Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 11

Episode Date: November 17, 2022

Geoff is back with Matt to give e you the five best bets for week 11 of the NFL season. There are a LOT of lines the boys like this week-- including Geoff's favorite play of the season to date-- so be sure to tune in. Plenty of money to be made on the Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You!As always, leave a rating or a comment to show what you thought of the pod, or tweet @geoffschwartz or @mmford10 to thank them for their picks. Happy gambling!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, November 17th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz to SmartU, powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. It's our weekend wagering preview. We go through all the NFL games. We try to give you guys winners. We were only 2-3 last week, but we're 26-22-2 on the year. So we're moving in the right direction, folks.

We have some winners on the board. We'll talk about some props and some futures and everything else in the very end. I'll give you my Pac-12 plays of the week. I'm in New York City right now. Matt, it is cold. I'm glad I'm getting out of New York before any sort of weird weather happens. We have a weather game this weekend in Buffalo, a lake effect snow

game. So plenty to talk about. How was your wagering weekend? Wagering weekend. We treaded water. There's nothing wrong with two and three. You know, they can all be uh they can't all be strikes sometimes you got to hit the gutters and when you hit the two and three that's not too bad we live to see another day we're still a plus four for the season um but i don't know man los comandantes had a pretty nice little monday night so i was flying pretty high i like tyler heinicineke is 10-9 as a starter now. Yeah.

He's just the perfect amount. If he was more physically gifted as a player, I think he'd be one of those guys you're like, wow, I can't believe we got him undrafted free agent. But he's just not like – he's never going to be elite, I don't think. But he's just good enough to have fun if Carson Wentz is out, right? Yeah. It's a good story. People like him um he plays his ass off he battles i don't think they win that game i think we saw some of the eagles issues in that game as well we'll

talk about the eagles and whatnot but yeah commanders man the nfc east how about the nfc east it's unbelievable it's crazy and i would note too like heineke's played like the teams he's played in those 19 games like he's played rogers twice he's played like the teams he's played in those 19 games like he's played rogers twice he's played tom brady he's played mahomes he's played at the eight and one vikings the eight and one eagles like he's he's gone through the gauntlet he's more than proved himself and if they put wentz back in there oh man i'm gonna be really sad along with you're gonna be done with the team you're already done with no No, I think if I've lasted this long, I'm pretty much locked in. You're locked in.

What do you think? You played for Rivera. What do you think he does here? I love Rivera. Oh, no, you do not go back to Carson Wentz. I do not care what it is. If you go back and have a revolt, man, your team can play with Tyler Heineke.

You have a chance. You have a skill position. You get the ball into the hands of Terry McLaurin and Samuel and give it to Robinson and give it to Gibson, like, you have dudes that can get, if you get the ball in space, they can do work. And, you know, we talk a lot about the defense and kind of how emotional it is on this podcast.

And when your offense is playing well, right, as Washington is now, can I notice how the defense is just better now? Like they're fired up emotionally, and I think they're able to play better because they trust the offense to also do their job as well. And so the whole team is better now. You have the Giants twice coming up as well. I mean, you have a chance, I think, to maybe backdoor your way

into the playoffs here. Yeah, they have to beat Houston this week. It's like if they can beat Houston, they're 6-5, and they have a weird schedule thing where they go Giants by Giants, and that's such an advantage to play a team twice with a bye in the middle. So we'll see. We'll definitely get to the Eagles and our thoughts on them. You ready to get into the Week 11 slate here?

So our record, yes, I was right. We're four games plus, right? Yes. 26-22-2. Pretty good. Pretty good. Let's open that up this week. Great game tonight if you're listening on Thursday. Titans Packers. Packers favored

by three off of a big win. I'm a little tempted here, but I have a feeling we're going to end up passing, but I'm curious what you think. Oh, I'm curious on what side you're tempted at here well are we just like are the Packers just good like we're just not concerned anymore because the Packers won one game against Dallas who by the way last week I was like they're gonna win this game against Dallas we didn't bet them but they they know they do they own Dallas isn't the answer here to Tennessee plus three I would think.

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. We're just like, we're not worried about Green Bay anymore because Christian Watson had one good game. Like, are we sure? Tennessee, and we're always off of them, and all they do is just kick everyone's ass and, like, physically beat up on people. My issue continues to be, oh, they can't score.

Like, they have to win games 17-14 and 20-17 and 17-13. And it's really hard to back a team on the road in that manner. Like, what if the Packers, what if a defensive back slips and falls and you allow a touchdown? And now you've allowed 21 points if you're the Titans. Can you score? I mean, can you score enough to keep up? I mean, look, everyone knows what you're doing on offense.

