Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 15 LIVE on Twitter!

Episode Date: December 16, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back to give you the best bets for Week 15... and they're doing it LIVE from Blue Duck studios in El Segundo! If you watched along with the boys on Thursday, let us know! We want your feedback. If you missed the stream, you can still listen to the episode to get your favorite bettors' picks, and follow the pod to get notified the every time Geoff drops a new show.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

we're live thanks oh hello everybody hey welcome in to jeff schwartz to smart you i'm jeff schwartz that's matt ford right there live for the first time ever we've never done this before i'm in los angeles here with matt we're in the blue duck studio it's fantastic week 15 of the nfl we're gonna go over everything as usual the wagersagers, the props we like, general stories we like. As usual, we're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. And Matt, we're going to let people roll in here. We have to get better. We do have to get better.

Because we stunk last week. We did stink last week. We've really been on just a downward spiral. Sort of not dissimilar from your New York Giants, really. The last couple of weeks. Maybe we crawled our way to a tie at some point in the mix. like sort of not dissimilar from your new york giants really the last couple weeks like maybe we maybe we crawled our way to a tie at some point in the mix but we've just been just a disaster for the better part of a month here yeah we were we were on the right track we're now 33 35 and two

okay after one or four week and it wasn't it was the week we should have been better we weren't i'm not gonna harp on it because we're going to be better this week and we're going to get this back on track. We have to be. Every team, I believe, is back in action this week. We have games tonight, obviously. We have games Saturday. We have games Sunday.

And we'll get you some action. What's your thought? Let's buy another minute here. We're doing this live. We're building the spaceship out of tin and just flying it. It's the first time you guys have done this, right? Yeah, first time live on Twitter in the studio. So let's give ourselves another minute here.

In the meantime, I am curious. Saturday games? Thoughts? Yes. Well, more football is always great. So I'm not going to say no to that. This time of year, you're shortening, obviously, the period of rest, which I think one day is not that bad. but without you know without college football on saturdays

nfl is going to take over every day and that's what they're trying to do yeah um and we have good games this weekend the night game is going to be great uh really good game and really curious if i am bet on that hoping there's snow like i love weather games maybe i grew up here in los angeles and i grew up playing sports and perfect weather for almost the entire season long, whether it was football or baseball, you know, go to Oregon. We had obviously rain,

but I only put in one snow game, my entire career in Washington, in the 2013 chiefs, Washington, the famous game where there was no one in the stands. Yes. At halftime. 35,

10 at halftime. I think to me, like football this time of year is cold. Like it should be cold and it should be windy, and the snow adds another element to it. Plus, you have a warm-weather team coming up, you know, to play in that weather most likely. It's why Buffalo, I think, wants to keep their outdoor stadium.

Like, this is the reason why you keep it, right? It's an advantage, for sure. It's an advantage. But then also, you have some weekends when you can't play and you have to go play in Detroit, right? I mean, that's a tradeoff. So, Saturday games are great. It's more football to watch yeah well this is gonna be a great week what do you think uh vick how do we look and sound i think we're looking

good should we get into our picks here we got millions of viewers right now too millions of viewers um millions and millions well thank you all for watching and listening and bear with us if something goes wrong and it's probably my fault actually because we uh helped build this place so um let's see we don't have producer hank in the room but uh this was his idea i want to give him a shout out and uh you know we we mostly just give him shit so it's nice to uh this is a fun idea give him a shout out yeah it puts us a little bit more on the spot we can't screw up in all our hours hours of prep we're gonna show right yeah well this was the most we've ever prepared for an episode and it was five minutes before we got on the air and so i think this week this is five and oh it's one win for every minute we've we've had one fours two and threes three and twos

four and ones yeah we haven't had either in any direction obviously yeah you can't say the one we can't say either we need a five and oh though we need a five and oh this week this is the way this is the way we're here in person let's do it i feel like this is the week okay let's go well let's see if we're gonna get started with the thursday night game uh and by the way the super contest lines are out i'll reference them uh if you're familiar with the super contest but we'll actually talk about the lines as they are now um great game tonight the 49ers are going to se. The Seahawks are three point or three and a half point now at most books. Home dogs. Seattle, tough place to play.

Short week. Rock Purdy a little banged up potentially. What do we think? You have to take Seattle here. Plus three and a half. I think we might. Yeah. This is an absolute play that you have to make if we want to get back on track.

So it's always kind of the opposite of what you think, right? So the Niners have won, what, six games in a row now? Yeah. They're looking really good. They just dominated the Dolphins and the Bucs, obviously. The Bucs are not very good. Seattle's in the other direction, right? Seattle's lost three or four with their one win being that close win to the Rams.

They lost, I believe, what? They lost the Bucs in Germany, yeah, the Raiders in overtime, beat the Rams, and then just lost to the Panthers at home, by the way. But this is setting up for kind of the classic overreaction game on both sides, right? We're going to underappreciate Seattle, overvalue San Francisco. And there's nothing against really the Niners and the way they're playing. They're playing really good football right now.

But it's more that Seattle needs this win in the worst way. Niners are on a short week. Brock Purdy's on the road in Seattle now. First time starting a big road game. He's a little bit beat up. No Debo Samuel, of course. Now they're referring to Kenneth Walker's Ken. Ken Walker, I saw the tweet, is back tonight as well.

That's huge. This feels like a really good spot. Take a three and a half, dude. And you know we don't like to play many Thursday games. Yeah. I think you almost have to play this divisional game on Thursday Take a three and a half dude. And you know, we don't like to play many Thursday games. Yeah. I think you almost have to play this divisional game on Thursday night, plus three and a half. 100%.

You can get the three and a half now at a lot of books. Reminder that, I mean, these teams, the NFC West is sort of like that cycle of teams that beat each other and lose to each other. Good history for the Seahawks. They had won four straight and then the 49ers won the matchup earlier this year

when Geno Smith was still getting his footing by the way so they match up pretty well you mentioned the short week the Seattle crowd like this is this is it right like Seattle the next next week they go to Kansas City the following week they face the Jets who are certainly no cakewalk as they usually are in week 17 and then the Rams which you know always is going to be a good game so this is really important this is also critical for the division which is still in play I can't remember if we wagered on the Seahawks to win the NFC West they were they were a great we did not we took we took the um took the Niners under oh we did take the Niners under which is not going to which is not going to happen. We took Trey Lance under as well.

