Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Baker's Blunders, Chiefs Troubles & McCaffrey's MVP

Episode Date: October 8, 2019

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Today's episode of Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you is brought to you by game time. Okay, folks, time for a little pop quiz. Do you think NFL tickets are cheaper three weeks or three hours before the game? You can find the answer with game time. The ticket buying app that proves patience is more than just a virtue. You can save you some serious cash. Game time is the leader in last minute tickets. Pick your deal.

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And when you play a great team, you have to eliminate mistakes. You just have to. We know exactly what we need to do. We need to play well. From the Athletic, I'm Jeff Schwartz. Baker Mayfield played terribly against the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey is playing like an MVP. And the Chiefs might be in trouble. It's Monday, October 7th.

And this is Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. We're recording for the first time after Monday Night Football. We wanted to stay up and watch this game and analyze this game because I knew there would be hot takes on either side of this. Gabe Goodwin, producer extraordinaire, you are here to fire the takes at me. I know we're going to start with the Monday Night game, but we're going to have a lively discussion about my Kansas City Chiefs coming up soon. I cannot wait for that.

Oh, yeah. But fire away game. Well, these takes, I mean, are just out of the microwave. You know, the game just ended. I haven't even processed all of the takery. So I'm just going to start nice and easy. Listen, Jeff, normally on this show, after a Browns loss, I'd be teeing you up to blast into Baker and give us your greatest hits.

Right. But we're better than that. OK, so the right football take for now is that the 49ers are legit. No, you know what? Actually, screw that. Let's get into it. Nick Bosa canceled Baker with a sack and imaginary flag plant. He was all over Baker all night.

Jimmy G and the running backs took care of the rest. It's over. This was not a turning point. This was a tipping point. Browns, dead. Baker, canceled. Jeff, hit the take. Cancel it all, Gabe.

I'm all for it. Look, I picked the Browns to go 9-7 and make the playoffs. I think that's still possible. They could definitely win the division still. I don't think they're that far off. But I will say, I warned you guys this was exactly how the season could go. You have a coach in Freddy Kitchens that was hired because no one else would take the job. If they wanted Freddy Kitchens that badly, they would have hired him immediately after the season.

I said this all along. They wanted other coaches. They hired Freddy Kitchens. They set up for Freddy Kitchens. All this weight was put on his shoulders of winning in his first year as a head coach. Remember, he had never even been a coordinator for an entire season. He never had to get up in front of a team meeting or even in front of an offensive meeting for more than a year and talk to his players and guys.

Now you add in a cocky Baker Mayfield. You added Odell and Jarvis Landry and the expectations of success when you've never had it before and you have a complete dumpster fire of a team now. Look, they've had some ups and downs, obviously, right? They go to, you know, they go to Baltimore. They win again. Not only the Ravens are very good. I know the Ravens are three and two. I think it's a kind a fugazi 3-2. They've beaten some really bad teams.

They got lucky against the Steelers. They played really terribly against two good teams that they've played so far this season. But the Browns have been undisciplined, and Baker Mayfield has looked worse. That's 100% on the head coach for that. To Baker Mayfield's side, look, I told you guys this all offseason that Baker Mayfield's a supremely talented player but would not shut up. And it's true, right? He does not shut up.

And when you do that, you put an X on your back. And that's why Bosa sacked him today, hit him with the flag celebration, obviously mimicking what Baker Mayfield did when Bosa was at Ohio State after Oklahoma went into the shoe and won that game. But you have a quarterback who is regressing hard. And maybe he wasn't as good as people thought last year, which has kind of been my game, my thing all along. Look at the best teams he's played.

He has not played well at all. I guess the best teams he's played, except Baltimore, where he's thrown for 300 yards all three times. But you look at the Titans this year, when they had a really... Say what you want about the Titans offensively. Defensively, they're good. The Rams are good on defense. Didn't play very well. The Jets,

completed 54% of passes, one touchdown, one interception. Then tonight, he looked bad. Now, all the interceptions were not his fault. The offensive line, they did not address it all this offseason. They went with flashy players and Odell Beckham. Not the offensive line. Baker Mayfield's getting beat up.

He doesn't trust the pocket. The offense is a complete disaster. And I kind of told you this. I'm going to take a victory lap game because you know that I called this dysfunction from the beginning. You did, but you hedged and said that they maybe are a nine and seven playoff team and you don't hate them. And because I know I don't I don't hate anybody. I hate the Washington Huskies. OK, I don't hate.

I don't hate. Hate their football play. Hate their football. I think that they're talented enough to be nine and seven. And if you look at their schedule now, the next couple of weeks are brutal. The next three weeks after the second half is really easy. I did not think it'd be this bad. I think that's part of it.

I didn't think it'd be this bad to where you can't even run a functional offense. But after they played, I mean, look, they have the Niners, Seahawks, Biweek, Patriots. The Broncos, by the way, who are one of four, but they could easily be three and two at Denver. It's getting cold. Then the bills and then it's Steelers, Dolphins, Steelers, Bengals, Cardinals, Ravens. So they can actually win the last seven games in a row and get to that nine and seven mark. But I didn't think it'd be this bad game and they can flip the switch, I think, to being a better team, but they have to become more disciplined. The guys are having penalties, bad plays.

