Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - AFC West, NFC West Win Totals & Prop Bets

Episode Date: August 27, 2020

Geoff and Matt preview their AFC West and NFC West team win total predictions with bonus prop bet picks. Also, how will the league handle fans in stadiums? And we'll reflect on historic boycotts in the NBA and around the country. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday august 27th this is our gambling episode of jeff schwartz's smartly we will preview the afc west and the nfc west alongside matt ford i am jeff schwartz matt how are you doing fired up for today we have much better picks in this these two divisions than we do and i think in any other show we've done so far of our gambling previews. Yeah, because we finally have some good divisions to talk about. Like, my God, we're finally done with the AFC South. Let's go. The AFC South has never been a good division to talk about with Wintos. But before we get there, Matt, really quickly,

because it's important to touch on this. We are fans of sports. I've always been a fan of sports. And last night was a historic night in sports. The NBA players boycotted all their games last night. There were three playoff games that were essentially postponed, starting with the Milwaukee Bucks, who led the movement to get the games boycotted.

There had been baseball players and possibly baseball teams as well, as we're recording this. The West Coast teams are deciding. Lots of takes on this on the internet. And I'm not going to give you a heavy take, Matt. Just something I feel it's important to talk about. When we had Duke Manningweather on during the George Floyd protests, he brought up something that has kind of guided me through this protest

and boycotting and player movement, social justice movement is, this is made to be uncomfortable. The point of the boycott is to make us uncomfortable and force us to have the conversations that we're having, whether in our house, whether on social media, whether with our friends, our neighbors. And it's not just because of one horrific shooting. It's for all of it. It's for all of it. And I just want to make sure we understand that. It's not just like a half-hearted thing

that the players are doing. They understand the consequences of it. They understand it might cost them money. They understand it might cost them a career, which is very unlikely, but it might cost them sponsors and they might lose the bubble, whatever it is. They understand all of this, but it's to make us uncomfortable.

That is why the players boycotted today. They may play tomorrow. They may not. We might get news that the bubble's been completely canceled. I don't know. But they already put out what they wanted to see from the Wisconsin State legislature. They have a plan, guys.

The players have a plan. I know you think they don't, but they do. And the number one plan is to make us uncomfortable and make us talk and listen about possible changes, the changes that we do need in our country moving forward. So that's very quickly. We're done with that. It just felt, Matt, that we couldn't go on unless I addressed.

So it's a historic day. It's never happened before across all the sports with teams just bowing. Of the playoffs. It's the playoffs right now. And all the teams obviously did it, all six of them, last night. All right, let's get into what we're going to talk about today, the AFC West and the NFC West in two of our favorite prop bets. All right, Matthew.

I'm going to start with the easy one. All right, here we go. Chiefs. My Chiefs right there. The Chiefs. My brother plays on the Chiefs. Oh, there here we go. Chiefs. My Chiefs right there. The Chiefs. My brother plays on the Chiefs. Oh, there we go. There we go.

The Chiefs right there. My brother plays on the Chiefs. This is a no-brainer for me. It's a lot of wins here, Matt, but over 11 and a half. You knew where I was going with this. You knew where you knew it. I don't even have notes. I don't even need notes for the Chiefs.

Look, here's the deal, guys. Andy Reid has won at least 10 games in six of his seven seasons as the Chiefs head coach. I was there for the first one. We had 11 wins. He's won 12 or more three times in his seven years in Kansas City. This season, the Chiefs return 20 of 22 Super Bowl starters. You can include Juan Thornhill to make it 21 of 22.

He played most of the season. They return a team of veteran players that know how to make it 21 of 22. He played most of the season. They return a team of veteran players that know how to get it done. This is a year, we've talked about this nonstop, where veteran teams who know what they're doing will excel more than any other team in the NFL this year. Just because of the oddity of training camp, the oddity of this season, whatever it is,

it's, I trust trust andy reed pat mahomes steve spagnola the the dc huddy badger and frank clark and chris jones and pat mahomes and my brother and tyreek and kelsey and eric fisher and and clyde edwards hilaire like oh look at that team right it's unbelievable the only way they could stop this year of not getting 11 really 12 wins i should say is is injury matt i know it's it's it's crazy to take way they could stop this year of not getting 11 really 12 wins i should say is is injury matt i know it's it's it's crazy to take the over i bet this in real life by the way um i just think veteran teams this year matt or have such a big advantage and the chiefs are the example of this no team has repeated a super bowl champ since the pats in

04 i don't see why the chiefs couldn't. We're not betting on this. I'm not betting on them winning the Super Bowl. Over. No, you're not even hearing what I'm saying. I think they could. Like, they honestly, like, nothing's changed. If anything, they've probably gotten better. I think that the repeating, to your point,

the repeating talk is something I haven't gone to yet because this game is so tough. It's so tough. And there's injuries. And this year, with the new playoff format, only one team gets a bye. And I think that could be Baltimore. And that means that the Chiefs would have to go to Baltimore to win the AFC. That's no easy task, right?

