season, 16 games. You have your 14 playoff teams, Matt, and they go into a bubble and they finish out the rest of the season in that bubble. I love the idea. It can easily work. But Matt, if you've made it for 17 weeks, why go into a bubble then?

It's a good question. I mean, you guys were talking on Wednesday or on Monday. You guys were talking on Tuesday about the potential for fans in the stands. And like all of a sudden, you know, let's say optimistically that there are some fans in the stands by playoff time. All of a sudden, that kind of throws that out of whack. I mean, you were talking about the Lakers.

Like I, I don't know if they would be playing as poorly without or in front of the Staples center crowd. It's hard to tell. So I'm curious, like if you, does that benefit any team potentially? Like,

is there any good that couldn't come out of that for anybody? Well, it would benefit. I think the visiting team a lot more than the home team, especially if weather's involved. Because look, if you do a bubble, you're going to probably Vegas, quite honestly. You're going to Vegas and you're renting two hotels

and the teams are playing in Vegas. You're playing in that turf field. You just run through games, right? Or you go to Los Angeles and you play at SoFi Stadium. You play a game in the Coliseum. Whatever you want to do, you quarantine in a zillion hotels in LA. Or you do Dallas.

Those are the three cities, in my opinion, that would make this work. And yeah, so if you are Kansas City and Baltimore and the Packers and you are having cold weather home playoff games against Southern teams, what if Tampa had to go to Green Bay in the playoffs? That is mitigated now by playing in a dome in Las Vegas. But if the goal is to make it to the Super Bowl, I understand why they're talking about this. And I like that they're doing this.

They're thinking ahead about what might happen. And say what you want about the NFL, Matt. They've done a good job with handling COVID so far. They have. And I'm really encouraged just a plan the fact that they're talking about it a few weeks ago i'm sure i think you felt the same way where it felt like they were just kind of crossing their fingers but it doesn't feel like that anymore and the early returns with so few guys in the uh covid on the covid lists or

whatever they're calling it uh it's great it's been um it's been it's been great to see so just quick update on on the bubble. There's some other stuff too, like no cheerleaders, no silent reporters. I don't know if I can live with myself not knowing what a coach thinks at halftime anymore. They're still doing it in the NBA. It's so unnecessary. And I just want to preface by saying that this is not a knock at silent reporters. They do a good job.

It's a tough job. But it's just that those halftime interviews are so hey coach coach you get you just gave up a score what do you do different in the second half coach like what we just play better i mean like there's nothing that's great but i will tell you mike leach mike leach who the pirate of the palouse now down in mississippi state he would try to outwit the song he would try to run and beat them like to the locker room. And there was a reporter who covers the team who I cover. I talked to her

on the Pac-12 Network. She said she would like take her heels off and like have to try to catch them up. Like he would know she's in heels and try to skirt by her and miss the sideline reporter. So there's, it's fun. But those are gone. No cheerleaders. Yeah, of course. They're going to limit all the game day exposure they can.

I think they're going to play. I think they'll play as long as they can, and it might be a while. I hope so. All right, Matt, let's get to the meat of the podcast, the win total predictions. We thank you guys for following along. We had some interaction last week with the Lions because I think they're the candidate for worst to first team.

And we'll talk about all the teams now in the AFC South and the NFC South. The way this is going to go, Matt and I will alternate picks. The picks we take at the top of the podcast are the ones that we feel most comfortable in. And we will let you know if we personally have made this bet. It's very important here, right, to tell you guys if we're doing this for, quote, unquote, entertainment, we're giving you our preview, or we're actually gambling on these picks. And I'll start here, Matt. I am making this pick. I have made this pick let's hear panthers carolina panthers and i

hate starting on a downer because i feel like the last couple of shows we've been overs to start off with we've been excited but out of the eight teams in these divisions this is by far the best bet carolina panthers under five and a half wins. All right, look, we talk about this ad nauseum. This is a weird offseason. It's a non-traditional offseason. This benefits veteran teams with veteran coaches. The Panthers lose almost 50% of their production from last season, right? They've lost all their quarterbacks from last year, obviously.

