Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 14

Episode Date: December 8, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back to share their five best wagers for week 14 of the NFL season. The boys are sitting. at 32-31-2 on the season, and they're looking for a big week to put them squarely ...in the green for the stretch run. Tune in to hear them break down the spread of every game on tap for this weekend, plus Geoff gives his early read on some lines for the college football playoff.Be sure to leave a comment or a rating to let us know if you enjoyed the pod, and follow to get notified when new episodes drop every Tuesday and Thursday during the season. Thanks for listening!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 it's thursday december 8th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz of smart new powered by the varsity podcast network it's our weekend wagering preview we need to bounce back matt two bad weeks in a row we now sit at 32 31 and 2 so we need a little bit of bounce back this week plenty of opportunities to get so uh we have six teams on a buy so um sorry fancy owners this is a bad weekend for that, but a good weekend to pick some winners. Matt, how are you doing, buddy? I'm doing okay. We're clinging to 500, man. It's just such a long season. There's peaks and valleys. I think last week we didn't want to bet against the Chiefs or the Commanders. I think in,
Starting point is 00:00:43 well, two weeks ago, we didn't want to bet against the Chiefs. Last week we did bet on the Chiefs or the Commanders. I think in, well, two weeks ago we didn't want to bet against the Chiefs. Last week we did bet on the Chiefs. I feel like I got a little bit blindsided by that. We should have definitely taken the Giants. I had a good feeling on that. And this week I think we're going to have a good Chiefs debate. I actually really like the Broncos, so I'm wondering if we can
Starting point is 00:00:59 talk about that. We will talk about that. The Dolphins screwed us as well. That felt like one we could easily see coming. We did. We saw that coming off the air. Once we heard that both the tackles were out, that was a tough one. As soon as that game started, I was like, this isn't going to be good.
Starting point is 00:01:18 Well, after the first play of the game when the Dolphins scored a 75-yard touchdown, then it became kind of clear the Niners were just going to overpower them. Look guys, it's very important. Offensive defensive lines matter. We record this on Wednesday. If we record this Friday, we'd have probably a different tone about some of these injuries. We just don't know right now. We're guessing a lot of times
Starting point is 00:01:37 with injury reports. There's some teams on the West Coast haven't even practiced yet as we record this now. We don't even have injury reports for some of those teams. The East Coast teams, we have a Wednesday injury report. But late in the season, veterans aren't practicing on Wednesdays. So is it injury? Is it veteran arrest? But just pay attention as the week gets later
Starting point is 00:01:54 to injuries on the offensive line more than anything else. So we've seen it affect obviously the Super Bowl with the Chiefs and Bucs just recently. But it affects weekly matchups between certain teams. It happened in the Dolphins game, down two tackles, and Naira's pass rush got after them.
Starting point is 00:02:12 So let's start with a Thursday night football game. Intriguing start to the week. Very intriguing. I don't know which way we're intrigued by. I'm intrigued by the glorious mess that is the Las Vegas Raiders. They're laying six to the super bowl champion rams the new the new team of baker mayfield um did we talk about that did you and game talk about that no it didn't it didn't happen till till we were off the air now baker mayfield he was released but he wasn't claimed he's now a ram i don't think he'll play at all very much this week but yeah kind of does things make things a
Starting point is 00:02:44 little spicier if he doesn't you know manage to get in the game yeah it does i mean i it's funny when it came when he was cut that was the team i thought he would end up at a few people uh did thought i was crazy but like the rams that they have they're they have nothing to tank for they have no picks ever so it's sort of like all right if they got something with this guy like maybe they got a veteran team with a lot of guys who weren't going to just lay down right like you would think that that would maybe give them a little bit of a boost it's such a rams move too it's like if he ends up being good and then all of a sudden like they would have an asset like i just feel like there's a lot of there was a lot of good reasons for them to make that pickup but even if he doesn't play for really the rest of the season, I think it's,
Starting point is 00:03:25 it's still smart. Yes. I think your point about like them, not taking like, like they're trying to win still. They're trying to win because they don't have the pick that goes to lions. Now,
Starting point is 00:03:36 how about right now, as we sit, I believe picks three, four, and five of next year's draft all go to teams that did not originally own them so the broncos pick goes to seattle the rant the uh rams pick goes to lions and the saints pick goes to eagles what that was a dumb trade i get the russell wilson trade sure uh and the matt stafford trade net a super bowl but the saints trade up for trevor penning um and uh chris alave yeah right uh yeah but more i think they trade up specifically
Starting point is 00:04:08 for penning though right that was the first pick of their that was the pick they gave i think they gave up for for penning yeah either way not looking great the saints are like one of those uh situations that i don't feel like they get talked about enough as one of the like biggest dumpster fires in the league. They definitely are. They've got a coaching problem. They have a quarterback problem. They have one good rookie receiver. Great.
Starting point is 00:04:31 Congrats. I'm with you. I'm with you. I don't know how we start talking about the Saints. Yeah, I don't know because of the draft. Okay, let's get to this game. So actually, I don't know if you like any side, but I'll give you a prop I like. I was writing about this game for Fox Sports.
Starting point is 00:04:48 I was looking up just some – it actually started with Josh Jacobs. His number was like 88 on Action Network. And I thought to myself, wow, that's a pretty low number. He's rushed for over 100 yards now the last three games. And we've seen a lot of teams play that too high safety look against the Raiders on first or second down. The reason teams do that is they say, man, I don't want Devonta Adams to beat us. We'll give up the run as long as we don't get beaten deep. But if you look at Devonta Adams,
Starting point is 00:05:10 three of the last four games, he had over 100 yards receiving. And those are all against teams, no, four of the last five games. All four of those teams, primarily one high safety looks. Cover three and cover one, which is easier to throw against
Starting point is 00:05:25 because there's less safeties, right? So two safeties, there's one safety. Guess who leads the league in cover three defense? The Los Angeles Rams. So I like Devontae Adams over his receiving number. I think it's 80 and a half what I saw this morning. Obviously, that's not a play of ours for the five, but I don't do props very often.
