Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 12

Episode Date: November 23, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back earlier than usual this week to give you the best bets for Thanksgiving, plus look over all the action this Sunday. Tune in for all the strategy and advice you need to make your turkey day profitable.If you enjoyed the show, be sure to leave a rating and a comment to tell us what you thought, or you can let the boys know directly on Twitter @geoffschwartz and @mmford10. Happy Thanksgiving!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Wednesday, November 23rd. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart U, powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Welcome to our weekend wagering preview. It is a day early because it is Thanksgiving. Hope everyone has a happy Thanksgiving, a holiday you can celebrate with family and friends. And football. There's football Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, college, NFL. We'll get you previewed mostly for the NFL. It's Tuesday when we're recording this. We are a day earlier than usual. I do not know how much we're going to give you as far as data and trends. But Matt, one reason why we've been good this year, 29, 24, and 2, we're winning this year.

We've ditched the trends. We've ditched like some of those things and we just kind of gone with what we see the line what we know but part of that though is that it's Tuesday so it's going to be hard to kind of do all this stuff a day earlier than usual yeah that's right and you breezed over it buddy five games over 500 this is pretty good this is and we're we're in week 12 here like this isn't this is no longer a small sample size like we're having a pretty good. And we're in week 12 here. This is no longer a small sample size. We're having a pretty good season, I think. We absolutely are.

We could have gone 5-0. We went 3-2 last week. Oh, my God. We're doing well. And there's other things to wager on as well. I mean, World Cup's happening right now. If you had bet on Saudi Arabia, you'd be a very wealthy human this morning. I woke up to like, oh, soccer is on.

I have a game on now, France-Australia. So as we record this, but I hope you didn't come here for any World Cup takes. I don't have any. Matt, you follow soccer. Maybe you do. No, I don't follow soccer at all. Yesterday, I was enjoying the U.S. game,

bet on them to win felt great about it and soccer betting I mean football betting like basically the only betting is just about like knowing how your heart is going to get broken right like in football like you know you're like okay so I have this team minus three

or they're minus six and they're driving with the ball with two minutes left they're going to kick a field goal and win the game. And I'm going to get screwed. Right? Like, you know that. Yes.

But when us was up early yesterday, I was like, we got this. We're up one zip. Like what's going to happen? Like, and then you just forget like soccer sucks. It ends in ties.

Like it was, I got so pissed off yesterday. And I've never seen a play happen in a sport where everyone's like, yep, the ref got that one. Right. Like I've never, it was kind of like, I went to Twitter. I was like, I'm sure there's angry people in a sport where everyone's like, yep, the ref got that one right. Like, I've never, like, it was kind of like I went to Twitter. I was like, I'm sure there's angry people right now.

And everyone's like, nope, penalty. Shouldn't have done that. That's kind of confusing for me as a sports fan. Everyone was like, yeah. Everyone. No one was like, everyone was like, yeah, I'm stupid. Shouldn't have done that. Constantly.

I do have one soccer question, everybody. If you guys are following me, at Jeff Schwartz, at MM410. Also... Fire soccer tapes. No, no, no. You do.

It was pretty funny. But, okay. I have this burning soccer question. It's very stupid, but I need to know the answer. So I need you to

leave a reply somewhere for me, soccer people. Why can't they use their hands? Oh, that too. What language does the official speak to everybody english it's english yeah it's like the official fifa language

unless this has changed like because i asked this once like i think the last world cup i watched which was eight years ago i was like how do they all communicate with each other and they're english because of us the asshole americans who like made everyone speak English in the whole world. It's crazy. I thought it was English. I would imagine that and you're right though, we made the rest of the world speak our language more than anything else. But I always wonder, there's a lot of arguing

in soccer and I have to imagine officials talking to right now Australia and France are playing. Obviously Australia speaks English but I'm sure the French players at some point would learn English. But I just was like, well, what? Argentina and Saudi Arabia played earlier. Are they speaking English to both those teams?

Yes, I guess. Yeah. I mean, for an example, Jeff, imagine if you were to go to Barcelona where they speak Catalan and you were to order a suckling pig at dinner with our wives, you would do it in English, right? Do we do it in English? I don't even remember. Si.

Do we do it in English? I forgot. Si, papi. Oh, the suckling pig was good. Oh, buddy. Really good. All right. Well, let's get into football.

Three and two last week. What a transition. We have three Thanksgiving games, kind of a really odd smorgasbord of games this weekend. And I will say this right now. Again, it is Tuesday as we record this. This will be out Wednesday morning. We can change things. It's early.

Like injury reports aren't even – no one's practiced yet. Like injury reports aren't out yet. Yep. So if weird things happen, which we haven't done all season. We've talked, Matt and I have talked about it many times. Like, hey, we should probably do this. We stuck with things. We've won wagers that way.

But this weekend, especially with some injury news, that might not be plausible. So make sure to check in my Twitter if we change anything throughout the week. And also, you know, we skipped the kind of review podcast the weekend. So as we go through these teams, some games might be short. Some we might spend a little bit more time talking about the news for each team. Let's go with the early Thursday game. Yeah, first game on Thursday will be maybe the most entertaining.

