Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 18

Episode Date: January 11, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back, and they need a big week to save their season. Tune in for updates on Damar Hamlin's recovery, as well as a look at how the experts are wagering on NFL games this weekend.As always, leave a rating and a comment if you want to show your appreciation for the pod, or tweet @geoffschwartz to tell the man yourself.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday january 5th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz a smile on you powered by the varsity podcast network so much to get into in week 18 this is one last week of the national football season it's been a fun year uh that turned a little bit hectic on monday night we'll discuss a little bit about uh demar hamlin we'll discuss the games this week some matter some do not and we'll discuss where the nfl goes if they do in fact uh declare no contest the tie of the bangles bills game which uh as recording now matt appears that that is going to be the case how are you buddy i'm good i definitely was really rattled uh monday um it's sort of strange to sort of uh you know think ahead to the next week but i i think as we recorded we're recording this uh midday eastern on thursday and we got some good news

this morning from reporters and the bills about damar hamlin so i guess that's probably where we need to start right yeah you know people have been waiting for updates and it's a situation where you know a lot of times with injuries, we get updates fairly quickly, even for players that have had, unfortunately, a neck injury or back concussion or broken bone. I mean, 10, 15 minutes after the player gets hurt, we get an update. Player's okay now, right? For the most part, player's okay.

In this case, we didn't get an update, right? Because it was so serious. It was so unprecedented on NFL field. And sometimes things don't move that fast. And so we've gotten updates throughout the week. And the update we got today has been great that he is awake, at least has woken up for a period of time. He's been able to squeeze the hand of friends and loved ones that are there. The neurological concerns seem to have dissipated. He's still in critical condition, but all the signs it looks like for recovery are hitting the marks as we go. And we're going to get, guys, it's one of those, you kind of have to be patient. I know we're used

to getting updates, you know, but we're going to get one a day. And so far the one a day has been really good. And I want to kind of start, I'm not rehashing what happened on Monday night. You can find my radio show. I was on the Cardin show this week. We talked all of start, I'm not rehashing what happened on Monday night. You can find my radio show. I was on the Cardin show this week. We talked all about that. I'm not going back in that direction, but I want to acknowledge a couple of things here. One is the first responders, the medical personnel who saved his life. We've learned more about the process the last couple of days.

As a player, I did not know that there was an emergency action plan in place. And I assumed, I guess I assumed it, but no one assumes one of your teammates might die on the field, right? Like that's not an assumption that players have. And they practice this all the time. There's a meeting 60 minutes before the game. They designate kind of who the lead is of this medical team, medical personnel there. The NFL has a dedicated doctor on scene, Matt, whose job it is just to clear the airway. That's all they're there for is to make sure the airway works for anyone who needs that. And in this instance, you know, the Bills training staff who was first out there was able to start CPR, was able to kind of get him back into life. And, you know, Albert Breo tweeted out the assistant athletic trainer,

Denny Killington, who was able to administer the CPR for Hamlin. And, you know, to do that, think about it. They practice this all the time. It never happens. It's never happened. Ever. Ever. This athletic trainer has practiced this in the off season. I don't know if they do it during the season

practice at all. And in that moment where, you know, one of, one of his players is, is, is dying, he was dying. He saved his life. So I want to give credit to the medical personnel who, you know, plenty have done that as well. I'm just going to give my credit to them here about, you know, their ability to, to follow the plan in a crisis moment that they practiced for, but never had to execute before. And, um, it's, I'm very impressed. I don't know. I would imagine that there's some way they get honored this weekend as they should. Um, but man, uh, credit to them for, for saving his life. They should. But man, credit to them for saving his life.

Yeah, 100%. It's absolutely the first place we need to start. And you're right. I mean, I think that's what's so interesting. And we were just talking about this off air is this is not something that has ever happened before. And it was such a unique. I mean, I think we all assumed it wasn't. I don't know what we assumed when he went down. I assumed this.

I didn't want to get back into Monday, but we've had it on before Duke Maniweather. He called me immediately, and we both said, did he die? Wow. Because it was such a different feeling. First of all, players don't really collapse backwards like that. He had collapsed. Because it was such a different feeling. Okay. First of all, players don't really collapse backwards like that. Like he had collapsed and he didn't get hit in the head. It was very immediate right away.

Didn't get hit in the head and he collapsed backwards. And then you can see, again, NFL players have seen every injury. I've seen everything. I've seen guys carted off. I've been carted off not for a head injury, but for a broken bone. We've seen everything. Compound fractures, guys, spine injuries. We've seen it carted off. I've been carted off, not for a head injury, but for a broken bone. We've seen everything. It's compound fractures, guys' spine injuries. We've seen it all, right?

And we're conditioned, unfortunately, to see those things and continue to play. But the reaction of the players in the motions, the tears, made it seem like it was different. Plus, the medical personnel that rushed there, that's also something that's different. Like, again, there's a rhythm to when guys get hurt and um like i know i know ryan shazier is a colleague of of of yours i guess mine um as well you guys do podcasts with him when he got hurt it was fairly obvious to see what happened right away like there was in the reaction from players the reaction from training staff and in this moment we saw you know that the at least for me as a player in duke who trains players like the

different reaction that the players had to this instance and then obviously the amount of work they did at the time so i i thought the worst right away because again it was so different than anything else he did not get hit in the head that's one thing too that i think if we got in the head feel a little different. But players don't collapse backwards like that, right? We've seen players like, you know, in 42 of this year, when he stumbled, he stumbled forward, right? They fall forward.

