Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 13 (Plus CFB Championship Picks)

Episode Date: December 1, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back after a tough Week 12 to share their five best bets for the 13th week of the NFL season. The boys have some good learns from the first two thirds of the season, and they're trusting the process to make them some money down the stretch. There are some great games on tap for Sunday, so tune in for betting analysis and more, plus Geoff's leans on all P5 conference championship games.If you enjoyed the episode, leave a rating or a comment to let us know. If you want Geoff's picks for the MAC, Sun Belt, or any other CFB game this weekend he didn't cover, tweet @geoffschwartz to let him know he owes you.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday december 1st i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this jeff schwartz is smart you power by the varsity podcast network we're back with our weekend wagering preview we go through all the nfl games and i believe all the teams are playing this weekend so a lot of nfl go through and also on the back end i'll give you my picks for the five um power five conference championship games this weekend they're all this weekend, Friday and Saturday. So we'll talk about those. Get yourself prepared for a big game of the weekend. Matt, we're back to 30-28-2 after a 1-4 week.

We won Thursday night, and then we weren't even really close on Saturday. It was Sunday. It was a bad weekend for us, but we'll fight right back, tooth and nail, get you guys some more wins, and I'm ready to get after it. that's why you know it's appropriate on thanksgiving week we did terribly

but luckily just like a lot of people after thanksgiving we had a lot of pad we had a big sort of bloated record where we're a lot over 500 and now we're still over 500 jeff let's get let's let's get back into the win column this week. I feel like this is a pretty good slate. We can certainly do that. It's an interesting slate this week. Some good numbers. I think there's a couple teams.

We're just going to have to do it, suck it up and wager on them. We'll have our disagreements as usual. There's a great teaser that I'll put together for you guys I like this week so we can avoid wager on some of these teams. We can put them in a tease um let's hit the thursday night football i'm curious if you have an opinion on this one yeah interesting i so much depends on the number which keeps changing yeah uh bills patriots both coming off thanksgiving games in in foxborough somewhere between four five five and a half uh

the bills are favorites on the road. Man, I mean, it would be the Bills, right? It would have to be the Bills here because the Patriots just can't score. But, you know, this is, and they're both off the same amount of rest. They both play on Thanksgiving. But I don't, like, Buffalo doesn't feel as trustworthy this season.

I mean, last year there was a high variance with them as well. But, you know, they're 23rd in variance again. Like they're kind of a different team each week. And I kind of worry about that when, you know, they're playing the Patriots that seem to be the same team each week, just maybe not a great team each week, right? So this, for some reason, steams down to like three and a half i would buy half a point in buffalo at that point right and minus three but i mean we would almost never and we got burned last week taking

road favorites that's our fault like that was our fault again taking road favorites of four and three and a half does just sometimes aren't the wisest wagers to take and um i think we have to be off of this right now i mean especially after we got burned last week with what we took we only take one road favorite last week we took we took um let me know we had well we had tampa's a road favorite right and they didn't cover and we had um baltimore so yeah we were oh for two in the two road favorites we took, which again is not typically what we do very often on this show. Yeah.

Well, Buffalo, I think if anything, we're actually catching them a little undervalued. I think people haven't. I think Josh Allen is a little, is in better condition than people think. The thing with the Patriots this season, he does have a lot of turnovers,

but they haven't seemed, I mean, look, they're Buffalo. They're going to win tough games. The thing with the Patriots this year, the quarterbacks that they've beaten are Trubisky. I'm just doing this based off their schedule, so I might get one wrong. Trubisky, Goff, Brissett, Zach Wilson twice, and I believe Sam Ellinger in his last start where then Frank Wright got fired. They've lost to Cousins, Fields, Tua, Rogers, Lamar.

So whenever they go against, they're good against bad teams, but I do not trust them against this good of an offense. Having said that, not a great spot. I don't see a ton of value here unless we can – there is a three and a half out there for Buffalo that's kind of juicy. Yeah, I think at that point you just buy down and take Buffalo at minus three, 120, right?

That's what you would do. By the way, we're not World Cup fans. Well, I mean, you go Team USA, of course. Messi just got to denied on a PK. Really? Yeah. Wow. Goalie.

I watched yesterday, by the way, as we're recording this on Wednesday, I was at a friend's house with three soccer fans. I was just clueless. I was like, go team. Be aggressive. Shoot more.

Let's score. Come on. I mean, we know how American is it to take a knee to the groin but have a game-winning goal at the same time? I mean, come on. Go team. Go team.

Let's go team USA. I mean, how excruciating was it watching them have to defend that lead for that long? It's just like there's nothing like it in football. Well, no, there is. I watched it happen last weekend. I watched Oregon blow a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter. I watched it happen last weekend. When you stop being aggressive, you get your ass kicked.

And like USA, again, soccer novice. Don't get me wrong. But like in the first half, USA was attacking, right? Attacking, attacking, attacking. The second half, they didn't attack. Like just do this. Yeah, you might allow a goal, but you almost allowed a goal doing this prevent defense thing. I agree.

