Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 17

Episode Date: December 29, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back to give you their five best bets for the penultimate week of the NFL season. There is a lot of news to consider this week, between the Raiders benching Derek Carr, Tua Tagovailoa's concussion, and Mike White's return from injury, so be sure bet with care... or throw caution to the wind and join Matt on his seven leg NFL/CFP teaser. Football season is ending soon, let's earn while we can!Please leave a rating or a comment on the podcast to let us know what you think of the show, and follow the pod to be notified when new episodes drop each Tuesday and Thursday. Thanks for listening!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday december 29th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this jeff schwartz is smart you powered by the varsity podcast network it's our weekend wagering preview we are glad to have you along it has been an up and down season we have two weeks left in the nfl season matt we were three and two last week we are three under 500 we're clawing our way back. However, we need to finish one game above 500 because we lost our tiebreaker last weekend. That'll be the game that will determine whether or not we go over under if we land at 500. We have fun doing this show, Matt. I'm glad you're back this week, and we'll talk about football heading into the weekend. Dude, so last week for listeners who didn't listen or maybe have are

thinking about other things than our podcast throughout the holiday season so we were we've really liked seattle plus 10 against kansas city but then we decided not to bet it because we don't we don't like betting against the chiefs on jeff's show right yeah so then i don't know two hours before the game that that shirtless photo of DK Metcalf starts going around and everyone on Twitter is freaking out because it's you know it was five degrees in Casey or whatever and I texted to Jeff on our group thread and Jeff goes I go here's the picture and Jeff goes loss just flat out just straight loss is the response and then i immediately said i would get off that bet yeah and i was like you're kidding me like this is so stupid but then you ended up you ended up being right and uh the

chiefs the chiefs for once covered a really big number yeah against the seattle team that's starting to look a little bit like uh the party's over for them but good call by you i don't know how dk was the one that uh that that cued you up there but nicely done well we might go back down the road the chiefs again this weekend we'll see how this one goes we got back and forth backs galore everywhere we got coaches fire we have so much happening and we have a thursday night football game that i do not expect um that people would have thought week 17 the line would be what it is yeah that's right it's dallas at tennessee tennessee getting 11 or 10 um malik willis is starting great week if you have a dallas fantasy

defense in your championship uh this is a stay away for us obviously just for every reason but this feels like a great cowboys teaser game doesn't it yeah it does but i feel like every single person is going to have them in a teaser which is never really good right i mean if you get the nine and a half he teases down to three and a half great but this game was was the look ahead line chart season was tennessee by one and a half and now it's moved what it's now 12 points basically um basically. You know, Tennessee has Malik Willis in there. And look, they're just not competitive, right? They're just not competitive with him in the lineup. He's not ready to play.

And they just can't move the ball offensively when he's in the lineup. And at some point, you know, he has to play because Tannehill's hurt. I get that. But they just don't have a chance on offense. So far this season, he has thrown – this is crazy. You ready? He's had three starts this year. 55 yards, 80 yards, 99 yards in his three starts.

They don't even really use him in the run game either, which is what he can do. He had 43 rushing yards against Houston and 12 against, actually 12 and 43 against Houston and 46 against the Chiefs. Mind you, he started three games, two against the Texans and one against the Chiefs' 24th ranked defense, and he has not played well. The Cowboys' defense is really good. Now, they've regressed a little bit this season. They're not as good as they have been. They've been allowing more points. They're second in DVO Now, they've regressed a little bit this season. They're not as good as they have been. They've been allowing more points. They're second in DVOA, but, you know, they're allowing a little more points.

But Tennessee can't score, and their defense is really hurt. And their defense is what they relied on a big part of this season. And this has all the makings of a blow. Now, of course, we're not wager on this game, but I can see the Cowboys winning this game by multiple touchdowns. Yeah, this is the kind of game where they like to show up national tv bad team get up early dominate like it's just this has the four cowboys formula but yeah this is this is a pass in terms of the spread i think weirdly the titans i guess the last two years have just fallen apart at the

end of the season so i think all the the trends of Rabel on a short week, if Rabel is an underdog Rabel after a loss, I think you just, I think you just got to throw it out, especially with Derek Henry is a possible, uh, possible injury, uh, at least limitation during the game. Um, okay. Moving to Sunday, uh, the Browns at the common Dante's led by Carson Wentz. Oh boy. Uh, this is everywhere from one and Dante is led by Carson Wentz. Oh boy. Uh, this is everywhere from one and a half to two and a half. Um,

I don't know. I think you got to take the commanders if you're playing this, but we are not playing Carson Wentz. We're not lives. We're not. You tell me. I, the commanders is certainly the play here.

Right. Um, we liked Heineke for a while, but it's very clear. The Heineke just isn't the guy, right? And turnover prone, like the thing that he did was kind of not make mistakes, right? Kind of spark team, but now he's making mistakes.

So you have to put in the more talented quarterback in Carson Wentz. More than anything else, the Browns stink. They're really bad, Matt. Now, Carson Wentz could easily blow this game, and it wouldn't surprise me if he did, but the Browns are not in the playoffs. They've been officially eliminated, I believe, right, from playoff contention.

And Deshaun Watson, so far this season, has been awful. Take out even last week when they had the terrible conditions. 131 yards, 276-161. He's completing only 57% of his passes. And again, even if you take out last weekend, it's at 60%.

So it's not like it's that big of a difference. He's just not good. And Washington's defense is good, right? Like Washington's defense can play in this game against the Browns. I would have no, just the Carson Wentz thing is obviously not good. But you tell me that Washington can't play defense against this, against the Browns. Can we do enough to win by a field goal, you think?

Or is that not even possible? Absolutely, I think so. It's just a matter of whether Wentz kills them, to be honest. And, I mean, Wentz looked good last week for what it's worth against the 49ers team that already had that game in hand. I mean, the thing is the Browns the Browns' run defense is terrible. This is a great chance for Bryan Robinson to take this one over. The Commanders' wins this year, for the most part, they have the impressive Eagles win.