Starting point is 00:05:42 It's Wednesday. It's hard to do props on Wednesday, but I like that one for Thursday Night Football. Interesting. Really good analysis. Good call. If you did have to pick a side here, where would you go?
Starting point is 00:05:55 The Rams. I would too. And the number, I think we shouldn't take it, I don't think, because Thursday, it's the Rams. I'm not positive who the quarterback is is I guess it's probably Wofford but I have a feeling this is going to keep climbing like all the money is on the Raiders and they just feel like a road
Starting point is 00:06:14 favorite with all this momentum that's just going to fall on their face last week this will probably come up a few times last week the favorites the only favorite that lost was the Chiefs the only favorite that well right yeah outright that outright loss was the chiefs the only favorite that uh well right yeah outright that outright loss was the chiefs i think it was 13 one and one last week with the ravens tried their hardest yeah the ravens the ravens did their best the other commanders their best too
Starting point is 00:06:34 um but yeah so i i think this week we're going to see some some weird upsets and i would not be shocked if the ramps pulled this out for all the reasons we said but you can wait so by the time people listen this will probably be seven um oh speaking of big lines uh actually i'm looking at the wrong window yes but we're going here anyway texans cowboys uh this slide has moved a million times it's 16 and a half as i'm looking at it now at most places. Is it crazy to say I kind of like Dallas? I like Dallas too. Yes. Yes. Dude, the Texans are going back to Davis Mills,
Starting point is 00:07:12 and the Cowboys have done something the last couple of weeks that are very kind of like un-Cowboy-like. They've just kind of kicked the ass of a bad team. Yeah. It is what they do. I mean, once you take away that Packers game, they beat the Vikings 40-3. Yeah. It's funny.
Starting point is 00:07:31 You see these lines, and they look so enormous, but it's like last week, they won by damn near 40 points last week. It was 21-19, and it ended up 54-19. Yeah. It's like their defense can score. Their special teams can score. CeeDee Lamb can just make one play. I don't, I mean, you should never make this kind of bet. Here's the thing,
Starting point is 00:07:50 so the Texans haven't covered very much, but they generally play close games. So like, you know, it's 8, 13, 15, and they lost last week by 13, a weird game. that game was so odd um and they're like
Starting point is 00:08:09 you know 304 yards they gave up last week i i i think we don't play the cowboys here maybe we have nothing left to play this week we we play the cowboys here but i i rarely say that we would you know take a big favor like this but i don't hate it in this spot because the texans i think are just kind of dead yeah i agree um the the money line on this game dallas is minus 1600 and the texans are plus 900 you have to do you sprinkle a little bit on the texans you have to like stuff stuff happens like i don't know it's they're two professional football teams like anything's possible um i do too i with all that being said i i would like lean cowboys of all the teams also don't you feel like jeff there's these teams in the nfl now that like when they're rolling you can't stop them like there's some teams that when they're rolling
Starting point is 00:09:00 they seem to take their foot off the gas like the chiefs have always been a team like that where it's like oh they're up by 15 and it's like the game's never over. They do all this weird BS on third down. They don't convert at the goal line. They go for it, and they don't get it. But then there's teams like Dallas and now Philly, I think, where when they are moving downhill, they just keep their foot on the gas and build their confidence.
Starting point is 00:09:22 So I feel like Dallas could win this game by 30, and this line will look uh silly or weird stuff happens and it's a bad week to take the thunderdogs so or the favorites so that's a pass for now i think but maybe we can advance it to the maybes um okay interesting one here browns bangles uh The Bengals are home. They're laying six and a half. I don't believe Joe Burrow's ever beaten the Browns. No, I think he's 0 for 4. Yeah. What do we think? There is something to kind of the ownage here,
Starting point is 00:09:55 but this number feels too much, right? Yeah. Plus six? It does. The problem with this is you have to say, is Deshaun Watson going to play better? Because if he's not, they can't cover this game. But if he does play better, they certainly can.
Starting point is 00:10:14 And they do a good job against this Bengals defense because they kind of mix and match coverages and they rush the passer really well. And it has given Joe Burrow fits in the pass, right? I mean, this year they lost, what, 32-13? The Bengals did in that game. And last year the scores were 21-16 and 41-16. So they kind of have their number.
Starting point is 00:10:44 And I think that matters because the same it's normally, again, we talk about trends here. It's the same coaches, right? And same players. And so I think that matters in this spot. Bales off a big win against the chiefs.
Starting point is 00:10:55 Browns didn't look very good offensively, offensively against the Texans. I, I'm in for the, for the plus six here. Yeah, I am too. And I think I have a feeling we can actually find a six and a half and i have a feeling that's where it's gonna go um this is like this is just like classic nfl season gambling like the bangles came off this huge win like you mentioned the browns look terrible.
Starting point is 00:11:30 Like Deshaun Watson, you have to assume that he's better. Like this is not going to be how he is. Like he got a game under his belt. I mean I can't stand this guy, so it's hard to say like things that are good about him. As I mentioned last week, like we have to unfortunately separate the person from the player when we talk about the Browns, right? Because we could spend all this time talking. We've made our point very clear about how we feel about Deshaun Watson, the person. And we can mention every time if you guys would like. Give us feedback.
Starting point is 00:11:58 Let me know if you want us to mention every single time. We've made it very clear about how we feel about Deshaun Watson, about the person. But we're talking about the football now. And so, and I get people were upset that that wasn't covered enough in their eyes during the game. But I get why the broadcast
Starting point is 00:12:12 didn't do it, Matt. I mean, people are there to watch the game. And I get why the broadcast didn't go into it. But yeah, we both think Deshaun Watson
Starting point is 00:12:19 is a scumbag. Like, but, we're talking about football here and I think that we both agree he'll be better in week two. Yeah. It's hard to say like cool like i like this this is a spot where we have to back him but i think like the cycle of the football season it's always like oh all these favorites one sean watson looked terrible no one's gonna want to bet him everyone loves the bangles that i you know i think this is probably just going to be a close game.