There's your soccer interlude in the middle of our Thursday football contest. But soccer, the Netherlands, though, and the U.S. play Saturday, I think 10 a.m. Eastern. Are you putting a – No, Hank, we're not going to substitution patterns, okay, buddy? Hank gets those notes, by the way. He's talking about substitution stuff. That's above my pay grade buddy

do you vote are you gonna wager on this game matt it's on saturday morning i might you know that's at 6 a.m pacific and i'm i'm doing the like what time am i really getting up for it like am i am i like gonna be in front of the tv at 6 a.m i don't know off is like a 11 or 12 p uh Am I wrong? I heard it was at 9. Maybe Hank can tell us. Do you remember? It's always an hour later, and I think they list it because of the pregame stuff.

Oh, interesting. Okay. Yeah. Well, hopefully I'll be awake for it. Okay. But I got to say. I'm going to Moneyline USA because why not? Go country.

Why not? We'll get a nice number on it. I took, as an emotional hedge, I took draw because it was plus 300. And I was like, you know what? Like, if we draw and lose, maybe, you know, that would soften the blow. I don't do that. But I think I reversed jinx the U.S., you know? I think it's mostly my credit.

Okay. How do you guys emotionally hedge? I can't do that. Like, for example, I could have taken Oregon State plus the three. That's probably the better wager to take. sharps were hammering or that number right um even got down to like pick them by kickoff but i would feel so bad if we lost and i won the money i'd be like well this is stupid i want to lose and be miserable i know yeah and be like oh like i think we can uh we can put it on the table here we're're not betting big unit sizes here, right?

So it's not like a $25 win would have been like so life-changing that the thing that ruined my day would just go out the window. I'm with you. Go USA. I think they'll be an overbet underdog, but we'll both be on it. They were against Iran. There was like 90% of the money was on USA Moneyline. money line yeah obviously it's like everyone just wants to whatever everyone just wants to get in there um okay so we're gonna pass on this it sounds like for thursday for sunday god what a good slate this week uh titans eagles is how we'll start uh the titans right now this

has moved a ton so i want to make sure i get it right it's five five and a half yeah five and a half right now yeah for all right so this is the this is a game that will test the way we've picked games this year right because we have sort of not used trends as often in games but this is one right here where Mike Vrabel getting more than three points is 17-7 against the spread. You have a Tennessee team that runs the ball well. Jordan Davis might be back for the Eagles. That'll help their rushing defense, but they're number one in the NFL in DVOA. The Titans are a rushing defense, right? This will be a defensive-minded game. If you get enough from Ryan Tannehill, and Derrick Henry typically has bounce-back games at 38 yards against the Bengals.

Normally, next weekend, he has a lot more, right? So, Tennessee plus 5.5 is the only wager to go, in my opinion, on this game. But I don't feel great about it. It might be one of those where you just hold your nose and take Tennessee in this spot. But they don't score points. It's hard to bet on a team on the road that you know you have to hold eagles to like 24 to cover 20 to cover i mean the titans just don't score really yeah it's a concern but like every single game the titans have played have they're close

all the time like they lost by four last week they moved the ball pretty well last week i felt like every time they were up on red zone it was like tannahill converting another first down they seem to have found something in the passing game a little bit i mean they've had one blowout loss to buffalo in the beginning of the season but every week they just fight like they never make it easy on the other side i think this is just a good number and it's you know i agree like you said it's just you can't really overthink it the only thing that's just kind of strange is like is just why it was set it was why this has moved so much it just seems a little bit strange like i

maybe ever maybe the eagles are so public that the vegas is just convinced people are just going to hammer them but this just feels like such an obvious titans play that it's kind of freaking me out so do you follow ben baldwin on on twitter computer cowboy he's really good he's really good um with a lot of the numbers and he does a thing each week called market derived team tiers and he basically just looks at the odds each week and the odds throughout the season and determines tiers and he basically so like for example Super Bowl or bus tier is can't is Buffalo Kansas City the Niners and the Cowboys and he kind of puts a number next to each of them so like if Buffalo Kansas City put a neutral field the point spread should be a point because 7.3 is Buffalo and 6.4 is Kansas City so the Titans and

Eagles are within four and a half points of each other. So that's maybe why, and I guess this is kind of sort of how people gamble that do this professionally, right? They have power rankings and they say, oh, well, my power ranking shows this team should be here and this team should be there. And I think the number opened up so big, it did not fit the power rankings of most pros and therefore the number got bet down pretty quickly. It's open at seven, right?

Six and a half, seven? And they just got bet down quickly because that's a big number for a team, as you said, that's kept a lot of things close. Yeah, I agree. That's interesting context, and it sounds like you're right. I mean, we should say these stats. We talked about the trends.

We alluded to them. Mike Vrabel is incredible as an underdog um he's 16 and 10 straight up as an underdog of under of more than a field goal um he's 11 5 and 1 against the spread after a straight up loss with tannahill so it's always we love mike rabel as a dog we love him getting over three philly by the way just like hasn't looked quite as dominant the last couple weeks i you know i think they've they've gotten exposed a little best running back in football against a pretty bad defensive line so i think you just got to do it even if even if we're not in love with it but you know maybe it'll maybe it'll shake out our way okay all right moving on to a game i don't think we can possibly bet at this stage of the week

packers bears as we record this we don't think we can possibly bet at this stage of the week. Packers-Bears. As we record this, we don't know who either quarterback is going to be. The Packerling for – should we just save time here? Yeah, we're not doing this right now. Roger says he's going to play. We don't know what Bears quarterback is going to play. So I think this is just a – it's just a stay away from me. It really is.