They've lost Luke Keekly. They've lost a ton of players. They lost Greg Olson. Enter Teddy Bridgewater. They drafted seven defensive players in the draft. A brand new coaching staff. Matt Ruhle has not coached the NFL in 15 years. And when he was, he was like a tight ends coach for the Giants.

This just screams growing pains and issues with a young defense, brand new to the NFL, new head coach, new OC, new defense coordinator, and new starting quarterback. That, to me, is a recipe for an utter disaster. And look, McCaffrey got signed, okay? We talked about this on the podcast when it happened. His best games are when they lose. So you can't say well you know Christian

McCaffrey sure and Curtis Samuel is coming on he might be he might come on strong um I get that but their offensive line still is kind of like up and down again they lost Luke Keekly no way to replace him their defense is just okay now they of course if the draft picks all pan out yes but lastly Matt they play in a tough division. The Tampa's going to be close to 10 wins. The Orange will be close to 10 wins. Atlanta will be close to 10 wins. And I think the Panthers are in line.

I'm going to use them for my prop later on for worst record in the NFL. I was wondering if you were going to go there. As a Christian McCaffrey fantasy owner in multiple leagues, it's nice to hear that he will perform well, even when they lose. According to the athletic, they have the youngest defense in over a decade. So they're really going to struggle. I agree with the new coach.

It's the weird preseason. They're going to have a tough time. I want to add one more thing. I'm going to end on a positive on my take here. Teddy Bridgewater is an against the spread god okay he's 31 and 9 in his career against the spread if he's thrown one pass in a game unbelievable unbelievable so the panthers might be might you know might might be a 13 point dog week one bet the panthers bet the panthers they do a great job recovering as far as he does

in his career but of course he's had in his career great defenses right minnesota and new orleans was playing very well in defense last year we'll get to them in a little bit um but i i'm going with the under here matt i think you're with me yeah that's a good play no argument there um for my first pick jeff this one this one baffled me. And if I were a fan of this team, I would feel extremely disrespected because this team I'm referring to has gone 9-7 four years in a row. And their division counterparts arguably all got worse this season. I'm talking about the Tennessee Titans, whose win total is eight and a half.

It's juiced a little bit. I'm going to lay the 135 and go with the over. So the first thing with Tennessee, they have a weird scheduling quirk that goes into their favor. So early in the season, this is starting in week four, they have three straight home games.

They're against good teams, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Houston. Then they have a bye. Then they go to Cincinnati, and then they're back home for two more games. So for two months, the furthest they go is Cincinnati, and they get a bye in there. Cincinnati is only a four-hour drive from Nashville. How about that Google Maps research, Jeff? The other thing about them is, and it's possible they kind of learned the wrong lesson from last year it's very possible but after week seven last year when

tannahill came in the titans scored 20 or more points every single week despite mariotta having a stretch where they put up 14 points in three combined weeks. They ended the season a top 10 scoring offense. So Tannehill, look, I was dogging on Tannehill the whole season. He's not just an average quarterback. He's quite good. He completed 70% of his passes with, you know, good players around him. Obviously, the whole thing kind of comes down to Derek Henry. And we'll see if the Jack Conklin loss was a big factor for how well Henry can play.

And if Henry misses a few games, you know, this, this could, this could go South in a hurry. But look, they were a really good team. They kind of looked at their season in the opposite way that the Packers did. The Packers said, Hey, you know, we still have a lot of work to do before we're a great team. Tennessee did not feel that way. They beat Baltimore. They beat New England. They kept it close with Kansas City for longer than a lot of teams did. So look, they're elite at running back. They have a very good offense. They seem to have a very good coach, strong front seven. I think that they can win nine games again. Why not? They've done it four times in a row. Okay. So, you know, Titans fans don't like me. We've made this very clear. And, um, but I will agree with you. I think nine wins is probably about right for that. If this was, if this number was nine, I just would lay off of it. I say, just don't bet this number,

but eight and a half, I would take the over here. And, um, for the reasons you've mentioned, they're going to play good defense, decent enough defense, and they're going to run the ball and play action pass. And that formula has led to points last season. But like, let's sort of be honest with the way their schedule went down the stretch. All right. They did not beat, they beat the Chiefs, obviously, by three points in a really weird game. Otherwise, they didn't play well against better teams on their schedule down the stretch.

