Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 10

Episode Date: November 10, 2022

Geoff is back with Matt to give you the five best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season. The boys are coming off their first undefeated week of the year-- but they aren't done yet! Tune in for predictions on every game from this weeks slate, plus a few juicy season props you can set and forget.Please leave a rating and a comment (shout out to David) if you enjoyed the pod, and tweet @geoffschwartz or @mmford10 to tell them what you think of their picks!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday november 10th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz smart new powered by the varsity podcast network it is our weekend wagering preview and guess what guys we are heating up a little bit because the season gets long four oh and one last week we are now at 24 19 and. This is better than we've ever started. Normally, we finish very strong. Matt, I feel like we're kind of getting the groove of what these teams are. And one thing that we're not doing so much this year, which I do like, is we're kind of throwing trends out.

Like, we're not betting on trends anymore. We're betting on what we see. We're betting on lines, where the money's going. So, guys, we're winning. Also want to add at the end of this show, you get my Pac-12 plays, 24 and 16 on those. Those are heating up as well. Now over 70% career in those Pac-12 plays. But you're here for most of the NFL, Matt.

We're here for NFL. Buddy, good week for us, man. Undefeated. Our first undefeated week of the year. Hopefully not our last. Definitely not our last. And, I mean, we got lucky on a few hooks, and then we got screwed on a push just on the,

whatever the last game of the week was, the Tampa game. So, yeah, feeling good about that. Before we get started, we've mentioned from the beginning, we did this at the beginning of the season. We did our season-long prop bets. we had a little bit of budget left over, last week we took Kenneth Walker, maybe it was two weeks ago, we took Kenneth Walker at 2-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, so I have two ideas for some of our money that remains the first is, the big talking point this week is that

Tyreek Hill is going to end up with the most receiving yards of all time. Yes. It seems very possible. Currently, you can get him at Offensive Player of the Year for plus $350. Oh. And I get the argument. It's like always, you know, a quarterback's always going to have the advantage. No, not that award.

Not that award. Put that, not that award. Not that award. That's the award that they give to like Derrick Henry and they give to running backs and receivers. How much is that at? Plus $350. And I feel like that's not that award. Exactly. That's the award that they give. There's like Derrick Henry and they give to running backs and receivers. How much is that at? Plus three 50. And I feel like that's going to change. Like,

yeah, I would. Yes. It's going to change. So we have $300 left. You want to put a hundred on that? Sure. It works for me.

Let's do a hundred on that. Can I entice you as we're talking about future bets, $200 left now. Um, I said, do you see the one I sent you yesterday? Is it off from an offshore? Colts to finish fourth place in the AFC South

at plus 1,200. Huh. Wow. They have two wins right now. They're currently going to Vegas this weekend with Jeff Saturday as their head coach and someone named, excuse me, they have three wins right now. Someone named

Parks Frazier as their offensive play, as their offensive play caller. He was basically Dwight Schrute. He was like the assistant to the quarterback coach. All right. Like the Colts, I mean, I guess you have to kind of wait to draw the Texans in this spot to surpass them. But man, plus 1200, I don't want to spend our last $200 on that, but that seems juicy. So does, by the way, Dolphins to win the AFC East.

I was going to pitch that to you. Good, because the Josh Allen elbow thing is real. So Josh Allen has an elbow injury. It's a UCL. That's commonly known as a Tommy John ligament, right? The Tommy John surgery, the UCL on your elbow. And he's dead today. That means they wake up in the morning and think,

and his arm is like, ah, they think like, ah, Josh Allen's thing, it's like, ah, I think it feels better today. We'll give it a go, right? That's what this means. And the problem with this injury is if you've ever followed baseball, very rarely do guys rest it and they're fine afterwards. Like Shohei Otani is the rare guy who rested his elbow. He just hit for a year.

Still a valuable player. Then came back and became a pitcher, right? Again, most guys don't do that. They rest and then eventually blow their elbow out and have to get surgery. I'm not saying Josh Allen is going to do that. Football is different. The football throw is different than a baseball throw. So it's different stress on your elbow.

I'm not at all saying that he's going to blow his elbow out. But I do think this is a real thing, Matt. Like if we're hearing day-to-day, maybe he probably doesn't. They're not winning this division if he doesn't play. And the Dolphins are still, I got them yesterday. I bet this at plus 490, somewhere around there. I put a hundred bucks on that.

I just think that if Allen at all can't go for even three weeks, like if he's out for a month, if he's out this weekend, they play the Vikings who are six and seven and one right now. I'm okay with putting a hundred dollars

on the plus, what is it, 490 right now for Dolphins to win the division. I could not agree more. And frankly, I mean, the odds you're getting are, call it 5-1. Like, is that crazy? The Dolphins, like, let's just say Allen, everything breaks well for Allen, and, like, he's unaffected.

I think it's still a pretty good bet. Like, they're a half game behind the Dolphins with the tiebreaker over Buffalo and they still play again so it's not a ridiculous bet to make just in terms of the number like I get it Buffalo's the juggernaut it's unlikely if Allen's fine but he's not and you said it it's like they've look at what happened with Matthew Stafford this year who's had this like mysterious like they call it you know like a thrower's elbow like that's that could be anything a lot of people think that it could be a UCL injury. That guy has looked, you know, not great at all this year. So if you were to say that you're getting 75% of Josh Allen and the dolphins with possibly the best offense in football, who haven't lost a game with their

starting quarterback at five to one, like it, I feel like I felt like I was missing something when I was reading that. And so I'm glad that you brought it up because I was going to come in and make a case to you, but you made it for me. I love it. I'm good with putting a hundred bucks on that. And we have a hundred dollars left over to spend somewhere. Um, our, our wages are so up and down this year, Matt, I feel like we're going to battle to break even on the props, which we made a lot of money last year, but still a lot, still a lot up in the air a lot of um you know we kind of we kind of hit the sweet spot though for some of our totals like the guys we want over burrow and mahomes are doing over things guys we want under are pretty much under especially on on those uh but we were wrong about tyreek hill

man we had him under seven and a half touchdowns. He hasn't scored as many touchdowns as like, I think his stats would tell you. Like, you know, he has 1,000 yards. 1,000 yards. Only three touchdowns. So that's actually still alive. We have under seven and a half. Wow.