Yeah. I mean, what a chance they could have to play Jordan Love here. They should. But by the way, the Packers should absolutely sit Aaron Rodgers for the rest of the season and play Jordan Love. Not a hot take. 100%. Just play Jordan Love.

Your season's over. Play Jordan Love. Yeah, and see what you've got. And people are like, well, you can't get off the Rodgers deal. It's like, maybe you can. Who knows? And the NFL is unbelievably unpredictable. Anything can happen.

See what you've got. It would be negligent can't. Who knows? The NFL is unbelievably unpredictable. Anything can happen. See what you've got. It would be negligent not to. Agreed. Especially because it's like, oh, then Rodgers looks amazing and beats the Bears. We always beat. It's like, great. Cool outcome. Okay.

Maybe the most fun game of the week, even if it's not the two best teams. The Jags are going to Detroit to play the Lions. The Lions are home dogs. This opens. The Lions were short home favorites full disclosure i took them at minus one as a home as a home team so i'm gonna be convincing you here what side are you on this all in the lions plus one and a half um absolutely yeah absolutely um look i don't know whether last weekend was the ravens blowing it again or Jacksonville winning the game.

There's a little combination of both in those. But the Lions score a ton of points, man. They are a feisty team. They are feisty on offense. Defensively, they're not terribly great, but Jacksonville hasn't shown a great ability this year to kind of dominate themselves, dominate the opponent on offense. By the way, on offense this year, Detroit is ranked 12th, Jacksonville 14th.

So they're kind of very close in that category. But again, I don't think anyone looks at Jacksonville and thinks like, man, they're dominating a Lions team like this, right? Their defense, Jacksonville is 26th in the NFL, Detroit's is 24th. So they're kind of evenly together. But the Lions get a little more rest

and there's just a good number because I think if these teams were to play last week the number is much different but because of Jacksonville's win we've kind of changed our tune on what the number should be yeah and how quickly we forget with the Lions I mean the Lions basically had Buffalo beat at home and they get the extra rest here. Not to mention the Jags. Talk about bad on the road. They have one road win since week 14 of 2019.

They just don't win on the road. So like maybe bad job by us betting them as a home dog last week. Let's go see them as road favorites. Take out a team that just almost beat Buffalo at home with extra rest dan campbell and his career they've they've won and covered this is second or third year they've covered in

one the last two after thanksgiving um i just think this is an absolute hammer spot for detroit i feel like especially if you're getting you're getting points with them now it's unbelievable agreed i'm with you all right so we got one've got one in there. We've got two in there, actually. Two, yes. Probably, with the Titans. We'll see if that lasts. A game that is going to be on TV a lot that not a lot of people are going to be happy about is the Deshaun Watson Bowl. He is going back to Houston

as a seven-point road favorite for the Browns. I don't know how anyone on Earth could bet the Browns, not knowing what he's going to play like. I don't know how anyone on Earth can bet the terrible Texans. Yeah. Like, the terrible Texans. Yeah. Like, the Texans stink. They're really, really bad. Like, they're not – they're just not good.

They're not even, like, the adventure quarterback. Now, they almost made a furious comeback to cover against the Dolphins last weekend. They did. They almost did it. But that's more, I think, the Dolphins just saying, like, hey, we're done. How about this? In the first half of their last two losses to Washington and Miami,

Texans have been outscored 50-0 and outgained 533-37. They've had four first downs to opponents who have had 33 first downs. Like, they're just not good. And I think that any other spot, we would love to take a seven-point underdog against a quarterback who hasn't played in an NFL game

in like two years. But not in this spot. Yeah. Pick and pulls, take Texans. I can't imagine actually putting, you know, something with real stakes on this. I will say the great stat here by Hank, I actually am having a hard time believing it. Home underdogs of a touchdown this season are 7-0 against the spread.

That's kind of amazing. So this would be right on the cusp. But this is the one game where you're like, yeah, this trend is not going to last. Yeah, I agree. I'm surprised by that. I feel like we've rarely been on the right side of that to be honest um yeah i think yeah i mean i think houston is so much worse than the second worst team that it's just too hard to trust them this does feel like it could kind of be their

super bowl so maybe they show up and you know they really give it to watson but maybe not like we've seen that in you know other sports too so i yeah i think this is a pass for us um because we just can't we can't take houston we're better than that um jets vikings fascinating game uh the vikings are now up to three point home favorites although that's plus 100 so you probably get a two and a half somewhere so we talked on monday and we did we did our show and this is one you liked the Vikings I don't know if I like them that much the more I kind of dug into this game

like I just the Jets I think believe in themselves with Mike White now and I do not expect Mike White to have the same game like it's a better opponent than the Bears

but this is like I just think the Jets defense is really going to disrupt the Vikings in this game and I don't feel great disrupt the Vikings in this game. And I don't feel great about the Vikings in this spot. Yeah. Yeah, we can pass it. I think the Derrissaw injury is still really looming on Minnesota.