Bills at Lions. The Lions are getting 10 as we're recording this. Not a traditionally great spot for the Lions. They have not done super well on Thanksgiving in the past. Yeah, we're going to get into this. But home underdogs, this is a great stat from Evan at Action. 2-26 straight up on Thanksgiving since 2000. So not very good.

I'm wondering, I think a lot of people are going to be on the Lions here. What do we think? I'm on the Lions in this one. I mean, I get it. It's nine and a half points. It's a lot of points, Matt,

but the Bills like playing inside on turf is their dream. Like this is like perfect for them. And the Lions are a fun story. They've won two in a row. They beat the Bears by one. They went to New York and pummeled the Giants, which you should have seen coming, by the way. The Giants kind of went back to earth.

But when Buffalo is going as they were against the Browns, you're not staying within 10 points if you're the Lions to me. That, I think, is sort of my concern when it comes to the Lions in this spot. I don't feel like laying it with the Bills either. So I don't have a great opinion for where this game should be at. Yeah, I don't either.

I think what everyone's going to end up doing is a big teaser on Thanksgiving, and somebody's going to bust it, but this is like the most obvious teaser game of all time. Like tease the Bills down to three or two or whatever. Because you do think the Bills are probably going to bust it. But this is like the most obvious teaser game of all time. Like tease the Bills down to three or two or whatever. Because you do think the Bills are probably going to win. The Lions have been feisty. They do, you know, it seems like they figured out the formula on offense.

This ball control, great offensive line. A lot of Swift and Williams thing. Buffalo, by the way, like I'm curious to see how they handled this week like they were in detroit i heard they were flying back to buffalo like i'm really that's like such a strange set of circumstances that they would do that um but i don't know i feel like buffalo would doesn't need to go out go in there and like torch the lions for to prove a point or anything i feel like they'll be happy to just get the win and move on agree but the lions have been feisty so it's like i wouldn't be shocked if they backdoored it.

I would not be either, but I don't feel... Do you feel great about Jared Goff driving down 17 at the end of the game? No, I don't really have a feel for this one, to be honest. I think Buffalo probably wins, but probably a teaser came out. Okay, the 4.30 game, Eastern Time, Thursday. Giants at Cowboys. I feel like the Giants never play on Thanksgiving. They really do.

This is usually a commander spot. Cowboys are laying nine or nine and a half. Pretty big spread. A lot of people might see the bloom off the rose with the Giants here. I don't know. What do you think of this? Oh, man. I think the only play would be the Giants in this spot at plus nine, nine and a half.

The problem is we kind of just saw what I think they were this past weekend. And kind of that quick start and the way that they were talked about as being maybe better than their record kind of came down to earth against the Lions. It looked pretty bad. The football of the Cowboys kind of hit their stride. I do not expect the Cowboys to play that well on Thursday night. A couple things to note. Daniel Jones is 7-0 against the spread on a short rest, which is wild to me.

And Dak is like the opposite. He's terrible on short rest. But, man. I don't. Dallas never covers things. I know. But, like, the Giants guys, and I know we use the fishing numbers,

they're 21st in overall efficiency. They're 27th on defense. Dallas is second. Like, I get that Daniel Jones might be able to come back in this game and cover it late, but I don't feel great about it. Yeah, the Giants, too. I too i mean the giants are decimated and i think that's something that's a little hard to get a read on it this early in the week but

i think i saw that they were going to be down maybe six starters or at least contributing players from the last couple weeks of injury they were already sort of hanging on by a thread and i i felt like this line was actually pretty fair. Dallas, by the way, in their wins this year, you just look at obviously last week they blew out the Vikings. We're about to talk about them. They blew out the Bears two weeks ago. They blew out the Lions by 18.

They blew out Washington by 15. They blew out the Rams by 12. That game didn't feel as close as the score was. They're a team that is very capable of running it up um especially at home like especially if the giants if the giants get down you know if the giants are down seven nothing is this game over like it just kind of feels like that with the amount of injuries that giants have on an already pretty weak receiving core um so i could see this one getting out of hand. I would consider Dallas, but it's also a divisional game they've played before, and Dallas only won that one by seven earlier in the year.

Yeah, that's Cooper Rush, though. So it's probably a layoff with another, you know, this is like a teaser lock, which kind of makes it a little bit scary. That was Cooper Rush, too, with the Cowboys in that game. Yeah, that was Cooper Rush. That's right. That was Cooper Rush, too, with the Cowboys in that game. Yeah, that was Cooper Rush.

That's right. So I think I'm – I mean, you could convince me to maybe put the Giants in a maybe category here, but – Oh, interesting. I think I'd be on Dallas. I don't know. I just don't feel great about it, honestly. I really don't. I don't either.