They've now had two straight home AFC championship games. They have to go on the road to Baltimore, who they play, I believe, in week three as well. But nonetheless, it's a tough road to get back there. But I trust them with the mentality they have to get enough of those wins. Yeah. Well, I wonder if they'll be affected at all by the lack of a home crowd, potentially. I know that they might end up having some fans, but they could be one of those teams, like a few others actually we'll talk about later, that could be pretty effective at that, right? Look, I think the home field advantage thing is very interesting this year.

We saw last year the Chiefs lost three home games, one without Pat Mahomes. The Seahawks, who have a great home field advantage, lost three home games as well. For whatever reason, home field advantage last year wasn't as big as it was. I saw a tweet the other day that had last season the point differential

for home teams was negative. It was negative last year, like negative 12 or something. Part of that is the Dolphins lost like two home games by 100 points each. But like there's a big differential now. And so I don't know if it matters.

The thing about crowd is interesting. I know Sean McDermott's don't know if it matters the thing about crowd is interesting i know sean mcdermott's kind of pissed about it with the dolphins and the bills announced you know they won't have fans for the first two home games um is that it's more about i would say just the juice in the stadium right that electricity in the stadium that players are so used to having whether it's it's you're the away team and someone's booing you that fires you up too you're the home team someone's cheering you the the, that fires you up too. You're the home team and someone's cheering you. The no fans is going to be very odd. You have to be a self-starter,

a self-motivator, a big play. You're not going to get that attaboy from the crowd for that. And it's an odd, it's going to be an odd feeling. Now, the Chiefs will have 22% capacity, 17,000, something like that. So you'll get a little bit of that in Kansas City. But no, the only team with home field advantage this year is Denver, because of the was, I don't know, 17,000, something like that. So you'll get a little bit of that in Kansas city.

But no, the only team with home field advantage this year is Denver because altitude, I think. For my first pick, Jeff, I am going to go sort of against what my first instinct was here. And I'm going to go with Seattle. So their number is nine. The rent total is nine. Everybody's hammering the over.

You have to lay minus 150 to take the over so i'm going to chase that plus money and go under nine for plus 120 so look i get that this is probably a bad idea off the jump because seattle hasn't gone under nine and seven since russell wilson has been their quarterback since 2011 uh they've missed the court sorry they've missed the playoffs sorry they've missed the playoffs once they but they went nine and seven that year that was 2017 and i understand it's more likely that they go 12 and four than that they go six and ten but i'm just gonna still outline a few of these reasons why i don't exactly like them the first problem we think of them as this defensive

powerhouse because they are every year at least in our heads as fans but they were actually 26 than yards allowed last year not good and they're starting defensive ends both of them jadavian clowny and ziggy ansa are both still free agents which like just makes no sense i actually texted jeff and was like is this is jadavian clowny still inside how is this even possible yeah it's you know three weeks before season, and we don't know who their starting defensive line is. That is a problem. Yeah, I get that the secondary is going to be better. Jamal Adams is a huge improvement. We don't know if Quinton Dunbar is going to be fully able to play, given his legal struggles.

But they just have so many question marks up front, and usually the secondary seems to only be as good as the pass rush. So we'll see how much Jamal Adams can really make an impact. And meanwhile, look, it's the same faces on offense and the offense is obviously pretty good every year. But in key spots, Seattle is still going to have to rely on Will Disley, David Moore and the ghost of Greg Olson and Philip Dorsett, who's on his 19th team in two seasons. They're all going to have to play these really key roles. And, you know, that just worries me because eventually at some point their luck is going to run out on that stuff. But here's the last thing, Jeff, when you come to this podcast for that second level of analysis, this is it. The Seahawks travel more than any other NFL team this year in terms of mileage by around 25%, like 7,000 miles, which is quite a few miles.