But to collapse backwards like he did, that's what I thought right away. And unfortunately, I guess it's going to be fortunately, they're able to save him. But, you know, when you see enough injuries, you feel like at times you can sort of like almost self-diagnose the amount of um you know like terror in the player's eyes about what the injury could be and when the players reacted the way they did immediately it was it was pretty bad so um but yeah do you can add that we had that call three seconds in we called each other right away and that's both of us said the exact same thing yeah well i think you brought up this sort of quick reaction and i you know my only perspective to offer here is one of a someone who's produced

live television before and what really struck me was the difference between how all of us were kind of feeling and how what the conversation was like online and then how espn handled it in the moment like producers worst nightmare is crisis like okay we're coming back to the studio we don't know anything you have a huge audience that's this is turning into not just a sports story but a national story that you know the president has called damari emil's parents you know a huge audience that's this is turning into not just a sports story but a national story that you know the president has called damari emil's parents you know a few days later um good luck you know so i just think that it's kind of amazing how espn through the night i mean van pelton brian clark got a lot of credit later but in the moment how suzy culver and booger

mcfarland and adam schefter just handled it and buck and acheman with just hey we don't really know what's going on we're concerned we care and i just i thought that that was just such a good lesson i think just for everybody was just hang on like we don't need to do anything right away like we just need to hold a beat get the information trust the doctors and hope for the best right now and i just thought that that was of the many inspiring parts of the story i thought that the calmness and empathy displayed in that moment from a lot of people there's a lot of things that could have gone wrong and gone off the rails and i'm almost like just proud of like the sports media community for for the most part obviously and online is sort of a different thing but in real life um just how everyone sort of coalesced around this hey we just got to make sure that this guy's

okay and um i don't know i was inspired by that it's interesting you say that because a lot of people did you know give espn kudos and they deserve that but then the nfl gets bashed for not canceling the game immediately when you know they knew the same information that espn knew which is nothing right they have nothing and and they're in more you know more communication with the teams and otherwise and you know i tweet out like about an hour afterwards like just cancel the game already right which just appeared when the when the coaches pulled the players off the field that was the end in my opinion of the game there was no game was to be restarted you know people have kind of bashed the nfl for the five minute thing, which, again, I actually believe the NFL.

I don't think they called down. Hey, five minutes? I think that's procedure. Long stoppage, five minutes. Go ahead. I commend the coaches for pulling the players off. It was very clear. You know what?

They showed Joe Burrow throwing the ball kind of lightly because they were on offense, right? Yeah. And they kind of showed then Josh Allen, and the life was kind of like not there in his face. I knew right then the Bills weren't playing. I commend the, the life was kind of like not there in his face. I knew right then the bills weren't playing. And I commend the coaches for, for,

for ultimately pulling the players off. But, you know, there's a lot that goes into kind of just canceling a game or postponing a game. And I think the NFL took their time to do so, which maybe they could have done it 30 minutes earlier. But,

you know, I also think there's a part of this where I mentioned the start of this, a lot of times when guys get taken to the hospital, there's an immediate, they're good. Like they're good. And I think the NFL was hopeful that was going to happen here.

They were going to get a report 12 months after he left. He's awake. If you recall, this happened in a soccer match a couple of years ago. And like two hours later, the soccer player in question was at the hospital, like posting selfies, like good to go.

I think the NFL was hopeful that would happen, but it just didn't. The last sort of topic on this, it doesn't have to do so much with Hamlin. And again, I believe actually as we're recording this, there might be updates pending. So I think that we're going to maybe give you guys an update as we go here, whether there's an update on Helmuth's condition. The hospital system is going to speak in a few minutes. So this quickly turned to a discussion about NFL player safety. And it's a rightful discussion to have, a discussion that needs to be talked about.

There was talk about insurance and disability, all those things that are certainly worth talking about. Extra games, you know, should the players get more time off? Should there be more buys? All that valid conversations to have. However, this is not a player safety problem. This is a freak accident that happened on a routine tackle. This is not something where the NFL could have prevented it by having less padded practices.

It's not a situation where the NFL could have prevented it by having less padded practices. It's not just a way for the NFL could have prevented this by giving players more insurance. And again, I'm off insurance. I would wish that I had my NFL insurance still. I'm paying out of pocket now like everyone else in America does. I wish my five years would still be there. And those are all valid discussions to have. But the reaction, and I get people want to be angry in the moment i get it but like the nfl doesn't care about their players they might not but in this instance they

did and in this instance this is not a player safety problem this is just a freak accident that happened and we're very happy that that he is doing much better as you record this and it appears he's on the path to a a rightful recovery but this is not matt in my mind a player safety issue it's just a freak accident that happened and the nfl had protocols in place that set them up for success to get his life back it's really it's a really subtle distinction in a world where we don't have a lot of nuance and i think you're exactly right like i think that you know just you're going over rehashing just how much the how impressed we are with the first responders there to go through this protocol that they've never done before

is an indicator that you're right this isn't just like hey we just need to change the equipment or whatever this seemed to be like a really unbelievable thing that happened and i think we're you're right in the moment there's just all this anger and maybe guilt and maybe just like confusion and it's just easy to just sort of say stuff and um yeah i don't know i think it's like a good lesson to like hey just just you don't have to tweet anything right like our colleague gabe he once told me uh you can't get fired for the tweet you don't send and i kept thinking about that that night where everybody had this urge to sort of jump into the Like our colleague, Gabe, he once told me, you can't get fired for the tweet you don't send. And I kept thinking about that that night where everybody had this urge to sort of jump into the conversation and weigh in. And it's like, just hang on.

We don't know anything. We're just sitting here watching, just trying to figure this thing out together. And one last thing I wanted to say that I don't mean to make light of the situation, but everyone was talking about, why haven't they canceled the game already? Like, have you ever been to a birthday party where someone decides it's time to go to another bar it takes like 45 minutes to tell everybody and get everybody out and get an uber and do all that stuff it takes time yeah and i just think that everyone was sort of looking for some nefarious thing everyone was stunned it was a monday night it was this game that everyone was so excited to watch yeah i think that it's it's okay to take a second and figure out the best thing to do like i think we need to enforce reinforce that instinct and not just like we just got to make the right decision

immediately um because it's really hard to do that absolutely and there's no good transition here to more of the football discussion here but that game between the bills and bangles was uber important right it was determining the one seed for the AFC Conference. It was potentially determining the two and three seed. It potentially would have allowed the Bengals to clinch the AFC North. And it appears as we are recording this now, and I felt this all along, they're not playing this game again, right? I think it is heartless to make the Bills players go back to Cincinnati and restart the game in the exact spot that their teammate called.