Okay. I feel like it's a pass. I mean, it's a shame. We probably want to get one of these picks out there for Thanksgiving, but maybe we'll get one here, actually. The Vikings, who are now – everyone's dogging on the Vikings. They are hosting the Patriots. They're two and a half or three-point favorites.

Depending if we pick this game, maybe we'll just shop for the best number here. What do you think? Do you have a read on this one? Yeah, I really like the Vikings in this one, right? I'm so glad you said that. The Patriots, guys, can't score. Like, they're not good

at scoring points. Matt Jones is not playing good football. The Patriots are 26th right now in offensive efficiency. Matt Jones is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL right now.

The Patriots are winning because they're number one on defense. They're really good on defense. They're good on... Like, they do all the NFL right now. The Patriots are winning because they're number one on defense. They're really good on defense. They're good on – like, they do all the other things well. But I expect the Vikings to bounce back from a very embarrassing performance on Saturday – I'm sorry, on Sunday. They are at home again. And, look, the Vikings kind of came back to earth against the Cowboys.

We knew that was coming at some point, right? Because efficiency-wise, they have not been great. And Cousins' prime time, I get it. That's not great either. But the Patriots, I don't think are... Are they going to... I just... I feel like we're gambling against the trends here, right?

We're taking the Vikings and Cousins on primetime, which is terrible to do. We're taking a team with a negative two-point differential. Taking a team that isn't great efficiency-wise. It's a Belichick team that, you know, again, we almost should never doubt Belichick in these spots. But I do think in this moment, though, the Vikings are the play because the Patriots

just aren't very good in offense. Yeah. I'm so, I was not sure what side you're going to be on here, but I'm on the same side mainly because like everyone is talking about the Vikings as this fraudulent team. I just want to remind people like who the Patriots have beaten this year. The Patriots are six and four.

They beat the jets twice. They beat the Colts. And then Frank Reich was fired the next week. They beat the Browns. they beat the jets twice they beat the colts and then frank rake was fired the next week they beat the browns they beat the lions and they beat pittsburgh uh in week two by three points so like of those teams like what's their best win their best win is the jets who they own like congratulations um the vikings meanwhile like they've laid two eggs this season and every other game there's 20 plus points they're very good like i get it their defense has given up a lot of points like the point differential thing is like a very convenient staff to point to but like the vikings have played

some tough teams they've played dallas they've played buffalo they've played washington they've played the dolphins like they've played some real teams, and, like, you know, 10 games in an 8-2 record is real. I think they're clearly the better team here, and I saw that our buddy Chad put this one in in action. I think this is a good one for us to think about. The Patriots don't score in the first quarter, 15 total points. You'd think maybe the Vikings coming in,ousins loves like a good scripted series like I could feel them coming in and like putting up some points in the first quarter and essentially putting the game away like I don't I don't think that the Patriots are going to like lead some

rousing comeback behind Mac Jones so that could be a little angle there is to take first half for first quarter or something like that for Minnesota um but yeah I like I like Minnesota here it's no fun baiting against Belichick with all these trends, like you mentioned, but I just, I think the Patriots are the frauds, not the Vikings. I'm with you. I totally agree. So we have one Thanksgiving game and the maybes.

I think this will be a yes though. Based on the way this schedule is happening. Yeah. I like it. All right, let's go to Sunday. Okay. Let's do that. The first game Sunday, the Ravens are going to Jacksonville, Jacksonville

off the bye. The spread is about four, four, three and a half. What do you think? I have no feel for this one. You know, Baltimore this season, they're almost like the Chiefs of years past. We're like these big spreads they used to cover. And now you're like, eh, I don't know.

They kind of just haven't been doing it this year. They played a really lackluster game against the Panthers. I mean, the Panthers had any quarterback better than Baker Mayfield. They'd probably lose that game. The Ravens do. Jacksonville has not been great this season. They've pieced together a couple wins here and there. Offensively, Trevor Lawrence can be great,

but then still makes enough you know enough errors where you still worry about it 26th and DVOA on on offense for them to me it's just like a no play like I just I'm not I'm not taking Jacksonville and I'm sure not taking Baltimore well let me see if I can change your mind here Jeff um I want to point out we we said we're not going to lean too much into trends but here's two for you doug peterson one and four against the spread after a buy john harbaugh 10 four and two versus opponents coming off of a buy um i found those to be pretty interesting uh when you look at this spread like it didn't move after last week this is what the line was last week the ravens had that sort of

weird non-cover win against the panthers they looked a little sluggish so you know Jacksonville that basically like they didn't improve their standing at all meanwhile Jacksonville like when's the last time that they actually I feel like they're still getting credit for how they played I don't know three months ago at this point like beating the Colts beating the Chargers like that was their last game that they actually had a good performance in. Reminder, they beat the Raiders. They lost to the Chiefs. They lost to the Broncos. They lost to the Giants. They lost to the Colts. They lost to the Texans. I think they're a pretty trash team. I do think that Baltimore, this isn't a 13-point spread. This is a 4-point spread. I don't think that this game is

going to be close. What's the path for Baltimore to lose it? I don't really see it. Well, they just don't finish the game as we've seen throughout the season at times. Sure, but they don't have to win by 10. They just have to win. No, I know. You're right.