They've got to slow the offense down. They've got to get Baker easy. They've got to protect the passer. Defensively, they're playing okay. I know tonight wasn't the best. The Niners ran it down their throats. I get that. But it's worse than I thought it'd be, Gabe.

Much. And I've got to throw a few things at you here. So we thought that they figured it out. We spent time on this show saying, well, the Nick Chubb plan worked. Just keep doing that. Hand him the rock. He was fine. I mean, not going to have three touchdowns every night.

But then all of a sudden, we're not going with that game plan. Instead, we're going with OBJ trick plays on the first snap. Which is really funny. What are we doing? Because they could have run a bootleg on that. Got the same exact route concept. That's not the same exact way. I didn't seem very special.

Why? And then he's fielding punts at late in the fourth quarter. When you're down that big early in the game. And then here's why coaching matters. Okay. Because when you're down early in a game and they got down fairly early, it was 14-0. The Niners then ended up getting a fumble. Could have made it 21-0, 17-0.

Robbie Gold misses the first of his three field goals he missed. One was blocked, I should say. Is when you're a new coach, you panic in that situation. So you're down 14-0. You do not stick to your game plan. you panic in that situation. So you're down 14-0. You do not stick to your game plan.

You abandon the idea of running the football, of whatever sort of offense you came into the game doing. You immediately panic and think, I got to score points right away because we're not playing well on defense. And the best coaches understand that there's no need to panic. It's a long football game ahead. You have to trust your plan and have your players going to execute the plan and i think as a new coach i'm not saying freddie kitchens can't get to this point but that's part of being a new coach is understanding that we cannot freak out down

14 nothing after five minutes of football and just stick to our game plan well okay then whatever they did at halftime to try to figure out a new game plan didn't work one first down the second half chubb had 16 carries for and big man only had 22 attempts um big man was eight for 22 by the way yikes um i think we saw today a master against like an apprentice. We saw Kyle Shanahan call a fantastic game. He called a beautiful run game, and unfortunately the fullback I think got pretty hurt. I'm upset about that. But they were massive on the ground, right? They used a fullback.

George Kittle's a great blocking tight end. Also can catch the ball really well. They used play-action pass. They used a reverse that went for a long game they work great on offense and i believe i heard this properly they have now scored a touchdown on the opening drive of all four of their games that's correct in the second half which tells you that kyle shanahan makes great adjustments which means he is a fabulous coach and we saw one team make adjustments,

and the other team, the Browns, won't fly on their face. No first downs in the second half. And yeah, that stat was right. Four for four coming out in the second half. Okay, so let's talk about those Niners for a second, because I joked at the top that, you know, oh, they're legit, and then I blew it off so we could bang on the Browns. But they're pretty good.

They're 4-0. They have a big test with the Rams this coming weekend, so they'll be in L.A. for that game. They'll probably have more fans in L.A. than the Rams will. Sorry, Zuri, our producer. But, you know, then it's hit and miss the rest of the way from there. So can we talk about the Niners for a second? They're legit, right?

So it's fun. I grew up a Niners fan. I'm excited to see this kind of team get back to where, hopefully, they belong at the top of the NFC. Yeah, I think that tonight's game was a game really for both teams. I

want to see how they come out because I feel like if the Browns had won, we would have said, okay, the Browns are for real. The Niners win, which they did. The Niners are for real. And I think tonight is the Niners are for real. The Niners win, which they did. The Niners are for real. And I think tonight the Niners are for real. The Browns' defense is good. Say what you want about Freddie Kitchens and the offense and Baker Mayfield. The Browns' defense is legit. And the Niners ripped through the Browns' defense,

shredded the Browns' defense. And what's impressive to me is this offense is just continuing to build up. Remember, Jimmy G has only, what, played in like 11 games now? He hasn't played in a lot of games. They're going to keep evolving this offense and figuring out what they want it to be. Kyle Shanahan, remember this, is a fantastic play designer.

He was in Atlanta when Mike Ryan had his best season. Even last year with Jimmy G Hurt, with second and third string quarterbacks, Beathard and Mullins, they were able to move the ball in offense. Now he's got everyone back healthy. I know it's just the left tackle. Fabulous.

Now, look, the defense was the question. Can the defense come? And Nick Bosa has been a wonderful rookie. He was fabulous tonight. Dee Ford has been good. We know the inside guys, Buckner, Armstead. Excuse me. Yeah, both guys are there. And Solomon Thomas as well are able to really get after the rusher. And when you can only rush four guys, which they did a large part of tonight, you're

able to cover in the back end and make things really difficult for a quarterback like Baker Mayfield. Well, it showed. Lowest passing yards, 100 for him. Lowest completion percentage of his career, 36%. And no touchdown passes for the first time, and I think this would be the 18th he would have had it, so none. So really bad tipping point game for Baker.

Let's shift gears to another team close to your heart. Really bad tipping point game for Baker. Let's shift gears to another team close to your heart. I don't like saying this, Jeff, but the Chiefs are in big, big trouble. You can tweet your face off all night if you want to convince yourself they're not, but you're not going to convince me they lost 19-13 to the Colts Sunday night. Lowest point total of the Mahomes era. Colts ran all over them.

