Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 2

Episode Date: September 15, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back and looking to follow up on a strong first week of wagering on the NFL. The boys started the season 4-1, but this week's spreads will be much tougher to decipher. Tune in to learn how Geoff factors in what we learned from Week 1, while being careful not to overreact to a small sample size. Plus, Matt suffered the worst fantasy football beat of his life on Monday night. If you think you can beat it, tweet at the boys (@geoffschwartz and @mmford10) with your stories. We appreciate the increase in ratings and comments we've gotten lately, so keep them coming! And be sure to follow the pod so you can get notified when new episodes drop twice a week.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday september 15th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this jeff schwartz a smart new power by the varsity podcast network we are through one week of the nfl season we are on to week two this is our wagering podcast that we do every single week matt four and one last week four and one we had a late lions cover and a late carolina loss. So 4-1 feels about what we deserved for last week. A good week one as we always have. Week one every year, we're good. Now week two, three, four, five, and six, we cannot overreact. Stick to our guns and hopefully we come out on top again. How was your first weekend of NFL football? It was great. It was so nice to be back Sunday. I felt like I was so happy on Sunday, which is a work day for both of us, right?

Like we're all day. It's just like the texts and the whatever, like there's so much happening. And then I'm just sitting there and I'm like, wait a second, like I can watch the Titans play the Giants. Like what kind of amazing world is this? Like I was excited for even the shitty games and it didn't,

it didn't hurt that the commanders won. It didn't hurt that I advanced out of survivor where everyone got mowed down by a bunch of things that seemed kind of obvious to me, but you know, this, this week I'm sure will be harder. But yeah, it was a great week. I did have the worst fantasy football beat of all time that I want to save to the end of the show, but I have to tell you about it. It was absolutely outrageous. Were you ready for my Sunday text messages?

We were fast and furious. So every Sunday being my texts with Jeff are like, they're sacred. Like I feel like I just, I care about them so much because our bets are in them. I'm talking to an NFL player on Sundays. It's still cool for me, even though we're friends at this point. It is still cool for me.

I forgot how up and down you are. It'll be the first play of the game, and you'll be like, our bet's dead. We're 0-5. The Eagles scored, and you were like, the Lions are toast. I was like, dude, come on. It's the first quarter. They went down three touchdowns before they came back. Were you were like, the Lions are toast. And I was like, dude, come on. Like it's the first quarter. They went down like three touchdowns before they came back.

Were you like that on the sidelines? Like I'm here like, oh, it's fine. Like I've watched enough football. Like it's fine. Like were you like that as a player? No, no. And I really know that, you know, these go in waves. So I'm just texting you.

But this week though, it was less of that this week and more of our Texansans over and over and over again that was our favorite play obviously that was so that was so easy to to to pick and so hopefully we have some winners for you this week first please if you like this show give us a five-star rating we've seen more of these lately we really appreciate them if you're listening you obviously have some interest in what we have to say. So please go give us that like. You can leave a review as well. All right, let's get to the Week 2 matchups. And for those who don't know or are new, we will go through every game.

We'll talk about most often the sides, so just the spread between the two teams. We'll touch a total we might like here and there. I really liked everything I told you guys last week. I love the Browns, excuse to me the bears 49ers under i liked it before it went to 37 um and that game ended up with 29 points in the rain i got it at 41 so we'll uh we'll give you some props when we feel it's early in the week for props though on wednesday as we record this uh so let's get to the first game of the week, which is the best game of the week. Yeah, the Chargers at the Chiefs. The line we're seeing now is four for Kansas City.

I assume that it was a three and a half, but I think the Keenan Allen situation and the JC Jackson situation moved that one up a little bit. I can't imagine we're picking this, but I'm curious what your take on the game is. Yeah, we're not picking this. This number has gone up. It's even some four and a halves now. I can't imagine Keenan Allen is that yeah we're not picking this this this number has gone up it's even some four and a halfs now um i can't imagine keena allen is that big of a difference in this because he was out sunday like there was no way he was playing this game um and the chiefs are without some of their players as well they're out harrison butker their kicker's out um they're out guard

most likely yeah he's out oh boy they're out there right guard and they're out trey mcduffie the rookie cornerback who played really well in week one. And the Chargers, you mentioned Keenan Allen, probably no J.C. Jackson. And so they're both kind of in the same boat as far as they kind of have an equal amount of injuries, right? Like they're both important players out on each side. Here's the thing about this game. I think most logical people would tell you to take the dog here

with the points, right, in a high-scoring game, or sort of last score wins. But a couple of things to note. One is that Pat Mahomes is really freaking good at September. He's 12-2. He averages like 360 yards a game, 46 touchdowns in, I think, the 14 games he's played in this month. He just starts really fast.

And the Chargers always leave me wanting a little bit more. If you watch a game on Sunday, Matt, you're like, this should be 35-17. Like they kicked the Raiders ass, but the Raiders had the ball driving to win the game at the end. I feel like that's all Charger games. However, Justin Herbert has played well against the Chiefs. The one talking point that we're going to hear all week, guys, he's beat the Chiefs twice. One of the times is week 17. The Chiefs weren't playing their starters. So throw that one out, guys, okay? Throw that one out. He didn't win that game when they were playing their starters. He's played well against the Chiefs.

And Pat Mahomes, conversely, plays his quote-unquote worst against the Chargers. So, and the worst, again, is like he goes from completing 68% of his passes to 64% of his passes, right? It's not like that big of a drop-off. But there's a noticeable difference in him playing the Chargers versus everyone else. So that's why I lean to the Chargers here, but I just think the Chiefs, if they get on kind of this juggernaut role in this game,

the Chargers are not keeping up. I think that's totally fair. I would pick the Chiefs to win this game, but the 4-4.5 just doesn't, I don't have a strong enough conviction either way. It worries me. So when the line moves like this, guys, it can be an influx of public money.