The Jaguars have a terrible kicker. This is going to be a dead crowd. Baltimore, this is what they do, right? They do beat these bad teams. Last week, it was close all game. It was an under game. Their defense, yes, their offense hasn't been great, but their defense is definitely coming into form here. I could see

this one being 20-10. That would cover without even really a sweat. That's fair. We've made this pact this year, man. If you like something, we're putting in the maybes and probably going to play it. Because there's not a lot of other things I love this week. So that's probably why as well.

Yeah, on Tuesday, that's one I definitely have a couple. Okay, the Tuesday part is obviously difficult about this. All right, let's move to the next game here. Yeah, also, by the way, last week, Lamar had some sort of illness that they said wasn't COVID. We haven't seen one COVID positive in the NFL all season. We're not testing, I don't think. Well, I mean, somebody maybe is putting a swab up their nose at home.

I took one today. People do it. I'm fine, by the way. But I just found that to be kind of strange. I wondered if Lamar didn't totally look great last week, so I wonder if maybe we're getting a rejuvenated Lamar this week. Just a guess. Okay, moving on to another well-regarded quarterback.

Tom Brady and the Bucs are facing Cleveland in Cleveland. Bucs off a bye. Probably Jacoby Brissett's last start here. The Bucs are laying three and a half. There's still some threes around. I'll tell you why that's important. So I do a Sunday radio show on Fox Sports Radio with Bill Krackenberg,

and he is a professional sports wagerer. He bets like six figures a day, like college basketball or whatever. It's his job. He makes a lot of money. We have a text thread going and he sends us his wagers every now and then. And most of them, they're sides.

I mean, they're totals, Matt, like team totals, unders, overs, things like that. Very rare does he take a side. And he texted us today and said, Tampa minus three. I was like, oh, why is that? He's like, and he's kind of explained it to me. He's kind of right.

Tampa Bay is off a bye. We've seen Tom Brady off a bye with Tampa Bay kind of accelerate the team afterwards. They just played their best offensive three quarters of the season against Seattle all the way back in Germany, if you recall. They're relatively healthy, right? I mean, they have some guys on the offensive line, but generally speaking, they're generally healthy right now. And the Browns' defense stinks.

Like, the Browns, it's more like it's also a Browns take. Like, the Browns allow the Bills, who do not run the ball, to dominate them at the line of scrimmage. And Jacoby Brissett is just not good. He's an average backup, and the more film you get on him, the stinkier he plays. I can find a three right now. I would take Tampa minus three.

Yeah. I would take him at three and a half. I mean, this is just, I don't see, I don't know if the Browns, I watched a decent amount of them last week. I'm just not a buyer. And I think this is sort of like the light in the end of the tunnel week, too. You've got Deshaun practicing.

He's going to take some of those reps. It seems they're looking in a different direction now, right? This is no longer like, hey, we've got to keep this thing afloat. It's like the real season starts for them next week. So I could see a rejuvenated Tampa come out and sort of blow the doors off here. Absolutely. I feel like this is like, oh, the Fournette looks good again week. Maybe Rashad White looks good instead.

The Cleveland's run defense is terrible. Bucks D is good. Run D is good. I'm a buyer. Agreed. Let's do it. 10 minus 3. Love it. Awesome, dude.

We've somehow got maybe 3 already and we're not even in every team place this week. We've got a lot to choose from. Okay, Bears at Jets. This is one we probably can't talk about really because of the injuries and all that stuff. The Jets are laying 4.5 as we record this. Also, Zach

Wilson may or may not play. To me, if Wilson doesn't play i'd love the jets in this spot yeah me too at minus four and a half i don't think field even if he plays he's a left shoulder dislocation like he's not able to run the ball and take a hit i don't think it was zach wilson you can even play this at four and a half i i zach wilson's just really bad and and i just i can't put money on a zach wilson-led team i'm sorry yeah if anyone else starts jets 100 here flacko yeah fine someone anyone else yeah so flacko this year he started three games he had two 300 yard games and rogers does not have one 300 yard game yet think think

about that that's wilson or rogers rogers um wilson might either, but Rodgers is more noteworthy because he just won the MVP twice in a row. So this is a pass, but possibly lean Jets, depending this is one we could maybe come back to later in the week. Okay, here's the line I didn't understand at all. Cincinnati going to Tennessee. Cincinnati road favorites of up to two and a half. When are people going to get it on the Titans?

Like what, what is this? Yeah. I'll do the Titans plus two and a half. Sure. What are we talking about? It's like Mike Rabel with extra days of prep, like with the Bengals.

Like what is like, honestly, like what is this? The disparity between the one and a half and two and a half is incredible too. Oh, it's huge. what is this? And again, the disparity between the 1.5 and 2.5 is incredible, too. Oh, it's huge. Yeah, I have sung praise for Mike. We knew last week we should have taken them on Thursday night, too. We knew it, and we didn't do it.