And, by the way, Mahomes had to limp off, re-injured that ankle. Watkins got hurt, lost an alignment, lost their best defensive lineman. They've got the Texans next week. This is bad. The Chiefs are in a bad place. All right, let's slow down. I know your buddy's with Conkoward, and what does he say? He's the voice of reason, right? Yeah.

I'm going to be the voice of reason on the Kansas Chiefs right now. First bad game this offense has played in 23 appearances with Pat Mahomes, even going back to the Denver game in 17, 24 appearances under Pat Mahomes. The worst game, one game in 24 appearances, they have played poorly. Okay? They're allowed to have one mulligan in 24 games. The game before was the mulligan. This was the ball in the woods.

The game before was three fumbles, and we still put up a bunch of yards and still overcame kind of a sloppy performance. But it wasn't like they were being stopped because of the defense. They kept fumbling. That's not like a thing where I think, okay, that's going to continue all season long, right? This game is an issue in itself, and I'll tell you why.

Again, I'm not overreacting to it. I'm not going to do it, but here's the reality of the game. The Chiefs were down. They're left tackle, left guard. They're two best wide receivers because Sammy Watkins barely played. I think two snaps. Tyreek Hill's out. Pat Mahomes re-injured his ankle,

so he was hobbling the second half of the game. Defensively, they're down. You mentioned Chris Jones, who didn't play most of the game. Frank Clark was injured for parts of the game. Their middle linebacker was out for almost the entire game. They have issues right now with injuries.

Now, that doesn't excuse the way they played on offense. The way they played on offense was not good. They didn't pass protect well. And when Pat Mahomes is hurt, he can't kind of scramble in the pocket and make some of these later in the down kind of these quote, quote, Aaron Rodgers type plays, right? Do we agree on that?

Like he can't do that when he is beat up. Yeah, I mean, he did it in the first half, but not in the second. Not in the second half. And with Palma Holmes specifically, I do think it's fair to point out that there has been some regression there. All right? I don't know if regression is the right word, but I'll tell you that he's missing more guys this year open, open players,

than he has missed at any point of his career. Like, there are guys wide open he's missing. Now, is that because, and not just last night, it happened all season long, is that because his footwork isn't good anymore? He's getting too cocky. He's injured. I think it's a combination. I don't think the cocky thing is the problem,

but I think his footwork has been not as good because he's able to make a lot of throws with poor footwork. And I think he cannot step into the ball, most importantly, I think, with his left ankle being beat up. So he's just a little bit off this year. And, Gabe, he's a little bit off and also on pace to smash the passing yard record. So imagine if he becomes kind of his quote-unquote old self again.

It's going to be awesome to see when he gets there. The defense. I'm going to talk about the defense real quick. So, Gabe, if I had told you that your favorite team, the New York Jets, had – well, they're your favorite team. You don't have to hide behind it. They're your favorite team. Okay.

Let's say I told you that the New York Jets, in a game, allowed 4.6 yards of play if you exclude the kneel downs and only allowed 19 points. What would you say about that? That we still lost by 16 points. Well, that's – But I get your point. I'm sorry.

I couldn't help it. Right. Okay. But I get your point. I'm sorry. I couldn't help it. Right. Okay.

So clearly I'm showing you that the Chiefs defense was not as bad as we think it was. The problem was is the Colts like rammed it down the throw-all game and the Chiefs they just continue to get beat down the field or get run through. Now, their holding problem on the secondary came back. For years, they held more than any other team with their secondary. That came back. That's a problem. But the defense was not as bad as people want to think it was. The problem was obviously with their offense.

And it's not a concern, everybody. Chiefs fans, take a deep breath. Don't be booing in the stands. Take a deep breath. Let's see how Mahomes' ankle is or foot is, whatever it is. Let's see when you get Eric Fisher back. This week against the Texans will tell us a lot. I might come on here next Tuesday and tell you guys that there's actual legit concern but right now they're still the second favorite team to win the nfs the afc nothing has changed they had a bad game first game in 24

appearances they had a bad game it's okay chiefs fans we're gonna get through this well you know that's nice that you're reassuring reassuring but, I mean, I only mentioned a few of the problems. Then you, like, doubled down. You told me Mahomes is sort of more injured than we think in regressing. You pointed out a whole bunch of secondary issues I didn't even mention. I mean, time of possession you alluded to, but Colts had 37 minutes and 15 seconds to 22.45. They basically had the defense on the field the whole time.

Injuries don't just magically go away. They got to get back out there next Sunday. Yeah, but when you lose a guy in the middle of a game, it's hard to just thrust a backup in there. I think that when they're able to you know game plan all week to have backups in it might help them a little bit okay well let me ask you this because i like to find the fiery takes out there i couldn't even find someone who thought this so i'm just going to throw it at you myself do you think there's any chance after that win that a well-coached

game with the defense playing well that the colts at 3-2, Andrew Luck was on a yacht somewhere off Monaco and was seeing that and going, you know what, I might take a few more weeks and come back around Week 10 and take this thing to the Super Bowl. Any chance? No. I think Jacoby Brissett's playing well. He played just okay.