Starting point is 00:12:45 These two teams played earlier this year, and that was the Bengals' weird Monday night blowout loss on Halloween that everyone was sort of like, what, huh? And I feel like it's – I'm not looking at their schedule, but I feel like they may not have lost since. So, yeah, I don't know. This feels like a spot where you just take the six and a half if we can find it, which I'm looking at one.
Starting point is 00:13:04 So I'm cool with passing this through at least the next round i'm in let's do it i this is like either the biggest no-brainer this next game or something that is like too good to be true and we should talk about but the jets are at the bills uh the jets are they're getting nine and a half jeff what is this it's because mike white's not that good. That's why. But he's not that bad either. This is just like a divisional slugfest game. You're probably right because all of the professional money is on the bills, and it keeps moving.
Starting point is 00:13:37 It was eight and a half, nine, nine and a half. It's probably going to get to ten. But I just don't see it. The Jets' defense is so good. i don't see it like the the jets defense is so good i don't see the bills i'm not betting on the bills here but i just don't feel as comfortable betting on the jets in the spot like you're on the road again back-to-back weeks you're playing a good team again in the second week in a row um a bills team that is right? They didn't play last week. They had the Thursday night game.
Starting point is 00:14:08 Oh, yeah, Thursday night. So they're a little rested. I thought Miller out for the season. We got that word today. But he was already on injured reserve, I believe, or he wasn't going to play this game anyways. I see we have better bets than Jets plus 9.5 on the board. But I'm with the sentiment here.
Starting point is 00:14:25 You're not taking the bills, in my opinion. But the Jets, to me, still worry me because Mike White didn't play as well last week. And he kind of got bailed out by the Vikings just having terrible tackling. That's true. But, I mean, remember that these two teams, we're going to start to say this more and more. These two teams played already. The second to say this more and more like these two teams played already the second game is always a little bit tighter the Jets actually
Starting point is 00:14:49 ended up winning the first game um which is pretty still pretty surprising um I feel like this is just going to be everyone's teaser game everyone's going to do their three to two and a half for the Bills and like it's going to be tight um but you know josh allen's looked
Starting point is 00:15:06 a little better that team like they cruised against new england so i i don't know i'm surprised that i mean i assume let me look here that the public is going to be all over the jets um let's take a look jets are getting yeah they have the majority of the bets and only 14% of the money. So this is a too-good-to-be-true thing. I feel like this is another, like, sprinkle on the Jets money line. They're getting, like, plus 350. I'll put it as a maybe. It's a maybe.
Starting point is 00:15:36 I think you just have, I mean, the Jets are good. Like, the Bills, this is like the Bills are the best team in the league. Get at home. Give them their respect kind of line. And after last week where the favorites were so successful, this feels like one of those division game, two good defenses. I'm curious if we know the weather there yet. Yeah, what's the total here?
Starting point is 00:15:57 Do we know? Whoops. The total is 44. Huh. Pretty low. No, that's not low. That's a little above average normally, right, for most lines? It feels higher than it should be.
Starting point is 00:16:11 Yeah, I guess you're right. 92% of the money on the under. Interesting. All right. Let's pencil that as a maybe. I have a feeling it's not going to make it, but I definitely have a feeling that this game will. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:16:23 Your New York Giants, plus seven against the Eagles. I already wrote it as a yes, just letting you know. It's already a yes. Great. Well, you know what's funny? We were talking in the office today. Former producer Nick is here, and he was talking about that AI thing that everyone's doing where you can ask this thing really complicated questions. Yeah, it does Hank's job for him.
Starting point is 00:16:42 And it can distill it. Yeah, so I was just saying, why don't we just have this on the podcast? We know we're taking the Giants. An automated program would know. A divisional matchup with the Eagles laying seven off of a big win where they've looked kind of shaky the last couple weeks. Just make the case. I mean, the Giants are a team that is pesky.
Starting point is 00:17:02 We talk about them all the time, right? They're a well-coached football team. They play, even though they might not win every game, they play teams tough each week. And the Eagles are on the road here off a big win. The Giants tied Washington. No one's on the Giants this week. Seven points is a lot for a team in the Giants. I'm going to make sure I have this right here. They've played in one score games in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 of their
Starting point is 00:17:32 13 games so far this season. Wow. So like 10 of their 12 games, I should say. They played one game where they lost the Lions by, it looks like 13 here, if I have my numbers correctly, and lost the Seahawks by 14. Otherwise, it's again, it's tie, eight points, eight points, six, four, five, eight, seven, three, and one.
Starting point is 00:17:52 Like they just play close football games. And Eagles are going on the road here. Hayden can put some trends in here. I don't know if these matter or not, but teams over the last 20 years that have a win percentage over 90%, so they're pretty good, in December have a get-to-spread of 32%. Jalen Hurts is not as good on the road as well, covering only five of 16 games. So this feels like, again, the Giants as a team
Starting point is 00:18:18 that just kind of overachieves each week, runs the ball, kind of keeps this game within range. I'm in on it. Yep. The Giants eat clock. They have really creative play calls. They, every week, it seems like they're in the game and could win or lose based on a few
Starting point is 00:18:35 fringe plays. They also really need this win. Yeah, they do. They really need it. And the Eagles, the Eagles, like, you know, we're going to get to the Vikings too. The Eagles at some point are going to drop some of these games that feel kind of close. So this could be one of them.
Starting point is 00:18:52 Also, the Giants just aren't a fun team to watch, so I feel like I'm just kind of aware of them without really watching them like I did last week. Their interior on the defense is so good. They're strong, they're fast. The Eagles are not going to have an easy time running the ball. And A.J. Brown is probably not going to have three touchdowns again. I think it's a good spot to buy low on the Giants.
