Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Are The Bucs For Real Do You Trust Dallas Week 5 Best Bets

Episode Date: January 11, 2026

Former NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz and co-host Matt Ford go game-by-game through the entire NFL Week 5 slate, giving sharp ATS leans, totals, and matchup edges you can actually bet. They hit every matchup (Chiefs–Jaguars, Cowboys–Jets, Eagles–Broncos, Bucs–Seahawks, and more), flag live underdogs, and debate key injuries that swing lines. After the full slate, they lock in Geoff’s 5 Best Bets—then Geoff fires off his college football picks (including Maryland–Washington, TCU–Colorado, and Penn State–UCLA). If you want NFL predictions, betting value, and a college card, this is your one-stop watch. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Matt, you're going to love my cultural ball pick. I have one play near and dear to your heart. Let's go. I'm jumping on the turtle train. You have some gross uniforms, but I'm going to back you anyways. Oh, cool, Oregon fan. Tell me more about your gross uniform opinions. Hello, welcome to Jeff Schwartz.

This is Smarney. Jeffssonson-Marnie, presented by Draft Kings. Draft Kings, the Crown is yours. It is Thursday, October 2nd. I am Jeff Schwartz, alongside Matt Ford. Matt, I was thinking about this. Like, by the time this comes out, I will be fasting for Yom Kippur, which is Thursday, the second. Have you ever fasted before?

Like, can you, could you make it? It's about 26 hours, no water either. No liquids, no food, about 26 hours. Yeah, I've done it. It's not my favorite thing. But look at us, man. We're just in, we're in our slimming black teas for the two beautiful husky boys. Like, we look great.

You don't need to fast. You look tremendous. I don't know, Matt. I, you know, my kids are in Hebrew school and, you know, my son is being bar mitz for in two years. And I don't know. I just feel like I got a, you know, it's a good example, right? Like, I like Yom Kuporah, like fast a little bit.

Go to temple, you know, say your prayers and your, your reflection and your, you repent for the year and move it along. So if you're listening to this on Friday after you're fast, have a good, easy fast, have a good fast. And let's get to some football now, Matt. Well, in your repenting, do you think that we should. should do any repenting for betting on Bryce Young or the bills to cover 15 and a half points. Like should that come up in our sort of reflection of how our last year has come and gone?

So we were two and three last week. We should have been one and four. The bill scored 31 points in cover, though. That's the part of it. Like, I think I was right about what Buffalo would do offensively. I thought that Saints would score 14 points. Like that, that was my miscalculation there. They won 3119, correct?

I think on that, 31119. Had a chance at the end there to score, but just kind of gave up and kick a field goal and got done with it. 3119. The Panthers, though, I'll tell you what, man. Look at numbers this week. They're going to be the team that's going to be.

I don't know what they are. I don't know what they are, Matt, but they are going to be one that I think, you know, we look at throughout the year. So two and three. They're on the radar, my friends. They are squarely on my radar. They are squarely on my radar for this week again.

The Rams got home. for us. I said this to Gabe the other day. The Spanish language call for the Rams was just incredible last week. I showed him to me. My wife doesn't even like sports. She absolutely loved it. So thank you for the Rams. I appreciate that. Chiefs easy, easy cover. And Tampa Bay fought for us. Didn't get home. As we look to this week, the bucks look good again. We'll talk about all these games. As we do on Thursday, we will start from the beginning, Thursday at football, go through all the games this week. There are teams with buys. We have less games this week, Matt. At the very end, we'll hit on college football. Uh, 500 there so far this year. Not great. Not terrible.

Uh, looking to do a little bit. I got to go back to basics college football. Too many favorites. I got to go home dogs as I should do all the time in college football. Um, chaos is happening now in the sport. Or it didn't happen for the first couple weeks. We get a conference play where things happen. I'll bet on some weird things happening here in a little bit. Let's get the Thursday night football, buddy. This is a big number for Thursday night football. There is. The Rams are now laying seven here in L.A. to the 49ers. So let's see, that must mean that there's news about Brock Purdy, right? That must mean that we're looking at the banged up Mac Jones, I would imagine.

I haven't seen anything. The only thing about the only thing I've seen about Purdy is that his toe is sore and that he may or not play. And part of that is just the thing about playing these Thursday night games. Like, you sometimes just don't have time to your body recovery. Matt in the previous week. And if there's a Sunday game, I don't think they'd even be a question whether or not he would play.

But doesn't seven feel like a lot, even if Mack Jones is in? This series has been really interesting, right? I think 2000, 2001, 2002, 20, 21, and 22, the Niners won all but one of these games. The one they actually lost was the Amsterdam championship game when the Rams and Super Bowl won that year.

It's flipped. The Rams have won three and last four games. Obviously, last year the Niners were super injured, but the Rams sort of taking this robbery back over Matt. And it does feel like a lot of points, though, for, the numbers are not bad. I mean, obviously without Nick Boster, they're not as good on defense. They have some injuries in offense,

but seven feels like a ton of points. I mean, it looks like, I mean, so I'm reading the latest here. Purdy non-participant in the walkthrough. This was on Tuesday. So Jones appears to be, who is appearing to going to start this one. The 49ers, this is just a bad spot. Like, I get why this number is so high. I think there's a chance, like, if Mack Jones is banged up, like, he's still dealing

with a knee sprain and he's, you know, he's walking into a potential trap here. I just want no part of this. I don't think there's any value in taking the Niners in a game that, you know, if it goes south, like we could be looking at the depth chart for whoever the third string quarterback is there. Yeah. What I have done actually, by the way, I actually bet on, um, I did a teaser.

I just did the same game teaser. I took the Rams. I moved the total up and bet the under. That's why I play this game. That's smart. I think I have a question for you. At the beginning of the year, I think I told you this. You know, we were when we were talking about our teams that, you know,

are overrunners and stuff. I had the Rams rated as the second best team of the league and this like weird metric that I created. Yeah. And now like we're looking at Philly. Like is there if, are the Rams possibly the best team in the league right now? Like I don't think they're getting a lot of buzz

because they lost to Philly in that goofy Jordan Davis game but they should have won that. Obviously, like I kind of think we should sort of be treating them with a little bit more respect than that this seven actually that kind of makes sense, especially if it gets the backup. But I think the Rams might be the best team of the league right now. Better than Phil.

I guess first half against Philly. What with the Lions right now? No? Buffalo. There's some candidates, I think, best team. Rams are one of the candidates. We were both high on the Rams. The problem was Stafford's injury, right? That was the only problem that as we didn't know how he was going to be this year.

So far, he's good. He's getting better each week as he's getting more reps, right? Week one was a little bit tough. He didn't play all pre-season. Now it looks like the offense in rhythm. Puckuna Kua has 1,000 targets and receptions. And they're better than Niners, especially with how beat up the Niders are a short week. Niner's on the road now.

I like Brian Robinson over 19-a-half rushing yards on draft Kings as of right now. Again, short week, how much will McCaffrey be able to go just realistically, right? It's not hurt at all, Matt, but again, older player short week. Brian Robinson, probably a little fresher an opportunity there to get

some carries in this game. So the over 19.5 on draft kings right now is something that I'm looking to play. And I did play that same game teaser. I took the Rams yesterday from 6.5 down to half a half a half to the total. It was at 47.5, now 46 and up to 53 and a half,

and hit the under on that as That's how I'm playing this game. I think that that would be a wise way to do it if you really want to get down on Thursday. Yeah, okay. Fair enough. I like that you have action. Yeah, I think the ramps probably win. It's just, I don't know, I don't feel great about taking San Francisco getting points there.