That's interesting. I feel like what we could do is like some of them might cash kind of early or we might say like, you know, I don't have them in front of me. Well, we've cashed a couple of them. But if you have cash, we could rein is like some of them might cash kind of early or we might say like you know i don't have them well we've cashed a couple of them but if if you have cash we could reinvest them we could say that we have more than 100 left we've cashed trey lance under trey lance oh my god yeah we've cashed trey lance under and i think we've probably now cashed tannahill under i mean i guess under somehow just just go ahead and make that happen. Did we play any Matt Ryan stuff? No, but we did play – we wanted to play a Mariota under passing yards, but we never actually, like – I don't think we actually did it

because we couldn't find a number. Right. So we have those that we have hit so far. Those are the two I see, like, we're still going to have that we've hit. Yeah, a few of them are off the board. Yep. Yeah. But a lot of these, man, these NFC East ones were tough.

Matt Stafford's number this year, we took under 4,500 passing yards. Wow. He can't even be close to that, right? No, I can't imagine he is. We took Mahomes and Burrow over passing yards, and they look like they're on track for that. He's less than 2,000 yards so far this year, so he didn't get to that number.

All right, well, you want to get into games this week as we debate some of these totals here? Let's do it. Again, we're recording this Wednesday, so injury stuff is kind of sparse. We're going to have to get on some of this. let's do that so where did i leave off all right thursday night game uh falcons at panthers can't imagine we're taking a side here but the line is uh falcons by three in carolina uh man i um i will look at the the under here so it's supposed

to we have this this tropical storm, hurricane thing coming through Thursday night into Friday. And so it's probably not going to have a ton of rain, but it's going to rain and it's going to be windy. And I think that's a spot to take the under in this game. Obviously, both teams have the ability to score at times. But Carolina came back to earth last weekend. Is Baker starting this week?

Do we even know who's starting this weekend? It's going to be PJ. It's going to be PJ again probably, yeah. In Atlanta, they covered Forrest last weekend barely. I'm kind of like done with them. We've been on this roller coaster with Atlanta now, and they got kind of lucky to cover last weekend as well. I'm sort of out on the Falcons as far as wagering on them.

So I would say just nothing to this game. I mean, all the money is going to be in Atlanta too. This is a Sunday game. I think we would take Carolina plus three, but I can't put this in our first spot here. Yeah, I think I agree. Under 16 of the last 22 on Thursday Night Football, so that's a pretty good bet.

Carolina somehow, I mean, I don't know. We took them at over 6.5, and I feel like if Baker were to come back in, we might actually, if they win this game, that is alive somehow, even though they're terrible. Our NFC South wagers are not going to do great. Yeah.

They might actually end up in 0-4. Yeah. Baker comeback player of the year. Not looking great. Alright, let's move to the Sunday games. If you had to pick a side there, taking Carolina? If I had to pick a side, I'd take the Panthers plus three.

Yeah, I think same. Okay. Going to Germany at 6.30 a 6 30 AM Pacific time on Sunday. Ooh, boy. Um, the Seahawks and the bucks neutral field game. We're seeing two and a half or three at the moments. Oh boy.

I don't, I don't get this line. Um, there's no home field advantage for Tampa, right? They're playing in Germany. Why is Seattle getting three points? Yeah, and weirdly, there's like a pretty good German contingent for Seattle.

A few other folks have made this point this week. Have you heard this one? I have not heard this one, no. Since like I think in the 2013 Super Bowl year, there was some connection back to Germany, and there's like apparently apparently a pretty good contingent of German Seahawks fans. Wow.

And also, every year we talk about Hank was making fun of how predictable I am. This is one that our old producer Nick used to bring up all the time. I look a lot into travel and those kinds of trends sometimes because it is sort of helpful sometimes to see, especially with Seattle. They're the team that always travels the most like how they do

pete carroll notoriously is like always really good going west to east yes so with this long trip you'd think like maybe he'd get he'd be able to handle it better i don't know um but i don't know man this doesn't it feel like at some point the seattle thing's gonna gonna run out like i i just i this one this is sort of like last week with the Cardinals thing, but we ended up getting that one right. But don't you just feel like something is off here? I feel like Vegas is trying to tell us something. Yes, but okay.

Seattle is a real contender. Like they're legit. They're a game and a half up in the West. They're offensively 7th in DVOA, 12th on defense. They're getting better each week on defense. And last weekend when Gino threw that weird interception, the one to Zayven Collins, I think it was, the linebacker, I thought to myself, like, oh, crap. Here we go.

Like, here's the downfall of the Cardinals. Excuse me, the Cardinals, the Seahawks. And what'd they do? They just kicked thefall of the Cardinals. Excuse me, the Cardinals, the Seahawks. And what'd they do? They just kicked the ass of the Cardinals the rest of the game. They spotted them seven points and won by 10 on the road against the Cardinals. Tampa Bay, Matt, the problem is they can't score. Like, I understand their defense is good, and I'm not doubting their defense is good. They played well this season for the most part.

Obviously, the Chiefs tore them up, and the Ravens kind of got after them kind of as the game got longer, right? But Tampa Bay, here's how much they've scored. Chiefs game was a month ago. Since that Chiefs game, they've scored 21, 18, 21, 22, and 16 points. They can't score, man. Like, I'll take the team that can score plus the three points. Yeah.

I, yeah, I guess so. I mean, I don't really have a better argument here. So I wrote about this for Fox Sports this weekend, and I did a stock up, stock down thing every Sunday night. And I gave Tom Brady the stock up. And my reasoning was like, well, maybe this sparks him. But I can make the case that the Rams also just blew it on defense. If Tampa loses 9-6, which it would have been, right?