Yeah. And we took the Bosa over sack number, which hit him. Oh, yeah. So we're set there. A couple of things to realize here. Kyle Shanahan is bad against the spread as a favorite. Always. We know that. Yep. Last week, it was only the ninth game he's ever won

as a head coach without Jimmy Garoppolo. He has not been good as a head coach without Jimmyimmy groblo huh he has not been good as a head coach without jimmy g again brock purdy on the road in seattle um you're going against conventional wisdom here right all everyone's been the niners tonight um and our favorite fade by the way has been niners as well so i i feel like seattle here plus three and a half with that hook as we're speaking right now better than three three, obviously. And I think it's, I think the Seattle could win this game outright. Yeah.

I like this one. I mean, we, we didn't really mention Debo, but certainly that's going to have some kind of impacts with Debo. This is a great stat from producer Hank with Debo. The 49ers are 32 and 16 when he gets one target without him five and eight straight up.

Yeah. Interesting. And again, they're not as good without Jimmy Garoppolo. One prop I liked, I had to write about this game for Fox Sports. Geno Smith, his total was 250 and a half. And this was obviously before Ken Walker was announced as playing. But for them to win this game, I feel like he's going to have to do a lot.

Not only is it the best rush defense yards per game, and part of that is that everyone's always passing the ball against them at the end of games because they're behind. But Seattle has the offensive tackles, I think,

to kind of slow down Bosa a little bit. Eric Armstead inside is a problem, I think. But I think Geno Smith is going to have to throw them to victory. I rarely take quarterback overs.

And I feel like this is a spot to take Geno Smith over here. Interesting. He's been incredible this season um all right let's move to the saturday games uh the first one is one that i'm probably not going to spend a whole lot of time watching unless you talk me into one of these sides colts vikings in minnesota four or four and a half the The Super Contest line is four. That game starts at one Eastern on Saturday. Can't imagine we're super interested in this one, right? No, we're absolutely not.

Minnesota came back to earth last weekend, right? They're still 10-3, but 21st in overall team efficiency. So their record and their efficiency do not line up. We'll get to a team later on whose good efficiency doesn't line up with the way they're playing now. And then you have a Colts team that is dead, right? I mean, they – I mean, it's not – I'm not being unfair here. Jeff Sattery took over. They beat the Raiders.

Great win. The Raiders are the Raiders. One point loss to the Eagles, and they kind of played. They came closer. The Eagles came back and scored the end. Lost to the Steelers and then of played they came close remember Eagles came back and scored the end lost to Steelers and then got blown out by the Cowboys

and the last time we saw them play was in that blowout against the Cowboys but the Vikings laying four I just no part of me

wants to take them you know I think you can certainly make the case that there's a bounce back opportunity here after that loss but

and Cousins at one o'clock we know he's much better that time but there's got to be better wages for us uh on this weekend i get i mean you're right but i just i don't know why this is the popular sharp bet of the week is to bet the colts as if four is some insurmountable number for minnesota like minnesota tends to win really close games have really chaotic finishes like they're not great at closing teams out but like the this is the colts like i do want to i do want to remind everyone at least in their pick and pulls it's like this isn't this is not a crazy ask for minnesota to win by a touchdown oh certainly not especially at home especially like i think the colts were the colts off last week they were yeah so like they get a little great jeff saturday gets a lot of time to really dig into the game plan there

but yeah i mean this is a pass but like matt ryan on the road against a team that is just that was embarrassed i feel like we might look back and be like why didn't we take this but that's uh that's a coward's way of saying that i i'm interested but not really um let's move to the next game on saturday yeah uh browns ravens uh the browns and the super contest are favored by two and a half at home i'm gonna look quickly to see if that's changed based on this huntley news um huntley the ravens backup quarterback for lamar just it seems like he is going to play yes he is going to play two and a half three um no change um all right so the ravens are a team that doesn't align with their efficiency ratings, right?

They're fifth in overall efficiency, but they certainly don't play like that each week, right? Multiple, we know that multiple double-digit leads have been erased throughout the season. Struggled to beat Denver a couple weekends ago. Now, I know that Tyler Huntley got hurt. Anthony Brown had to come in, but they're just not playing as well, I think, as their efficiency numbers have shown. And there's

certainly a possibility that it pops up at some point to play that full 60-minute game, which they've struggled with. They beat the Steelers last weekend, and the Steelers had multiple opportunities to win that game, obviously. We know that, right?

Gave it away. Pickett came out of concussion. Trubisky threw two red zone turnovers, which is hard to do each week, obviously, for the Ravens. You have to feel like, you know, that wasn't, you know, it's hard to carry that over. Ravens ran the ball well, especially when they had to run the ball, which is good.

So I'm not that high on the the ravens but why is anyone high in the browns yeah i don't get this line they're not i mean this is a standard home for the vintage line right yeah but like why plus a half a point to the browns probably i feel like if you like the ravens like and if you're watching us live like just just bet them now because the way i think with the huntley thing it's going to go down a little bit. If you can get a three, I don't mind the three for Baltimore. They're a much better team. By the way, Dobbins coming back was huge for them.

Their offense is completely different. The Steelers-Ravens games are always crazy, and Mitch just had a really bad game. I don't know. I think there's a sense with the Browns that if Watson does turn it on, they turn it to a much different team. Like, they had opportunities, and we had the Browns last weekend. I mean, the last quarter of that game,

the three opportunities to even cover that game just couldn't kind of cross that threshold. And there has to be a sense from bookmakers, like, if this is the week that Watson turns it around and starts playing better. Remember, he didn't play for so many weeks that the Browns do become this more dangerous team. I think it's a stay away from me or just the Ravens. Yeah. Stefanski, I feel like I bring this one up all the time. Bad against the AFC North, 4-12 in his career.