There's no surprise that you want to run the ball with Derrick Henry, but you have to be able to add in a little bit of a pass game to deter teams from stacking up. Right now, Tennessee's pass game, their DVOA is, where is it at here? It's at 17. It feels like they're much worse. They're not an efficient passing attack. And they should be able to

run the ball on the Packers if they want. But I I'm just not certain that they can score enough in this game. It's not real slight to Tennessee. They're great on defense, man. They beat you up. And I really think they're going to give the Packers a lot of trouble. A lot of trouble scoring this game. I don't know if

they can keep up, though, even in a low-scoring game. Green Bay last week gave up 160 rushing yards. They averaged 140 yards against. They're number 26 in the league in rushing yards per game. The Thursday thing is also just an element of chaos. I find that we usually pass on those games, but if we're hurting for a fifth, I'm interested in Tennessee. Oh, I'm with you. Okay, first maybe. Okay, first game on Sunday. We've mentioned the Eagles already. They are road favorites against

Jeff Saturday's Colts. I know you talked about him on Monday, so we don't need to retread that one. But basically, what do we think? The Colts legit here. They're plus seven. Do we think that they're in a good spot here after the Eagles had their first loss? I do not think the Colts are in a good spot here. It's actually six and a half. They opened at ten. The Colts are better a good spot here. It's actually 6.5. They opened at 10. The Colts are better with Matt Ryan, of course,

but they just beat the Raiders. I don't know how much you could put into them being the Raiders. You have a really competent coaching staff in Philly who should be able to out-coach the Colts. We saw, too, that Monday night was Philly's first game that they really got out outcoached this season. And I just don't think it's going to happen again.

Seven points is a lot, though, right? I mean, the Eagles have not been the best covering team this year, even though they're 8-1. But we're not laying the points with the Eagles either on the road. I don't like the Colts. Do you like the Colts in this spot? I don't. No, I don't.

I figure that this is a sit this one out because in my opinion because like it's possible and this this reminded me when the commanders beat the steelers a few years ago and they were undefeated and then all of a sudden they kind of fell apart i don't think that'll happen with the eagles here but they got exposed like and there's nobody who's probably like a better fit to figure out how to exploit that front four for the eagles than jonathan taylor who's probably got some fresh legs look great last week you know maybe jeff saturday is just making things simpler and it's like hey just hand the ball off and you know don't do anything crazy i also think like this this is the thing that i couldn't ever really

articulate about buffalo coming into the season that I think might be true of Philly. It's like you don't want to be – Baltimore was like this too a few years ago. There's no team you'd rather face than like the Eagles when they're up by 10. They're unstoppable. But there's something about it when it's like a tight game or same with Buffalo and Josh Allen. Like weird stuff happens when the games are closed. So I feel like I need another week out of both of these teams before I wager. What's funny is it,

what's funny is like the chiefs, the opposite, like they're better when they're down. Yeah, exactly. Right. Yeah. There are certain teams that just,

yeah, they start slow and then they come in hot. Like there are just, I don't know. There's something about these, these teams that worry me when they go downhill and then all of a sudden it's like, Oh wait, everything's not falling into place. Does anything change?

I'm with you. I'm with you. But I don't think this game will be close. I don't think we'll have to worry about that in this matchup. Can you imagine if Jeff Saturday wins two games? Oh, my God. It would be crazy, right? It's almost like so insane that I feel like it might happen.

Probably because the NFL has been wonky lately. It's been so bizarre. We'll get to the next game? Sure. I can't imagine we have a feel here. Rams-Saints. Saints laying four after the Cooper Cup news. Dude, the Rams are dead, buddy.

Like, they are – this is a completely square play at four. At two and a half and three might have been different. The Rams are dead, buddy. They are dead in the water. They have nothing to play for. They are just... I'm going to pull up their... Obviously,

Stafford probably will play this game. So last weekend, kind of take with a grain of salt. But we've talked about their inability to score this year, right? They can't score. And now they lose their best player on their team and Cooper cup. Okay. So they lost, they scored now last weekend, 17 points, whatever.

Okay. 13 points, 14 points, 24 points, 10 points, nine, 12, 20, 31 in week one and 10, excuse me, 31 a week, two and 10 a week one. They can't score, man. Like the Saints can win this game 17-10. Yeah. I didn't really consider this, but I don't know why. The Saints are, this is actually like

the sharpest play of the week or one of the two sharpest plays of the week. It's one of the least bet games. No one trusts the Saints. Saints are good at home. Stolen starting again, by the week. It's one of the least bet games. No one trusts the Saints. Saints are good at home. Stolen starting again, by the way. I would consider this. It's gross, but it's like

how do the Rams win? It's really gross. Stafford is an amazing game, throwing to Robinson. Okay, take our chances. I bet this line gets to six by kickoff, though. It's going to be hit hard, especially if Stafford doesn't play again this weekend. I like to say it's minus four.

I see it's not actually that square of a play according to the money, but the Rams are just dead, man. Their season is over. The Saints are still playing for something. They're still in division hunt. They're still playing for something, and the Rams are playing for nothing. I'm convinced. I'm in.

