Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 1

Episode Date: September 8, 2022

Degenerates, rejoice! Geoff and Matt are back with the Best Bets for the first week of the 2022 NFL season. As they are going to do every week from now until the Super Bowl, the boys go through every single game on tap for this weekend, sharing their picks against the spread, and picking out the five wagers that give you the best chance of lining your pockets. As an extra special treat, Geoff and Matt started out his season by getting all five right! If you like gambling with Geoff and Matt, make sure to rate and comment on the episode, plus follow the pod so you can notifications whenever they release new picks all season long. Disagree with any of Geoff's core tenets of gambling? Tweet @geoffschwartz and tell him how you feel. Thanks for listening!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's Thursday September 8th I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford this is Jeff Schwartz a smart new power by the varsity podcast network and we're here the first NFL game is tonight we have done it everyone we have made it to the start of the season and our weekly wagering show has arrived where we will pick five games a week to wager on in the super contest and we're taking the lines as as they are now on Wednesday. They're not the official Super Contest lines. Typically, those come out later tonight. We're recording this during the day. On Wednesdays, we will do

throughout the season. Last season, we were 45 and 45, Matt, which, again, is not good enough to make anyone money. Yeah, you can't faint us and make money, and you can't ride with us and make money. We had some good stretches. We started last year at 3-2 the first week, and then we had some down weeks.

Some down weeks. We threw it a couple of 0-5 weeks, but we battled back the last back half of the season to get back up. We were at one point in Week 5, we were below 30%, all the way back up to 50%, which happens each and every year. We need to avoid, Matt, this year, the week two through week six. Do we overthink things? What do we do in that stretch? Two years in a row now, we've had really bad first, not the first week.

We're fine the first week, but it feels like week two to six, two to seven, we've been kind of off our games. Yeah, well, good morning, Jeff. Welcome back to the NFL season. I will say that I think we tend to overreact, you and I. Like I think we tend to do pretty well in week one. We tend to then bomb in week two because we're like we're smarter than everyone. Like we know what's going to happen. We're going to zag off the result that everyone doesn't see, whatever.

But I think last year our problem was we were still like adjusting from the weird covid year and we kept like trying to we were hammering the home teams at the beginning of the year thinking that was an edge and we just kind of got caught so i feel like we're just back to normal and traditionally i'm not a mathematician but traditionally i think we're pretty good at this and i think we got to go over 500 this year that's a given i want us to set that bar a little bit higher. Let's not get crazy, but if we can just get over 53% here, everybody's going to be happy about the result. I think that's a reasonable goal.

I'm with you here. Let's do that. And again, we're going to go over every game, and we will give you totals we like, possibly your props. It's still Wednesday. It's kind of hard to get to some of those. But we do, we will end up with five total wagers. And at the very end of each week,

we'll give you some college wagers again early in the week. I'll kind of let you know where I'm heading on that side as well. All right, Matt, let's start with Thursday Night Football. We typically don't include this in our weekly picks. However, this Thursday night game, there is a side I definitely would like to be on. There certainly is. So let's see what the line we're getting now is.

I think we're getting two and a half. Is that right? It fluctuates depending on the book. Again, we don't... Hey, if anyone's sports book, if you're listening right now and you want to sponsor this podcast, you know where to find me. So we're using the best line we can get.

Sorry, everybody. I mean, obviously, if it's minus two and one random book has it at minus four, we're not going to use minus four. But, you know, I think that, you know, consensus line right now is two and a half for the Bills. Yeah, so two and a half or two. That's the Bills favored by a two or two and a half in the bills. Yeah. So two and a half or two, um, that's the bills favored by two or two and a half in Los Angeles. The defending Superbowl champs get no respect at home. This one really

jumped out to me. I'm curious if we're on the same side. Oh, I'm totally on the Rams here. Um, the, the, the, the Thursday night game of week one, um, has been happening now 17 years, okay? 17 seasons now it's been happening. The Super Bowl champion plays Thursday night. Do you know what the record of the Super Bowl champion is? Just straight up, at home, in this game. No, hit me. 14-3.

14. Now, to be fair, most of the time they're not playing the Super Bowl favorite in week one. Okay? So, you know, the Rams are playing Buffalo here, okay? There's still a situation where I think if you look at this game, you can totally see Buffalo winning by 10.

I can totally see that outcome happening. But I think out of respect for the Rams, who are, again, Super Bowl champions, and out of respect for the trends that we have seen I would take the Rams here now is it one of my favorite five Matt I don't think so but the Rams are the play here at plus money at home off a Super Bowl they are certainly the play if you're choosing a side in

this you're choosing the Rams yeah I I'm with you this one jumped out to me a lot. I think this one does depend on the number a bit. But a few things to note. You talked about the trends. Sean McVay undefeated in week one, both straight up and against the spread. He's just a guy who, with the benefit of more preparation, has always been good. You mentioned the Super Bowl winners in week one home games. Super Bowl winners in week one home games. Since the Thursday night game where the Super Bowl winning team hosts someone on the Thursday night game in week one, those teams

are 12-6-3 against the spread since 2000. This game something like, last night it was in the 80% range, 72% of the money is on Buffalo as a road favorite. Going into LA that's just always a trap. Like you always want to take a good home team as a dog when everybody's against them. That always feels like the kind of bet you want. This one would take a lot of stones from us because we're going against

maybe the best player in football on week one. But I don't know, last year, like Buffalo didn't get it together until later in the season. Like they played some pretty weak, some pretty weak teams at the beginning of the year. They're not going to run Josh Allen 100 times. I just think this is a pretty good spot for the Rams.

It is a great spot for the Rams. Again, I don't like using this podcast typically to do Thursday night games. I feel really strongly about it. It's in the maybe pile for me depending on how we end up with other wagers. Again, I lead Rams here in this spot. The next game, though, the first game on Sunday on our list, this is the first game I wagered on when the Lions came out in April, whenever they came out in May, whenever the Lions came out after the draft.

The first game I wagered on is this game right here. Yeah, so this is a good lesson. If you're new to this show, you're going to have to get used to Jeff and I were not, we're not going to go for the clicks all the time, guys. We're going to try to pick the games that are a little bit ugly. Those are the ones where you win your money. And this is a classic. It's the Colts at the Texans. No one's going to be watching this game, but a lot of sharps are going to be betting on it. This line has moved down to the Colts are favored by seven on the road in Houston.