9-6? I think so. Yeah, right. Something like that, yeah. What is this? What's this line? It's probably, I think it's like still Tampa favorite. I feel like this is just a fade of Seattle.

Like, I feel like it's probably like one or pick. I just think Seattle's actually good, Matt. Like, I think they're, like, I know the Geno Smith thing. I think people, and I'm with you, like, it's going to fall apart at some point. And it certainly can. But offensive points per drive, they're sixth in the NFL. Defensive points per drive, they're 22nd, so not as good. Tampa Bay right now, offensive points per drive, 25th.

They can't score. Like this game might be 13-10, but Seattle wins this game. Yeah. I mean, the other thing is like Geno's been very good against the Blitz. Like that's what Todd Bowles is probably going to do. That's probably going to be like how they decide to play here. And it's just going to be the same formula of like they're going to run. Tampa's D against the run this year has not been great.

It's been actually pretty bad and surprisingly so and they're probably just going to go deep and just run the ball over and over with walker like the formula should theoretically work i don't know why i'm scared of this this just feels like it feels like seattle is just like an auto play every week it feels too easy i get it it does but it's really it's it's really not and like if. If you take pretty much any metric, it's like Seattle's just better. Agreed. I don't know. What are we getting?

We're getting three here? Three, yeah. I think this should advance. Let's at least put it in the maybes. Okay. I like that. You made a good case. This is a public play.

We should say that even though it doesn't really matter to us. Like about two-thirds of the bets are on Seattle and then about 70% of the money is on Tampa. So we would be going against the professionals. But sometimes the professionals are wrong. So like last week when a lot of professionals liked Arizona. So, all right, moving on to our next game that is back in the U.S., Jacksonville at Kansas City.

Chiefs laying 9.5. Let's see if there's any movement there. You can only take Jacksonville if you're playing this one, I think. That's the correct take, but we're not playing this one, so we can just kind of move this right along. Yeah, the only way you take this is Jacksonville plus a 9, but I kind of go back to the trustworthy factor here, right? Like they just, yeah, they came back against the Raiders, but so does everyone.

I just need to see a more complete kind of game from them to really feel comfortable about taking them kind of in this spot. So I just would stay away from this game right now. Because if the Chiefs want to play their best game, they'll beat this team by three touchdowns. But the Chiefs at times, again, they just feel very up and down this season. I actually think, I mean, this isn't based on football analysis at all as much as it is just like Mahomes as a big favorite, just traditionally just has not been good like

mahomes against the spread record at home in his career he's actually under 500 which shocked me it's 34 and 9 straight up 20 22 and 1 against the spread as at home he's unbelievable as a small favorite 17 5 and 1 against the spread this is all thanks to our friend Evan at Action Network. Over 3.5, he's 27-31-1. He's under 500 as a favorite of 3.5 or more. This is probably a game that's going to go under just based on the trends of these 10-point spreads. We've seen that this season. I think it's like 70% of the time the under is hitting with these 10-ish point spreads um

they're calling the total 50 it's like okay so if this is a 45 point total like are the chiefs gonna win you know 30 to 30 to 10 like i i don't know i i feel like the only problem with this argument is just jacksonville is so unreliable right and the chiefs like you know the chiefs i the chiefs pulled that game out of their asses last week. They could be trying to sort of make a statement this week. And, you know, Jacksonville on the road with Trevor Lawrence has just been a disaster. So if you have to pick this game, like, I think you pretty clearly have to take Jacksonville. Absolutely.

But we just don't love to be on the other side of Mahomes. Yes. That's the way to look at this game. If we're like. If we need a fifth, I think this should make the list, but I have a feeling we're probably not going to need it. Yeah, we'll find it. I'll put in the maybes, sure. Yeah, all right. Okay, moving on to Texans-Giants.

Yikes. Despite the Giants being good, I still have no interest in this game. The Giants are only like four and a half off a bye at home against the team with only one win. And this open, by the way, is six or seven, and people bet this down, obviously. So, yeah, to me, this is just a straight stay away, 100%.

Just don't even watch this game. It's going to be ugly. You can't bet on the Texans here. The Giants have really never been good at covering at MetLife Stadium. So I would stay far away from this. Yeah, I would too. I kind of like the Giants at this number, but I think it's sort of like the Seattle thing.

It's like everyone's overcompensating for how weirdly good the Giants have been. But this is a pass for us. Let's save some time all right moving on to what is definitely the game of the week and it's going to be something to watch for the rest of the season we already mentioned that josh allen's bills are hosting the vikings uh the line we are seeing right now i just want to double check because this has moved a lot obviously three and a half or four um This shifted a bunch with this elbow news, but it seems like Josh Allen,

right. As of now, they're saying he's going to play. What do you think? The line is what? Three and a half, three, three,

open it near seven, seven and a half. Yeah. I don't think I was going to play. So this is the hard part about this game, right? Like if Allen's going to play, you would take Buffalo minus the three,

right? Like in a heart, three and a half in a heartbeat, I think. But if he doesn't play, you would take Buffalo minus the three, right? Like in a heart, three and a half in a heartbeat, I think. But if he doesn't play, you're taking the other side, but you've all, but now you've lost three, three and a half points of value by taking Minnesota now. Like to me, Matt, unless you have a different opinion, it's a stay away. Like that's how I would do it. If Josh Allen, they announced Sunday morning, he's playing and I can get Buffalo at three

or even by the half point to get to three I'm all over that all over it if they announce he is playing the line shoots back up I'll take the Vikings with points but right now I feel like you can't take this game right now look the Vikings have just not really been many good teams this year I just don't know what they are, man. I don't know what this team is. They are 18th in total DVOA. I don't think they're that good, but without Alan Stadis, I can't do anything on this one.