That's New York to LA back. They travel more than the entire AFC North combined this season. So when Grantland existed, they found this stat that for 15 seasons, when they were around teams that traveled 2000 miles or more for a road a road trip won four out of 10 games. The Seahawks have five of those trips this season. So that's going to be a big problem in any season. But in the COVID season, that could potentially make a huge impact. And plus, when they come home, they're not going to have that 12th man that has carried them in so many close games for years to pick them up. So I'm going to go under on seattle what say you so plenty

things discussed here by the way seattle's like in the top corner of the country they're the they're the furthest to fly every year i mean they're in the middle there's no one close to them um uh so that that's not as big of a deal but i think the points you made are are very accurate here i love russell wilson i was asked the other day are they gonna let him cook and the answer is no and that's the problem right is they do not let their best player play an offense that suits them best and for the life of me they don't want to change and he can only save them so many times being down 18 to 12 in the fourth quarter and making a comeback when when the defense isn't you know they have the worst defensive line in the NFL right now

their offensive line is just blah right the weapons they have aren't the best and it's only going to last for so long it really is and I just think that that the the plus money here makes sense I would not bet this. I would say office, I think nine is kind of about their number. But if I'm just looking at their roster and taking out the fact that Russell Wilson wins all these games,

he shouldn't, okay? He shouldn't. They should not win those games. I think it was, is it Kevin Clark or Danny Kelly who tweeted, tweets out every, just retweets every Seattle game. Like, this is not a normal game.

Like, this is, you didn't ever play normal games. Every second is weird. So I, this is the, honestly, one of the toughest ones I've had this entire offseason because they've been an auto overbet for me because of the reasons you said. Nine and seven at least every single season. Last year, their total, I think, was eight or eight and a half auto bet easily. And they were, you know, they were one inch away from winning the NFC West. But I'm going to get to the Rams in a second.

But my thing with Seattle is what do they do to get better this offseason? They got Jamal Adams, obviously. But is that enough to push your team to one more win? Probably not. Probably not. They just didn't get much better this offseason. And that's what concerns me about them. And if the center gets COVID

and Russell Wilson has to miss time, like it's Geno Smith. They're one of these teams where, you know, it's one amazing player and the rest of the team around them is not so great. I like the under in those situations. It just feels a little safer.

All right, Matt. The first future bet I personally made this year, and remember, not all these. I tell you the ones I make, right? The Chiefs I made. This is the second one. The Los Angeles Rams under nine wins. You might give me eight and a half. You take the under. Take the under. Here's the reason why. Going back to my point about the Seattle Seahawks is, did they get better or worse this offseason? What did they do to address the offensive line that was a disaster last season? They couldn't get any push in the run game. Nothing, right? They ran it right back. What'd they do to get any sort of outside pass rush outside of Aaron Donald? Nothing, right? They ran it all back.

They got A's Sean Robinson. That does not count. Look, Jalen Ramsey is obviously very good, and their defense at times played well last season. But I do not trust this offense to continue to produce like they did a couple years ago. They play a top five toughest defensive efficiency schedule. Jared Goff last year was 23rd in qbr he wasn't much better and expected points added as well this is my team this year who's really going to

struggle we're gonna be like oh wow how'd that happen just like schematically it's something very simple last year like okay so sean mcveigh just couldn't figure out how to get the run game going and they're a run-based offense because j Jared Goff is not very good on third down. And when you get the Rams at the third and long, all right, Goff struggles, okay? Third and seven and plus. And the way they stay out of that is they run the ball very well. Well, they didn't run the ball very well last year. Their offensive line can't get – when they run a lot of zones,

they run zones more kind of like sort of side to side-ish. The offense has got to get up the field and not get pushed back, the offensive line should say. But they kept getting pushed back all year and they made no adjustments whatsoever. So they kept running the ball, running the ball, running the ball, and it wasn't working. And I'm not sure what's going to change this year. Like Sean McVay has shown that he's going to run the exact same offense all the time

and just maybe hope it works better this year. But I don't see how it's going to improve. They drafted a running back in the second round. They did not need a running back in the second round. Like that wasn't what they needed to make their team better. And I just don't see them improving very much from last season. That's so interesting. I mean, I think that people just sort of chalked their struggles in the run game

up to whatever was going on with Todd Gurley. I think this Cam Akers kid is good. Like at Florida State, his numbers were great. But yeah, you're right. I mean, I'm kind of curious why they decided to eat all that money with Todd Gurley and not upgrade the offensive line. I kind of think Todd Gurley, he might not be great, but he's probably got something left in the tank. Atlanta's trotting him out there as a full-time starter.

So I think the problems are a little deeper. I like this. I wouldn't have probably made this bet, but I really like the angle. I was just thinking about teams this year where, again, did you get better or did you get worse? And what did the Rams do this offseason where you're like, man, they really improved? Nothing. Nothing. No.