Go ahead. This is absolutely the Houston Texans. I took them at plus eight. I'll take them at plus seven above the touchdown there, or really at the touchdown. A couple things here. I mean, this is the classic right divisional home dog, especially over a touchdown or out of touchdown, I should say.

This line has been moved down throughout the postseason, throughout the offseason. As we're seeing now, more and more sharps coming on this number. And to me, this is, again, it's not a bet really on the Texans, even though I think the Texans are better than maybe we give them credit for. Again, you mentioned this, I think, in our preview show. They have a good left tackle. They have good running backs.

They have a good wide receiver. They have some pieces on defense, not a lot of pieces on defense. But more than anything else, do you know Frank Wright's record in Week 1 as the coach of the Colts? Sure do. Go for it. 0-4. And again, they're not losing to good teams.

Last year, they lost to Seattle in Week 1. The year before that, they went down and lost to Jacksonville, which Jacksonville's only win in 2020. They have not played well in week one, and they've had five different quarterbacks doing this. It's the fifth quarterback now in five years for the Colts. So to me, man, I'm on the Texas here plus seven. Again, I wouldn't take anything less than seven,

so if it gets to six and a half, maybe stay off of this, Matt. But it's seven, man. I love Houston in this spot. Again, hold your nose and do it. Home divisional dogs, which weren't – look, in previous years, Matt, this has been a slam dunk. Like home divisional dog over a touchdown. Last year, some of these trends did not pan out quite like we thought they would

and historically have. But I'm going right back to this one again, man. I am totally okay with taking the Texans here plus the seven. I completely agree with this take. All the numbers back you up. The Texans, or I'm sorry, the Colts, you mentioned they haven't won under Frank Reich in week one, but they also haven't covered in week one.

They're 0-3-1 against the spread in week one. The thing is, Jeff, is like divisional dogs over a touchdown, always in the beginning of the season, you always want to bet them they cover at 60 or more i think um but uh home division one week one division home dogs that are getting more than three and a half points when two-thirds of the time so this is a slam dunk and frankly like i think we're gonna see this theme a lot as we go through this slate in week one like we could have mentioned it with the last game there's a lot of teams that people just sort of like for the season that they're putting a lot of eggs into the week one

basket right like people think the Colts are going to be good and the Texans are going to be bad like well you got to throw that out it's week one like if anything the bad teams are going to be a little bit better in week one you would think because there's no injuries right there's there's no baggage like it's the first week. It's a home opener for Houston with a new coach, with Davis Mills that everybody's hyped about, Damian Pierce. We haven't seen what the deal is with Shaq Leonard in a while. The Colts are not, with a new quarterback, they're not going to be fully functional right out of the gate.

I have a feeling this is going to be a six and a half in the contest. I have a feeling the Sharps are going to push this one, which will, which will be tough. But if we can get it at seven, I'd like that. I'm in at seven right now. That is our first play. No questions asked. Cool. All right. Four to go. We've got a, maybe we're only in two games here. So this is a good clip for us. Speaking of teams that people are out on the jets are plus seven hosting the ravens it's possible joe flacco is going to be starting this game um i don't think we can really make a play here unless is the flacco news official i i'm not sure that i'm not seeing that i might still play i mean yeah you're not taking the jets here and you're not taking we're not laying seven

week one on the road are are we, either? No. I mean, Baltimore's going to kick their ass. Do you want Baltimore? I thought about it, to be honest. I mean, this goes against every instinct that you ever have. Yeah, but they're going to kick their ass. But Baltimore tends to just dominate in week one. Like, they're a great team with extra rest.

The Jets stink. Baltimore's coming in hot. I think Lamar is going to really start the season hot given the contract situation um but i think this is a pass like i think this is going to be one of these big line road favorites too are going to fall on their face i don't think it's baltimore but somebody's going to do it um so i i agree we can stay away from this perfect because the next game i think me and you are very much in line with our thoughts on this next one. Another divisional game.

The Cincinnati Bengals are six-and-a-half-point favorites hosting Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers. Are we fading the Super Bowl representatives out of the NFC? Yes, we are. So the loser of the Super Bowl has faced a tough time getting over their hangover week one. I'm sure you saw this too at Action Network. 4-18 against the spread since 2000. And you can make the case the Bengals are even better this game than they were at any point last season.

They're healthy in the offensive line, obviously with the additions they had in the draft as well, especially Dax Hill and whatnot on defense. But the Steelers, I think, I know Trubisky's not great, but there's a lot of back against the wall, chip on the shoulder stuff with Pittsburgh. And I feel like we always count them out, and that's the time to wager on them whenever someone counts them out. And I would love to get seven. I know we're not getting seven here.

We're getting six and a half. And the Bengals kicked their ass last season twice. So it's not like the Bengals can't play the Steelers. But I think we're taking a number here, and we're looking at the history of Mike Tomlin. More money right now is on the Bengals. This line has not moved at all, even with the Bengals having all that money on them.

So to me, I would very much be okay taking the Steelers. Again, a team that is always going to be solid. Divisional Dogs, by the way, 60% against the spread into 2005. Divisional Dogs, by the way, 60% against the spread in 2005. They're actually even better since 2014. Divisional Dogs since 2014 are covering at 76% rate in week one. Whew. Tomlin, 45, 23, and 2.

Yep. There you go. You said all the trends. I don't have much to add. 65% is a dog. Yeah. Tomlin is, yeah. Has to be them, right? Yep.

Yeah. It has to be. I don't love it because I do. I mean, I don't want to bet against Joe Burrow at all this whole season. But I do think that this is the time you have to do it. I have no additional numbers or trends to add to the ones you put out there. The question is basically, does this make our five? I think I would be more comfortable betting the Rams as a home dog

than maybe I would Mitch Trubisky on the road. But I agree that it's obviously a better number and it's a pretty good spot. But I don't know. I love Tomlin as a dog i feel like that's the one i bring up to you every single week because last year they weren't favored at all and i feel like i made the case for them every week but i'm i definitely would put this in the maybes it's it was one of the top ones i circled but um if it's between this and the rams i think it'd have to be it'd be a toss-up for me yeah um all right next uh next one up here um i i don't know man this was this

was tough for me tough one 49ers at bears uh the 49ers are seven point road favorites at the moments um but i i don't know can we bet on the bears i don't i i don't think i can this is the one a week one where i feel like you're like, holy shit, did the Bears really win this game? I mean, you know what I mean? And I don't really want to wager on the Bears here at plus seven, but Trey Lance has started. It's not Jimmy Garoppolo. We don't know what we're getting from San Francisco right now.