They beat all the teams they should beat, which again is a sign of a good team. You should beat the teams you're supposed to beat. But down the stretch last year, they lost the Texans in basically a must-win game at home by three. They lost New Orleans by 10 at home as well, and they beat the Texans in the last game of the year, which the Texans were arresting everyone. But in the middle, they beat Tampa, who wasn the last game of the year, which the Texas were resting everyone. But in that, in the middle, they beat Tampa who wasn't good chargers who weren't good. Jacksonville Indy Oakland.

They weren't beating a lot of playoff teams, Matt and night. So, so the idea that they're going to just until the playoffs, but we know the history of one hit wonders in the playoffs is vast. Okay. We saw with Jacksonville a couple years ago. Oh, my God. AFC Championship game.

They actually could have won that game. And then they dropped off a cliff. The idea of Ryan Tannehill is very fascinating to me. You have a guy who I think was underappreciated in Miami and probably overappreciated now, right? He's overappreciated. They gave him a three-year deal for $90 million, which is utterly outrageous to me off a small 10 game sample size and

obviously a big playoff run. He's a quarterback. Remember Matt in the playoff game against new England, they had nine offensive possessions scored on two of the nine. Like we, like we forget that they weren't this great offensive juggernaut in the playoffs. They ran into an old assass, broken-down New England defense.

Baltimore was 0-4, I believe, on fourth downs in that game. Like, that doesn't happen, right? So we have to look at the context of their season. I think nine wins is attainable for the reasons you've mentioned. Good offensive line. They run the ball. They play decent enough defense. Vrabel's a good coach.

Tano can do enough. But they're not going to the Super Bowl. They're not ball. They play decent enough defense. Vrabel's a good coach. Chano can do enough. But they're not going to the Super Bowl. They're not making a deep playoff run. They're not doing any of that. But even saying all that, I think nine wins is attainable. Does that kind of make sense to you? Like, they're good enough, but not that good. Yeah, they're the classic team that wins the AFC South

and then gets the playoffs and everyone goes like, huh, what? But I got to say, like, I don't want to just dismiss that they went into new england they went into baltimore those are gutty wins and mike rabel with that little clock management trick against belichick like they know what they're doing they're a professional team and i we'll get there but the rest of the division in my opinion got worse so i think there's an opportunity for it but how did tennessee get better though what'd they do to get better they didn't but the rest of the division in my opinion got worse so i think there's an opportunity but but how did tennessee get better though what they do to get better they didn't but the rest of them got worse i think but that's a fair and i'm gonna get to the texans in just a second um but you either get better or worse in the offseason and tennessee doubled down on running the football

which we know does not win championships in the nfl and doubled down on quarterback for three year deal who hasn't proven he can stay healthy or really be a franchise guy so they did not get which we know does not win championships in the NFL, and doubled down on a quarterback for a three-year deal who hasn't proven he can stay healthy or really be a franchise guy. So they did not get better either, in my opinion. It's fair. And they let Jarrell Casey go. They have no right tackle. Now they drafted Isaiah Wilson, who's on the COVID list.

Maybe he's off by now. All right, let's get to – I'll stay in the South. This is a number that's kind of surprising to me. The Houston Texans, number seven and a half. Do you realize it was that low? That's hard. I'm curious where you go here. So I'm going to go with the over seven and a half.

And the reason why is Deshaun Watson, honestly. Yeah. It's not because of Bill O'Brien, the general manager. But I'll tell you what bill o'brien the head coach doesn't get enough credit in my opinion for his regular season they made the playoffs four out of six years they have they have been a good team when they've had to play in the regular season maybe because the south has been down and you know jacksonville hasn't been that great minus the one year you know tennis uh excuse me indianapolis has had andrew luck hurt but they've won the division i believe you know they they uh won the division what uh four out

of his six years in the nfl they've won 10 11 9 9 like they win football games and i know their team got worse they lost obviously hopkins and his general manager stuff he's doing is just outrageous right trading for david john Johnson in that trade as well. But they have Deshaun Watson. And that is good enough to win eight games in the NFL. Their offensive line last year was eighth in pass protection, according to ESPN. Their defense still has J.J. Watt.