Starting point is 00:19:14 Great. All right, we got one in Penn. Let's talk about another divisional battle with the worst division, the AFC South. The Jags are going to Tennessee. The line is four, four and a half, depending what side we like here. I definitely like a side. Curious if you do.
Starting point is 00:19:34 Do you like the Titans here? I love the Titans here. I love the Titans. I feel like everyone just is off the Titans because they got blown out by a really good team where they lost their receiver early in the Titans. I feel like everyone just is off the Titans because they got blown out by a really good team where they lost their receiver early in the game. Tennessee's thing this year, if you just look at who they've played,
Starting point is 00:19:53 Tennessee tends to beat teams that are worse than them and lose to teams that are better than them. They hold serve. Every week, they're close against these good teams. They're close to the Bengals. They're close to the bangles they they're close to the chiefs they've lost it yeah their four losses are chiefs bangles bills um there's one more division leader chiefs bangles bills eagles that's it and the giants yeah so it's like they're all playoff teams like they're all teams that are that are really strong and then they're under they're undefeated in the AFC South.
Starting point is 00:20:27 They always sort of seem to beat up these bad teams in their division. They're coming back home after a big loss. And the Jaguars, I just don't understand what people see in them. I understand they have good metrics. I understand Trevor Lawrence is a really nice player. But they just don't win road games. What are we talking about? good metrics. I understand Trevor Lawrence is a really nice player. But they just don't win road games. What are we talking about? We think
Starting point is 00:20:49 they're going to go into Tennessee and actually have a chance to win this game. They've won one road game since 2019. We said it last week when we took the Lions. What's different here? They're going against a much better coach team where Derrick Henry did nothing last week. Everyone's going to be like,
Starting point is 00:21:06 ah, Tennessee. We know what Tennessee is. This is where Derrick Henry beats the hell out of people is December outdoors against a hot weather team coming up in the division. I love the Titans here. I don't understand why everybody's on the Jags. I'm good with putting them in. I mean, I
Starting point is 00:21:21 get your point. I just think I'm sort of maybe wrongfully off them after last week. Also, Jacksonville, again, as we point out, very, very bad as a road team. They're back on the road again. Terrible. Yeah, Trevor Lawrence is one road game.
Starting point is 00:21:36 Like, this is a real thing. And Tennessee, just like, every single time they play these teams at home, they've won nine out of ten against the Jags. Like, they're just a team that takes care of business. four i agree with you i'm i'm in i just need some convincing on that yeah i don't think we'll regret that even if we don't get it it's like we bet on drable against this next game is gonna i want no part of it but um jeez i hope you don't have a side i I did. And then the line moved quite a bit. This opened.
Starting point is 00:22:06 So we're talking Vikings, Lions. This opened with the Vikings, as you would assume, as a two-point favorite. And it's moved because everyone's hammering the Lions. The Lions are laying two now, up to two and a half even in some books. Still getting all the money. Still getting 95% of the money. Don't like it. Just stay away.
Starting point is 00:22:26 Just stay away from me. I know Lions are 5-7, right? The Vikings have two losses, 10-2, I believe. Yep. And we've talked often about the Vikings maybe not getting the respect they deserve, and maybe that's fair, maybe that's not. But the Lions are still a flawed football team, especially on defense.
Starting point is 00:22:46 And they played better recently on defense. But I just, I can't put money on either one of these teams right now. The Vikings, I don't think. Couldn't you see the Vikings win this by two touchdowns and be like, hey guys, we're better than the Lions? Like, I just, I don't know. Kind of no. Like the Vikings don't beat anyone by two touchdowns is the Lions. Like, I just... Kind of no. Like, the Vikings don't beat anyone by two touchdowns
Starting point is 00:23:08 is the problem. Like, every single game is a nail-biter. And, you know, last week, we watched Mike White and Garrett Wilson just absolutely demolish this Vikings secondary who got gassed. And they made some nice plays at the end. They got a little
Starting point is 00:23:23 lucky with that Berrios drop. They probably should have lost that game. And every week we're like the vikings probably should have lost but they didn't and this week like the the detroit lions like i know that you're i know how you feel about jared goff so like it's probably better it's really gonna take some he's playing great and like this offense with a healthy st brown has just been incredible like against the bills they put up 25 but they've had 30 point games since uh the middle of november every single week um so i just think like they're kind of humming and we know that we know that the vikings are going to start to drop some games soon right like they're not going to just like keep winning by three every single week this i had the feeling of like when i saw that this game when when this
Starting point is 00:24:09 opened as the vikings as a road favorite it was like gotta take detroit i think i took them like on monday um but now that the line shifted it's a little tricky but getting getting two isn't so bad it's basically a pick i just i feel like we have better ones this week. No? That's fine. I'm not going to stand on the table for it, but if we're looking for a fifth, I would definitely do this over Dallas. Okay. Detroit?
Starting point is 00:24:37 Yeah. Are you with me? Is this just a no-go? If you like it that much, I'm willing to put it as a maybe, but I just don't think we're going to get there. Okay. We'll see. Well, let's talk about a lot of good divisional games this week.
Starting point is 00:24:51 The next one is Ravens-Steelers. The Steelers are now a favorite with the news that Lamar Jackson is going to miss one to three weeks with a sprained knee ligament. So, Tyler Huntleyley who do we want back here well oh man this one's tough um i i think the steelers are the side here because the ravens just aren't as good this season it's that simple right they're just not as good this season and they've had plenty of opportunities to kind of, A, finish games. And they finished last week, but they had 10 total points. But they're just, there's something a little bit off with Baltimore this year.
Starting point is 00:25:34 And what's funny is their DVOA is fourth, but it doesn't feel like they're the fourth best team in the NFL, right? No. Huntley did not win a single game last season as a starter. Now, he covered a bunch of those games but didn't win. And now the team is, like, worse. The team plays worse now. Pittsburgh is just feisty with Kenny Pickett, right?