I do think, though, that this is like an unbelievable look. I mean, there's a lot of smart guys out there who are going to be on the Jets. But this feels incredibly disrespectful to Minnesota. Like now Mike White's got to go on the road, face the team that's nine and two. He's got to throw to Patrick Peterson. He's got to deal with a really loud crowd that's going for home field in the NFC. Like this is not a big number. field in the nfc like this is not a big number three points for for a nine and two team against mike white on the road feels like kind of an autoplay to me like we just are we overthinking

this like i don't know i mean i i don't know like they've the jets have been great on the road this season they've covered four out of five um the vikings are one of those teams i'll put them in the maybes just in case you know things don't shake out on this episode like we think yeah yeah let's see i they're they're worth passing through because i mean if you just like i i guess this is just like hey the jet we just believe in the jets defense so much it's like okay like let's see sauce gardner against justin jefferson like let's see how good he is so you know i i feel like one on like just one on one across the board it's like the vikings have the better quarterback they're at home they have a

amazing offense like i don't know okay that's a long way of saying maybe moving on to uh the steelers through the one week we didn't bet them, they, of course, covered. They play the Falcons in Atlanta. Well, our favorite fading person to fade had the Colts and the over. I mean, the under. So I just took the over and I took the Steelers. Just blindly. It was great.

Parlay. Lock it up. Yeah. No, just nothing about this excites me at all. I mean, I think you take Pittsburgh here, but they play a short money football. They look bad in the second half of that game. So sorry, Steelers and Falcons fans.

I will say Kenny Pickett is interesting. He's got kind of enough to him where you think like, oh, okay, I could see like there's something there yep a little bit um but not really like uh enough to feel great about wagering them in this spot i agree it helps to have george pickens sitting around i mean that guy is every week i text you like this guy's amazing um yeah i think i would probably lead falcons here just because i think the falcons like they're not bad and they can certainly run the ball like they they kind of get in their own way a lot um but yeah this is a pass

i don't see a great angle either way uh broncos ravens man what has happened to both of these teams somehow the ravens are still laying eight and a half or even nine. I don't know if I can do it, man. No, no, no. We're not. This is the first teaser leg. You just took the Ravens in a teaser and just hope that they don't blow another lead. Right? Like that's how you do this game.

Yeah, two and a half. Two and a half or you get them at nine, you put them in at three and just hope that they win by more than three. There was a report today. Did you see the Russell Wilson party thing? They were like half the team showed up to a birthday party of his. Oh, my God. But like in the middle of the season, though,

I'm going to be a little contrarian here. That's about right. Like in the middle of the season. Yeah, you're not getting – Unless it's a team function. Okay. Who on the – Just on the defense.

How many guys are showing up to a Russell Wilson party? Right. Not many. Is Brandon McManus showing up? And then it's in the middle of the season. Things aren't going well. Like if you're 8-2, you get more people at the event. Like I don't think this is that big of a deal.

But it's great for obviously social media. You know, great for Bo Callahan from Draft Day. You know, the best, the greatest, best movie, worst movie of all time. What a movie. So, yeah, let's just, we'll pass on this game. Ravens, we talked about. They're 7-4 with four losses

where they had a win percentage of, what, over 90% in the second half of that game. So, have been great. I was looking, by the way, at our futures the other day, and I texted you about this. We're going to probably be on track if we hit on a couple of these. It'd be nice. Like, you know, Panthers over 6.5 will help us a little bit.

But our Broncos wagers were – our AFC West wagers were the best. We're going to go probably five for six on those. What did we have? Devereux playoffs, Wilson under 4,100 yards. Wow, that one is – And we put 300 on Devereux playoffs plus 120. Ooh, let's go. Look at us.

So, like I said, if we hit – 4,100 pass yards. If we hit our – Especially if we hit our in-season wagers that we have. Hank, we need to find what we bet on Parsons to win defensive point. I think it was plus 400. We're going to be sitting pretty to make some money. All right, let's move on to the hot commanders

at the New York Football Giants. Yeah, the commanders are two-and- point road favorites at metlife um yeah just no for either side of this one giants are coming back to earth man we have told you and it happened a little bit later i thought it would um i have them heavily wagered into them not making the playoffs this season after their fast start i think they're not making the playoffs like everything's falling apart they're injured they're not playing as well no I think they're not making the playoffs. Everything's falling apart. They're injured. They're not playing as well.

No surprise. They're not a great team when everyone's hurt. And then Washington just keeps doing enough each week. And you texted me during that game on Sunday. I was like, man, Washington just – Taylor Heineken just didn't have a good game, but the team is kind of rallying around him, and they're doing it with their defense. I mean, I think if you asked me to pick this one, I would take commanders,

but I think we're laying off some of those road favorites this week. You're not going to believe this. I actually kind of like the Giants. Really? I think partially, yeah. I mean, Washington's luck has been amazing. I mean, last week they won that game off of a batted interception in the end zone where the Falcons could have,

I think nine out of ten times they probably score there. Maybe Heineke would add a little bit of time left. The Eagles game was closer than it ended up being, obviously. The Colts game they could have lost. The Packers game they could have lost. The Bears game they could have lost. I feel like this line kind of stood out to me where i was like oh boy and keep in mind that we've a lot of people have talked about this washington goes into their buy next week and then as the giants at home on the other side of it so if if either team is like

really circling this game the giants have to have this one right like washington they get a rest and then they get to come back they've been hot yeah but they have to have this one, right? Like Washington, they get a rest and then they get to come back. They've been hot. Yeah, but they have to have it. But they might not be good enough to have to have it. You know what I mean? Like it sounds great to say that, but are they good enough to win a game when they have to have it right now? That's why I think you don't take the Giants.