That's what would have happened. They would have started the game 7-3 in the first quarter right where that happened. And that, to me, was never going to happen ever. There was talk about, oh, we can move. Never going to happen. The NFL we saw last year for COVID two years ago, they moved nothing. They're not changing the playoffs for anything, unfortunately. but two years ago, they moved nothing.

They're not changing the playoffs for anything, unfortunately. And so the next question becomes what happens with the seating in the AFC conference? So if it's declared no contest, which is assumed, or a tie, I think the decision matters for how they pay the players, honestly, because I think a no contest, I don't think counts as a game played and you get paid for the games you play. So if you remember the COVID year, there was talk of they canceled the game. No one would get paid for that week, and players were very angry about that.

So either or, it's the same situation that happens. No contest, the game's not played. Tie, you get a tie on the record. So what happens now with the seeding? Because as it stands now, a Chiefs win on Saturday against the Raiders would give them the one seed no matter what happens with the Bills game or the Bengals games this weekend. If the Chiefs lose and the Bills lose, the Chiefs get the one seed, right? So the Chiefs are set up for the one seed, put it like that, in this situation,

unless they lose and the Bills and Bengals both win. And then I believe the Bills have the one seed and the Chiefs go to three and the Bengals have the two, something like that. And we'll get into the games later in a few minutes. Just talk about figuring this out with a neutral site. So basically the Chiefs end up hosting the AFC championship game. They would play a neutral site. There was some talk thrown out there about the one seed gets to choose

between a buy and home field. And then the two seed gets to react off of that i would choose the buy if you're the chiefs in a heartbeat one less game to play um and i don't know where they go from here there's there's talk about expansion for uh eight teams in this playoffs so no one gets a buy um which i guess congrats your washington football team they're still in it buddy um which would totally change by the way this weekend right if they announce that after we record the lines are going to be different we have to re-record our whole show yeah for half these games so um i feel like they can't do that no no complicated extra game i i honestly think that that really the way this is going to work

is they're going to say no contest or tie, and they're just going to let it go. And if the Chiefs get the one seed, they get the one seed. Like, that's just the way it's going to be, in my opinion. It's unfair. I'm with you, Bills fans, Bengals fans. Bengals were the least likely team to get the one seed out of all kind of the way this is going to work out. Because if the Bengals won that game, Chiefs would still have to lose this weekend likely team to get the one seed out of all kind of the way this is going to work out.

Because even if the Bengals won that game, Chiefs would still have to lose this weekend for them to have the one seed. It's not fair. It's not fair. I'm with you. I am with you, Bills fans. I'm with you, Bengals fans. It is not fair.

But I don't think the NFL is going to do more than that. Because then you kind of mess with everything else, right? And we saw during the COVID year, the was was unlikely to to mess with other things to make other things right when it was just a team or two um what do you think is gonna happen i've i mean we work on all these shows you mentioned all the shows you go on producer hank and i work on all kinds of shows i've like spun around every argument in my head and every time i start i'm like i have no clue and like you know i whatever i play devil's advocate all the time it's kind of the job but it's like what are you trying to do you're trying to

not give anyone a competitive disadvantage for a you know a tragedy right but there's sort of no right answer to figure out i you know there this thing. I think they're just going to say this game essentially didn't happen. I don't think there's a way to push the playoffs back or have this extra game. There's just sort of no way. I don't know. But I think that for Buffalo and for their fans, it's like how do you how do you even just move on how do you then put this into context like watching the sort of roller coaster of

emotions on that team like this could lift them up and propel them of course but if this also could just be like somebody might not want to play football ever again I don't know like it's going to be such a complex reaction here that it's so hard to predict week to week what might happen that's a good question we're going to attack that when we talk about the bills but like when the bills play pictures this weekend but because it's not a like a football injury per se i don't know if players will go out there kind of scared it might happen to them. Yeah. But I think they go out there with a heavy heart because they're teammates in the hospital.

Right. Like those are obviously two distinctions there. But, you know, are the Bills mentally kind of ready to play the Pacers this weekend? But I don't think they go out there thinking like, oh, I can't take a hit because that might happen to me. Yeah. I think they think like, my guy's been in the hospital. How do we prepare for this game? And again, we might get more updates as we go along here about his condition.

But there was talk about – not talk about, but there was reports that Hamlin's father spoke to the team, which really helped the team relax a little bit. And I really do think – I think if we get more positive news, which appears, I think we're getting there by Sunday, you know, the mood of the bills could change in a heartbeat, right? I mean, if they get new Saturday night that he's up and walking again,

I don't know what, you know, obviously that changes how they feel. So, yeah. So I just think that there's, there's many different ways that this could go, but I think in the end,

the passive, the path of least resistance is like no contest chiefs when win, they get the one seed, and sorry, Bills and Bengals. I think that's what the NFL is going to do. I think, I'm sure if there are any Comandantes fans listening to this, that you can't help but think about when this happened. Well, not this happened, but another tragedy happened with sean taylor in 2007 he was shot in a it might have been a bi-week um but it was coming back from a road trip or something like that but of course he passed away in the middle of the season and they played and the first the the week after they played and they took a player off the field for the first play they played with 10 players um and it wasn't even announced i'm not

even i think the story was that joe gibbs didn't even know that they were doing that so what did you know for all of the criticism that the nfl has gotten rightfully or wrongfully i think as a culture and as a sports culture we have so much more empathy imagine if that had happened now i don't think there would have been i think everyone would have said like well of course they wouldn't play the following week like obviously it wasn't an on-field injury but it was a teammate like my thought is like how can you sort of move forward if your teammate and your friend and you know your brother your family whatever is is in the hospital like that's that's really hard um you mentioned ryan chazier and the team of course kept playing that game not

knowing exactly the extent of his injury um but players move forward all the time and i i think i'm impressed with how how we are beginning to showcase a little bit more care for the athletes as people um because we've come a long way that it's not always been the case. Yeah. Well, I do think that because this is, again, this is about life and death, right? I mean, again, most times it's not about death, ever about death of players when they're still playing, right? Excuse me. I take that back. When they're on the field, right?

You mentioned Sean Taylor. There's been players who have passed away at certain times, but not on the field. And when players are on the field, they're looked at as my fantasy football guy, right? Right. Or warriors or like, but that in this instance, it was so different than we'd ever seen before. I hope that people do understand that we are players and the reaction of the players. And this is why I think it was so powerful to see those players react the way they did and why we knew right away that it wasn't something that was usual, right?