And then they've been close against a bunch of decent teams. But they beat the Bears, they beat the Colts, they beat um but you know they beat the bears they beat the colts they beat the falcons they beat the texans like they tend to take care of business against teams that are worse than them and this is for their playoff lives and the browns have nothing to play for so i think there are some one and a halves out there and i have a feeling like you know if we were doing this for real and not just for a show we would probably say like cool there's a one and a half at let's just say fanduel right now that's the one we want to hit i'm cool with one and a half yeah and this is a game that i would i would bet right now on wednesday that this number gets

to two and a half before kickoff yeah probably even three possibly more yeah really because you i mean just three with brown's buyback but i feel like at three we'll get Browns buyback, but I feel like it's just going to go up by kickoff. We're getting the best of the line now. Yeah, I'm very cool with one and a half. It's shifted as we're talking, so I'm happy to have it now. We'll take the advantage of doing this on a Wednesday for once. All right, let's go to the next game.

This one's very interesting here. Okay, nice. Dolphins at Patriots. The Dolphins are plus three. Obviously, the big news this week was Tua and his concussion. I assume that that all broke after you guys talked on Monday, right? It did, yeah. So Tua is concussed.

And even today, as we were course on Wednesday, Mike McDaniel has said that Teddy Bridgewater is a starter. They're going to give Tua some rest. I would imagine he doesn't play the rest of the season. Including playoffs? Maybe if they get to the playoffs, he'll play. But he won't play the next two weeks, in my opinion. It's so funny, man.

You know, a lot of us saw him, you know, obviously hit his head against the Bills. And the following hit his head i believe against the jets right um and that was very scary it was on or the bangles bangles right it was the bangles a very scary play he had the you know the reaction the neurological reaction where his arms are kind of his fingers are kind of stuck above his head and it seems very apparent that he had two concussions in in two weeks really in four days now he gets a third. And look, the way he played in the second half of that game, Mike McDaniel at least says that, hey, they thought something was wrong with him. So they asked him to go get checked out. That's the story I think they're going with. And he did play that

part in the second half of that game where you do wonder whether there was something just not right with him. And a lot of us said like, hey, man, it might be best to rest for the, you know, for the remainder of the season. Dolphins fans got so angry and like, why he's just about someone else. I go, I don't know. I don't talk about everyone's injury, but we have a guy, a quarterback who has a very public history with concussions in just one season. Like it makes sense for a lot of us to be like, you know what? I think his wellbeing is more important than, than finishing out the season. So, um, I'd'd imagine he's out the next two weeks as he gets ready to go. But I'll tell you what, man, this last concussion, if it happened on the play that everyone has

shared, he's got to learn how to take a hit better. Like, that's not that big of a hit. Like, you just got to be able to not, you can't get concussed on the top of play and have a long career, in my opinion. And I wish him the best i hope he gets healthy as soon as possible but it makes sense to want to to want to have him sit out and um in regards to this game i have no feel for it i mean new england's just such a bad shape right now um they're probably gonna play well on defense against teddy bridgewater but Mac Jones is just untrustworthy dude are we

sure we don't want to get one more chance here for the Dolphins and Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog against this awful Patriots team three points at three at two and a half you know maybe not I think that's about right but I think with the three mean, we've talked about it on this show a million times. Teddy Bridgewater is an underdog is like one of the best bets you can make historically, just automatic cover machine. I don't, I mean,

I think you and I are both, I think I'm maybe above average in the two, a fan club for most of the non dolphins fans out there. I don't think Teddy is that big of a downgrade. I think that they'll still be able to get the explosive plays with the receivers. There's not a crazy weather event in New England this week. I think it's just going to be one of those kind of close games. Miami should have won.

We took the Packers last week. I really liked them, but they could have easily run away with that game. If two, I didn't sort of, you know, have the concussion. Probably we're not sure. And,

and have sort of a second half meltdown. So I think this is a really nice buy low spot on the dolphins. And I think later in the week, people are going to be like, Oh yeah, Teddy Bridgewater, what an opportunity. It's a little bit risky,

but in a week where a lot of things are, are up in the air. And I mean, are the Patriots technically still alive for that playoff spot? I guess they are. No, It's a little bit risky, but in a week where a lot of things are up in the air. And, I mean, are the Patriots technically still alive for that playoff spot? I guess they are. No, they certainly are. Yeah, they're both. This is like a lose-or-leave town game, right? Like, the losers are for sure out of the wild card.

I mean, there's one team that's just massively better than the other, right? There just is. I know it's a road game. I know it's New England. I know it's Belichick. But, you know, I think the Dolphins could. And the Dolphins have had good success against the Patriots over the years. So I would consider this.

But if you're not really into it, then we could pass it. I'm not into it now. I mean, it might be one of our five. We don't know if we're going to have five that we like yet. Yeah. I get the reasoning. The one concern I have is Teddy Bridgewater outside in the cold against a really good Patriots defense.

And this could just be an ugly, ugly game. And three is better than two and a half, obviously. But this could be like a 13-10. I mean, I'll take a push, obviously. But New England's defense is bad. I mean, offense is terrible. Dolphins are the better football team um even with teddy bridgewater in there i think i mean sure i think yeah the

patriots d is has been good but like they did give up they they've when they've played good teams it's been clear they've been outclassed and last week against the bangles they came back but you know gave up 33 to minnesota 24 to Buffalo, 30 to the Raiders. Maybe it should have been 24. The Bengals just scored three straight or 22 straight to start the game. I don't trust them against a good team, but enough about this game. That's a maybe. Let's move on.

