Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 16

Episode Date: December 22, 2022

Geoff and Matt make their picks for the five best bets of this holiday weekend. Riding high off Chandler Jones' crazy touchdown to cover last week, the boys are looking to keep the momentum going in Week 16. Most games are on Saturday this week, so make sure to get your bets in ahead of time. You don't want to miss out!Be sure to leave a rating and a comment to let us know you enjoyed the show, and follow the pod to get notifications when new episodes drop twice a week.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday december 22nd i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this jeff schwartz is smart you're powered by the varsity podcast network it's our weekend wagering preview we will go through all the games we will find five sides we like we'll throw some props in there along the way matt happy holidays to you it is hanukkah right now and it's christmas this weekend hope everyone has a great holiday weekend watching all the football that they can manage. How you doing, buddy? I'm doing good. I ran into my kooky neighbor this morning and he said, happy holidays, but most importantly,

happy solstice. And then he was like, you know what the solstice is? And I was like, dude, I have to go record a podcast with my buddy and take the Steelers for the millionth straight week. I don't have time for you to talk about the sun cycle, my guy. So my kids know this, though. Like my son the other day, I was like, it's winter break. And he's like, no, it's not. I'm like, okay, yes, Wednesday is winter, son.

Okay? Like he's very literal. He's like, nope, nope, the 21st is winter solstice. So we are. Alex is lockstep with the lunar calendar. He's like, nope, nope. The 21st is winter solstice. So we are. Alex is lockstep with the lunar calendar. Let's go. He is locked in. Very an eight-year-old boy thing to do.

We've had some rough COVID, right? We've had three really bad weeks. But surprisingly, we're only four under 500. So we're still within striking distance for the last three weeks of the season to finish with a winning record. Hopefully even better than that. We're probably out of the green unless we have like 15 straight wins in a row to end this season. But we're still going to get us back to 500. And, you know, when you start losing, you have to think about why that is, right?

And I think that we really – I don't feel like we – at the end of each weekend, when I look at that record, I don't think we've done bad per se. Just had some things just, we've had quarterbacks get hurt in games. Teams that just, the Jets falter on defense the last drive of the game. We did get lucky with that Raiders. The Raiders played end. Were you still in the bar when that happened? Yes. And so Jeff and I watched the late window Sunday together.

Yes. And we had a great time, but we were in the dumps, guys. Like we were staring at an 0-5. Like it was getting pretty real. And we were like, oh my God, like what is happening? A total life reevaluation. Then we got the push with the Titans. That one sort of came back to life.

Jeff was talking about, we were really starting to doubt ourselves. Jeff was doing the, Hey, we should have taken Tampa. And I was on Cincy. And then since he blew the doors off and I was like, okay,

we're getting back. And then I'm Jeff goes home. I'm sitting in the bar. And like, at that point, like a lot of people sort of cleared out. I was working on a rundown for a different show. And I look up to see this stupid hill mary or not hill mary attempt thing no one's looking at the

screen because the sound was down right and it's and shale jones gets the ball grounds back jones and i go oh oh god oh what's happening and like no one's paying attention and the guy next to me is like what just happened and i was like dude you have to see this i think this was the craziest thing i've ever seen but like no one was really clocking it but yeah because it wasn't i just the game was i was watching red zone channel and they just had a split screen like it wasn't i think the other games were more exciting and i was like oh reminder just running the ball out no oh my god um and then by the way uh obviously you know your your co-worker, Nick Wright, someone I've worked with a couple times on First Things First,

the best bit of the week, by far, has been his troll of Kevin Wilds on First Things First. It has been – it's given me life. It is so funny. So, yeah, the Patriots are down right now, down and out. Raiders somehow – the Raiders have – have we even talked about – I know we don't talk about the Raiders very much in the show. So the last like six weeks,

they lost to the Jeff Saturday Colts, okay? They won two games in the last play of the game in overtime, right? Yep. They then lost to Baker Mayfield and the Rams. And then won on whatever this, yeah, whatever this thing is we're calling

from Sunday. That's like five of their last six games. I think maybe the strangest team of all time. And there are some weeks where their offense looks unbelievable. We were talking about how good Mac Hollins is, and we were like, this guy would be the best offensive player on the Patriots by a mile. And he's like their wide receiver four when things are going right in Las Vegas.

And it's just, they're such a weird team but i i felt really good that that's how we got back on the board with our brutal one three and one i just when that i mean i thought romandre was gonna score like he broke that one tackle and he was it just looked like he had so much daylight and i was like if we lose because the raiders can't make a tackle on a draw play, I was like, it was a real roller coaster. But yeah, what a funny game. Yeah, it was. It was funny. But let's talk about this week.

Remember, game Thursday, bunch of games Saturday for Christmas Eve and then Sunday, as usual, three games, but more private. I'm going to have to tell my wife I'm watching football Saturday. I don't know how that's going to go, me luck on that one what is gonna happen like how are we supposed to manage this dude like i i genuinely don't understand like when i'm supposed to a lot right you don't watch that thing is like normally so saturdays typically i do family things instead of college football and then i catch up at the end of the day i feel less inclined to do that now so right but the the way that's supposed to be, but here's my plan.