It was the reaction of Josh Allen and Stephon Diggs and the Bengals players. And I think there was a moment too where I saw they were focused on Sean McDermott either talking or praying to himself. And it was just different look than you'd ever see from a coach who's walking around. It wasn't even taking a knee, just kind of walking around. So yeah, but it appears that he's on the path for recovery and um we'll update you throughout the podcast if we hear anything else it's not live radio obviously but um we'll let you know if we if we hear anything else and uh let's get uh to your

games this week buddy uh no easy way to transition into this week but uh there are games um and we're going to talk about them the chiefs are the first team up uh they play the raiders jared stidham what a start to his career in las vegas uh the chiefs are big favorites eight and a half nine nine and a half um are you trusting your chiefs to win big no this game no absolutely not um they're gonna win they're not gonna win big i mean again they're back to doing the chiefs things i do think the stidham thing could be kind of like a one a one-man show like a one-hit wonder right you just kind of prepare for this game you end up you end up hitting it kind of right when you hit it but um no man i mean kansas city is just you can't

wager them in the spot right they're they're just not as trustworthy as they should be. Plus, their defense is not good. And backdoor cover, you're up, what, 15 points, 16 points with two minutes left. And the Raiders are down score, and now you haven't covered. Yeah. I mean, kind of hard not to take the Raiders here. Don't think that the Chiefs are, I mean, the Chiefs never win big. These games, the Raiders always play the Chiefs close. mean the chiefs never win big these games the raiders always play

the chiefs close obviously usually car is involved in those we've talked a million times about my home's record when it's this big of a spread it's in vegas um i don't know like i are we get if we can't find i know we don't usually bet against the chiefs but you didn't mention our record by the way we do yeah we were we were uh three and two last week we're 40 and what 40 and 42 something like that yeah so we need we need to go four and one is that what needs to happen here four we need to avoid the uh the tie break the tie break yeah so we need to go four and one so we need we need games that are gonna you know even if they don, even if they don't jive with us, we need to be serious this week. So I would nominate the Raiders as a, hey, you just kind of lay it with this number, right?

I feel like no matter what we do with the Chiefs, whether we bet all the Chiefs or get Chiefs, that never works. We're wrong every time. I know. Yeah. So, all right. Well, that's a soft, soft maybe. Okay. I know.

Yeah. So, all right, well, that's a soft, soft, maybe the night game on Saturday, the AFC South championship between the Titans,

Josh Dobbs and the Jaguars. I'm seeing six and a half or six. And if we don't take the Titans, Jeff, we're assholes. You have to take the Titans. There's just, there's no way that you're, you're going to convince me to

take the jaguars none oh man really the titans yeah really the titans this is like they've been our first of all they've been our team all year and they haven't covered for one reason because of mike fable who is 10 and4 against the spread with extra rest since he's been the coach. Tennessee never goes on these losing streaks. He's got over 500 records straight up as an underdog in his career. He's gotten 11 days to prepare with Josh Dobbs. Who's much better. Who looked competent off two or three days it feels like a lifetime ago now

he looked much better than malik willis did and he looked better than ryan tannahill did like ryan tannahill was clearly compromised the last few weeks with his ankle um so i mean this is we're expecting a jags blowout we think the titans aren't going to show up for the game that will define their season like we've seen this movie a hundred times before they might not win but and and by the way everyone is going to be putting jacksonville in a teaser that's going to say like well of course they're going to win this game like this is and this is going to blow everybody up on saturday night it's just a guarantee that this is going to be a close game. You know, our favorite person is going to, going to bet on Jacksonville too. And,

you know, in a teaser, of course, every, every square is going to bet Jacksonville this week. All right. I'm good for, I'm good for,

you're right. We have to do it. Even though I've been off the times lately, um, it's for the division. Uh, this is for, um,

there's a weird, there's an outside chance. Jacksonville can actually make the playoffs with, with a loss here. The loss. Yep. It comes down to me really how, how Dobbs plays,

right? Just how is Dobbs able to do enough to keep this game close? So I'm, I'm with you six and a half. Let's do it. And remember, I'm pulling up the, this final from the Cowboys game here,

that game, it was never close, but it felt closer than the 14 point margin. And Derek Henry did not play so that he could play for this game. He's going to run the ball 600 times. They're just going to make the playoffs. That's their only goal. Even if they end up losing, we get basically a touchdown.

I think you just have to do it. And two, Simmons didn't play. A bunch of the best players didn't play last weekend. Yeah, Frabel knows what he's doing. This isn't Josh McDaniels. We can trust this guy uh we certainly can yes i'm with you there all right let's move on to the first sunday game uh vikings bears god did you ever think we'd see nathan peterman again no here he is here he is he's back there are there are three games this weekend in the nfc that face teams resting

against teams that are that need to win basically okay and it's peterman against the vikings and there's two others that we'll get to this one by far is the one that the favorites gonna have the toughest time to win yeah definitely um peterman is uh the bears are seven and a half point underdogs here the vikings either win a close game or lose in a blowout those are the two options they've had this season correct and can we back peterman though i don't know man i don't know about this we can't right we can't do not even a non-starter not happening we will i will never be betting on nathan peterman in life. What would this have been if Fields played? Three?

Three and a half? Yeah, probably. Maybe less. Everyone loves the Bears. It would have been three and a half. Three and a half would have been gobbled up so quickly. Yeah, three probably. Yeah, three, yeah.

Yeah, we'll stay away from this one. We'll stay away. I think the Vikings, they're going to win this game by four to seven points, and we're not betting on the Bears, though. Yeah, and I'll be like, wait, the Vikings won, and they ended up winning 13 games or whatever? Like, when did that happen? And they'll lose in the first round.

The Vikings are 25th in team efficiency right now, 25th. Yeah. I'm very curious who they play in in the playoffs it's going to be fascinating the giants are going to beat them in the playoffs the giants are the 16th that's right and if right now it'd be the vikings would be a three seed oh boy that's going to be a fun one that's actually it's not going to be a fun game at all it's going to be a bad game and the giants are going to win and they're going to somehow like be a touchdown away from being in the NFC Championship at some point. Here are two teams that aren't going to be going anywhere except to Cancun, the Texans and the Colts.