Their defense has got to get better from last season. The one question I have is they were 5-1 in game decided by a field goal last year. That worries me because that kind of goes, you know, every year kind of differs. But they just seem to win games in their regular season, man. I don't know how they're going to be. Are you telling me they're going to be under seven wins? I mean, the one year that they did that, they were 4-12 in 2017. That was the year that Watson was hurt.

Otherwise they've won 10, 11, nine, nine, nine under Bill O'Brien. I can't see them winning under seven and a half games. Maybe Bill O'Brien is just trying to win coach of the year by blowing it as a GM, because if he is able to win nine or 10 games with a David Johnson, Brandon cooks, in nine or 10 games with david johnson brandon cook's randall cobb offense he deserves coach the year i mean they have they went from one of the most fun group of specialists to just the weirdest group of guys i could have ever assembled it's like my fantasy team four years ago uh i don't know man i i i would lay that off this one i mean i from what i under i think this one's opened around eight and a half or nine in a lot of places and got bet down so i'm not terribly surprised but is that i'm curious about the betting down based off of of sharps or after

the public just saying hey you know their talents depleted i'm getting off that because is juice back to the over 125 so i'm'm curious, like what, who's betting that number? Because again, I mean, it's like Seattle, right? No, it feels like no matter what Seattle does, they just win nine games, right? Like that team can be depleted, but Russell Wilson makes it happen despite the coaching. And Bill O'Brien has shown that he can,

he can coach in the regular season. Watson's got to take less sacks, but look, their talent's not, I mean, they're not bad, regular season. Watson's got to take less sacks. But look, their talent's not – I mean, they're not bad, right? Fuller's got to stay healthy, obviously. You mentioned Cooks. Good luck. Randall Cobb had a good season last year. Defensively, they have to play better.

Yeah, and they need J.J. Watt to be healthy, which never happens. They had a lot of things sort of break their way last year. I don't know. I don't feel great about that one either way but i i do feel like they could probably win eight games that doesn't feel like a stretch at all um what might be a stretch though is uh look jeff i gotta be honest i'm swept up i'm swept up with the tampa bay buccaneers i'm infatuatedated. I'm sucked in to the team that opened at seven and a half and now is up to nine and a half. And I have to lay the 150 and I'm taking the over. Here's why.

Two guys. Jameis Winston versus Tom Brady. So I did a little mental exercise when I was preparing for this. And I thought Jameis Winston wasn't that bad last year, was he? I mean, he had so many yards. He was the leading passer in the NFL. And then a couple times a game, he'd throw these just hilarious interceptions that made the Bucs such just a pleasure to watch.

I mean, they were just so much fun to watch. Jameisston threw 30 interceptions last year the bucks led the nfl at interceptions last year by almost half a pick per game his 30 picks are more than tom brady has thrown since 2016 combined tom brady threw eight picks in the entire season last year and i had looked at this stat that showed when the game was within seven points in the fourth quarter, Jameis Winston had one touchdown and five picks with nine sacks.

Brady was no world beater. He only had one touchdown, but he had no picks and two sacks. If you extrapolate that over those few games, that could be three wins. And the Bucs were a seven win team last year and they need to get to 10 this year for this bet to cash the bucks were so bad in turnover differential last year that it's hard to believe they were even competitive they were fifth

in the nfl and takeaways and they're they're the teams around them in that area pittsburgh was number one new england seattle minnesota those were the teams ahead of them. But they, Jeff, they gave the ball away 41 times. That's two and a half a game. And around them, that's Carolina, the Giants, the Chargers and Cincinnati. Crappy teams. So somehow their defense over delivers, especially in the turnover department. And offensively, they were just horrific. So Brady doesn't need to be 2007 Tom Brady. he needs to be closer to 2015 peyton manning that's all he needs to do and

this team could easily get to eight wins but in the meantime i will say that they the bucks did some really smart things the gronkowski thing who knows but they still have a bunch of tight ends around that should lead to a pretty dynamic offense. They draft a starting tackle with Tristan Wirfs. They add Antoine Whitfield Jr. Everyone loves that pick. And last year, people don't. I feel like this flew completely under the radar. Last year, they had the sixth best all-time defensive rushing defense, according to Football Outsiders.