No. All right. Speaking of a game that no one feels good about, the Vikings, they, I don't know if you knew this, but if you start Carson Wentz, you actually have to stay abroad. They just, they force you to go international. So now the Vikings are based in Europe. So they're playing there for a second week in a row, and they're hosting Dylan Gabriel and the Browns.

This line has moved all over the place. I was really hoping it would stay lower by the time we got to record today. It is now at four and a half for the Vikings. And I'm still tempted to take Minnesota. But it was three and a half this morning. I saw three and a half this morning. I was doing my research, Matt. This is when I was eyeing to hit the Vikings here,

even though we have a strict don't bet on Carson Wenz policy. He posed terrible. day. The Browns are a mess. Like Gabriel, look, I hope he does well, Matt, but I don't think he is a quarterback in NFL that elevates their team, right? Correct. He is a quarterback that's going to just complete the ball who's ever open, short,

underneath, intermediate. You're not going to really be stressed out, especially against his Vikings defense, Matt. This feels like a very tough start for him to make. You mentioned the Vikings have stayed in London, right? And overseas, they played Ireland. last week. They've been in London, I believe, right? They went back. I don't know where they're staying. They've been over there for the entire time.

The Browns are flying over there later in the week and it's a very tough start for a rookie to face his floor as defense, especially off a loss, right, when they didn't play terribly well last weekend. I would, it's not up right now because it's, as we record this on Wednesday, Dylan Gabriel underpassing yards, I don't care what it's at. It's going to be like 187 yards. I don't care. Give me the under. I'm going straight under in this game from him. I think it's tough contest. We'll put Minnesota as a maybe. But, yeah, I mean, three and a half would have been a lot better. I just, again, playing these international games, I tried to skip them, Matt.

We know that. They're weird. And, yeah, I try to skip them. I did win on Pittsburgh last week because I faded. It was like, dude, the fade game was strong last week. It's back. Last year, there was so much public winning that I lost money on the people that I fade. and this weekend college football in the NFL it went uh i went 10 and 0 fading them they didn't

want a single pick it was it was great that's i may not have i may not have faded someone who bragged about their record the previous week in college football and then i faded said person that gave out six wagers matt i put him in a round robin parley of fours and they lost all six wagers so I made a substantial amount of money on Saturday night. It was Oregon won and then I won this parlay that paid out. I mean, I feel like you're telling me about a dream you had right now. I put in, I think, I think I put in 225 and I won 2,500. Wow, nice.

Thank you for the fates. I appreciate that. One of them was one of them was, oh yeah, I'm in. One of them was the Steelers game was one of the ones I faded because they had the Vikings. I was like, whatever. You're waging on this game at 9 o'clock in the morning and on Carson Wentz. Good luck on that. So that was awesome for me as well.

Yeah, I'll pay for food next time. Well, no, game pays because it's under the blue duck. That's what we're doing. Yeah, maybe. Back to Vikings Browns for just a second here. I do want to point out I get why we don't want to bet a game like this. I think you're right in everything you've said. that the Vikings, they've obviously got this advantage of having been over there.

I just feel like the Browns are at a different point in their season now when they're playing Gabriel. Like if this was Flacco, I'd probably like at least have some concern that the Browns could cover this number. But they're not trying, like they're seeing what they've got in this guy, right? Like they're putting them in like a really difficult situation. They're not trying to win this game or else they would probably stick with their current quarterback, right? And the other thing that's just kind of noteworthy that's kind of crazy is like the Browns, since 2023, I just picked a random year. They're actually above 500 at home.

They're 11 and 8 at home, and they're 4 and 16 on the road. And I guess this isn't technically a road game, but it is an overseas game. And I think that for whatever reason, like defensively, like their identity, maybe it's their preparation, whatever. Like, they're just not as good when they're not at home. So I actually think this is a pretty decent play, even if it does mean I have to wake up at 5.30 in the morning to watch Carson Wentz. I don't know about that. 6.30. Oh, 6.30.

Okay. Okay. Unless, that's, that's, I'm awake anyway. Yeah. You're awake anyways. So we'll do maybe because, uh, we'll do maybe. Because I don't look a ton this week. So yeah.

God, it's a lot of, a lot of talk of Dylan Gabriel versus, uh, I know. Well, let's move. Let's move on to another titanic quarterback matchup of Spencer Rattler and Jackson Dart. Uh, the Saints, it kind of feels like this is their moment. They're, their favorites for probably the last time this year. they're actually now laying one and a half to the giants. I can't imagine we have a side here, but the floor is yours if you've got one.

Yeah, I don't really know what the things are a favorite. Okay, so if I tell you like, if I tell you a game is even money, which is basically what this is, right? As they're saying, on neutral field, it's probably about even. Wouldn't you want one side to have something that's elite, right? Like to choose a side.

If I told you to pick a game straight up, right? You'd be like, okay, the Giants have one elite thing in this game. That's their pass rush and their defensive line. It's an elite defensive line. That's it. Like, no one else has anything else in this game that's overly elite, except the Giants' defensive line. That alone, I think, can get them to win and cover this game.

Now, of course, Jackson Dart making his first road start. It's not a spot that I really want to back the Giants, Matt, but I do that the Giants are better than the Saints. And then they're better, plus they have their defensive line. Now, neighbors being out is a huge problem. So you can't, I don't think you wager on the Giants. Matt, but I think they are the better team and not only home field advantage matters very much.

It's not going to be very loud or packed in this game. There are a ton of Giants fans, I would imagine, that live in the South, they're coming to this game. But it's Jackson Darts' first road start, which is certainly different than being at home. He's a little beat up. I heard his hamstring last week. We don't know the status of how healthy he is

and his legs were great. And the other thing, too, I want to bring up is, look, I understand there was excitement because Jackson Dart is not Russell Wilson. Okay? I get that. But the way that we have, not we, media, has talked about him, Matt, it was a little aggressive for how he played.

He was 13 of 20 for 111 yards. He rushed for an additional 54 yards in that touchdown, obviously they went for 15 yards. They're talking about him like he is the next great Hall of Fame quarterback. Like his PR people deserve all the credit in the world for how we talk about him. He wasn't that good. He was fine against a Chargers team that couldn't do anything because our offensive line is so big up right now.

So I think that we just pass on this game. I think the Giants are the better team. Well, and not only that, he left the game. He was injured and like, you know, there's a lot of talk about. Yeah, but it's like, you know, can that style even hold up? I think they're dying. I think our friends of draft kings are just dying for Giants money. I think that's what this line is because no one who's going to take the Saints

is a favorite. it, I think they feel pretty confident in the one and a half. But having said that, I definitely do not want to bet on the Saints. But this one caught my attention a little bit more than I would have liked to admit, you know, because what is this team without neighbors? And, you know, the Saints, if they're going to win a game, it's going to be this one, it's going to be at home. You know, we're five weeks into the year.

They've appeared competent at times. They hung with Buffalo for three quarters. Like they're not a bad team. And I mean, they are a bad team, but they're a performance. professional team. But I think that's a pass. God, we've got to pick up our pace a little. Maybe this is one.

The Raiders at the Colts. The Colts are laying seven. I kind of feel like the Colts might be the side here, but I, you know. Oh, really? Yeah. I mean, they're just. Oh. I just don't have said Raiders.