Great pitch. I did not expect us to have this in, but it absolutely makes sense. Yeah, I mean, is there a more costly injury outside of quarterback in this whole league than Cup for the Rams? Like, they were already bad, and they were taking him out of the mix. Forget it. Yeah. All right, public team du jour, the Bears versus the old public team, the Falcons.

The Falcons are like three or three and a half. I'll say something nice about this game, and then we can just move along. So the Bears have done a great job, and they should be applauded for designing an offense that fits their quarterback. You think that's a silly thing to say because every offense should do that, but a lot lot to happen, the Bears said, look, we're going to ditch the old offense. We're going to run a Justin Fields-centric offense. We're going to get him confident in this offense. And then as you get him confident in this offense, you branch off and you add different things for him to do, right? So that's what they're doing here.

They're just not good. Like, their defense is terrible. They can keep trying to score points, sure. They didn't cover last weekend. We picked them. Jared Goff, out of all teams, went in there and won with the Lions. They didn't cover. So, and the Falcons are not – we're not picking the Falcons as a home favorite either.

So, I think this is a stay-away game. You know, the Falcons started hot. They just take. Like, they're just way down. Calling for Desmond Ritter to play. This is a stay away to me, Matt. I mean, I think the over is in play here, certainly, if you're looking at a – you have to have a wager in this game.

But that's it. Yeah. If anything, I would probably lean Falcons here, which is crazy. But it's not – I'm not making that case at all. The only thing I want to point out, it just feels like the Bears like if you were to guess like it's like oh yeah the bears have they've been good lately like they've had they've been on kind of a hot streak in their last seven games they've won one they're one and six they're not winning games they're keeping some close and they've actually had like a really difficult schedule um when you look at these teams that

they've played they went in this losing streak. They beat the Texans, then they lost to the Giants, the Vikings, the Commanders, they beat the Patriots, lost to Dallas, lost to Miami, and lost to Detroit. Pretty difficult run there. But they're not winning games, so I don't necessarily love them to go on the road. And at some point, this field thing is going to regress

to something that's somewhat sustainable. The aforementioned commanders are road favorites in Houston. Houston is plus 3, 3.5. The play would be the Texans here, but I do not think that I can get behind that. It would absolutely be the play. Have we gotten one Texas game right this year besides week one the texans are definitely the worst team in the league and i like i decided i didn't i forgot that they were playing this week but i at some point in the last week or two i remember thinking i

cannot bet the texans unless they're playing a bad team because they can't compete with the 25th best team in the league like i think they can compete with one or two teams. Them versus the Rams would be a pretty interesting game at this point. But I just don't think that they can hang with anybody. This is the play here, especially the 3.5. But I don't know. Especially if Heineke's trying to preserve his job for another week like i don't i don't know if i see washington just i just you're in a short week

getting all the national attention on the road like if anything this is like a texans first half money line bet right yeah not not to me it's not enough points for a full game wager on them in any game ever like i to me i just i think if you're getting over touchdown you take them but it's just it's three and a half i think if you're getting over touchdown you take them but it's just it's three and a half i think we're out on this one i can't do it yeah and it's not like the perception of the the wind changed it that much like this was a two and a half point line it moved to three three and a half like it's not like it went to six um yeah so i'm fine to pass it but you know i'm sure i'm emotionally invested a little bit i the smart play is definitely houston

i do have a feeling here i'm curious if you share it the jets are at the patriots I'm sure I'm emotionally invested a little bit. The smart play is definitely Houston. I do have a feeling here. I'm curious if you share it. The Jets are at the Patriots. Second time these two teams have played this year. The Patriots are three-point favorites at home. What do you think? Ooh, I'm curious.

What do you like? Well, I want to check something here before I make this case. Nope, no weather. There will be no weather at this game is what I was looking up. Okay. But I think it's got to be the Patriots. Yes! Correct, it's the Patriots.

13 wins in a row against the Jets. They're off the bye. I just think, and great note from producer Hank here, the Jets. Jets off a bye also. Jets off a bye. They're 0-6 since 2015 straight up. That's pretty remarkable. And the Patriots haven't lost to the Jets in forever. So I feel like this is probably a Patriots reset the market on the

Patriots and Jets become the Jets kind of moment. I think the question becomes which team do trust to be more complete after the bye. The Patriots team, who is much better on defense, and they're third in DVOA on defense. They're a good defensive team. The Jets are sixth on defense. It's a defensive battle.

So you turn to the offense. Right now we have a better offensive line in New England. We have a better quarterback in New England. This feels like, as you mentioned, kind of like a get-right game for the Patriots, knowing they have to beat the Jets, by the way, to kind of keep up in the division even, but just for even a wildcard berth. Plus all the love on the Jets, right? We're loving up on the Jets, doing what they have to do. To me, I'm in on New England here. I'm all for taking them in this spot at three points.