To be honest with you, it's not that the Bears are any good, but they're catching seven against a Trey Lance-led Niners team. That feels way too jimmy garoppolo fine take the seven man but i don't know matt i just i worry that we're giving a basically a rookie starting his third game seven points on the road feels like a like a tall task man it does it does this is purely a play on number, the fact that they're a big road favorite with a new quarterback like you mentioned. But the Bears suck, man. And the Bears also have a rookie head coach that they're going to have to be integrating. He's never coached a game before. They have a really inexperienced coaching staff.

I could see this. Mitchell's healthy. I could just see this one being like the handoff gimmick game with, with Samuel and Mitchell. They just kind of grind it out. I'm not sure that they, I'm not sure that the bears don't cover this, but I just don't know if one week in week one, I want to be betting the bears against the Niners. I agree though, that they're the right side. Worth noting Kyle Shanahan is a favorite, Kyle Shanahan is a favorite. Kyle Shanahan is a favorite.

He's not good. I don't have the number in front of me, but that's one that I bring up every year. 16-24 gets a spread. Yeah, it's not great. But this Bears team, I mean... They're terrible. Again, these are first-time head coaches and position coaches.

It's like, this is not going to be an easy game in Week 1. And then they have the Packers in Week 2. two it's gonna be a tough start for the bears yeah i i say like if if we're really hurting we can throw this in the mix but i i think this can be a pass um what do you think i'm you're passing on it for now yeah all right great i don't want to pay much attention to that game this is a game that a lot of those smart guys are on too it's another divisional game the saints are at the falcons great rivalry in the nfc south the saints with jamis winston and dennis allen are favored by five and a half points on the road in atlanta what do you think are the sharps on atlanta here they're starting to be this number has moved a lot and it's moved from three and a half to five and a half the money is still coming in on the saints if this would get to six in the contest

that's a that would be eye-popping but like i think this is more of a anti-saints case than a falcons are going to cover this game we though i you know what jeff before i even get into this are we sticking with our most sacred rule of this podcast, which is we do not take the Falcons? We have two rules on this podcast. You don't bet on Carson Wentz, you don't bet on Carson Wentz, and you don't bet on the Falcons.

I think that's a good rule. Yeah. Oh, man. I just... yeah i uh oh man um i just i i i would have i would have to avoid um avoid this game i can't do it i can't bet the falcons here yeah i i don't think i can either i do think if like if you're in a pick'em pool or whatever you got to take them here. The Falcons have been absolutely terrible. They're 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games. They're 0-6 in their last week one games against spread.

They're 0-4 against the spread in their last four as a home underdog. Like, they stink. Like, all the trends tell you that they're not going to do it. But I just, I think the Saints, every single person is putting the Saints in the playoffs. And it's like, guys, are we sure that Sean Payton wasn't the key to this team with Drew Brees? Are we sure that Chris Alave is the rookie of the year?

Maybe we should pump the brakes a little bit on this team. Oh, I'm with you there. I'm with you there. You know I've been strong on this. Yeah. So I think this is one of those that jumped out as it feels two or three points a little bit too strong on the saints but i'm just you know marcus mariota i no thanks um oh no no no chance no chance okay all right we're moving on we're going to uh the baker mayfield revenge bowl uh the panthers wow this line has moved a ton the panthers are now favored by one and a half. I believe this line has moved, what,

like four points, maybe more? Five and a half points. It opened at minus four for the Browns. The answer has to be the Panthers here, right? This is one that I think I early on, I would love to get some points, but they're within a field goal here. I do think there is something to the

revenge part of this for Baker Mayfield, but without Deshaun Watson, the Browns just aren't as good. I know they have pieces around them, but again, I do believe in this sort of revenge spot for Baker Mayfield. It's under a field goal. The Browns have Jacoby Brissett, a quarterback. They're just going to be pedestrian. The Panthers, by the way, have talented football players

on both sides of the ball. Defensive line, linebacker, secondary, they've drafted on the offensive line, they've got CMCs healthy, they have wide receivers. They just need Baker to be okay, man, to win a lot of these games. So

I'm good Carolina, point and a half here, minus a point and a half. They are, as Hank puts it here, they're 4-0 against the spread in their last four September games. They started fast last year, if you remember. I just like the Panthers here at home in this spot. Even the year before, in 2020

when Matt Rule was the first year head coach, they had a really fun week one game against the Raiders that came down to the very ends. Remember that one? It was very ends. I remember that one. It was like Teddy, Teddy Bridgewater and that team, they just hung around. They tend to start hotter than they finish.

So I agree. I mean, I think this is just a fun one. Like what are we, what are we worried about? Honestly, like, are you worried about getting burned by Brissette?

Like, I guess you're worried about miles Garrett. Like we're just completely taking this game over. But I don't know, man. Maybe. I think this is a really nice spot. Even though the line's moved quite a bit, which is a little bit of a red flag,

we're getting this. But it really hasn't gone through the key numbers, though, right? That's the thing. You're still getting this. Panthers win by two or more. I feel comfortable with that. Yeah. Well, it's switched sides.