Okay. Well, go ahead. I mean, I just think the Colts. My case is mostly that the Raiders essentially like have to win this game or that's the end of Pete Carroll's first season of like any sort of success, right, Matt? And, you know, last week they should have won that game, right? Gentie got going a little bit,

which was great to see. He hadn't really got going yet, so he started running the ball a little bit better and sort of gotten a flow of things. Dude, one take I'm absolutely right about is Gino Smith. I did not understand. I still understand, like, there is a big difference in Gino Smith believers

between, like, the analytics crew that's like, because EPA is really high and like the film guys are like, fine, I guess. There's a lot of people love Gino Smith. He's not been good, which is what I thought. He wasn't going to be good. I mean, the Seahawks jettisoned him and Brought Sam Darno who's playing well, right?

So I'm concerned about them on the road here, Matt, but this is sort of like the last draw for them. Seven points are a lot in the NFL. It's a lot of points. They're cold seven points better than the Raiders, really, Matt? No. I think you might have talked me into it, actually. Full touchdown, you know, the Gino.

Doors thing. The Raiders have just had like a rough, a rough stretch here. They're not very good, but I agree. This kind of is their last stand. They obviously got Gentie going last week. Given the rest of the slate this week, we might have to bump this into the movies, to be honest. Look, the look ahead line for this game was one and a half. It's seven now. Wow. I think we got a pencil to the Raiders, buddy. I think this is, I don't think that's a bad play. I did. I did. I put them in the maybes. Done. Great.

Didn't think we'd get there. I mean, I think I just am sort of walking back. I was pretty bullish on the Raiders coming into this season. But they've just looked so miserable in the last couple weeks. Honestly, though, like the Bears game, like, they definitely could have won that one. Their offensive line at least kept Gentie up right last week. Yeah. Maybe they'll turn it around here.

Okay. I'm down with that one. Let's definitely put that one through. Denver at Philly is next. Philly with an impossible three and a half number here. Denver, I guess, looked impressive Monday night, or maybe it was just that Cincinnati is just that terrible. Yeah.

I think I'm leaning Philly here, but I'm curious where you are. I think Philly is the play, man. Yeah. I think it is. Like the Broncos offensively, a lot of it feels like the passing game, a little smoking mirrors at times, right,

where it's not, they're not getting a ton of traditional passing game. It's the play action pass, right, and sort of targeted areas to throw the ball. Run the football, they're fine. Their offense line is fine, but it's not been great. And they just played a bad bill.

Their defense, by the way, again, has not been what is advertised, what he thought it was going to be, Matt. And the Eagles are freaking good, dude. Like, all they do is win. And I know this way, we need to cover this game, too. But I think Eagles are just much better. Broncos on the road now, on a short week.

I like Philly here minus 3.5. Denver's strength, too, is that they take away, you know, the passing game. They're good at getting pressure. They're good. You know, their corners are great. Philly's not throwing the ball. And they're winning without throwing the ball. So I think, you know, I don't think the game play on the super complicated.

Denver, weirdly, hasn't won in Philadelphia since John Elway was the quarterback. That's just, that feels no pretty. Well, I mean, to be fair, to be fair, they used to play once every eight years in Philly. So, like, that, that, you know, they only play, do I have that five times? then? Sure. One and six all time. So yeah,

that's fair enough. There you know. Still a dramatic stat. You didn't have to undercut me there. I thought that was pretty good stat. It's not like I came up with a stat, by the way,

it was our friend Evan Abrams at Action Award. Yeah, I just think that, you know, what the Broncos do well. Yeah. You know by Evan Abrams like a Christmas griff, like a holiday gift at some point?

Yeah, maybe I'll text him the next time you're doing an extended monologue and see what he wants. Because I use his information on every show, including this. Tomorrow I'll use it again.

Shout out to her friend Evan. Yeah, okay, let's put Philly through. I think that's a good play. Wait, what are you doing tomorrow without me? What do you mean? You're going to use it tomorrow. What show you're doing without me? Oh, to prepare for our friend Nick Wright's show.

Oh, oh. He does his gambling show and we help him make his big. He's an Evan Abrams guy as well. Well, I don't know if Nick knows that, Nick, if you're watching. That's where all these great ideas come from. why would you think they were my own anyway. All right. Well,

speaking of Nick, he was very happy about his chiefs beating the Baltimore Ravens last week. Lamar Jackson currently doubtful. This line, man, keeps moving. This was, I think the Ravens were favored by nine

when this opened. And now they're plus one and a half at home to Houston. And this has moved even today. Like it went from, you know, the Texans were short dogs, but go ahead. It sounds like you got a side here.

Well, no, no. So here's a tweet from someone covering the Ravens, ready, from today. This is Wednesday. Ravens not taking part in open practice today. Lamar Jackson, Rokane Smith, Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey, Nate Wiggins, and then Patrick Ricard is also out as well. It doesn't count all the guys injured reserve, Matt. It's just, it's, they're a mass unit right now.

The thing about those, the Texans just suck. I'm not dead on Texans. I'm not been in the Texans. I'm not, I don't, I'm not doing it. I, I just refuse to bet on them. I, I mean, Matt, it was 9-0 against the Tennessee Titans, like in the third quarter of that game. For the fourth quarter, it was 6-0, 6-0, 6-0. After the 4th quarter against Tennessee Titans, and they scored a touchdown,

touchdown, touchdown, and make it 26-0. I'm not betting on, I'm not betting. If anything, I bet on the Ravens in the spot. Me too. It's like, they could still give the ball to Derek Henry 50 times. Like that's still possible. Like they could still throw it to Andrews. They'd still like their defense.

Sure, their defense is in pieces, but like what's Houston going to do? I look, this earlier today, this was, or maybe it was yesterday, the Ravens were slight home favorite. So it was like two or three. But and I was like, maybe we take the Texans. But now I think the value is only on the Ravens. And I'm just going to double check one more time to make sure it hasn't moved. Yeah, it's still one way half. Yeah.

And I think like the thing is to, Baltimore is body language I didn't like Matt in during that game and I don't know if it's getting much better with all the guys out this week like it could be a it could just be an ugly game for that reason so I just we stay away from this game in my opinion but I would definitely not take Houston yeah I think we have to stay away

but this is highly on my radar to take Baltimore if this line keeps moving okay still moving through the one o'clock games Browns Browns at Lions I think is what we have next. Let's see, or wait, that's just... That's just...

Yeah, I'll take that one again. The next one we've got is Cowboys at Jets. Jets are two and a half point home dogs. Man, Dallas coming off of an emotional high. What do you think here? Well, at the over 47.5, no...

Cowboys can't stop anybody, right? Oh, man. I feel like they're just tempting us with two and a half. They're just like... I think at two and a half, they want you to take the Cowboys, right? Yeah. They definitely want you to take Dallas,

and I feel like I'm walking right into the trap by thinking it's not a bad idea. And I'm really unimpressed with the Jets, man. Like, I don't know what they do well. Well, so here's it. They do nothing well, and they're super undiscipline. and they're super penalties, poor play, lack of what feels like any sort of discipline

or like cohesive plan of what they're doing. You made this point many times, Matt. Is Aaron Glenn a good defensive coach? And they have good defensive players. They're playing poorly on defense, though, right? Like, if you have a specialty as a head coach, you need that side to be playing well. Ben Johnson's offensive guy.