It totally can. It can be everyone's betting one side. Especially now. So we need to make it up. But also, it's most times sharps, right? Someone's coming to the book and putting down a five-figure wager. If someone who does this for a living is betting on the Chiefs right now,

it kind of gets me worried to go the other direction, right? Like, we often look for these sort of tells in the sharp play. And there'll be some games this weekend, I think, where we might go against what the public thinks to go a little sharp here, which we did last weekend as well. This, to me, signals that in a line of major game going from three, three and a half to four to four and a half now there is sharp money on the chiefs i also think the given who they played in week one

it's really hard to draw any real conclusions like the raiders i i was a little higher on them the most but like you know they were around eight and a half wins like that's i felt like where they belonged and then the cardinalsinals just completely laid an egg. It's like, is that the Cardinals? Are they just terrible? Because if so, then that Chiefs win doesn't look quite as good. The Chiefs are always good in week one with Andy Reid off with the more time to prepare stuff. I don't know.

This is going to be a really interesting game. It's the best game of the week. It's a Thursday game. There's a lot of injuries. It's an obvious stay away from us, but I think if I had to pick it i'd take kansas city at four minus four one thing too is everyone's gonna rush to bet the over and you certainly can root for points in this game i just just don't bet a lot of overs in general it's just not the way to go but you're welcome to bet it over on thursday football in this game so yeah i i think that's that's not a bad way to spend your thursday

it's gonna be incredibly fun um the chargers, 3-0-1 against the spread in Kansas City in their last four. Very interesting. They said they played well there. Yeah. I mean, Herbert, remember his first game after that Tyrod Taylor disaster? He came in off the bench. It was like a last-minute thing, and you hit them up. He played really well.

He almost won that game. All right, let's move to Sunday. Speaking of rivalry games that tend to make no sense, the Bucs are going to New Orleans to play the Saints. The Saints are two-and-a-half-point underdogs. Fascinating game. I'm excited to talk about this one. Yeah, the Saints obviously came back against the Falcons,

but to me they're the same team I kind of thought they would be, which is just like kind of meh for the most part. I mean, they were down 26-10 against the Falcons and came back and won that game on a late kick. Jarvis Landy looked pretty good. Jameis Winston had times he looked good. The defense was not as good as it was last season. But Tampa Bay also had their issues, right?

They just didn't look crisp on offense. They had red zone issues, which I think the red zone is it's where your offensive line shines, and their offensive line is beat up right now. They don't have Gronkowski, so the red zone is it's where your offensive line shines and their offensive lines beat up right now. They don't have Gronkowski. So the red zone offense wasn't as good. I still would lean Tampa here to cover this, but they're a public road favorite, Matt. I mean, there's reverse line moving on the Saints, but two and a half, three, I'd be

more into it, but two and a half, probably not. I actually wonder if the player isn't the Saints. They're 4-0 against Tom Brady as a buck. The Bucs are down Chris Godwin. They're down Donovan Smith. The way that the Saints have always beaten Tampa is with that pressure up front. Brady's just always struggled with them. You always want to look at I mean this is

something I feel like we have to relearn every year the Bucs are coming off of a blowout win against a marquee team on primetime right like they're going to be a little bit overvalued and they're the Bucs meanwhile the Saints had this weirdo game against the Falcons who stink but they're home for the second straight week they traditionally are very good against this team i kind of feel like this is one where i was like oh well the play is probably the bucks like how long is this trend gonna last like maybe this is one where we just don't overthink it and we're just like hey the saints like this is the game the saints always win you're getting them as home dogs and the same are the bucks really that good after last week like i'm not sure that

they are i i just i'm not sure the saints are any good either and i think the hard part about the saints and these trends is they have a whole new coaching staff a new quarterback so the trends are great and all but are you giving dennis allen the same trend as sean payton over the last that to me feels like a big difference in the discussions. You just have a different team, and I just don't think that matters as much as maybe if Drew Brees was still there with Sean Payne. I feel differently about that trend. Didn't Jameis beat them last year? I feel like he did.

Was he – I mean, it was Jameis, and then I think maybe it was Simeon who beat them the second time. That's incredible. Yeah, I mean, they just own this Bucs team. It doesn't matter who the quarterback is it's very strange you like them even at two and a half

not three plus two and a half yeah I feel like yeah plus two and a half yeah you think they're gonna win I think it's I think it's worth

putting into contention if we don't have five that we love because I do this is don't you like it's just one of those things that it's like

wait this happens every year everyone's off of it I mean it's a smart play I just don't want to root for jamis winston yeah basically they won they beat they beat tampa bay nine nothing last year it's insane and jamis is a as the starter in new orleans six and two straight up pretty strange beat him they beat with Taysom Hill last year and beat them 9-0. They shut out the Bucs. Like, that's insane.

I mean, I just think Tampa, you're right. Like, Tampa dominated, but I feel like it was mostly the Cowboys just not showing up and their defense just flat out dominated. It was Trevor Simmon who beat them last year. Yeah. Interesting. Yeah. I'll put them in the maybes. I think. Yeah. It's like – Interesting. Yeah. I'll put him in the maybes. I think it belongs.

It belongs in the first pass. All right. Let's move to another stink bomb. The Panthers are going to your New York Giants. The line right now is Giants minus two. They're America's favorite team right now. I bet we're on the same side here. Yeah, I think you have to take care of line here, right? Absolutely.

They didn't look great in the first half of the game against the Browns. They played much better in the second half. And the Giants, the Giants, anything about the sport, right? So a lot of what we say is based off of our preseason projections. And me and you both are down the Giants. And for three and a half quarters, they looked pretty bad. And they got better at the end. But also, we were down the Titans too.

And so them being the Titans is not surprising to me. And we're higher on the Panthers. So maybe we're still a little biased right now. But yeah, Carolina here would be the pick 100%. I just think, again, in totality, they're the better team right now. Even though the Giants won week one, they lost week one. So I would definitely go Carolina here to right now, even though the Giants won week one and they lost week one.

So I would definitely go Carolina here to not overreact to the Giants. Two trends here that make a lot of sense. Remember, Daniel Jones sucks at home. This is like the thing that we've been saying about him from day one. At home, his career record against the spread, 6-13 at home against the spread in his career abjectly terrible that's number one number two this is a great one from our buddy evan abrams at action network um it's a little bit complicated but week two underdogs who lost

straight up as a favorite in week one are 62% against the spread. So last week, the Panthers were favored against the Browns. It's an overreaction. And now everyone's like, oh, the Giants. Like, the Giants beat Tennessee in Tennessee. The Giants should have lost that game 100 different times. They ended up winning. Props to them. We still think that they're going to be terrible this year.