He played okay. I think I had like 150 yards. Pat McAfee's just like going on, on TV, telling everyone the culture can make the Superbowl. There's, they're not culture. Sorry, everyone. Culture are not making the Superbowl. It's okay. They're a great story.

They won a big game. Not taking anyone, anything away from them, but they're not making the Superbowl this year. Um, even if luck comes back, I think the Patriots are making the Super Bowl. But I think luck is fine without football right now. I don't think that's an issue at all. All right. Like I said, not many people out there asking that question. I figured I'd try.

The Rams have lost two straight and seem further away from last year's Super Bowl run than ever before. If you follow the team, make sure to check out the 11 Personnel podcast on the Athletic Podcast Network. Vinny Bongsinori and Rich Hammond break down every game with in-depth weekly coverage of both the good and the bad of the Rams' 2019 season. You can subscribe to the 11 Personnel on theathletic.com slash 11 Personnel.

All right, guys, back to the show. Let's move it along. Christian McCaffrey, he is the MVP leader. I don't care if he's a running back. People will talk about Kyle Allen being unbeaten, replacing Cam Newton, but McCaffrey is that offense to anyone who watches, especially anyone who plays fantasy and watches. The last running back to win MVP was AP in 2012.

We know he ran for 2,000-plus yards that year. Our buddy, you mentioned him earlier, Colin Cowherd, says McCaffrey's the MVP. Our friend Mina Kimes tweeted, Analytics Twitter, don't read this tweet. Christian McCaffrey is running his way into MVP conversation. Jeff, we know it's a quarterback league. We know that award is usually for the QBs, but it should be McCaffrey's from what we've seen so far.

I would agree that he is close. I think Russell Wilson is the better player right now. Not where I thought you were going there. Where do you think I was going? Pat Mahomes? No, no, no, no. I thought you'd pull some other geeky thing out of your hat. I didn't know that you'd go right to Russell.

Oh, sorry. Sorry. The, the, like the highest graded player by PFF at the most important position. I thought that's what, like the one that you thought I'd go to. Um,

look, McCaffrey is doing an amazing job. Do you know, Gabe, that he has more combined yards than Todd Gurley and Zeke Elliott combined? I saw some, I think it was ESPN tweeted it. And I think Todd came over the top and,

uh, and made a joke out of it, so good on him. Oh, I didn't see that. Yeah, he saw the stat and said, you know, hats off to him, LOL. Like, don't drag me into it, something like that. Yeah, he's going to make a great job. And look, it's clear that people doubt him because of the stereotype of a white running back there's no doubt about it it's not um it's not nefarious why people thought that right just kind of the stereo the you know the the uh the stereotype i watched him play in college i thought

he'd be this good i don't realize he'd be this good but i thought he'd run between the tackles in the first year in the nfl the panthers didn't give him the ball between the tackles. Jonathan Stewart was more their guy. And they kind of allowed him to become that guy, and he is. Not surprising. I do think that people look at him a little differently now. He's definitely top three for MVP. I think he'd be maybe even two ahead of Mahomes. I don't know.

Maybe three right now. His defense is doing a great job in Carolina, but he's fun to watch, man. He is doing a marvelous job. He is their offense he if he were to get hurt the payments would not score points 46.8 of their total offense he accounts for not to mention all the craziness that he throws defenses off with people do not know what he's going to be doing he almost threw for a touchdown the other day like he can do anything um it's uh it's pretty it's pretty remarkable well he did throw touchdown last year um but uh it's um yeah it's he's he's doing a a great job all right i thought

i thought there was going to be some analytical take here that swatted away the theory well i know i mean i dude i i love running backs i I just understand that their maybe overall importance is not as – having one individual player like McCaffrey may be not as important as having – paying a quarterback or wide receiver. When your quarterback's making a rookie contract like Kyle Allen is, definitely makes sense to have McCaffrey still in his rookie deal. I get that.

He's done a fabulous job. He should be exactly where he is in the mvp talk i'm glad he is uh seems like a great guy as well um and i'm happy for him all right well let me throw this at you then because because the conventional wisdom is more or less what you're what you're telling me that it's still quarterback first it's nice to have a good running back running backs matter but sometimes get overstated so this came from rickosselin, who's a veteran guy tweeted. There were nine 300 yard passers in the NFL this week. Their teams went four and five. There were 800 yard rushers.

Their teams went seven and one. So do we need to start rethinking this whole QB led? This stat, look, I am, I can hear you rubbing your face right now. You're just, you are a face palm.

Look, this stat, like this is one of those things where it's like, it's not worth it. I can explain it, but look, typically if you're winning the game, you're going to run the football more. You're going to have more rushing yards. That's just typically the way it works. So that's why this stat is the way it is. In a general sense, everyone understands what the stat means,

but analytics people will rip you apart if you tweet this. We understand that if you typically rush the ball well, you're going to win the game, but a lot of people think that those rushing numbers get inflated in the fourth quarter as you're winning the football game, so therefore it's not as important to have a 100-yard rusher. It just makes your mind want to explode arguing this on social media. game so therefore it's not as important to have a hundred yard rusher it's just it's like it just makes your mind want to explode arguing this on social media um i don't think that's the most

valid stat is explaining why we should run the ball more but it helps the cause i guess okay this is like football's chicken or the egg we kind of don't know which comes first a good run game makes you a better team or a good team will end up with great running stats we don't really i think it just depends again before we get to our next topic oh i want to i want to interject here because we are we are taping this like we said after the monday football game yeah freddie kitchen said about odell catching that punt into the game the one he fumbled are you reading tweets while i'm giving my takes? Odell catches punts every day. Just give him a whirl at it and see.