It's Wednesday right now is we're recording this. All parents are going to get this. I'm going to play date the shit out of my kids Saturday afternoon. Like we're going to have just a party at the house. We're going to have like every friend come over and I'm just going to be like watching on the couch. I don't need volume.

I don't care about volume. And just like the kids are playing by themselves. They're at the age now where they, like if my son has a friend come over, I won't see him for three hours. They'll be playing video games. I will never see him for three hours. I'm going to play this show to my kids on Saturday

to make it work. It's really smart. I kind of hope that I could do that with my in-laws because I would really like to watch these games, dude. Like I don't know like it i honestly was starting to try to negotiate the like okay on christmas on sunday like you know i have to watch these for for work right like and it's hard for me to to explain that to people who don't you know work in media at all let alone in sports it's like sorry to my wife yeah exactly who like who like schedules a trip to whistler next month i'm like yeah guess who how will you afford that trip yeah this stupid

podcast i do um so no i'm like yeah like yeah this is why i watch sports you have to work and pay attention yes yeah so we can come on here and give you guys the wrong picks it's like we gotta watch so that we can be informed um but yeah it's gonna be a really bizarre weekend man i i don't i don't exactly know how i'm gonna play it uh with the family but we'll see it also hasn't helped us win any games so maybe we need to watch less football yeah well this weekend will be the good test because i don't know when i'm gonna have time but uh we will definitely have a good slate this week. So let's get started with the game tonight.

If you're listening Thursday, Jaguars, Jets, this line's bounced around a bit. I think you can get plus one on either side. What do you think? Well, the Jets are unplayable with Zach Wilson at quarterback. You just can't take them. Zach Wilson, the offense against the Lions was bad, bad, bad. Oh shit, let me make a play.

Throw the ball up in the air, hope somebody catches it. That was the Jets offense. And then you have a Jets defense who, you know, their job obviously is to, and they've been doing, they've been good at it, is to stop the opposing team. And then as soon as they have an opportunity to do that right there's opportunity to end the game you finally got the lead somehow you have the lead and you let the lions march down the field with their four-string tight end scoring a 50-yard touchdown

to win the game like i i'm just out on the jets i'm out on the jets um. The Jaguars are hot. They're playing good football. They can smell a little bit of the division right now. I took a Jaguars over seven and a half wins when they were, when they started slow, I think it was, when they were kind of the losing stretch this year. And that's when I got it. Or maybe when they started fast.

I forget how I did. So I'm hoping they win this game. They need two more wins titans texas titans for that to hit um they're playing good ball they beat tennessee they beat the cowboys overtime i mean i would lean just square man here and take jacksonville um plus the the one but i don't know if it's one of my favorites yeah i've it's actually up to Jets 1.5 is the consensus now. Oh, wow. Okay, so it would be Jaguars minus the.5. Plus, yeah. So I think that it's – I don't get this line at all.

A Thursday night game in cold weather on a short week for both teams that had pretty strange games last week feels a little bit like a stay away to me. But now I'm like, why are they making it so tempting to take Jacksonville? They're such a public team. They're getting all the bets and all the money again, just like last week against Dallas. Well, doesn't Jacksonville historically stink on the road too?

Stink on the road. They also lost Cam Robinson. So, you know, who't Jacksonville historically stink on the road too? Stink on the road. They also lost Kim Robinson. So, you know, who knows how that's going to affect their, their past protection in Lawrence. I just, this one feels fishy to me. I think if I had to make a pick, I would just grab the, I would probably just take the Jacksonville money line. But this is not one I would feel super confident in. I don't know about you. No, I'm, I'm, I'm not playing this one, no.

Yeah, okay. Okay, so out of Thursday and moving to Saturday, we'll try to keep track of what window these games are in. The first one we're going to do is Saints-Browns. 20 to 25 mile an hour winds in Cleveland. It's going to be freezing. The line right now is two and a half or maybe three, depending on your book.

We had a surprised Nick Chubb DNP, which I think definitely would affect anyone who would want to take Cleveland's here. What do you think? All right. So the total for this game is like 31, by the way.

Remember, guys, for weather games, it's about the wind and not really the cold and whether it's going to be really windy in this game. I don't think the Saints can compete in this game. Not that the Browns are great at all, but Watson's not great. I don't think they're going to be great, but a dome team on the road with a quarterback who's like armed and can translate well to the cold weather. I'm okay with the Browns here, honestly.

