Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 3

Episode Date: September 22, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back to give you. their best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season. Tune in as they. look at the spreads of every game on tap for the weekend, picking their favorite wagers, and highlighting some dangerous traps to avoid.Be sure to rate and comment if you enjoyed, and follow the pod to get notified whenever a new episode drop. Happy gambling!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's Thursday September 22nd I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford this is Jeff Schwartz of Smart on your power by the varsity podcast network it is our NFL wagering preview episode and Matt we have got to do better than we did in week two one or four last week five and five for the season a couple things Matt we I know we try to agree on all five, but the plays that we both liked that we threw out were 4-0. 49ers for me and the Patriots. You liked Houston. Whose other one you liked that we threw out? Jacksonville, but that came later in the week.

Yeah. We tried to make that change late on Sunday when we got the Jameis Winston fractured back news, and Phil, it was too late to make that change. That's not why the Saints lost that game. The Baltimore game was a bad beat for us. So two and three was maybe the best we get on the week. So we got to do better.

So we'll try to go through these this week and maybe a disagreement or two is okay. If we end up getting them right in the end, it's a weird week of football, weird week of numbers. But one more thing I want to propose to you. I've not talked with you about this yet because I want to get your opinion as we go. Let's hear. We have $600 left over of our $10,000 for the prop money, right? Okay.

Do you want to use it throughout the season? I'll give you a couple examples. One, the Giants' win total is 8.5 right now. If they beat the Cowboys this weekend, it'll go to 9.5. If they beat, I think it's the Falcons the week after it might get to like 10 and a half i'm very good with taking under money on the giants in that situation yep michael parsons is still plus money to win defensive player of the year we have money on watt for that but i mean he's plus like 350 to win defensive player of the year so maybe there's a way to make a little bit money back there um you know packers are still plus 100 to win the division still plus money like feels better than than

putting than laying money so there's some options as we go through the season i think maybe we can take the parsons money now but yeah there's options throughout the season to maybe because we've some wagers were like in the books right like the almond rock saint brown unfortunately the you know the the the trailence injury will cash that under on him. Some we're going to get screwed on, like Tyreek Hill under touchdowns, probably not going to hit that one. So as we go through this, there are some wagers that Niners under, I think we had under 10.5, I think.

That's probably not going to happen now with Jimmy Garoppolo in there. So there's some wagers we can try to get out of throughout the process of the next couple of weeks. It's an option it's pretty fun i think to do this during the season to add to our uh our props from the from the beginning of the season i absolutely love it i'm so in on the parsons thing i don't see a world where you know even if his play kind of returns to something of normal human production like that guy there's no chance that that guy is going to lose steam that it's his to lose there's there's no other obvious contender two weeks into the season so i i'm in on that one the packers one we'll get to the packers today i mean it makes sense but we're getting you know i guess this is the time everyone's really out on

the vikings yeah i let's do the Parsons one. Let's load up on that one. Okay, let's look at the Endul here. Not a sponsor. They could be. We expect cash, direct deposit, wire transfers. Any of them are fine. Venmo, just to me, that's also fine.

It'll make its way to Jeff. I've used them most often because I've done some stuff with them, again, for front recently. Okay, so I have here Micah Parsons defensive player there plus 350. We got to get out of the one. I mean, it feels like better than nothing. You want 100 bucks on this one? How about 200?

$200. So we have $4 left. I'm good with that. Yeah. I mean, that could look dumb, but that's that could write a lot of wrongs. By the way, there aren't a lot of things that I get right. The Saman Ross St. Brown thing. Nailed that one, dude.

That was the one. I think of all the props. There's always one a year where I'm like, this is the one. And the Saquon Barkley under this year might not be our annual cash it in week four. He's looked pretty good. but this Saman Ra St. Brown thing has been really fun to track and shout out to the guy who tweeted at us on Twitter to, to give us some love on that one. That was great.

That was, it was a good one. We we've, I think we're on the right path. A lot of our props, we're on the right path. I feel good about most of them. I also think Jeff,

we got it. Like last week, almost tore our family apart, Jeff. The texts – Jeff's texts to me in the middle of the games were despondent. They were – In which ones? In all of them because we came out of the gate and we felt good about – it was Baltimore. They came out super hot.