I mean, there's that, but I will say that the money is still coming in on Carolina, and I bet that when the contest comes out, this is a two or maybe even two and a half. It's still getting 93% of the money, the Panthers. I don't think you're going to find a Browns better out there, so that's a little bit frightening. This is a short home favorite like with a very motivated quarterback the better quarterback um you know possibly the better defense like i i think i'm fine taking uh taking the panthers here yeah all right next one up here buddy two two teams that are gonna really get a ratings bonanza here the jaguars are at the commanders

um the line is the commanders by two and a half uh this line has moved quite a bit as well it's going down from four to two and a half everyone loves the jags uh yeah i i would take jacksville at three possibly or three and a half but not now i mean, I can't back a public road play like this under a field goal, right? I mean, everyone's on Jacksonville. They think Washington stinks, and there might be some truth to that. But Jacksonville is just not there yet. I think they're going to be really good down the road. But you're on the road here to a Ron Rivera rivera team who is a physical team who's going

to play tough who obviously has to avenge kind of the way they played at certain points last season and you have the quarterback that we won't talk about but i i can't back jacksonville under a field goal right i mean under a field goal on the road as like the huge public play here not a chance i i think this is an incredibly disrespectful line to washington i'm not advocating that we take them at all but i challenge anyone to find one position group where the jaguars are much better than washington in anything i think it's pretty overwhelming it's just if trevor lawrence everyone's sort of wish casting trevor lawrence that he's going to come out and just be awesome so this is a pass but pass, but I think this is another where people are like,

well, the Jags, they're going to be good this year. Like, let's just, you know, let's bet them week one. I just don't think that they're going to cover this. It's not good right now. It's not a good spot to be in for week one. Just, again, public, I'm just not, I'm not into it. Yeah. This is one of the least bet games of the week,

according to the Action Network data, and I would not be surprised if it stays that way. Actually, it is the least bet game of the week. Okay, so moving on to the... I feel like every week these two teams play in week one. It's the Patriots are at the Dolphins. For once, the Dolphins are actually favored at home, which is a little bit scary if you're them.

The Dolphins are three-and-a-half-weight favorites right now. What do you think? I mean, the play is the Patriots over a field goal, right? If you're looking at this spot right now, you have a heavy, heavy money on the Dolphins right now. They're still kind of unproven. They have a brand-new head coach. His first game against Bill Belichick. And I understand there's not much to like about New England.

I think the under is certainly in play here with New England's offense being run by Matt Patricia and the issues they've had so far in the preseason. Belichick took the team down five days early. He's lost seven of his last nine in Miami, just to maybe mix things up a little bit here. Matt, I would take New England plus three and a half, but I'm not sure it's one of my five favorite this week.

How do you feel about this? I feel similarly. I do think, I mean, look, Bill Belichick, one of the favorite stats that gets thrown around is Bill Belichick dominates rookie quarterbacks. He also dominates rookie head coaches. He's 23 and four against rookie head coaches. It's straight up. So he's winning 85% of those matchups.

So, you know, the thing about the Patriots losing in Miami I think actually goes the other way, where I would sort of say, like, they're due to win a game here. Like, I think people are really out on them because of some tweets from Tom Curran and like some bad some bad preseason games like the Patriots aren't going to be the Patriots are going to be ready to play like I think that that the Dolphins are kind of good but this is a first it's a it's a rookie head coach against Bill Belichick like maybe it's not worth overthinking it like I also I don't know I just I think that three and a half getting over a field goal for the Patriots is pretty appealing. It's just an ugly bet and they could just suck.

They honestly just could. Hey, I got one more stat for you. Bill Belichick, 33 and 12 straight up against coaches named Mike. Oh, okay okay that means absolutely nothing to this discussion but sure factor into your into your calculus zero zero that got no reaction i was i was so excited to tell you that stat that's uh that that took an enormous amount of research it's fun to say but it means absolutely nothing of course no i think it means a lot i don't know i disagree okay so anyone named mike's automatic fade of them against Bill Belichick. There we go. They got him around.

We got it. So what are we saying? This is a maybe? I put it in the maybes, yeah. All right. All right. We're on to the 4 o'clock game. So where are we here?

We've definitely got in the Panthers, and we've definitely got in the Texans. Yeah. We like the Steelers, and we like the Rams. Okay. So we're not fishing too hard here no no but i mean these games are less appealing i think in my opinion yeah well we've still got a few slots to fill here so the giants oh my gosh the giants are going to tennessee to play the titans the titans are laying five and a half god everyone's gonna want to bet the giants here and i will not allow us to do that, Jeff. Do you have to watch this game?

Is there a requirement that we have to play the eyes on this game? Everyone's on the Giants. I will not. I will not do that. I'm not doing it either. I'm not taking Tennessee minus 5.5, that dead number with the kind of fluttering offense they have recently.

This game stinks. We have to talk about it. I mean, it's week one, so we should pretend we talk about every team. But I have no interest in this game whatsoever. There's going to be, you know, it'll be three-fourths full in the stadium. And the Giants, I mean, the GM said basically the other day, like, yeah, we're going to stink. It's not my fault. Dave Gettleman left us with bad players.

But it just feels like, know it it they're they're just not trying to win this year yeah um so i agree rookie head coach week one is is not a good spot to go against mike rabel but this is a terrible number and the bad game so i do want to pass we uh we missed a one o'clock game jeff i want to circle back to which one because it is one of my favorite games it's uh detroit Philly, or sorry, Philly at Detroit. I said them backwards because the Lions are four-point home dogs in Week 1 against the Eagles. This is a 1 o'clock game. I did want to bring this one up. What do you think?

I got Detroit at plus 4.5 when this came out. My concern is that they're quarterbacked by Jared Goff, who stinks. But the Lions have a lot of talented football players, especially the offensive line. Like they can, in a game where you say, okay, the trenches matter a lot, the Lions can match up with the Eagles. The problem is Jared Goff again.

And this is a classic sharp play, right? Lions at home getting points over a field goal. There's reverse line movement, right? So reverse line movement for those who are new basically means that if you look at the amount of tickets being bought, right? So how many people are wager on each team? Typically one

team has more, one team has less. If that team with less tickets ends up with the line moving in their direction, that typically means that more money is hammering on that side, which is from the Sharps, right? Because Sharps are wagering big money, $10,000, $50,000, $20,000. So that moves the number. But again, you're not getting a lot of tickets. You're getting, again, like the Sharps are hammering that side. So you have a lot of tickets you're getting again like the sharps are hammering that side so you have a lot of money short amount of tickets and it moves in

that direction that's called reverse line movement i hope i just explained that well enough matt um we're getting that in this game yeah we're getting we're getting that and i think the reason is that this is again everyone's so high on the e Eagles, but let's calm down for a second. Should they honestly be four-point road favorites against the Detroit team, which was one of the best teams against the spread last year? They were a team every single – if we had just bet them every week, we would have probably been at the money in these contests. But you mentioned Jared Goff. Jeff, we're split on Jared Goff, but here is one thing that I'll say about him that even you can't argue with. He's undefeated

in week one against the spread in his career. So he comes out of the gate pretty well. Maybe it's just like the extra prep time. But I think that as a home dog here with Philly, who everyone's a little bit too hot on, I think this number might, I think in the contest they might put this one down to three because I think

this is like what all the Sharks are on. Maybe it will be a three and a half. But if you're getting over a field goal here, I feel like we have to throw this one in. I'm good with that. In my personal life, I bet this game plus four and a half when the Lions came out. So plus four I'm very comfortable with. Yeah. I also – I think too like these are two like – they win games probably the same way.