Mine is two and a half. It's not one of my favorites of the week. But if we're down one, like the Browns can win this game nine to three. I mean, I don't know if the Saints are going to score very much in this game. This is possibly going to be the lowest, uh, game total since 2008. Um,

where if we get under 32, um, I think this is probably just like a guaranteed under. These are two running teams anyway. Uh, that's pretty much like where all the people are betting this week. It's just the under the, under the um man i i really don't know what to what to do here and i have no interest in putting this one in unless you're really strong but i do lean that way because with what you just

said it's just like i don't know where the saints offense comes from unless it's just, you know, Camara just waking up. And Cleveland's, you know, it's not fun. They're not like this great comeback story, but they have looked better the last few weeks. But if Chubb is even a little bit compromised with all this weird weather variance and the short week, like, it just feels like a pass to me. I'm with you. I'm out. I mean, like I i said i'd be okay with with the browns but not probably one of my five favorites yeah and also i'm also saving like

my really square play ish for another game and you have to maybe deal with it okay i texted you yeah yeah yeah i have a feeling i know what it is um All right. Well, this is a really strange line to me. The Falcons are at Baltimore. The Ravens are laying seven and a half. So I assume that this means Lamar is coming back. But does that even matter? Like, when's the last time Lamar covered seven and a half? Yeah.

It doesn't really do not look terribly great last week, right? Like, this to me is, is just, I don't, I would, I think if the Falcons had any competent quarterback play, you take it plus seven and a half here,

right? But, I don't know anything from Ritter on the road, and it's, in, you know, in the weather. Most games this weekend,

by the way, are going to be cold, across the entire country. They're going to be cold, and windy, and miserable. I, by the way, are going to be cold. Across the entire country, they're going to be cold and windy and miserable. I, in the Ravens, 7.5? The Ravens, I think it's just a stay away from me.

It makes no sense. The total in this is 37.5. So you're talking, like, what does that mean score-wise? Like, this is going to be a, a you know 27 to 17 type of game like is that what they're predicting i don't know i i don't see it or sorry it's 17 to 16 i don't it's like it's just such a strange number um i think that i'm like very inclined to push for the Falcons here just based on the number because there are two teams that are just going to run the ball no matter what. If Lamar plays, Lamar is not going to be back there throwing to, first of all, nobody. Tevron Duvernay just went on IR. There isn't a lot going on with that Ravens offense, this Falcons offense.

They're not going to go make Desmond Ritter win the game they're just going to try to pound it with Algier and Patterson um I just feel like this game is going to be close and this number just really stood out to me but it's obviously a really ugly play um but it it's we can probably do better but like this is a stunning seven and a half I feel like. Atlanta's defense is 30th in TVOA. Not great. No, I think we stand away from this one. Yeah, I think we have to, but this is just such a strange... I mean, Baltimore, last couple weeks,

they put up three last week at Cleveland, 16 against Pittsburgh, 10 against Denver, lost to Jacksonville, put up 27, and put up three last week at cleveland's 16 against pittsburgh 10 against denver lost to jacksonville put up 27 and put up 13 against carolina it's like they're just not going to blow this team out oh no i i i'm with you on the idea they're not going to blow anyone out like they just but i just don't know i mean you can win this game 20 to 10 and cover you know yeah all right let's definitely pass that uh also because I don't really want to pay attention to it at all. This one I might hate watch because how fun is it to watch the Patriots continue to just stink? Cincy, once again, road favorite, laying three at the Pats. Last week we passed on them laying three and a half at Tampa.

Would you be interested in Joe Burrow as a road favorite this week? I would not. No. I actually would take the Patriots if I was – if I like – I mean, the Patriots – everyone's off the Patriots, right? Yep. They're off of them. They – you know, their offense – and look, they should be off of them.

Their offense is terrible, right? They're 25th in DVOA. They're yelling and screaming at each other. The defense though is really good. They're second right now in DVOA. They're yelling and screaming at each other. The defense, that was really good. They're second right now in DVOA. And I think we saw last weekend, Tampa Bay was really able to disrupt a lot of what Cincinnati wanted to do. The Bengals score a lot of points off turnovers,

as they should, right? I mean, you know, if Tampa's going to turn the ball over, you should be able to get points off of that, especially on short fields. But this feels like the game we used to always to always like just take right you have a team

at home getting points who look terrible last time we saw them play versus a team off a road win who's done everything right i mean there's a legit possibility they win the afc again i think right now they're playing the best in the afc against a patriots team who needs this win who's looking to bounce back i thought in the past we've been all over this at plus three. Yeah, I can't do it though, right? Like, first of all, every week the Bengals are, you should go against them, but every week they cover. They've covered 19 of 22.

They're a public team every week. Despite all that, they just keep covering. Burrow's amazing in cold weather, undefeated against the spread and straight up in under 40 degrees. they're a public team every week they're despite all that they just keep covering burrows amazing in cold weather undefeated against the spread and straight up and under 40 degrees he's really good 20 and 6 against the spread in teams that are over five that are 500 or above which the patriots are and mac jones is awful like the the patriots are seem to be like this totally dysfunctional offense and i could see this playing a lot like the game last week against tampa where like it was kind of close early and then you know they just

can't keep up with the firepower of the bangles offense but it's not the right play like you have to take the patriots if you're taking this um i will say though the three is a nice we're catching that at a really nice time that's been a three three and a half um for most of the week so if you're getting three if any of you like cincy that's probably the number to look for um but i i have sort of a parallel conversation here jeff you can get the bangles plus 1000 to get the one seed in the afc the bills are minus money and the Chiefs are like plus 150, I think. The Bengals play New England this week, obviously. Then they play Buffalo next week. And then they play the Ravens the last week. And by that point, who knows what's going on with either

of those teams. Is it crazy the Chiefs have three easy looking games? Seattle, the Broncos, and the Raiders. The Bills have Chicago this week, then Cincy, then New England. Is it crazy to think that plus 1,000 for that is a pretty good bet? I mean, it's a better number probably than if you parlayed them to win the Moneyline three straight weeks, right? Yeah. So if they beat, it's really, can they win this one?