We were like, all right, well, that one's good. No, but I told you. I told you when they did not convert their second, fourth one in that game but that is not that's when it started that's when it started and from like the first snap of this of the 49ers game you're like well we should have taken the fucking 49ers like you were all you were all over me for that one which like and and for the and for the uh the the uh the patriots one too which again like i am i mean but you were also right about about houston i texted you that i was like you're absolutely right about houston so as we go through this though let's obviously try to to just like

again if we don't like one fine we don't have to like it together but if we feel really good about it if it's not a silly one we maybe should you know should consider that one as we go forward because i think we i know it's more fun again to try to get five that we like but i kind of want to win so that's most important to me we gotta win we gotta win and and i think that the problem isn't necessarily our process here are two problems the first is we take this wednesday morning pacific time so it's like we're sort of like figuring out some of our opinions still on the air like by the time we were finished recording last week i was like you know this jacksonville line's kind of weird and they own the colts and then by friday and saturday i was like i love

jacksonville right so if we take this saturday morning our picks might look a little different that's one thing but i think jeff you right. There's just got to be any good relationship has a lot of trust. If I'm like, Jeff, we have to take the Houston Texans. You got to go with me on this one. We're going to look at each other in the eyes and say, all right, I believe you. Because last week we ended up taking a seven and a half point road favorite in the Bengals. Like, what the hell is that? Like, whoa, what are we doing? That's just the antithetical we're better than that i mean wait till we get to the bangles jets game this week so god i've talked myself into both sides on that a hundred times i know i know not great um all right let's start with the thursday night game i'm kind of curious

about uh where we stand here i think we gave good advice for last Thursday game, which was, Hey guys, you know, we like the chargers here, which they ended up covering at the end, but you know, not one of our five games that we would include in our, in our contest.

So the Thursday night game, I feel like this week, Matt will be the same thing we're going to say. So let's go ahead and do it. Yeah. I mean, I just feel like I, the,

the, the Browns are four and a half point favorites at home um some pretty significant news hangs in the balance jadavian clowning's been ruled out um miles garrett's been limited in practice joel batonio is going to be out it looks like um look i feel like i'm like every week i'm just like a reliable pittsburgh uh pick but last week it's funny they ended up covering the late number i got them at three and a half and they covered that which was incredible um but this week i like them again the point total in this one 38 and a half so to say that the

browns are going to win by five like you start doing the math what these scores are it's like are we sure that cleveland's going to put up a lot of points against anybody frankly other than the jets um they're coming off of really bad loss we've got these injuries but the number one thing here uh kevin stefanski won an 11 against the spread in the afc north since he's been the coach there he just does not cover games against teams in the division so i just feel like this is such a prime Pittsburgh spot, but it's just an ugly game on a Thursday. So I don't know if you're with me or you're out here. So, I mean, the answer is certainly Pittsburgh, right?

I mean, I just don't know if I'm going to put one of our – I just don't like doing Thursday Night Football. But the problem with Pittsburgh, Matt, is that their offense is atrocious. Like, the trends are important right like i'm with you on the trends tomlin's good as a dog davante sucks as a favorite but like the steelers offense could score 10 points in this game and the browns just need 17 a turnover special teams play something and all of a sudden they went they covered this game 17 10 like part of this is they have to kind of convince ourselves that things can happen that we don't think can happen

right i just don't see the steelers scoring a lot of points this game even if the browns defense is beat up still his offense is stagnant it's boring it's basic they don't do anything particularly well nausea hair is under by the way like we can probably chalk that up already to a win looking great that is the issue right the issue is that I have to believe the Sears offense can do something so if you're wager on this game maybe you're teasing the under or the oh I mean you can even take take the over down to 32 right and tease it up or I'm teasing oh you know the over so I would put the Sears I got a teaser on this one give them 10 you know 10 and a half points Matt and either choose the under or the over. Probably the under in this situation.