Top five overall defense in DVOA. Last thing. I know I'm going long here. Go ahead. Bruce Arians. Last last year he went seven and nine it was the worst season he's had in his seven years as a head coach he averages eight wins a season and now he has the best quarterback of all time along with probably the best receiving core in the league this team was a competent quarterback away last year i think they can absolutely get to 10 this year. So the question with Tampa Bay, and I'm with you here,

is whether or not they can gel quick enough for the start of the season. Because that's the issue that I see with Tampa, is that they have to gel very quickly to obviously start week one in New Orleans. And how quickly can that process happen? I mean, Gabe likes to joke about, obviously, Brady saying, well, it's been tougher than I thought to pick up the offense. I mean, probably.

But then they have Carolina week two, Denver week three, Chargers week four, Bears week five. I mean, they don't really play a playoff team, really, until, again, Green Bay week six. So they have a month to get those things worked out. And the reason why, and you mentioned it in your long rant, was their defense is really good. Really good.

So they had a great season. And they're only going to get better on defense as they continue to add more pieces to that defense. And they just need someone, to your point, that's just competent, won't turn the ball over a thousand times, and Brady won't do that. So this is 100% a square play, but I love it. It's exactly the right call.

Squares hell. Also, all the best teams on their schedule, KC, Green Bay, Minnesota, the Rams, and one of the two times with New Orleans, obviously. All of those are home games. So that is a nice break for them. They're plus 140 to win the division. And they can have home field advantage with the Heat still,

where you can't really have home field advantage maybe otherwise. That's right. So I like to speak. All right, let's stay in that division right here. Let's go to New Orleans Saints. I have them. I don't know why I didn't even write their win total down, but I have them over, I believe, 10 wins.

Yeah, excuse me, 10 and a half wins here, over minus 115. They're just a good team, man. It's hard to say otherwise, right? And last year, they were fourth on DVOA on offense, 11th on defense. They're good in all the spots you have to be good. They're really good on the offensive line. They're really good on the defensive line. They're really good at quarterback.

They're good, obviously, at skill position players. They're good at tight end. They're good at secondary. Like, they're just good everywhere. They've won 11 or more games each of the last three seasons. They've won the division the last three years. They have a great coach, Adam Manuel Sanders, as well. This is not a hard one for me to take the over here.

I mean, unless Breeze gets hurt and Winston comes in, which is also possible, I just don't see how they don't coast to 11 wins again. Yeah, I have no argument here. I mean, this one is, if you're playing the under here, you're playing it for the odds, and you are just playing the chaos theory because roster-wise, they have to be the best or one of the top two or three teams in the nfl so that's not a fun under to take no and like i said like it's just it's one of those ones where i don't think it's like that crazy just be like

yeah this is gonna this is gonna be over yeah i had no argument here um you were probably gonna have some arguments with me here uh jeff because the next team i'm looking at is man so many afc south teams to talk about the colts uh their win total number is set at nine so not only is it set at nine the over is juiced to minus 145 if you play the under it's plus 115 and i stared at this for a good two minutes and i thought what am i missing here like the colts are a pretty average team last year they had the 16th ranked offense and the 18th ranked defense and their big changes this year are dafaris buckner a couple of nice draft picks and and Philip Rivers? I think people just love this GM.

This is one of those teams where it's like, well, they always know what they're doing. They trade down. They draft Quentin Nelson. Like, cool. I think they have a great head coach and a good offensive line. And the rest of the team, they're kind of average. And that's just not a 10-win team to me. Look, Philip Rivers, I don't know.