And then if they beat Buffalo. Well, the Chiefs have to lose. The Chiefs have to lose. That's it. Which, who knows? I mean, the Week 18 game against Vegas is the Chiefs have to lose the Chiefs have to lose that's it which who knows like I mean the week 18 game against Vegas is the only one they might lose but that means Vegas has to be playing for something yeah they almost lost to Denver already like it's possible it's just it's not great I think maybe the Chiefs are the play at plus 150 then um because it does feel like

Buffalo might drop one more well yeah i mean if buffalo drops one to the bangles like that she's gonna be rooted for the bangles like that's very very easy right yeah yeah i guess but as long as they take care of business it's a fascinating one it's uh it just doesn't feel like buffalo is gonna win that one seed so anyway are we uh are we passing on on uh i know we are i feel like we're missing on games now but yeah we're passing for now all right well what about this one bills bears uh speaking of the bills the bears wow are we really looking at a nine and a half here let's take a look at what the latest is um yeah eight and a half is what i see now but let's take a look around i see a nine in a few places um any interest in chicago here

i think um i think you i think you have to take chicago here right i think so um buffalo off an emotional divisional win um it's also a big number that they haven't been covering, right? They haven't been covering same with the Chiefs, by the way. Hadn't been covering these big numbers recently. We saw them lackluster game against the Jets that ended up winning by eight points as a big...

They beat the Lions by three a couple weeks ago, a month ago. Browns by eight. I'm okay with taking the Bears here. I don't feel great about it, but they can run the ball. We saw Miami run the ball really well against the Bills, and that can keep the game close. However, the Bears' defense is bad.

We're going to be fighting for this one, man. But nine points at home is a lot in the NFL, and the Bears team is feisty. They play hard, and I think that it's probably the right place to be. I think so. The Bills have covered one of their last eight. Traditionally, this is a spot where teams that have a great winning percentage against teams that are bad winning percentages, under 25% since

2020. When this game plays out, the Bears are covering two-thirds of the time. I'll just simplify that stat a little bit. The Bears obviously give up a lot of points, but Josh Allen traditionally hasn't covered against teams that give up a lot of points. This just feels like it'll maybe start a little bit slow. And then all of a sudden it'll just be like a touchdown, touchdown, touchdown,

touchdown. And it'll end up being, you know, it could be a seven point win for, for the bills. That doesn't even really feel like it was a close game and they still don't cover it. And we cover and we cover.

Yeah. And you know, I think this is also like, I don't know, Christmas Eve. Like, doesn't this just feel like the Justin Fields at home in the cold? Like, this is the game where he plays.

He has just like a crazy game and they end up losing, but everyone loses their minds. I would be happy that Bill's lost. Yeah. Almost last weekend to a much better Dolphins team. I'm fine with putting the Bears in here. I'm good with it. Okay. Let's put the bears in through the

maybes um god what is this deal the giants are at the vikings three and a half four for minnesota they get the extra rest uh compared to the giants i i don't know what to do here man i i can we just take the giants and like take a well-coached football team that finishes games well? Or is that too much? The Vikings are what now? 11 wins, 10 wins, 10-0 in one-score games, I believe? Yeah. 10-0 in one-score games.

They have a plus-two point differential. Yeah. I mean, I just don't get it with the Giants. Like, I watched them play that whole game, and they just, they don't ever make a really dumb mistake. That's their formula. That's what it is. That's what it is. And that is okay.

That is a trait. I said this when we talked about the Chiefs and Bengals, right? The Chiefs make too many mistakes, and the Bengals don't make mistakes. There's a quality to not making mistakes. The Vikings are a mistake team. They make mistakes all the time. If you're the Giants,

you play your game, you run the football, you play physical defense. By the way, their defense line is playing much better as they got healthy. The young players, some more snaps recently. Plus four points? Sign me dude like the vikings this year had to have how many leads have they had where they have blown the lead how many times have they been down obviously last weekend and blew and blew that lead like that's been their

season like the games end up being i'm gonna text you john's gonna be on 17 nothing i'll be like matt yeah this one and they're gonna lose 24 21 yep i think that's probably right i'm fine with this the four is a nice number um let's see how the pros are betting this one looks like the pros are on minnesota for now i think i think the four is i don't know it's interesting i i'm with you the giants are the smart player one thing right now about this the pros versus joe's thing that's interesting is that most of the pros either come in right when the line is out or they come in on Sunday. Yep.