Really bad. In the last 20 years, Stefanski is the second least profitable coach against the spread in his own division, which basically just means he's not good. AFC North and Baltimore has just been good against Cleveland. Now that we're talking about it, I'm sort of intrigued by it, but I don't know. It feels a little fishy to me, so maybe we can just – maybe this is on like the deep maybe list which is not a thing yeah i would stay away for now um all right the marquee game is saturday one that is by the way fantasy playoffs

this is gonna like this game is i think josh allen might be in for like the josh allen game of the season dolphins bills uh seven is the line seven and a half is the super contest line for Buffalo at home. Some weather expected. Tyreek Hill a little banged up. Waddle maybe even a little banged up still. Don't know what's going on in that Dolphins backfield. Do you think that this is the game where the Bills just absolutely explode? I think it might be.

Remember the first game, the Dolphins won this game, right? And the Bills had like 50 more plays than them. Yeah. And it was kind of a weird game like yeah that's right bill surely should have won this game but since that since that that win now two we didn't play in kind of three of these games but the next five wins the the dolphins had right steelers lions who turn out that win that looks a lot better now obviously yeah bears browns with with uh with brissette and texans and they played two real teams niners and chargers and stunk and did not play very well yep now they're playing a real

team again and the blueprint is out on two and now there's a blueprint out on how to stop this offense will mike mcdaniel make the change i don't think against the bills defense he will on a shorter week in bad weather there is a little bit of concern for me about the Bills variance on each kind of game like up and down a little bit and there certainly is and I get the idea that this is the Josh Allen breakout game and it certainly can happen I think that he has not played as well as he would have liked the last six to eight

weeks since the Chiefs game however this feels like a 42 to 14 win for the Bills. I know. It feels like a monster win for the Bills. Night game, cold. The Bills basically take over the division with this game after beating the Jets last weekend. And the Dolphins just haven't,

they got punched in the mouth the last two weekends and did not have an answer. I'm not the bills their team where that answer arrives yeah that's right i mean just from you know some somewhat of a lay person's perspective like it seems like it kind of reminds me the dolphins offensive the rams offense when goff was there where it was almost like i almost feel like it's oversimplified for Tua, where everything is just timing these like, these concepts where it's just like, there's guaranteed to be a guy open.

It's just like, boom, make the read and make the throw. Like it's not a lot of thinking. It's just play to his strength, which is like that accuracy on those middle passes. I feel like everyone just figured it out. It's like, if you just, if you just press Tyreek and Waddle at the line, then Tua panics. And their offensive line has been so banged up.

And it's just really exposed. And when you watch him play, and to your point about how it's so kind of scheme-specific, he doesn't really have, at least not yet in his kind of offensive mind, to go to number two well he looks right here not there and kind of forces it and i'm not sure that this bill's defense is the one where i expect there to be this big improvement yeah and this is kind of so we played oklahoma this is the inverse of what's happening now. We put Oklahoma in 2004. It was in college.

And we were playing them week two. It was a day game in Norman, Oklahoma, like a 12 central kickoff. And it was hot, right? Like we knew it was going to be hot. And we're in Eugene, Oregon. And we had a practice in the middle of training camp geared for that.

We turned the indoor facility up to like 98 degrees. It was gross in there. Solid band. And we had, yeah. And it was an old artificial artificial turf so it wasn't even like the field turf it's like the old artificial turf it felt like the ground was sweating too like there was just water everywhere it was gross it did nothing for us we got our asses kicked by oklahoma this week the dolphins turned down their indoor down to 50 degrees mike mcdaniel's wearing a shirt saying like i wanted to be colder

kind of like mocking the situation in my opinion and i feel like they're not really like that to me still as a team that's not taking it seriously i know it might seem like i'm getting too much in the weeds here but i just i think they don't really realize how cold it's going to be and two has really never played a game like this before yeah he hasn't and last week if you remember they had heaters on the sideline in the game here in la where it was like 50 degrees um two has never played in a game under 36 degrees i i'm tempted on this let's put it let's put it in the maybe batch because i i just think that i don't have my normally have a pen and paper but but I put it in my phone. Oh, that we're high tech.

All right. I'm just putting it on the bottom of the rundown here. A little behind the scenes action. We're laying... Let's lay the seven. Yeah, we're not laying seven and a half. Yeah. So we're getting a little sneaky with the Super Contest lines, but that's fine.

These are real lines. These are actually what they are now, which is usually our policy. Okay. We're moving to Sunday. Okay. Okay. The Eagles are nine-point road in chicago off the buy by i should mention by the way eagles aren't the eagles aren't off the buy bears off the buy yeah sorry bears off the buy um the by the way just so you know

because i'm going to bring this up here the dolphins are a very popular uh sharp play this week big split on the money and the tickets. Not surprised. With the Eagles and the Bears, again, Eagles are getting 60% of the bets from mostly the public, and then the Bears are getting 72% of the money, which is a humongous discrepancy. I'm not mistaken, the biggest of the week.

So the sharp guys love the Bears. Yeah, of course they do. Justin Fields probably playing this game, right? Yeah. They're the reporters as of now on Thursday. God, this game opened at three. It's now at nine. I like this week.

Jordan Malata said that we're playing the Chicago Bears and not the Chicago Micah Parsons. Yeah. The Parsons went after Jalen Hurts kind of randomly out of nowhere. They're both not playing each other this week yeah um he's had an interesting few weeks mr parsons oh god this this is like a game where you take the plus nine and hold your nose right but i mean i don't know the eagles are such a juggernaut right now like this they could easily win this game by 21 points not try very hard yeah i it's like how many more games the eagles have to do oh we're not i'm not taking this but i no no

we're not taking philly either but like i just feel like this is everyone's little layup and they're just saying oh fields keeps games close he never covers no he never covers okay so there's going to be a bills eagles teaser oh yeah who's the third? We have to figure out by the time we're done here who the third or fourth leg of that tease is and who's going to lose that tease for everybody. Okay, yeah, great. Yeah, what will we be texting about? Yeah, so it's going to be,

so Buffalo obviously taking them down to one. Yep. Eagles down to three. I would imagine the Chiefs would be in a lot of teases. Oh, man. Even though it's going from 14 to eight, which doesn't help anybody, unless you do a seven-point tease.