They traded all their draft picks for three guys and they don't have a lot of capital left because they had to throw it all at McDonald to jerk off. Yeah. They're in a tough spot. They've sort of managed to double down and double down and double down and hasn't bit them yet but i mean i guess it bit them a bit last year but i don't know i like this pick too i've uh i've enjoyed sean mcveigh turning into john gruden on hard knocks i'm sure you've enjoyed that too um but i don't think that bodes well john gruden misses the playoffs a lot speaking of missing the playoffs and a team on hard knocks, I'm going to go with my second pick here to the Chargers.

Their number is seven and a half. Everyone's hammering the over here. This one's juiced to minus 145 on the over and plus 112 on the under. And Jeff, surprise, I'm going under again. The reason why is because I have some questions.

Here's my first question. Who is the quarterback of the Chargers? It's a problem. That is a problem. Terod Taylor? Terod? That's what we're going with. Terod is probably the starter.

He's a career 500 quarterback. He's not going to make you better. He's not going to make you worse. But what's so baffling about this is people are saying the chargers are going to be better than last year with taylor over rivers but also that rivers is going to be better than brissette in indy like what is the consensus on philip rivers he's bad so tyra taylor's bad too so i don't really understand how that improves anyone um and also like if they start poorly taylor's gonna get benched they're gonna put herbert in there and He doesn't seem like one of those guys that's ready from day one.

Screw you. Screw you, Orkin. No, that's just a fact. Anthony Lynn said the reason they drafted him is because he looks good coming off the bus. That's not necessarily a ringing endorsement. I don't like him saying that. No, it's not great. Personnel-wise, the Austin Eckler thing is a little worrisome.

Anytime you go from the two-guy stepping into the number one spot, that's a little concerning. But the thing I'm really worried about with this team is what is going on with their training staff? Last year, they were 30th in the league in games missed, which is an actual stat on football outsiders. The year before, they were 20th. Like every year, it seems like the charges. It's like, well, if they could just stay healthy, they could just actually break through. Hunter Henry's never played a full season. Mike Williams is already hurt.

Chris Harris, the big signing, is coming off an injury. They have a decent – they have a good roster actually, but it's pretty old. Obviously, losing Rivers will help that. But the other thing, Jeff, they travel the second most behind Seattle in that crazy stat I found earlier. So give me the under. That's not a great cocktail. It's juiced to the over here at 7.5, the total is at.

I think your point about quarterback is the reason why I sort of have to agree with the under. I feel much more comfortable taking the under here because of the lack of quarterback consistency. Because, like you mentioned, they're a very talented team. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, they upgrade their offensive line. They have Hunter Henry back as well. They can rush the passer on defense. Bosa, Ingram. They drafted Kenneth Murray to play linebacker.

Derwinames is fantastic casey a word chris hersh you it's all good but the number one component to any team in the nfl is their quarterback play and tyra taylor did lead buffalo to a better record than i think people expected him to do yeah but they're in a division they're in a tough division i mean the raiders and i'll get to the raiders in a second, they'll present maybe some issues. But I would feel more comfortable taking the under, but I could see where you might think, where they could go over, right? Like I feel very strongly that the Rams are going under

and the Chiefs are going over. It would shock me if those were any different. But I do not, it wouldn't shock me the Chargers if Herbert and Tyron Taylor, they want eight games. It wouldn't shock me with the talent they have on their roster. Yeah. You just want to give Justin Herbert some love. I,

I do want to get my, I do not like, I do not like, not great off the plane, but great off the bus. I do not like how much they talk about him on hard knocks. Like him, like they,

they show his spirals. Like it never, it's never good when they show the spiraling pass. Sanchez-esque. Yep. Oh, no, no. He's much – come on. He's –

No, just in terms of – I'm talking as a producer. Now, I'm the expert. I'm saying they're contrasting. It's Sanchez and Herbert. Just try to keep up. Okay. Thank you. I'm still very confused.

I'm not confused about my next pick. The Las Vegas Raiders, who, by the way, on my notes, I wrote Oakland. Yep, same. When I searched for some of their stats, I wrote Oakland. I was wondering why. I was looking at some – I was like, where is – I went to O, and I was like, there's no Oakland Raiders on my – did they just forget about it?

And I think that people will forget about this team this year when they're under seven and a half wins. Let's go. And I just look. will forget about this team this year when they're under seven and a half wins. Let's go. And I just look. Here's the deal. This comes down to a lack of trust in Derek Carr. Their offense last year wasn't half bad. They were ninth in the offense at DVOA.