The Giants think they're going to be terrible this year, just based on the way they've constructed their roster, right? And just all their dead cap and everything else. And they came out before the season and were like, don't hold against us if we stink. Yeah, exactly. Like they don't expect, I don't think that they would have expected to win this.

And they're worse at home. And meanwhile, Carolina, like Cleveland played a great game. Credit to them. Baker Mayfield slept through a half and then woke up in the second half like they didn't if you just caught the second half of that game you're like hey they're kind of good like i just think this is an absolute hammer for the panthers i'm agreed with you 100 so panthers panthers in panthers are in two bets on the panthers two shows oh boy um in the jeff schwartz

ball the panthers and the giantsants. I omitted them. Oh, yeah. Very good. Let's see. All right. The next game, another New York team. They're going. The Jets going to the Browns.

The Browns, six-point favorites. God, what a gross game. Yikes. I mean, I'm not touching this game. So, Browns come back and win in week one. Jacoby Brissett just basically looked okay, right? The offense has run through the running backs through touching this game. So Browns come back and win in week one. Jacoby Brissett just basically looked okay, right? The offense has run through the running backs through the screen game. Defensively, they played really well.

Miles Gear had a great game. They gave a couple explosive plays, obviously. Deep passes to Baker Mayfield. The Jets looked awful, but I will tell you what, their defense had a little life, man. Their defense played well for a while until their offense couldn't keep up anymore. So I would lean to Jets put six here, but I'm not.

We're not doing this. We're never betting on Joe Flacco. Hey, do you know how many attempts Joe Flacco had last week? Yeah, 58 or something crazy like that, right? 59. He threw the ball 59 times. Oh, yeah. He threw for 300 yards.

I mean, not very efficient at that many attempts but what a strange outcome i mean granted they were down the whole game but like they drafted a running back in the first round right like yeah he was a first round right it's like what are we doing it's he didn't he wasn't even the guy michael carter was it was it was wild dude i was shocked i was shocked when i heard that. It's so strange. Yeah, I'm just absolutely out on this one. Fascinating game after week one. The Patriots are going to Pittsburgh. The Patriots are now up to one and a half point road favorites.

I feel like this is completely a reflection of that TJ Watt injury, which hopefully isn't as bad as we all feared initially. It seems like he might just miss a few weeks. I mean, you know where I'm going to go here. I know you're going with Tomlin. I kind of like the Patriots. Oh, come on. Why? Well, dude, I watched the whole Bengals game.

The Steelers needed five turnovers to almost lose the game, right? Like, they need every single turnover to keep us getting closer. Their defense, I mean, their offense is so bad, Matt. Their offense is so fucking bad. You're going to, I'm telling you, you're going to put money on Tomlin this weekend. With the defense, I mean, their offense is so bad, Matt. Their offense is so fucking bad. You're going to, I'm telling you, you're going to put money on Tomlin this weekend with the trends. I get it. Great as a home underdog. All those things are great. They're not going to move the ball this weekend. If they can't

force five turnovers, they're not going to win this game. Okay. Joe Burrow had 340 yards passing. It wasn't that the Bales didn't move the ball. In five quarters. Yeah, but you're not going to get In five quarters. They kept turning the... Yeah, but

you're not going to get that this week. They're going to get five turnovers this week. Again, they need all of that and Evan McPherson needed to make a fucking extra point to win this game. Like, that's all... Yeah, for them to have lost by one.

Yeah, it's like, I don't think that the conversation here... They would have been the first team in NFL history, I think, I'm sure I'm going to find. They would have been the first team in NFL history, I think, I'm sure I'm going to find this, to be plus five in a game and lose in turnover margin. I can't imagine this ever happened before.

They didn't, I mean, look, the fact is they won that game. Here are some other facts. I'm just going to give you some stone cold fucking facts, Jeff. Mike Tomlin. Seven straight covers as a home underdog. 14-3 and 2 against the spread as a home dog at home. That's 80 plus percent. Best in NFL history.

This is the spot where you bet Mike Tomlin. The other thing. You have to bet him, but he doesn't have his best player on his team in this game. Okay, so let's talk about the Patriots. You want to about the patriots you want to talk you want to say to me you want to look in my eyes over this goddamn client video thing that never works you're gonna look in my eyes jeff and you're gonna tell me that you like mac jones with a back

injury as a road favorite going to pittsburgh that's what you're telling me right now yeah i don't well i don't i don't like pittsburgh in this matchup so if i have to like one or the other i like the patriots. Oh my god. You like Mac Jones as a road fan. I just really want you to say those words to me, that you like Mac Jones and Jacoby Brissett to light up the Bengals, or the Steelers on offense. They don't need to light them up, they need to beat them

by two. This game could be like 11 to 9. I mean, it's going to be the most ridiculous game of all time. No one's going to score. The under in this game is the way I play this game, if anything else. But, dude, I understand the trend part of this, right? For Tomlin. But you just lost your best defensive player and

when he went out of the game the other day, right? The defensive line didn't touch Joe Burrow. Like, they're not going to touch Mac Jones. And if you don't touch the quarterback, you allow him opportunities to find guys that are open. And so I just don't.

Find Jacoby Myers. Yeah, I'm real scared. It's not Jamar Chase out there. But I'm also not betting on Trubisky, who could barely move that offense last weekend. It's not going to happen. We're not going to get a consensus here, but I am shocked that we're not taking a chance to fade Mac Jones as a road favorite. Also,

road favorites that were week one underdogs in week two, the road favorites, 4-14-1 against the spreads since 05. That's another one, thanks to our buddy Evan. It's just not a good spot. I can't just bait this game solely on trends, dude. I just can't do it because there's so many other things that are going against the Steelers here. Fair enough,

but I, man, Mac Jones on the road. God bless you, Jeff. I am way out on that one. So that's just a pass. I mean, that's who I would, I'm saying you asked me who I would wager on. It'd be New England. Well, I don't feel great about it. Nor do I.