The offense is coming along in Chicago, right? Aaron Glenn to the defense guy. He's in charge of the defense, I believe, right? They look bad. They're not playing well. And the Cowboys, we know offensively can move, right? They're going to score a ton of points. Number one in the NFL and yards per game and number 32

and defensive yards per game. They're terrible in defense. So, you know, what are the Jets going to do offensively? I mean, fields look bad. He had the one, obviously, a nice rush, on a broken play against the dolphins. I don't know, man. Dallas is a maybe probably,

but I don't know if I could play it though. Yeah. Justin Fields, this is incredible. When his opponent scores more than 20 points, Fields is 0 and 25 straight up. So if it's, I mean,

he's just, he's right in the middle. And this Jets team just feels dead to me. It's a good spot technically, but this is kind of where DAC has just done well. off of night games. The Cowboys are six and one straight up as a road favorite off of a night game since 2019. Interesting stat.

So look, they know how to do, they know how to win games in this spot. I think the book here is saying take the jets. But if we've learned anything from the last couple of years, it's that you just don't trust these home dogs blindly like we used to. I know. So Dallas feels a little square to be. me but I feel like in other years it would have been three giving us the three and there's not there's not doing it this year why isn't it like why isn't this higher why isn't this three and a half for people

that enamored with fields I just I don't know I've never seen it I don't know the cowboys maybe I don't know man I don't know this feels like a stay away to me they're just there's there's something off that's just a really fishy line I'm I'm I'm fun to stay away okay here's here's one I think unfortunately Jeff we're gonna oh geez Miami dolphins are one and a half point road favorite to anyone in the NFL, and that includes your Carolina Panthers. I think we have to do it, buddy. I don't want to. I don't even want to talk about this.

But I think are we, like the dolphins without Tyree Kill in an opposing stadium, we're going to say are better than, what, four and a half points better than the Panthers? What are we talking about? Yeah. And I guess the theory is, of course, with us in this place. I'm sure Evan has a stat on this. Like, you get being by 30 the week before,

you typically play well the next week. Like that's sort of, what if you beat a team by 30 the week before that? How does that work? So let's see about Carolina, right? Like, so they were down 273 to Arizona, scored 19 straight points, lost 27, 22. Then they beat the Falcons 30-0,

and then got absolutely throttled by the Patriots, 42 to 13. Really, it was 42-7, right? or 42-6, before any dog game and scored late for the Panthers there. I don't know what they are, man. I don't know what they are. And they got to figure that out. And it's not good right now.

But the dolphins, we know what the dolphins are. They're not very good, right? They'd have the Jets come back and nearly cover that game there. I had Jets on a teaser. It was nice. Thank you Jets for coming back and scoring late. One thing worth noting is not up right now. But the dolphins allow the most yards of tight ends this season.

They are, they have a lot of ton of yards. Mason Taylor had a bunch the other day. So when the numbers come up, wherever the Panthers' tight end is, I should know this, I don't. Bet the over for that player. And without,

who's their tight end? I think it is. Without, I think it's trouble, yeah, without, and without Tyree kill and offense, like,

where is the explosiveness from the, from the Dolphins' offense? like it's waddle is a good player but he's not Tyreek Hill like explosive down the field like Waddle's more of the slot guy right the horizontal player who's the vertical player on this offense and the answer is nobody nobody now the Panthers again identity wise have no identity

but you're basically backing him off the worst game of the year at home against the dolphins who are off a short week they won a game finally I'm okay with playing Carolina here as well Yeah, I mean, I hate it, but I think we have to. They also, I believe this has moved a bit. Like, I think the Panthers were originally short favorites and it's moved. So you always like to bet against the team that goes through the zero and becomes the favorite. Weirdly, Mike McDaniels been incredible as a road favorite.

Seven and two as an away favorite just straight up since you got there. No, that's the wrong year. I actually think he might be undefeated. So, yeah, they've been really good in this spot. He's due. He's due for lost, Matt. That's the way to look at it. There we go, he's due. I don't know.

We have to at least advance this one, but I absolutely hate it. We do. I think we need like a pallet cleanse before we get to the four o'clocks. We'll take a break. If you're watching us, we'll be, stay tuned.

We'll be back in a second. Audio will be back after the short break. All right, we're back. Jeff Schwartz, Matt Ford. We have the afternoon slate. We have two AFC big dogs playing night games this week, and then we'll get to college football. Matt, you're going to love my college football pick.

I have one play near and dear to your heart. Let's go. I'm jumping on the turtle train. Great high, the black and gold. Let's go. You have some gross uniforms, but I'm going to back you anyways. Oh, cool, Oregon fan. Tell me more about your gross uniform opinions.

Okay. Why don't we talk about gross? Well, we have excellent uniforms. Excellent uniforms. Continue on with the NFL, please. Speaking of hideously disgusting, the Arizona Cardinals are seven and a half point favorites to the Tennessee Titans.

Must we? Oh, please. I don't know. I was going to say pass. Continue. No, no, no. Must we discuss this? I don't.

Oh, no. There's no chance we're betting the Cardinals. And I am forbidding us to bet on the Titans ever again. Until Bill, until Brian Callahan is replaced. Whatever, it doesn't matter. Which might be this week. Yeah.

And they're like replacing more play callers and doing all those crazy stuff. Yeah. Oh, okay. Let's go to Buck Seahawks. This number fascinates me. Three and a half. The Seahawks are home. A mass unit in Tampa that's kind of underrated.

I mean, Baker's shaking some stuff off. Obviously, the receiving core, there's a lot going on there. Lucky Irwin. Looks like he might miss some time. He's been fantastic for them. But am I crazy to still like Tampa anyway? I like Tampa a lot in this game, Matt. And the thing I, okay, here's the thing.

So Seattle's one of these teams that's like, I was looking at some stuff. Like I got to redo my, I got to call over to get my DVOA account renewed, essentially to look at the DVOA stuff. But the thing is I've seen like, you know, In late likewise, Seattle's doing a great job, right, Matt? I think the EPA, DVOL stuff is really high, but I just don't know if they're as good as the numbers.

Like, they feel like a team that is going to be a team that we readjust this throughout the season, more and more, Matt. And, like, we know JSN is really good, right? We know they have good running backs. Donald's been good. I don't know if he's been great. their offensive line is at times good and bad they're fine defensively again like they're fine

to me like I think they're just fine like they're not exceptional one thing and Tampa does miss Mike Evans but they return Tristan Wirffs so huge I just think Tampa's I think if these teams were to play on neutral field in the middle of the country I'd much rather be backing Tampa Bay

than back in Seattle and I get three and a half, which does sort of worry me here. Why is it three and a half? You tell me that, again, this game neutral field is what, one and a half? Seale's favorite by a point a half or a point maybe.

I think home field now is now two, Matt, more than three in the NFL, but still, I get that hook here. I think Tampa's is better. It's that simple. I love this one. This is my favorite of the week.

Obviously the concern like, well, Seattle's got the extra rest, Tampa's beat up, whatever. The thing that we really haven't seen much of is we haven't seen bad Darnold yet. And the way that bad Darnold happens, I mean, you look at their schedule,

the Cardinals, Saints, the Steelers, the 49ers that they lost to, not exactly a murderer's row. This is a different kind of defensive line. And I know they have some injuries with Can't See and, you know, they've all over the field, frankly. But like, they're going to have to deal with a lot of pressure right up the middle.