Starting point is 00:25:54 I think offensively they just kind of run around, make enough plays. It looks disjointed at times, but they just find open guys and they run the ball a little bit better. But I feel like counting out the ravens is never the right thing to do so i'm kind of conflicted here on on on what we would take or what i would take in this um but i'm leaning toward pittsburgh here minus a two and a half but that feels too too squarish too i'm not sure it's square i think the ravens to me, I feel like are just the Vikings East. Like every game, it's a nail biter. Every game, they're up at the end and, oh, wait, what's going on in Baltimore?
Starting point is 00:26:32 All of a sudden, like they're not, you know, the game's close. The Ravens have had an absolutely cake schedule for so long. Let's start in they lost to the Giants in mid-October in a wacky game where I think they also blew a big lead. They beat the Browns with Jacoby Brissett. They beat the Bucs, which at the time felt like a bigger win than it does now. They beat the Saints on the road
Starting point is 00:26:58 on Monday night in what was the only real blowout they had all season. They beat Carolina. They lost to Jacksonville by one, excuse me had all season they beat carolina they beat they lost to jacksonville by one excuse me and then they beat russell wilson's broncos 10 to 9 last week like they haven't played anyone since the beginning of october when they had that stretch where they played the dolphins the patriots the bills and the bangles like they're this team everyone's like oh the ravens like i saw them like someone's. Not that that matters. They were in the top five.
Starting point is 00:27:25 I'm like, when was the last time they had a good win? They haven't beaten anybody. And now you look at the rest of their schedule, and it's like they still have Pittsburgh twice. Pittsburgh, I think we have to put in the caveat that let's assume T.J. Watt is starting. Great staff from the Action Network and our friend Evan Abrams that they're 55-25-2 the Steelers are with Watt in the lineup straight up. And without him, they're 1-10. So if Watt's out, I don't feel like you can ever bet on the Steelers.
Starting point is 00:27:53 But I just feel like this is a good number. The Ravens I think are going to get exposed here. I mean, I didn't expect to make this impassionate of a case for the Steelers, but as soon as you said you were thinking about it, it's like, why aren't we taking it? What are we doing here?
Starting point is 00:28:07 I'm with you as far as the logic in that. Maybe because the last couple of weeks you've had these obvious ones and it's kind of been like bit us a little bit, and I'm just trying to avoid doing that with aligned moves like this. Everyone's on one team. Again, it's not always the right or wrong thing to do, but I think I'm trying to limit just kind of the way we've been doing things the last couple of weeks and kind of getting back to what we have done in the past which in this next game
Starting point is 00:28:32 so pittsburgh by the way is a maybe and we have a bunch of babies this next game though i feel like it's gonna could be a sharpie in the column right now type of game. I think we should, I want to add one last thing on the, on, on the Ravens. So Mark Andrews, if you look at his stats, all of his best games have come with Tyler Huntley, a quarterback.
Starting point is 00:28:57 I know that sounds crazy, but like his, his tight end one season last year in fantasy, his blow up monster games where he had 10 catches for 136 and two touchdowns against Green Bay. He had 11 catches against Cleveland with 115 and a touch. His yards total and his touchdowns seem to come more when Huntley is starting. And I'm sure when the player prop markets come out,
Starting point is 00:29:23 you can get a discount on his yardage over under and like touchdown score this week I would say that you should buy on Andrews and if if you're a disappointed fantasy owner that you might get you might have a nice week but yeah let's move on to Chiefs Broncos sorrycos. Sorry to derail us there. I had to get that in. You mentioned that we're going to like this game. It's because the Broncos, the most ugly team in the league, are plus nine and a half at home. So everyone's going to assume you're taking the Chiefs. Tell them why you're not. Well, this is the game the Chiefs win by a field goal.
Starting point is 00:30:01 This is like the classic Chiefs game, right? But also, too, guys, Denver's defense is really good. Like, I think that's part of this as well, is that with Denver's defense and with their ability to rush the passer
Starting point is 00:30:15 and just play great coverage, I think the Chiefs are going to have trouble moving the ball. It's just not really a pro Russell Wilson. It's just, but also the Chiefs defense
Starting point is 00:30:22 kind of got bullied against the Bengals and they should have been more ready for it. I'm a little pissed off at the Chiefs. Like also the Chiefs defense kind of got bullied against the Bengals and they should have been more ready for I'm a little pissed off at the Chiefs like the Chiefs make dumb mistakes against most teams and they get away with it because they're better you can't do that against Buffalo and in Cincinnati and the Broncos they can and so this game is going to be like 21-13 it's just going to be ugly low scoring and the Broncos is a divisional opponent here.
Starting point is 00:30:49 No one's betting on them. They can't win a game. Well, we don't need them to win a game. All we need them to do is cover this game. Cover this game. And I hate doing this because I'm a Chiefs fan. I don't like sitting there rooting for them to win by less points. But Denver plus 9.5 is a great number.
Starting point is 00:31:06 It's a lot of points in the NFL, and it's the way to go. I mean, there is so much money that's been in Kansas City. You have to take Denver here plus the 9.5 and just suck it up and do it. Yep, that's right. I think that this is one of those where you just have to remove the teams from your head and just say, like, okay,'ve got to take the Broncos here. If you lose it, you did the right thing, and maybe the Chiefs have this big blow-up revenge game,
Starting point is 00:31:30 but I don't think the Chiefs are super worried about one regular season loss to the Bengals. And if they are, they're going to come out a little bit flatter anyway. Also, just generally, as the season progresses, when you have these home dogs, they get better against the spread. When you have home divisional dogs, they get better coming against the spread. When it's outdoor teams like this, you just got to do it.