That's going to be a hard pass from the Ford Schwartz boys. Maybe we'll find a consensus on this one i have a feeling we might uh miami is going to baltimore baltimore a three and a half point road favorite perhaps lamar auditioning for his future team the miami dolphins we'll see um if tom brady's not there first what uh what do you think here so we saw baltimore start kind of slow last weekend before they kind of picked it up in the second half.

A lot of this, and we'll see throughout the week two, is a lot of teams that didn't play their starters in the preseason I think looked really sluggish in their openers. And I'm just, you know, I didn't watch much of the Dolphins offense at least, but the reports back from everyone who did is like, yeah, two was like okay when he's allowed to do things in the offense. But like, yeah, he's kind of what we thought he'd be in this offense. He'd be Jimmy Garoppolo.

People are saying the best case scenario is he's Jimmy Garoppolo in this offense. Really? Yeah. The Dolphins' defense is good, I think. But the hook is terrifying. I actually would rather prefer four than just for three and a half, but I would go Baltimore here in a heartbeat, buddy.

Yeah, I would too. Let's talk about trends. I know we're throwing them out, but Miami's only one covered one of their last 10 against Baltimore. John or coach John Arbaugh. Yes. 28,

19, one against the spread in September. He's awesome then. I think Miami, we're coming off a game where a couple of things. Number one, I think New England's terrible. We don't have to relitigate that conversation. Number two, it was just a great spot for them. Like, they always beat the Patriots in Miami.

The Patriots are worse this year. And I think no one is really giving the Ravens credit for beating Joe Flacco they shouldn't but that game was kind of out of hand and then Ravens kind of just fell asleep and then the Jets sort of weirdly made it kind of interesting um back at home where the Ravens are always awesome yeah I just feel like this is a spot where everyone's overreacting and being like Miami's kind of good and the fact that the line is actually this low I think is a little bit of a is a little bit of a flag from Vegas. You and I are hot on the Ravens.

We've been in on that all season. I think if we had seen this line a week ago, we would have been like, yeah, three and a half. We hate the hook, but we like this matchup. I would lay it. It's not my favorite because of the hook, but I do think this belongs in the conversation. One of the concerns, I think do think this belongs in the conversation. One of the concerns,

I think, too, for Baltimore's injuries is they just continue to pile up, man, and tackles and corners and whatnot. Always. I'd love to take Baltimore here. You know how I feel about their ability to move the ball and cross the ball. All right, let's get to it. We have Ravens in the firmly maybe category.

So far, we just have 1-1, which is Carolina plus 2. That's happening. Yeah, that's happening. All right, next up. Yeah, J.K. Dobbins practiced today as we're recording this Wednesday, so that'd be huge for them. Not enough to rely on. Yeah, I saw something that he really wants to play.

Yeah, he hasn't played, he said, in front of the Baltimore crowd in two years because he missed last year and the COVID year. It's like he was really fired up, so I'm sure he'll try to get out there. AFC South matchup, the division of greatness. The Colts are going to Jacksonville. The Jags are four-point home dogs. Worth pointing out here, the Colts stink in week one but are really good in week two under Frank Reich, like really good.

The 4-0 covering the spread in the four games. Also worth pointing out before your analysis here, Jacksonville, I'm sorry, Indy hasn't won in Jacksonville since 2014. This is just like one of those weird things that happens. That's when Trevor Lawrence was a freshman in high school, the last time that the Colts won in Jacksonville. Pretty strange.

I was a little disappointed in the Jaguars in week one. I felt great about it personally. I know you did. So that should not, again, week one shouldn't change that much. We made this mistake in the past, right? Week one changing a lot of our opinion for week two. I think if you had told me before the season,

I would have taken Jacksonville plus four here in a heartbeat. But I really am concerned. The Colts are better all over the field than Jacksonville. And again, this is the trend they've been on, right, where they lose week one and play really well in week two. I could totally see this being a big win for Indy. But, you know, Jacksonville plus four is kind of what we do all the time

in this spot. But I don't feel great about it. I feel less good about it than I have in the past taking a divisional home dog. Yeah, for some reason I don't feel great about it either. Despite the fact that Jacksonville always wins this game, they always cover this game when it's early in the season, seven and two in the last nine against India in the first four weeks of the season.

That includes games against Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. It's like this is a real thing at this point. Oh, yeah. I don't know. I mean, I can't tell. I think that Indy looked to me, I mean, they were just awful for a half, and then they woke up, but it was too late at that point. But they're just like, they always stink in week one,

like we noted already. But it just didn't seem like they had, the receiver depth thing is a real concern. Like Matt Ryan just like was not dynamic at all. And Jacksonville, like Jacksonville should have won that game, right? Like they had some drops. Etienne looked like he had never played an NFL game before, which he hadn't. Like there were just a lot of little subtle things that stopped them from winning that game. Trevor Lawrence looked pretty good, I thought.

The offensive line held up pretty well. I think Jacksonville's the play here, but there's something about it that just doesn't feel right. I'm with you. It's the right play because this is what we normally do. But I think we both feel like the Colts can come in there and kick their ass, right? That's the way we're off of this. But look, we were high on Jacksonville heading into the season. So again, we shouldn't let week one change our mind about this, right?

So I'm going to put in the maybes for now. We'll see as we go. Because I'm very curious about the next game here. Commanders Falcons. Jimmy, Commanders Lions. Commanders Lions, yeah. Lions short home favorites. They're laying one and a half

to the Commanders. That's funny. I don't really have a feel for this one. So if you've got a lean. I have none and we don't bet on Carson Wentz on this show.

So there's that part of this as well. The Lions are going to be feisty each week, but they're just not at that point yet where they're trustworthy. And guess what? So was Carson Wentz. I mean, how do you trust Carson Wentz?

He threw a terrible fourth-corner reception, came back and threw a great pass afterwards. I just would just stay the hell away from this game. I just, nothing about this game I feel good about. There's no edge in the line, in my opinion. You're basically choosing a winner at this time. If I were to choose a winner, I probably would choose Washington.