Me too. Sharps love it. I feel very good about this one, especially if we get three. And remember, guys, when you do New England stuff, the trend stuff you kind of have to throw out with Belichick and Brady. But Belichick is dominating the Jets without Brady too. That's important to note here. Yeah, and he just always wants to just dominate that team um all right that's great we got another one in there

um okay lions at giants um the giants are laying three a team that just despite their records can't ever seem to get the respect of vegas uh i'm curious if you have a side oh man huh I think it's the Giants Daniel Jones has completed two passes over 20 yards this season like over 20 air yards this season they're just not throwing the ball the Lions just I don't know I think they're not really good are they

like there's three points for Giants team I think they're just much better than the Lions right now yeah the Giants offensively are pretty rough, but offensively, I said defensively, the Giants are their DVOA is, this is the thing with the Giants, man. They're not

a DVOA team. They're not, they're 7-2, right? Am I correct? Yep. Their estimated wins are 4 right now. Easy schedule. The Lions and Giants are on top

of each other. 19 and 20 in their DVOAs. They're almost identical. Offense 13 and 15 or 15 and 13. Giants defense 24 and 26. Feels like a stay away game man. I don't like it really. I coming into this,

I really liked the giants and was going to make a case for them. The sharps are all over the lions. I mean, I just think at some point, the giants there are going to have the thing that happened to Atlanta where everyone was like, this is the team, this is the team.

And then the bottom is going to fall out and they're going to knock, they're going to stop covering games, but the giants feel like they just cover every single week. They keep winning games. When you talk about the matchup here, the Lions have the 31st rush defense in the league versus Saquon Barkley who's leading the league in rushing. It's pretty clear how this is going to go for the Giants.

They're going to hand it off a million times. They're going to try to get the turnovers on defense. They're going to play Jared Goff outside on the road for the second straight week. I think that's the right play of the Giants. I think that is too. Yes, you're right. All the analytics say the teams are pretty even, but what if we just threw that out for a second and we were like, wait, a 7-2 team is at home playing three points against a team that just barely beat the Bears

and everyone's like, the Lions, they're back. And the Lions are going back on the road. And golf has been awful on the road traditionally at least. And Detroit, every time you trust them, they fall apart. I have a feeling the Giants might be able to take care of

business here. I'm good with the Giants here too because looking at the rest of the games there are not, in my opinion, ones that I love love. If you like the Giants a lot here, this feels like a good place to put them. Let's put it in the maybes. I'm curious to see how it stacks up with the rest of them. Okay. One that I

let's see if I'm looking at two different things. The Panthers are going to the Ravens. Yeah. Baker Mayfield. You can't take the Panthers here, but it does feel like this is a Panthers, going to the Ravens. Yeah. Baker Mayfield. You can't take the Panthers here, but it does feel like this is a Panthers. But, you know, Baker comes back and they lose by 10. I guess, but Baker kind of stunk. Like, we basically had a bunch of wagers on him to be good this year,

and he has basically given us two middle fingers as much as possible. Yeah. This is for his career, possibly, right? Like, Darnold's coming back around. It certainly is for his career. But I think the Ravens are kind of, like, quietly lurking, right? Like, there's a lot of talk in the AFC about the Dolphins and

the Chiefs and the Bills, obviously, for many reasons. The Titans, like, the Ravens are just kind of 6-3. They had a bye last week. They're just kind of lurking there, Matt, like, to make this run right now. And it might start with just blowing out the pants. They used to blow out bad teams.

That used to be the thing that they did was blow out bad teams. Haven't done it so much this season. They've been up a bunch in games and haven't covered. I'm not taking the Ravens, but I'm not taking the Panthers either, I don't think. No, this is a great teaser game. To tease the Ravens down to 5 and a half or six and a half. Oh, agreed. Very intriguing.

Let me think about who we can do that with. Now, here's an interesting candidate here. The next game is the weather game you mentioned. The Browns are going to Orchard Park to play the Bills. The Bills are laying eight to eight and.5 at the time of this recording, although it's down to 7.5 on the spot. What do you think? It's a big number, doesn't it?

It sure does. It doesn't feel like a big number for the way the Bills are playing right now. A note about weather games, everybody. Important note, okay? Do not rush to bet the under, all right? What matters most is the wind, and the wind is going to be bad. So if that's the way you want to look at this game,

then bet the under for that direction. Remember, a lot of snow games go over. But the caveat here, Matt, is that most snow games open in the 30s. This is like open in like 43, and quickly went down to 41 today. So there's still some time to take the over, the under, if you would like.

That's how I play this game. I wouldn't touch the Browns right now. The run defense is so bad. Bursette is kind of maxed out. I think about what he can do in this offense and the bills. They're up 27, 10. Like they should have beat the Vikings.