Starting point is 00:31:54 I'm with you. I'm in agreement. Listen to your friends, Jeff and Matt, and just take the nine and a half and hold your nose. Okay, the late window now. I feel like that's a lot of games for what 16 is off of by the late window. Especially because we have a lean in all of them. I know, it's bizarre.
Starting point is 00:32:14 Panthers-Seahawks. So we discussed this at the beginning. Interesting that you're thinking of Panthers here. So the Seahawks are laying three and a half to Sam Darnold. What would be the Panthers' case here? Well, I was going to make a case for them, and then I've seen the eight maybes we have already, and they're all better than making a case for the Panthers.
Starting point is 00:32:35 So I probably will stay away from this one. But, man, I don't think the Seahawks are a side either, minus three and a half. It's a bad number, and they're just not playing ball as good as they have. I mean, the case for the Panthers is that Sam Darnold is the best quarterback they've had all season, which is crazy. But there's a lot of sharp man in the Panthers this week in this game. But you run across the country. It's a Seattle team that needs a win in the worst way.
Starting point is 00:32:59 They won last weekend, but they're not playing as crisp as they have in the past, right? And so I think that's kind of where you're looking at the Panthers maybe playing kind of their best-ish ball of the season. Seattle not playing as well. And you're looking at points here, but I don't really terribly like either side anymore. Yeah, if you're listening to this Thursday or Friday, you've probably already heard about what's happening with Kenneth Walker and Dante Foreman, both of whom are questionable as we talk about this game now. I think both would actually make a really serious impact if neither were able to play.
Starting point is 00:33:36 I would take Seattle here, but I'm not going to make the case for it. The number sucks. So let's move on. But it sort of dovetails in. A friend approached me today with a bet that he thought about making, and it ties directly into this game. So I'll tee it up here. Seahawks to win the NFC West.
Starting point is 00:33:56 What do you think the odds would be for that? For the listeners, the 49ers are ahead 8-4. The Seahawks are 7-5. The Rams and Cardinals are dead. What would you think the odds would be? Plus 200? head eight and four uh the seahawks are seven and five the rams and cardinals are dead what would you think the odds would be um plus 200 it was plus 300 and they'd still play each other once in seattle um so you know if if brock purdy is not actually as good as he looked last week i think it's probably the case yeah probably the case, yeah. Probably the case.
Starting point is 00:34:25 They're playing Tom Brady and the Bucs this week. They're laying three at home. It's not a bad wager. It's not, because next week, I just clicked out of their schedule, damn it, next week the 49ers go to Seattle on a short week. Then they host the Commanders in a really good defense. Then they go to the Raiders, suddenly frisky,
Starting point is 00:34:43 and then they play the Cardinals in what could be a get-right game., everyone's like, oh, they're fine. Like it doesn't, the quarterback doesn't matter. Jimmy G doesn't matter. Like, may I remind you that with Jimmy Garoppolo, we only have his against the spread record here, but Shanahan, uh, 35 and 21, 25 and one against the spread with Garoppolo, 16-22 without him. When you take his win-loss, it's crazy. He's won eight games without Jimmy Garoppolo starting, and I think he's won some outrageous number with him starting.
Starting point is 00:35:14 It's something ridiculous. Yeah. It's a big disparity. There is. So what do you think? Are you on Brock Purdy? Are you off him for this week? What do we think?
Starting point is 00:35:24 So, by the way, they're favored by three it hosted tampa bay which is just i think kind of silly to me i'm not taking it's crazy i'm not taking tampa here because they're just a whole bag of mess right now they are just like a shit storm of bad coaching and bad play right now. And they're going to win their division and host the Cowboys, which is just hilariously funny. Mike McCarthy, Todd Bowles playoff game. What a joy we have for the best coaching in all the National Football League. So I would say no wager on this game. Maybe a Brock Purdy under wager.
Starting point is 00:36:02 I don't think the offense will go through him quite the same. It was last week, but Tampa Bay is just, I can't, they're untrustworthy right now. I just can't do it. So that to me is where I said, no wager on this one. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:36:14 it's Todd Bowles. I really, I want to be able to make a better case. Because I just think this 49ers team is so beatable, but I did find the record, by the way. The 49ers with Garoppolo are 42-19 straight up, 9-29 straight up without him. I mean, that is just like, that's striking. A, because Garoppolo hasn't been there for 20 years.
Starting point is 00:36:38 He's been there for like five years. He's injured all the time. I would think that three and a half, if I just had to pick this, I would really like the bucks here it just feels like this is a good this is a good d-line tom brady going back to san francisco like this is this is going to be a weird game something strange is going to happen especially after this week where all the favorites covered this just has a 49 or a bucks feel but you mention it like they just they suck like you never know what's coming they i mean the saints i just This just has a 49 or a Bucs feel, but you mentioned it. They suck.
Starting point is 00:37:06 You never know what's coming. I mean, the Saints, I just said they were the worst team in the league, and they beat them by one point on a short week. So I think it's probably a pass, but there is some part of me that really wants to say maybe we should take the Bucs here. I would love to take Tampa Bay here, but I just think, Matt, they're just so unreliable right now. I can't bet on Todd Bowles on the road.
Starting point is 00:37:35 He is such a bad coach, and he got bailed out by Mark Ingram not going out of bounds at the end of that game, right? Yep. I'm so disappointed in them this season. Like, they just have not, they're not as well coached this year as they have been in the past, and it's kind of frustrating. Yeah, it's very frustrating for Tom Brady. Okay, so we're going to pass this just because Todd Bowles is that bad of a coach, unfortunately.
Starting point is 00:38:01 But I do have a feeling we'll be texting about that on Sunday. Possibly. Sunday night game flexed into LA. The Dolphins are at the Chargers. The Dolphins are laying three in LA. Don't you dare talking into the Chargers. I won't allow it. We're not doing it.