Well, let's not even discuss Cardinals-Falcons. Falcons are like three and a half. Just skip it. Happy trails, J.J. Watt. Sorry.J. Watt. Great career. Sorry, sorry. If you came here, Falcons or Cardinals fans, to hear you talk about your team, I think there's a, we say on, I do serious radio, I do Pac-12 radio.

We always joke there's a channel for that, right? If there's any other topic that we want to bring up. That's right. That we don't want to really talk about. We say, there's a channel for that. And there certainly is. There's a channel to listen to Cardinals Texans preview. Not, I mean, Cardinals Falcons preview. It's just not this channel, guys. We're a channel to listen to Cardinals-Texans preview. Not, I mean, Cardinals-Falcons preview.

It's just not this channel, guys. Just not this channel. Oh, we're definitely going to be discussing the Texans who are hosting the Jags. Oh, no. I don't want to do this. The Texans are plus four and a half. I don't want to do this.

We don't have to do it. I feel like every year, every time we've been in Texans this year, we've lost every single game except week one. We love week one. Yeah, because they didn't cover except for the last last i think they've covered now three of the last four um they i mean this is this is a completely irrelevant game for both teams uh essentially right like i i don't exactly know how peterson plays this with uh resting guys and you know because the game next week for those who aren't incredibly dialed into the

AFC South playoff race, this game does not matter because next week the Jags play the Titans and whoever wins that game, wins the division and makes the playoffs. Even if, even if, even if like, well,

this game matters. If Jacksonville loses, if you, if Tennessee wins Thursday, it doesn't matter at all. No, it doesn't. Because if they go to – whoever goes – let's say one team wins, one team loses. One team is 8-7. One team is 7-9.

So who's the tiebreaker? 7-9. But who's the tiebreaker, though? No, they're both 7-8 right now. Well, it gets determined because it gets determined next week. Okay. Whatever. It doesn't matter.

So you want Houston plus four and a half? I guess. I don't want it. I don't. Jeff, let's be 100% clear. I don't want to do that. That's just what you have to do if you're picking this game. But I'm not dying to do it, obviously.

Yeah. If we don't have five other games, this should be one. No, it's one you just sort of have to do. We don't even have one. We don't have one yet. We're just putting in, I think, that we greatly feel great about yet. We have three that we have maybes,

and two of them I like a decent amount. So, hey, man, we'll have to put this one in. One thing that is interesting is we bet in the beginning of the year the Bears to have the worst record in the NFL. And if the Texans win this game, then we actually might win that bet, Jeff, because the Bears, the Texans have that stupid Colts tie. Yes. And they could end up being the second overall pick here,

and we could win that bet, which I believe was like a nice, Bolts tie. Yes. And they could end up being the second overall pick here. And we could win that bet, which I believe was like a nice, was like a 7-1 or something like that. I'll double check that. But that would be a nice one for us to put in the bank after we've gotten ripped off out of a few of these. It'd be incredible. It'd be so much fun. Worst record.

Plus 750. Woof. Let's go Houston. All right. At this point, we're not likely to make a decent amount of money on those futures. That would help. It would certainly help, yes.

Well, God. This game makes me want to just throw my TV into a river of some sort. The Colts and Nick Foles are going to the Giants. The Giants are laying six. God. I mean, this started at three.

I would have loved it at three, but at six, I mean, five or six, just forget it. No, I can't get you in on that. I mean, let's hear it. I mean, what? Okay, let's play the game of how how many points are the colts on score in this game like what do you think i mean they just put a 30 something against the vikings they right but that's a different quarterback by the way yeah this could just be a total

a total hanging up job they have nothing to play for on Saturday. Before the 36th, by the way, it was 19, 17, 16, 25, 3, 16, 10. And three last weekend. They looked really terrible on Monday. Like, I mean, the Chargers' D is not like, it's not the 85 Bears by any means. I mean, three is obviously better than six, but the Giants, I feel like, I mean, I don't know. The Giants, every game is close for the Giants,

but I would actually be fine taking the Giants in the spot. It's not great, but sometimes I kind of throw out a little bit of the bet splits and whatnot and just take the team here that's going to kick their ass. Yeah. Well, one thing that I didn't mention when we talked about the commanders, but this is kind of an interesting trend. Teams that are eliminated, that playing teams that need to win over the last final weeks of the season. So the Colts are eliminated. The Giants need a win over the last final weeks of the season so the colts are eliminated the giants need a win um they don't actually need it quite as much as the commanders do but those teams that you tend to count out hit 63 of the time against the spread since 1990 so those bad teams let's

remember that next week when there's like oh if you know this team just wins then they're in the playoffs just like jacksonville last year yeah upset. Upset Carson Wentz and the Colts, famously. This is one of those where you're like, wait a second. How do they possibly cover this one? But I don't know. I think the Giants are too disciplined. I'm okay with this, especially there is a five and a half again at Vandal. Yeah.

I would at least put it in the next round. I put it in the maybe category. Just in the maybes. In the maybes. Because this next one... God. I don't know how you possibly could have a read on this game. It's your Chiefs land 13 against the Broncos.

This actually got up to 13.5 and then somehow came back down to 13. I guess now it's 12. You can find some 12.5 somewhere. I mean, do you actually think the Chiefs might be a good play here? I can't imagine that they are. No, it's not. But this game could be like 31-10.

I mean, it could easily be just a should show for the Broncos again. But no, the Chiefs just need to keep winning and hope Cincinnati wins on Monday night and then they end up with the one seed. So they're winning by any means possible right now. I don't think that they're trying to win by a lot, by a little, just trying to get the win. I just would stay away from this. Yeah.

Chiefs haven't covered in their last five against the AFC West, three out of their last 16 against the spread against a team with a losing record. And the Broncos are a total disaster. Their defensive coordinator turned down the head coaching job, which is insane. Did you hear that Shannon Sharpe said that Russell Wilson has his own office and his own parking spot for the Broncos and that that's pissing his teammates off? Well, it pisses them off because they stink. That's why.