That's how I'd play this game. I did this on Thursday night. I took the Chargers and the over and a teaser. I think the over barely hit in that one. It needed that late touchdown for the cover and the over. So that's the way I'd play this one. I just don't think it's one of our better games of the week. Yeah, I think Steelers' money line would be a pretty good play here they're plus 160 now um yeah i agree i think uh i also

my little like conspiracy theory minds guy is sort of like hey does tomlin actually maybe want to lose this so that then he could bench strabisky next week because this is the this is the chance if they don't look good at all they obviously don't want to lose but with the little mini buy here between week three and week four if their offense isn't doing anything you have to think like hey maybe this is the time where you would put in uh kenny pickett after this week it's a thought i had he's definitely not going to try to lose a game ever well he's definitely not going to try to lose a game ever. Well, he's definitely not going to try to lose. But if it's like, oh, wow, we really can't throw this ball at all, that's not necessarily the worst thing for the team in the long term.

You know what I mean? Sure, but I don't ever think a coach is trying to lose a game. Right. I think we're agreeing, but sort of slightly, yeah, whatever. You see what I'm saying. It could story-wise work for Pittsburghittsburgh but whatever it's a pass let's talk about your kansas city chiefs yeah going to indy what a game this is this could be um the colts are looking terrible no one's going to want to bet them they're plus six and a half at home i don't want to do it. Please don't make me.

Please don't make me. I'm not going to make you. Thank you. Making me is betting the Colts in this spot, obviously. Yeah. Yeah. 0-2, look like crap. Chiefs rolling.

Everyone's going to be betting on Kansas City in this game. I mean, if this gets to a full touchdown, I think the smartest play would be taking Indianapolis. All the sharps this week are going to be all over the Colts. They're going to love the Colts in this spot. It's a buy low desperation spot for them, and I absolutely will kill myself. Not kill myself. That's a little strong.

I'll be very upset with myself if Chiefs win by four and we were on the right side this one. I feel like that is the right side to be on. But again, the Colts look really bad. Willie Gay being suspended for the Chiefs is a pretty big loss for them. I don't know. The timing of suspension was odd, and there must be more out there

than what was reported about his altercation, misdemeanor property damage. You get four games, so I don't know that per se. But weird timing for suspension, important player on the defense. Could Indianapolis take advantage of that with Taylor out of the backfield, the passing game? I think we just stay away from this one, Matt. The culture of the play, the smart play,

I don't want to do it. Yeah, well, I really went back and forth on this because I figured, I actually thought you might be interested in the Chiefs, given the way the Colts have played. I mean, we did this last week, right? Like, we just can't, I'm not going to do it. Could the Chiefs win 42-17? Absolutely.

Is that more likely than 34-30? Probably. Yeah. But we just, this is, them and buffalo are the two teams i would say take his road favorites like you probably you know the touchdown road favorites but i just we'll come maybe come back to it if we have time but i'm saying no right now yeah i mean there's a couple of like really interesting things here the the we talked last week about the jags colts weird rivalry and strange back and forth there the week after the

Colts play the Jags um in their last 34 meetings uh they've covered 24 of them so they're covering 73 percent of the time the week after they play the Jags the fact that this opened at two and a half and got up to six and a half is always a little bit of a red flag on a public on a big public road favorite without like a major injury but i gotta say i think we were right on the matt ryan thing one of the things i just kept saying you know granted i was in an unfortunate position of feeling like i needed to defend carson wentz but i really don't think they upgraded i'm serious like i don't i don't think wentz would have you know Maybe they'd still be 0-2 with Wentz, but Matt Ryan has looked absolutely horrific. Their offense just does not look the same. There's no deep threat. Obviously, Pittman was out last week, but I just can't buy this Colts team, man. I just can't buy Matt Ryan. It's like, what are we doing?

this is obviously not the podcast we talk about really like other things than gambling, but why do we praise the Colts roster building so much with Chris Ballard? Please go on. And I know Chris Ballard is very likable guy. I have friends in the industry who really like Chris Ballard, friends with Chris Ballard, but like, what has he done to earn the praise that we give the Colts every year? He has not found a quarterback in five seasons since Andrew Locke has left. He has not found a left tackle now in three or four seasons. They don't win at the level that you would expect them to win at. They constantly underachieve.