That's true. So, like, it's hard to sometimes judge today where the money is going to be at on Sunday because, again, most sharps will – again, if anything, the number's way off, they'll poach right away. They'll jump on it right away. But if not, they'll wait until Sunday. and that's when you see that those major line movements yeah yep and uh i think yeah i it's really hard to uh to weigh in this early in the week and i

think that we've we've you and i have had some success with the live betting lately and i i wonder if that's like the way around you know all these sharps that can really sort of like figure out the pace of the week in a way that you can't really, if you're just sort of following it and making your bets. I will say that the live betting guys is great to do, but you have to be watching the game to do it. Yep. You,

you cannot live bet. I mean, you surely can, but you, you cannot live bet. I mean, you surely can. But you cannot live bet, in my opinion, unless you are watching the game as it unfolds. I agree. And so I just kind of just like, as you're doing it,

like make sure that you are watching, you're paying attention. And if you do that, you have a chance to win a lot of money. If not, you're maybe going to get a little bit screwed and not know what's happening. Yep. I'm with you. It's a great strategy. You really have to be calm about it and not overreact, not chase.

The times where I've had my biggest losses live betting are where I'm just doubling down on a position that is just wrong. My most famous one was last year, the bills patriots playoff game where the line was like pretty big and i we like new england in that and then if you recall that was the game buffalo won like 50 to zero like it was just like the biggest blowout of like belichick's career and i just kept betting the patriots like they're not gonna lose by 30 30. Okay. They're not going to lose by 40. Yeah. Whatever the number was.

At some point, you're just like, you just got to let it go. Yeah. But it is a nice way around, you know, these bookmakers who do this all, think about it all week and get it right. Okay. Moving on to the game in your hometown. The Panthers are plus three to the blazing hot detroit lions everything in the world is telling you to take carolina here plus the three um are you willing to do that i don't know man i don't know it is right this is the line's third straight road game i believe right

yes i think it is um third straight road no Vikings at home they're back in the cold on the road oh geez yeah I mean if you're playing this you're playing the Panthers this is you've noticed the

public love for Detroit now is huge this is presently a two and a half, by the way. So if you can find a three. Oh, there is a book with a three. If you can find a three and go chase that, I don't think that you're going to get it for very long. Yeah, I mean, it's going to be freezing there, right?

So golf again on the road outdoors last week didn't matter. It's like weirdly cold and sharp this weekend. Yeah. It's the 30s, yeah. He's just, I mean, they're just not as good outdoors. The Carolina defense is very good, especially against the run. Carolina, one game out of the playoffs. You know, I just feel like this game is going to be a surprise and close game,

just like Carolina's game last week. Carolina's game most weeks. Detroit, I don't see Detroit running away with this, but they could. They could, man. I mean, Detroit could end up winning out the rest of the season. Panthers, Bears, Packers. Doesn't it just feel like they're too hot? Everyone's just so in love with them.

Absolutely. Dan Campbell's the coach of the year favorite. I thought last weekend was going to be the weekend where they kind of all dropped back to earth, and it didn't. Yeah. Yeah. I don't think they're going to win out,

but I don't know if it's going to be here. I mean, let's see. Detroit, who do they have the next week? They have Bears and Packers. Yeah. So, yeah. Pretty weak schedule interesting um i'm fine to pass on this because i don't like putting my life on the line with sam darnold but i i wasn't intrigued by this line um all right this next game we only have one choice if we're if we're interested in it it's seattle at kc uh kc is laying 10 another huge line

for a team that can't cover big numbers um but seattle has really fallen apart lately so yeah i have a feeling this might not be one of our favorites i mean seattle plus 10 i think is the only way you play this game yeah um and i would be okay doing it. But I just don't like betting on the team I'd like to root for. But I think it's certainly the play to make here. The Chiefs don't cover big spreads. I said this on Twitter the other day. I really believe this. When the Chiefs, Matt, are three-point favorites or worse,

essentially, right? They're 3-point, 2-point, 1-pointer underdogs. I love them in that spot. Anything over a touchdown runs the other side right away. Seattle, it has not mattered who the Chiefs have played. They allow a ton of points. They had the Broncos best offensive output all season two weeks ago. The Texans scored the most points they had scored this week four against the Chiefs. The turnovers, the fumbles, the missed field goals, the missed PATs. They're just not – they don't rush the passer very well.

Seattle's desperate for this win. They have to win in the worst way. They have to. It's going to be like six degrees, so they're going to run the football. I would be fine taking Seattle here. I go kind of against like my, you know, not betting on teams I root for against – but I would be fine with Seattleattle here i go kind of against like my my you know not betting on teams i root for against but i would be fine with seattle plus 10 yeah they've uh the seahawks have not covered

their last five um which is the longest streak in seattle in uh since 2003 which is crazy um yeah we've talked plenty about my homes with these big numbers and how important this is to seattle i just think this is you know you don't have to think too hard about this one it is interesting that this opened at 10 and a half and has moved towards the uh towards the cheat or towards the seahawks um i don't know i just think you kind of have to do this. The Chiefs aren't trying to blow this team out. No. No. Okay.