So if they were good, it wouldn't matter? Yes. Really? Yeah. Did Eli Manning have his own parking spot in his own office he no we did not nope no just just russell wilson just the corniest person of all time well i don't know man maybe the jerry rosberg era is gonna get off to a bang and they'll they'll cover a 13 and a half how about i'll bet against that it's not even you can't even

tease this number either it's such a bad it's like like not it's like an unteasable number i know you could seven you could seven point tease it but still it's just like there's a lot of good teaser games this week which means that everyone's going to get killed um all right the nfc south division championship the panthers at the bucks uh the bucks are laying three in a confounding line where everyone's betting the panthers and i i what do you i mean i don't know what do we do here are you a contrarian bet the bucks in this game i don't know i don't think i could do it the bucks i watched an inordinate amount of that game on sunday because i I was in Tampa with my in-laws and they're Bucs fans and every time Brady would go back to pass they just they had no hope it's

unbelievable I was like guys this is Tom Brady like don't you like aren't you enjoying this at all it's it's they're miserable to watch Brady looks totally lifeless out there they barely beat Trace McSorley in a game where the Cardinals didn't even play well. But for some reason, it's like, is Darnold going to go on the road and win a playoff game, essentially, like against the Bucs defense? I don't know. Three is a very fishy line because I don't think anyone in the world is going to be on the Bucs. I don't get why it's three.

Yeah, I think we stay away from this one, right? It feels like two. The Bucs are the worst team covering the NFL. The Panthers off a huge winning as the Lions. Russ for 500 yards. I just would stay away. Very fishy. Very fishy. 100% fishy.

I don't like it. I don't even... Let's just stay away, a mile away from that. We're almost to the late window here. We have one game we truly like. Curious if this is another one. Bears at Lions. Their second meeting of the season.

The Lions are laying six. Maybe a five and a half out there what do you think here all the money's on the bears um i don't like it either the bears kind of just stink like last week they're not even a they're kind of not even at the point where like are are they like a fun stinky team or they just kind of just they're just not very good though right like justin fields is fun the rest of the team just kind of is really really bad yeah i would stay away from this one or i take the lions i just think the lions just kind of bounce back this weekend and kind of kick their butts yeah lions inside again back home

feels like they haven't been home in a long time. They've covered 8th Street against the NFC North. The Jamal Williams thing is kind of interesting. He's questionable as we're recording this. He might miss the game. I don't know. I think that this is maybe a buy low spot on the Lions. For some reason, every week, everyone just loves the Bears, but they never cover. That's the thing about the Bears that's kind of interesting is everyone thinks they're like last year's Lions. But looking, if I do this quickly, I think the Bears have covered one out of their last five. Like they've gotten blown out.

Yeah, they're not covering. Yeah, you're right. Because we bet on them. They're not covering. Yeah. In the game they covered against Philly, Jalen Hurts got injured. So it's sort of like they're kind of a mirage, I think. So at five and a half, I'm not scared of the Lions.

Talk about, they're a great tease. Just tease that game down to a pick. That one is, that's a great tease. You put them and the Giants together. Yeah, and maybe the Chiefs. Yeah. But then you get seven and a half, which stinks. But that's, I don't know.

I don't think this is going to make our list but I think I would leave it like that as well Saints-Eagles the Eagles as we're recording this are 6.5 point favorites, there's still no official word on Jalen Hurts this number feels like a bit of a hedge just in case he does play but am I crazy to like the Saints here Jeff? This number feels like a bit of a hedge just in case he does play.

But am I crazy to like the Saints here, Jeff? Well, if Jalen Hurts doesn't play, I'm with you on the Saints here at six. But the bigger injury to me in this game is Lane Johnson, the Eagles right now, not playing. And I know the report today said he might come back for the playoffs. I don't know. I've had the injury before. It's tough for a lot of offensive linemen to play through.

Adrian Peterson, the year he rushed for 2,000 yards, he played through this injury, but that position is much easier than what Lane has to do. That's a huge loss for the Eagles. And so I would be okay, but, like like dalton on the road in the cold i guess it just one last weekend doing the exact same thing it's not the browns they're playing though yeah i don't know this one's tough because the saints i just are not good in offense and sort of poorly coached too so how much faith do you put in them to get this job done here? It's mostly, I think, I think that people aren't totally,

I mean, no one is reacting in the public to the Saints result last week where, I mean, they, they look terrible, but so did a lot of teams outside. With Philly, it's just like, we haven't, a lot of teams outside. With Philly, it's just like we haven't – I don't feel like Minshew, the loss of the possible MVP and the possible best right tackle in football is being priced into this at all.

And I think everyone's like, oh, it's the Eagles. They're going to be fine. Isn't this the price with Hertz playing? I mean, yeah, with Hertz playing. I think so. I mean, I think so. No, no, no. This is the, with Hurts playing. I think so. I mean, I think so. No, no, no, no, no. This is the price with Minshew play.

If Hurts was playing, it would be like 9 or 10. Yeah. Yes. I think I agree. I took it the wrong way, yeah. So this is priced in with Hurts not playing. Yeah. I mean, it's just like the Saints do a couple of things well

that kind of scare me if I'm an Eagles fan here. Like, they can run the ball pretty well. They have a very good front. Their defensive line is a strength, which could be a problem for a backup quarterback outside and a sort of must win. I just feel like this is going to be sort of an ugly mess of a game, but this is one of those where the Eagles could come out and absolutely they could just get up 21-0 like they always do, and then the Saints have just no answer.

But I don't know. I don't love this, but I was curious if the Lane Johnson thing was going to be a good enough argument. The Lane Johnson is a huge problem. Cam Jordan's going to have a really good opportunity here to get off. Lots of sharps on New Orleans, by the way. Yeah. This is the sort of sharp play of the week.