It made Jalenhart super uncomfortable last week with a much better offensive line, even with their injuries in Philly. I just think this is one of those where it's like Sam Darnold's like, it's running for his life because the pocket's collapsing immediately. And, you know, when they're not able to incorporate both the running backs, get time for Donald to throw,

things can look a lot different. And Tampa, you know, they're coming off every, every game they're in it. So, you know, even if we're down 20 points in the fourth quarter, I think we still have a chance. Baker 15 and 8 is an underdog,

but it speaks for itself. Every week you watch Tampa sort of bridge a big gap. That is one thing. They do battle like crazy. Yeah. Like they fight. And like they're a team that, like, when we talk about these teams as we go through this list,

like we're going to have to, let's take Carolina's down like a touchdown, you know, six points, let's say like that. Like we're like, oh, please, Bryce, get this stuff. Yeah, we got it. Like, when you watch a play, even last week, like we were texting, you know, the Eagles and the Eagles game, we got, like, we thought they would score.

It's what they've done all season long. That's what Baker always does. It didn't work out. It happens. They were the wrong side if they were to cover that game anyways. but there's always faith with what they can do. So I'm flying back in Tampa here, a good quality team.

We know what their quarterback is. We know what their team is. And I'm fine back in them here. I think they're due for a statement too. Like you look back now and it's like they nudged the Falcons. They snuck past the Texans. They snuck past the Jets. They lose to Philly.

Like I kind of feel like this is the game where they come out and put an ass kicking on a good team. And everyone's like, whoa, Tampa. Didn't know you had it in you. So I like Tampa. It's a fun money line play. Okay. It's 145 on DK.

Okay. Lions Bengals, 10 and a half points for the Lions. Oh, my God, as road favorites. Wow. That's quite a steep line. No. No, of course not. You can't take either side of year, but like,

man, that is crazy. Who would have thought? The Bengals are just, they're bad, bad. They can't block. They can't block the quarterback backup. quarterback can't play defense um the lions we should take them last week that was the better bet than the bills i think but um the lions are likely to win this game by a lot of points that's that's that's my that's my take yeah that's a pretty good take i mean there were these rumors that maybe they

should maybe they're going to talk about uh there there have just been trade rumors uh mike florio reporting they showed Cincinnati showed interest in uh trading for russell wilson maybe james Winston, do you think that would actually matter? Do you think Browning is the problem and one of these guys could come in and at least give them a chance? No. Chance for what? I think because Baltimore is playing so poorly, they can win the division they think. Is that what, that's what we're taking right here, I guess?

Speak about that, Matt. Because Pittsburgh is off this week, so we're not going to actually get to their games. Pittsburgh to win the division. and any any thought on on adding that to the portfolio no i don't i don't buy it at all it's actually it's funny because that was it was plus 155 now it was nearly 270 two days ago in draft kings so people are hammering that right now it's minus 135 for the ravens i think we can actually get on the ravens right now the ravens are minus money still that is crazy i was going to make the case it was minus 200 the other day. Yeah, I mean, it was minus

500 at the beginning of the season or something. I mean, I still think Lamar is apparently trying to play this week. If he does play, they'll beat the Texans and then all of a sudden their game back. So I just think every dollar spent on the Steelers is just a loss, but I

hate the 135. I mean, that's, that's, I don't see any value in that. You can get, you can put the belt when the AFC East. Who's winning the South, you think? Well, I was going to bring that up

if we're going to talk divisions, because the Jags at plus 130 feels like a decent bet if we don't believe in the Colts, which I definitely don't. So if we wanted, this is just for fun. So, Chiefs,

bills, Ravens, Jaguars, 10 to 1 parlay right now to win the division. Why don't we just take the Chiefs plus 150? Like, have we done that yet? We had more chiefs? We had the chiefs.

I think we had them in the in the, in the, in the, in the preseason. We can add more. I don't care. Or add more chiefs. I don't know. We did not do chiefs to win the division. So let's, yeah, we did. Minus 1.15.

You want to add some more chiefs division? I'm fine with that. Yeah, definitely. I mean, we, we, we have $1,200 still left. We could do that. We could do Baltimore. I mean, you can do, we can do Pittsburgh. I just, I don't buy it.

at all. I think Pittsburgh is going to fall apart. Okay. So the other idea was if we're not doing it, we don't want to do Pittsburgh. It's not up right now, actually. Was Tom and Coach the year, but as we're talking right now, the awards markets are down. Coach here was like 18 to 1, Matt. If they win division, he's up for Coach of the Year and he hasn't won't coach of the year yet.

So why don't we do this? Why don't we put 100 on Kansas City plus 150 to win the division? We'll do it that. We'll add to the portfolio there on that one. And let's move along to the next game. I'm going to introduce his next game because it's the commanders at the Chargers. Your commanders playing the Chargers. And we were talking before the show about whether or not you're going to go to this game. And I understand that getting from where you live in Santa Monica to SoFi Stadium is not very fun.

But the Chargers don't come to Los Angeles very often. I mean, the commanders don't come to L.A. very often. Man, I feel like you got to find a way to get there. I mean, you have to go with Hank, though. You have to go. It has to be a blue duck production. Both commanders fans going to the game. And, and just enjoying watching your boys play the Chargers. Look, man, we, we would probably have to clear that with a few of the shows that we make on Mondays.

But it's not a bad idea. I really went back and forth. I was going to get tickets about a month ago, actually. And then it was right after, when the Packers game happened and Jade and, got banged up. I was like, look, I love this team, but I'm not going to watch Marcus Mario to lose by 15. That's fair. But it looks, this was a good spot from, from Hank and others on Twitter today. Jaden Daniels' mom said she's going back to California this weekend because Jaden's going to play. He did get cleared at practice. And am I crazy to think that if we're

catching the three here for Jaden Daniels against pretty much anybody, including this Chargers offensive line that's pretty banged up that it might not be a bad play to take Washington here. I think if Daniels is back, we take Washington plus a three, Matt. The Chargers offensive line is a problem.

And they've allowed 45 pressures the last two games, Matt, 45. The next highest is Joe Flacco, 35. And all it's out, six weeks, most likely. It's bad inside, and now

you have two backup tackles, a bad interior, Herbert's getting beat up. Daniel's coming back will get this team a little fired up. They didn't play terribly well against the Falcons defensively. I'll say a lot of big explosives as well. No chance offensively with Mario in his second start. That's why they're backups, right? You split one-on-one. It's all you can ask for.

And I get three points here. This will be a very pro-Commander's crowd in Los Angeles. Every commander's fan will be there, except you and Hank that's in the region. and I get three points with the way that I think Washington will play coming off this injury and a beat-up Chargers offensive line. Can your defense line rush the passer? Kind of. They've,

last week I got to say Pennix, they got some good pressure on Pennix, and he just hung in there. And he just threw the ball and took a lot of shots. And, you know, good for him. I hadn't seen him do that before. So we'll see. I think in the last year, Washington was two and two at this point. They sort of took off from there.

And you know, you got to think the defense is going to get a little better. The thing I was just trying to look for it, I know that Lab McConkey's been kind of quiet this year. Washington's big weakness is like these little dump-offs over the middle where there are suddenly 40 yards of green space. And I would assume that this might be the game where he can make some noise. I think this is probably a good overspot if Daniels is playing. 47 and a half is pretty high.

But I think this is going to be a very fun game that comes down to the last possession if if Daniels is on the field so I don't hate the three if we were to take that number but this isn't a must I don't think especially Terry McLaren probably not going to play would be my guess and that obviously it's not great for Washington we it's we have this this document that gets put together by by Hank and there's like not a lot of ton of notes in here except for the commander it's like a giant like Sam Cosby notes then he's coming back to practice It's awesome. Yeah.