Let's put that in through the maybes. I do feel like there's still a couple of games here I really like. This is not one of them. Texans at Titans. Four or four and a half for the Titans. I think I have to disqualify myself from betting on the Titans ever again. We're not betting on this game. Yeah, pass.

Okay. Okay. Thank God. I did not want to talk about this at all. This one's one you want to talk about. You're going to have to convince me. I'm going to have to talk you out of this one. I know.

Los Comandantes. I'll give you this one. The Commanders are averaging 16 points in offense a game with Tyler Haneke at quarterback. The line is seven. They're playing the 49ers. It's seven or seven and a half. But go ahead. Washington.

Okay, Matt. I am off Washington because of the last month. They beat the Falcons, had a week to prepare for the Giants. Overtime. Didn't lose. They tied. Had a week off. Then put the Giants again

and lost at home, 20-12. Screw me your pass interference nonsense and the Terry McLaurin stuff. You scored 12 points. You're averaging 16 points a game with Tyler Heineken quarterback. It's been fun. It's been a fun ride.

But you haven't played anyone in this run that is good that you have beaten outside of the one game you did, which is Philly, right? You played the Packers. You beat them by two, okay? You beat the Colts by one. Lost the Vikings. You beat the Eagles. Great job, right?

Beat the Eagles. Love it. Beat the Texans by 13. Falcons by six. Tied Giants. Lost Giants. The Niners are going to steamroll the Commanders. Now, Niners minus seven, totally square.

I get it. Brock Purdy could definitely have a game where he comes back to earth. But I just don't see how Washington moves the ball in this game. And the Niners defense, every single week, plays as hard as they can. Brock Purdy doesn't have to do very much because guess what? Tying the ball off, they're throwing throwing screens they're running the ball well i'm niner is minus seven i'm totally fine with washington also basically out of the playoff right like that loss almost they're still in they're still in because they're still in they're ahead of

um i don't know man i'm fine with sf minus seven here. I know you're not, but yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, I agree with all of that. I do think seven, seven and a half, not great numbers. Obviously, you'll know that, you know, the Shanahan thing where he's just not good as a big favorite. favorite um so this is generally a spot where you don't want him but i do feel like in the past and this is purely anecdotal like i do feel like he likes to show up against washington since the what happens there with him and his father um i think you're probably right i do think like taking my fandom out of it i have circled this one as a loss all season um but i don't i don't know if the seven is is a super sharp play for us but i i'm with it like it's really not sharp seven and a half forget it seven like you know it is possible that this game gets just like completely out of hand and it is possible that you know the heineke run just kind of fades like if he ever has to come down from 14 against a team like this, like, it could get really, really ugly.

So here, okay. The Niners have allowed the last, this is really a bit healthy, last six, seven games, ready? 14 points, now they played the Rams. I think that was still Matt Stafford. They allowed 16 to the Chargers, Herbert. 10 to the Cardinals,

I think, did Murray play that game? Was that a Murray game? I think it was. I know it was before he got hurt, but I think Kyler Murray was still playing. No, sorry. It was Colt McCoy. Kyler Murray was out that game. It was before his injury. His other injury. They allowed zero points to the Saints.

17 to the Dolphins. So they played kind of a real team. 7 to the Bucs, and 13 this past week, Thursday night against the Seahawks. I just don't think Washington's going to score. I mean, the Niners might need 21 points to cover this game. So it's a tough one. I get it.

I'm okay with putting seven as a maybe. Okay. Because I think- I don't like many others either this maybe. Okay. Because I think... I don't like many others either this week. Okay. There's one or two left that I do like. Well, there's one I like. This next one sucks if the number's not the same.

Wow. We really missed this number. Well, no. We did. I bet it where it was at, but not for this podcast. Yeah. Although now it's back up to five. The Eagles are five-point dogs at Dallas.

up to five the eagles are five point dogs at dallas uh we i think will be betting the eagles here kind of no matter what um this absolutely this was i mean what was the the line change here with okay so i i asked i asked a buddy of mine in vegas he said he would have priced it at dallas minus one with jailer hertz playing so it only went. So it only went up to six. It went up to six when I wagered on it. Dude, I love the Eagles in this spot. I love them in this spot. Gardner Minshew's probably going to play. They're going to be like the underdog, like 2017 Eagles, right?

Like come with underdog masks. They're going to own the offensive and defensive line. They're going to own the offensive defensive line. They're going to run the ball. Minshew's going to protect the football. Like this game is going to show everyone the Eagles are for real. The Cowboys are not. And I am very, very much for, you know, for the Eagles in this spot. I love it.

The first matchup they played, it was a Cooper rush, I believe. And that game was 26-17 for the Eagles in this spot. I love it. The first matchup they played, it was Cooper-Rush, I believe, and that game was 26-17 for the Eagles in Philly. Cowboys can score. I'll give them that. They score a bunch of points, but they barely beat the Texans. They were humiliating against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They smoked the Colts.

They beat the Giants by eight. Man, I'm on the Eagles here plus five, and I'm fine with it. Yeah, me too. The Eagles have so many ways to win still. This is, you know, my instinct is Minshew's going to come in. He'll be great for a week. The Eagles will look unbelievable.