Yep. But there's going to be a lot of teams, a lot of favorites teased down. I'm curious which one we think by the end of the show will be the one that doesn't cover. It's Kansas City, but let's continue with the next game. God. All right. So that's a pass.

I would, if I'm in a pick spool, I'm comfortable laying the nine with Philly. They're the best team in the league. Okay, Falcon Saints. Jeez. Who's playing quarterback in this? Desmond Ritter and Stalton, I think. If you're listening to this podcast for the first time on social media, thank you.

You can download it. Jeff's worked with Smart on you. We do two episodes a week. Ton of fun. I hope to make you a Smart Football fan. One thing we do on this show is we save your time. And if there's a game that we have no interest in, that means nothing for anybody, we just skip it.

We want to save your time. Like, we're not out here to do a two-hour podcast. We're in Los Angeles right now. I'm hungry. I want to go eat some burritos down the street with Matt after this. Yep. We're not talking about the Saints and Falcons. Nobody cares.

Saints are starting Dalton quarterback. Desmond Ritter is ridder is playing like do you care what's the edge what angle could you have where you're like i'm smarter than the book on this that's been ridder i guess playing yeah great uh that's a hard pass tough break for your boy mariotta will we ever see him again i'm i think he's the perfect backup yeah congratulations. He just had a kick. Congratulations, Marcus. Congrats. They had knee surgery as well, so that stinks. But yeah, we're just going to save you guys time. Let's move it along. Yeah.

Really fun game next. Dallas at Jacksonville. The super contest line here is four. It's moving around. Three and a half is available. Gosh, I just feel like this is such i mean you have to take jacksonville yes and this is it feels like god number should be like seven right this is such a weird number and it feels this is this is like the week where i think people are just gonna get massacred by the

books like i just feel like there are a few they'll get massacred because they're gonna take like jacksonville plus there's just some weird number like this buffalo line is really weird this this eagles line to me is really weird. This game is just a strange line. Like why isn't this six or six and a half? Like I get the people. So Jacksonville is one of those teams that I think people have been waiting for. They're like, okay.

Yeah. But they've shown it the last couple of weeks that they're showing that like Trevor Lawrence sort of finally like fulfilling his talent. Yeah. And there's also a thought I think with Jacksonville and probably a little bit the Colts even though we skipped that game, like they can win the division still. Yeah. Like I think there's the thought of like, okay, we can still win the division.

So Jacksonville for their overall team efficiency they are at where's jacksonville at they're 18 they're 13 offense 28 on defense cowboys are fourth number one on defense right now um where's the money i gotta imagine the money's heavily on Dallas. Heavily on Jacksonville. Jacksonville? Enormously on Jacksonville, yeah. 90% of the money in a split amount of bets. Yeah. This is actually the biggest discrepancy of the week,

more than the Bears. This is like the darling team for the Sharps. I just don't know why. They stink. I know. They don't stink, but they're just... Cowboys are outside in a warm weather game. They just stung against Houston too, right?

Yeah. So they're going to play much better. Yeah, that's true. You're getting a really nice buy low on Dallas. Probably their best buy low of the season. Absolutely, but we're also not taking them minus four, are we? No, but we're definitely laying off the Jags. If we just pass on this game, I view that as a win

because this is everyone's layup every gambling podcast you're gonna listen to this week is gonna be like take the jaguars the jaguars i mean yes they beat the ravens they beat the titans yeah those are teams with let's just say not super explosive offenses like i i they can put up a lot of points but the i think the lions game is actually like a pretty good template. Lions put up lions on that game 40 to 14. And it was over in the first quarter. Like the Jags just don't have the horses offensively to go against a team like Dallas.

I don't think by the way, like no, no disrespect to the great fans and Duvall, but like, this is at least a 50, 50 Cowboys game, right? Like most Cowboys games are that way.

Yeah. It's an outdoor, like warm weather game like they you mentioned the playoff potential here like i just i think that was the play um but let's pass it because the four is not it's not great uh okay let's go back to the rundown and oh okay definitely feel like we're gonna have some interest in this one lions jets uh the it's i think a pick in the contest now uh picking the contest uh plus one either way you can get you can get a point either side what do you think i would take the jets pick them but i'll take them plus the point here um this is

a a buy low spot for the jets and a stay away spot for the lions right the lines are red hot right now blazing hot we're going on the road in a cold weather environment facing a very tough and physical Jets team. Mike White hasn't played as well as people thought, which is not, I think, not that unexpected. But they hung tough with the Bills. Like, they hung tough. The Lions' defense has played better lately,

but they're not the Bills' defense. I think the Jets win this game outright. I'd like to take the point here here yeah let's do it i mean the mike white says he is he's his quote just a few minutes ago is he is definitely playing this week uh so that you know if he's not playing then we certainly would be less interested in this the jets by the way in the lines are very close in in efficiency jets are ninth aligns aligns 11th so the you know the the so i feel like they think the lines might be better on neutral field if you know the situation too which i just don't i guess it's quarterback jared goff has played well mike white

has not but jared goff outside it's just not as good 38 degrees in the meadowlands this weekend he's you mentioned he's not great outdoors under 500 against the spread outdoors indoors he's 25 and 13 against the spread that's unbelievable it just feels like like a like a you feel like a 14 13 like just some ugly gentleman in the cold at the meadowlands yeah this is a huge uh this is a huge game for both of these teams um what did you think by the way did you see the so obviously your guy panay sewell caught a huge pass last week it was incredible i thought it was so funny that campbell he's i think it was on mcafee he said that he he wasn't even aware that that was yeah he's lying um i think he's just telling a good story there's no yeah

there's no chance that that play was run without Dan Kimball saying, we're running it. Huh. It was a gutsy call. It was a huge spot in the game. He claimed that the wave was happening, which it was at that time. Yeah. And that he couldn't hear the OC ask him, like, can we run this play now?

Yeah. I doubt that was – the wave was there, but I doubt he did not say, like, yes. Yeah. He said, like, oh, they've run it and practiced a lot, yeah i doubt that was that the wave was there but i doubt he did not say like yes yeah he said like oh they've run it and practiced a lot and penne is a is a great athlete you can tell just from penne is a great dude his route like the way he like turned and squared to golf to catch that ball i was like this guy should be a wide receiver think about it it was third and seven the two right eight They were up eight. Okay, yeah, yeah, that's right.