You mentioned we don't know what the Vikings are. You're right, but they're also 7-1. They're not a trash team, and to be getting the four, I think I would have probably liked the Vikings at 7 seven and one, like they're not, they're not a trash team. And to be getting the four, like, I don't,

I think I would have probably have liked the Vikings at seven or seven and a half. And to say like, but when we say like, Oh, well we don't know if Josh Allen's going to play. Like if he's playing, he's probably not Josh Allen. Right.

Like the fact that on Wednesday at, you know, almost four o'clock Eastern, we're saying, we don't know if he's going to be playing means he's not like, he's not himself. He's, and by the way, like Buffalo, isn't going to come out of this game and be like, this is a must win. This isn't the AFC championship.

Like they're not going to run him into the ground or like try to blow their season for this. Like if he's not, if he's not feeling it, like he's coming out. If they're down by 10 like is he gonna keep playing i i have no idea so i kind of feel like with the uncertain this isn't the jaguars this is the vikings like they're a pretty good team like i get that it's cousins outside and you know cold weather probably i haven't looked at the forecast but like i don't know don't we don't we like the uncertainty i feel like this? I feel like we missed the number, but we're still getting a pretty decent one.

Do you think the Vikings plus four? Vikings plus four. I feel like it should make the list, don't you? I mean, I certainly don't mind putting it as a maybe. Remember, if you like a wager, I'm not going to say no. We've talked about this. We're going to do this together. We like each other's wagers.

We're going to play them. So I put it in the maybes yeah i wrote it down i mean again not my favorite but if you feel strongly about it i'm not gonna say no because again we're not gonna lose each other's favorite wagers every week this isn't my favorite wager but it it's i do feel like that's a pretty it's a tasty number we'll get to my favorite in a bit okay um i think it's worth considering all right moving on to let's see where we are lions at bears oh my oh uh up to three now for chicago i know that this is a public play but i can't like in what world would anyone take the lions in this none of them like what is this life hey oh wait hank just got a reference to the wizard of oz i would would have never understood i never

never thought he would understand that in all the comment i made good for you buddy i uh he just put i missed it what was it i i said i said uh you know lions tigers and bears oh my so i said i said lions i said did i just not hear it teasing? No, I don't think you heard it. Okay. But Hank got it. I'm like, I'm stunned. Like, Hank doesn't get any references. Yeah.

Enough about Hank. Let's talk about Justin Fields. What do you think? So, the Bears have done some good things. They have decided we're going to run an offense that fits our quarterback and our offensive line. And they've done really good at that he threw for like 120 yards and rushed for 178 last weekend um the Lions defense I know they played well against the broken Packers but they are still

very very bad and the Bears are playing with with confidence now that they haven't had um and i know they didn't win last weekend but three three points is not the best line i would definitely i would leave chicago here um but absolutely your defense is bad though i yeah. So like this game maybe turns into a shootout, but let's remember that the Lions defense is absolutely worse. I just like the Lions, the Lions don't stop anyone. And last week, Rogers just

gave that game away. Like good for the Lions. But I mean, you know, Romeo Dobbs is out like, okay, does that really matter? Like I think the Aaron Jones thing like Aaron Jones is another we don't exactly know what his status is he is other than Rodgers the most important player on that offense no disrespect to Bakhtiari but he hasn't exactly been himself so I don't know that's the that's a concern for Green Bay but I think for

for the Bears, the Bears are putting up 30 points a week. They have a really difficult offense to prepare for and also to stop. I feel like the Lions are getting a Campbell, Aaron Glenn clip in the locker room, and everyone thinks the Lions are back. They're going outside with Jared Goff. Jared Goff on the road is like, what is he? He's like 110-1 against the spread in his career. That's actually a good point on Jared Goff there. If you're just taking a straight Jared Goff fate here, that might be the way to go. He is 0-10-1 straight up on the road in his last 11 starts

average loss of 13 points but you know it's another thing where i'm like i'm scared about betting the the seahawks who have shown a lot more than the bears have yet i'm saying like oh but the bears along with 80 of the public um yeah this is the most this is the strangest split because let me just pull this back up here the bears are getting 83 of the bets 91 of the money and the line's not really moving it's between two and a half or three but if we can get this to two and a half i feel like it should at least make the conversation yeah but can we get it two and a half right now or not? We can at least one book that I can see. One New Jersey book.

There you go. That I think is defaulted to. Okay. It's only plus 100, minus three. All right, let's end the conversation. We've got a few maybes already. Okay, Saints at Steelers. Steelers off the bye.

Plus three at home. My God. To Andy Dalton. What do you think? Pittsburgh, right? Yeah. I mean, yeah. Like, are we kidding?

Like, what is this? It's not even a question, right? What is this? Did I miss something about the Saints? Like, why does everyone love the Saints so much? It doesn not even a question, right? What is this? Did I miss something about the Saints? Why does everyone love the Saints so much? It doesn't make sense to me. Nothing they do really impresses you at all, right? No.

Yeah. I mean, this is a riveting conversation. I'll just say that Mike Tomlin is— I just don't know what else to say because I'm in agreement with you here that Pittsburgh is the playoff to buy and that the Steelers just don't do anything great. They're off the buy. And Hank predicted before the show that I would talk about his record off the buy. He's 14-6 straight up off the buy, 9-11 against the spread.

But what is more important is a reminder. Mike Tomlin is the best in NFL history as a home underdog. He's 16-3-3 against the spread as a home underdog. What are we afraid of here? If anything, you get another week of getting some guys healthy. You get another week of this offense without Chase Claypool. Maybe that actually unlocks Deontay Johnson and George Pickens. We also might see Najee Harris get benched.

There's a lot of Jalen Waddell. or Jalen, what's the guy's name? The backup running back. I said Jalen Waddell. Maybe Hank can hit me in the chat. Jalen Warren, I think. But that might unlock the offense. So I don't know. I just feel like this is a great spot to take Pittsburgh.