And Vrabel, if he gets more than seven days of rest, it's like, what's his record against the spread? It's ridiculous. Yeah, it's insane. And look, the Bengals might get Jamar Chase back, and I get that. But the Tennessee defense is really, really good. Ryan Tannehill still does worry me a little bit, but they pushed the ball a little bit more downfield against the Packers.

So that kind of made me feel better about their offense a little bit. But more than anything, to me, this is the defense. The defense here, to me, is the reason why you take the Titans plus the points. Yeah. I mean, Tennessee is finally getting healthy. You mentioned Chase, but Ryan Tannehill's issue has been his health. The lack of wide receivers is there, too. Trelon Burks came back 100-plus yards.

Tannehill last week on the road in Green Bay on a short week went 22 for 27, 330 in two touches. That's pretty unbelievable. Yeah.ry had his touch too so it's like if he's back and i feel like honestly the argument for this is like well remember last year in the playoffs like the the bangles won but like that was a year ago and derrick henry wasn't himself so and possibly the joe mixon thing which i think is huge like samajai piran had three touchdowns last week. Let's see him do that again against the Titans. I think this is just like,

I don't see why you would not include Titans in anyone's picks this week, just based off the respect for variable. Win or lose, this is a bet you just kind of have to make. Agreed. I'm with you. Yeah, Tennessee plus two and a half, done. I don't think it's very hard. Great. I mean, jeez. We're flying through this here. Texans

Dolphins is the next game. Dolphins off the bye. We can save people time. They're eating their turkey right now, listening to the podcast. Can we just save them time here? Or do you have a pick? No. I will say after watching the Texans, they are by far the worst team in the league.

Yes. The only team that's close is Denver because they are also, they are maybe just as bad. But I could see the Dolphins running this up big time. Like, this could be like the Jeff Wilson 170-yard game. Like, I feel like that's what's going to happen here. Yeah, I think it is totally. But I don't want to wager on the Dolphins in this spot, though. No, it's a weird number.

If we were drawing dead on everything else, I'd actually consider my name here, but we'll pass on it. They're just going to run that game. Because the next game, I like someone in the next game. Oh, boy, are we? All right, the Falcons are taking on the Commanders in what will be a chaotic game. I can just promise you that.

Four, four and a half, moved up from three taylor heineke's unstoppable um i want to pull up his spread record from halloween oh they have they have it right here i think put in the chat believe it or not he actually did some work today i like the commanders in this game to cover since since heineke took over they're 21st in DVOA on offense, which isn't great for efficiency, but they were 28th. And they're 8th on defense. They're a better football team because they trust their quarterback. And Atlanta just kind of keeps backsliding. I was looking this up.

Let me pull it back up here. Mariota this year has one game over 200 yards passing in the last eight weeks. He can't move the ball. Remember, they scored 27 points, and that was including a Cordell Patterson kickoff return touchdown. And the Bears, you can't stop anybody. Mariota this year has thrown for the last three games,

131, 186, 129. Overtime game, 253. 124, 129, 147-139. But remember we tried to bet Mariota underpassing this year, and we couldn't find a sportsbook to add it up because they thought it would be the easiest wager we cashed all season. Yeah, it would have been great.

I am very, very much in favor of Washington here. It might be too trendy, Matt. I don't know if you feel like doing it, but I'd be okay with it. Yeah, man. But it does feel like this is the game where Washington stinks it up, and you're like, well, here we go. It might be too trendy, Matt. I don't know if you feel like doing it, but I'd be okay with it. Yeah, man. But it does feel like this is the game where Washington stinks it up, and you're like, well, here we go.

It's the Commanders. Maybe. I thought that would have been last week after the big win on a short week. Yes. The other thing that, I mean, yes, Heineke 4-0-1 since he took over the starting job, but since last year, if you want to extend it, since last Halloween, I have this in front of me here. He is 10-3-1 in his last, or 10-2-1, sorry,

since he took over back then as well. So he's, I mean, the team plays really well under him. You've got Kyle Pitts, who's out for this game, out for the next few. I know he hasn't had like a big statistical impact, but that basically shrinks what you have to worry about by half in terms of the passing game. And also, no one's talking about this, Jeff. Chase Young coming back this week.

He's going to be on a pitch count, but that defense has been playing awesome. You add the rookie of the year two years ago to that mix, like, oh boy. I think Washington's a good play here, even though we missed the three or three and a half where it started. Yeah, I'm fine with Washington here. At least a maybe for now, right? I think they're not like maybe, maybe for now, right? Yeah, yes.