Their offensive line is really good. They run the ball very well. So they're ninth in the offense at DVOA, but they were the fifth worst scoring offense in the NFL over the ball very well. So they're not the offense to DVOA, but they were the fifth worst scoring offense in the NFL over the last two seasons. Carr has a losing record in five of his six seasons in the NFL. He doesn't finish when it comes into the red zone. He's not able to finish those drives. John Gruden schemes up a great first start. If you watch all the Raiders games last year, they come out very fast on offense and they peter out as the game goes on because Derek Carr

is not on script anymore. There's something about him to where he doesn't finish these games very well. And yes, he has a lot of fourth quarter comebacks. I get all that, but it's obviously not enough because they're not winning enough to where they're in a position to make the playoffs. Look, the last time was 2016, obviously, hurt his leg. They're really in the playoff fight. I remember last year when they were like 4-4. People were like, here come the Raiders,

and they lost three in a row. Dude, they've been outscored by the Chiefs in the last three games, something like 130 to 27. It's not even been close, okay? So I'm going under here. Plus the defense, 31st last year in DVOA. How about this stat? This is not even really a gambling thing.

It's just I need to say this out loud because I ran across this. They have ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring defense in 17 straight seasons. Jeez. They haven't even had one abnormal year where they've been good on defense they've all been always bad on defense and i just don't see getting any better um and i think that they're gonna be massively disappointed and i also think that carl gruden don't get along and i think that he wants to play mario as soon as he can which has boded so well in the past for tennessee

oh yeah um that stat about their defense is insane, especially when you think about some of the talent they've had on the side of the ball. Oh, yeah. I don't have a smart-ass reply for once. I actually have a question. With them moving cities, I almost view this as an expansion team in a weird way. They have to figure out how to redo everything, right? isn't that potentially a disadvantage in a year like this um well it definitely is um because um you know they have a uh you know they have to move obviously everyone

has to move right they have to find a new house they have to use a new facility and then alone you know on top of that i should say they have covid to deal with right so the stress of having to move during covid new protocols new facility new buildings no fans in the stands and we know that you know look you want to say what you want about oakland coliseum it is a dump but the raiders fans are good fans good fans so um it's going to be a weird year for them and again the division i think is better and I think they're going under. Yeah. Well, also moving to Las Vegas, that is quite a life changer, I can imagine.

We would probably not do too well there, you and I. I'll stick in the AFC West and I'll go to Denver. I am going to go under here. But it's one of those that i feel almost too good about their number seven and a half uh it's even money to take the under minus 130 to take the over i i think i just i must just not be getting this like did i miss something with this drew lock sensation like i understand he went four and one last year but they beat the badly banged up chargers and the lions who are like just a shell of a team at the end of the year they beat the

raiders they beat houston that like sure great win um but you know and i understand they started two and two and six and then a lot came in and kind of turned it around like okay fine but like i i just don't really see where the talent is on this team other than a few spots. Everybody still thinks that they have this elite defense. But Von Miller last year was his first year without double digit sacks in his first in a full season. He's age. This is his age 31 season. So maybe we're sort of seeing the downside of that. Like, yes, they added Bouye and Jarrell Casey, but they lost Chris Harris and Derek Wolf. So those are essentially just replacements.

Those aren't upgrades. You know, I really like the Jerry Judy pick. I think Melvin Gordon like add strength to a strength. Cool. But, you know, to say like, wow, they got this amazing offensive coordinator minded Pat Shermer, who how many guys have gotten credit for the Vikings offense at this point? A hundred. Like, how do we know that he's any good i think drew drew lock is like a is a rorschach test some people see what they want to see with him and some people see like okay he had a few decent games you know i'm sure if you looked at his tape you could see some spots where he maybe

got a little bit luckier teams just i would imagine if you're playing a two and six team you're not going to be super worried about the rookie quarterback but the thing that kind of like has me worried about drew lock is even the broncos passed on him in the first round and last year was not a great quarterback class that was duane haskins and daniel jones and the broncos drafted noah phan instead so they traded back get him, obviously. But those second round quarterbacks just never work. They have one first team all pro since 2001. That's Drew Brees. Those quarterbacks tend to turn into Brock Osweiler or Chad Haney more often than they turn into Colin Kaepernick, who happens to be another good example. It's a mystery team.