It's very rare that a team like this is is a big dog late in the season so this is a good opportunity also dac has been dac has looked really shaky the last couple of weeks it feels like philly's had his number over the years um but i i don't know i think i think you just have to take this. I love it. Dak is 40% against the spread against opponents that are 500 or better straight up. So this is the classic Dallas. It's like they bully the bad teams and can't do it against the good teams.

Yep. Love it. All right. We're putting that through. This is all Saturday still. So Saturday night now. That was a Saturday late window game. The night game is raiders steelers uh what a time for for the franco harris footage to come out the day after he passes uh once we're recording this steelers by two and a half is one oh god what is this i don't know i don't like it though I don't I don't know what to do with this dude like I

I think you have to take I don't know can we just pass this like I have no interest in taking the Raiders ever but it doesn't feel like the Steelers are worth the respect here correct alright moving to sunday now uh packers at dolphins uh the packers are plus four uh or three and a half where you're depending where your book is what do you think isn't it funny like i would rather take the minus four with a team of minus three and a half it just like makes me sleep better at night.

I don't know. I don't think the Packers – I don't know. What are the Packers? The Dolphins, I think, will be able just to kind of abuse the Packers' defense. That's why we lean the Dolphins here in a much-needed bounce-back game. Packers go from zero degrees all the way to 50 degrees. I believe 50 degrees in Miami this weekend. That's a tough move for a cold-weather team. I can see this getting really ugly for the packers honestly um matt but i don't know if you feel that same way i actually feel like the packers have kind of turned a corner

um really and this was one of my favorites i think that the dolphins i i really like the dolphins um but i do feel like this is where i i just like the Packers, you know, no one watched the game Monday night, but they could have easily just they could have easily beaten the Rams by 20 plus. is looking good they figured something out with watson their offense is able to put up points right like last week 24 the week before 28 the week before 33 17 31 like they're starting to put their points up and miami just like you know i think this line is based on how the nfl was two or three weeks ago instead of what's actually happening now and nobody has really checked in on the packers um i just think that and the packers by the way are not out of the playoff race like if they if they do win this game then they are they're right there especially if detroit loses so i think that this is a sneaky

like pretty fun game where rogers like kind of shows up when everybody's watching um and the dolphins you know the dolphins their strengths on on offense are obviously with their receivers waddle has not looked right in several weeks i think it's a big reason why their offense hasn't totally clicked and the packers have a great secondary right like they'll be able to figure out how to do the press thing that disrupted to us so much and every other year lafloran rogers they cover every week and it just feels like this is a good chance to get them well no one's really paying attention against a team that I think is a bit overrated.

Packers plus four, man. Look, if you want them in, we got spots. Because the rest of these games, we haven't been in any of these games. So I don't think so. So you can have that spot. Because we got – I'm going to talk you into SF-7 here so we're good we're saving time on the rest of the show here

we can talk about these games if you want Broncos, Rams let's list them yeah let's just go through them quickly Broncos are two and a half point favorites at the Baker Mayfield Rams if you have a lean on this you are out of your mind put your money back in your pocket and spend it on your family for the holidays.

The Bucs. Wow, this line really moved a lot. This is up to seven now where they're at Arizona. Trace McSorley got announced as the starter. Cole McCoy's out. Oh, I just picked up the Tampa Bay defense in fantasy. Let's go. Okay, that's amazing.

I like the under in this game. I wrote about it for Fox. Tampa can't score no matter what. Picked up the Tampa Bay defense in fantasy. Let's go. Okay, that's amazing. I like the under in this game. I wrote about it for Fox. Tampa can't score no matter what. It doesn't matter who they play. And Arizona's not going to score anything with Chase McSorley now. So the under in this game, I think it was like in the high 30s. No, it was 41 and a half.

41 and a half. Under, please. Under in this game. Huh. Under. Under. And this is Christmas. This is like Christmas dinner. Like, enjoy that. It was 41 and a half, 41 and a half under, please under this game. Huh? Under. And this is Christmas. This is like Christmas dinner. Like, enjoy that.

Don't watch. Okay, great. We covered that. We even gave you an angle. Chargers Colts. Wow. Colts are the Colts really getting five at home against the Chargers. This is crazy. They're just like, someone please bet the Colts.

That's what that number says. The Nick Foles-led Colts? Did you see that? Nick Foles is starting? Oh, my God. Do we have to take the Colts now? No, dude. Okay, this is the way Nick Foles.

It blows my mind, okay? Let's look at his game. This is something I love doing, okay? 2017 was incredible right he had like the best two games in league history for someone who really hasn't done much otherwise okay since that time okay the next season he had um we had that 400 yard game at houston the end of the 2018 season right right? When Wentz got hurt again. Then he didn't start again until the following season. He was on Jacksonville.

