Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Divisional Weekend, Plus Playoff Matt Libs!

Episode Date: January 20, 2022

Geoff and Matt are to give you their picks on the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. They break down the best plays for all four playoff games, including how much faith to put in Derrick Henry in his return to the Gridiron, plus whether or not Josh Allen can stay hot enough to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Also, Geoff fills out some Matt Libs! Make sure to rate, comment, and follow the podcast if you enjoyed the episode.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday january 20th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this is jeff schwartz this morning you're powered by the varsity podcast network it is divisional round football we have four games this weekend to talk about two in the nfc two in the nfc we'll have some fun at the end with some matt libs we'll do a little bit of of nfl news and notes in a fun and informative style matt i think for think for the most part, we did well. I know you did well personally last weekend, but our favorite plays were Tampa Bay and Kansas City. Put those in a teaser that easily hit.

I like the Raiders. That did not work out, but I felt pretty good about where I was at after wildcard weekend. Yeah, Jeff, I had my best weekend since last year's Super Bowl, which you might remember, listeners of the show might remember.

That was my Super Bowl, last year's Super Bowl. But this weekend was pretty close. I went 5-6. The Patriots won. At least with that one, we knew early. I will say I did try to chase that down, and I took the Patriots plus 23 and a half live and they didn't cover it. I also took them at like plus 19 live

in like the second quarter. It was just, I was like, come on, they're not gonna get embarrassed, but they got embarrassed. I took the Cowboys money line like plus 230 at some point, which I thought was a pretty good wager and then just kept going backwards. And then obviously their inability

to just do common sense football really cost me personally at the end of that it was a crazy weekend i mean the games were all kind of lopsided with the exception of the upset the favorites won five of six which is a little concerning considering i think that we both like some favorites this week um but i don't know i mean any any takeaways from the games that we haven't gotten to i know you already talked with game a few times yeah the better coach and quarterback typically win these games what a surprise right and experiencing these moments really matter we're talking a lot about that when it comes to i think a couple of these games this weekend and the first game though is a team with no experience in the situation facing team that has some

experience and they're off a buy they put the one seed in the early Saturday slot I'm pretty surprised about it yeah I mean more fuel for their fire potentially my Cincinnati Bengals that I've I feel like I've been screaming about for the last few weeks on this show are going to Tennessee as everyone knows the line we're getting right now is three and a half I I will say, Jeff, I took this at two and a half the second it dropped for Tennessee, which I felt great about. Also took Kansas City at two, parlayed them. But now I got this three and a half and I don't really know what to do. I got Tennessee, I think at three minus 103 was the number I got when this first came out as well. Because look, guys, there is a value to,

if you love wagering like we do, you have to hit opening lines. Like, first of all, you have to follow it enough to kind of know where numbers are going, right? Like that's an important part. You don't want to come out with a better early number and then have it slide into one direction. Now, of course, you can buy out of those numbers

in different ways, right? But I think we both agreed. We texted each other Sunday night. We're like, look, if this Tennessee line, you thought it'd be higher. I thought it would be about right here. I told you about three, right? And it came out two and a half. We were like, oh my God, let's bet on this because here's why.

And look, at three and a half, we've told you guys all year, we're not betting hooks anymore. So I'm not betting times at minus three and a half. I would almost feel better if it was at four, Matt. I know it's weird to say, but that hook just feels like it gets me every time. But let's talk about this game. And we've talked a lot about,

we use DVO, Football Outsiders, a great analytic to measure, metric they have to measure efficiency, right? We talk about this all year long. Tennessee is one of the worst teams in NFL history to be the one seed, according to DVOA's metric. They're 20th overall in the NFL, 20th in offense, and they're 12th on defense,

20th on special teams. Now, what this doesn't take into account, Matt, is injuries, right? We know Tennessee Titans have had a ton of injuries this season. And they played through them, and Derrick Henry's back. Now, they've been basically the same team on offense with or without Derrick Henry. The rushing numbers are nearly identical. There's a little bit worse, but not really that much. But Ryan Tannehill hasn't been as good.

And with Derrick Henry back, I expect Ryan Tannehill to be better. But how about this, Matt? The important part about the bye is you get one less game, of course, but you get guys healthy and ready to go. A.J. Brown. Titans are 11-2 in the 13 games A.J. Brown has played. And on throws of 10-plus air yards, Ryan Tannehill completes 56% of those passes when he's in the lineup versus 30% when he's not. He's that much of a deal for this offense. And they are a run-heavy play-action

offense. The Bengals defense, guys, not the best. They're down one of their starting D tackles, and their best pass rusher, Hendrickson, is on the concussion list. I would imagine he'd play on Saturday, but we don't know that quite yet. On the flip side, Joe Burrow keeps playing well. Now, the offense last week had 305 yards. They didn't have a lot of yards. They didn't convert much in the red zone. Tennessee can rush the passer.