Is Jeff Saturday going to cover a three-point game that will destroy the Colts' draft position just because whatever he does is bad? That's my take. Yeah, but the Texans also need to lose this game and have the one seed. The Texans and the Bears lose this game and have the one seed. The one, right? No, the Texans and the Bears lose too. They have the one.

I mean, the Texans plus three is the only wager to make here. If we bet on this game, what did we learn? No, we're not betting on this game, but I'm saying the Texans plus three are the wager. Yeah. Yeah, I guess.

Don't you feel like this is the game where a lobby's going to be like, come on, guys. Let's go out on a good note. And they, they accidentally win and then they end up with the second pick. I mean, yeah, no,

no, I'm the Texans plus three. Like the Texas are going to win this game. I feel like they've been playing much better. Yeah. Um, I feel like the bears might win. This is like,

this is like, it's just like an absolute situation where the culture dead inside, dude, they are dead inside right now. They, the Colts, let me pull this up here. Just so I have it, just so I have it accurately. Uh, we, so the Colts are dead inside. Dude, they are dead inside right now. The Colts, let me pull this up here just so I have it accurately. So the Colts, Giants beat them 38-10.

The Chargers beat them 20-3. They were up 33-0 against the Vikings and lost. They allowed 33 points in the fourth quarter to the Cowboys and lost 54-21. Like, they're terrible. They're bad. They're really, really bad. And the Texxans by the way they got up on the jacksville but beat the titans week before lost the chiefs overtime lost the cowboys by four like i'm not i wouldn't wager on this game but texans are are the player yeah yep texans are the play but it will not be in our final five to go

over 500 for the year. Maybe all this is a tricky one to Baltimore is going to Cincinnati. Cincinnati, obviously coming off unprecedented week. The Bengals are seven point favorites. That assumes obviously Lamar Jackson will not play. He has not practiced yet this week. Yeah, he's not playing. Yeah.

So, I mean, do we like the Beng to uh to make a statement to win this division so a couple things to note here um the ravens under tyler huntley have scored they scored 10 in the first game he played but he came like in the first quarter then i think they've scored like 13 3 16 and 17 they can't score with him in the game at all um i'd be fine taking the bagels yeah i might be too is there also a part of this where lamar's sitting out for contract reasons oh go on well we talked about yesterday in the card show like the more he sits out the more leverage he gets to tell the ravens like look you guys think without with you know without me being on the flip side the ravens and say well you're always hurt we're not paying you i mean yeah it goes both ways but there's a thought that he just he waits for the playoffs plays in a playoff game and it's like hey guys you came without me so i'm just proving that even more

to you that's true um i do think the i mean he's gonna end up back there next year i think regardless whether it's the franchise tag i mean it's gonna be the franchise tag there's sort of no way that that doesn't happen right yeah but i think this is now the second season in a row where they started they had a really good record and lamar got hurt and then didn't come back and the team kind of fell apart so i it's like yes you can look at it one way or the other but um i don't know this this feels like a maybe there's the bangles you know they're still playing for a lot obviously but the ravens d is tough the ravens just always are tough all the time so i also think there's this part of this too like we just don't know what the bangles mindset's gonna be right exactly

yeah and then that's why you just like you just kind of stay away from this right now yeah yep i agree yeah um okay uh next game with somehow with playoff implications are the jets at the dolphins the jets obviously are eliminated but the dolphins are alive they need a win and they need a little bit of help from the patriots losing to buffalo um we think it's skylar thompson but the dolphins signed mike mike glennon today oh geez which is never the sign of a team you want to bet on we were like 40 minutes in can we just skip this one like i you don't have a take here yeah i don't either we've skylar it was teddy bridgewater i take the dolphins but they're not they're not in yes all the money is on the jets i i this is too hard to predict on thursday yeah um all right panther saints uh panthers good so three and a half i kind of like the panthers plus four here

there's fours available yep um so a couple things one is in week 18 when two teams are playing for nothing which the panthers and saints are i think think there's two ways to approach the game, right? If you have a coaching staff that's leaving, as the Panthers might be, you need to play hard because you need to continue to put out good film and continue to show out because other teams are going to be watching this game thinking those guys are going to be released, they're going to be cut. Steve Wilkes, the Panthers head coach, has done a really good job. They put a bat a fourth quarter against the Bucs.

They were that close to winning the division. He's kind of coaching for his job as it reports now that Jim Harbaugh is being accorded by the Panthers owner, David Tepper. On the other hand, you have the Saints who are returning a coach. Dennis Allen's not getting fired, right? And if you're like a veteran player on that team, you're kind of looking forward to next year already, right? You're out of the playoffs.

If you're a little beat up, they might not play you. They might play some younger players in this game. I just feel like the Panthers are in a better shape to finish strong than the Saints are right now. It's a really nice take. I'm fine with this. I mean, why are the Saints favorite over anybody? The Panthers are competent.

It's just a maybe for me, a plus four. But there's not a lot of great games, in my opinion, this week. And I think the Panthers will play hard this week. Darnold going into free agency off a tough week. Yeah, that's a fine four points to grab. Okay, so the next game, as we get some updates on DeMar Hamlin. Yeah, we'll tie those into the bill. Is this what we're doing, bills right now?

Yeah, bills, pats, next game. So as we're recording this, the doctors at the hospital in Cincinnati are talking right now. They basically echoed what we've reported earlier today on this podcast, not earlier today, but on this podcast earlier, reported earlier today on this podcast, not earlier today, but on this podcast earlier, that he has shown substantial improvement in his condition over the last 24 hours. He continues to awaken.

He suffered cardiac arrest, and it was immediately recognized by the Buffalo Bills medical staff. But he's critically ill still, and they're still monitoring him. But he's in the right direction uh that they um would hope for kind of a full recovery it's wonderful that that's even on the board um yeah man i just it's it's hard to uh it's hard to think about a young kid

going through this and all his uh family and friends um I don't know. Are we capable of talking about this football game? It's a full is favored by seven, seven and a half. I'm not sure there's any gambling take to this, but this is an interesting game. For many reasons I mentioned, like if the bills lose,

it kind of solves all the NFL problems. If the chiefs win, right? Cause then you, the chiefs are the one seed in that game against the Bengals is far less important, right? Very true. If the Patriots win, they're in the playoffs.