I don't know. um, lots of sharps on new Orleans, by the way. Yeah. This is the sort of sharp play of the week. Um, I, I don't know. Let's, I think we're going to need to like, take a look back at what we actually like here, but I've written them down. We have six.

We like so far, this is a, this is like a light, maybe I think. Um, and later in the week, I think with the Hertz thing, like this could,

this could end up being like Eaglesagles by four and a half if if minju has announced the starter i have a feeling that could be the case um all right well speaking of starters the first game of this late window we are as we're recording this there's this weird rumor going around that derrick carr might not play in the raiders 49ers game so we've got numbers up that just sort of steamed up to the Niners laying nine and a half in Vegas. Can you explain what's going on here? Yeah, so the reports are that Derek Carr might not play because the Raiders want to get rid of him after the season.

If he gets hurt this season, this contract is guaranteed for next season. So that's kind of along the lines of what it is. And so they're going to sit him because he's not going to play they don't want him in there and they don't want to be on the hook for him and they're going to get rid of him in the offseason so he's not going to play this week that's why i think the um the line steamed all the way up four points today so i mean that would be pretty interesting that interesting. That's essentially saying that they want the option to cut Derek Carr if they don't play him this week. Like, that's a huge offseason domino.

And the Raiders are out of the playoffs, right? Is that – There's like an under 1% chance they make it. Okay. So then I think you just have to play them at least a little bit. I don't know. That's pretty interesting. Not with a backup quarterback against the Niners defense, I don't think.

Man. Well, this is a fascinating choice. If Carr does play, I mean, you would have to take the Raiders here, but I was prepared to have to at least make the choice. But this 49ers team is, uh, they're an absolute juggernaut and I can see them just absolutely running through this team inside.

They, they are, they are unbelievable. Um, yeah. So, I mean, this is a stay away for us for now,

but man, what a, what a strange situation we have here. Absolutely. Yeah, man. All right. Well, check back in on that one uh

jets seahawks mike white is back he is a road favorite in seattle which man what what a sentence um those numbers that the money's split here 50 50 it seems like everyone's just done with seattle are you interested in backing seattle as a home dog fighting for their lives? Yeah. Why would I take Mike White on the road? Yeah. I'm really confused by this. I think it's more of just Seattle's really come back to earth,

which they absolutely have. They're playing really good Jets defense, and the idea that Mike White kind of gives this offense a little more juice, which is totally possible. I think the under is certainly in play here. I think both teams are going to have trouble scoring this game. But, yeah, I don't really – we're not taking the Jets here. So I think the under is certainly a player. I think both teams are going to have trouble scoring this game. But, yeah, I don't really – we're not taking the Jets here.

Three is better than two and a half. Seattle just hasn't played as great lately. That's the problem. It's not something that's good lately. Yeah. I mean, there's this thing that – I mean, we're going to see this with some of these teams this week, whether it's Detroit or the giants or Washington or Seattle or the jets, like one of these, these teams like home field advantage in the league and win a game to make the playoffs like can mike white do that is he that good of a quarterback and are the jets that good of a defense that they can go and do that we'll see but i feel like just

the chance to get the chance to bet on the seahawks as a home dog when everyone is off of them it just feels i don... I don't get why more people aren't on this one. I think people just expect this offense to be much different with Mike White. And we have seen that happen. And Seattle, again, has really struggled lately. That's part of the problem. Seattle just hasn't been very good lately.

I think this is... I mean, I don't love backing Geno the way he's played against this good of a defense but i just think you have to do it i mean i'll put it down as a maybe okay all right moving on to the late window sunday here it is jeff this is the one vikings at packers the packers are laying three and a half now three and a half point favorites everyone thinks Rodgers is running the table here

can we please take the Vikings this line is ridiculous man what are we doing here make the case the Packers are kind of hot right now but

they're not as good as I think the winning streak indicates. And the Vikings, again, I don't believe that much in the Vikings, but they play close football games, right? They won't be intimidated by playing Green Bay. They'll be able to move the ball in this Packers defense. It took three truly awful turnovers from Tua for the Packers to win this game. If Cousins doesn't do that, the Vikings are going to win. Three and a half is a lot of points.

Big overreaction, in my opinion. Big overreaction for a team that I think everyone just doesn't respect Minnesota. Reminded of these two teams played. I'm with that, too, a little bit. Week one, it was a blowout. The Vikings absolutely rolled the Packers. I think it was their only blowout win of the season they've weirdly done decently against the packers uh in the past few years the hook here is crazy the fact that you're this open two and a half everyone

keeps betting the packers the packers you mentioned the two a thing but also uh christian watson becoming a decent option for Aaron Rodgers completely changed his offense. He got injured in the first half last week, and it was all about the defense. And I just feel like this is a great turn into a pumpkin game for Green Bay. Even if they win by three, we still cover this one with the hook. This is my favorite of the week.

The hook is the big deal here, guys. Three and a half is crazy, dude. It's insane that we get three and a half on this one. I'm with you. Yeah, this is an all-in play for me. Yeah, and it's worth mentioning that the Vikings could actually be in play for the one seed somehow,

which sounds insane, but I mean, I guess it shouldn't be considering that they seem to win every week. But yeah, if the Eagles lose, which is possible if Minshew's playing, then they have the Bears next week. This is a huge, huge game for Minnesota. And Green Bay has Detroit next week, which probably will matter more in the playoff hunt, you know, theoretically. So love the Vikings here.

Moving on to the Battle of L.A. Do you have a lean here? The Chargers are laying six and a half to the frisky Rams. Don't bet on the Chargers. That's my advice on this one. I'm not sure I bet on the Rams either, but I would not bet on the Chargers in this spot. Just when things go well for the Chargers, when things crap the bed. I even would

be okay taking a raise minus six and a half, but over the Chargers minus six and a half. I know. Why do I like that? I feel like McVay is having fun in the end of the season. Because no one trusts the Chargers. He's totally having fun. Because no one trusts the Chargers. Because they're the Chargers. That's why. No one trusts them. That's why. Yeah.