Their pass defense is not great. It's okay. First time Bengals have had a road game in like six weeks because the Browns game week 17 doesn't count. To me, I got a rested team. Mike Vrabel with eight plus days of rest is eight and 0 in his career. Yeah, only two of those games though

were against Jacksonville. So it can't just be, you know, those Thursday night games where he gets 10 days off, right? In between. So I really lean heavily Tennessee here, but I will say at three and a half, I don't. I mean, this is very much, in my opinion,

a teaser opportunity or money line, put Tennessee in the middle. I mean, I'd probably feel fine if you put Cincinnati into a plus nine and a half teaser. I don't think this game is that big of a blowout, but I think the Bengals do win. Excuse me, Titans do win this game. I agree. I would have loved it. I did love it at blowout, but I think the Bengals do win. Excuse me, Titans do win this game. I agree. I would have loved it.

I did love it at two and a half. Would have loved it at three. I'm still in at three and a half. A couple of things. You mentioned A.J. Brown and some great stats. Julio Jones should be back for this. And we haven't actually seen Julio, Derek Henry, and A.J. Brown together. They have the bye to prepare.

You mentioned Cincinnati's defense. They have some, some problems up front coming into this week off of some injuries last week. The main thing, the main reason I like Tennessee here is we forget how good they were. Honestly, like there was a stretch in the middle of the season where we were all

looking at each other. Like, how is this team this good without Derek Henry in one four game stretch? They beat Buffalo, Kansas city, Indianapolis and the Rams in four straight weeks. And in the middle of that, Derrick Henry went down.

The problem with the Titans is here's a good way to explain their season. They were favored by more than three, six times. They covered four of those games. The other two that they lost were the Jets and Texans. It's like, how do you figure that out? You know what I mean?

The Titans, they lost in week one to Arizona, which week one, I think some teams you throw that out. They lost that weird game to the Jets. But then their other three losses were all after Derrick Henry was hurt. I know that, Jeff, you don't particularly love to give the running backs a ton of credit, but this team with Derrick Henry, it belongs as a one seed they honestly they honestly do and i think cincinnati who i've loved i picked them i think the last

three weeks correctly they're they're a very good team they deserve a lot of credit for being here yeah but they've peaked they got over that hurdle no matter what this season's already a win uh for winning a playoff game they're going to bars they're celebrating you usually want to take the team that everyone's forgotten about who's the better team to begin with that's on the other side of a team that's uh been celebrating a playoff win fable's a better coach you know tannahill's no joe burrow but with the addition of brown and henry i just think it's a safe play to take the titans I think you're right here. Again, three and a half. I don't love it. You like it more than I do.

I think obviously a teaser opportunity here. Look, I know it's Wednesday. It's hard to come find props, but I think Derrick Henry will rush for a lot of yards. I think it's, I don't know what his number is going to be at, obviously returning from injury, but I think he does break 100 yards. I think they just feed him the entire game.

Look, this Tennessee offense is not built for, Ryan Tannehill will comes from behind very often. They want the lead. They want to run the football. And they want to keep moving down the field. Yeah, man, they've won a lot this year. Personally, as a Chiefs fan, I'm rooting for the Bengals to win because I would rather play the Bengals arrowhead

than the Chiefs go to Tennessee. So I'm rooting for the Bengals to win. But their issues on offensive line, man. Burrow throws the ball so quickly he has to because their offensive line gives a pressure so so fast yeah they do the bangles team is very imperfect and they i think they played a really weak team last week that was beat up that was on short rest that had to go outside it was a very good matchup and by the way, you took the Raiders and the whole game, it felt like Cincinnati had it in hand. And at the end of the game, it's like, geez, could Cincinnati actually blow this thing? And they almost did.

So Cincinnati kind of squeaked by. This is a different level of competition and a seasoned playoff team. So I think it's pretty safe to lay it with Tennessee. The other thing that's kind of interesting about this is if you follow the line, this at two and a half which we've talked about now 10 times but it's clear that vegas thought that everyone was gonna the public was really gonna hammer the bangles right everyone loves the bangles everyone's out on tennessee and then all of a sudden this this all of the money came in on tennessee and now it's just kind of holding because i think that people are just gonna say wait a minute joe burrow plus three and now it's just kind of holding because I think that people are just going to say, wait a minute, Joe Burrow, plus three and a half, let's go.

I just don't think that – I don't know. I think the books are really trying to get people to bet on the Bengals here, but their faith in the Titans seems pretty clear. Yeah, and we thought that too, right? Like we thought this would be a heavily bet game for the Bengals because of how people talked about Burrow. And you're right, they kind of snuck by the Raiders. The Raiders are not a good football team right now.

There were plenty of opportunities, obviously, for the Raiders to win that game. And they didn't do it. They had a lot of mistakes and a lot of errors. All right, let's get to the Saturday night game, the big game. I believe this is going to be a Fox game. This is awesome.