Starting point is 00:38:22 The wager is the Chargers, but we're not doing it. This game is going to break Twitter, right? Because there's a group of people on social media called 2 and On that are the biggest Dolphins fans of all time. They've now been joined by Emmanuel Ocho, good buddy of mine,
Starting point is 00:38:38 so I can mock him for this, as the biggest 2 and Defender. I need to pay him to defend me in real life. I'm just going to be like, whenever I get in trouble, I'm just going to be like, hey, Ocho, just talk to my wife for me. Just pump me up, defend me. I don't get it. I don't get it.
Starting point is 00:38:54 Against Justin Herbert, who has the most losses in the NFL as a quarterback the last two years, I believe, right? But he has 3,300 yards passing this season and doesn't have one receiver in the top 30 in receiving yards. Wow. Like he's doing it with nothing. Nothing. So I get it, man.
Starting point is 00:39:16 But this is just going to be one of those games where I'm sitting there. I'm a Herbert fan. And it's just going to be a glorious kind of shit show on social media for three hours straight where our biases are going to come into play. Every throw is going to be analyzed. We never analyzed anything in our entire life before. It's just going to be a mess, man. It is going to be a mess.
Starting point is 00:39:41 I don't have any interest. I would say that it feels like everyone's off the Dolphins now. The Dolphins, I don't think the Dolphins are getting enough credit for how good they actually are. I think that last week was a really bad matchup.
Starting point is 00:39:57 Tua has had this little ankle problem, which is another reason that I wouldn't take the Dolphins, even though I kind of do, I kind of am interested in them. But the Chargers, this is what happens. They're better as dogs. When you have no expectations, they light up a game.
Starting point is 00:40:12 I'm curious. The total in this, this feels like you couldn't make it high enough for me to want to play the over in this. It's 52. That's high. But this feels like it's going to be a track meet. So it's a stay away, but I don't know. I like it's going to be a track meet. So it's a stay away, but I don't know. I think it's going to be... You're right. It's just going to be a fun game to watch.
Starting point is 00:40:30 I'm happy to just be a spectator. It's going to be so... It's going to be like... It's going to be great. We're just going to be screaming at each other on social media for three hours over this game. And like I said, if Justin Herbert plays well, it's going to be like, see? Told you, everyone. I told you, right? It's just going to be one of those games. Yeah well it's like see told you everyone i told you right
Starting point is 00:40:45 like it's gonna be one of those games yeah it's true and i'm here for it i love it well one game that i think is going to make twitter really sad is patriots cardinals um yeah we don't even have to talk about this game this feels like a complete waste of time yeah pats are our road favorites at arizona i don't know which team i trust less i weirdly kind of like arizona but that is a no chance this makes it in the contest for us. You really like Arizona in this game, huh? I think. Actually, no.
Starting point is 00:41:11 I don't like it at all. To me, it's a nothing. Like, I like nothing in this game. Yeah, let's not even talk about it. We're not going to play it. Yeah, all right. So we've got, how many maybes do we have? I feel like we're up to seven or many how many maybes do we have i feel
Starting point is 00:41:25 like we're up to seven or eight so i i feel like we have three yeses so far cleveland plus six giants plus seven denver plus nine and a half are those the three yeses i've seen six and a half for the for the browns so i think we should call it out six six and a half fine with me okay so our others so we're throwing dallas out okay so the Jets, which I just don't terribly like. But Titans minus four, Pittsburgh minus two and a half, Detroit minus two. You like the Titans a lot, right? Yeah, I like the Titans a lot.
Starting point is 00:41:57 I like the Titans a lot. So we'll put the Titans in there. So now we need one more wager here. Pittsburgh, okay, here's the thing. So we have the Lions hosting minus two and a half. Minus two Vikings. Pittsburgh hosting Lamar Huntley.
Starting point is 00:42:14 Ravens at minus two and a half. Which one of those do you like better? I think we have to take the Lions out. Agreed. Pittsburgh was going to I think it has to be Pittsburgh, right? What is it about this Jets line? This feels like four points too high. Like I just – I'm so surprised.
Starting point is 00:42:31 Because Mike White is a backup quarterback. Going into Buffalo. That's why. Yeah. This is Vegas saying like do not take the Jets. But everyone still – they're still getting a lot of public money on the Jets. Right. Like you sort of agree with my premise like if if we i know that people think mike white's better which i'm
Starting point is 00:42:49 i'm for that idea but are you telling me that like this game doesn't it's not 28 10 it could get really ugly and like that road crowd um yeah i i'm with you i think and like the the only thing yeah you're right it's the right side i'm looking up the uh the steelers ravens history here because i have a feeling that um no matter what happens it's it's always close overtime last year one point game that in the earlier meeting last year um pittsburgh earlier meeting last year. Pittsburgh won the last two. Actually, they've won the last four against Baltimore. Pittsburgh has? Yeah, and I think Tyler Huntley played in at least one of them.
Starting point is 00:43:36 I think I called him Lamar Huntley earlier, but it's certainly Tyler Huntley. Utah, of Utah fame, covered him in college. Trace McSorley played in the last The last game Because remember last year everything was so Kind of So yeah it feels like Pittsburgh is going to win that game they might win it by two
Starting point is 00:43:55 But it's definitely going to be I do like Pittsburgh in that Alright We got our five They're ugly but they're our five? They're ugly, but they're glorious. Just like us. They are glorious just like us. All right.
Starting point is 00:44:12 So it's Cleveland plus six and a half, Giants plus seven, Denver plus nine and a half, Tennessee minus four, Pittsburgh minus two and a half. I feel like we are on the right track here with where we like our games. We need to bounce back weak, so it kind of has to be good, Matt. It has to be good this week. Unfortunately, no more college football at the moment. I will say, though, this weekend is the Army-Navy game, Matt. And the total has gone under in 16 straight of these games, okay? 16 straight games between Army and Navy.