Yeah. I mean, I think that's fair. The only thing I might say is like the – people have had success running against Washington. Like that's been – it happened last week. Like Atlanta was able to hit the ball pretty well. It doesn't seem – the Giants are just so banged up and so written off that I feel like this is kind of a good value spot for them. But if you were on the commanders,

like I'm not going to force us to bet against them. I don't feel great about the Giants in this one because there's other ones I feel better about. Okay. By the way, if you love them, I'll put them in. We kind of have that rule now. But if you don't, then we'll stay away. I don't know.

Let's maybe put it in our maybes and at least cross it off. Let's see how we're doing here. We're not even through the ones and we have plenty. right dolphins at 49ers the mike mcdaniel ball yeah man this is a this is gonna be a fun game the 49ers land four um god i love the dolphins i really do wait in this in this game i do what's wrong with me i don't okay tell me why okay their last five wins. You ready? Yeah. I'll make sure I have the right quarterback on this one here.

Okay, you ready? Okay. Okay. Murderer's Row. Okay. Kenny Pickett. Jared Goff. Justin Fields.

Jacoby Bursette. Kyle Allen. Who? Who? Wow. Now Jimmyhuh. Ooh. Ooh. Wow. Now Jimmy Garoppolo. Well, now Jimmy Garoppolo, though, with an offense that is far better than anything they have faced the entire five weeks on this winning streak.

And they won games by six, four, three, and had two straight blowouts with the Browns and the Texans coming back late. The Niners offensively, they are 10th in DVOA, fifth on defense. Miami's second in DVOA on offense, 17th. They're 31st in special teams, by the way. Four is a big number, but this number is moving.

It was three and a half, and there's no money on the Niners. This feels like sharps are hammering san francisco here christian mccaffrey out of practice today so that kind of worries me kyle shanahan knows mike mcdaniel he's also awful as a favorite so and there's you know like you knew it was coming yeah so i i I like the Niners here, I think, but I don't like them enough to take them in this spot. But you really like the Dolphins here? Like, this is the first, like, real defense they've played in a long time.

Like, an actual, like, they've played, again, In a long time. Like an actual. Like they've played. Again. They played. The Texans. Browns.

Bears. Lions. The last five weeks. Pittsburgh's defense is probably the best. They're 14th. But then you have. Cleveland is 29. Houston's 27.

Detroit's 24. Again. I just think they haven't played anybody, and this is going to be the first time in a while now they've played someone who can kind of punch them back in the mouth. Yeah, I hear all that. I don't think we'll end up agreeing on this because I think the – you could probably say the same about the 49ers with the Dolphins offense. Like the Dolphins offense is a completely unique beast like

um Tua this year Tua in his career 9-4-1 against the spread as an underdog this season they're 6-2 against the spread and they haven't lost obviously uh with Tua it's the starter where he's played the full game Dolphins love Dolphins love tackles out by the way for this game oh that's tough uh that uh uh Kyleyle shanahan 918 and one against the spread is a home favorite and that's with covering six of his last seven which is pretty remarkable i'm sorry very quickly armstead is gonna try to play unlikely and the right tackles also out dolphins yeah that's tough with that with that pass rush um let me just look here so the 49ers last week were fortunate to get out of that saints game with a cover um the 49ers

let's see they blew out the cardinals beat the chargers blew out the dead rams got killed by the chiefs got killed by the falcons They're just an up and down team. And I just feel like a four point number for an offense. This good. It's not like a brutal place to go play. It, it, it caught my attention.

I definitely wouldn't be on the 49ers, but I just, I don't know what it is. I miss like, I can't shake the dolphins. They're just so fun. I know. I get it.

I understand. Yeah. All right. That's a fun. I know. I get it. I understand. Yeah. All right. That's a pass. This one will be a pass too. The Seahawks at the Rams. I don't know how anyone could bet on the Rams, but they're 7.5 or maybe even 8-point home dogs here.

Arizona. Excuse me, Arizona. Aaron Donald out for this game. First game of his career he's going to miss. I told you the Ravens were the first leg of a parlay. Seattle's the second leg. Excuse me, a teaser.

Seattle's the second leg of a teaser. Yeah, that's a good teaser. Yeah. Everyone's going to bet Seattle or the Rams are dead in the water, but Seattle's not played

well the last two games. They feel like they're coming back to earth a little bit. I mean, absolutely cannot take the Seahawks in this spot. No chance.

Yep. That's just a pass. I like that teaser idea. That's a good one. Okay, we're finally onto the late window here. Everyone loves this spot. No chance. Yep. That's just a pass. I like that teaser idea. That's a good one. We're finally on to the late window here. Everyone loves this game. I just want to... Go ahead. Sorry. My third team in that teaser

is the Lions. Ravens. Seven. Ravens. Seahawks. Lions. Three-team teaser. That's a tasty one. I'm going to preface this by saying everyone in the world is on the raiders which is blowing me away but they are one and a half point home dogs to justin herbert and the chargers i guess people

like i mean the raiders the raiders are a pretty good team it seems like they just can't win and they just they have asinine decision making. But this feels a little disrespectful to the Chargers, but I think I'm done with the Chargers. Yeah, Raiders two straight walk-off wins. The Chargers are just untrustworthy. It's just really hard to wager on them. I'm with you. They're not getting the respect.