They didn't should be the, they need a kind of a get right game. And I'm not sure it's this week, but it feels like it could be against the Browns this weekend. Yeah. I mean the case for, if this is a, if it's a bad weather game,

you know, you're, you're imagining it's a lot on the grounds. Like this does feel like the Nick Chubb explodes game. When he was kind of kept in check last week, you know, and Buffalo, like Buffalo,

their best running back is their quarterback. Singletary has actually been pretty good this year, but if this is a, like it's freezing cold wind snow, you kind of like the Browns situationally, right? I, I can't.

Oh, absolutely. But I do not think that's one of my five favorite for the week. Interesting. Is it one of yours? No, I just kind of assumed that we would have some sort of – that this would at least make it to the next round just based on the amount of points.

But it also is not the week to go against Buffalo. They just had a nightmare and they're going to want to and they're playing in the late window. The weather, they're going to want to take care of the early window. They will want to take care of business here. Let's move to the AFC West. This is in the late window. The Broncos are home for the hapless Raiders. The Broncos are linked two and a half. Matt, you're not going to like it. Don't you dare say we're taking

the Raiders. No, we're taking the Broncos. Alright, I'm fine with that. Yeah. The Raiders are... I'm talking about the Rams guys. The Raiders are in a bad way right now. Report came out today, can't fire McDaniel because they have no money to pay him the rest of his contract and they fire him.

You have your quarterback going on a press conference. Again, the crying part, people focus so much on the emotion part of it. Did you hear what he said, what Derek Carr said? We don't have guys that are bought in. It's week 10. It's week 10. Week 11. You don't have guys that are bought in?

Yep. Like, come on. They are a bad football team with a bad culture. They sat three defensive players for non-football reasons, essentially. They are a bad football team with a bad culture. They sat three defensive players for non-football reasons, essentially. Now, I get it. The Broncos' offense is very bad. Russell Wilson's not playing well, but their defense is really freaking good.

And they have to win this game by three. 10-7 we cover, Matt. Like, 14-10 we cover. The Raiders aren't going to score points. That's kind of my. We don't... The Raiders aren't going to score points. That's kind of my point in this one, right? Like, the Raiders aren't going to score in this game. And the Broncos can just do enough against a bad Raiders. Matt Ryan led Colts at 26 points.

Yep. I like this one. Even though this is Derek Carr's best opponent, he's covered nine of the last ten against Denver. Won five straight. Yeah. I don't think that matters. I don't think that matters either. Denver is better than people think.

That stat that came out earlier this week, if Denver were putting up, I think, 18 points a game, they'd be like 8-1 or something like that. Their defense, you mentioned, is very good. I mean, the home crowd, I think the Broncos are going to end up sort of mattering when it comes down to it. At the end of the year, they just have too much talent. They had another just brutal loss last week that they could have pulled that one out.

And we're never out of it when you bet against the Raiders because they keep giving up these big leads. Correct. I think this one makes sense. I feel like we have a lot of games we like this week. Yeah, but we have a couple we've already given strong yeses to. And I think the next one on the board is I could not be more happy to wager on this game. Yeah, we could save everyone some time here. The Bengals are at the Steelers.

The Bengals are four-point favorites, four-and-a-half-point favorites at Caesars. So you want to do it or should I? You should do it. One, two, three. Steelers! Let's go. This is like the easiest pick of the week. It's the easiest pick of the week.

What is this line? The Steelers are getting four points at home with a no Jamar Chase Bengals and TJ Watt back. We talk about this every week. TJ Watt being back changes the entire team. In Tomlin, you can read the stats if you want, is the best home dog coach of all time. Yep, that's right.

Literally all day. Four and a half? And he owns the AFC North as a home dog. He's never lost in seven tries, two pushes. Better late in the season. Again, the TJ Watt thing, it's like they you know it's as seismic as cooper cup right like it's he's probably possibly the best defensive player in the whole league yeah he might be the he might be the most important player for a team who's not a quarterback

yeah he really might be and remember these teams played in week one and like tj watt i you know essentially won that game himself uh that was in cincinnati i don't expect i don't expect there to be like no turnovers, like five turnovers again. But Jamar Chase not being there changes what this offense can do. And this is a great number. Four and a half is...

Let me just make sure four and a half is still out there. I don't think I see a four and a half. So we can take a four. But that's a great number. By the way, money line, right? This is one that you just throw a great number by the way money line right like this is one that you just you throw a few few bucks on the money line in this one yeah this is like this isn't this is like a sharp square game too like this is right where we want to be yeah so you said four okay yeah let's say it's four all right all right my new coming into this that we were

only going to need to pick four games um it's funny, Jeff. I actually like the rest of these. There's wages you like on these? Yeah, on all three. Well, maybe not one of them. All right. Cowboys and Vikings is the next one. This has been very interesting to watch all week because the Cowboys opened this favorites and it's actually the Vikings have gotten some buyback and now in some spots it's 1-1.5. Who knows where this will land? Let's say it's Dallas by 1. Who do you like? I think I like Dallas.