And Mayfield's looked fine. I mean, it's clear the Rams are still playing you know as if they're as if they're in the mix great teaser game jeff another six and a half point teaser down you could get there just just to pick up the chargers the rams are bad but playing hard because they don't have a first round pick they have no reason to tank yeah exactly no reason to take and the chargers by the way like kind of have nothing to play for here um they're in the playoffs. I guess this would affect their seeding, but they're going to be on the road anyway.

The 5 or the 6 seed is going to end up being their fate this year. Yeah, I mean, I guess they're eyeing. They're figuring they're playing either the Chiefs or the Bills or the Bengals. It doesn't really matter. I guess, yeah. I don't know. That's interesting i think that's a that's a sneaky rams play but i i don't have the the stones to make it on the air sunday night game steelers at ravens ravens laying three we don't know what lamar's

deal is i am guessing What do we think? That he is going to play with this number? I guess not. I don't think he's playing. I don't think he is either. So let's do it. Let's do what we always do. No? We can. I love this as another teaser. There's no chance that either of these teams is winning by 10.

This is, yeah, go ahead. Explain. I mean, this is an AFC North matchup with two teams basically struggling at quarterback. You always take the points in this game, right? You absolutely do. The Steelers are still fighting for the playoffs. They're still in it. They just had this come-from-behind win against the Panthers.

Excuse me, not the Panthers, the Raiders. They just beat the Panthers as well. Like, their defense is playing better lately. And remember, they lost this game a couple weeks ago. We had the Steelers in this contest, right? Minus two or minus two and a half or whatever it was. And they got bullied by Baltimore. Remember, Baltimore ran it down their throats in that game.

Not happening this week. We lost that game, if you recall, because Trubisky threw three reds on interceptions. That's not going to happen because he hopefully doesn't have to play in this game. I think you're right. And even if Lamar plays, Lamar is not going to be Lamar. And there is simply no vertical passing threat

for the Ravens at all. At three, yeah, there's a lot of two and a halves now. If there is a way for us to get a three, I absolutely would take three. You can still get a three. It's around. Yeah. All right, let's take the three. We left Tomlin as an underdog.

Underdogs have covered 20 of the last three. Fox bet coming for the win. Plus three. Thank you, employers. Let's go. Steelers are a little bit hot. Watts a little bit healthier. Steelers have covered four or five. Yeah.

I mean, this is just take the points game and just maybe don't watch all of it. Can you put this in here? The underdog has covered 20 of the last 29 meetings between these two teams. And really, they pushed three times. So it's really like 20 out of 26 times. Yep. That's good. Wow.

I like it. Damn. All right, Steelers. Let's go. I bet Steelers over 7.5 before the season. So that would bet. Yeah, it's in our thing. It's in our wagers.

Oh, yeah. We did bet that. That would be huge. Let's go. Incredible Monday night game, possibly for the one seed. We'll see what the chiefs have to say about that the bills are at the bangles the bangles are getting a point and a half at home on monday night game their biggest regular season game in what feels like a long time

very quickly breaking news alert i don't know if you hank you and put some noise here it is announced as we're doing this that the Raiders are benching Derek Carr. They're benching Derek Carr. And we'll start Jared Stidham. Oh, my God. Carr has $40 million that becomes guaranteed if he can't pass a physical. Wow. So this is basically them saying he's not our quarterback next year. Correct.

Wow. What do you think? It was coming to this. It that way right i guess i mean future future colt starter future jet starter perhaps future commander starter i just i just feel like this is such a weird such a weird move if you're even a little bit alive for the playoffs but i guess maybe like do you think that this is like a Raiders, Mark Davis has no money kind of deal? No, I think it's just Johnson and Cardinal seem to work well together. Huh.

I'm very surprised that they are doing this. And wow, can we just say, like, this isn't really penetrating analysis. What a tough beat for Dev davante adams fantasy owners like what a tough beat for your for your championship to have derrick car benched for a technicality in the last week by the way derrick car and davante adams like best friends right like that's i feel like that's such a weird dynamic wow what a disaster so jared's sitting is starting do you feel any better about the niners minus 10 i'm wondering if we can get what the numbers are going to look like as we're recording this this is a big breaking news on air

still seeing some 10s now I don't know we're not laying 10 with Brock Purdy on the road forget it let's get back to this game that's actually awesome the Bills Bengals my instinct here is to just grab the point and a half with the Bengals, but I don't think I would put that in our contest. I think I'd just rather watch this. So the Bengals have covered like 20 of 23 games. It's insane the way they're able to cover it.

I think they're 18 and 21 somewhat. They've been a covering machine, and they're playing some really good football. Look, that second half against the Patriots wasn't great. I think we're aware of that. But they're still, to me, the best team in the AFC right now.

Then with the Bills, it's been tough. Josh Allen's elbow has really changed the way he's played. He has not played as well the last six, seven, eight weeks since that elbow injury.

Now you're on the road against a Bengals team that continually feels like an underdog. And of course, I have rooting interest in this. I would really like to, you know,

for the Bengals to win this game. So it would allow the Chiefs to have the one seed. But you can never count out Buffalo, man. You just can't. This is a game, I think, you just, to your point, you sit back, you watch this game, you enjoy it, and you just put no money on it. Just enjoy the awesome.

Monday you have an incredible day of football. You combine both sports because you have an incredible day of football you combine both sports because you have uh the new year's six bowl games you have on um on monday you end up having i'm gonna pull up just to make sure we have this correctly here i know you have the cotton bowl you have usc and tulane for sure i know that game is happening and the rose bowl so you end up having um here right here i'm gonna pull the day up. Okay, January 1st. Excuse me, January 2nd. You ready?