Like they're both like very physical up front, and then the Lions, they can move the ball down the field with some deep passes. I don't know if the Eagles can do that. I feel like they would just love to run this one all day. I think that's what the Lions' style is, too.

I don't know. This will be a fun game. Win or lose for either side, I think we'll learn something about each team. Alright, what do we got next? We're back into the four o'clocks. We added a contender. Your Kansas City Chiefs, Jeff. A huge road favorite.-point favorites in Arizona. I was surprised by this line because I feel like no one's in on the Chiefs

this year, but I guess I'm wrong. Well, this just steamed like yesterday, buddy. It was like a three, three and a half, four, and shot up to six. I don't know what they know about something maybe in the desert happening, but at six you can't touch the Chiefs here. I mean, even though Andy Reid has been brilliant in week one, I think he's lost one week one game in Kansas City otherwise I think they've won and covered every week one game I'd imagine just kind of think on top of my head the way they win in week one and I mean so we have two rules so far we talked about right we don't bend the

Falcons we don't bend on Carson Wentz we absolutely the fuck not bet on Cliff Kingsbury so um i'm not betting on arizona in this spot to tell you that even though that probably is the sharp and better play here but the chiefs defense is revamped they can probably run with arizona better than they have in the past i would i'd lean kansas city here but i'm not in this in this you know thing we're doing here not six yeah we we missed the number i'm taking them in in uh picking pools as well but that's a pass for me um very strange that we got this very late line move this one had been you mentioned pretty low all off season and then all of a sudden um maybe people realized you know the cardinals without deandre atkins stinks so uh that's gonna be a pass for us. Okay, so we've got Green Bay, Minnesota.

My apologies for mixing that up. Great game here. The Packers are road favorites. We are seeing them at one and a half or two. Why don't we, for the sake of the show, say one and a half? Green Bay on the road. Which side do you like? Oh, boy.

The play is the Vikings. Yeah. I don't love it, but that is the play in this game. We talked about week one divisional dogs, 76% against the spread since 2014. And you look at the Packers kind of so far in camp, trying to find the answers at wide receiver. David Bakhtiari, I think

is back this week, but we're not quite sure. Rodgers has been really quiet during training camp, oddly enough. He did the Rogan interview. He went on McAfee. But here's the thing about the vikings man people that i that i've talked to know kevin o'connell like him a lot they're brand new coach dude i could not pick him out from a lineup buddy i know nothing about this guy and i cannot

wager on him in week one as a brand new coach against a team that's won 39 regular teams in games the last three years and a team that's owned them like the the packers have owned the vikings and so as much as i think the right side is minnesota here just again and this is the thing about about this this gambling podcast right guys it's not often about like i would pick the packers to win this game straight up absolutely but that's different than gambling on the game right because if you're doing that if you this game straight up. Absolutely. But that's different than gambling on the game, right? Because if you're doing that, if you're picking straight up, you're not worried about the spreads, the trends.

You're just like, the Packers are better. They're going to win, right? That's the way you pick games, right? But when it comes to the spread and where the money's at, you have to take that into consideration and the trends as well. And it's why we end up betting the Texans a lot this year. Probably Jacksonville at home a lot this year. Like a lot of teams had the Lions and whatnot.

And, you know, our old boss, Chad Millman, said, you know, the right side is the winning side, right? So, you know, you might think the Packers are going to blow them out, but the Vikings, in my opinion, are the right side. They could certainly win this game. So I'd stay away from this, Matt. Again, I don't feel comfortable wager on Kevin O'Connell's team in week one, but I think if you're taking a spot in this game, you're taking Minnesota.

Yep, I think you explained it perfectly. Not much to add. I think that it's just too risky of a spot with an unknown rookie head coach. They just tend to not do well in the beginning of the seasons. Aaron Rodgers in week one, he's dominant against the af the nfc north uh i think this is just to stay away and enjoy the game because it's going to be a fun one um but i also wouldn't take too much out of this game right like i feel like this is going to be one of those games where the team looks a lot different in a few weeks like i think the reason if you really wanted

to take the Vikings is how is Rodgers going to play? I mean, Alan Lazard is apparently questionable for the game on Sunday. He might be going out there with Dobbs and a bunch of rookies and guys he hasn't played with before. So it could be one of those games where the Packers just don't look great but figure it out anyway because that's what they do. So I just wouldn't take too much out of that result either way unless something crazy happens.

Alright, another great divisional game. All these AFC West games are going to be awesome this year. The Raiders are going to the Chargers. The Chargers are laying three and a half as home favorites. Everyone's darling. Do you have a side in this one? Alright. Who'd you say was everyone's darling um do you have a side in this one all right who'd you say was everyone's darling the chargers everyone loves the chargers yeah the way i look at this game is is this matt where are the raiders better than the chargers like at what position are they better let's see probably nowhere maybe wide receiver right Hunter Renfro and Devonta Adams yes wide receiver

but not on the offensive line yeah I guess not on the defensive line maybe not a quarterback not at running back which again running back wide receiver to my opinion unimportant discussion not on the secondary not on the defensive line.

They're close on the defensive line. I mean, Crosby and Chandler Jones are elite, but the inside of the Chargers defensive line is better. They made some changes in the offseason. But, I mean, both some Cleo Mack, right? So they kind of wash out Crosby and Chandler Jones. I don't love three and a half. I think it actually gets to three because there's so much reverse line movement here.