49ers-Packers. It feels like they play in the playoffs all the time. The line we are getting is six for Green Bay. I had the hardest time with this one. All right. So this line would indicate the rumors about Jimmy Garoppolo not playing are sort of true, right? Maybe, right? Because open at four and a half.

Now it's six. There's rumors Jimmy Garoppolo is not going to play. Now, again, he finished the game last weekend. So I don't know how injured he is. The Niners are probably going to play this close to the vest. Not going to say anything about it. But let's talk about the Niners, guys. They're the team that, as someone said,

the team that we want the Colts to be, right? Where they run the football really well. They rush the passer really well. They're tough, physical, well-coached. The problem is we can't trust their quarterback, Matt. That's the problem, right? And you're going on the road to play a Packers team. The Packers get three All-Pros back this weekend.

Well, David Bocchiari left tackle, came back last weekend against the Lions. Two weekends ago, first time he played all year. Jair Alexander, second-team All-Pro corner, corner played the first four games has been out ever since then he should be back the past remember all the way back now the Packers past defense was so much better the first month of the year with him in the lineup and they get potentially as we record this now he's in line to play it's a D Darius Smith, all-pro defensive end. So you get a better quarterback, and you add into the mix three all-pros at three impactful positions. Eileen Packers minus six. I love the Packers on a teaser, though, Matt.

Love them on a teaser. The problem is finding that other teaser leg kind of hard, I think, in this week. Like an ideal teaser leg is a little bit difficult this week in the sense that we try to bring numbers, obviously, kind of through the three and seven, which is why the Bengals might be the best option, plus nine and a half to roll with a Packers kind of a money line, you know, a point, half a point, zero here for the Packers on a teaser. But I feel very strongly the Niners are not going to win this game.

I just, Jimmy Garoppolo, everything has to go well for them, right, Matt? Everything has to go according to script. And even then, he might throw a bad interception. He might miss Brendan Ayuk. He might call a fourth and one play. Not call, but snap the ball too early. What Trent Williams has not set. Brings back fourth and one conversion.

Brings it back to fourth and six. He's just not to be trusted, in my opinion. Packers are getting healthy. I do like the Packers a lot in this spot. All right. I think I'm convinced. The thing that had me a little worried is Shanahan, and I talk about this every week for the regular listeners.

Shanahan is great as a road dog. With Jimmy Garoppolo, they're 10 and three as road dogs. They're the sexy underdog bet of the week. And one thing that's interesting, I mean, we talked about the favorites went five and one last week with the 49ers, obviously being the upset. But I think that because of last year,

we're a little conditioned to say, Hey, the underdogs are going to cover some of these games. But this, you know, last year it was such an amazing year for the underdog. I think we maybe got conditioned, but this year it's about 50,

50. So, you know, read that how you will. But I think that just saying like, well, the underdogs are going to cover games this week because they didn't last week. That doesn't, that's not necessarily a thing. And to that point, Aaron Rodgers is almost unbeatable at home, especially in the playoffs, especially off a bye. 12-5-1 against the spread off a buy.

He's covered 69 out of 111 games at home, so about 70%. I think the play on this, honestly, I'm going to say my pick is Packers minus six. The play on this, I think, is bet this live. And if you like Green Bay, try to get them at minus three or something like that, especially if the Niners get the ball first or something. to get them at minus three or something like that you know especially if the niners get the ball first or something um but i do i don't see san francisco winning this game on the road the weather is going to be crazy cold this is like classic aaron rogers fu i'm at home i'm the mvp against the team that passed on me like i i just don't want to go against him i just think the six

is a little high but green Bay is the better team, so I think you just got to lay it. A couple other things to note. Deebo Samuel, anytime touchdown, just take that wager. Like, I think I saw Fox Bet gave it to me, like, minus 110. Great, minus 105. I'm in.

Elijah Mitchell over rushing yards. It's fairly interesting here, because the Packers' rush defense is 28th. And I think the Niners will steady diet of running the ball, right? Like, I don't know what his number is. Again, it's Wednesday. I have to specifically ask some companies I work with what the numbers will be later in the week. But it does feel like Elijah Mitchell, the running back for the Niners, right?

And over—because the Niners are going to try to win one way, right? They're going to try to run the football, play action pass. Other thing to note, too, the Niners have held 15 of 18 quarterbacks under their season average of passing yards this season in their games. So there's a good play, I think, for Aaron Rodgers. Again, just Packers run the football. Niners don't give up explosive plays on offense in the passing game. And you take the Aaron Rodgers under here.

Might be somewhere to look to. It's, I feel like the path, it's very possible that the Niners cover this six and still lose. Like, that's the thing. I think this is such a good teaser game for that exact reason. Because the game script you're talking about is a million handoffs. Like, Aaron Rodgers just making one or two more plays. When they played this season, that's how it went, right? Like Aaron Rodgers had a great last drive.