So I don't we have any other teams have guys coming back to practice. I don't know because it's not in the dock. All right. Let's get to the next team. He also went to Texas, Sam Cosmy. So Hank's really like to. Oh, he did.

You're right. On that beat. The double here. All right. We got two primetime games coming up here, Sunday and Monday. Let's start the Sunday at a football game. I don't know, man.

I don't know what we do here. Nothing. Yeah. Patriots. This has bounced around a bit. I want to double check it. they're going to Buffalo and this is either 7.5 or 8.5. It's 8.5 now back to 8.

And a half is what I thought too. Man, I don't know. I don't know what to do with that. I don't think New England can keep this one close, but I'm not sure I want to lay the 8 and a half with Buffalo either, do you? So do we, who do we tease the Patriots, you mean the bills with? Who do we tease the bills with?

The bills are two and a half? Do we take Tampa up to, do we take Tampa? Do we take Tampa to 9.5? Or do we take like or do we do Panthers out to 7.5?

No. What about the Lions or the Cardinals? We could tease the Cardinals down to 1.5 against Tennessee. We could do that. Yeah.

Pass. Commanders up to 8.5. Not bad. Not bad. Yeah. I mean, I think the play is you tease Buffalo. I'm surprised it's still eight and a half, then you can still tease it.

You take it two and a half and you just call it a day. That's, I think, what you do. Okay. Yeah, I mean, this is, man, this is moving to eight in some places. This is just like always bouncing around this number. New England, to be fair, has played Buffalo tough in Buffalo last couple of years. Yep. Yeah, so just like it's been a nemesis for Josh Allen.

And obviously, Mike Vable is a little different than what he's had. But then, Buffalo, look, scored 31 points last week, man, and don't cover that. I'm surprised, man. I thought we would get the 31 points. I didn't think we would get the other part of it, which is, you know, the Saints scoring 19. Yeah. Yeah, I think they'll get up for this one in a way that they didn't for the Saints game. Rick May has covered both times against Josh Allen.

I don't know. I don't have a slide here. I think this is... Also I think, I also think, too, with like the... Oh, Brock Purdy is out, by the way, for Thursday. Oh, that line just moved to seven and a half. Yeah, I just saw this, by the way, just as we update this as we go. But if you listen to this now, you might know already, but he's out, ruled out.

This is a Thursday night football problem where he just, he'd probably be ready for Sunday, but his toe is too sore to play a Thursday. That's just the unfortunate nature of Thursday night of football. Speaking about the Tyreekill injury was so gross, dude. One of the worst. He was like sideways and dislocated knees are really bad injuries. I was explaining my kids like what dislocation means. And they thought like your bone.

I'm like, it's not your bone. Like you tear everything around your bone. Your bone is like fine essentially. There's some damage there. But like you tear everything around your bone and you got to fix all of it. It was nasty. It was a weird. an injury and

you have to surgery immediately when you have a knee when you have a knee to dislocation and stuff it's so gross and he'll never come back to say him I know they said

he's gonna he'll be back for next year no I mean maybe there's better recovery methods now but that was just a gross injury I dislocated my big toe and my ankle

I know something about and I mean you had you do a finger in high school but that is what this one it's a little crooked see oh I put it I put it back

in the middle of the game I think if I was older, I just would have had the trainer do it, but it was high school. You don't have a trainer. I just popped it back in, like, in the middle of game, you get playing. Wow. What do you do? That's high school for you. Yeah, that's the mark of a champion right there.

When I disliked in my big toe, our doctor with the Giants, we were on the field. And the trainer was like, let's get Schwartz back. Let's like, let's get him an x-ray. Like, let's like take care of it. Because my toe was stuck on top of it. The toe, like, was on top. top of itself. Oh.

It was like, do you, I never said you the picture? You want to see a picture? You may have. It's, it was like on top of itself. It was on top of itself.

It was on top of itself. And the doctor was trying to put it back into place on the field. And I was, it hurt a lot. And I was like, and the trainer was like, can we not do this right now, please?

And the doctor, like, wanted to put it back in the worst way, but it was stuck, which actually is a good thing, which means you didn't tear everything. If it's stuck, if it moves back into place easily, it means you torn everything around it.

But, Yeah, my toe was like on top of itself for like 20 minutes. It took them a while to get it back into place. Wow. Yeah. I had to go back and I had to go. I had to go back. I got on the cart, went back to the locker room, went to the x-ray room.

It wasn't hurting and I tried to walk on my heel. And they're like, don't do it. Don't do it. It doesn't hurt anymore. Did it tons of pain because you turned the bottom of your foot up. And then I got back to the locker room and it was, again, it was stuck. which actually means, again, like when you dislocate something, that means the ligaments and tendons around it tear, right?

That's why it moves so much, right? And so in this case, it wasn't as bad as it could have been. It was kind of stuck in place, which means that everything didn't really tear. So they had to actually, they had to inject my toe with lighty cancer. I didn't feel anything. And then one guy held my upper leg, one guy held my lower part of my leg,

and then one guy tried to put it back in place. It took like a little bit of time to, like, get it back in place. So it was probably like 20 minutes. Oh, my God. And this is just like during the game This is like, you know You're just in the back of the locker room It was a preseason game

Yeah, I heard about the jets, yeah It popped out like I The MetLife turf You know the the Odell The neighbor's injury My foot I was anchoring a bulrush And my foot like went into the ground

And my toe just like popped out I thought I broke it It was like oh I broke my toe The trainer told me I was full of shit Of course I'm like oh you're fine I'm pretty sure I'm not But okay And then they took my shoe

often, lo and behold, dislocated big toe. So the MetLife turf, since you brought it up, it's now claimed, you know, the two best Giants receivers in their, I think both in their second year. What are we doing here? Like, is this, is this like an actually, like, this is the worst turf? Like, how is it so bad? Why does this keep happening? So I honestly, Matt, I don't know.

I don't know. I don't know why the turf is different to other places that don't have as many injuries. I don't know what to tell you. I don't have a great answer for you. I think turf sucks in general. I've made this point many, many times. I'd rather, like, if the commanders, the Eagles, the Browns, the Packers, the Steelers can all have grass. Penn State has grass.

The Oregon just played at. You can have grass in New York. Baltimore? No, Buffalo is turf. Buffalo is turf. Baltimore is grass. Baltimore went back to grass, though. Forever they had turf.

Remember, they went back to grass. You can play on grass. And I understand with, now, with a multipurpose stadium. with Jets and Giants, I get the turf part of it, right? Like, it's hard to probably, especially if you have a game like Sunday, Monday, like you have a, you know, one play Sunday, one plays Monday, which is rare, but does happen. It'd be hard to paint everything out and put the new logos on. I get, I totally get that type of stuff.

But most other places should have, should have grass, in my opinion. I just, but the Panthers going from turf, from grass to turf makes no sense, other than obviously you want to have soccer and other events there. but I think grass would solve all these problems, but I'm not in charge. And look, people will point out that Tyreek Hill got hurt on grass. Okay, fair. His injury was a freak injury.

Neighbors was trying to jump off the turf and towards ACL. A little bit different. And so that's where I said it. I'll send you a picture of my toe if you guys want to see it, by the way. I'm all set. Thank you. You can send it right to hang. I look at a lot of ACL tears at MetLife over the years.

And obviously the Aaron Rogers, Achilles, two or maybe three years ago now. Okay, Monday night game, Chiefs at Jags. Chiefs, everyone thinks they're back. Three and a half point road favorites. We can't bet on Jacksonville, so this is just a pass.