Kind of going against the Sharps here. But to me, it's the Chargers, Matt, and minus three and a half. I see there's a far better team. I don't love the hook, and I'm going to try to stay away from Ben as much as possible this season. The hook, by the way, for those who are new,

is when it's a half point above the key number of seven or three, or even 10, really. So it's just... And the hook key number of seven or three or even 10, really. So it's just my, and the hook is referring typically to the favorite, right? So instead of being minus three, it's minus three and a half.

So that hook right there, that half point hook, it costs you a lot of money. It gets us all the time. It's there for a reason. It's there for this exact reason. Because most NFL games finish on three and seven. And so it's there for a reason,

right? It's there for the Raiders. You know, they're down 10 points. They come down the field and they score a touchdown with four seconds left and you lose the wager, right? That's why this is why the hook is there. But in this instance, Matt, I would feel fine taking it. It's not one of my favorites this week.

What do you think? I agree. I don't think there's a great edge either way. I think you can do better than this in week one on either side. I do think that it's possible that the Raiders come out and surprise everybody. They do, again, have another first-year head coach in this context, but obviously he's coached before in this division, and he's Josh McDaniels who knows how to prepare for games, you would think.

So I think this is maybe a half point too high for the Chargers. Yeah, three is much better, obviously. Because again, they don't really have a home field. But this is not getting a ton of bets. The money is all coming in on the Raiders, despite it being about 50-50 in terms of who's betting what. So that's a little bit of a red flag, but I just don't feel like we're going to get a really good advantage here. And I would probably be on the Raiders, I think. So this is probably a pass, which is okay, because we've got a bunch that we agree on. Yeah, I'm actually very curious what your thoughts are on this next game.

Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to be able to say what I actually think here. It's the Bucs, who are two-and-a-half-point road favorites. You can say whatever you want, but... It's their two-and-a-half-point road favorites in Dallas. They are getting 65% of the money, but it's not a big difference from tickets and money count. I don't know, Jeff. I've got an opinion here, and I'm not sure I like it,

but I do have an opinion. I would love to... You know what? You go first here, buddy. Just give me your opinion that you want to wager on Mike McCarthy in opening weekend. But make the – let me hear your case. Go ahead. Look, my case is – first of all, I hate this case because like the tampa tom brady and tampa are just easy money but has there ever been a weirder off season than what tampa's gone through like if you were to just take away all of what you know about gambling all of what you know about betting and just say what team that everyone likes is probably going to not play a perfect

game right out of the gate it's probably tampa right like tampa the tom brady situation who knows what the hell is going on there there's talks now that there's the celebrity sites are saying that giselle and tom might be getting divorced like something's going on in his personal life there's a new coach who may have gotten forced in because of some other problem brady had with arians like they have like mike evans has been hurt chris godwin might come back he might not and then meanwhile you look at dallas they played this game exact game last year and dallas almost won it in tampa if you remember it was it was week one and they came out super hot and Dak was coming off the injury and he played awesome and Dak generally

his his uh numbers against the spread in primetime are awesome he's always very good at home in primetime um and this is look the Bucks are heavily bet road favorite going against a good team in primetime at home who Dallas has been competitive with. So I just don't know. I don't really want to do it, but I do think that Dallas is definitely the right side in this. I just am not sure that I want to go against Tom Brady in week one despite all of that. I just don't know what the case is for the Bucs. Well, the case for the Bucs is the Cowboys offensive line is poop right now.

That's the case, right, is that Dak Prescott without Teron Smith has struggled in his career. And you add in the fact that now you have a rookie left tackle who's moving from left guard to left tackle, and you add in a left guard in who's not very good. So now you have a bad left side of your offensive line. You have – who is he throwing to in this game? Cee Lamb?

That's it, right? Like Gallup's not playing yet, right? Who's Brady throwing to? But I trust Brady in a situation. I trust Brady in a situation where he has less weapons than Dak Prescott. So I think for many reasons, it's a stay away game in the end.

um so i i think for many reasons it's a stay away game in the end um but i the cowboys are the right play here but i like tampa so i'm gonna stay away i think this is a stay away game for me well i mean you mentioned the offensive line like aren't you more worried about the bucks like they're down what two centers a guard because the cowboys defensive line is not as good as the... Well, that's true. As the... I'm worried about almost more than anything else, like is Tampa Bay's defensive line is maybe the best unit on this whole

field right now. And they're going to have their way with the Cowboys. I mean, Tampa might need to score just 24 points to cover the spread. I don't think Dallas is going to score very much in this game. There's going to be a lot of defensive regression for Dallas this season. They're not going to have as many turnovers. Like, there's reasons why I think it's just not going to go as well for Dallas this season,

but specifically in this game. But two and a half, I mean, it's climbing and it's going in the wrong direction, I think, for how we want to wager. I just think we have better options, but I feel like we're on two different sides here. I think we are. Hank pointed out a great, great stat. Dallas 7-0 against the spread in their last seven as a home dog. That obviously includes some of the Mike McCarthy era.

We are on different sides. I feel, I think, even more convinced in my reluctance, even though I am still reluctant, that Dallas is the right side here, but we're not going to agree on it, so let's pass it. reluctance but even though i am still reluctant uh that dallas is the right side here but this we're not going to agree on it so let's pass it yeah um so we just have this last one left i oh god i don't know jeff i don't really want to touch this one but it's denver at seattle denver is laying six and a half points on the road in the russell wilson revenge game this this to me is the ultimate stay away.

Like there's nothing about this number or situation that I like, but if you've got an opinion, go for it. I mean, my opinion is you take the Seattle plus six and a half and you just hold your nose and deal with it. Right now, according to Action Network, they have 11% of the tickets on them and 17% of the money. Everyone is on Denver now. It doesn't mean we're going to it i don't i don't want it but the play is is almost certainly seattle here who's again maybe one of the teams this year matt we're like they're getting 10 points at home against the niners we have to take

them like you know i mean like they're gonna be that team this year where they're just freaking awful but they're gonna get a ton of points at home and i think they're just freaking awful, but they're going to get a ton of points at home. And I think they're really bad this year. Like I'm, I'm staying away from this one, but like, I do think that Seattle would be the side if I was picking one. If you asked me to pick a game straight up here, it would be this one.