Dude, I'm totally with you. Andy Dolan, Hank wants to talk about this. Andy Dolan's steady put there. You know what, Hank wants to talk about this Andy Dolan study. You know what, Hank? Good job for getting this done on time. Congratulations. Thank you. Since the beginning of the 2018 regular season,

Andy Dolan has been a road favorite five times. Against Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Brandon Allen. I imagine, is that Washington? Brian Fitzpatrick. Kyle Allen and Brian Fitzpatrick. He's on 25 teams. Brandon Allen would be on which team? Denver? Carolina?

Kyle Allen? Who knows? These are not household names. The point is that Andy Dalton doesn't deserve to be a road favorite against anyone. It's like outside again again like in the middle of in the middle of november and in pittsburgh like i think this i i don't get this i don't know why anyone would pass on this one i'm i agree all right well that one was that one was definitely as soon as i saw that one i knew that i would have to make that case um this one i'm really

curious what you think about so speaking of off the by by, the Browns are going to Miami. Miami is like three and a half. It's the biggest sharp play of the week. All the sharps are on the Browns, plus the three and a half that's actually moved, despite the Dolphins being one of the most popular teams right now. Do you have a feel here, or what do you think? Why the Browns? I don't get it. I don't get it. I don't understand it. I mean, I don't know if I want to take the Dolphins here.

We've kind of avoided doing kind of the minus three and a half thing, right? Yep. But the Browns, why? Just to be contrarian in this spot, fading the Dolphins? I don't really – I guess the Browns on offense have a good DVOA, but do they have Jacoby Brissett? Yeah. Miami's defense –

Yeah, dude, I don't get it. Miami's defense is a problem though. Right. Yeah. I don't know. I agree it's a stay away. I just was curious like why everyone's on the Browns this week. If you're on the Browns, I think you probably missed the number, to be honest.

I guess maybe you have a chance to get a 3.5 still by the time you're hearing this, but if it's Dolphins by 3, I feel like it comes back the other way. Probably. I feel like this is probably not a wager then, right? If we can't figure out what side we're on. Yeah, it's a pass. Something's off here. Maybe we'll look stupid in a week. Who knows? That wouldn't be the first time. Okay, the Broncos off the bye, going to Tennessee. I assume Ryan Tannehill's playing. The line is Titans by two and a half. I mean, do you have a side here? Yeah, I would take Tennessee in a heartbeat,

but I just don't know if Ryan Tannehill's playing, right? Because if Malik Wells is playing, they can't move the ball. But Denver won't move the ball in Tennessee. It's going to be a low-scoring slobber knocker of a game. But Denver's defense is so good. This is a straight under game for me. I can't wager on this now without knowing the status of Tennessee's quarterback. I'd really be curious to see how Tennessee has done in the past

after playing the Chiefs because they seem to have whatever the defensive secret is to slowing that team down. Kansas City barely beat Malik Willis at home last week, took him, took him five quarters. But I wonder usually when you have like a real showing out like that the following week, especially after a loss,

you don't always show up. Fable is such a good coach that that might not be the case. It's just a guess. I don't know. I mean, Denver is like, no, one's going to want to take Denver. They're dogs with either a compromised Danahill on the road.

They have a very good run defense, very good defense in general. In theory, I kind of like Denver, but not enough to make any passion case for it. Actually, I think Tennessee is, the way they're built, they don't have those emotional down weeks because they're so built through physicality in the trenches that you really don't have, like when you're kind of like a softer-ish team, yeah, I think you have those ups and downs.

But when you're built to pound the other team at, I don't think you have ups and downs. I would have no problem. If it was Ryan Tannehill, I would be all over the Titans in this spot. But I think Denver's defense is really, really good. And, you know, maybe Russell Wilson has figured something out. And, you know, the offense kind of gets going enough. I mean, if the Broncos score like 20 points, Tennessee is, you know,

I don't think it's scored. Yeah. Yeah, that's a concern. This is a pass. I have a feeling in like a few days I'm going to have a really strong opinion on this one way or the other. But for now, not a strong enough opinion. But lean Denver for me. Okay, Colts Raiders.

Jeff Saturday is the coach. This line has moved a ton. It's now up to five and a half for the Raiders who can't seem to not trip over their own feet. It would be extremely Raidersy to lose this game somehow, but I can't imagine that we have a side in this, do we? Okay. If I just told you, I just told you, all right, a team is playing a backup quarterback with a bad offensive line on the road. They just fired their coach. They hired an ESPN analyst. And their offensive play caller is the assistant to the assistant.

And you'd be like, yeah, how about we take the other team? The problem is the other team is the Raiders. Are we sure that Jeff Saturday is not a better coach than Josh McDaniels? Okay, so. Like, are we positive? The Raiders are a dumpster fire. When Frank Wright was fired, this line was Vegas minus six. It has not moved.

Was it really? What? Yeah, when he was fired, it was Vegas minus six. It was according to Action Network. Monday afternoon, it was Vegas minus six. What? Yeah. At least according to their odds movement.

It was Vegas minus six. So, it hasn't moved at all since the announcement of Jeff Saturday. That has shocked me, dude. It's absolutely shocked. Yeah, if you go to view line movement, so you go to, he was fired what on the 7th, right?

So yeah, the 7th at 11.36 a.m. It was plus six and a half. So it hasn't moved at all.36am. It was plus 6.5. So it hasn't moved at all. It hasn't moved down? Yeah, basically, yeah. Because we were recording the podcast at 3pm Eastern and it had broken at about 2 o'clock.

Yeah, it was plus 6 on the 7th at 3pm. Wow. That is so disrespectful to the Raiders. It hasn't moved at all i'd be fine taking oakland here or with vegas whatever but they're so bad i think we passed on this one but i mean come on like really like yeah i mean the colts aren't trying to win this game correct right like this they did not make that decision for this year They made it for him to basically hold the fort, I would imagine, until they hire a person who's coached before.