He threw a pick on 3.4% of his passes, which is borderline Jameis Winstonian. And he had great players around him last year. This year, he doesn't. It's, you know, T.Y. Hilton, who's 31 and always injured, and a bunch of lotto tickets. Look, I think this is just a darling of Twitter and that they're getting juiced as a result. So I'm going to go with the under here. They also, one stretch of their schedule, Ravens, short week at Tennessee,

Green Bay, Tennessee again, at Houston, at Vegas. That's going to be a brutal stretch. That's in the middle of the season. I'm with you here just because Philip Rivers, I mean, I watched him play in the AFC West now for years as my brother plays in the Chiefs. And what does he have left in the tank? I feel like this is a nostalgia pick, right?

And your point that you, everyone likes the GM. They love Quentin Nelson, which obviously I love Quentin Nelson too. They love the idea of a physical Colts team, but Phillip Rivers doesn't feel like the guy's taking them over the edge. Like, right. I mean, I would be, he's gonna be game manager, Phillip Rivers now. Like what? That's not never what he has done in his career.

Unless you want to go all the way back to the start of his career when they had LaDainian Tomlinson and they ran the football. Okay, sure. I mean, if you want to convince me that's the way to go.

But I just, I'm with you. Like, I would, I don't like this number. I wouldn't bet it. But I think that under is probably, I think they end up with nine wins though, seriously.

But I mean, under, I think I'd lean toward just having a bad couple weeks and just not being as good as we thought. And it comes down to Philip Rivers. I don't get it, man. The fascination with that's the reason why things are going to be different. I just, to your point, I don't see it, man.

I don't. I don't either. He stunk last year. It wasn't very good. All right, let's end here with this. Oh, God, this terrible pick. I don't even want to do this pick. Jacksonville. I was going through the research on this, and this. Oh, God, this terrible pick. I don't even want to do this pick. Jacksonville.

I was going through the research on this, and I was like, oh, my God. Do I really have to talk about these teams? Jacksonville, I'm going under four and a half wins. Oh, man. Everyone loves Gardner Minshew. I get it, but he wasn't very good last year. You're really just pulling deep out of your bag of tricks here to have some talking points on the Jags.

Jackson, you know, there were 23rd and expected points added on passing and their passing offense last year. They weren't, they just weren't very good on passing. They were terrible on third downs, which is a young quarterback thing,

but I don't know what they've done this off season to get better. The history of the NFL is not littered with Gardner Minshew's who lead teams, the championship. I mean, Tom Brady's the outlier in that, right? Russell Wilson's an outlier in that. But does Garnu Minshu remind you of Tom Brady or Russell Wilson? No, he doesn't. Not quite.

He doesn't remind you of that. Defensively, they were 29th in DVOA last year. And they added rookies. Again, rookies. They added Chason at outside linebacker and C.J. Henderson at cornerback. But in this offseason, rookies, in my opinion, don't get you over the edge. They don't get you over the edge. And this just screams, you know, like, you know,

Doug Marone gets fired week seven, and they just play with a lame duck coach for the rest of the season. Actually, Jay Gruden. Jay Gruden. Jay Gruden. You're right. Jay Gruden. My man. He. Jay Gruden. Jay Gruden. Jay Gruden. You're right. Jay Gruden. Becomes their head coach.

I just. I just hate. I just. This pick just bothers me. But I'm taking the under here. Yeah. They have a good shot at being the worst team in the league. But I will.

I will tease that my prop is Jacksonville related. And it's not related to whether they're the worst team in the league. So. Hang in there through some Atlanta Falcons talk. Until we get to that. Because Atlanta is the last team in the league. So hang in there through some Atlanta Falcons talk until we get to that, because Atlanta is the last team on the board here. I'm going to take the under and I'm going to take it with even money. There are seven and a half wins are expected out of them.