The Packers won by two, I think. Like that's how this game might end up going. But there is the possibility that, you know, here we are again. It's what's the story with the 49ers at all times? Injuries, right? We're talking about Jimmy Garoppolo. We didn't even really mention Bosa or Fred Warner, who everyone's like, oh, they'll play play we don't know yeah the 49ers are always hung

together by duct tape and it just feels like you know we're forgetting about green bay they've been kind of under the radar all year right right and again they're getting healthy dude which is a huge difference compared to these other teams that really aren't yeah that's true all right we like this one as a teaser maybe a live play those are the saturday games um we're both on green bay and we're both on tennessee i'm wondering if there's difference here uh the rams are going to tampa they're playing the bucks uh the bucks are laying three this is going to be another very popular underdog this i have already bet the bet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and I feel wonderful doing so.

Guys, when are we going to stop wager against Tom Brady? Why do we keep doing this? It doesn't make any sense. Matt, he, before, so 2018, remember, last year it was a 2019 New England. He lost the final playoff game of his career at home in that game with, like, me and you playing wide receiver, right? He had no weapons.

Before that, he hadn't lost at home in a playoff game since 2012. All right? This season as well, right? Hasn't he covered, like, 13 of the last 18 home games he's played? He obviously covered last week. He's covered seven of the last eight this season. Like, guys, this is a very good football team and they play better because tom brady is their quarterback did you watch how fast they played last weekend they were flying around the football

field yes tristan wirfs the right tackle probably gonna play but beat up ankle center ryan jensen hers hers ankle but also came back in the game. But they got healthy on defense. They looked much better. Matt Stafford threw the ball 17 times against the Cardinals. If he throws it 17 times again, the Rams have won that game. But guess what? He's not going to throw

the ball 17 times in this game. He's going to throw the ball 30 times in this game. And two of those are going to Tampa Bay. Like, we already know how this is going to happen. They're going, and look, we're getting to the part of the show where,

and we didn't even mention it for the Niners and Packers, rematches of games that happened 18 weeks ago mean nothing for this weekend, guys. Zero. Nothing. These teams are completely different.

The situation is completely different. Right? Tom Brady and the Bucs have played the entire season for this moment, right? Yeah. Look, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Von Miller, great players. And Jalen Ramsey, Mike Evans, right? Mike Evans might struggle. But guess what?

They'll find Gronk. They'll find Scotty Miller. They'll find someone else, right? I have no doubt Tom Brady will move the ball. On the flip side, Matt, I just don't trust Matt Stafford. On the road, getting three points, like get out of here with that. So I like Bucs minus three. I think it's a lower scoring game though, but I really do like Bucs minus three. Yeah. I mean, all of what you said is I totally agree with one thing to add is you talked about the quarterbacks Tom Brady you just you just don't bet against him at home he's covered 75 percent of his playoff

games favored under seven including all of the last six the Bucks are dominant at home their offense plays better at home their defense is top five in DVOA at home they've won six out of seven against playoff teams they They're battle tested. But we didn't even really talk about Matt Stafford, who's since from November or later in his career, he's played as an underdog in 37 games.

He's won four. He's 11 and 41 in November or later against teams that are over 500. We just watched the Cardinals go on national TV and crap their pants for a game just watched the Cardinals go on national TV and crap their pants for a game. Like the Cardinals came out flat.

They had no clue what was going on. They aren't the same team without DeAndre Hopkins. Who cares about the Cardinals? The Rams did not totally look great in that game at any point. They got that weird pick six in the end zone. They had to score on that dumb quarterback sneak that took 18 tries like that game ended up feeling like a bit of a blowout but the story there was the

cardinals were bad not that the rams have this thing totally figured out i agree i i get it the rams are good they're a tasty underdog they have you know they have a chance they've beaten this team before but it's it's i mean this might be a little bit of a spoiler for our next pick, I think. But, like, just don't bet against Tom Brady laying three points at home in the playoffs to Matt Stafford. Like, it's just not that complicated. If I'm wrong, fine. It really isn't. It really isn't.

But, like, that's, if we're making a pick, you've got to take the Bucs minus three. And you can't really overthink it, I think. 100% agree. Yeah. All right. Well, I mean, that's a good segue into possibly the best divisional game I think we can remember. And that's the Bills and the Chiefs. This line has moved quite a bit.

It's about one and a half or two right now. And the reason that it keeps moving is everyone is on the Bills. Everyone. Guess what, guys? This podcast is not. i haven't even talked about about this but i already know where matt's going because matt and i've done this show for three years now we think alike guys okay again throughout the game that happened earlier this year between these teams they're different teams the chiefs have four starters in on defense that

will either play or are playing now different than that game, right? Buffalo Switcher offensive lineup, they have their linebacker back. Sorensen, I promise you, will not play as much as he did in game one. But here's why more than anything else. I know what I'm getting with Kansas City. I know what I'm getting. I'm getting good offense and some offensive lulls, right? Like they kind of, sometimes it just doesn't work out as well.