And they threw the ball to the right tackle who lined up in the slot. Yeah, and was wide open. Wide open. Great route. Who's going to guard him? Yeah, I loved that. And I thought, I don't know,

if you had to hire one guy for your head coach of the Texans, I feel like the choices right now are Ben Johnson or D'Amico Ryans, right? It feels like those are the two that are going to like the choices right now are ben johnson or d'amico ryan's right it feels like those are the two that are going to get the big buzz this year yeah off the top of my head i can't think of anyone else yeah i have to think so yeah that was a corner i love that play like it's just that's like a dan campbell yeah lions like smash mouth kind of deal i just i love that it was a great swagger play i think leslie frazier the the bills

could have a lot of a lot of love this offseason as a dc yeah he should and he's been there before um yeah that's that's a good call um okay so we're gonna put the jets in the maybe pile yes like that real quick how is this this is pretty fun right oh it's fantastic yeah i got a little axe here to this play axe we have that I found. Yeah, that's not a real axe. No. We've had that the whole time. No, it's just not a real axe.

It's a fake axe. But like I'm one of those. I wonder if anyone wondered. I'm one of those like ADD people that has to like touch stuff at all times. Yeah. So like I'm, luckily I'm not playing with like a pen right now. Yeah. So I'm just like, I've held this the entire time.

I've been pretending to be a baseball bat. Like I'm on The Walking Dead. Just like. we better take the jets yeah like yeah like come on matt hammer them hammer them um so yeah i just if you see this like pop up in the screen it's just me being yeah it's it's made of like plastic i don't know foam oh yeah it's definitely i mean it's not like it's not like not hard like you could probably like do i mean it's not like it's yeah i can do a little bit of it's not like it's... Yeah. It could do a little bit of damage. Yeah.

It can disorient you for a second. Yeah, I'm disoriented. You are? Yeah. Yeah, I've completely lost my grip. You'll be disoriented on this next pick. You know who's very disoriented all the time? Mitch Trubisky.

He threw three picks in relief last week. I don't think anyone else has ever done that. I'm sure others have done that, but he potentially is going on the road to your hometown of Charlotte to play the Panthers. Yes.

Panthers laying three, all of a sudden, everyone's favorite team. Everyone's doing a Bill Simmons and is like, the Panthers win the division. We have them. Our playoff ticket

for the Panthers is still alive. Somehow. Yeah. That's so ugly. Yeah. I would say without knowing who the pittsburgh quarterback is we can't wager on this game right now um if it's kenny pickett i think plus three is absolutely the play i think there's no way you put money

the panthers this weekend nope i don't think so i don't i mean this is also i'm mr like mike tomlin is an underdog and i i don't have the heart. Oh, you love it. Yes. They just are not a good team. All right. That's a pass. We're into time saving. God, speaking of time saving, your Chiefs are 14-point road favorites in Houston.

There's no chance you can take either side. No, no. I think Mahomes over his passing yard is the way to go. It's averaging 320 yards. Aren't they going to pull him in the second quarter? No, No, no. I think Mahomes over his passing yards is the way to go. He's averaging 320 yards. Aren't they going to pull him in like the second quarter? No, no, no. He's over,

his last six games I think he's averaging 320 passing yards per game. No, no, no, excuse me, for the season. 320 for the season. He's on pace for his most yards ever.

I think that he's going to have a bounce. You remember, he threw three interceptions in the second half of that Broncos game. I think he's going to have a big bounce back game.

Interesting. But, dude, the Chief have a big bounce back game. Interesting. But, dude, the Chiefs never play this game like they should. They should win this game 30 to nothing. But they're going to win this game 35-24

and Texas are going to cover. Yeah. So, you think that they're going to play, like, this is, I mean, I guess,

I don't know, like, what value do you have in playing this game all the way through if you're the Chiefs? Like, don don't you want to stay healthy no but the so the nfl you don't really pull guys though like that's a yeah it's a college you don't really you rarely pull guys nfl yeah i don't know it just feels this this game has like a little bit

of a weird factor it also felt like last week the texans the texans like unlocked something like to their credit and i feel like maybe we should have seen this coming with dallas because weird factor it also felt like last week the texans the texans like unlocked something like to their credit and i feel like maybe we should have seen this coming with dallas because like they hate dallas because the cowboys yeah but like the thing they did with the with driscoll and wow damn we should change the rating on this stream jeff is removing the jacket it is a little toasty a little toasty you know it's fire picks man yeah that's right it's the heat of our takes and our picks. I thought it was really clever last week what they did to Dallas,

and now I feel like this week they're just going to suck. Having said that, the Chiefs can't beat anyone by more than seven. But if you're the Texans, do you, with the number one pick in the draft, do you take a look at Jalen Carter out of Georgia and then just wait for quarterback and take kayla williams next year or you just take your quarterback now it's a great question here williams is better than any than the guys this season i mean i don't think they're gonna fire lovey even

though they maybe should i'm not rooting for that obviously but like it feels like they want to do another year this rebuild like i i don't know i don't disagree so i i don't know i i'm curious so the we brought up micah parsons earlier he talked about how he doesn't think my whole or i'm sorry that hurts deserves to be mvp that he's like a system quarterback um are you getting a phone call right now my wife is my wife is uh is uh she answered so is she facetiming you yes yeah go for it this is this is all happening i'm on i'm on doing a podcast like i'm on the air right now it's happening oh that's why i texted you earlier hey do my podcast live oh i didn't catch that. I went and catch him with

shoe throwing. All right. Well, I'm on now. So can I call you back? Can you ask Meredith if she likes the Texans plus 14? Do you like the

Texans plus 14 against the Chiefs? Yeah. Do you know what city the Texans play in? Texas. Not incorrect.