So the Falcons were actually one of the most popular over bets this offseason. Eight or nine out of 10 of the bets are on the over from mostly the public okay um and i i don't know why i i thought about it uh they closed the season hot and i think they're getting a lot of credit for that if you remember they beat san francisco in that like crazy kind of trap game looking back uh in a stretch where they also beat carolina tampa jacksonville in a row. Again, like what's that really doing for me? But their offseason, talk about not getting better. So they replaced Devontae Freeman with Todd Gurley, who has to be the oldest 26 year old in the history of sports. I mean,

how is that guy 26? I feel like he's been in the league for a decade. That move is sort of emblematic of their other moves right they they lose austin hooper who has been very good and they replace him with hayden hurst who again good name first round pick two years ago and the ravens who are one of the smartest teams in the league and use tight ends almost exclusively on their offense traded him for a fourth round or two years after taking him in the first round that's not a great sign and their defense is just like full of these guys who you like in the draft guides like deon jones and keanu neal and tack mckinley dante fowler none of them ever really did anything

they have an average offensive line they have an average defensive front an average secondary they of course have julio jones and matt ryan one of the best duos i really like calvin ridley and fantasy but this having a good season requires so much for them to break right they've no depth behind todd girley it's ito smith again they need julio jones to stay healthy which doesn't always happen uh they need that defense to step up with the help of dan quinn which we're still waiting on that one and they need one of the other juggernauts in the NFC South to kind of fall apart. Also, talk about fired coaches. They start Seattle at Dallas, Chicago at Green Bay, Carolina at Minnesota.

That could be deadly. So this team feels like a lock for an under, but everybody disagrees with me. So am I missing something? I mean, they have, what, 10 first round picks on their offense right now out of 11 players? Isn't that what they're going with? My problem with Atlanta has been their defense.

Under Dan Quinn, who's a defense coach, they haven't been good. To your point, they haven't developed talent. You rattled off all the players on their team who are supposed to be studs. The guys they drafted have just never panned out and so you're telling me dan quinn who is a defensive coach and i wrote this last year about why you should be fired your job as a defense coach to make sure your defense is good last

season they were 20th in dvoa the season before they were 31 in dvoa they have not been good on defense under dan quinn and what is to lead me to believe they're going to be any better? They were 22nd the year before that. Nothing will lead me to believe that. Their offense could be good, but you kind of have to have complementary football, especially when you're playing New Orleans and Tampa Bay in your division. So under is a bold pick, though.

I mean, it's a bold pick, but I could see why you have no confidence in them. I mean, they still have to play the Saints and the Bucks four times that's tough plus they have to play Green Bay plus they have to play Minnesota plus they have to play Dallas and Seattle I mean that's probably eight losses right there yeah I I don't disagree with you I don't want I would I would have probably bet the over but since you made a good point for the under I'll take that um all right here we go Let's recap these eight picks. I took the Panthers under five and a half,

a bet I actually made. Matt took the Titans over eight and a half. I have the Texans under over seven and a half. We went over Tampa, over Saints, under Colts, under Jags, and we ended with under the Falcons. Oh God, the Jags pick just looks at us. It's supposed to smack me in the face.

I was doing research. I think I'm going to take your Panthers pick. I think that's one I'm going to do in my life. Yeah. I mean, I write notes down. I don't do computer. I'm thankful that my staff does my staff. The people I work with put together notes i do i do use them i mean nick has been putting stuff in the chat as we've been talking it's been great um but i do handwritten notes and like i'm i'm putting handwritten notes like i just jacksonville just i like nothing for them just like i just was like just give up what's there to say jay green offense now our two prop bets um you know i was looking at these props today, and one caught my eye. It was the Panthers to basically have the first pick in the NFL,

the worst team in the NFL, plus 600. I like all the reasons why. I like all the reasons why. Super young on defense, brand-new head coach, brand-new OC, brand-new DC, brand-new quarterback. And Teddy has not been a full-time starter now in many years. He came in with the Saints team that was nothing like the Panthers team um and there's a lot of growing pains they're going to have this season and i think that the panthers and the odds are good because they're