Starting point is 00:44:42 In 16 straight of these games, okay? 16 straight games between Army and Navy. The total has gone under in, I think, 41 of the last 50 matchups with Service Academy schools. All right? So that includes Air Force, obviously. What do you think the total is for this game? I mean, the total's got to be like 35. Like, it's got to be so low.
Starting point is 00:45:03 It is 32 and a half right now. Wow. And I'm sure people will say pound the under that's unbelievable yeah pretty crazy right very crazy hey i got a question for you so the i when i don't pay super close attention to college football this has been exposed on this podcast many times but when i saw the opening line for Georgia, Ohio state, I was pretty intrigued by Georgia laying six and a half. It's absolutely the right wager to make.
Starting point is 00:45:33 So it almost felt like sort of like that bills line where I was just like, hang on a second. Like what's happened. It almost felt like too good to be true in a weird way. And I don't follow the sport. So I didn't really know. I'll explain it. Um,
Starting point is 00:45:44 so the reason, the reason why, um, is, in a weird way and I don't follow the sports so I didn't really know. I'll explain it. So the reason why is Ohio State is very high in the power ratings for like if you look at SP Plus or FPI or just anyone in Vegas,
Starting point is 00:45:59 because they have a really good offense and at times they play really good defense. The problem is if I watch them play, and I do watch them play for the Joe Moore, for the offensive lineman, there's just like this physicality part missing. Where Michigan's done this two years in a row, just like punched them directly in the mouth
Starting point is 00:46:17 over and over again, and they eventually submit, right? What's Georgia going to do? They're going to punch them in the mouth the entire game, and Ohio State, until proven otherwise, is going to submit, right? What's Georgia going to do? They're going to punch him in the mouth the entire game, and Ohio State, and until proven otherwise, is going to submit, right? And again, they can prove us all the way wrong. You can play this clip all you want,
Starting point is 00:46:34 but prove me right, because the last two times you've played a team that could push you around, Michigan, you've been pushed around. The Rose Bowl against Utah, you learned a lot of bazillion points to a Utah team you let a lot of bazillion points to a Utah team that was a bunch of guys were hurt, and you scored like 45, but they had a backup running back
Starting point is 00:46:50 playing corner in that game. Like Utah couldn't, and Utah, by the way, also pushed Ohio State around in that game as well. Ohio State ended up winning that game, obviously. Utah was down to their backup quarterback in that game as well. And to me, like, that's why. It's like Georgia, when they have wanted to play this season, they have covered every game that they've played. They have dominated the opponent when they want to play. Now, can Ohio State score a bunch of points and keep this close?
Starting point is 00:47:14 Absolutely. But I do think that Georgia, in the end of this game, wins this game by 10 to 14 points, maybe more. And I would put money on Georgia. I'd put money on both of the favorites in these games. And remember, too, most of the semifinal games have been blowouts in this round. If you go back to the history of semifinal games, the last one that felt any close was Georgia-Oklahoma in 2018. Otherwise, they're mostly butt whoopings. The total in that is really high.
Starting point is 00:47:46 It's 61. And I feel like that's just going to be Georgia like 20 to 10, right? Well, no. I mean, Georgia allowed points to LSU last weekend, and that might be why the total is a little bit higher. But Ohio State can legitimately score, and I think they're going to score on Georgia. The thing about it is Georgia is going to bludgeon them to death
Starting point is 00:48:02 with their offense. Interesting. So the other game I think was it 8.5 for Michigan? Is that what I just saw? Do you think that's another? I think Michigan, just sort of the same thought process. Like, Michigan and Georgia, to me, if the BCS system wasn't placed this year, it would be fine with me. Like, just have the two best teams play and be done with it.
Starting point is 00:48:22 And they're the two best teams play and be done with it. And they're the two best teams. And again, they're teams that over the course of 60 minutes end up physically dominating you. And I think that's what TCU is going to be. TCU couldn't handle Kansas State's defensive line. Michigan's defense brings it too. So I think that's the concern for TCU in this game as well, is that Michigan I think eventually wears them down. All right. Well, I don't mean to spoil any bold previews, is that Michigan, I think eventually wears them down. Huh?
Starting point is 00:48:45 All right. Well, I don't mean to spoil any bold previews that we're going to definitely be talking about more. One last line. I want to hit Jeff. Um, yeah,
Starting point is 00:48:52 you are staying in the lower East side of New York. You're very close to Katz's deli, um, over under one and a half pastrami sandwiches ordered by you at Katz's deli while you're in New York doing shows with our friend Nick Wright on First Nick First, by the way. Everyone should tune in. So I walked by there today. The line was way too long.
Starting point is 00:49:12 Absurd. I'm not a line waiter like that. It sounds maybe rude and bougie to say. So zero because I'm not waiting that long. No. If I walk by there tomorrow when they open early, maybe I'll wait for 15 minutes or so but that's a 30 minute wait i've had there i've had it before like it's not like
Starting point is 00:49:29 i haven't had their sandwich before it's also a matzo ball soup and a sandwich is 40 bucks now it's freaking nuts man like the first time i went there i was like hang on did you did you add a decimal point like or move this thing over a little bit what are we talking about and i'm gonna have i'm gonna have russ and daughters uh bagel and lox tomorrow though i can order that i can order and just show up and pick it up that is a really nice choice you will not regret that i can promise i've ordered russ and daughters on on gold belly before i'm very excited to be in this part now i'm gonna we're done here i'm gonna get my butt up this is why i like new york i'm gonna walk a mile to pick up sushi our friend dan rubenstein said hey this place. I'm going to walk a mile to pick up sushi. Our friend Dan Rubenstein said, hey, this place is great.
Starting point is 00:50:06 I'm going to walk a mile there. It's like 40 degrees outside. I'm going to walk a mile back. I'm going to earn my dinner and I'm going to sweat the entire time. So I need to get going. Have a great weekend, everyone. And enjoy wagering. Hope you win.
Starting point is 00:50:19 Best of luck. God bless you.

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