So I'm going to take the under. So I worry about teams that people declare are going to make huge jumps yeah like the offseason darling is almost never the opposite that's kind of why i see loki like like the lions and the steelers teams like no one are talking about that have really talented quarterbacks uh you're right about drew lock he beat a lot of teams that weren't very good and he played well against the Texans. And he went to Kansas City in the snow and looked like he never had thrown a ball before. And that's a concern of mine.

Their offensive line is poo. It's not very good. That's a huge problem, in my opinion. Now, they drafted Jerry Judy, who looks fantastic at camp. They drafted KJ Hamler. And they have Noah Fant. They have a good group of skill position players. Defensively, they're going to be good because Vic Fangio's a good coach.

And remember last year, too. They lost those two games in week one. They were up in the, what? Yes. With a minute left in two of those games, I believe, and lost them. So, you know, they were better than their record. But, again, I don't feel comfortable with Drew Locke enough to bet an over on this team. I just don't feel comfortable enough for that to happen.

It comes down to quarterback play, you know, a lot more than anything else, like we talked about. Vic Fangio, the head coach, is very conservative, which worries me a lot when you take a team that's going to be over. So I lean under here as well. I think that makes a lot of sense. All right, let's go to my last one. Arizona over 7.5. This one, let's go to my last one. Arizona over seven and a half.

Ooh, let's talk about a darling team. I know, this worries me because of the darling factor of the Cardinals because everyone's picked them to go over and I hate, I hate doing this, but I think it makes sense when I personally feel like the Rams are going to be under, right?

So the Rams are going to be under and the Seahawks are going to be under. The Niners are going to be under, right? So the Rams are going to be under and the Seahawks are going to be under. The Niners are going to be about, I think their win total. Then someone's got to win some games in that division. And it's going to be Arizona in my opinion. Last year, they were 13th on offensive DVOA. And then they added Calvin Beecham for offensive line. Their offensive line last year was poor.

They drafted Justin Jones as well. Calum Ray was sacked 48 times last season. Good buddy of mine, Brandon Thorne, who does a great job with offensive line, ranks their offensive line 19th heading of the season, which is plenty fine enough. They ran the ball very well last year. Had to work on the passing game,

and they added DeAndre Hopkins to work on the passing game. So they've done the things they have to do offensively to continue to improve. And I'll be quite honest with you, I didn't think that this offense would work. And I'm not sure that he even kind of knows that it works quite yet, but it's showing signs that it can work in the NFL. And the addition of Hopkins was supremely important. Defensively, just got to get better. And I think that in year two, they were 23rd last year in overall defense and DVOA.

But if everyone's losing in this division, someone has to win games. And they feel like it's Arizona who's going to be that team. It's just got to get eight wins. Eight and eight, and they're in. I mean, I agree with you. Somebody's got to win these games, but they were 32nd overall in defensive, just yards allowed last year.

Granted, they were in a bunch of shootouts. I loved the Simmons pick in the first round when you pair him with the newly rich Buda Baker. There's a lot of cool positional versatility there, but that usually kind of takes a little bit of a while to figure out like we'll see how deandre hopkins meshes into the offense he's amazing um but i that that's what i'm gonna stay away from because of the hype if we just have though we can't have every team go under in the afc in the nfc west though that's like the problem i'm sure so why don't i go ahead. So why don't I go ahead and take it over for you?

So that's basically my point, is you're bearish on the Rams. I'm kind of bearish on Seattle and Arizona. So I'm going to take the over with San Francisco, who, let's be honest, are clearly the best team in that division. The things that they did this offseason are like the kinds of things that if everything works will look genius.

For example, the Trent Williams signing, their trade, I should say, it's as good as it gets, right? Like you lose Joe Staley, you pick up Trent Williams, who is an unbelievable left tackle. Loved watching him for my WFTs for many years. Nick Bosa, I kind of forgot that he was just a rookie last year. That guy was borderline defensive player of the year in year one, so he is going to be special moving forward. They traded

Tafaris Buckner. Then they draft Javon Kinlaw, who we both loved in our draft show. That's a guy who's ready to go right away. He doesn't need to be Warren Sapp to be good on that D-line. George Kittle's my favorite player in the whole league uh just unstoppable one of the best non-quarterbacks and they have a really they have a lot of continuity just everywhere and those teams are gonna come out hot

you would think the questions emmanuel sanders is gone who's gonna catch the ball devo samuels injured we don't know raheem master is like talk about a Rorschach test like what is that going to be what's who's going to be the running back Jimmy Garoppolo same thing but I was I was leaning towards the under on this and then I did a little look at teams that lose the Super Bowl because I I think in my head I always thought hey the teams that lose the Super Bowl tend to fall apart the next year but since 2009 only Carolina only Carolina has done that. Only Carolina has gone under 500. The other teams have been good. There have been a few that have missed the playoffs. But most of the time, those teams can kind of come back the following year.