But I know I'm going to, you know, five touchdowns in 11 minutes is not going to happen again. But I know we're getting 28 to 31 points. Done. I'm going to get it. They've been here before. This is, I mean, you heard Andy Reid talk about it, right? Like once you get a taste of chocolate cake, you want more chocolate cake. This is their chocolate cake time, right?

I know what I'm getting. I know what I'm getting. What I don't know what I'm getting from the Buffalo Bills, okay? So we talk about football outsiders and we talk about the numbers that they have, but I can give you basic numbers or advanced numbers. The Buffalo Bills are 32nd in variance this season, which means that each week they play a different game. And I'll give you the great example for that, right? So here's Josh Allen's last six games. You ready? Tampa Bay, they lost. He threw the ball 54 times for 308 yards, okay? The following week, they beat Carolina. He had 210 yards passing, 55% completion rate. The next weekend, he threw for 314 yards in a win against New England, the 1-8 New England. He played out

of his mind, right? The following week, they play Atlanta. He completes 42% of his passes. Then they play the Jets, 53% of his passes. Then all of a sudden, last weekend, the best game in NFL history

for any offense ever. What am I getting, Matt, from Buffalo? Look, every single week, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down. Kansas City has their flaws but i

kind of know what i'm getting from them and i'm telling you guys the chiefs hear all this talk and it's wednesday as we record this we're gonna hear for four more freaking days i'm doing my best matt to not not engage on twitter but all the stuff of like i'd rather have josh allen than pat mahomes like i god mahomes won a super bowl super bowl mvp played in another super bowl records the mvp like what are we doing matt he do you know last game do you know his what his stat line was last game i promise you don't because no one talked about it five touchdowns he was 30 for 39 for 400 yards yep yeah i mean that's what happens with him right it's like you get i mean we talked we always joke about this on text because i think you have a fake chiefs persecution complex but you're you're right

like people aren't talking about mahomes because that's what we expect out of him fair or unfair um i think that this is just not that complicated and we i could make this very quick i'll add a few more things that i thought about in doing the prep for this. First is the Chiefs, when Mahomes is a three-point favorite or shorter or an underdog, the Chiefs are 14-4-1 against the spread. That's about 80%. My broad take on this,

and if you'll notice, all the other games we took, the Bills blew out the Patriots, who when you actually look at that game, and granted, I bet on the Patriots plus four. Same, yeah. Mack Jones on the road in a freezing cold playoff game. Probably not a great spot, right?

Derek Carr and the Raiders going to Cincy. Again, beat up, had this crazy season, probably a little bit vulnerable. The Rams against the Cardinals. probably a little bit vulnerable. The Rams against the Cardinals, the 49ers playing Dallas, who by the way, should have won that game if they had half of a coaching staff that could figure out how to use their timeouts

and get down the field. All of those teams feel like they're coming in a little bit overrated. And I feel like we could look at this game on Monday and go, how are we not laying more than three with the Chiefs at home in the playoffs? Like, that's just what you do. Like, you just don't. This is a gift.

Whether you're rooting for the Bills or not, and frankly, I think I am rooting for the Bills. I think it'd be awesome to see the Bills. No disrespect to you and Mitch and the Chiefs, but it'd be great to see the Bills make the leap, slay the dragon, but I just don't think that it's smart to bet that they will at

this number. Let's take the Chiefs. As a matter matter of fact if you're seeing this under two still go do it now hit pause it's at one and a half i think some places here's an interesting stat um since 2000 teams that have won in the wild card weekend by scoring 45 points or more are one and four against the spread and oh and five in the divisional round wow like you can make the case that was a super bowl last weekend right yeah all the teams that won it's like all of them felt like they were such triumphant wins and now it's like okay the city just was like oh like i can't say whatever like okay we won

um yeah ben roethlisberger's last game like Like, we'll just sleep through it. Yeah, and they did it early on. Like, they have to start faster, obviously. But, man, look, and to be fair, if Josh Allen plays as well as he can, Chiefs probably won't win the game. Yeah, I'm fine with that idea. But, again, we have – Josh Allen this season has had a two-week stretch

where he played sort of the – like a back-to-back good game, right? It was – really, it was kind of a – I'll give him a four-week stretch where he played sort of the, like a back-to-back good game, right? It was really, it was kind of a, I'll give him a four-week stretch. It was week three through week six here. Or really you could go by week seven, depending on rating, where he had five straight games over 100 passer rating.

I know rating is not the best, but I'm just kind of looking at basic box score numbers here, right? Outside of that game, he would have a rating of 125 and then 72. 115, 75. 104, 17. 157 was last weekend. It would tell you the next week, and even when he had like a 129 passer rating, the next weekend it was 100. 139, 107. Like, the next weekend, all season long, he has not played as well as he did the weekend before, which is nothing wrong with that,

but the point is that there has not been the same consistency the entire season as other teams. Lastly, too, according to Football Outsiders, they have the easiest schedule the entire season. It's ranked 32nd.