So you have USC and Tulane on ESPN at 1 p.m. Eastern, followed by the Rose Bowl on ESPN, Utah, Penn State, followed by Bills, Bengals on ESPN. How about that? Let's go. That's a great level of football right there. Good for, I don't work for them, I guess, so bad for ESPN. Let's go.

That's a great football right there. Good for, I don't work for them, I guess. So bad for ESPN. But I would say that it, I just would watch this game and put no money on it. Just enjoy the game that that's going to be.

Yeah. I'm with you. I think that, you know, the, the Lyle Collins injury is huge for, for Cincy. They haven't adjusted super well to those offensive line injuries as they've come.

I think this is a good bet live game jeff i think whoever gets out to an early lead in this one unless since he like comes out i mean even if it's since he i think this is a good like hey whoever gets out early if there's like a four and a half six point line that you can grab in the game just take the take the other side um but a huge another huge injury for the bangles i just i i don't know it almost feels like the bangles would be better off dropping this game i know that sounds kind of weird but like at some point they can't just win every single week and cover every single week and i feel like they'd it'd be good for them to fly under the radar and coming into the playoffs but the division is still in here, so they kind of do have to win this unless the Steelers pull off that upset.

I thought about this. Being hot entering the postseason on the NFL side is kind of good. A lot of champions win that way. They just get hot and just win all the way through. The Chiefs did that a couple years ago. The Bucs did that a few years ago as well. So to me, in other sports, it feels like it's a bad thing, right? Like in baseball, you're the hottest team in baseball.

You didn't then just lay an egg in the post. But football feels like it's good for you. And so I'm with you. I originally thought, yeah, for their own sake, they should lose a game here. But I don't think that's true, though. I think you just – football winning is tough to do, and winning is a way to just kind of i i think you're okay with continuing to do that i agree i mean i but i i will say though for cincy the bills are the

bills are obviously they have a better record but cincy has lost uh one game since october 10th like their last they lost that weird halloween game to. They lost that weird Halloween game to the Browns. They lost that game to the Ravens. That was October 9th. And since then, they have pretty much run the table. And they have played some really good teams from there, including the Chiefs, including some road games. So this is a really, really big test for them.

The Bills, it feels like the Bills have a test every week and they pass it all the time. So we'll learn a lot from this game. I can't wait to watch it. Absolutely. really, really big test for them. The Bills, it feels like the Bills have a test every week and they pass it all the time. We'll learn a lot from this game. I can't wait to watch it. Absolutely. Why don't we... You want to do college football first or you want to get to the finals or five games? Why don't we wrap our five so that we can just put a bow

in that? We have Minnesota plus the three and a half and Pittsburgh plus three is for sure. Those are locks. Those are locks. I like Washington minus the one and a half. pittsburgh plus three is for sure okay those are locks those are locks i like washington minus the one and a half done let's put it in i know that's maybe and you like you like i feel like you like miami minus a plus of three more than anything else you talked about i just like yeah i i think new england stinks and i think that the dolphins offense is not going to be that effective okay so, so then we have now one spot left. We could go with, because Seattle's at home against...

Oh, yeah, Seattle. Who else was at home? Seattle, New Orleans. So New Orleans is on the road. Detroit's at home laying the 5.5. The Giants at home laying the 5.5. Houston plus 4.5 at home. Throw out the Texans.

We don't bet the Texans anymore on this show. Do you want to take a run with one of these favorites, Giants or Lions, at home? What about Seattle? Is it getting points at home for their lives against Mike White? They just haven't played such bad football lately. If you have a feel on the Giants or the Lions, I'm fine with that. It feels very square,

but like, God, I hate having to watch the Giants try to cover five and a half. They never win. They never win games. The Colts are going to quit, man. Like they're that game.

If they get, if the Giants get up seven, nothing, that game's over. Like it's just, it's just over. Let me see what the temperature is going to be. Hopefully it's cold.

Let's see. Oh yeah. Indoor team going outside. is going to be. Hopefully it's cold. Let's see. Oh, yeah. Indoor team going outside. No Jonathan Taylor. It's only been 52 this weekend. Hmm. New Orleans, Seattle, Giants, Lions. Let's do, should we, I mean, and by the way, on the Miami thing, like, it is a risk.

And it's, you know, the game I felt strongest about was Minnesota. If you're just, if you're out on Miami, I'm fine swapping it, but it seems like we don't have one that we like better than that. No. Hmm. I just want,

like, I just, hmm, the Giants, the Giants don't score a lot of points. That's the problem. They don't score a lot. So,

taking them as a big favorite, it's got to be out, right? The Lions can score. The Bears, the Bears just Bears just allow so many points. I think it's by low on the Lions. I think any of these final three are good, responsible

plays. The New Orleans one is the shakiest because it's Dalton on the road. So you're going to put Detroit minus five and a half? So we end up having Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Washington, Miami, Detroit? I'm fine with that. I'm fine staying off of that.

Okay. Yeah, let's do that. Detroit plus five and a half or minus five and a half. Let's go. Minus. I see the Bears are kind of just done, man. They could pull fields on that if that's out of hand. That's not impossible.

I think one thing too about this lion's team too is they got out physical last weekend and i feel like they're gonna come out this weekend and just try to you know pound the bears right like just say we're not gonna take this right and kind of go go after them differently than we've seen them doing don't you think the public was on detroit last week too like everyone loved detroit and i feel like the week after you get burns and then you play a bad team. Except the Sharps. Except the Sharps. The Sharps loved Carolina. That boy steamed up to the Panthers minus

two. I loved Carolina. We didn't do it. Maybe we should have. Why don't you walk us through? Alright, so we've got our five. We've got Miami plus three, the Vikings plus three and a half, Steelers plus three, Washington minus one and a half, and Detroit minus five and a half. Why don't you preview our two college football playoff games here?