Correct. Correct. You were correct. That is the right answer. That is a pass. The Chiefs look good. I don't know, Matt. They look like a team that was better on offense

because it's a very bad defense. That's the takeaway, right? Defense look good. Defense is good. Yeah. Yeah. They also have a ball. Okay.

Can we talk about one. Go ahead. Can we talk about one, one, one, one jaguar's thing that we were right about. It's Travis Hunter thing. Pick a freaking position. Pick a position. Offense or defense? You trade it up for this guy to do nothing, to be impactful on neither side of the ball.

Do something with him. It makes no sense. I don't understand. Like, I get it. You drafted him and you made this big stink about how he was going to be this. great two-way player. How about he's a great one-way player first, Matt? Find one-way position for him.

How about he's a competent one-way player? Let's not even get to great. Like, he's not having an impact as an offensive player or a defensive player. Not even like a marginal impact. He played 38 of 68 offensive steps and nine defensive steps. Now, he did have a nice catch, 28-year-catch. But, like, pick a side, man. And Liam Cohn, by the way, he's doing a good job.

Like Trevor Lawrence is playing a little bit better. The team obviously buys in. He told Robert Seller to go F himself, which is pretty funny. But like we were, I was right about Travis Hunter, dude. Like, guys are incredible talent. He can be a good corner and a good wide receiver. He can't be both. Choose a lane for him to be in.

Okay, Matt, we're going to college football here. Let's wrap up this. We'll take a break. We'll get to college football. So we have two yeses. We have three yeses, but we'll just go through them quickly. Yep. Carolina plus one and a half is a yes, correct?

Tampa plus three and a half is a yes. I think we both agreed. I think we both agreed Philly was a yes, right? Yep. Okay. We actually don't have a ton of them, by the way. Philly minus three and a half. Okay.

I've got Minnesota as a maybe. We have Minnesota, Vegas, Dallas, and Washington. Okay. Washington. I do like Vegas, though, plus seven. It's so gross. Yeah, let's put Vegas in there. and then Dallas

is laying two and a half and I don't hate the Minnesota bet I know that that's a terrible number but I just I feel like that one can get really out of hand Washington is Washington's not a bad I mean just getting three with Jaden's nice the Dallas one just feels a little bit fishy to me to be honest and a little square

I guess so what's the case Probably Minnesota is what if we have a Carson-O-Ns game. Against that Brown's defense. Yeah. We'll do commanders? Let's do it. I'll follow commanders plus three. Let's do it.

Okay. Washington plus three. Carolina, Tampa Bay. Philly, Vegas, Washington. We have four teams getting points. What's the worst that can happen, Matt? All right. We're going to take a quick break here for audio, video.

Stay where you are. And we'll come back to some college football. We'll do it next. All right, we're back. Sometimes, Matt, when I do the exit, like the outroes to breaks, I've done so much radio that I start to do a radio exit. And I realize, like, there's actually no radio exit to be done. Like, you don't say coming up next on the podcast.

It just goes to the next segment. So I always, I'm like, all right. And I just like stop talking. I realized I started the radio exit and we're not doing radio anymore. You're doing a tease. That's what they call it in the biz. Yeah, I know, but you don't really tease that. You do a little bit of podcast teasing, but like not a ton.

Like you're not, the teasing radio is to get people to stay for the three and a half minute break or the five minute break. The tease, we're just reading an ad or like something's happening for 30 seconds. People are pressing skip and going to what we're saying next. I mean, I think they should definitely listen to the ads. And 100%, you know, like support all of our. sponsors and also tell those sponsors like what a great show this is light rate like rate review subscribe like I you know I don't want to be a corporate chill here but like let's go let's let's let's get make the show take off we have not first of all two things we have not got enough reviews on

iTunes recently I keep looking we were stuck at like 187 so we need some reviews please secondly YouTube shorts are going well I don't know what that means Matt but I appreciate people listening and watching on YouTube. Yeah, they absolutely are. Thanks for everybody for watching. My kids watch YouTube shorts. I know that. I wonder if they are watching our clips on YouTube shorts.

Maybe they're the problem. We need to give them more brain rot Jeff Schwartz content to just make sure that they're locked in. My wife wants to sponsor, by the way, a little league team still for Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. She branching again last night because my kid was wearing his little league outfit and was sponsored by like a law firm or something. in town.

It would be incredible to have that logo like that. Let's do it. What's the cost? I think $1,000. I think it would have cost. Well, let's just parlay our picks and make it back. But my kids won't be in a team next year that has a sponsor, though, that we can pay for.

That's the thing. We have to sponsor a different team. It's not my kid's team. But, I mean, I don't, you care. It would be pretty funny, though. Yeah, I think we should, our kids should be in it or Gabe's kids. Maybe one day. Well, Gabe's kids would be, I think Gabe's kids would be more likely at the age they're in to make it happen.

But nonetheless, that's not important. What is important, Matt, is that we'll get to the bigger games of the week. I'm giving my picks first. Your Maryland Terrapins are 4-0. They're hosting Washington. Off a pie. They're hosting Washington this weekend. They're going to beat Washington this weekend in College Park.

Let's go. And so I have Maryland plus six and a half. A couple reasons why. So Maryland actually team, I never actually got to the window with this, but under four and a half wins is a play I was very much considering this year. And they were four and oh. So I'm glad I didn't make that bet. You know, last year, they were four and eight,

and Mike Loxley, the head coach there, immediate day this year said essentially, you know, to the point of like, I lost the locker room. That's what he said. He said basically that, you know, guys were, I was trying. trying to figure out how to pay guys the right amount. I was trying to figure out who deserves it, who doesn't deserve it, and we lost our way last year in the locker room.

And he even threatened to put his desk in the locker room this year to get the culture back to what he wanted. I love it. And when, when, when, when, uh, Tua's brother was there, they were really good for those couple years. They were not very good before that and not very good in the year after it. And so I thought it was a pattern of just like, when Tua's brother was there, Tully, right?

Is that the last name? first name I believe Talia, yeah Talia, Talia, Talia, yeah. And so I thought they would struggle this year. They have a true freshman quarterback this five-star kid Malik, Washington. Kind of didn't fit like the rest of the team

to be honest with you, right? Like they've recruited okay but you just think like that doesn't really match. Buddy, they're playing well. Especially offensively, look, their numbers aren't great for efficiency-wise. Defensively they're playing a really good job. Washington lost Ohio State.

Very emotional home game. They're hypoena. that game up. They weren't very close and they traveled across country. Last year they won zero road games. This year they played one road game at Washington State. It was 31, 24 in the third quarter. It was 3824. Washington was driving down to make that at

one score game through a pick six and fumbled the next drive. Matt, Washington's played four games this year. Colorado State, UC Davis, Washington, Ohio State. How many punts have they forced this year in four games, you think? Their defense. How many punts? Sorry, you're talking about Washington.

or you're talking about Maryland. Yeah. Washington punts forced by Washington's defense. In four games. I mean, it's got to be like, you'd guess probably like, I don't know,

15? 13. That's nothing. That's not. Oregon has a force like 33 punts this season so far on defense. I think Washington is sort of, they're fun at quarterback.

They got to go to running back, got to go to wide receiver. That's about it. I think Maryland beats them. I'll take the six and a half with Maryland. Love that. For,

for, for, for, for, Five and O Terrapins team. Let's go. It'd be a big win. I will say this about Maryland quickly.