A National Football League coach made a personnel decision based off of, just give him a whirl at it and see. I feel like that right there should just be my entire take on Freddie Kitchens. A head football coach at National Football League said, just give him a whirl at it and see. I thought you were done dumping on him in the Browns, but I'm glad you brought that up again because my theory has been that they're terrified of Odell, and they do let him.

I've watched it when I was in New York. They let him field punts pregame just because it keeps him occupied. What are they fearing of him? They're afraid that if they don't involve him in these ridiculous ways that he's going to start, you know, making out with a kicking net again or God knows what else he might do. They're worried that he's going to lose his attention. And obviously, Baker's not getting him the ball. So they're running trick plays and asking him to feel. I mean, can you imagine if he got his leg snapped in half

on a pointless attempt at a punt return in the fourth quarter? That'd be a whole different story. It's insane. It'd be very bad, yeah. And, of course, in that play, too, he just looked terrible because he was fumbling the ball everywhere, right? Yes. He got bailed out.

He coughed the ball up. Wasn't even a great play by him. I want to bring that up because that just kind of sums up my point about the the brown so i know we have one more major topic to hit yes and let's make it happen so dac should have taken the money when he started three and oh and look like the mvp that's just a fact the packers proved what the saints hinted at a real d can stop this dude he threw three picks in the loss of the Packers. He also threw for 463 yards, but zero yards, zero on third down. The whole game, no third down passing yards from a guy who threw for 463 yards. The Cowboys were frauds with that 3-0 start.

They beat up three of the worst teams in the league. Their line is hurt, which means Dak is exposed. So, oh man, I kind of have to eat some crow on this. I really like the Cowboys the first couple weeks of the year. I don't know how you can defend what we've seen the last two weeks. I think the best way to defend this is by saying the Cowboys would have paid Dak Prescott

already if they thought he was the guy. And the last two weeks have shown that Dak Prescott is most likely not the guy. And that's why we haven't seen the Cowboys pay him. You mentioned the Dak versus winning teams, 5-9 since 2017, right? The 23 touchdowns, 18 turnovers. That, to me, is showing that against the better competition he's not rising up and making his team better and i when i want to see a franchise quarterback i want to see a quarterback that makes his team better against the better teams right a guy that can lead those teams to victory um And it feels like Dak is not that guy at the moment.

It's probably why the Cowboys have not signed him. Now, he's got plenty of time this year to figure it out, but the problem is, Gabe, the Cowboys are kind of stuck. What do you do with Dak Prescott? Do you franchise him and pay him $30 million for one year? Do you offer him a $30 million contract and say, hey, this is our best offer, take it or leave it? Do you let him walk and go and trade up and draft?

One of the four or five quarterbacks next year, they'll go in the top 10. There's probably four to five of those guys, whether it's Tua, Tango Valoa, or Justin Herbert, Jake Fromm, Jacob Eason from Washington. I think Joe Burrow from LSU is talking his way into it. Jordan Love, I believe his name is, from Utah State. He's going to be talked about as a first-round draft pick as well.

So does Dallas go that route? Dallas is kind of stuck right now. I don't know what they do with Dak. I will say one thing that will help is having Tyron Smith back to left tackle. When Tyron Smith is playing since 2016, Dak has only been pressured at 26% of his dropbacks. When he's out, it's almost 36%. So that's a big jump when you are now getting pressured on one of every three snaps you take on a pass protection. Well, you just rattled

off i mean you might have made up half those names but you just rattled off a bunch of pretty good sounding college football quarterbacks any of whom could be a fourth round pick and become him i mean i i think dax a nice player he deserves a spot here's the the thing about the whole thing with the fourth-round draft pick. So we've seen that – look at the current landscape of the NFL right now. Let's look at franchise quarterbacks. Outside of Tom Brady and Russell Wilson, the franchise quarterbacks for the Seahawks and the Patriots, everyone else is a first- or second-round draft pick.

I mean, you can argue that Nick Foles is a franchise quarterback in Jacksonville. I'd argue probably not. Nope. Third-round draft pick. He's not even playing right now. Gardner Minshew's argue that Nick Foles is a franchise quarterback in Jacksonville. I'd argue probably not. Nope. Third round draft pick. He's not even playing right now. Gardner Minch is playing because Nick Foles is hurt. So you have to typically be drafted in the first or second round to be a franchise guy. So Dak being in the category of Wilson and Brady, who

are two Hall of Famers, he's obviously not even close to being that. But if he was even close, that's an outlier. So to say the Cowboys can get someone in the fourth round, no, they have to go get someone in the first round. I even contend this, Gabe. Tony Romo would be better than Dak Prescott.