Meanwhile, Tennessee, who we shit on all the time on this podcast, mostly because their fans are annoying on Twitter, all they do is win. Now, they didn't win Monday night, but all they do is win every year. Win the division, be the one seed, go to the championship game. We don't praise them ever, but for some reason, the Colts, Matt, get all this praise. I'm not doing it anymore. They're on my do not praise list. I agree, man.

They haven't won the division since 2014. I think if you just ask the average football fan, hey, the Colts, when did they win the division last? I might have guessed last year. They just are always in the mix, but they never do anything. There's not another receiver on the team besides Pittman. We've given Quentin Nelson so much credit for so long because of one video of him screaming while he blocks,

and their offensive line is a mess. I completely agree. I think they're one of the most overrated teams out there. So I can't back them here. I will say, though, this is their home opener. There are a few instances this week where a team is playing their home opener in week three, and it's like, this is the Colts' season. If they lose this game, good night.

It's completely over. It does feel like a good like first half bet you know yeah yeah but yeah we're alive that yeah not for us had some successful life this year um all right moving on from your team to my team the commanders are hosting the high flying eagles uh eagles like six and a half in dc um do you have a lean here? Yeah, it's got to be commanders, right? I think so. Yeah. You know, obviously, you know, tough game last weekend,

but I have to feel like if you look at, and I know we don't, you know, the quarterback that we don't like to talk about has done okay things, okay things, not great things, okay things. And more than anything else, I feel like this is a little bit of a fade on the Eagles that are riding really high right now

on a short week going on the road. This is Washington's first home. No, they were home week one. And it just feels like you're buying a situation, a division opponent. They know each other well, obviously. And it's a spot that we generally would take the home underdog

in a division game like this. So, I mean, there's not much redeeming quality of Washington at the moment. They're 15th on offense in DVOA, 28th on defense, and Philly's really freaking good, especially in the trenches right now. But I feel like there's a good spot to kind of buy against Philly after a big minor football win. Yeah, I agree. good spot to kind of buy against philly after a big minor football win yeah i i agree um the the line moved uh that this line was set at a pick and it's moved up to six and a half i might

call that a bit of an overreaction yeah um jalen hurts is now 10 to 1 to win the mvp that's tied for third a little much that's a little bit insane i think that the perception of where Philly is based on what I think I expected them to be coming into the season is the biggest difference between of any other team like I feel like people might call them a top five team right now I don't know I the only thing that really scares me is Washington's defensive line is already really banged up and the strength of this Philly team, obviously, is the mobile quarterback. But a divisional game week three,

coming off of a national televised win, huge road favorite with a late move to the public. It's like you got to go with the commander's team, even if it's Carson Wentz. I feel like we sort of know exactly how this is going to go, right? We're going to be sitting there at 3.55 Eastern on Sunday. We'll be texting each other. We'll be furiously cheering on a late comeback from Washington.

They're going to score to go down eight, and they're going to do the two-point attempt down eight, and we're going to be sitting there watching them try to convert this play, thinking to ourselves, I can't believe we bet on Carson Wentz to do this. And for those 30 seconds of that play being called and the play being run, we're going to hate ourselves. Then when he converts, we'll be pumped that the Eagles lost by one by six and we cover the game. But I feel like this sort of has to be the play right now. Yeah, I agree.

It's not going to be the play right now yeah i i agree it's not gonna be pretty also like let's remember this this is a carson this is a huge game for carson wentz like he had this one circle you know that he had this one circle that that was one of the probably the things he was most excited about playing in this division he showed up in jack against jacksonville like everyone wanted to roast him all off season for losing to jacksonville he had a feeling that's why that game was first um and he stepped up he played really well there so i think this might be the opposite actually i think the commanders might come out kind of hot oh okay and then the eagles like because they they the commanders had their shitty half last week that first half was their was their chance to just be terrible so um all right enough

commanders let's move on to bangles jets oh that's spicy transition uh the bangles are still five point favorites on the road in new york everyone's gonna want the bangles this week jeff well they will but they're also gonna gonna take the jets because of what they did last weekend right like it's kind of a it feels like kind of they're both going to take money, right? Maybe one more from the public, one more from the Sharps. Man, I – if the Bengals play to their capability, they're going to beat the shit out of the Jets. But I just don't trust them right now, but I also don't really trust Joe Flacco.