Okay, we've got a bunch to choose from. And oddly, I can't believe I'm saying this. I sort of have an opinion on this one too. The Broncos are at Carolina. I do not. Panthers are two and a half point home dogs. Dude, I think Denver, they're lucky. They need to send Levy Smith like Thanksgiving turkey or something

because they would be the definite worst team in the league if it were not for the Texans. I like if, if PJ Walker plays for this team, they're actually pretty good for Carolina. If Mayfield's in, it's a no bet, but I just want to like take a second to talk about how excruciating Denver

is. Like that game that they blew to the, to the Raiders last week is like coaching malpractice quarterback malpractice it's so bad that the running game with this melvin gordon thing where they release him and now they have latavius it's like they could have addressed all of their problems in so many different ways and i just i just i think they're the most disappointing team not just this year but in the last years. I've never seen a team that looks more inept on offense. And even on defense, by the way, it's like everyone's talking about how great their secondary

was. Devontae Adams just walked into the end zone at the end of the game. What are they doing? Yeah, I'm with you. But remember, too, the Panthers also stink. I think they're better. I don't think it stink. I think they're better. I don't think it's a question that they're better. I don't really want to bet it, but if I had to bet this game,

it's definitely Carolina, 100%. I'm with you on what you're going to do, but I just know. Yeah, fair pass, but holy shit, Denver, you're terrible. Okay, moving on. Let's go to – are we in the late window we are first late window game the aforementioned raiders taking on the seahawks what the hell is this line jeff i'm looking at three and a half here for seattle off the buy here are there any threes let me look but if uh if there are i feel like we absolutely have to take seattle i feel we absolutely have to take Seattle. I feel like you have to take them at three and a half.

Yeah, but we've been trying to avoid the hooks this year. No threes. Three and a half everywhere. I'm sorry. How is this? Do we remember what Seattle is? Did Dubai erase everyone's memory on them? I'm with you. it's surprising to me what why do you think this is this way though maybe just the Raiders coming

off of a win that everyone watched like maybe it's a little bit of a fate of Seattle but I mean incredible home field I think three and a half is the number where people are like uh Seattle like I don't know. Let me see here. I'm kind of curious about if the – I guess it's Tuesday. Yeah, I mean, Seattle's markedly better, so this kind of worries me about why the number is why it is. I guess it was – it opened at four and a half too? No, it didn't.

Oh, so it got that down? That's strange. I thought it opened – No, sorry. I see someone put it in here at four and a half. That might have been a look-ahead line. Wow. out. No, sorry. I see someone put it in here at four and a half. That might have been a look ahead line. Wow. It's going to four.

It'll be at four soon, I think. The Raiders this season are undefeated against the Broncos and Texans and 0-7 against everybody else. Yeah. And they have not played a beast steadily. This is done. Seattle minus three and a half we have to yeah we have to no you're right we have to i this actually might be the advantage

of playing at this i think the rest of the games are kind of stink fest and like you're right the seahawks i mean can you see the seahawks win this game 35 10 like just smoking them, right? Off a bye? Not even, yeah. Like, 100 million percent, yeah. Okay, done. All right. Interesting. Okay, we're flying here. Chargers-Cardinals. I have no clue who the quarterback of the Cardinals is going to be.

They let me down last night. Chargers lay in four or four and a half. I told you, man. There's the fade girl out there, and you decided to do your own thing. You decided to do your own thing, buddy. I mean, everything lined up there. There were two last week. The Steelers killed me, too.

That was one that's like, that's another just go off the history, and sometimes you miss. But we're not betting this game, right? We are not betting this game. You are correct. Bad number. The Cardinals would be the play-ins. I can't do it. Speaking of no bets, the Chiefs-Rams, which could have been a Super Bowl preview, is instead probably the biggest line of the season. 15 is

14.5-15. No chance we're taking the Chiefs with that big of a line. No chance. Just don't even make the case. Don't do it. She knew I was going to do it. We're not laying it, Jeff. There is zero chance. We're not laying it, but this is going to be 45 to 10. Like, the Rams are broken, but the Chiefs routinely make these games very close.

We don't have to. 100%. Yep. Yeah. So. Everyone's going to tease it. I got to say, man. We do get things wrong on this podcast.

Of course we do because we're humans. But we also freaking nailed the NFC West this year. Yep. I think all six of our wagers in the NFC West are going to hit. That we did. I mean, that makes up for like none of them in the NFC East. But, like, the Chiefs division was incredibly – plus money, and they've already wrapped it up, basically.

Yeah. There are three games ahead of the Chargers, and they have the tiebreaker. It's ridiculous, man. Mahomes MVP, too. You didn't mention that. Oh, yeah. Well, that's part of one of our – that's $900 in our pocket right there, buddy. Yeah, that's going to be hard, too. You didn't mention that. Oh, yeah. Well, that's part of one of our – that's $900 in our pocket right there, buddy.

Yeah, that's going to be hard, too. You know the funny part is our long shots that we took that we put less units on are all – like we were on track to hit the Brees Hall one, right? Yeah. We were on track to hit – well, Devin Lloyd might still win, but Sauce Gardner is going to win that award.

Yeah, definitely. But we were like on track to hit some of these big futures, and we just took less money on them. So it is what it is. That Damian Pierce thing, that was such a good call. Yeah, but that was like $50 we took on. I know. We're going to get a nice return on that one.