Not a city, but close. Appreciate your effort. You're welcome your effort all right love you and bye um the star of the show as always is meredith it's always the star of the show she's the best she's fantastic uh not a football fan obviously um so uh let's just we're done with this game yeah all right moving on by the way does your okay does your wife like i have specific times i do things for work uh and she never remembers a single time i do anything for work yeah like i sent her i sent her many times hey hon i'm doing this live i even suggested she can watch it just no just did not pay attention at all yeah that's that happens i also like my week is just chaos but you're you have different i have a set times

we do things yeah like i have a radio each week the same time i have this well this just stays a little different this is the same time yep yeah my main thing is like i she at this point in the year and everyone is going through this, is like, there's what? There's football Saturday? Like what? I haven't told my wife. How do you have to watch all these? So I'm busy this Saturday,

so I'm going to miss the Bills game most likely. Got it. Because I have a button that's going to go to. It's at 4 Pacific. I'll just be texting you the whole time. Don't worry. I will for sure put it up on my phone at some point. But yeah,

like I haven't told my wife there's football Saturday. Like I scheduled, I basically scheduled a day without, I'm just not going to watch football Saturday, which it happens. but um yeah like i haven't told my wife there's football saturday and i scheduled i basically scheduled a day without i'm just not gonna watch football saturday which yeah it happens how about the christmas sunday like oh i got a few like so when are we like doing christmas stuff and it's like i can't just be like well there's football on i can't participate in anything that's not how this works so i always get asked to do uh work to do work on christmas because uh i'm jewish and it always is a day we're like yeah yeah like hey can you work great yeah so this year i specifically well they asked me to work i said great and the reason why i agreed to it was it's

during the afternoon and so i can just watch football while i work yeah i have to say like it's terrific yeah so the game i-Dolphins will be on during Christmas when I'm working. Feels like we're going to be betting on Packers in that game, doesn't it? It's in Miami though. They might be done

for the season. So, but yeah. The Saturday thing is tough. Yeah. Especially during football season, college football, when I have to sort of pay attention to both,

but I need a family day too. No one cares about my whining about what I'm watching. Let's get to the next game. Yeah, we have a good life. We get to watch football and get paid for it. The next game is- Wait, wait, wait.

You get paid? Yeah, right. Yeah, we get paid. This is just a total hobby. We get paid for this show? Who knew? Yeah. That's, yeah.

By the way, subscribe on Spotify, Apple, and leave us a review and tell all your friends. If you want us to get paid, that's how you do it. You subscribe, and we tell people that people listen to the show. That's right. Yeah. We're now a live show on Twitter. I mean, we're just a media empire.

Hey, Elon, come pay us. Let's go. Maybe not him. Let's move on to- Is anyone else in the office right now? Someone has to run the company. Yeah. Oh, sorry.

Too political. Okay, continue. Stick to sports. Let's go to Las Vegas where they're hosting the patriots i feel like by the way our text message plus one it would be so much people love like a show about our text messages i mean looking forward to each other okay well we're gonna should we talk about this for a minute sure all right so jeff played in the nfl obviously you know that if you're watching this and i'm the calm one who's

like hey there's still a quarter left we can still cover this game we're only down three oh but jeff has like an utter meltdown whenever anything doesn't break our way i know i i've done this long i know what's going to happen i'm talking about more of our other text messages which ones the political ones oh our political the life ones yeah i told jeff recently that like i follow politics and i just more closely than football even and i'm like sweet someone i could just bend to about stuff um all right let's get to patriots and raiders um this was interesting we're back on the rails yes we're back this is a contest this is uh raiders plus one in the contest you can get them yeah you can get the patriots plus one if you're into that um i absolutely love the raiders this week and i'm embarrassed to say it

out loud in front of our dozens of followers um but this is i think this is a really great spot to uh fade the patriots what do you think um i mean i could make the case but i'm giving you a chance you want you want the raiders i do the the main case is uh by low spot coming off of sure one of another horrible string of terrible losses uh i just want to go through the patriots schedule i think i've done this before and talk about the quarterbacks who they have beaten. Colt McCoy, they beat Mike White in the game. Or no, was it Mike White the week he came in? They beat the Jets 10-3.

No, that was Zach Wilson's last game. That's right. So it was Zach Wilson's last game. It was Sam Ellinger's last game. It was Zach Wilson again. They lost to Fields. They beat Brissette. Something like over 80% of their wins this year have been against backup quarterbacks. This is by far the best offense that they would beat if they were to win this game. Carr is better at home. He's better with extended rests. I just think that this is a

really good spot to bet against a team who is way better on paper than the patriots it's just the raiders but the raiders last five games lost to jeff saturday colts beat the broncos um beat the seahawks in overtime beat the chargers lost some real wins lost the rams yeah i'm with you here because everyone's going to be on the Patriots this week, right? Everyone. You would think. I mean, who wants to bet the Raiders after last week? No one does? Yeah. Raiders have a little more rest. But what about the Josh McDaniels, Bill Belichick thing?

Does that matter? I feel like that's my job to ask you as media guy who never did anything. Who cares? The Raiders are the sharp play this week. It's Patricia McDaniels, really. I'm with you on the Raiders, I think. Cool. Oh, they're going to take Devontae Adams out? Raiders minus one or plus one?

Plus one. Yeah. You got to do it. I just don't buy the patriots at all and we need some games we do need some games all right i i remember those are new year this is a joint venture obviously we're gonna choose the game together but if matt loves a game where i love a game it's going in like we've we've lost too many games this year that we haven't done that i get what you're doing you're putting you're putting the responsibility of betting on the

raiders completely on my shoulders. Did we lose them? I told you so. Yep, that's going to happen. All right, next game here should be just a swell football game. Great stat from Hank. Before we move on, Belichick, 18-19 all-time as a head coach against former coaches and players.

Wow, okay. Interesting. So a good spot. Against the spread. No, straight up. Oh, okay. We don't know that. Okay.

Yeah, really good. Good stat, Hank. Okay, Cardinals-Broncos. wow okay interesting so a good spread no straight up oh okay they don't know that okay yeah really good good stat hank uh okay cardinals broncos we're not even going to discuss because we don't know who the quarterbacks are right mccoy and potentially rip in i think even if we did i don't care yeah i kind of like mccoy better than carla to be honest uh but we can't in good conscience tell correct spend their money on this all right right. Great. Moving on. Titans Chargers, 430 Sunday. God, man. I just don't let me bet on the Titans again. I know.