Last thing on them, they do have to travel kind of a lot as another West Coast team. But after October and their second half of the season, their furthest road trip is Dallas. So they have a lot of games close to home at the end of the year. I think that will benefit them. So I'm going to take the over. Look, best coach in the division, best head coach in the division. We talked about it the other day. Best play car in the division.

Best corner in the position. Best GM in the division. Best roster in the division. You mentioned they go from Joe Stedley to Trent Williams, right? Crazy. Brent Aiyuk being hurt, the first-round pick, does put a damper a little bit in the offense. You mentioned Ken Law just kind of replacing Buckner, who left.

They're just a well-rounded team. Like, Shanahan will get that offense into spots to be successful. The defense can rush a passer. Worry a little bit about the secondary, but not enough to where I don't feel like taking the over here as well i'm with you here look again the theme that i have if you haven't noticed is veteran teams veteran coaches veteran quarterbacks over over over everyone else under like this personally just feel better about that being the case all right let's go to my prop of the day.

I don't think I've done this one yet, but I've talked about it a little bit. I started writing again. I used to write for SB Nation. It's no longer an SB Nation, a national website. I wrote over 400 articles for them. I like writing. I'm like, you know what? I got to write because I feel so strongly about this.

But you go to schwarzenfl.com. I actually have a website, believe it or not. And I wrote on my website about this today. Steelers to win the Super Bowl at plus 2,500. Plus 2,500. I like that. That is extreme value. The 12th or 13th best. They have the same odds as the Bills. The Bills. The Bills to win the Super Bowl. So here's why I like this, okay? And I lay this all out on the website. First of all, they have the foundation with the coaching staff and kind of just the franchise that you need stable franchise to make it work, right? And they have the stablest franchise, one of them, in the NFL. Outside the Patriots, they've been the most stable franchise since

Tomlin has been there, right? At least eight wins every single year. They've had personal turmoil. They've had injuries. He still makes it work. Quarterback play. I think Big Ben is going to be fine, even if he's 80% to 85%. Think 2015 Broncos, right? Like Manning was not 100% that season, clearly. And they have a great defense that made it work.

Other parts. Defense is part of it. Third in DVOA last year. Hit the passer more than any defense in the NFL last season. Eighth on special teams for DVOA. Here's the part where they need help. Luck. Luck.

Luck is a huge part of this, right, Matt? Look at last season. The Chiefs enter Week 17 with a three seed. They would have to play Tennessee at home, go to New England, go to Baltimore. That would have been their road to the Super Bowl. Instead, the Dolphins upset the Patriots. The Chiefs have the two seed. And then they get a bye and they skip the Ravens because Tennessee went ahead and beat them.

Okay? Like, it plays a factor in all of this, right? Like, luck. Go ask any Chief. They'll tell you the same thing.? Like, it plays a factor in all of this, right? Like, luck, and you, go ask any chief, they'll tell you the same thing, is that luck plays a factor in this. And with the playoffs going to seven teams this year, so only one team has a bye,

look, the Steelers are going to have to get, you know, like, a one seed's important. I don't think it's going to happen, though. So something's going to have to happen along the way in the playoffs for them to go through the wildcard, get that only since 2012. It hasn't been since 2012 that a wildcard team won a road wildcard team one or i think it was a team with with did not win the division won the super bowl that was the baltimore rivets even went to

the super bowls 2012 so it's a long haul but the value at plus 200 25 to one is huge here matt yeah that's i really like that pick uh the steelers i picked them to go over right in two pods ago great team great defense great coach that's uh i like that one a lot um i i had a little deandre hopkins over rant to do but i kind of just want to advise people that if you can bet you were talking about the playoff format this year there are so many tasty teams like every year one of my favorite things to do is find like six teams with plus money playoff odds and just play them like last year i ended up playing buffalo and tennessee along with detroit who was a stinker and a couple others san francisco was somehow plus money last year. This year with that extra slot,

those are the most fun to play along with all year, but just find some plus money ones and sprinkle on them because that format is really going to be weird. There's going to be some wrinkle about it we can't foresee. Like some team's going to rest a little bit more. Like people are going to gun for that one seed. Like there's just going to be some wrinkles. So throw some plus money. I'm sure Detroit's got a nice tasty set of odds.