But, geez. To me, the Chargers are the side, too like i'm with you on that i do agree with you there but i just can't do it i can't take the raiders for the same reason like talk about not trustworthy i feel like that's one where they the chargers could be at 30 to nothing and you'd be like uh what the hell were we thinking they just haven't they just i don't know what's up with that team it's it seems to be pretty clear that it's a coaching problem absolutely on both sides absolutely all right let's pass on that i'm pretty sure you're gonna have an opinion here uh the chiefs are road favorites at cincy one and a half up to two or two and a half for the for the chiefs

when mahomes is the favorite of three or less, he's 17-5 and one against the spread. So I'll give you a couple things here. I wrote about this game for Fox Sports today. I love two things about this game before I get to the side, really. Chiefs, team total first half over 13.5. And just the first half over is 26. The Chiefs have waited for this game. What's today?

November 30th. I don't know. What's the 11th month of the year? 11 months to play this game, right? Like, this is the game that they spent their whole offseason getting ready for. We're going to see the best of an Andy Reid game plan and the best of Pat Mahomes. Now, I can't promise you they're going to stop anybody. They'll stop Jamar Chase, who should be coming back,

and Joe Burrow. But I do feel like we're going to see the best of the Chiefs in this game. When they have showed us this season the best, they've dominated Tampa and the Niners, and they beat the Chargers twice this season. They're showing the best of what they can be. It feels hard to pass on Mahomes as a one and a half point favorite but um i don't know if i feel great about doing that in this uh in this in this space right now i know because since he i mean it looks like chase is

probably going to be back that's what you think as of now. We don't know about Mixon, but maybe he'll play too. Cincy's good, man. I know your points are all well taken, but Cincy has been scorching hot with the exception of that weird Monday night loss to the Browns. Are they going to beat the Chiefs three straight times in a calendar year? I don't think so. The thing is, this like are the chiefs like the chiefs this is this is why they're so frustrating is sometimes they just kind of lollygag around this time of the year yeah but yeah we're not into whatever that against

the rams which i did on sunday yeah still don't do it in these games that's true um i'm man i actually think i'm okay taking the chiefs it's not it's not my favorite um but i do think i do think that the bangles are probably a tiny bit overvalued just based on like who they've beaten um there everyone just is going to sort of take that shortcut of like oh burrow chase like they got this and you're right like To win three straight would be pretty remarkable. It's going to be outside. The fans are going to be hot. The weather should be pretty decent, actually, for this game,

which will be good. Yeah. We flipped the calendar over to December, where Mahomes is suddenly mortal, sort of 32-4 in November and December in his career. That's pretty amazing. Undefeated in November and December in his career. That's pretty amazing. Undefeated in November and December. Unreal.

Yeah. Maybe I'm just emotionally picking the Chiefs here, but I'm just telling you, man, this is the game they've been waiting. It's the game. I saw Pat Mahomes' trainer on Twitter Sunday night be like, now it's time to play. This is the game we're waiting to play all year long. This is like they're ready for it.

Yeah. Okay. Let's at least put it through. I don't know how many. How many do we have right now? Like five or six? We only have five right now. Okay.

So, yeah, let's definitely put it through. Well, no. Kansas City's our fifth. Kansas City's our fifth. Yeah. So, let's definitely have it in the mix. Okay, Colts-Cowboys, 10.5 points on Sunday night for the Cowboys. Man.

Hey, good news. Good news, Colts fans. Your timeout's rolled over. so you didn't use them last week they're ready to go this week um this is a classic cowboys like bullshit game isn't it yeah 100 but i'm also not taking the colts plus 10 and a half so um this is such a classic cowboys shoot themselves in the foot a hundred times game and still win by three, you know, like because the Colts aren't very good right now. Yeah. I mean, there's no chance to play this Matt Ryan like driving down 17 and we're like, oh, this game's over.

There's like 14 minutes left. They scored two touchdowns. Suddenly it's like everyone. Everyone's busted. I agree, buddy. Extra rest for Dallas. Short week for the Colts. We can't lay it with Dallas.

No chance. No, you can't. I don't think you can even tease them. Because you tease them at four and a half. There's a bad number. I don't even want to watch that game. All right. Well, no.

The thing to do is I'm gonna i'm gonna text you the wagers of the person we fade and whatever that person does we'll just take the opposite and that person is gonna love dallas aren't they a hundred percent that's the squarest play possible and that's the worst thing we have to take the colts plus ten and a half but when you're not doing that you've made so much money doing this hey broken clock maybe maybe this is the week to lay off. The problem is that person is going to also take the bucks minus three and a half on Monday night.