I know. I know. Yeah. And by the way, last two weeks, I was pretty heavy on the Chargers, and then who was it this or it was the chargers this week and who was it the week before the chiefs played that i was i tried to talk you into it jackson jackson yeah i tried to talk you into it and each time the chiefs covered against jacksonville maybe i'm maybe i'm misremembering no the chargers you want the chargers you want

the chargers twice in a row that's what it was it was what um I was the Chargers twice in a row. That's what it was. It was what? It was the Chargers twice in a row. But anyway, there were a few times where we made the right call on the Chiefs and laid off them because we didn't want to bet against them. That turned out to be right. We've had a good read on this team. That's a long way of saying pass on this game. Don't tease it. It's going to come back to bite people.

Just lay off. What if you do the 13-point team? Just take the money line at that point. You're right. Just put a money line parlay together. Okay, next. The 49ers are big favorites again in the late window. They're laying

everywhere from 8 to 9.5. This is why it's so early this week. Pass. Against the Saints. Yeah, big pass. I'm tired of fading Shanahan as a big favorite. This does feel like a decent spot to do it, but I don't have interest. Not taking the Dahl or Winston-led Saints in this game.

No chance. Yeah. Winston, could he be back? All right, Sunday night game. This would almost have been good a few weeks ago. The dead Packers are going to Philly, who are only laying six and a half. Kind of a curious disrespect of the Eagles here, I feel like.

Really? Don't you? What is – like Green Bay stinks, man. The Eagles have not played as well the last couple of games, though. Texans, and they lost, and then they won by one in Indianapolis. They're just not playing as well right now. So I get why people are off of them. And to me, I don't think the Packers are good. But we're talking about, do they cover seven or six and a half?

I don't feel great taking the Eagles in this spot. They haven't looked as good. It just seemed, obviously, the run defense struggled. They brought Linville Joseph, and he played well against the Colts. A couple of long runs here and there, but generally speaking. But the offense is just not as crisp lately, man. Just not as crisp. So, to me, I would lay off of this one.

But I think if you're playing a side, it would be maybe the Eagles. But I don't have a great feel for this one either. Yeah, the bloom's off the Eagles a little bit, but I don't necessarily agree with this line. Having said that, Rodgers prime time. Feels like it could bite you. Pass. Cool. Having said that, Rodgers prime time. Feels like a good bite shift pass. Cool. Speaking of passes, the Monday night game.

Steelers, Colts. Thank God I can take a week off of betting the Steelers, Jeff. By the way, I think Kenny Pickett could be good one day. I do too. There are flashes of him being good. They should have covered the Bengals game that was kind of a bummer

they just couldn't stop the running backs out the backfield catching the ball but yeah we're not come on

get out of here they could flex this game this is a game by the way okay who is our favorite person to fade who do they take

in this game I guess they're taking the Colts they're not taking Pitt are they well I don't want to have to bet so there's I'm not gonna say the person is but there's someone who gives out in this game? I guess they're taking... The Colts. They're not taking Pitt, are they? Well, I don't want to have to bet. So I'm not going to say the person is,

but there's someone who gives out picks every week who is the absolute worst in the NFL. And I legit just bet the opposite. If I don't have a side on the game, like last night, I'd have a side just took the opposite and I just won a bunch of money. And so in my life of football, Colts and Steelers do the same

thing. Take the exact opposite of the picks. Works every time. Yeah. There are people out there doing

that for us, Jeff. We're 29-24. We've never been bad enough to make anyone money. 100%.

We've also never been good enough to make anyone money. I think what's going to end up happening is at 5-14 Pacific time Monday,

I'm going to text you that I bet the Steelers. I can't get off of them, man. You made two wins for the Cardinals last night. I did. How dare you? I did. How dare you back a Cliff Kingsbury team in the second half of the season? Had a good week, Jeff.

Having a good season. Sometimes you just got to get some stinkers out of your way on a Monday night just to clear your system. Okay, so we have Minnesota minus two and a half. They're in, right? Yes. Okay. Tampa Bay minus three.

We both loved. Love. We love. We can get a three, right? What? We can get a three on that? Yes, there's a three. Okay.

We love Tennessee plus two and a half. Coast to the Bengals, right? What? We can get a three. There's a three. Okay. We love Tennessee plus two and a half post the Bengals, right? Yep. And we love Seattle minus three and a half at home against the Raiders. So to Seattle, Seattle minus three and a half. The other, the only other two that we kind of even gave a thing to was Baltimore minus

four against Jacksonville in Jacksonville and Washington minus four at home against the Falcons. I mean, if that's the case, I would take Baltimore minus four at home against the Falcons. I mean, if that's the case, I'd rather take Baltimore minus four, right? Me too. I'm seeing if we can find a three and a half. Oh, we can.

The point's bad. Three and a half. Baltimore minus three and a half? Yeah. So Minnesota minus two and a half, Tampa minus three, Tennessee plus two and a half, Seattle minus three and a half,

Baltimore minus three and a half Baltimore, minus three and a half. Yup. I love that. And I think you probably want to do, you want to say, what would you do for Thanksgiving? Obviously we're taking Minnesota. Yeah.