The fact that this opened with Dallas as a favorite is Vegas just telling you something. Anybody will look at this and go, hang on, what is that? And it's basically like, the Vikings are running super hot. And I think in the last two weeks, we've decided they're legit.

And that's not how this works. It's not a yes or no. It's ever-changing. And Dallas had a bad loss, but Aaron Rodgers owns owns them i think you can probably say like yeah is is minnesota a team that you love winning a game after the miracle they pulled off last week with kirk cousins wearing the chains on the airplane for two weeks in a row like i just feels like a good a goodbye low spot on dallas um that that would be my play i think completely

agree with you um on this one uh minnesota 17th and dvoa right now 17th cowboys are fourth now the run defense worries me we saw that that play an issue last week so you know dalvin cook might be able to get off a little bit but But they're going to be better this week. They're not going to let two weeks in a row go to waste. And remember, a couple calls were different in that game. Yeah, I think Dallas minus one here is absolutely a play that we have to make. It's a sharp play. A lot of people are going to be in the Vikings this week.

Vegas is telling you. Vegas is telling you that these teams are further apart than you think right the Cowboys are a neutral field probably you know three four point favorites yeah yeah I I'm very I was very surprised by this line because I assumed the public would come in so hard on the Vikings um but the fact that Vegas was willing to take all that money and still not be scared is a huge red flag. If you lean Minnesota on this, then this isn't your job. Maybe take a beat on it because this is very rare for a team with this good of a record to be home dogs

this late in the season. Good note here, Kirk Cousins and this is a late window game and 1pm games are earlier he's plus 12 against the spread and I can't do the math quickly but 46-34-2 against the spread at 1pm. 4pm or later 20-30 against the spread. So, little quirk but nice to know. so yeah little quirk but nice nice to know okay moving on to your kansas city chiefs the sunday night game they're at the chargers here in la uh chargers getting six and a half at home

gotta take the charges i just yeah but i just don't want to yeah that's fine um but you got the chargers only only way the Chargers are the only wager here. That's like the only way to play this game. But I just don't want to, so we're not, because it's my podcast. Fair enough. But no, I mean, look, Kansas City, so we saw last week,

and they actually covered as a big home favorite, which almost never happens. But the Chargers, you know, the Chargers, they play the Chiefs tough, but they're so injured, man. And they just don't use Herbert correctly. I could see the Chiefs just walloping them. Like, this is a game the Chiefs are going to be up for. They're going to play hard the entire time.

But it has to be, it has to be the Chargers. If you were wager on this game, that is the only play because every single schmuck who gambles, and we'll take the Chiefs here, minus six and a half. Yep. You do not want to be, oh, God, the teaser part. I didn't even realize that. Oh, my God.

The Chiefs are going to lose this game, aren't they? I think they actually might. I like this. I mean, I'm not as invested in the Chiefs. I'll probably bet this on the money line. Maybe parlay that with the Steelers. Ooh, that's tasty. God, when we get there, you get more than 10-1 on that. Yeah, that would be juicy. I mean, the KC are other than what you mentioned.

I mean, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both are returning to practice this week. It's unknown their exact status for the game. We're recording this on Wednesday. Returning to practice this week, it's unknown their exact status for the game. We're recording this on Wednesday. I mentioned last week, it didn't matter last week, Mahomes is a favorite of 3.5 or more, is actually under 500 against the spread. He's 28-31-1. Unbelievable when it's a shorter favorite.

The Chargers, this is their season, right? If they lose this game, they'll have, they'll have gotten swept by the chiefs. They'd be five and five. The chiefs would be eight and two. I know they don't have a great home crowd to throw off my homes or anything, but this is, this is absolutely like the most important game on their schedule, probably for the rest of the season. So with that, but I just don't know if they're even really good enough for the moment to

make it a game where they could even kind of use that for their efforts. That's a fair point. The Chiefs also have just been riding high. And the Chargers are never out of it with this coach and this quarterback with the backdoor. So I would put this in. I know that it's not going to make it. And all the Sharks are with me, too, plus 20% on the money. So Chargers are the play here, but we can pass on it. Yes. And game here yeah uh matt don't don't don't i'm just not gonna i mean we

can't actually pick this because we don't know who the quarterback's gonna be for the cardinals when we're recording this but that's probably a gift for you um because you would have come in hard i would have come in fucking scorching on the Cardinals, who are plus eight in Mexico City, a neutral field against the Niners. If this is Colt McCoy, that's my first choice. If it's Kyler Murray, that's my second choice. Cardinals, Cardinals. If it's – who's their third stringer? It's McSorley.

The team seems to almost play better with Colt McCoy. Yeah. I mean, McCoy, like, I think McCoy just like runs Kingsbury's offense where Murray is like, I'm just going to like do a bunch of crazy stuff. But again, it's like the same. I feel like we say the same things every week, but one of our big maxims,

we hate Shanahan as a big favorite. He's terrible as a big favorite. I have it in front of me. He's the fourth worst coach since his time in the league as a favorite. Last week we gave you the Chargers. They ended up covering that Sunday night game. The Cardinals will cover this and lose. That is what's going to happen.