But I don't feel great about it would be low on my list of of um confidence picks i agree i think this is i would i don't know what the total is in this and i'm just making this up but it does feel like an over it's 49 it's high yeah it is high but i think that uh i mean last week what did the lions give up? I wrote this down. They gave up almost 500 yards to the Eagles offense. 38 points, yeah. Yeah, 455 yards. Another trend, teams that scored over 30 points in week one and won fewer than five games the year before are 20% against the spread in week two, so the Commanders are the favorite of the trends here.

But I'm with you. This is a small line. The strength of the Lions offense is their offensive line. That will negate the remainder of Washington's defensive line. And that secondary is pretty thin. So I think this could be a lot of points. And it'll just be a strange game that'll be super entertaining to watch um it'll be one of those games where like 15 minutes are left you're like what is happening it just goes to red zone channel it's just so

funky yeah there's gonna be lots of mix and just weirdness um i look forward to enjoying it that might get a that might get a laptop that you know with the side i might do the laptop on the side it's just gonna be pure entertainment nice okay all right jeff approves of the laptop all right um moving on to the late games man these are this is where it gets real fucking interesting jeff we got the seahawks at the niners oh wait i skipped one let's just do that no no we did that one let's do it seahawks at the niners nine and a half this. This is 100% the 49ers. Like, there's no question about it. Matt, Matt, listen to me.

Listen to me. Just listen to me. Listen to me. I'm listening. Okay. I'm just covering my eyes, so I don't have to be ashamed of you. Because you know I'm right, first of all. Okay.

The Niners obviously play in that downpour. Never going to play in that game ever again. All right? And it's not going to play in the rain like that ever again. It's not going to happen. ever again, all right? And it's not going to play in the rain like that ever again. It's not going to happen.

But more than anything else, we have praised the Seahawks for their win on Monday night. They threw for 33 yards in the second half. They scored zero second-half points. They allowed nearly seven yards of play on defense. They forced two fumbles at the goal line. Otherwise, they they lose that game like they didn't play very well they played terribly and they're going on the road now after everyone's hyping them up gassing them up feeling good about what's happening there

Gino Smith is the next coming he graded higher than Pat Mahomes according to pro football focus they didn't move the ball in the second half at all the Niners coming off their worst game they ever played terrible I do not trust Trey Lance I get that but they are in like win now mode man it's like I think Niners I know it's nine and a half it was eight I bet it personally at eight it got all the way down to eight it started like 10 down to eight I was like this is ridiculous nine and a half is not great Matt but dude this is the thing we've done in the past or excuse me we haven't thing we've done in the past or we haven't done the past right in the past we'd be like seahawks seahawks seahawks i i just don't see the seahawks being competitive in this game they weren't competitive against

denver i hate this game and i hate that you love it because remember seattle does not have to win. The 49ers have to put up more than nine points. Are we sure that they're capable of that? I know that it was a downpour, but if anything, it's my buddy who I do a picks pool with. He texted me right before the game. He's like, you see this weather in Chicago? We got to take Chicago plus seven. And I was like, why?

This is the perfect kind of weather for San Francisco. They have 100 running backs. They have a running quarterback. They don't ever throw. They have a great offensive line. Who cares if the Kittle's out? Your fucking tight end is out. Grow up.

Why didn't that benefit them? I just think San Francisco, remember, without Jimmy Garoppolo, Shanahan, 8-28. He sucks. Shanahan is a favorite, wins 36 percent of the time against the spread like this is this is a total trap like i'm with you seattle we're overreacting we're saying that they're good they're not this line doesn't insinuate that they're good this line insinuates that the niners are awesome and i just we haven't seen it trey lance just has not been good the niners average nearly five yards of play against the Bears, right?

They rushed for nearly five yards of rush. They were over 50% on third down, or right at 50% on third down. They had 12 penalties, though, and they turned the ball over twice. One of those was a big fumble in the red zone, I believe, by Debo, right? So, like, they played much better. The Bears had only 204 yards that game. Again, I think that, dude, Seattle just didn't play as well as we give them credit for against Denver, man.

It just wasn't – it, like, was not – But what evidence – The first half was great and all. What evidence do we have that San Francisco is good? I'm serious. No, we don't have any. We're on this quarterback who we don't know. Eli Mitchell's out.

I'm just fading the story of the Seahawks. I just think that – I mean, would you be surprised if you looked up and said it was 30-10 for the Niners? No. Would you be surprised if it was 10-3? I just don't – I would rather bet on Carson Wentz than trey lance we've at least seen what he can do like i just this guy like is a total unknown quantity and to lay 10 points with

them at this point in the season and at this point in his career just seems insane to me like i i would love this in like a survivor pool i'd love this in the teas i think that's why they have it at that number so you can tease it down to you know maybe two and a half or three and a tease. I think that's why they have it at that number so you can tease it down to maybe 2.5 or 3.5. I just don't trust this team at all. I get it. It wouldn't shock me if next week you're like, Matt, why are we being such a baby about the Niners? Why didn't you take them? We could have had them. By the way, this again, I know I'm talking a lot of trends today, but it's week two. We don't have a lot to go off of. Seattle and San Francisco, this division,

they go back and forth all the time, right? Like there's these weird little trends. Seattle's won 15 of the last 17 against San Francisco. Like Pete Carroll knows how to win these games. I don't know what it is. So it also wouldn't shock me if Seattle just won this game. And then next week it's like, Seattle's a favorite against whoever they're playing and we bet the hell out

of the other side. But this one just feels spooky to me. Like, I don't want to touch this one. We can stay away, but I'm going to tell you, when we record this on Wednesday, when we run back what you just said about, you know, when they win by 20. Fine.

Seattle's going to get their asses kicked. I mean, look, your name's on the show. The title of the show implies that you know more about this than I do, which you do. But if you like this one. We'll see how it goes. I put it in the other category. So we'll see if there's other games we like.

I either just killed us or saved us. We'll see. We are moving on to, where did I go here? Atlanta and Los Angeles. Atlanta, LA. God, another gross line. 10 and a half at home for the rams coming off the extra rest yeah we don't bet on falcons games on this podcast um but i i really do believe

that we're gonna see a big bounce back week for a lot of the teams that struggled in week one that kind of didn't play their stars in the preseason including the the Rams. And, I mean, this game could totally be 41-17, Matt, right? Like, you see that happening too. But we have to stay strong with our rule about not betting on Falcons games. The Falcons are up 26-10 and lost that game at home. I mean, they are the Falcons as Falcons can be. So, I'm not doing the 10.5, I guess. I mean, I guess you could talk me into it, but I don't feel great about it,

but that's the way. I would not bet the Falcons here. No chance. No chance. Yeah, no chance. I don't think that we need a 10.5 point favorite in our picks this week. No.