There's a five and a half out there at FanDuel. I would entertain a five and a half 100%. The problem is that Vegas is just trash. Every time I watch them, I just get so disappointed that i ever considered wagering on them but at home with all this confusion over the week like not only did you mention the assistant to the assistant calling the plays like i'm pretty sure they made that decision what last night like today yesterday like it's not like they had this like all sketched out and they just like had somebody in there ready to go it's like they have to figure out like who's

talking on the headset like all that stuff like can actually like can you sort of like explain how long it might take someone who's never done this like step in there about this day i was driving home from lunch i had great lunch with sam schwartstein who former stanford offensive lineman dude funny funny funny story sam put a photo out and i joked on my twitter about how the person sitting next to us is going to know a lot about running the ball in third and medium. And a guy who was actually there tweeted me. He was like, yeah, I was sitting there, you guys. I heard some story about some safety being run over against Washington State.

I was like, yeah, we were talking about that. It was Rob Gronkowski running over a safety. So, yeah, I totally lost my train of thought. What were we talking about now we were talking about the coaching transition okay how long am i so i'm coming back from lunch you can cut that out hank come back from lunch and i'm driving and i was thinking about the colts and some of these lines as we're kind of preparing for this i think myself like does jeff start even know how to use the walkie talkie the headset like does he know what buttons

to press to talk to the OC, the DC, the analytics department, which I guess is probably shot to the moon now with Ursae's comment. Is he going to make all decisions on fourth down by himself? Who's calling on the punt team? Who's making adjustments? No. I don't know.

Right. What playbook are they using? Like who, how fast does he learn it? Like all of this stuff is just so insane to me. Like I, you, you tweeted, I think, was it the day he was fired? You were like, what are his game day responsibilities going to be? Like, there's so much to figure out for a guy who was a high school coach, never an assistant coach in the NFL, right? Like there's so much to figure out.

I just can't wrap my head around how this game could even really be close, which is why I'm surprised that there's not been like a huge line move. Like, I don't know. I'm open to the five and a half. I think just based on this conversation, it's hard to imagine this game being close. I'm with you. Agreed.

Put a maybes. It's not like the players hated Frank Reich either.'m with you. Agreed. Put a maybes. It's not like the players hated Frank Reich either. If anything, it'd go the other way. Okay. Okay. So, moving on to the other games on the late window. Cowboys at Packers. Man, Packers plus five.

We're just moving. This game stinks to high heavens, buddy. This game is freaking awful. Packers getting five points at home against the cowboys like how do you not take green bay here explain it like how do you not because they're really bad that's why they've lost five straight like yeah like they're this is not just gonna keep going keep saying that we're going that they're going to be better like Like, oh yeah, they'll get it going. When?

When? This weekend against a really good Dallas defense? This is the weekend all of a sudden that we're getting it going? Now, by no means do I think Dallas minus four and a half is a great wager, Matt. And I would not put that in this grouping. But the Packers, I think we have to admit kind of stink man like Aaron Rodgers under through multiple passes this past weekend like

easy touchdown passes he under through that's what he's done all season this is who he is now this is who this offense is and to me I think we just have to say they stink right now. They absolutely stink. I think it's a pretty good case. You know, Rodgers owns the Cowboys three straight. He's seven and two against them in his career. He's home. This is the biggest line against him in several years. Let me see here.

This is the first time in 121 home games at Lambeau he'll be above a field goal underdog. I mean, that is absolutely shocking. We're talking about the falling apart of an all-time great here. If you're picking this, you have to take Green Bay plus 5,000%. But I agree. I'm not going to go die on a vine for this but this one is like this one I just saw and was like all right well you can't really like think about this too hard you just have to take Green Bay and live with it I generally agree with that idea but I think it's however I think we can acknowledge it they just stink yeah all right fair enough uh cardinals at rams the other late window game we kind of get more late window games man this is

killing me uh the rams are like three for some reason to the cardinals that's how much everyone hates the cardinals um i i can't imagine we're taking a side on this, are we? Matt Stafford entered the concussion protocol during this podcast. Really? Yes. Interesting. It's now moved. Wow, we're actually watching this move in real time. It's now Rams minus one and a half.

Yeah. That just happened. But we said plus three to start, so. Well, I don't think we would have taken this anyway, right? Absolutely not. The almost fired Cliff Kingsbury-led Cardinals against the Rams, who just absolutely stank on offense. Yeah, and McVay absolutely owns the Cardinals, too.

This is like talking about a get-right spot. Late-season Kingsbury versus Sean McVay, who's 11-1 against the Cardinals in this is his this is like talk about a get right spot late season Kingsbury versus Sean McVay um who's 11 and 1 against the Cardinals in his career so I you know you would think that the Rams if this is where they're ever going to get it right it'd be here but with this this is certainly a pass good flag um I don't know stay tuned for that one um all right we're moving to the primetime games sunday night chargers at 49ers the 49ers are seven point favorites to the chargers i chargers plus seven right yeah what are we doing what are we doing here What are we doing here? Why like, is everyone so out on the chargers that at this point they're getting seven points against Sanford's like,

what are we talking about here? I felt like this line was absolutely insane. Remember that if you're one, if you want to bet on the 49ers, you don't want to take them as big home favorites. That's where Kyle Shanahan splits in his five, five year coaching career with the 49ers he's been terrible he's the fourth worst coach since he's been in the nfl against the spread

as a favorite that's unbelievable considering how much love he gets uh jimmy garoppolo oh and three against the spread on sunday night football and he's covered three straight as a home favorite which only brings his record to 9 12 and 1 in his his career. He was 6-12-1 coming into this season. So if anything, he's due for a regression back to where he was. I think this is like, I know Keenan Allen's probably not going to play. Mike Williams isn't going to play. But Josh Palmer was pretty good. Gerald Everett was pretty good. And at some point, these starters, they're not going to be terrible forever. They're a pretty good team. They pulled a game out of their asses last week. I don't know know i just feel like

i feel like they're definitely not seven points worse than the 49ers no and what jimmy g and kyle shannon are terrible as uh favorites right yeah that's what that's what i'm saying yeah like shannon had fourth worst uh in the league in his time uh as a favorite um yeah i who made the chargers are worrisome. I just do something like... Plus seven, though. Like, what are we talking about? I know, I know.