Kingsbury's great as an underdog. Shanahan stinks as a favorite. The only problem is we just don't know who the quarterback is, so we can't put this in. We cannot. What I like about this game the most, by the way, is the fact that it's one of those where I could just go to bed at like 10 o'clock and not worry about it.

Totally. Like, who cares? A little housekeeping as we kind of go through, as we're going to go back through our games now. This quote just came across. I saw this. Nathaniel Hackett, coach of the Raiders, excuse me, the Broncos, said, quote,

somebody's got to win this game. So that's going in a tie, Matt. So we might have to remove Denver. God, man. Would you rather have him or McDaniels as your coach? Fuck. They're the two worst coach. I mean, Jeff Saturday somehow is better than either of them.

That's really tough all right so we have plenty to choose from unfortunately we're leaving off two of my favorites but we've got what do we got wait wait you mean chargers chargers for sure but we don't have to we don't have to take we plenty we like and we're not taking houston so we can we can handshake on that okay houston's's off of that. Okay. So we have, it looks like five we really liked, okay? So it was New Orleans, New England, so New Orleans minus four, the Rams, New England minus three, the Jets at home, Denver minus four and a half,

Denver minus two and a half, Pitt plus four, and Dallas minus one. The other two we had up here were Tennessee plus three, Thursday, I crossed that off. And the other one, the sixth one, is Giants minus three hosting the Lions. So I feel good about our five.

New Orleans, New Orleans facing the Dead Rams team. New Orleans facing the Jets off a bye. Denver, goddammit. Denver against the Raiders. Pitt, we love that one. And Dallas, we love. I don't know, man. I feel pretty good about the five. So we're taking out the Giiders. Pitt, we love that one. And Dallas, we love. I don't know, man. I feel pretty good about the five.

So we're taking out the Giants. Wait, no. No, so we have Saints, Patriots, Broncos, Steelers, Cowboys. So the only one, I mean, I think my fifth favorite is the Broncos. The Giants were the sixth. Right. Then we also had Tennessee as a maybe. I just want to make sure that that's what we like.

Yes. We had Tennessee as a maybe and Houston. I crossed Houston off. So we basically have Tennessee as a maybe and Giants is a maybe. The other five we liked more than the other ones. We like Denver more than we like the Giants against the Lions. That coach's comments might take me off. Maybe that was a sign. I'm being serious. That's a bad...

Are the Giants going to lose to Detroit? That's basically what we're saying. It's like the Giants love winning close games. The Lions love blowing close games. The Lions are getting a lot of love for beating Justin Fields. I like both of them. I really do. Which of these two teams is more likely to be alive?

The Lions, who play hard every week, or the Raiders? Yeah, the Raiders could fall apart. Could? I think they're already there. And it's two and a half. It's a better number. Let's take the Broncos. I'm glad we had the conversation. It's fine. So Saints, basically we're fading the Rams. New England,

we're playing them off of bygates, it's fine. So Saints, basically we're fading the Rams. New England, we're playing them off of bygates, the Jets. Denver. Oh my God, Pittsburgh is, oh God, it's my favorite one. Maybe my favorite one

of the season. And then Dallas, I like the Dallas one. That's under the radar. I didn't think about that one, Matt, but you're really right on

that one. And then Matt's other two favorites are the Chiefs. We don't really wager against the Chiefs on this podcast. And then I'm with you in Arizona.

If it's plus eight on Monday night, that's also a tease candidate, too, to plus 14. Yeah, that's a great one. We had 10 games we liked this week among the two of us. With Houston and Chargers out of it, we like the Giants, Tennessee, and Arizona. But Arizona doesn't really count. Good week, Jeff. I love Chargers out of it. We like the Giants, Tennessee and Arizona, but Arizona doesn't really count. Good week, Jeff. I love how you're like, well, if Cole McCoy doesn't play, I'm off of them. But if they play, if he plays them in. He competes. That's the thing. That team, it's like that offense.

Cliff Kingsbury can scheme a game. He's going to keep that close. Kyle Shanahan loves to just piss away leads, do weird stuff in the fourth quarter. I agree. I'm with you. It's a free one. Great teaser again there. You can get plus 15 if it's something like that. There's a lot of teasing possibility this week,

which is not great. Yeah, that's usually a bad sign. Yeah, it's a bad sign. All right, guys. We have New Orleans, New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, Dallas. We have a bunch of close lines, four points, one point, two and a half, three points. So any last words, Matt? No, let's hear your Pac-12.