Don't let me do it. I know. That's what my first thought was. Do not let me do it. Even though the Chargers have the worst run defense I've ever seen, even though the Titans are at a huge buy low spot and the Chargers are super overvalued because they just had a national primetime win. Don't let me do it. I'm putting primetime win. Don't let me do it.

I'm putting the maybe category. Don't let me do it. I can't do it, man. Titans plus three. God, they're getting off. They're getting 87% of the money. Chargers? The Titans.

They're the smart play of the week. They're off. We're off that game. Are we off? Titans need it. Thank God. This is why we do this together. The Titans need this win in the worst way, obviously, right?

And you're exactly right. The Chargers last weekend had this big national TV win. But now they've got the Titans' defense, which is much different than the Dolphins' defense. The Dolphins do not run the ball for some reason. They get the Titans' rushing attack. But the Titans have not played good ball this year against playoff teams because they're just not as good.

They haven't beaten one good team. And they're super beat up. And Ryan Tannehill on the road. So many reasons to take the Chargers in this game. If they're healthy, they're better. That stinks. But again, like, Chargers get three points at home.

No. I'm good with pass on this. This is when every line from here gets really confusing. By the way, this is where it shifts. Under Vrabel, Titans have lost 13 games by double digits. They're 9-4, one against the spread in their next game. They bounce back well, of course. Yeah.

The Chargers did look different this week. Granted, it was the Dolphins, and they've been on a little bit of a downswing, but they just, they, they had the look that, and we haven't really talked much about Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but like they were both finally healthy.

They were both made a huge difference. They looked incredible. Like finally you remember why Herbert is just so good. Like just getting the ball out to those guys, third downs. So yeah, it's just a pass. I just,

I don't know if I can have another heartbreak with the titans uh okay weirdest line of the week bangles bucks uh the bucks who are three nine and one against the spread this year are only three and a half point home dogs to the hottest team in the league and sincey who have the best record against the spread. Who are healthy. Oh, geez. Who, I know, it's like, I don't get, I just don't, I know we can't take Cincy. Like, it's the hook, it's a road favorite. But, and it's like the sharp guys are all over the Bucs.

But what, at what point can we just admit that the Bucs aren't going to turn it on this year? I know they have to win this because they can, win this because they have to keep pacing the division. We've said that for a while that they have to win these games. We say it every week, and they never win. They never cover. I feel like this is just not based on what's actually happened on the field this year, this line. Three and a half, that's a good number.

It's just the number, and I get it. That's why you would take it. I don't know. The Bengals are going to fall on their face soon, I guess. There's no real football reason I think you would take the Bucs in this spot other than we hope it turns around this week. Yeah, that's it. Feels like an under game.

Yep. The under will be good in this game. Hope's not a strategy. But I just don't – like, I can sell Seahawks plus three and a half at home tonight. I can sell a bunch of the points we made. Because they can score. But I can't really sell.

I mean, the Bengals have to win this game 21-17 to cover. They don't have to. They can win this game 45-3. They really could. Tampa's so bad. So if you took Tampa here, you're basically just saying, hey, they're going to be different than they were the first 14 weeks of the season. Yeah.

And they just don't have an offense. The Bucs are going to end up winning this game by three probably. The Bucs last, let's see. So last week they put up seven. They can't score. Against the Saints they put up 17 and they should have lost. They put up 17 against the Browns, 21 against Seattle in their best game of the season, 16 against the Rams. They just can't keep pace.

We can't do it. I can't bet on them anymore. Like they just, they've let us down so many times. We can't do it. But we can't take the Bengals either, right? No. No. All right.

Okay. We've only got two games left.'s a big one yeah the commandantes all right are hosting your new york giants not my new york giants they're more yours than mine yeah uh i don't know why i've said you're for like 800 different teams but you did play for them uh the commanders are four and a half point favorites and and I am petrified of Taylor Heineke laying that much in a game that Washington has to have. But I don't know. The only smart play is the Giants here,

but I'm not feeling it either. I'm sure you have some doubts about whether they can keep this game, if they can win this game. Yeah. I really want to take Washington. Okay. Talk to me. The Gi me the giants are pumpkin dude like they're they're terrible they're the team we thought they were going to be all season yeah they were six and one they're seven five and one now that one being the washington game washington should have won

that game multiple different times yep and they've had two weeks to prepare for a rematch because they didn't play last weekend yeah giantsants played last weekend, did not look good again. I just... I hate the number. Four and a half is so stinky. But I just think the Washington's going to kick their butts, dude. So talk to me about this. Because people have made this point,

but it's not been that the Washington's had two weeks to prepare for this team. It's since the Falcons game on November 27th, the 28th of November, they started preparing for the giants. It's December 15th. They played December 18th. That's 20 days to prepare for one team.

Like how that's gotta be an enormous advantage, right? Oh yeah. I mean, yes, enormous, but you have to execute obviously your assignments and it happened, for one team like how that's got to be an enormous advantage right oh yeah i mean yes enormous but you have to execute obviously your assignments and it happened but i just and maybe there's a thirst to have the faith the giants after we we lost the i guess we haven't lost technically they're under wagers yeah half right um i think we're toast but But man, the Giants just are not good. Yeah. They're not good. What are they? Giants are at... Their DVOA is 24th.

Washington is 17th. Four and a half is a terrible number. It's awful. Terrible. But I do like Washington with this game by a touchdown. Enough to put it in? We don't have many great options yeah i it's funny i almost feel like i'd rather take my chances with cincy than take my chances with washington i mean this is either this is a game washington either blows it horribly and heads

roll or washington like has their moment and like wins and then everybody loves them for the rest of the season and then they disappoint everyone. Who's more likely to play a better game, the Giants or the Bucs? If we're debating these two. Probably the Giants. They can at least, I mean, we've seen it at least. The Giants could have won that game if,

was it Slayton? Who had that deep drop? I don't remember. There were a few like really bad drops uh in the last game i put in the maybe category all right so them that's fine um my flex game sunday night football i have a my friends uh is the is on the production team of sunday night football and he was like oh i'm going to fedex field for the first time he's been there for like 10 years like i've never been there i heard it's a dump and i was like, oh, I'm going to FedEx Field for the first time. He's been there for like 10 years.