I'm with you. Oh, man. All right. Not a fan of this. Well... What don't you like about this? Just that the Chargers are so shaky and they don't have... They're just not well coached.

Their offensive line against this defensive line bothers me. They just have been shaky this year. Their coaching is just bad, but I think your point is, and seven points is a lot in this game. It's a lot. The Chargers have Justin Herbert still. We're acting like they have no one, right? And Jimmy G.

I mean, at any point, herbert could throw you back into this game like that's that's you know we've seen this with the one of the reasons that for this shanahan against the spread record is like they'll be favored by 10 and they'll end up winning the game by seven but it's because they don't shanahan doesn't know how to just sit on the ball and run out the clock like he never does that it's always like oh it's second down and four let's throw it and it's like in triple coverage because it's grapple oh and it you know then they like give up a backdoor cover like i just think you're playing a good team getting seven here like with everyone's so hot on san francisco since the mcafree thing and it's like all right i'm i'm willing to chance it i'm good with it we don't

have that many so i'm fine with it all right let's put it through i think this is i this was this was my favorite of the week so if this is the one i have to die on the hill for i will um not my favorite game of the week and not a game i look forward to watching at all the commanders those commandantes are going to philly philly 10 and a half5 point home favorites in prime time. I can't imagine taking Washington. Are we off the commanders now? We got our covers. We're moving off of them?

They're this side. The answer is yes. We're not on them this week. I just don't – I mean, Philadelphia does blow teams out. They're Buffalo. They just – they absolutely are good at icing the game away. Heineke might keep it close. But we saw this last year when Heineke went to Buffalo, actually,

and just got absolutely blown out. And we've seen it with Heineke before where he can, when they go down by 14, like, there's sort of no way back. Oh, yeah. He's definitely not in, like, he's not that quarterback against the Eagles to do that. Yeah. Philly, yeah. He's definitely not in – like he's not that quarterback against the Eagles to do that. Yeah. Philly, yeah.

And Philly just absolutely wiped the floor with him in the beginning of the season. So this was a pass for me immediately. Yeah, I'm way on this one. All right. So we have Seattle plus three, Pittsburgh plus three, and L.A. plus seven is our three in the book so far. The other four we had as options.

Ready? Okay. Minnesota plus four, Buffalo. Chicago hosting the Lions, minus two and a half. Raiders minus five and a half hosting the Colts, and Green Bay plus five. Did we mention the Jags in there? Yeah, I just tend to

try to stay away from games I root for, root on. Who knows? It's not a bad wager. I mean, I think, sorry, so we had Seattle, the Steelers, the Chargers, and what was the fourth team? We only have three.

Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles Chargers. Okay. I mean, Chicago's the big public play. the fourth team we only have we only have you mean finally three yeah seattle pittsburgh and los angeles chargers okay i mean chicago's the big public play that kind of makes me a little scared um i mean we could just we could just lay out with vegas and and just get murdered by josh mcdaniel somehow it wouldn't be i mean again like are we is is a is a, is a team coached by an interim ESPN personality? I like Jeff Saturday. He's doing the best he can. Yeah, I feel that for him. Going to play in a game against a real NFL coach.

He talks about you not being a real NFL coach, but a real NFL coach. NFL coach. You're not a real NFL coach, but a real NFL coach. And lose a game by less than five points? It would not be a great argument for the Bill Belichicks of the world if you don't need any training and you can just

come in and win a game or keep it close. So that's the case for that. The case for Chicago is the Lions can't stop anyone and Chicago puts up 40 points a game now. And then the case for Green Bay is just like it's a hold your nose, just take your chances. And then the Minnesota case is just the uncertainty with Allen and you've got a good team.

If the Josh Allen injury isn't with Allen and you've got a good team. If the Josh Allen injury isn't as bad as we project, then that game is probably not as close. I don't know. What do you think? I'm fine with Vegas in here, honestly. Like, it just seems – I don't trust them. But, again, like, the Colts are in a bad spot, man. Like, they're basically a laughingstock right now.

The Colts haven't – they're 0-9 in the first half against the spread this year. That's a good Action Network nugget there. So they come out. They probably start slow. Plus they start even slower with this first-time head coach who doesn't know how to do anything. That could get kind of ugly. First-time play caller.

A bad offensive line. Let's put him in. That's fine. If we lose that one, I'm done forever on McDaniels. But if we lose that one, we're basically saying that we lost a game where a first-time head coach went on the road and lost by four points, basically, or less. That's what we're saying.

Let's take the chance. Okay, so they're in. So now for our final spot, since the Jags are out, I mean, it's gotta be, it's gotta be the best team left here, Minnesota,

right? Plus the four, but we don't know if Alan's playing. So you're just, you're out on green Bay, right? Like, let's just remove that.

You really like it. Don't you? No, it's no, I don't. I hate, I hate the Packers. They're terrible,

but like, I just don't, I don't think they're losing six in a row i just well you think you're losing last week either that's true that's true uh i don't worry green bay's out uh minnesota or chicago minnesota plus four in buffalo or chicago like two and a half against let's let's fade jared goff dude like what are we what are we afraid of afraid of being square or squares like we admit it fine done done chicago it is i like this five this is a this is a hard fought five but we got there seattle plus three i like pittsburgh plus like? LA plus 7. Okay. Vegas and Chicago

ought to ever be in our favor. But there's not better choices this week. So, whoo buddy. Alright, well those are our five. Plus our prop bets. We got our Miami to win the AFCs plus 350 and Tyreek plus 500. And did we have one more in there?