He had three, like, mediocre games, okay games, right? Got hurt again, was out. Then he was on the Bears. He stunk on the Bears. He was terrible on the Bears, okay? The record was they were 3-5 on that team when he started he started uh he didn't even play that playoff game right then he hasn't played he didn't put all 2021 he hasn't played until now he's gonna stink he's gonna be terrible yeah it's a pass um really funny i i it's funny if if if i had to bet this i'd'd bet the Colts,

but just because this feels like the classic Chargers fall on their face game. But man, that is unbelievable that Foles is playing. What is happening with this Colts team, man? Like just truly one of the oddest seasons I've ever seen. They make the Raiders look like a normal steady ship. I know, right? So I think we've got our five.

I think we've landed on them. I know SF minus seven is a bad bet. I just... I'm not really talking you out of it. It's like, what am I going to say? Take the Falcons instead? Like, all right. Chicago plus nine, New York plus four,

Philly plus five, Green Bay plus four, SF minus seven. The other option was Seattle plus 10. Right. So what am I missing? Seattle, Green Bay, San Francisco, Philly, Chicago. What was the other one? Well, the fifth one was either SF minus 7 or Seattle plus 10 at Green

Bay. Seattle's the better bet, isn't it? Yeah. Seattle's definitely the better bet than this, but I think that uh but then i have to watch the chiefs game and root for them to only win by 10 or less points i mean that's fine we can make six we can do six that's fine and we could just put uh we could do that or we can oh the giants was the other one that's right oh yeah the chance we have the giants in i thought yeah no i I wrote down five

because I think Producer Hank's taking a nap. Chicago, I always write them down. I don't look at this thing. Chicago plus nine, New York plus four, Philly plus five, Green Bay plus four. Those are the four we liked. We're in on those four. Let's take Seattle out for the contest,

but let's make those six plays. How about that? Okay, fine. SF minus seven. I mean, Seattle, guys, out for the contest but let's make those let's make those six plays how about that okay fine sf minus seven and then i mean seattle guys seattle plus 10 is absolutely is the absolute right play this week i'm telling you right now it's a good play to make i mean let's see what's our record here should we be allowed to if we if we were to go five and one then we would be over 500 so we could say we could we could do that i don't know we could break the rules it's it's your show do you think i mean i don't give a dude do you think the varsity podcast network will be okay with us changing the format i don't think so okay so then

maybe we could just pick five and we could dump seattle but we we could tell you all pet bet seattle i would bet Seattle. Look, here's the deal. If we win, we'll keep it if we lose, it's out. We'll do what everyone else does who gives out picks. We're only going to count the winners. Here's what we could do. If we're at

500 at the end of the year, this game will decide if we were over 500 or under 500 because we're close we're going to get really close to 500 and if we're like you know 44 44 and 4 or something then that is when we will invoke whatever this Seattle

game is as our as our results our tiebreaker fair enough I'm surprised we didn even tell you guys our records most people right now wouldn't even give your record out um 34 and 38 we tape these on wednesdays man if we tape these like when we talked on sunday i was like the my favorite play of the week was the bangles and it was like we didn't even consider that on a and that last week we did it thursday it's like it's hard to do this please you please make fun of us we can handle it but it is definitely hard to put these in on a

wednesday um especially when i didn't even know nick foals was starting until you told me um yeah and and trace mcsorley trace mcsorley let's go tampa defense are you still alive in any fantasy games no i lost last week. I mean, I think I'm playing this week, but I'm not playing. I'm on my playoffs. I had a bad injury year. It is what it is. It happens. I'm telling you my quarterback situation. So,

no, I think I am out this week. No, I'm playing somebody. I'm playing for fifth place. Hey, man. Pride matters. Awesome. It does matter. All right, guys. You guys matter. Please rate, review, man. Pride matters. Awesome. It does matter. All right, guys. You guys matter. Please rate, review, subscribe. You too.

You matter, Jeff. That's my radio in me. I release the tease. Not the network I'm at now. Previous one was all about teases, man. Coming up next, why Matt Ford likes to have chicken burgers. Just like the stupidest shit ever. Coming up next, Organs had a great recruiting day.

Can anyone else beat it? Coming up next, which ESPN high-level producer just waltzed into my office? Our friend who used to produce the show that Jeff and I really started to work on just walked in, our friend Alex, who produces the ESPN Daily, which is a great show.

If you're still listening this late in the podcast, you'll definitely like that show. It's slightly better produced than this one. I think Alex will like the Niners pick. He's a Niners guy, right, I believe? Yeah, I will have to. He'll be excited to hear that we made that pick. Yeah. Someone's saying hey in our chat.

I don't know if that's Alex. It's probably Alex. Hello, Alex. Welcome to Los Angeles. It's Hank complaining that he's not as good of a producer as 800 ESPN producers. So fair enough. That show is very well produced.

Like they even have audio sliced in. I mean, it is like, well, they have a transitions, like clear transitions. I'm like us just babbling away. They just shove a transit,

shove an ad into our, into our show at some point. Like just one time I stopped talking for a second, they just, boom, ad. All right, guys. Let's get off the air before we upset our sponsors. Yes. Power of the Varsity Podcast Network, everybody.

Have a great weekend. Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. Happy holidays. We'll get back to you guys next week. Take care, everybody. we'll get back to you guys next week take care everybody