Maybe your Cardinals. I'm sure there are some good ones to make that bet on. So, I would say shop around on that. Yeah. I mean, it's a lot of fun to find these odds right now. I mean, I took like Giants. I have my list right here, actually, of all the picks I've made. I mean, this is our – we've covered the whole NFL. I mean i so like i took saquon under the 1250 which is what you

told me i took kyler murray over 3900 yards i took chiefs baltimore over their win total rams panthers giants under their win total pittsburgh plus 1500 to win the super bowl i took tampa plus 1200 i don't feel great about it, but I just, the odds, you know, they dropped a bunch. You want to be on that side. I was like, I was like, let it ride.

And I took, oh, it took Giants to be the fourth, the fourth, fourth team in the NFC East plus 160. You convinced me to take them. You said about the,

yeah, plus 160. I think that, that looks even better with this Joe Judge tennis ball thing. Oh, geez.

Can we talk about that for a second? I know we're just time to go. But I just want to cede the floor to my favorite former giant. Like, what the hell is he doing with these weird training camp tweaks? He also said he wants to take the red jersey off Daniel Jones to get him pumped a little bit. Joe Judge is the most football guy of football guys. I mean, he is like straight out of the 1970s, 80s, your high school football coaches,

just a football dude, right? Do you remember Adazio, the Boston College head coach at that video that was like just dudes being dudes? Remember that video he did? It's just Joe Judge, just some dudes being dudes, some ballplayers being ballplayers. So you put a tennis ball in the defensive back's hands for the entire practice to make sure they don't hold essentially.

But like that just – I don't understand how that's going to work in an entire – are they going to wear those for the game too? He reminds me of those new bosses that come into your company and they like, you know, if you're a producer, like maybe they worked in marketing or something and they get hired for this big job and they have to walk in and be like, I know how to do things and you don't. So like, listen up. And they do some weird, goofy, off the wall stuff like that. And it never works. Like, it just it never works. This there's a reason that everybody kind of follows the same formula it's not because they're uninventive it's because football's been

around for a hundred years i know football's been around for a hundred years some of it works some of it doesn't and a lot of it you know it's something about it about sometimes just my general thoughts about football is i always refer back to what has always worked okay and you have to convince me otherwise. You just, you're like, okay. Like the Ravens,

for example, I'm more on board now than I've ever been, but I'm still like, they never want to play off game. Like, like, yeah, I kind of have to like prove it to me before I get fully on board with

that. Because that style of football has not won a Superbowl yet. Right. And even Cam Newton, I mean, he didn't run as much as Lamar Jackson did. And then he went to Superbowl either. They got close,

but did not win a Superbowl. It's funny. You mentioned the, the, the boss thing. I'm listening to a podcast right now on Spotify. I they didn't win a Super Bowl either. They got close, but did not win a Super Bowl. It's funny you mentioned the boss thing. I'm listening to a podcast right now on Spotify. I'm going to give it a shout out real quick. The Office, there's a podcast on The Office. I love the show. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

With Brian Bumgarner. Are you listening to it right now too? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think I'm always caught up. I just thought about like, you know, like when D'Angelo, when Will Ferrell became the boss and he just went in there and just like screwed the whole thing up right I mean that just reminded me right away of like when to your point about you come in you just do

everything the opposite that the old boss did right and it just doesn't work it doesn't work sometimes and you overcompensate right for your issues and you know the the Giants another fan base like well we didn't have any discipline with McAdoo and Pat Shermer so we're gonna do the other direction but this is not this is not Tom Coughlin, guys. No. Joe Judge. Tom Coughlin went to the AFC Championship game early in his tenure with Jacksonville. He was successful early on.

Yeah, he was a hard ass, but he got results. Joe Judge has no, no whatsoever, no past record of success. He was about to be like the Mississippi State defensive line coach. He became the head coach of the Giants. So let's calm down now. All right. Yeah, that podcast, by the way, is incredible. Our mutual friend Dan Rubenstein told me to listen to it.

It's been – Loved it. I never – it's incredible. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. I'll talk to you guys Monday. Hope you enjoyed the bets. And look, a lot of stuff is going to happen between now and Monday, I feel like, in the

sports world. NBA is a Board of Governors meeting today. Baseball, I think, will continue to play. But so many things to talk about in the NFL world and the sports landscape as well. Stay safe, everyone. Everyone in the path of the hurricane, please stay safe down in Texas

and Louisiana and other parts. Please, please stay safe tonight and into the morning. All right, everyone. Have a great weekend. Talk to everyone later.