So for those who are curious about it, I would take, I mean, this is going to sound like it. I mean, you tease the Cowboys, the Giants, and the under in Patriots-Vikings. The Cowboys – you mean the Bills? The Cowboys, the Bills, and the Vikings? You tease the Cowboys, Bills, and the under in the night game. Huh.

Yeah, that's a nice play. I like that a lot. The problem is the Bills line right now is you're getting it three and a half on the tees. So you might have to take like seven-point tees to make the number better, which will put your odds at what, like probably plus 130 at that point. I'm actually going to look it up here. Let's see what I can get for that exact wager right now.

That's how I would play that. I have to write about the Bills and Lions for Fox Sports. I was like, I don't know. Yeah, it's an interesting one. I do Bills, Cowboys under 42.5, tees at a plus 120 for seven-point tees. I'm recording this through my phone or I'd look, but yeah, that seems like good play.

I mean, I also think you could just parlay the Moneyline favorites. I mean, public favorites on Thanksgiving tend to do super well, weirdly. Yes, I know. It's right. They do. Yeah, favorites and public favorites.

20-7 for the public favorite against the spread since 2004. Pretty good. Yes. It's days like Thanksgiving that make people think that they could successfully bet on football. for the public favorite against the spread since 2004. Pretty good. Yeah. It's days like Thanksgiving that make people think that they could successfully bet on football because they put in one bet a year, and it's like the Cowboys slay nine against the battered Giants,

and they're like, this is easy. One other wager that – how much – we have like $100 left in the pot still? I think so. Our last one was Parsonsons defensive player of the year no we no we we wager on it we had uh i could pull up right now we had other wagers we took um we took kenneth walker mv uh uh rookie of the year so the other ones we took were uh yeah kenneth

walker offensive rookie there miami won the division and oh yeah for how's that looking buddy how's that one looking at five to one the current leaders of the afc east and um so we yeah we have a hundred dollars left uh just confirmed i don't know this is i don't know hank put this in the thing or you did commies yes to make the playoffs giants no at plus 405 i love it really i do that was hank but i i mean it's mostly a giants fade the giants the giants have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL. Yeah, but couldn't you do a Giants, like, no playoffs? Let me see here.

So, here's the case. I want to talk about the Giants quickly. The Giants no playoffs are at 150, plus 155. Like, the commies part of this is the hard part. Not the Giants. It is. So, let's break them into pieces here. So, the Giants, of this is the hard part. Not the Giants. It is. So let's break them into pieces here.

So the Giants, they go to Dallas this week. Probably a loss. Then they have the Commanders at home the following week. Might be a hard-fought game. Who knows? Call it a game. Yeah, the Giants have seven wins. They're going to be lucky to get to 10. I think, dude, I think they might be lucky to get to nine.

Yeah. So they have the Cowboys. Probably a loss. They have, dude, I think they might be lucky, lucky to get to nine. Yeah. So they have the, they have the Cowboys probably lost. They have the commanders say they win that. Then they have the Eagles. Then they have the commanders on the road as the commanders come off a pie. So those are probably two more losses. Then they're at the Vikings.

They have the Colts at home and then they're at the Eagles. So like maybe you get two more wins in there. And if Washington beats Atlanta this week and splits those against the then they're at the eagles so like maybe you get two more wins in there and if washington beats atlanta this week and splits those against the giants then they'd be to eight and like they would kind of control their destiny i would think because what's going to end up happening is the giants the giants seahawks and washington are going to be fighting for those for the two two of those three teams will make the playoffs so i don't think it's unrealistic if we assume san francisco wins that division which they could or i mean

which they probably giants win totals at nine and a half right now wow that's come down a lot it's like dude if what if if saquon barkley misses two games like can they what's like can they do anything like i feel like they're hanging on by a complete thread. I'm fine with it. I mean, we got $100 left. Let's do it. Screw it. Or we could just say the Giants missed the playoffs.

I'm sure we could. Plus $155 is what I see on my website, which I'm fine with. I mean, I'd be fine laying it with that. Let's do that. Let's do that. How about we do that? Giants, no playoffs, plus $155. Done. Love that. Put that in, about we do that Giants no playoffs plus 155 done

love that put that in put that in 100 bucks we have no more money left unless we start counting our wins we're not doing that buddy

I texted you are we going to go 5-0 when we were 3-0 like 5-30 Eastern last week and we went 3-2

we learned our lesson alright everybody have a great Thanksgiving. Oh, by the way, 29-19 in Pac-12. Arizona, Washington State, Utah are the ones I like so far this weekend. Maybe the under in Oregon State, Oregon, depending on the status of our quarterback. Yeah, it's not like a Pac-12.

So we're doing that well again this season. All right, everyone. Have a great Thanksgiving. Glad to know that the FIFA referees speak English. I learned something new today. Hopefully you did too. Have a great Thanksgiving. Take care care everybody.