The Chiefs are ranked 6th. The Chiefs have played a lot of tough football games. I think they're ready for the moment. And we get Chiefs against either hosting the Bengals or going to Tennessee. I'm glad you brought up the strength of the schedule. The Bills wins this season. Obviously, New England twice, and of course, the Chiefs, but that was a long time ago.

They beat the Dolphins twice, the Jets twice, Washington, the Texans, the Saints, the Panthers, and the Falcons, and it was the Saints later in the season. They lost to the Bucks, the Colts, the Titans, the Patriots, and the Steelers. All playoff teams are close in the case of Indy. Kansas City battle tested oh yeah I forgot to mention they also lost to the Jaguars thank you Hank

yeah the Chiefs are much more battle tested tough place to win a playoff game I just think that you have to do it whether you're rooting for the Bills or not. Mahomes has lost two playoff games both to Tom Brady. That guy's pretty good alright why don't we so there are four picks we're aligned which whether you're rooting for the Bills or not. Mahomes has lost two playoff games, both to Tom Brady. That guy's pretty good. All right, why don't we... So there are four picks.

We're aligned, which means that we're going to go 0-4, but we like all the favorites, right? I mean, if you were to put a teaser with the Packers, how would you do that? Because there's not really a great... I mean, you could go to the Chiefs, I guess, at plus 4.5, which is probably the best leg to do this on, I would imagine.

But it's really not like an ideal second. Again, Bengals plus 9.5, I think. I don't even know if I love that, to be honest. Maybe the Rams. Or I actually think you can tease the under in Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, up to 54.5. Or you could tease the points down in the Chiefs-Bills game. That's at 54 and

a half you could get that to 48 and a half that feels pretty pretty comfortable you're going over that yeah yeah but you have to find that's the way that's the best way to play the packers game yeah teasing teasing aside and a total that's that's advanced that requires some sort of advanced degree i know i know you i know you don't i know you don't like it but i i bet totals is more than you do. It's like a totally different skill set. All right, let's take a break and we'll come back

and we'll play some mat lives. All right, it's time to bring back a fan favorite, the mat libs. It's completing a sentence here. This first one is pretty interesting um the nfl fined bruce arian's fifty thousand dollars for hitting his own safety andrew adams this fine jeff is blank appropriate don't touch your players don't hit your players it's that simple um i didn't see this when it happened i saw it today because I looked it up

just don't hit your players don't hit other men like your coach don't hit players it's only worse in college when this happens at least you know at least if your physical contact player is getting paid for the week just don't touch your players man it's appropriate

I agree I hadn't seen this hit I just watched it he hits him right in the helmet it's almost a surprise that Adams didn't take a swing at Arians I agree. I hadn't seen this hit. I just watched it. He hits him right in the helmet. It's almost a surprise that Adams didn't take a swing at Arians. By the way, Arians, didn't he have like a torn Achilles or something? What's he doing running around the field punching people? I think he still has a torn Achilles. Man, underrated toughness by Bruce Arians to be a UFC fighter with a torn Achilles there. Here's a good one.

The best available NFL head coaching job is? It's either the Bears or Jacksonville, right? Because you have the quarterback situation there, right? Yeah. But it's got to be Chicago because no one... Raiders, maybe? Yeah, but you're playing tough. I would say it's the Bears with Justin Fields.

You have some good pieces there to play with. Jacksonville is a perpetual loser. Dolphins, maybe? Dolphins are a good one. I mean, I think ownership is the other big factor here. I'll say this about Jacksonville. And this has sort of nothing to do with this. But there is no chance, none, when you see these mock drafts coming out

and you see like, oh like you know if i'm a washington fan or if i'm you know uh i don't know team picking in the middle of the round philly that i'll be able to get one of these quarterbacks there is no chance none that all three of these quarterbacks willis uh pickett and uh who am forgetting? Corral. No chance that more than two of them are left after number 10. And if you're Jacksonville, there's no reason for you to stick in that top pick. I don't care who the pass rusher that you like is, whether it's Thibodeau or whether it's the kid from Michigan, Hutchinson, or some offensive lineman. You trade that pick.