It just feels like a little bit of a stay away until we know a little bit more about the Rams. Yeah, I'm good with that. Boy, the scenes are getting kind of lean here. These huge lines. I feel like there's something. Vegas is telling us something. We're going to have to take one of them, and I think it's going to be this one right here. Cincy is at Dallas.

Cincy is 7.5 point favorite on the road. This line's moved 9 points since Dak's injury. Probably rightfully. I think the Bengals are going to on the road. This line's moved, jeez, this line's moved nine points since Dak's injury. Probably rightfully. I think the Bengals are going to kick

the Cowboys' ass. You look at, let's just take Dak out of this for a second, right? The Cowboys looked like shit the other day. They looked terrible,

right? They're down to their third string left guard, their rookie left tackle who played okay in the run game, and the passing was going to be a problem against Trey Hendrickson.

They rushed the passer pretty well. Micah Parsons is really good, obviously. But the back end of that secondary still worries me. The Bengals turned the ball over five times. I do not expect that to happen much longer this season. And again, Joe Burrow still played well. The Cowboys, how are they going to move the ball in this game?

The Bengals are going to score 21 points, right? I think we feel comfortable. Are the Cowboys going to score 10? I don't know. I don't think so. I don't know what – forget who they're playing. I'm not sure what Dallas' path for a win is right now. Like, CeeDee Lamb, everyone loved him this year coming in everybody

loves his over props like he's gonna get us so much volume but like they don't there's no one else to defend on that team like everyone you know everyone's so hot about pollard and elliot like elliot's not elliot anymore and pollard's whatever he's fine it's like we're gonna go to the moon over jd mckissick like That's what Tony Pollard is. Everyone relax. Look, they have Micah Parsons, who was maybe the best player I saw on Sunday, but they don't have any other real confusion in that defense. They don't have a super creative coaching staff. It's a backup quarterback.

Since he's got to win this game now, it's a bad number. It's going to keep moving. I bet by the time the contest comes out, it's at 7.5 or 8. It might even go off at 9 on Sunday. Yeah, it's crazy to say that. I'm good with taking one of these this week where you just take the one you think is going to blow.

If we're looking at one big line this league, I'd rather take this one than I guess the Niners over the Seahaw blow. Like, if we're looking at, like, one big line this league, I'd rather take this one than, I guess, the Niners over the Seahawks. Yeah, I guess. Home field advantage to me is not a thing in the NFL much anymore. Like, there's no – Especially Dallas. There's nothing to this idea that, like, this is a home field game and you have to –

It's just they – This game would be nine points neutral site. Like, it's not – The whole – This spread has nothing to do with playing on the road in my opinion yeah like they just think they're that much better without Dak Prescott in there I mean this is a really I would have loved them at two and a half oh my god I would have taken them in a heartbeat yeah I would have I this is like one of those things that we just like should not bet just based on the principle. But like, it's hard to imagine that this is close.

And like Dallas fans, they were home last week. They, those fans, like that, that wasn't a home field advantage at all. Like it was dead in there and they were throwing shit at Prescott. It's like,

I don't, I don't think that this is a, that's much of an advantage. Are the games we've written down, the games are going to have still coming up, but this might not make it. So I'll put in the maybes for now. Yeah.

I think when we look at it and we're like, should we take the two point dog or the eight point road favorite? It's probably going to go that way, but I am glad we're advancing it. Okay. Houston at Denver in a weird game. This is the line we're getting is 10. I, before the game, I had already played the, uh, I, the, before the Monday night had already played the uh i the before the monday night game i already bet on the seahawks plus six um and then i told my buddy like hey we need to

hammer houston right now before kickoff and we're gonna get such a good line because this is gonna be a close game and then everyone's gonna get scared of the broncos and we got it at 10 and a half it moved half a point which is to say like, no one is worried about Denver and no one is giving Houston credit for tying. Um, I'm really, it really worries me by the way that no one moved. Yeah.

I didn't move at all. Yeah. Cause we saw reactions again. Like I mentioned, the Seahawks Niners game went down two points and went pop back up. This is not moved at all. And again, you have to look,

I think past the result if the broncos don't fumble the ball twice inside the five they win this game what 30 to 17 or they it's also i mean remember they they fumbled i think on two fourth downs at least one fourth down well it was fourth and goal yeah it was the giovante one was fourth and goal. Yeah, it was the Javante one was fourth and goal. And like, and it was at the one yard line. There was some absolutely horrific. It's been discussed to death. But just the coaching by this Hackett guy, we talked about them as a possible fade in week one because of the experience of the whole coaching staff. And it came true.

Like, there is something to be said for, you know, they could have kicked three different field goals and that game would have been totally different. They left so many points on the board. Like Houston's not a great team, but I just didn't see, I mean, I agree that Seattle is not good at all. Like no argument there, but I just, I don't know, man. Like Denver didn't look amazing. Like they dumped the ball off a million times to Devontae Williams. Russ didn't, like, look incredible. Their defense was fine. I don't know. I'm fine with it.

I don't think they're great, but I really don't think Denver, I mean, Houston in this spot, is going to play well. Yeah. This one, I will say, is getting 87% of the money on the Texans. Yeah. Like, I can't do that, man. I just can't do it. It's a huge split.

It's the biggest. Well, most of the bets are on the Texans, too. This is a really lightly bet game, according to Action Network here. But I don't mind Houston, if only because I'm not a believer in Denver. I'm not either. And plus 10 is like...

I don't think they're a bad team, Houston. I don't think they're getting any team, Houston. I don't think they're getting any credit for I guess this tie. This is just like an ugly game. And it should be a get-right game for Denver, but I don't see them blowing anybody out. Yeah, but Houston, I mean, dude,

can't you see this game just being like 30-3 and we're just like, well, why the fuck do we bet on Houston? Because we love Houston. There are Texans at home. They are. I feel like on the road, it's different in this spot.