I even said in 2016 when Dak took Team 13-3, Romo would do the exact same thing except won a playoff game. Like, Romo's a really good quarterback and he's better than Dak. And I think we're seeing Dak's not rising up. I got to take care of this.

I thought the Cowboys were going to play well the last couple of weeks. They clearly haven't. And the Packers, the Saints look far superior than the Cowboys do. Yeah, and for everyone out there, and I know there will be some Cowboys fans jumping in your timeline, your mentions, they're still 3-2. You know, they're just fine. They're top of the division with the Eagles.

Here's the thing. They beat the Giants, the Redskins, and the Dolphins. Combined record of 2-12. Those two wins are both the Giants. Teams they've lost to, Saints and Packers, 8-2. So against two of the teams they're likely to play in the postseason, should they even get there, they look terrible. So, I mean, it's more than just Dak.

They couldn't stop the run. There's a lot of problems in Dallas. Let's be honest. There are a lot of problems in Dallas, and they obviously have a couple days to figure this out because they play again obviously next weekend. And they get – oh, are they – they're either off this week, but they play the Jets, I think, don't they?

That counts as being off. Yeah, it counts as being off. So they're not – they might have a little opportunity to kind of get right, but to your point, still the Eagles twice, still a bunch of other teams that got to play that have winning records. The Giants now are no pushover in the division, I think. And so there's a lot for them to have to fix. And it starts with Dak Prescott.

Where is that aggressive offense at? Where is that impressive array of confidence, of being able to make plays with your legs, the RPO stuff, where is all that at right now? I don't think we have that at the moment. No, I guess I would just settle for a completion for plus yardage on third down at any point in the whole game.

That might be nice. I love that you ragged on them now that you have to watch them demolish your jets coming up pretty soon. Guess what, man? I'm going to be at the beach. I'm not watching that. With or without Sam Darnold and that giant spleen of his.

It doesn't matter. It'll affect a few points to the people in Vegas who care, which will be a nice segue. I think it's time we play Move the Line, our little over-under betting game that we like to play each week. Some of these are real. Some, eh, I probably made them up. First one, though, this is real.

As of recording, the Chiefs-ans over under for next weekend is 55 and a half. That's where I've seen it. I'm curious which side of that you're on. 55 and a half over under. That feels very high. High? Yeah. Because the Chiefs are in trouble and aren't going to be able to score points?

We don't know what Pat's ankle is right now. Okay. But don't worry. Don't panic, Chiefs fans. Why would you panic yet? I'm just saying. Keep in track of your take. My job is to be rational.

It's not to overreact. Okay. And I am not going to overreact in this instance. Okay. There's no reason to do that. So that's why you come here. You come here to get rational talk. And I'm going to be the rational guy for you guys. Don't overre to do that. So that's why you come here. You come here to get rational talk,

and I'm going to be the rational guy for you guys. Don't overreact to that. 55, I haven't looked at this game yet. 55 and a half. Like we're just getting done with the Monday night game. That number, I mean, if you look at the rest of the league, dude, that number is supremely high. It's very high.

So you know me, man. I'm going to tell you to bet unders. I'll tell you right now, everybody. Take the New York Giants under 13 points against the Patriots on Thursday night. Lock it in. Get it done. Make sure you get it before it goes down. That is happening. I take the under, man.

This is too high. Okay. And so, just as a bonus here. Chiefs currently, I see, as an eight-point favorite man. It's too high. Okay. And so just as a bonus here, Chiefs currently I see as an eight-point favorite still. It's five. It's now to five. Okay. So everyone bet the crap out of that today.

So which side are you on? Texans cover five? Dude, you're asking me this on Monday. This is that podcast we did last year. Pinning you down, brother. Pinning you down. Can't give you great answers. I mean, I lean the points here with the Texans,

but this is not an official Jeff Schwartz smarter than you bet. I would lean the Texans here plus the points, but I don't have a take on Monday night. All right. I tell you what. Later in the week, you share the podcast with an updated pick, whether you like the Texans or not. That number we'll move to.

Let's move to the next one. Don't want to overlook a nice story from this week. The Raiders won. They're 3-2. So I'll ask, over-under, 8.5 wins for the Raiders this season. Which side are you on? Let's look at their schedule really quick. So they have a bye week.

Then they have two tough games, Packers, Texans, and three home games. He's actually at home. Lions, Chargers, Bengals. I'm going to go under still. Yeah. I'm not surprised their offense is playing well. That really has not surprised me. Now, their offense played – they played well in the first half yesterday. They only had 24 points. I don't think it's a Bears defense. That really has not surprised me. Now, their offense played, you know, they played well in the first half yesterday.

Only 24 points. I don't think it's a Bears defense. That's pretty impressive. But they scored 24-10, 14-31, and then 24, right? So they'd be kind of all over the place with their scoring output. But no surprise. They played better down the stretch on offense last year. What's surprising to me is their defense.