Oh, yeah. So 27 and 17 this year. I post these picks, all of them, by the way, on Twitter on Fridays. So if you're looking to find them, all of them together, they're on Friday. So obviously Oregon lost. That's very unfortunate and I want to cry into my pillow all night still, even on Wednesdays and record this. Let me pull up what I got here. I liked Arizona State at home plus eight. I like UCLA

hosting USC. I got that at plus three. I like UCLA hosting USC. I got that at plus three. I think you can take a look at Washington team total over 48 in this game. We're hosting Colorado. There's a play I might make on Cal. We'll see, but that's where I'm at right now. Maybe Arizona,

but that's, that's where I'm at right now. Maybe Arizona, but that's where I'm at right now. Oregon State, UCLA, over for Washington, team total points. So, yeah, there we go. Conference of champions. Free money, baby. Conference of champions. I'm excited for when Maryland plays USC

in track and field, and you go to a USC track and field match watch your Maryland Terrapins play I'll be there I'll I'll be there 100% man so great I know right all right so tacos or pizza now oh yeah so I'm in New York City everybody okay you want something really dumb I'll tell you this this dumb story before I get out of here if you're still listening now you get to hear my dumb story so I'm at this, and I was here last week in New York. I'm going to be on First Things First and the Craig Carden Show Thursday and Friday. They're going to catch me there.

And I couldn't find a closet, okay? But there's a door right as you enter the room. There was a door, right? And I door handled down. Like, I put the door in. It didn't move at all. I'm like, oh, okay, it's locked. It's in between.

It's the adjoining room door, okay? But i can't find a closet like i just couldn't find a closet i was like well maybe it's one of those places where you have to like call like they bring you like a little thing to hang your stuff on but i didn't really need it per se so i show up today to check in and say well tell me hey like do you guys have like a closet in your rooms and she said it's the number one question we get you know that wow yeah you know that door in your room i'm like yeah she goes yeah you just have to pull it the handle doesn't work what yeah she goes yeah everyone does that everyone goes to turn the knob the handle to pull the door open and everyone gets stuck because it doesn't move at all but all

you gotta do is pull it forward and it opens up on you. Is this a major hotel chain? Hyatt, yeah. She said it's the number one issue, the number one thing she gets asked about. Like she gets asked, she said if she had a dollar, every time she asked about that, she could retire. Oh my God, that is unreal.

Have you heard Adam Carolla's bit about how every hotel shower should be the same? And then every time you go into a hotel shower and you're like, how the fuck? What are they like? There's 25 different. It's so frustrating. All this hotel stuff like it's so it's like a Hyatt, a Hilton, a Marriott, like all these big places. It's like, just make it simple. Like, you're not there for the time of your life. You're there because you're there to do some TV. Like, you just want to hang up your nice polos and look good on TV. I want good internet. I want to be able to hang up my,

my, yeah, my, my dress clothes. Um, so yeah, that's, yeah,

it's right there. I opened it up when I walked in the room. I was like, Oh shit, there's that closet. I'm going to take a video and send it to you. Like seriously. I can't wait.

Like it doesn't. So I went to move. I went to turn the handle and I was like, Oh's locked okay like it's a door a joining room door but nope it's the closet so i look like a dummy i was uh i was sitting on the couch the other night and i was looking at instagram and there is a story of jeff in a nice suit like jeff you just look great you're and i was like i i was smiling and ivy was like what and i was like look at our boy jeff like doesn't he look great and she goes ask him where he's off to and you were flying dinner with darren revell oh darren's my guy we love darren i went to dinner um with darren blackjack and paulie in vegas oh my god for the march Madness years ago. And Ravel is just,

I dare gets a bad rap. He's like really cool. Like in person, he is totally chill. He's totally different in person. But he, he wanted to order like one of everything. So like,

he just want to try it and take pictures of it. I was like, buddy, dude, you got to do man. That's your jam. Like you're, that's your jam.

One, one actually last real thing so hank put in the chat here why is the teasers like all the games being teased a bad sign because vegas tries to avoid obvious teasers because they know everyone's going to play them but also the obvious teasers never hit that's that's why like they never hit like the ones like oh yeah chiefs duh bills yeah you know that that's easy there um oh we'll tease this direction like we'll get more points every time every time you it never was so dangerous like it just doesn't work yeah so that's why if you listen to our one of my personal heroes

Bill Simmons podcasts he's down so hard this year and it's all the stuff where it's just like oh yeah that teaser didn't hit like oh yeah this 11 point favorite lost outright you know it's just like the ones that feel too easy are never ever the ones

you want to bet on it's always the ones where you're like huh Dallas laying one point against an 8-2 team? Those are the ones that you need to just sort of lean into because there's a reason those casinos are so big. It certainly is, buddy. Alright, everybody. Hope you enjoyed this. We enjoy doing this show each week. Hope we win you guys some more money this week. Please give us a rating if you like our show. You can tweet at JeffSchwartz at MM410. Catch me on TV this week. Catch me on the radio show. Catch me anywhere. Alright guys, have a great

weekend. Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Take care.