It would be mine too, Jeff. I am not doing it, but it's mainly like this again, rookie head coach who, you know, everyone just assumes is going to be awesome right out of the gate. This Broncos team that's, I think, incredibly overrated. Seattle, I don't think their crowd is going to be pissed.

I don't think they're going to be absolutely going at Russ the entire game. But it's week one. It's a Monday night football game in Seattle. They're going to be loud. They're going to make it as hard as possible the problem is the quarterback and we are not ever ever going to bet on on a game where we're going against Russell Wilson with Geno Smith that's just not happening I don't care what the number is but I do have a feeling that this is going to be the game that throws everybody off like It has it written all over it, whether it's just the Broncos win and don't cover, or the Seahawks win by a crazy field goal or something like that.

There's just something weird about this number, the fact that it's not a little bit higher, considering that every single person is betting the Broncos. This is what everyone's going to do this in their survivor pool. There's going to be one or two games that just massacre people this week, and this feels like one of them to me. I'm with you. Agreed. So what do we got? So we went through this whole

board. So we got Houston plus seven for sure, right? We got Carolina minus one and a half. We got Detroit minus plus four, right? Those are the three we like the best? Yeah, I think those are locks. Okay.

Then we also were maybes on Pittsburgh plus six and a half. Yeah, so I have the maybes. So, by the way, Joe Flacco has been announced as starter while we're talking. So, for the week one game against Baltimore. Ooh. Did that sway your thoughts on Baltimore minus seven? I kind of think Baltimore's going to be a wagon this year, buddy. It actually has dropped to six.

Ooh, wait, ooh. Nope, nope, sorry. Let's see what happens here. Because I think what will end up happening is... It did drop to six. I don't know, I mean, I think I assume Fl up happening is – I don't know. I think I assume Flacco would play. Yeah. For six and a half, I would really like Baltimore.

But I feel like it's not going to go there. I think it's going to go the other way. Carbos 10-4 gets a spread in week one. Dude, I think Baltimore's got to be a play here at seven. So what are we deciding? Houston, Carolina, Detroit. Houston, Carolina, Detroit. Houston, Carolina, Detroit. Then we've got two slots left for, I think, three contenders,

which is the Rams, Pittsburgh, and now Baltimore, right? Rams, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, yeah. Because Chicago, I wrote down Chicago plus seven, no. New England plus, what about New England plus three and a half? Oh, New England plus three and a half. Oh, let's put that back in the mix. Okay. But, man, that's tough. So basically we end up having New England plus three and a half. Oh, let's put that back in the mix. Okay. But, man, that's tough.

So basically we end up having New England plus three and a half, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the Rams. I would stay away from Thursday night. I just don't like to do Thursday night games. I think the Rams are the right side. But also, I'm also high on Buffalo. I'm kind of going against myself when I say Buffalo is the best team in the NFL, but also how are they going to lose week one to the Rams.

You know what I mean? I guess, but it's such a good spot. I mean, I'm with you. Plus, you can't – you really – it's hard to put Thursday night games in the Super Contest stuff. Yeah, but that's not a reason. We just got to pick our best five. I'm deciding that I'm not going to do that anymore. We're just going to find our five.

But if you're out, if you're not convinced, it's week one. We've got to be completely in lockstep. I'm not totally convinced right now. I'm not totally convinced. I just could see it happening where Buffalo just wins by two touchdowns. Okay. So we've got to cut from four. I just don't see it with Buffalo.

I just feel like everyone's so scared of basically have three we have baltimore pittsburgh new england baltimore pittsburgh new england so we're saying goodbye to the rams it's your show so i'm just gonna i'm i'm going to acknowledge that my ram stream is dead and now we've got pittsburgh baltimore and new england i mean do you really like you really like them that much i I mean, what is the reason that people aren't in on the Rams? Is it Stafford's elbow? Like, I feel like that's a season concern. It's not – like, if you heard nothing about his elbow, he's – what are they, a three-point favorite?

I mentioned this with Gabe yesterday. I think that – no, I think it has to do with the people are very high in Buffalo this year. And in Los Angeles, in their own community, there community there's no like hype on them at all but who cares i mean there wasn't last year either i know and and i think that's probably the reason why but i mean okay i'll consider the rams still one other thing about the rams is i honestly think if anything like they're healthier and better than the last time we saw them right like Allen Robinson should be an upgrade like their their entire defense is healthy like they should just the acres should be back after you know the the injury like

I just think that they're I think they're coming really underrated well hold on the Buffalo I just want to repeat this Buffalo is getting credit for losing to Kansas City in the playoffs last year. Like what? They added Von Miller and Jamison Crowder, and we're supposed to say that this is the best team in the NFL? I'm sorry. I just don't see it. But we don't have to.

We're split. So let's take it out of the mix. So we've got three teams for two spots. Pittsburgh plus six and a half, Baltimore minus spots pittsburgh plus six and a half baltimore minus seven or new england plus three i mean we have to like remember that we have to then watch these games and root for them so we have to watch the root for baltimore geez yeah i'm oh god baltimore length seven on the road in week one. Ugh.

I mean, would you rather take – like, would you feel comfortable with Baltimore laying seven, though, against Joe Flacco's Jets? I mean, that does seem like a little bit of a cakewalk. I mean, or do we take the most reliable underdog in the sport in Tomlin and Bill Belichick getting three and a half against Mike McDaniel? Like, that seems pretty good. I have a deep fear about what this Patriots team could be this year with Matt Patricia calling the offense all right let's we we we know Baltimore is going to be good right like can't you live with

Baltimore I just like wouldn't you wouldn't wouldn't be terrible if you're like they won 47 to 7 and we didn't wager on them? Which they might. They have no running backs. That's a little concerning. Who, Baltimore? Considering they can't throw. But, yeah. J.K. Dobbins, we all know.