I'm going to maybe be on the same side of them. Yeah. Huge game for Tampa. They've got to win this game. Three and a half point favorites against Tom Brady's kryptonite, the Saints. Sounds like you're on Tampa here. I'm on Tampa because the Saints

aren't very good hot take alert sorry to break it to you but the Saints aren't good and they're not playing good football they just lost 13-0 they beat the broken down Rams we had them in that game right? lost to Steelers lost to Ravens

shut out the Raiders weird game but they've also played a lot kind of better at home this year, right? And so the road games have been lost the Niners, lost the Steelers, lost the Cardinals, lost the Panthers, beat the Falcons in week one. Those are their road games so far this season. Again, lost the Niners, lost the Niners by 13, lost the Steelers by 10, Cardinals by 8, Panthers by

18. Panthers by 8, and then... 18, dude. 21-3. Let's remember that was the Mike Evans game where he dropped that touchdown and they just fell apart. Which one? The Tampa Carolina game. That's what you're talking about, right? No, no, no. Oh, you're talking about the Saints. I'm talking about the Saints on the road.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I got it, got it, got it. Now, the Tampa game on the road, yeah, Mike Evans just dropped that pass, and that was like the end of the – The problem with the Bucs is that, like, I just despise their offensive design and the way they call their offense. And they just don't score points. They scored 17, 21, 16, 22, 3, 18, 21, 31, 12, 20, and 19.

Like, I would love if this was 3, not 3.5, and they obviously know that. That's why they put that there. But, like, dude, I hate this thing. I hate the Bucs in this spot. Do you like them? I want to. I think the Tristan Wirfs thing is huge.

He's not playing, yeah. Yeah, Brady's, I don't think, ever played without him in Tampa. Cam Jordan's going to probably have a really nice day. This has always been the team Brady struggled with. Correct. He exercised those demons earlier in the season. But he still didn't play well. No, he didn't.

So I feel like, and yeah, if this was a two and a half, I'd be all over it. A three and a half, I just feel like it's a pass. So going back to that first game, if you remember, it was Tampa was up 10-3 in the fourth quarter. And then they picked off a ball, got a field goal, and then had an interception for a touchdown to make it 20-3. Like, Tom didn't play well.

He was 18-34 for 190 yards, which is the way he always plays against the Saints. So I don't terribly like the Bucs in the spot, but I kind of feel like they could win by 7 to 10 to 14 with ease in this game. But they haven't shown the ability to really play up to their capability each week. So I think this one's out. So we've got our five, but I feel like we're i feel like we're not thrilled with our five well no we no we had tennessee detroit minnesota and kc we like we

love those right yeah feel good about them the kc one is it's the one i'm shakiest but i'm buying it sure i'm shaking on it too um and the last one was the giants which you like so i'm i mean i've said i like i'll take your the plays that you like i mean what about so i can't talk you into uh the dolphins right i mean i guess you can is that you like that better than giants here's a great staff from raybon uh from action network our friend chris raybon just want to give him a full shout out uh san francisco has faced the fourth easiest slate of opposing offenses by DVOA. Miami's offense number two in DVOA,

including Teddy and Skyler. It's unreal. Their offense is just a totally different animal. I mean, I guess if the choices are the Giants plus the points or Dolphins, we're going to take the Dolphins. Right? Up to you.

I'm comfortable with either. I do think that Commander's luck is going to run out at some point, but maybe it's not this week. I mean, the Giants are absolutely tattered also. It's like, are they really going to come in and get a win against a team that's been unstoppable?

I don't know. What do you think? I mean, you didn't like either. You were on the wrong side of either of those. So if you tell me to just make a pick. I will. Well yeah. Who would you rather have?

You'd rather have Miami I feel like. Yeah. Better team. Plus four. I just think the Niners. They just seem like frauds to me. Everyone just pencils them in for the Super Bowl every year. And it's like.

They can't win a game if they're losing in the second half like they just have they yeah no you're right i don't understand okay look i'm i'm not disappointed with it i've said that if i we couldn't come with five i'll take your favorite each week it's worked out for us well this season so i'm gonna have to just sit here and watch the Dolphins try to cover that game on Sunday afternoon. Or you want to take your New York Giants. No, I don't want the Giants. You've gotten out here. I'd much rather have the Dolphins in this spot than the Niners.

Okay. You could probably talk me into the Commanders if you really wanted. No. So Tennessee, Detroit, Minnesota, KC, Miami. I love this slate, dude. It's great. This is a nice vibe i like it we just need three we need three and two each week and we're good very quickly let me pull up the numbers ball preview for college football championship games this weekend um make sure i have up-to-date

numbers for you okay so friday is utah uscC. USC's here by two and a half. USC just keeps winning. They basically just keep winning because their quarterback is the Heisman winner. They could easily have all their luck run out in this game, right? Matt, they've played four ranked opponents so far this season as USC. They've played Oregon State in week four. They've played Utah, UCLA, and Notre Dame. They play Utah again. They played Oregon State in week four. They played Utah,

UCLA, and Notre Dame. They play Utah again. They lost Utah, remember, 43-42. What is their turnover margin against the four ranked teams

they played on their schedule? I'm going to say negative. Plus 11. Plus 11. Oh, right, because they won those games. Yeah. Wow.

God. Plus 11. Their turnover margin for the year is I games. Yeah. Wow. God. Plus 11. The turnover margin for the year is, I think, plus 22. Caleb Williams doesn't turn the ball over. Matt, if you had to guess, in 12 games this year, how many fumbles has USC lost? 12 games. A low number would be like six.

One. One. One. Yes. Oh, my God. That's so lucky. One fumble. One. Yes. Oh, my God. That's so lucky. One fumble. They lost one.