Their defense has, especially with Burfordford right now, they have no one. They have no stars. Like Cleen Farrell, the rookie they drafted, has not played well. Can you name another person, Gabe, on their defense? No. Right. Of course not. I mean, the guy who ran his mouth on hard knocks is injured,

so I got nothing left. That is why I'm impressed by the raiders their defense over everything else so um i think to me uh they uh i'll go under eight and a half but they can convince me um pretty quickly if they win in green bay that they're gonna be over that number okay well i don't think they will but so they'll head off to las vegas as like an eight and eight type team and there'll be some hope all right let's uh let's move to the next question another nice story that we haven't touched on yet uh teddy bridgewater won again saints are looking good um i will ask this bridgewater wins as the starting quarterback of the saints this regular season, 6.5.

He's got three of those currently. I would say that I think they lose this weekend on Jacksonville. Whoa. This line is kind of wonky, though. The Jacks are favored by a point and a half. So you're telling me that neutral field, the Saints are better right now? Yeah. No Jalen Ramsey likely i mean it

doesn't look like that's getting resolved him and the sean watson just hanging out well i thought i thought that was kind of weird like i'm not i don't really get up in arms about that but people were like that's totally normal i mean they aren't technically rivals since the middle of the season i think i think they're repped by the same guy and uh he was sent there as as i understand i know that i'm not supposed to get it back you're supposed to be sent there as as i understand i know that he was supposed to get it back he's supposed to be there but i just i don't know i think it's i'm a little more on the old school side about like that type of stuff i saw odell tonight like exchanging jerseys after getting taken a picture like bro like can you just do that like under the tunnel for today like just

get your ass kicked um i like this old school part of you i just like it just it's alignment in me, man. Dude, you just got your ass. Just exchange jerseys under the tunnel like normal people do. Also, this is the National Football League. We're in America. We don't swap jerseys like it's the Premier League, but that's another point. Oh, no, no, no. I'm not.

Hey, this show's not about my takes. No, no, no. I might have family in England listening to this. I can't go any further with that. I know we have people, by the way, in Australia, Chiefs fans listening to us. Shout out to Chiefs fans in Australia. No, no, no.

I need to hear this take. That's all there is to it. I mean, that's a soccer tradition. We play football with our hands here. I think we should do it our own way. We don't need to start taking that from them. Are we going to start wearing scarves to games now? I mean, are we going to sing funny songs?

Like, come on. This is not what we do. We do the wave in America. Woo. I mean, a lot of their traditions are more fun, let's be honest. But we have ours. They have theirs. Let's leave it to them.

Yeah. They gamble in their stadiums. They're as much fun as we should. Everywhere. You can gamble at, like, a 7-Eleven in the UK. I love it. All right. So what was the answer?

Six and a half to wins for... Under. Going under. Okay. So at Jags, at Bears. I think Drew Brees comes back after the bye to face the Lions. You've got three games left. Yep.

At Jacksonville, at Chicago versus the Cardinals. I think they lose one of those games. We saw Brees post a video of himself throwing the ball. I think it was a softball. Nonetheless, I think he's back. Yeah. was the video of himself throwing the ball i think it was a softball nonetheless i think he's back yeah he's he's been doing all kinds of normal regular dad things um proving that he has some mobility in that hand but yeah so you're saying after the buy then he gets atlanta the bucks caroline doesn't look so easy anymore but a nice landing pad for drew breeze got it all right um this one's sort of ridiculous and it doesn't work as well without video,

but I'm going to ask anyway. Sideline people trucked by Lamar Jackson only to be helped to their feet by Lamar Jackson as he campaigns his way to the MVP award. Over under 10.5 more of these this season. He's doing it once a week. When you sent me this video, I had seen it already i thought to myself why is gabe doing this to me why he's trying to send me a video that means absolutely nothing to anything we know we know that lamar jackson is a good person like there's not there's no denying that i might think that he is an average quarterback at the best but he's a nice person

he's going to try to help up anyone that he runs over. I'd rather him just be better at his job and less worried about how great he is at picking up people that he knocks over. So you'd rather Lamar Jackson run a better wishbone offense and just smash people all over the sidelines and never even look at them after they've landed on the ground. Yes.

Bad human, good quarterback. that's what you want i'm worried about what you do between the white lines and i would rather him not play terribly against the third string stealers quarterback um then whatever he did picking that dude i'm like look he's a good nice guy like i no one denying he's a nice human but but it's just, I'm kind of over this, like, I think what's funny is the first two weeks of the year, he played really well, and I fought the fight, right? I told you guys, look, it's a little fake. Played terrible teams. I don't buy this offense.

And it's funny when no one comes back to me when I'm right and says, you know what, Jeff? You were right, buddy. You know, you told me that I shouldn't and says, you know what, Jeff? You were right, buddy. You told me that I shouldn't get too high on the Ravens' offense. You were right. You were right that the Browns were going to be dysfunctional. Thank you for

telling me before the season what was going to happen. No one comes back and tells me that on Twitter. I'm very disappointed. Jeff, you know what we named this show? Well, I know I'm smarter than everybody. Isn't it kind of implied that you're right a lot yeah but i but i but every but like my hottest takes they're not even hot because they're right but nice you know ravens fans and browns has argued with me all offseason

they told me i was stupid i know what i'm talking about even not even non-ravens fans you know people this offense is going to work in the nfl All right. You won a game where a quarterback threw 161 yards. They had three interceptions. I think it was the lowest rated game of his career. Congratulations. Offense is nothing for me. Okay, so I'm going to mark you down as under 10.5. Sideline guys getting trucked by Lamar only to be picked up by Lamar.