Mike Davis. What's more likely to happen? New England covers that. What is New England? They win this game. They cover 17-14. Are they scoring 20? What are they scoring in this game what about that

stat of Belichick versus guys named Mike though I I agree I think let's let's go let's take Baltimore forget it it's Joe Flacco what are we talking about I can live with it and Pittsburgh yeah and Pittsburgh which I think is a good spot so we have houston plus seven baltimore minus seven pittsburgh plus six and a half carolina minus a point a half at detroit plus four oh boy what a spread what a spread today buddy love detroit i really like these i love them too i really like these man we like them every week but it doesn't mean that we end up winning all these wagers no we don't actually we actually don't like them most weeks we actually hate them most weeks this is a week where i'm looking at the nature of gambling

we're just it's just like you just you're always petrified non-stop that's true i will say if the one i feel least good about is joe flacco beating us by losing by less than seven against baltimore with lamar trying to renegotiate a contract this week. Like I kind of like her. That's my point, man. Like I think we could, we could do a four in one year.

I think, I think we're five and oh, buddy week one, five and oh, let's go, let's go print it very quickly. College football. Um,

I took a beating in the pack 12 this week. Uh, but I will go back to some things that I'm good at. Um, I would actually, it's a big back to some things that I'm good at. Actually, it's a big fade to Pac-12 week, in my opinion. Mississippi State on the road, minus 10.5 at Arizona. You take Air Force, minus 17, hosting Colorado. I would take Wisconsin, minus a 17, hosting Washington State.

Big fade to Pac-12 week. Sorry, guys. I would take – how about – Matt, I know you don't follow much college football alabama is a 21 point favorite on the road against texas i believe it's still 21 points it is 20 points right now huh what do you what do you that's a lot of points to lay with bam on the road but they're gonna win this game like 49 to 21 sorry hank i wouldn't do it, though. I mean, I saw that Texas got one AP vote for the top 25. So, I mean, I think this is like the high watermark in a program that did lose to Maryland twice in the last decade,

if for anyone keeping track. So, you know, scrappy underdog, Texas, but I don't love their chances. One non-PAC-12 game I like. I like Kentucky plus six on the road to Florida, kind of Florida coming off that little hangover beating Utah. Utah should have won that game. The post game win expectancy for Utah in that game was 66%. They should have won that game.

I think there's a little bit of too much love on Florida at the moment. Another game I like that I just wouldn't advise wagering on but Michigan's here by 51 over Hawaii. They're going to win that game by more than 51 points. I mean, I just I don't know if I'd wager minus 51. I mean, they're going to win that game by more than 51 points. I mean, I just I don't know if I'd wager

minus 51. I mean, they're going to win the game like 55 to 3. 63 to 10. Like, they're going to keep the shit out of Hawaii. The total is 67 and a half. So, like, they think this game's going to be like, what, 60 to 7.

Basically. It's so funny going from 59 to 8,, what, 60-7? Basically. Yeah, it's so funny going from... 59-8, I guess, basically. That's what it's going to be. It's so bizarre doing, like, switching your brain betting-wise where you're like, oh, like, there's a chance that, you know, that Ohio State's going to beat Arkansas State by 70. Like, that's possible this week.

It's just it's just so different like switching your way where you're like i don't know the worst team of all time the jets like might beat baltimore like it's possible it's the nfl is just so good compared to so much it is a much different is a much different you know mindset right you're like because in college you're like i remember this past week we were talking the pacto my pacto show about we do we wager on all the games every week and we should give our picks. And it was Colgate was getting 41

points at Stanford, okay? And I said, hold on. I go, guys, if Colgate scores one touchdown, they cover this game. And they did. They scored one touchdown. They covered. It was 41 to 10. You know, it's just like that's, it's wild., it's the wildest.

If Hawaii scores one touchdown, they might cover this game. Like, it's the weirdest thing in college football to say things like that. Like, yeah, look, I mean, like Stanford-USC this weekend, right? Stanford's getting nine points. And I'm in my head like, I don't know if they can score 35 points to cover this game because USC's scoring 45. It's such a different sport, man. I always think they're not even the same sport.

They're really not. They're just two different sports. They're not. Like, could you imagine laying 17 points at home? Like, I'm going to do with Wisconsin and Air Force this weekend. That's utter degen behavior. Isn't there a stat in the NFL where someone's a 17-point favorite

they never cover? It just doesn't happen. Never. Hawaii is one of those teams that is so tracked by the gambling community because they're the last game on every Saturday. Oh, yeah. Everyone has always been betting on Hawaii.

And I think now, just from an outsider's perspective, Jeff, I think you're getting a little bit of good value because everyone's hate betting against them because they burned, Hawaii's burned the people that have been betting on them for so long. Buddy, they're really bad. I mean, that's part of it too. I mean, I'll take the plus 51. What do you think?

You want to have a side bet, me and you? I'll take the minus 51. You get 51 points. I'm going to tease it up to 58, Jeff. Once you pass through the key number

of 57 and a half, you're really in good shape oh i'm in pain oh my chest hurts uh let me i'm looking up this action network our buddies uh have a um let's see here this is seventh game since 2015 2005 i should say where one fbs team opened at least a 50-point favorite. Of the previous six teams to open as a 50-point favorite, four were Nick Saban teams. Since 2000, Hawaii has never closed more than a 44-point underdog in every game.

They covered the other times they were big underdogs, though. I just, I'm just, do you have any trends about um teams from hawaii that are plus 51 or more on the road in week two because i think the trends are about to rocket in my direction i do not um i do i'm looking at some games now like there were 44 point underdogs against usc they covered that game in 2012 42 points against ohio state they covered that game in 2012. 42 points against Ohio State. They covered that game. 38 against TCU. They've covered, take it back, Michigan in 2016,

they lost 63-3. So they haven't covered one big spread. All right, I got minus 51. You got plus 51. Good luck. Good luck, Matt. Well, we've got three. We've got the Bucs and we've got the,

what was the other one that we just – oh, and the Rams. We'll see who does best in those three bets. We will. We'll see who does best in those. Guys, enjoy football tonight. It's back in big fashion with the NFL. Cultural Balls in a week, too.

Hope we start off on the right foot with our five wagers. We, again, one more time, we have Houston plus seven, Baltimore minus seven, Pitt plus six and a half on the road, Carolina, the Bank of Maine field revenge game, minus a point and a half, and Detroit plus four hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. Have a great weekend, everyone. Please rate, review, subscribe. Hope you guys enjoyed this episode.

We'll be back next week covering all things NFL and college football. And then again, Matt and I will do our show later in week two to get you set for the rest of the season. Take care, everyone. Have a great weekend. you