In. In. Winning in. And this game will matter in about two games to how we wager on the Steelers and Browns in my opinion. But I would say that right now, you're're not going to wage right look again there's two schools of thought right one of one is that the bills come out like fired up right

for for hamlin we're going to make this happen but um i i don't know i i don't know if that is what they're going to feel like a quick note by by the way, one of the, the doctors said that right now during the press conference that he emerged from his sleep. He followed commands and he, and, and asking who won the game, but he clarifies that he could not speak because he has a breathing tube still in and he's been communicating in writing last night and today.

Huh? So that's a pretty remarkable. That's unbelievable. So, so, so, So that's pretty remarkable. That's unbelievable. So these type of news updates feel like it would help the Bills prepare better to play this weekend. But again, I don't feel like this. I'm not wagering this game. Yeah, of course.

Wow, that's good news. So, yeah. Wow. He seems to be going in the right direction um but uh yeah so we're not we're still enjoying this game yeah gosh hopefully by the time people hear this there's even more um more good news to share uh okay moving on to uh bucks falcons some i feel like an idiot moving us along bucks falcons uh falcons are as you would do it yeah three and a half or four or four and a half maybe uh the bucks claim they might play some starters this week um claiming they need more work some people are claiming that's a little bit fishy um but I can't imagine we're betting on Desmond Ritter.

No, no. God, this week is so weird. Wait, the Bucs are getting four and a half? Looks like we can get that number somewhere. Stand by. I mean, Tampa Bay is going to play their starters for a little bit. Four, four and a half at Vandal, yeah. So, by the way, the doctor's uh response to when the uh hamlet said

you want uh did we win was the response was demar um you won you won the game of life huh okay i guess i feel pretty good about where it's at right now wow geez uh puts our jobs in perspective a little bit. Yeah, I guess to come back to this silly NFC South game, the Bucs are getting four and a half at FanDuel. We could snag this one or stick it in the maybe category for now because I do think that the best games are still coming. There are much better games right now. Sorry, I got sidetracked with this update.

That's kind of heavy, man. just it just he just said like you know did you win the first thing he asked when he woke up it's crazy yeah that's unbelievable yeah um okay i'm sorry to keep moving us along uh i'm not usually on air anyway so if it's awkward it's even more awkward because of me um next game up is brown steelers uh steelers laying two and a half or three uh those so go on dolphins lose path pats lose steelers in the playoffs with a win yep i am on the steelers in this game heavy my friend yeah i think you have to be even though there's this I have this weird feeling of like wait a second isn't this the kind of game the Steelers blow in the past um it just doesn't feel like it against this Browns team even though they

they knocked my come and Dante's out last week um I don't know I mean but that was more look that was Watson's best game because the commanders didn't give a shit about playing with Carson Wentz in the game. Let's be honest. They look terribly. Yep. The Steelers defense is going to play well against Watson. I agree. And by the way, I think Watson was nine for 18 or something.

His numbers were not good at all. It just came on three passes. I think Kenny Pickett's got a little juice, man. There's something about him that I want to believe believe in kenny pickett yeah yeah 100 he's just got that like that game-winning drive against the ravens was a real drive like that was a real defense and a must-win spot and he threw that that little wheel route thing that had harris was like a really nice pass this is usually the kind of spot i mean there if you're reading action network and all the gambling sites they're gonna take cleveland they're all taking cleveland everybody's saying like hey there's

that and it's true about 65 of the time when you're in this situation a team with nothing to play for against a team with a lot to play for getting in the playoffs you want to bet on you want to back the browns they win they cover 65 of the time but i don't think that's here i don't think mike tomlin is is going to get caught up here, especially against the Browns. The Browns are definitely going to show up and play. There's a lot of bad blood in this rivalry, but the Steelers own the Browns. 18 straight regular season home wins against the Browns. That's unbelievable. Minka Fitzpatrick probably coming back this week. Pittsburgh has been very good against

bad teams this year against the spread. They seem to be one of those teams that has a tough time with a way better team, but beats the worst teams. So I think I'm very confident being like, cool, Vrabel and Tomlin, let's go. Yes, under a touchdown, I'm an underfigure. I'll certainly take it. Yeah.

How about this one, Jeff? The first 430 game on Sunday, Rams-Seahawks. Rams getting six and a half. I mean, we got to take the Rams here, right? No. Really? I'm not saying we take the Seahawks, but you want to take the Rams here?

Or are you just saying that if we were to wager on the game, you'd take the Rams? I'm not sure yet. I'm curious what your take is, because I just feel like this is that trend, right? A team with nothing to play for. They're getting a few extra points. The Rams, I forget which wheel of the spoke of the NFC West this is,

but obviously these two teams play each other all the time. McVay and Carroll have gone against each other a lot. This is a lot of points. The Rams have been pretty good lately. Sneaky. They have nothing to gain by losing this game or arresting Baker Mayfield, who's trying to get another job next year. And Seattle, they beat Mike White, who clearly was not healthy last week. I don't think the Seahawks looked great. I think the Jets just kind of looked like they were flat. So again i mean give me six and a half with sean mcveigh and a chance to spoil the seahawks

season like i just feel like that's such a such a nice chance i like i mentioned with the saints like what are the rams players playing for pride i guess like well some of them are playing i mean they're it's not like this game comes down to whether aaron donald plays or not it's like these guys are playing right for their next contract like baker mayfield i'm with you there he puts another game on tape he might convince he might be the ram starter next year i mean let we don't know what's up with matthew stafford yeah um what i mean they are let's see here yeah so there's a weird like stat some guy on action network is like has this like against his formula has this like 36 percent of the time that seahawks