No. That was it. We still have some money. Didn't you bring one to the table? The Colts. To win a fish. Oh, the Colts. Yeah, we passed on that.

Pac-12, 24-16. Utah minus 24 on the road. Excuse me. Utah minus 24 hosting Stanford. USC first half Friday night minus 21 against Colorado. I got Oregon over 41 and a half points I think that's jumped a little bit now but like they're going to score at will against Washington those are the ones I have for now all of UCLA how about this UCLA over 48 and a half points

hosting Arizona so that's a lot of points but Arizona has allowed the last five losses they've had, Matt. How about this in the college football? They've allowed 49, 49, 49, 45, 45. So, yeah, a lot of points. Lions-ish. Lions-ish. All right, guys. Please rate, review, subscribe. The last rating, by the way,

the comment is unbelievably great. For those who haven't seen it yet, Matt, Hank, you guys will enjoy it. What is it? It says uh here ready it says uh where's that basically like gabe's shop about tom brady i wrote it it was for me uh is it from common dante's fan 69? No. The only negative is one of the co-hosts has a major fetish with Tom Brady. Well, I thought I was going to say it for him. The use of the word fetish there. Thank you, Pine Surfer.

I told you, we read them. We will put them on air if they're good. That's really good. What's the username on that one? I don't know. Let's um hank groberg 55 david walker the fourth david walker the fourth man i'll tell you what i know we definitely don't do politics on this show but there was money to be made yesterday and my offshores did not offer it and me and you made a killing in 2020 and like ah ah, I was upset last night. I was like, I was ready to just hammer those plus lines

like we did in 2020, Matt. I think it was a good lesson watching the political media, which we follow, right? But we're not as close to. And then seeing it in this, in football media, where it's like people are just so sure that something's going to happen. And everyone tells each other this is going to happen, this is going to happen. And it's like, you kind of have to, you just talk yourself into it,

because that's what all the smart people are saying. And then it's eggs. And there's always money to be made on the other side of what the conventional wisdom is. If you just sometimes just like use your eyes and just say like, do I think that's going to happen? And I know that's sort of like crossing a lot of different scenarios, but I think it's sort of the same thing. And with, you know, that's that's sort of my case for Buffalo this week. And this Miami bet is like, are we sure? Like, are we sure Josh Allen's just going to be fine? Like, are we sure Josh Allen's just going to be fine? Like, are we sure? Yeah. I mean, once the predictors started moving in the other direction, I was like, right.

I mean, it dropped up 5% about, I don't know, 7, 8 o'clock last night. I was looking for lines I could find in the heartbeat, dude. I couldn't find anything. All I could find was 2024 presidential stuff. I think live betting is is the way to make money in this whole racket that's the thing with live betting though is that you have to be watching the game like I was watching the shows I was watching like the vote counting I was paying attention to it which is what happened in 2020 me and you talked about this

I don't know if on this podcast like when Biden was down early on election night in 2020, all you had to do was listen. It was like, votes have to be counted in all these different states. And he was like, plus 800. I was like, done. Plus 600, done. Plus 400, done. Plus 200, done.

Even money, done. And just pay attention. And with sports, same thing, right? Like you cannot lie better if you're not watching the game, in my opinion. You just can't do it. If you're watching the game, college football, I think, right? Like, you cannot lie bad if you're not watching the game, in my opinion. You just can't do it. Oh, yeah. 100%. If you're watching the game, college football, I think, is easier than the NFL. It's like, if you're watching Michigan Rutgers, you'd be like, come on.

Like, Michigan's going to, you know, like, NFL's tougher. I think with NFL, like, for example, Buffalo against New York. Like, those games in college don't happen as often, where, like, the 11-point favorite just kind of stinks on the road. And so I think a lot of people would hammer Buffalo and they end up losing. In college, you hammer that favorite who's down early and you're going to end up with money, right? So, but you have to watch the game and you have to watch it. You have to watch to do politics and you have to watch live to do live bet, I think.

That's just my advice on the wagering part of this it's a good call and you also have to just admit when you got it wrong yeah like i think that was the other part of it for some of those politics players it was like no like this is gonna happen it's gonna happen um my example of that was with live betting was last year in the playoffs when buffalo played new england and i liked i think i i think we maybe took New England, actually. But I remember thinking that Buffalo came out and they were up 20-0 or whatever in the first two seconds. And I was like, all right, well,

Bill Belichick's not going to lose a playoff game by 30, right? Okay, well, he's not going to lose by 35, right? And I just kept live betting based on the idea that it's Bill Belichick. They're not going to just fall apart. They ended up losing by like 150. Yeah. And there are times where you just have to take your L and just say, you know what? It's not going to happen. That's one thing I've changed in my gambling

career is I just don't chase anymore. You can't chase. If you put the work in, which I hope comes through on this show that we do the work and we put research in. And if you lose, you lose. It it just happens it's part of the thing like we might have a bad week but i'm not gonna chase and so that's and it's hard to do it's hard to do but also too last thing if you only wager the amount of money you're willing to lose then if you lose it you don't feel a need to chase the problem is is when you bet too much and you're down too much and you need to chase

to get the money back, you should only wager what you can afford to lose. That's the rule. And not what you want to win or can afford to win, what you can afford to lose. So that's my gambling 101 today with Matt and Jeff. All right, guys. Power of the Varsity Podcast Network. By the way, Matt, before we go, how worried are you about this attorney,

U.S. attorney press conference for the commanders tomorrow? Why would I be worried? What if they just disband the whole team? Your team's gone. That would be so liberating, Jeff. That would be news. As long as they don't force us to trade Chase Young or force us to put in Carson Wentz,

it can only be good news. Anything that forces Dan Snyder out is welcome news. Oh, fantastic. All right, guys. Talk to you on Tuesday. Have a great weekend, everybody.