They have two coordinators who are both coordinators at the NFL level. Like Pep Pep Hamilton is their offensive coordinator. Pep Hamilton, he was like Andrew Lux's offensive coordinator. Yeah, he's good. Good coordinator. Yeah, they've got a really nice coaching staff. So I don't think this is a total fluke. I definitely like the six and a half.

I just like, look, I appreciate, and I've actually done some radio with Loxley. He's a good dude. I appreciate coaching. that are able to adapt and evolve, Matt, right? And he's been coaching a long time to admit, like, I lost a locker room and I had to fix it. My coaches don't do that, right? My high school football coach, best advice ever got in my life, he said, don't lie to yourself. Don't lie to yourself.

Best advice, everyone asks me, like, that's what it is. You know, like, deep down in your heart and your head, like, whether or not you're lying yourself about something. And he just, he didn't lie to himself, right? He said, this is my evaluation of my team. I got to be better. If you get better locker room guys. He did it. Four and O, he did it.

With a true freshman quarterback who played well at Wisconsin on the road, which is really hard to do. So I like them. I like Purdue in the first half against Illinois. I don't know if they can withstand the entire game against the fighting a line eye. Purdue's off a buy. They're not terribly good this year.

They rebuild on a Barry Oden, but they're off a by. Illinois is off that huge emotional game against USC. And I think there's a great spot just to back Purdue in the first half. Full game. really worries me. And I think the first half right now,

this number is kind of jumping along with us. Was it like 10, went to 9.5? Right now in Draft Kings, the number is 5.5. I like Purdue plus 5 and a half in this spot. Penn State goes to UCLA this weekend. That game will have exactly 12,400 fans, and 12,038 of those will be Penn State fans.

But nonetheless, I like Penn State in this game, Matt. It's 24 and a half right now. Now, James Franklin, their head coach, can't win big games. What he does do is cover games between seven and 24 points. I know it's 24 and a half. He dominates in a spot. UCLA has played, I think, four, you had to buy four games now. Matt, they've led in zero, zero minutes of four games.

And that includes Northwestern, New Mexico. They're bad. They fired their head coach, their OC walked away this week. They fired their D.C. Lost Northwestern last. I think Penn State has a good bounceback spot as well. The last one, oh wait, this number is not. There's no way this number is what it has right now.

Tell me. Oh, oh, I'm a bet on this right now. I've been waiting all week for this to drop. Okay. TCU is favored by 13.5 over Colorado. It was 14.5. I hadn't wager on it yet. I was hoping it come in a little lower.

It has coming a little bit lower. I can get much lower than this. I don't care if it's 12 and a half or 13.5. 13.5 for TCU against Colorado. Colorado. Colorado is a fade on the road right now. They've covered their last two games. And after they scored early against B. Y, you got 14-0, kind of nothing.

TCU is off a three turnover loss to Arizona State. They're back at home. I don't want Colorado on the road. They're not terribly coached well. They have end-of-game management situations. I think TCU is able to do whatever they want to them. I'm waiting for this number to come down, Matt. I finally can't do it right now, draft kings.

Here we go. 13 and a half bingo it was 14 and a half like for the last you know 48 hours oh what what what what stroke of luck there Matt how about that love it to be on air for the move we love that um I uh it is it is in is in pocket now for this weekend how about that real quick the uh Clemson is going to unccc and this was supposed to be like a marquee game I know they booked ludicrous did you hear about this? No, Ludo? U.N.C. booked Ludacris for this, thinking it's probably like a night game,

maybe game day was there. Ludacris is performing before the game. He is performing at 10 a.m. on Saturday because this game went from a marquee game to, hey, why don't we start this one at noon? I found that to be a funny, funny story. Ludacris, like on the North Carolina

campus? I can get up there for a free concert. There you go. It's only a couple hours away, hour and a half away. Belichick getting 14 at home against Clemson. What if, World. Oh, God, this game is so bad. Luckily for me, I mean, my daughter's softball game, I don't have to watch any of it. Oh, God, just bad. I did nothing on that one. I do have a few others on some other big games

this week. Florida State plus four and a half at home against Miami. Buddy, this feels way too trappy. Like this, this number, I hate it so much. Florida State's off that loss of Virginia. Very tough spot on Friday night. Virginia can score a little bit. Miami's off a buy. Miami's looked incredible so far, right? They beat Notre Dame, they beat South Florida, kick the shout of South Florida. Four and a half feels so low.

Like, they're, this, this, man, I think Miami's the best team in the country. And I, this, it feels such like a trap thing, Florida State plus four and a half. I think everyone's taking a Florida State this weekend. I would actually lean the other way. I think a Florida State team total under,

something like that. This Miami defense is, is legit. And the team total, like I'll go under 24 and a half, I feel like, but this feels like such a giant red flag, giant trap, man. Total's 53 and a half.

You might, you want to play the under there? Miami might score, though. Like, they can, they're a team, two things. Miami's the team that will just grind you down

and then, and then, like, score late multiple, like Mario Cristobal, it's, this is a recruiting game for him, right?

It's in Miami. I mean, Florida State to say to Florida like they'll try to score that extra touchdown Matt in the end of the game that makes sense. Nice. So like that's yeah like so I think Miami is is the right side. So I but again it feels like a trick. The last one here, Texas is at Florida.

Florida's going to get six and a half. I think Texas might lose this game. Our producer should close his ears for this one. The only problem is is that how much does Florida give a shit about the rest of their season? Their defense is still playing their... Their defense is so good.

They're playing so hard. Their offense is terrible with Lagway. They can't score. 16 points against UCF, 10 against LSU, 10 against LSU, 7 against Miami. This game screams... The total is 41 and a half for a college football game.

I think the under is playable till 20 and a half. No one's going to score in this game. No one's going to score in this game. So look, if it's 41.5, you just take the under in Florida State, Florida, I should say. Never tease college games, so you wouldn't take Florida out to like 12.5 or nothing, or the total up to 47.5. But Texas offense, really concerning.

And they're off the buy, sure, I get it. But to me, this game is all about how much. Florida cares about their season right now. If they care, this will be a grind, grind fest for Texas to get any yards and any points. And the other caveat is that Texas could just decide to be getting an offense all of a sudden. It's possible to have the people to do it. At the swamp feels like a bad place for it to start going. And also, it's a lookhead spot.

They put Oklahoma next week, two weeks from now in Red River shootout. Still shootout here. Still shootout with Jeff Sports Tomorrow You podcast. And I would look at Florida in this game or the under. I don't have been playing it yet. I tell you,

I bet TCU. I have bet on the the tariffins plus six and a half. I have bet on the first half of Illinois Purdue. I'm waiting to see where Penn State UCLA nets out, honestly. Like I'm 24 and a half of 25 and a half Matt to me is not as important.

If I can get to 24, 23 and a half. So I'll wait that one out, essentially. But yeah, that's what I have in pocket so far. TCU, done with 13.5. Let's go. Let's go. Good timing.

Good timing. Love that. All right. I think we've, I think it's time. I think it's time for me to go look up, look up commander's tickets down in the road at SoFi here. You should do that. And yeah.

All right, everyone. Please, right, if you subscribe. We love draft kings. go check out everything they have to everything, man. As I told you, I got the teaser set up for Thursday night football. Rams in the under. Just got on TCU minus 13.5. Also, last one too. I'll take you know a college play.

I have Wisconsin under 13.5 points, by the way, or for the game in Michigan. There you go. All right, Matt. That's it. Talk to you guys on Monday. Take care, everybody.