I would stay away. We can put them in the maybes for now, but I would stay away. I think we have to include them in the maybes just by virtue of how tragic Denver is. Like, let's see a rookie coach respond to a week of getting crapped on in the media.

Oh, I'm with you there. I'm to back down. Like, Oh yeah, I'm Oh, I'm with you there. You already have to back down. Oh, yeah. I'm with you there. I don't know. I don't know about this Denver team. This is a really shaky week.

I feel like there's nothing I have a ton of conviction on of anything that we've talked about here. I have one at the very end, I think, of the week. But we'll see if you feel the same way. Let's talk Cardinals Raiders. The Raiders are six-point favorites at home. I don't know what to do here, so if you've got a lean, go for it. But I feel like with Arizona, I just don't know if they're as bad as they looked.

If you're asking me to make a pick, I would take the points, but not with any conviction. I just think that Arizona looked bad against Kansas. They looked kind of disinterested. They didn't look like they were in rhythm. They put together a weird game plan defensively. And while the Raiders have their issues against the Chargers, they just look more competent.

But six points is a lot to lay on the Raiders. So I would grab the points here for Arizona, but this is not a game that I feel comfortable with. I hate this number that we're getting here. This is all over the place. Five, five and a half. Let's open it two and a half, and it's gotten bet up a ton, which means that it's a huge overreaction to how bad Arizona was. I think

I would be open to Arizona here. No, I'm not. I'm not even going to talk myself into it. I'm just not doing it. Because I do like the Raiders generally and I just don't know what to make of either of these teams. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Weirdly, the Cardinals are very good on the road. 17-6-3 against the spread in their last 26 as road underdog. Nice stat, Hank. Let's move to the Sunday night game and the two Monday night games this week, which has happened a lot this year. That's pretty awesome. The Sunday night game,

Aaron Rodgers redemption Redemption Tour, hosting the Bears, laying nine and a half. Is this the one you like? I mean, yeah, we take the Packers, but I feel like you're not going to want me to do that. I actually am open to

it if we get nine and a half. They're going to kick their ass. Guys, the thing about week one is you have to, like, the Bears didn't play particularly well at 200 yards on offense. Like, they weren't that good. The Packers had issues.

I get that. And their offensive line is a concern. On Wednesday, it appears their offensive linemen are practicing this week. Lazard, I think, is going to play. But how different is that game this weekend if Watson catches that touchdown pass on the first drive? The entire Packers game is different. Wide open, kid dropped the ball.

I think the Packers just smoke them in this game, man. I really do. Yeah, this is their Rodgers get-right spot. I'm fine with taking this. It is last year. You remember it was last year too. Yeah, exactly. I mean, let's see.

Rodgers, I mean, this is the team that he's best against. He's amazing as a home favorite. He's amazing as a division home favorite. He's amazing as a home primetime favorite. He's amazing after a loss. LaFleur 9-0 against the spread after a loss uh in his tenure with green bay i this is an ugly number but actually the fact that we're getting under 10 is is really good um yes and uh yeah the bears they're just not gonna have a good time against green bay yeah i'm i'm into it it makes me a little nauseous to lay nine and a

half but i think yeah i do it. Yeah, agreed. But I'm okay with it. All right. All right, next up, two minor football games. Let's do it. Okay, the first one is a great AFC game. Excuse me. The Titans are at the Bills.

This one's 8-15, no, 7-15 Eastern on Monday. The Bills are laying 10. Everyone's super well picked the Bills. Are you interested in Tennessee at all? all oh no not at all um you know the bills do this thing where they like they either like win big or don't win at all type of thing um yeah and so if you think they're going to win i think the play would be buffalo here um where you look them and, again, like I've mentioned, they seem to just, when they play well, they just beat the crud out of you. So if you look at last year, right, they beat the Dolphins by 35,

beat Washington by 22, and a 40-point win, 28-point win, And a 40-point win, 28-point win, won by 15, 28, 25. You kind of catch my drift, right? 17, 12, 14, and 17. And in the playoff game, they won by 30. So if they're going to win, they're going to win by a lot, Matt. And if we're playing this game, I think you play Buffalo. But I just, I don't, out of all the big numbers, I kind of would like the Packers at home because they're playing the Bears

and Buffalo's playing Tennessee, who does have a pulse. Yeah. And this is the kind of spot where we've just gotten killed by Tennessee over the years. This is always where you write off Tennessee and then they're like, oh, we're just going to give the ball to Derrick Henry 700 times and keep this thing close. The Titans did beat the Bills last year. This is coming off of a massive primetime win

and a team that everyone's written off. Everything here screams take Tennessee with 10 points, like a possible playoff team. But Buffalo is so freaking good and they get that extra rest. It's a no bet for me, but if I had to, I would take Tennessee. Yeah, it's a no bet. In my personal life, I didn't bet on it. I mean, this is one, a good teaser leg, right?

Take Buffalo down to four or something or maybe do a seven-point teaser. Good teaser spot here. Yeah, I will say there's a great – let me just find this really quick. Mike Drable, when he's an underdog of more than a field goal, he's 20-8 against the spread, 19-9 straight up, which means maybe they're a sneaky money line play. This – the AFC South, luckily for the Titans, like they didn't, you know, their division,

the first place in the AFC South is Houston with Ty, with Indy. So they're not dead if they lose this one, but like they kind of do need to like show up in this one or it could get kind of ugly fast. I think too, like you said, we haven't really talked about this much on this show, but like the teams, some of these like week one slow starters with these veteran teams, it's not like Derrick Henry got a lot of work in the preseason.

They've got this rookie number one receiver. It's going to take a little time for the Titans. I don't know. I don't want to go against Buffalo with extra rest. It just doesn't seem like a smart idea, but I am intrigued by Tennessee. One more. Perhaps the second most fun game of the week here. Minnesota at

Philly. Philly laying two and a half. Boy, what do we think? I have no feel for this game. I think I would lean Minnesota here, but then we have to deal with Cousins in primetime, who's terrible. I still think Philly, man. I mean, they were up big in Detroit and couldn't hold that lead, man.