He's like, I've never been there. I heard it's a dump. And I was like, yep, you're right. There you go. See the tickets. You see tickets still? No, we did. We did. We saw a lot of losses, buddy.

And a few of them were too. You would have been in the crowd for that Chiefs game when I was there. I was not, but I was in the crowd for the Vikings game. Oh. The RG3 game. Oh. That was a fun year. RG3 would be wild on social media.

Yeah. Yeah, he's really in his bag, isn't he? All right, last game. I don't think we'll spend a ton of time on it. The Rams plus seven. Baker's back, baby, at the Packers. I mean, the play would be the Rams. I just don't know why you would have faith in a quarterback that we've seen.

I mean, incredible. You probably talked about this, gave a good amount. Incredible effort by him and McVay, but I don't buy it. The incredible effort netted 17 points. Yeah. And it took

a whole heck of a lot to get 17 points. The Raiders obviously misplayed the end of their drive. The Raiders obviously misplayed the end of their drive. Yep. The Raiders committing two penalties on the final drive to move them down the field. The Raiders calling bad coverage, and Baker took advantage of that, obviously.

But I don't think he'll have the same success this weekend. However, that offense continues to be super quarterback friendly. And it has worked for Jared Goff. My ax is back. It worked for Jared Goff. It has worked for Matt Stafford. it has worked for Jared Goff. My ax is back. It worked for Jared Goff. It has worked for Matt Stafford. It has worked for John Wolford. It's worked for Baker Mayfield.

It worked for Aaron Rodgers. It worked for Tuatango Lailoa. It worked for Kirk Cousins. It worked for Matt Ryan back when he won the MVP in 16. It works for all these quarterbacks. And so while I don't think Baker's very good, he has a week to prepare for this game, I think offensively they're going to be fine it's a packers team that really is not terribly good

much of anything yeah i just don't i don't think there's a way to get a read on this no and seven's a lot of points it's a lot if the rams are the rams the rams are a bad team that's still playing hard because they don't have a draft pick to tank for. Yep. Yeah. It's like all these. Hank did a great job. There's lots of great stats in here about McVay with rest and whatever.

It's like, but we've never seen this. Green Bay. I don't know. Green Bay's looking a little bit bad. McVay with rest with different quarterbacks. The quarterback that didn't sign 10 days ago. I see all these Bill Belichick stats all the time. Got to throw him out.

About like how, I'm like, but he's not in Tom Brady anymore. Yeah. Like it doesn't matter. Yeah, it's Matt Patricia and his son as his top coaches. It's so silly. All right, so. We have six, right? Well, I have Seattle plus three and a half.

Love. Buffalo minus seven. Love. Jets plus one. Great. Raiders plus one, right? My favorite. And then we have to choose either Titans plus three, which we said no to, Washington or Cincinnati.

God. What do you think? I think no to the Titans, right? I think no to the Manders, too. So just Cincinnati? Do we love Heineken land four and a half? No, but I feel like... But Cincinnati is so...

It's so square. That hook is so gross. Let's say Washington doesn't cover that game. What did that open at? The Titans plus... That opened at three and a half and got bet up. If the Titans, if the Bucs cover that game, we'll be like, see, I told you so, right?

Like, we knew it. We knew better. But if Washington doesn't cover, I don't think we feel that same way. I don't know. Four and a half is a lot. Or we just, or Matt, do we just take Tennessee plus three and just do it?

I think that's pretty responsible. I mean, I don't... I think the Manders is... We'll get on. It's your team you root for. Let's not wager on that. The Bengals, to me, is just like a hunch, and those are not... I think the Titans are a very responsible play, but we could get absolutely crushed in that.

Like, the Chargers could... But they're the Chargers. What am I talking about? I think the Titans are a very responsible play, but we could get absolutely crushed in that. Like the Chargers could, but they're the Chargers. What am I talking about? Are the Titans that bad? You have to check me on the Titans because every week I'm like, I like the Titans, I like the Steelers.

Because they're world coached, but they have not played well recently. So maybe we can check out the injury report here because it doesn't seem like like if Burks doesn't play then they could be in some trouble. Let's see. We're looking this up. This is great TV here. Tannehill a little banged up. Burks is questionable. Did not practice Wednesday.

Yeah. Or we also have, I guess, Jacksonville plus four. No, not doing it. I would consider Dallas. Um, your call,

man, your name's on the show. I'm not, I'm look, any of these three, I'm fine with Tennessee. I think is Tennessee is like the responsible play.

If you have a feel on either the Manders or the Bengals... I see that Tennessee comes out and says, we're going to run the football. Which they have to. The Chargers are not going to win that game. Not going to cover the three, I don't think. Let's take them. All right, we'll do Titans then.

Let's do it. Titans. Seattle plus three and a half tonight. Buffalo minus seven. Jets plus one. Raiders plus one. Titans plus three. These look like a good five to me. Five and oh, baby. We need it. We need it. I like tonight's pick the best, I think.

Yeah, I really like that. It's a perfect wager for Thursday Night Football. All right, everyone. We did it. We did it. We did a live show. Hope you guys enjoyed it. Now we're going to get some tacos and burritos and eat a lot of food. Let's go. And I'm very excited for that. Thank you for tuning in.

Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network and powered by whatever acts is in the Blue Duck Studios. A lot of fun. Thank you guys for tuning in. Hope you enjoyed the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with a recap of all the NFL action. Have a great weekend, everyone. Good luck with your wagers.

Oh, lastly, I forgot. Yeah. Have a great weekend, everyone. Good luck with your wagers. Oh, lastly, I forgot. Yeah. Bowls this weekend. Ooh. Oregon State's fair by 10.5 over Florida. Wager gets to 10 and take Oregon State. Bowl confidence picks. I love the Beavers in this game.

I think Washington Cougars to cover 3.5 against Fresno as well. So two Pac-12 games. Remember, that's the only thing I'm good at, essentially. So take those games, please. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. Talk to you guys on Tuesday.