will cover this game something like that um so yeah that's that's that stat it's 65 percent of the time this the rams cover um and we just went against it in the other side but you know the the seahawks had lost three straight coming into this one of them was against carolina at home like it's not like they're this super there's this juggernaut um remember two weeks ago the rams put up 51 against denver like they've got some life six and a half here yeah okay we don't have to put it if we've got more we like it just feels like i don't know i feel like mcveigh just spoils this like there's not many left that i really feel great about so yeah i mean like do you feel great about this one the broncos plus three

we just skip this game i kind of do like denver here because no no i'm not going to play for no all right we'll pass it no we're not even, oh, by the way, you guys should just make sure to kind of Google search some incentives this weekend for prop betting. So Gerald Everett needs five receptions, I believe, for the Chargers tight end for a huge bonus. Yeah, Christian Kirk has some. Yeah, there's a bunch of them. So just pay attention. Some of those are unattainable. I think MVS needs 21 catches from the Chiefs this weekend to make that

happen. But we're not raging on the Broncos here. I mean, you rage on the Broncos because you think that the Chargers are untrustworthy, right? Yeah. I mean, it does feel like the Broncos maybe turned a corner without Hackett. It does feel like

Russ had a little bit of life. They do feel like the kind of... They have no Like maybe this, they do feel like the kind of, they have no pick, obviously like they do feel like the kind of team that might want to end the season on a high note charges of nothing to play for, but it's not like, I don't know. Well,

the charges are still playing for the five proceeding. Right. But it's at this point in the day, who's, who are they competing with? Ravens, the Ravens. So they,

right. They would probably already know. But point stands, I could, I could stand without betting on Jerry Rosberg. Last game of the afternoon slot giants, Eagles, Eagles looks like,

I mean, this line assumes that Jalen hurts is coming back. Cause this is a 14 point line. It assumes that giants aren't playing anybody, which they're not. And Jalen hurts is back. I think both, but they're, they're not assumes the Giants aren't playing anybody, which they're not. And Jalen Hurts is back. I think both, but the Giants are not playing anybody this weekend. They have nothing to gain or lose from this game.

They are the 16th. So, I mean, what do you think? I think I really like the Giants. I mean, they do have something to play for. No, they don't. Yeah, they do. They're screwing the Eagles. They knocked the Eagles out of first place. Jones and Barkley have something to play for. No, they don't. Yeah, they do. They have that screwing the Eagles. Yeah, but they're not the Eagles out of first place.

Jones and Barkley are going to play. So Tyra Taylor is going to play. Like, how much worse is that? Obviously, we cannot bet on the Giants backup quarterback in this contest. Just saying they're just going to just do nothing. Like, they're just going to get steamrolled. They're going to steamrolled they're gonna be like cool jalen hurts is back like great let's give them some confidence going into the playoffs they're not gonna compete it's they're down 17 in the fourth quarter they're just gonna hand it off four times yes why why bother why bother i mean uh dude tyra come on jalen hurts they're gonna be like cool you're back

in this game that only matters for seating i think the first half let's put you out there and run run you 20 times i think the first half is where you bet the eagles yeah eagles the first half will play uh and why is that because the giants going to backdoor? Those Eagles are probably going to pull out Hurts. This game could be 21-0 at halftime, and no one scores the second half. Right. Well, it's a fair point, but I do think that if we're looking for a fifth game, I do think there's dumber plays. This would be a dumb one, taking the cardinals plus 14 at at san francisco um so now you want to take a big favorite no i don't want to pay attention to this game at all um

for the same reasons essentially i trust the niners way more to cover the 14 that do the eagles is this were you interested in this one? If we needed one, I would be fine with it, but I don't, you know, I don't know if this is one that I feel great about. No DeAndre Hopkins. God, I'm sorry, I do not have an

opinion on this. No, it's fine. I mean, we shouldn't. I mean, the Niners are gonna, I think, steamroll them. So, it is what it is. They could, I mean, you could talk about Like, they're playing for the one seed. we shouldn't i mean the irs are gonna i think steamroll them so it is what it is they could i mean you could talk like they're playing for the one seat they are playing for the one seed the cardinals are dead maybe this i mean this you don't want to play a 14 point favorite but i i'm not horrified by this concept somehow huh um more more updates about hamlet as we go through this i know it's kind of awkward to keep injecting these but one of the doctors said that uh they explained to hamlin what happened

and quote he expressed surprise that he had not been with the world for two days wow wow unbelievable um okay awkward segue alert back to my my commanders uh plus now this number is really all over the place uh we're seeing plus seven seven and a half i think in the super contest uh with sam howell against the cowboys um i don't know if you can take the seven and a half for dallas but hard hard to hard to handicap this one in sam sam hall's first start yeah um we talked about if they give this if they like add extra like seed to like the uh to the playoffs like washington they played they start someone else this week like how do they do um i think you just you just can't play this one right it's just the cowboys are like this is it is though we The Cowboys are like, it is though,

it would be very Cowboys to lose this game, right? It would. It would be very Ron Rivera to win a meaningless game to show some heart because he cares about winning. Everyone's talking about

how he needs to get fired for A, not knowing they could be eliminated. B, more importantly, putting Carson Wentz in the game the level of purgatory that jeff that that common dante's fans are in is we can't consider firing ron rivera because we assume that dan snyder is no longer going to be the owner which is still a humongous if granted he he seemed to have changed his residence to somewhere out of the country which generally does not bode well for a person whose chief business is located in uh landover

maryland yes um so i have a feeling that uh ron rivera is going to be the coach because who is taking this job like who are you getting that's better like you you think frank reich just to say a name is going to take this job like what are we talking about no he's certainly not um i need your expert opinion and maybe hanky even way in here uh major tutty i mean yes yes no hell yes hell no the team's being sued by jeff bostick and joe jacoby guys so you probably grew up idolizing i imagine a little bit um the fact because they're they're uh appropriating the hog and uh i don't know man i think any other team might have pulled it off but i just think this fan base is so tired of this stupid franchise they need to be called it says it needs to be a commander tutty because uh major is a different rank

i didn't even get the rank thing i'm assuming that i love the world war one helmet he's wearing i i gotta be honest i don't hate it i just i think the name's stupid major tutty is stupid i love that the pig's body is like has a fat belly but in like skinny legs it's i i just think uh I don't know, like, why not call the team the Hogs then? Like, if you're like, well, this is clearly like the spirit of our team, it's like, then why are we the Comandantes? Enough

commanders talk, we're passing on that game. Game of the week, Sunday night football, Lions-Packers, four and a half, I thought this number was higher, at least in the Super Contest it is, but right now we're seeing four and a half. I thought this number was higher, at least in the Super Contest it is. But right now we're seeing four and a half. What do you want to do?