Like, the Vikings, I think, can move the ball on Philly. But again, Cousins is bad in primetime. I feel like this is one of those games I just would rather enjoy than put money on, honestly. I don't think, I don't have a feel either way.

No strong conviction. What about you? Yeah, this is a, I would lean Minnesota, but it's a giant public road dog. We talked about Cousins in prime time. He has won his last two on Monday night, which is kind of interesting. He started 0-7, and now he's 2-7.

So I think it's a pass. Oh, strong pass. I don't know. Do we have enough? I'm looking at our list here. No, I think we have enough. So Carolina plus two is in, right? For sure. Yeah, we're locking that in. Okay. What about

Ravens minus three and a half? I felt like we felt strong on that one, right? Yeah, I feel fine about that. Okay. So Ravens minus three and a half is in. Yep. Sold. Okay. So then we have Green Bay minus nine and a half. We like that one a lot too, right? Let's do that one. Yep. And then do you want to take divisional

dogs getting points at home with New Orleans and Jacksonville? What else is in contention? Cincinnati. Or Cincy. I like Cincy a lot. The Niners, which you just won't do, so that's out. And Houston plus 10.

God. Why don't we do – let's take the Saints, right? Let's take the Saints and let's take – I mean Cincinnati. If you love the Bengals, let's take them. The Saints is your favorite, right? Of the week? Yeah.

The Jags are a little suspect, and all those trends actually might work against them. It's like, are they going to just keep beating Indy in Jacksonville forever? Probably not. If you love Cincy Land, the big number,

it's antithetical to most of the things I believe in, but it should work. I'm not super scared of Cooper Rush. So we have New Orleans plus two and a half hosting the Bucs. Carolina plus two on the road against the Giants. Baltimore minus three and a half

hosting the Dolphins. Bengals on the road minus seven and a half. Terrible number. I mean, I could totally see this being like a game where just on Monday we I mean, I could totally see this being like a game where just on Monday or like, what are we doing with ourselves?

But I just think they're just, the Cowboys are a wreck. I mean, I would have bet Cincinnati plus two and obviously a much better number, but I would have

loved them at that if Dak was playing. Then Green Bay smashed the Bears. I mean, not bad. I don't feel as great as week one though. I don't either.

But I feel like we didn't make the overreactions that we've done in previous years. I know. I feel like, if anything, we underreacted. And the only thing that concerns me is the one you were hottest on was San Francisco. And I'm like, I'm flashing the signs of, hell no, we're not taking that. And that makes me nervous that I'm laying my body down on the railroad tracks here. We're in this together. It's okay.

These picks are subject to change, by the way. They are if there's injuries, obviously. And I will tweet that out. This podcast is free. Can I tell you my fantasy story now? Yes, please. Sunday night, I'm down. Let's just make these round numbers.

They're not exactly right. I'm down 20 points. Let's just make these round numbers. They're not exactly right. I'm down 20 points. I have Ezekiel Elliott, the Broncos defense, and Brandon McManus remaining as my remaining players, and he's done. So the first drive, Zeke gets like 20 yards. I'm like, hey, I'm good. All I need now is 17.5 from three quarters of Zeke and the Broncos' D.N. McManus. Zeke doesn't do shit the rest of the game. So I'm like, okay, I'm probably toast now, right? I need 16 or something. Then the game starts, and I'm like, well, I am going against Seattle's offense.

I'm kind of alive here. And McManus, he got on board kind of early. So suddenly, it's close. And then the Denver defense comes alive. They get a fumble, they get a sack, and then I mentioned Javante Williams fumbles at the one where they could have kicked a field goal. If I had gotten that field goal, I would have been up. All these things. Suddenly, with two minutes left, denver gets the ball um the denver defense does something and i'm winning by 0.6 okay i'm winning by 0.6 points

and i'm like i can't believe this is like the most insane comeback ever i was i was toast espn's got me as like a 99 favorite here and i'm running through the scenarios in my head i'm like okay so basically anything can happen the broncos defense is not going to be on the field like russell wilson he's going to run this two-minute drive perfectly like maybe mcmanus might miss a field goal but he's he's awesome and he's home so i'm watching and they're moving up the field and i'm like this is great there's a minute left they have three timeouts they're at the 50 i, and I'm like, this is great. There's a minute left. They have three timeouts. They're at the 50. I am golden.

And then the clock starts going, and I'm watching the Manning cast, and Peyton's like, got to call a timeout. And I'm like, guys, what are we doing? Timeout, timeout, like everyone else in the rest of the world. We get to 20 seconds, and I'm like, wait a second. If McManus misses this kick, I lose one point, and I lose my fantasy game by.4. And lo and behold, Jeff, that is what happened.

I lost a fantasy game because of the worst fucking coaching decision I've ever seen by less than a point. And I'm not over it. I'm not over it. It's Wednesday at 1 p.m. I can't get over it. This is my fantasy to me. I had an auto draft this year because it was too late at night.

It just doesn't really do anything for me if somebody has a worse beat than that that they've ever had please tweet me um i i need some comfort it was it was i couldn't believe how upset i was i don't get upset by these losses anymore like how many dumb bad beats we had betting against us you just have to laugh but this one i can't shake je It's killing me. It's already week two. We're on to week two, Matt. You've got to figure out your lineup for this week. Right now, it says I have a 50% chance to win my

matchup this week. Interesting. Huh. Alrighty. That's great. I dropped Brandon McManus. I said goodbye. I had Nick Chubb, and they just gave all the touchdowns to Cream Hunt in week one. All to Cream Hunt? What the fuck was that? It was like, that play action in the all the cream hunt what the fuck was that it was like that play action

in the first quarter second quarter killed me when it was like they're at the one and it's like alright it's chub time give them the touchdown

they're like nope past the fullback cream hunt I almost lost my mind we're back fantasy football agonizing

fantasy football bad beats with Matt Ford alright hope you like our picks this week I know it was kind of a wild week of lines, some over-adjustments, whatnot.

We're 4-1 in week one, so good start to the week. We'll be back next week, everyone. Please rate, review, subscribe. We'll talk to you guys on Tuesday. We're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Have a great weekend. Talk to you guys then.