If you're Jacksonville, you can get out of that pick and get three first-rounders from Philly or whatever you want to do. I think Jacksonville has this underrated war chest. If they have the number one pick from last year in Lawrence, who everyone loved, then you have the possibility to get three, four first-round picks for somebody to trade up and get the quarterback that they want. I think that's a really good job, and they have an owner that is reluctant to pull the trigger pull the trigger on a firing,

even when the coach embarrasses them. Okay. I mean, do you, do you think that you need to trade out of that? A hundred percent. Why wouldn't they? Like,

I don't care if it's anyone short of like, say it's Micah Parsons who they were able to pick as an edge rusher. How much better are they? Like, do they go from three wins to five? You're right. Yeah. Possibly. Yeah. yeah i mean that's not great like you should you should trade out and get and get a bunch of picks i just think it's unless it's a quarterback there's no point isn't isn't always the rule like trading back is the way to go unless you can get a quarterback i think right like right

you know the difference that the difference in your win total based on whether you have a good quarterback or not, everything else is almost irrelevant. Okay, let's see. Let's talk about Kyler Murray here. So the extension talks have started. If you were in charge, you would do blank with Kyler Murray. I'd fire his coach and hire a new coach and figure out if he's good or not. I mean, right?

Like, this is it for as good as he'll be under Cliff Kingsbury. And you might never know how good he'll be if you don't hire another coach. So I think they should just let him play on his fifth-year option and let it see how it goes. I mean, I think he could be much better, but we will never know unless he's a new coach. I don't know. Don't you feel like the quarterback can transcend the coach sometimes? Like,

I don't think that it's fair to put all this on cliff. Oh, a hundred. Yeah, sure. Sure. And, and,

and, and Murray every year is always kind of hobbling at the end of the year, limping a little bit, right. He keeps getting banged up. It's not all on him, but I would like to see him in a different offense though. I mean,

we never get the opportunity. It feels like cliff Kingsbury is going to be someone's offensive coordinator pretty soon. That feels like that's what's going to happen. Southeast Georgia. All right, Jeff, last question. Let's pick our Super Bowl right here. Who do you think it is with eight teams left? What do you think it breaks down as?

I think it is Chiefs. And if not, it's Buffalo. I mean, the winner of this game is going to the Super Bowl. The NFC is tough for me because I say don't bet against Tom Brady, but I really think that the Packers are going to take it this year. I think it's Chiefs-Packers, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers won, but that'd be a fun game to watch, man.

Chiefs-Packers. It'd be like strength on strength, man. It'd be a fun game to watch, man. Chiefs-Packers. It'd be like strength on strength, man. It'd be fantastic. If everyone's healthy, that would come down to last possession. It'd be a fabulous game. Obviously, I'm rooting for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl,

but at some point, if Rodgers doesn't do it this year, I'm not sure he's ever going to do it in Green Bay again. I agree. That's my prediction as well. The two best teams for most of the season. I think I think Tampa Bay could be there, but all the injuries are going to catch him at some point.

I think they're, you know, Tom Brady seems always going to go one game past where they should. They're going to win this week. I don't think they could go up against a full strength team in Lambeau in the cold without potentially worse and Godwin and maybe for net. Like it's, it's a lot of, I mean, Antonio Brown was a big part of the offense in the playoffs. Yeah.

He was our most targeted receiver when he was on the field this year. I, I think I took, I think I took just, just to have a little bit of the emotional, I think just a little bit of emotional hedge here. Yeah. I took Buffalo versus Green Bay at plus 800

and Buffalo versus Tampa Bay at plus 1500 for Super Bowl matchup. That's pretty good. Those exact matchups are great. I have a ton of futures left on all of the teams, I think, that are pretty much left. I got fortunate. But you can still get a decent number on like Tennessee.

Let me see what I can find here. The thing about this is, again, like I could just take Kansas City money line this weekend and make that money back, right? Like I could just, that's what's the good part of these future bets, right? Like if I bet $10 on that wager, I just take the Chiefs money line to make $10.

And then I even even or if buffalo wins then i'm basically there already i can do the same thing next week because i'll make more on the plus 800 bet than i would you know betting the money line for whoever buffalo's playing yeah if you like buffalo like this week you should take them plus 225 to win the afc like you definitely should do that i don't think i have I can't see any wagers here for – If you like the Rams to beat the Bucs, like you can get them plus 350 to win the AFC. You can always hedge out of that, you know, in next week.

Okay, we have possible Super Bowl matchups. So Kansas City Green Bay is plus 490. That's the favorite right now. Chiefs over Packers, you can see for plus 1,100. Yeah, so look, Buffalo Tampa Bay is plus 799 Packers can see for plus 1,100. Yeah. So look, Buffalo-Tampa Bay is plus 799. I got that at plus 1,500. I see Chiefs over Packers plus 1,100 and Packers over Chiefs plus 1,200.

I might sprinkle on both of those. Yeah. Those are good. I like those. Yeah. So guys, there's plenty of ways to make money in this game. That's right. You just have to – and look, it's taken us a couple years, of course,

when you first start wagering to figure out, like, how this is done. But there's ways to – certain props here and there. Like, I took Monday night, Matt, Cam Akers was like 27 yards was his rushing total. I was like, that feels low. That took us over. Like, Kyler Murray was at 43 rushing yards. I was like, that looks really high. And I took the under and it hit.