The first one is the Saturday earlier game is TCU, Michigan, Michigan seven and a half, maybe eight. All right. It feels like the Wolverines of the play here, right? Oh, absolutely. Yeah. This one's going to get out of hand. I think. You know, Michigan is just so good all over the field, and they're just so physically dominating that I think that you have an opportunity here to really kind of physically control this game. By the way, TCU, you know, is worse in...

So let me see here. Michigan. Okay, here we go. Yeah. So Michigan's better points per drive on offense and defense. Both of them, right? And they're the rated six in special teams

and TCU's 31. I just feel like Michigan will be able to use this rest and recovery to kind of attack them a little bit. Plus TCU does not rush their passer very well and they're bad in the red zone on defense. Those things do not add up to success against this Michigan team. I think this game, and most semifinal games end up being blowouts.

This one feels like it could be like three touchdowns. I think Michigan ends up just dominating. Yeah, it doesn't feel like I've heard one person make the case that this is the spot for TCU. I am already building a cross amateur professional teaser with Michigan that I will reveal after your next game. You need to put Georgia on that teaser, please. Let's talk about Georgia there, unless you have more to add on this game.

What's the number right now? Six and a half, it looks like. Okay. So this is the first ball game i bet immediately um ohio state and this is gonna sound mean but it's not they're a little soft and georgia is not soft and they are going to truck Ohio State. It's going to be ugly. This season, when Georgia has cared about a football game, which has been a handful of times because they're so good, they've absolutely rocked their opponent's world,

and they've covered all these games. I'm going to put it on view. You ready? Oregon, obviously. They kicked Oregon's ass. They cared about playing Florida. They won that game by 22. The next weekend, they went to Tennessee.

The host of Tennessee. I remember the high flying Tennessee team. 23, excuse me, 27-13, they covered that game. They covered the final game of the year in the SEC championship game. 50-30. Mississippi State, ranked Mississippi State team. They won that game 49, excuse me, 45-19.

I can't read for some reason today. When they have one and two play, they have smashed the teams they have played. And I feel like we're going to get that again. Ohio State is very talented. They have good players on the defensive line. They have good players on the offensive line. They have wide receivers.

I think Georgia's just too much. And I get this at six and a half. I'm all for it. All for Georgia. Okay. I like the pick. I'm going to propose to you the following seven-point tees. Okay. Seven points.

I'm just going to propose this. Okay. Georgia plus half a point. You're not supposed to tease through zero, but this is a hundred leg tease. So, so bear with me guys. Michigan minus one. San Francisco minus three at Vegas with Stidham. Pittsburgh plus 10 against Baltimore.

That's the best leg so far. Yeah. Detroit plus one against Chicago. Minnesota plus 10 and a half against Green Bay bay i'm better than this right now and and and kc i would i would not put kansas city in that okay let's dump the chiefs we're getting greedy i feel like i need one more leg though okay um the other giants giants basically just to win t Tees through zero again. Pittsburgh. You put Detroit in there, right?

Uh-huh. Not Philly. Are the Panthers going to lose by 10 points to the Bucs? I can't get killed on the Panthers. What about the – Okay. Not the Rams. Not the Rams.

No. What about – Let's just – Maybe we just stop at – What about the Chargers? What about the Chargers? Just to win? Dude, the Chargers? No, what about... Let's just... Maybe we just stop at... What about the Chargers? Just to win? Dude, the Chargers?

I can't lose this on the Chargers. What about Cowboys? Thursday Night Football. Cowboys down to four and a half. You could re-hit it again if it loses. Or are you just being too good? Oh, yeah. No, that's right.

Then you're basically just... You just do it again. What are we... Wow, there's a nine and a half out there for – at MGM. I don't have that option. Wait a second. Or how about Eagles down to pick them? Eagles just to win? Yeah.

There's some – with the backup quarterback, I'm just a little scared of that. Okay. I see 10 – I mean, we can get that down to three and a half for Dallas. Let's throw that in and then you can void it. You can just dump it. I see – Yeah. Go ahead.

I see the Niners-Raiders game is locked on my account. Chiefs are down to 12 and a half now. That's actually a much better teaser number though. Under six. It's six right now. That's so scary. I'm fine with throwing dallas in there let's screw that we're getting too we're getting too fancy here okay georgia michigan san francisco pittsburgh detroit minnesota uh cool about dolphins interesting dolphins dolphins plus 10 love that okay that's it that's it okay here it is

so what are the odds on a 7.1234567 leg teaser jeff you'll find it i mean it's got to be it's i mean it's probably uh four plus 400 what do you think more higher uh i'm guessing it is going to be higher than that um let's see here all right i'm gonna put a bunch of sides together let's see if i could do this here ready for the record this is an incredibly irresponsible bet that no one should make but a seven leg t's a seven a seven point uh 600 plus 600 plus 600 we love that we love that that's worth the that's worth a little $15 bet. What do you think?

Oh, yeah. It's a half-unit wager for sure, yeah. All right. Let's fly. All right. So we've got our five. We've got our picks. We've got our ridiculous teaser.

Is there anything else? There's a lot of bowls going on. Any other picks you want to make just quickly before we go? I like Washington to beat Texas, but I'll take the three and a half. I like Penn State, unfortunately. I don't like saying this, to beat Utah on the Rose Bowl. You're going to not listen to this, obviously. The game will be over.

But Oregon plays tonight. They're going to score. I took their over 44 and a half, which is a lot of points. But I think they score a bunch of points tonight. So, yeah, man. Another great week of football. We're Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Have a great weekend, everyone. If you like our picks, hate our picks, another great week of football. We're Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Have a great weekend, everyone.

If you like our picks, hate our picks, let us know. Please leave a review at JeffSchwartz at MM410 on Twitter. Take care, everyone. Have a great weekend. Sports watching. Happy New Year. Bye.