the third or fourth highest uh lowest odds i'll just say to make this happen and i think the panthers are gonna be good this year i think if you were to take um bets on who'd be the number one pick in the draft you're looking at carolina and jacksonville two teams we covered today yeah those are two of the three favorites for where i'm looking it's the jags are plus 225 the uh fighting football team of washington is plus 550 uh i tell you what i i think washington will be a little bit better than expected yeah i took their over last time we uh i just think like the more i think about like they have good coaching staff they have a really good defensive line that typically leads like most teams have good defensive lines aren't terrible right i mean they're not it's hard

to be terrible if you can rush the passer um yeah so yeah i don't yeah and just like a lot of good buzz around that team which they haven't had in a long time yes so i'm gonna have i'm gonna blow your mind with this player okay please so i'm going to say that for plus 110 i am going to take garter minshu over 3500 passing yards so here's the case jeff last year in 14 games he threw for almost 3300 jacksonville's going to be behind in every single game. There it is. He's got an injury history, which is a little worrisome,

but I mean, 3,500 passing yards is a little over 200 a game. That's not that much of a stretch. Nothing in the NFL now. Nothing. Also, the Jags, you said this, like they're, I don't think they're expecting

to go to the promised land this year, but they have no other options besides him. Their backup quarterbacks are Mike Glennon and Josh Dobbs. And if you're going to find a strength on this team, it's their receivers. They drafted one in the second round. Shark and Westbrook aren't horrible. Tyler Eifert, the ultimate like, well, if he's healthy, that guy. Plus, you mentioned Jay Gruden, who i've spent far too many years

watching the the fruits of his labor on the football field he passes a lot chris thompson they signed him i think his all-time favorite player they're gonna dump it off a ton come on this is a fun one to root for who's not rooting for that kid so how many yards was it again you say 3,500 34.99 So just over 200 yards a game. I'm looking at Blake Bortles in Jacksonville. His three seasons, he started 16 games. They won five games,

three games. They won 10 that one season. He threw for 4,400 yards and 3,900 yards. In the two years, they were really bad. I had him on fantasy one of those years. It was great. They were down,

they were down three scores every game. And I'm with you here. It's a great bet because Minshew's going to be passing the ball all the time. All the time. They're going to be behind all these games. I love this bet. I'm going to go find this right now. Dude, you've been crushing these prop bets, man.

You've got that Saquon Barkley under that I loved as well. I have to decide whether I'm doing a keeper league this year for the first time ever in fantasy, and I have Saquon Barkley on my team. I can choose in the first round, have the third pick over on the first round, to keep him or draft someone else. I'm going to draft someone else, I think.

I don't think so. You're not going to get a better option at the third pick. Well, the question is that who gets, I guess it depends on who gets kept. Yeah, but if anyone gets kept, if McCaffrey and Elliott get kept, then he's the best player left. What about Nick Chubb, though? Oh, Kareem Hunt, man. That's, he's got some competition there. That's a good point.

Saquon, when he plays, I mean, he's going to screw you when he sits out for COVID prevention in week 15 when the Giants are 4-11. Well, it can't be any worse than last year i lost i was 1 and 13 last season fantasy football i won the first week lost 13 in a row that's my entire team was hurt i had darn old i had darn old barkley hunter henry um adam the entire season everyone was hurt every week yeah that's that's not your fault those are good guys i won my league with jamameis Winston as my starting quarterback. That's how good my team was last year. You must have had a really poor league.

And I also had Christian McCaffrey in a PPR league. Oh, well, congratulations. Let's go home. That's very, very nerdy. All right, guys. Appreciate you listening. These Titans fans, that's something nice about your team. You win nine games.

Over. I picked the Titans over. So congratulations. Titans fan. That's something nice about your team. You win nine games. Over. I picked the Titans over, so congratulations. Titans fans. Whiting the juice. All right, guys. We have one division left, and actually two, the West, which I think are the best divisions. Fun ones.

Yeah, finally. They'll be a lot of fun. Guess which team I'll take first next week? The Chargers. Yeah. So we'll have a great weekend everybody um matt next time we come on this the lakers will have a commanding three to one lead in the series i expect you to wear a laker shirt on this show oh okay let's figure out if we could bet on that offline uh we can't find

a way to bet on that all right guys have a great weekend talk to everyone next week good night