Oh, I don't know, buddy. I have no idea. If Seattle wins against the Rams, then this game is unimportant for the Lions. They cannot make the playoffs. I don't think that matters. No, it doesn't matter. I think they chose this game in the Sox because they know the Lions will play hard no matter what. But the Lions have been just worse on the road.

It's like Jared Goff's been worse on the road. They've won some road games, but they've been worse on the road. They're much better inside. They're much better at home. Oh, no, man. Are the Packers trustworthy now? No. Everyone's in the way of the Packers.

Exactly. Which, like, I think is a really nice chance to bet the Lions. trustworthy now? No. Everyone's in the way of the Packers. Exactly. Which, like, I think is a really nice chance to bet the Lions. The Lions are better. The Lions seem healthier. You know, every week it seems like Lazard or Watson or somebody goes down with some sort of little injury. I think this is the chance. This is Detroit's moment. Maybe they end up losing by a field goal, and it's heartbreaking,

but that would be within the four and a half. I think other than quarterback, they're clearly better everywhere. Maybe you could argue that Coach LeFleur is an advantage. But I would be fine backing the Lions in just a game that we figure is probably going to be close no matter what. Oh, I don't hate it. I mean,

you'd see this be a field goal game, right? That put the lines in the cover. Yeah. And, and to the outdoor thing, the, the lion style lends itself to outdoor football more than previous Jared

golf team. Absolutely. Cause they were on the hand, the ball to Jamal Williams 30 times. Like they absolutely like last week i forget they played last week but it was just like the game was over they were up by a thousand and they just kept scoring because they would be like well we'll just run the ball but every play they would get 20 yards exactly i think uh was it the colts last week um but yeah i just

i think the lions are a really tough matchup. The Lions put the Bears. The Bears, right. So I think the Lions are going to be really, really tough out starting now. And maybe I'm just wish-casting this a little because I just love this team. But let's go, man. I think the Lions are a tasty dog here. We have five then, it appears. Let me know if I'm wrong here.

Ready? Go for it. Tennessee plus six and a half Saturday night. Pittsburgh minus two and a half at home against the Bengals. The Browns. The Browns. Rams at Seattle plus six. Six and a half. Six and a half.

Carolina plus four at New Orleans. And Detroit at Green Bay plus four and a half. So four road underdogs. I mean, this is a pretty nice set of wagers. I feel like I'm pretty hot on the Rams. I mean, this is for our season, Jeff. We got to go 4-1. Are there four winners here?

We got to go 4-1 because, well, 4-1 puts us where? It puts us at, what, 44-43. Yeah, so we clear that mark. A 3 and 2 week, which is basically what we have most weeks we win, means that we're going to be down 1 because we lost a tiebreaker. That's right. What do you think? What holds you up here?

I'm good with these 5. We finish 500 every year. Do you have a spot to be in because you don't make anyone money right like people fading us or not or with us just make no money either way that's right but hopefully the games where we're most convinced are the ones you bet on and i feel like we've been good at we've been good when we've really felt confident so i feel like we

have as well i like these games this week, and I think we're going to ride off into the sunset in style. We absolutely are. Again, there's look up guys, look up the prop wagers. There's many prop wagers available this weekend for guys looking to get incentives to kind of

Mahomes, he's like 429 yards to break man's record for passing yards. And this is a lot of ways, I think, this weekend to make other money if you're looking at some props for the weekend. So take a look at that. Some of those aren't even up yet. So it's hard to really know whether or not you can take them. But just kind of have those in mind as they start to post on your favorite sportsbook.

And one more regular season week. We'll let you know, I guess, by now, the NFL has decided what they're doing with that. Bills and Bagels game, it's not going to happen. We'll get into the playoffs. We'll have a lot of fun during the playoffs, Matt. We sure will. Where are we with college?

Is there anything you want to hit on? I thought TCU and Ohio State would not cover. They did. I think that Georgia, it's like a 14-point spread is a lot. No, it's 12 and a half now. I think Georgia kind of smokes them. Interesting that we're getting a line move towards TCU. Yeah, because it's a lot of points.

My thing about this game is that TCU, so if you just assume, we talk about this often, if you just kind of assume that teams return to the mean, oh my God, by the way, I went into my sports book and the Pat Mahomes total this week is 322 and a half yards. Is that his incentive? No, it's like 400, but I'm not betting over 322 yards. Get out of your mind.

So, you know, there's a return to the mean, right? So Georgia played their worst game on defense of the season. And TCU doesn't have quite the same players to push Georgia defensively that we saw Ohio State have. So I think there's a return to the mean for the Georgia defense. But also TCU won a game in which Michigan scored 45 points, Michigan threw two pick sixes, and they had two drives and inside the two-yard line

with no points, Matt. So I just think kind of a return to the mean makes this game, you know, 45-24 type of thing. So that's why I look at it that way but i i don't really i've been wrong i was wrong about both those games i have no idea that's monday night by the way yeah yeah interesting well you and gabe will get a chance to preview that one more time i guess maybe or no it'll come out after we'll come out it'll be afterwards yeah so as well no no but no but next tuesday we're doing a live show oh are you yes

awesome i believe i should know better it's my podcast i believe maybe i should do a live show on tuesday to recap that and kind of talk about the playoffs um so we are i don't know what time i don't know but we will tell you guys via Twitter, at Jeff Schwartz. Thanks. That's how our live show is. So have a great weekend, everyone. Continue to hope for the best with Hamlin and the updates that we're getting. Absolutely. Throughout the day. It feels like we're on the track to a recovery.

Thank you to the doctors and medical personnel, the doctors at the hospital Cincinnati for letting us know. And yeah, take care, everyone. Have a great weekend. Talk to you guys on Tuesday. Take care, everybody.