Like, there's just like ways to look at the game differently through some of these props. There really is. I want to look at Derek Henry's number really quick. It's just hard. So, I work for Fox Sports and I asked Fox look at Derek Henry's number really quick it's just hard so I work for Fox Sports and I asked Fox Bet at times let's see what here and I asked them for some props

early in the week to start writing and so I got Derek Henry's number from them and this again this is not as I'm talking right now it might not be actionable this might not be what the actual number comes out of but 92 and a half wow that feels that feels low as I'm talking right now, it might not be actionable. This might not be what the actual number comes out of, but 92 and a half. Wow, that

feels... That feels low. It feels like they're just going to run him into the grounds. Remember, he had... What did he have? 250 carries in nine games or something? It was some insane number of carries. It's insane, yeah.

He was the leading Russian league. It's like week nine or whatever, a month later. I see Tom Brady overpassing touchdowns two and a half at plus 150. That's pretty tasty. I might jump in on that one. Henry finished season six and carries. Didn't play half of it. Crazy.

Yeah. He is the workhorse for them. The only thing that I have still outstanding that I'm going to have issues with is the Comeback Player of the Year. I have a lot of money on Dak. There's really no way to buy out of it. But I can't imagine. I mean, Dak, these are pretty much allowed. These are pretty much decided by week 14 or 15 most of these awards so oh here's a comeback

part of the year i see one of these like consensus that's minus 835 really oh so someone knows something interesting that yeah because burrow was like even money like a few days ago and that yeah maybe and then i told you like i took rogers at minus 400 to win the MVP and put like 400 bucks on it. I went a hundred, but like, he's not losing the MVP. Yeah, that's right. Beats the CD, Jeff. Yeah, yeah, exactly. You get a hundred bucks.

Why not? I will say really quick, I want to tell you a story about a sports book that I've been using here in New York legally. Okay, let's do it. So I mentioned I had this very good weekend and the i think that this book might be a little bit of trouble because they you know like you sign up and like everybody i know has signed up with this particular book because you can sign up and not make a deposit and they just give you three hundred dollars and i've told people are like oh send me your invite code like

send me or whatever i'm like no no they're just giving you that. Like you just have that and you could bet it. And I don't even think you have to bet at all to be able to withdraw it. But I have like four parlays that they haven't counted as completed yet because I just think that they can't pay them out because there are these like massive, like all the favorites won. So I have like a bunch of teasers sitting out there. And I showed you my one Moneyline parlay of uh four of the favorites i just laid off the buffalo new england game and san francisco so that one paid out like that paid out like 12 to 1 and it's just sitting in there and they haven't counted the chiefs as a win yet and i keep emailing them like hey when's this gonna pay out i i'm yeah it probably it just is it is it a lesser known it is not it is a well known sports book

it's not it's it's not like the the sports book that people might guess but it's it's one with a casino I'll tell you that interesting yeah so I think they might have taken a bath I think they might like really be in the hole and they need

some upsets this weekend or something that'd be pretty funny if that's the case They might like really be in the hole and they need, they need some upsets this weekend or something. That'd be pretty funny. If, if that's the case, they need, they need the chiefs to win. I bet.

And they just have not answered you. No. And they keep sending me the same email. Fuck it. It's Caesars. It's Caesars. If anyone from Caesars is listening to this, you owe me money.

If every time I email them, it's the, it's the same email that I keep getting back. That's like, here, we'll get back to you. But here's some questions about bonus cash. And I'm like, no, no. I want an 11 to 1 parlay and you still owe it to me. That's fantastic. So, Caesars, get it together.

Get it together, Caesars. Come on, man. I'm checking my account last. Yeah, I did well on Sunday because I had that huge teaser. Chief teaser uh chiefs i took two chiefs bucks teasers i just kept hammering the chiefs bucks teasers i did too i just kept i just kept making them until otherwise i gotta find a a teaser to do i mean a money line a money line parlay of packers bucks Bucks, Chiefs pays out at, oh, plus 301. Not bad. Really?

Yeah. Huh. I guess the Chiefs because they're such a short favorite. Minus 135, yeah. Huh. That's tasty. I just did it. So it's done.

Okay. A bet has been wagered. A bet has been wagered. And perhaps I will do the same. And perhaps if it wins, I will receive the money for it. Yeah, so good luck with that. All right, guys. Good luck with your wagers this weekend.

We'll talk to you next week. Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. For Jeff Schwartz. For Matt Ford, who his name on our stream yard is Darren Revell. If you guys haven't noticed, I like Revell. We know Revell very well. We love Revell. If you guys haven't noticed, I like Revell. We know Revell very well. We love Revell. Just buddy.

Lots of joy and laughs provided this week from the content. I appreciate the content machine that is Darren Revell at times. All right, everyone. Talk to you guys next week. Good luck with your bets. Good luck with your bets. Good luck with your wagers. And go Chiefs.