Yes. We'll make that official. All right, last one and we'll get to social. So jets, dolphins, skins, and bangles wins against anyone, but each other all the rest of the season.

Point five over under. So for those who don't keep in score, it's Redskins at dolphins. And then it's jets at Redskins. They play each other. Yeah. Jets at dolphins, jets at bangles, dolphinsphins, and then it's Jets at Redskins. They play each other. Jets at Dolphins, Jets at Bengals. Dolphins, Jets, and Bengals Dolphins.

I'm not sure there's a winner in all of those games. Those could be some 3-3 ties. But obviously somebody's going to win a few of those games. So you can't be totally homeless. Your Jets have four of them. Yeah, well. How many wins against anyone other than each other? I would say over because the Jets might get Darnold back and sneak in a win against the Bills or something,

just some fluky game. I would get over on this. I'm not quite sure the Bengals and then the Redskins and Dolphins win any games, but the Jets might sneak in a win. I'm going to go with your New York football Jets. So you're going to say the Dolphins chip in no wins, right? We can lock that in. Yeah.

The Redskins, who fired their coach, you'll get into that, I'm sure, more on Thursday. We're going to say no win contributions from them. We could have two. Well, I guess no other than. We're going straight hot takey here. I'm just laying it on you guys. No wins for anybody. We have multiple 0-16 teams this year.

That would be amazing amazing by the way i think i now i don't want to waste everyone's time who's listening and just trying to have a jog on a treadmill while we do math but i don't think there's a way for there to be no i guess the bangles could lose to the jets and go and dolphins and the now there's i don't think there's a way that we could get more than one win list. They just all overlap. Somebody who's listening. I don't think anyone gave us that meme I was looking for last week. So anyone who's listening can figure out the time on this math.

Hit us back with it. Tell us if there's a way for two of them to go win list. Let's get to social. I have a feeling I mentioned the Redskins a lot here. I have a feeling this was a joke from our buddy Ryan Rosillo. But he says, if you're a Rams fan, you have to be worried that McVay might want to go home to D.C. This came just after the news that they fired Jay Gruden. You replied and got into it a little bit with him.

But I think you probably both see the humor in this. Anything more to add on the whole Jay Gruden situation or Ryan's joke? We're saving a lot of this for Matt Ford on Thursday. The subscriber show. The subscriber show. He's's a redskins i'll just say this um they're not getting lincoln riley you're not getting really anybody no one's coming to washington this function there is so bad um when we often see a lot of teams that have a disconnect between the front office and the coaching staff, right? Those teams often never win. And you would think to yourself, hey, let's have a connection, right? Let's get players that fit what our coaches want. And coaches, maybe your scheme can work around

players that we like. And they work together. In Washington, there's none of that, right? Dwayne Haskins clearly was drafted by anyone besides Jay Gruden. He didn't want him. He didn't play him. Dwayne Haskins might turn out to be great. I think he's got a lot of ability. But the new coach has to come in, and they're playing Dwayne Haskins.

That's happening. So you have to be on board with that. They're a complete disaster. I'll leave most of this to our Thursday subscriber show with Matt Ford. with Matt Ford. So our buddy, Dave Damoshek, who also does a show here at the athletic, uh, people can check it out. Football fact check. He has, uh, coined the phrase. I think it came from Dave, um, stinking for Lincoln, uh, that, you know, you shouldn't be, what is it? Tanking for Tua? No tanking for Tua starts stinking for Lincoln. So you're saying that Redskins can't even pull that off.

I don't think so. Okay. Jeff, I'm glad we stayed up late. I almost got in a car accident racing over here. I was too busy trying to peek at some takes on my phone. Shouldn't do it. Don't do it, everyone. But I made it okay, and now I'm going to go relax on my

way home. I might even get a McFlurry. Oh, Oreo. Oreo and M&M. Yeah. What the hell else was I going to get? I was in Barcelona. I had a McFlurry. It was delicious. You know, I lived in Spain for a long time. I ate McDonald's almost

every day I was there. My wife had a McDonald's's and in spain too and said it was better than america it is i don't know what it is that's probably why the whole world loves it so much we're all over it but i think it's better there's something about the coke and the ketchup are really great overseas japanese mcdonald's have you ever had that i've not not been to Japan, no. Oh, dude, you've got to get to Japan just for the McDonald's. Forget all the other stuff they've got. Hit a McDonald's in Japan. Wow, you learn something new every day on this show. Well, we appreciate

you, as usual, joining us for this show. Unusual recording money. I kind of like this. I know it's a little late at night, but this might be a thing we do sometimes every now and then. Please rate, review, subscribe. If you're listening to this, you know how to get to it. Apple iTunes

and Google Podcasts, and obviously on the Athletic and the Athletic Pod Network. Again, please leave me a comment. You'll find me at Twitter at Jeff Schwartz as well. Until Thursday, have a great couple of days, and we'll talk to you guys then