Oh, my gosh. That's crazy. What a great staff. One fumble. They turned it over four times. Part of that's because Caleb Williams is really good. He doesn't throw any sensible balls. If you could guess, Matt, they're in a conference championship game, okay?

Conference championship game. Yep. They're defensive points per drive for USC this season. There's 131 college football teams. Points per drive on defense for the team who is ranked fourth in the country. I mean, I couldn't even guess this in NFL. Like, what's like a good number? Well, I mean, there's 131 teams.

I mean, 60 average? It's just like, I don't know. Probably, right? It's about right? Sure right sure yeah well usc is 107th jeez and they forced 28 turnovers so it's like they i i so all this being said yeah but i keep i say that each week and they cover against notre dame they cover against ucla like they keep covering like i i keep betting against them and they keep just saying screw you schwartz i'm gonna keep positive regression keep you know be damned or negative regression be damned i'm thinking usc again they're the best player in this game and kayla williams it's that simple uh usc minus two and a half um even though if utah won it

wouldn't surprise me at all uh moving to Saturday, TCU, Kansas State. TCU's played by two and a half. TCU's like USC, but a little bit different, where they just keep doing enough to win each week. And then they just kicked the shit out of Iowa State last weekend. They won a game last weekend. I love, dude, this is why college football is the best, right? Okay. They won last weekend 62 to 14, okay?

Wow. With only 377 yards on 14. Okay. Wow. With only 377 yards on offense. That's unbelievable. It's like college football is the best. Oh, my God. It makes no sense. It just makes no sense whatsoever. Oh, my gosh.

That's insane. It doesn't make any sense. Just the stupidest sport of all time. So they keep doing it each week. And there's some mojo to them. They're playing Kansas State team, who they already beat by 10 so far this season. Kansas State's a run-first team. They deuce Vaughn and the ability for Adrian Martinez to use his legs.

It's what they do. I think they're a little tiny bit one-to-one dimensional. I will take TCU to cover the two-and-a-half. This game is in Dallas. It's for a playoff spot. I'll take the Horned Frogs basically playing a de facto home game in this situation. LSU, Georgia.

Georgia minus 17-and-a-half. One of my favorites of the week, Matt. Georgia this season, when they want to play, they kick your ass. It's pretty simple, right? They kicked Tennessee's ass. They kicked Oregon's ass. They kicked South Carolina, who's good now all of a sudden.

They kicked Florida's ass. They kicked Kentucky's ass. They want to beat you. They're going to beat you. And LSU on defense, not good enough to stay with them. So Georgia covers this game. Two more games left. Michigan is also going to kick the shit out of Purdue. That game is – Michigan's a 17-point favorite.

17 points. Yeah, they're going to kick the shit out of Purdue. It's a game that I think we're going to see almost like last year against Iowa that you just kind of slowly kind of bleed out Purdue. Like they're just, they're not good against the run. They're not good on third down on defense. They're not great against, they allow a ton of explosive plays, by the way, on defense.

They're just going to sort of like, just like bleed them out. I think that, and they wouldn't, you know, this game, you know, 37-17, something like that. I would, the one thing about this game, I feel17, something like that. The one thing about this game, I feel like you get a late cover by Purdue. Don't feel the same for LSU and Georgia. Last one, Clemson minus 7.5 here in Charlotte against North Carolina. I like North Carolina plus 7.5. I like the over even more in this game.

North Carolina can score with the best of them. Drake May will be a Heisman finalist this season, their quarterback. They also just can't stop a nosebleed, a sniffle. They're 111th in the country in points per drive on defense. And anyone they play that has a whiff of offensive power scores a ton of points on them. On the flip side, guys, Clemson's defense is very good, but against the better teams they played this year, not so good.

So they played, Matt, Clemson's defense is 14th of points per drive. They played three offenses this year that ranked in the top 34. They played the sixth best offense in Wake Forest. They allowed 45 points. They played Florida State, who's 34th on offense, and they allowed 28 points. And then last weekend, they allowed 31 points to South Carolina, who's the 31st ranked offense.

North Carolina's 11th. They're going to move the ball. To me, this is an over game, over 63 and a half. That's how I'd play this one. If you want to decide north carolina plus a seven and a half is the way to go here uh hope hope you're ready for the championship weekend i mean there's i'm not giving you ucf to lane sorry guys you're not getting that on this show you're not getting i mean buffalo akron god bless the mac not happening north texas utsa

play as well toledo and ohio uh of course, Valparaiso, New Mexico State. Go at it. Of course. Coastal and Troy. Fresno and Boise. But yeah, I'll take those five games for you. Hope you guys enjoyed it. Our five on the NFL.

One more mention. Tennessee, Detroit, Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami. Have a great weekend, everyone. We'll be back next week to talk more more about football and maybe we'll have some more soccer takes who knows we'll find out we'll see man go USA 10 a.m. Saturday is correct

yeah I can sleep until 645 let's go sorry for your kidless weekends where you have to wake up a little bit before you want to sorry yeah my Saturdays usually are like wake up around 8 30 uh go to a workout class go to farmer's market take a hike yeah i remember when i had no kids too sounds nice that's why you just wake up whenever you want you can't just do whatever you want so yeah still i'm tired all the time anyway i'm not sure what the deal is

eight and a half years ago all right everyone have a great weekend