I mean, think about it. They needed – how many things needed to go right for them to even cover last weekend, right? Chubb had to go out of bounds – excuse me, had to stay in bounds. If he goes out of bounds, they don't cover that game because the Browns win by seven. It was six and a half, I think, was the line, right? Then they're up 13 points, and the Browns just let a defender – I mean, excuse me, Browns let a Jets wide receiver just run right by them.

Okay, now they're down six again. Then, no, they're down six now because, you know, they missed extra point. Then onside kick, like I just, so many things have to happen for the Jets to win this game,

to cover this game. I'm still not very certain they're good, but the Bengals are kind of not trustworthy at the moment. You know the Bengals right now are 32nd offensive DVOA? It's insane, dude. Like, they're not playing well right now. They're on the road.

Like, I just am not sure I trust them enough. But I don't think the Jets have to play here, though, either. I don't feel comfortable at all taking the Jets. I just think last weekend was a little bit of fugazi with them. That's not who they are. They kind of lucked into everything happening all at once to win the game, let alone cover the game. Again, if Chubb falls down, game's over.

Scores a touchdown. They miss the extra point. They let someone get behind them for an 80-yard touchdown pass with under two minutes left. It's ridiculous. They're not that point. They let someone get behind them for an 80-yard touchdown pass with under two minutes left. It's ridiculous. They're not that team. I agree. I think you just have to pass this because we don't know anything about the Bengals.

All of our evidence that the Bengals are going to be better is based on football from a year ago. And we just haven't seen it. And I agree. The Jets are not to play here. You're not betting Joe Fl flacco um ever i think that you would think that this is the spot where maybe the bangles could get right that the jets have three sacks on the season um there's not like a scary edge rush yeah it's going to terrorize them like watt and parsons did uh so that should be good but the bangles would take a one point win and be thrilled like

they just got to get on the board to get off the schneid exactly i think this also like the scary thing to me is according to the our friends in action 90 of the bets and 93 of the money is on since he as a road favorite which is always a zone. But this opened at five and hasn't moved. So the fact is that Vegas is very comfortable taking all this Bengals money as a huge favorite. Usually you don't want to fall into that trap, but obviously we're not betting on Joe Flacco's Jets. So I think this is just a hard pass.

And we feel great either way. Good with that. Yeah, okay. Okay, moving on to bills at dolphins. Probably the game of the week here. We're getting the bills. They're laying six as of our recording time in Miami. Man, what's your take on this one?

So what does this open at? I'm kind of curious about where this opened, but are we saying that? Three and a half. Wow. A couple of things here. So I think I said this last week. Buffalo either wins by a thousand or loses. There's no in between. Like look at the games they won.

They have not, I think they have not won a game by less than double digits in two years. Like they either win by a lot or they lose. Those are the two options. So in this situation, they either lose the Dolphins or they win by a lot right i mean like so which one is it matt again i think the dolphins man like they're down 35 14 they were getting their asses kicked in this game and they had a great comeback to it played well in the second

half in the really the fourth quarter things all clicked but again the ravens fumbled the one yard line could have been 42 to 14 the smart play is probably Miami plus six map but I don't know if I if I can stomach that I just I just think Buffalo is a freight train right now um there is some concern I think with the weather right there's just going to be a weather issue with just being hot and humid and coming down for Buffalo how do you feel about this one yeah additionally it's the forecast today says rain. So 86 humid, rainy. Um, I don't think that's ideal for Miami really. Like I don't, that's not like track meet weather. Um, but it is, you know, so tough to play in Miami in September. I, I don't really have a feeling here that obviously, you know, the same

logic from the Washington Eagles game would apply here, except the Dolphins are way better than Washington. They're a home dog in a divisional game. Everyone just watched the Bills kick Tennessee's ass a few days ago. You would think that you would want to take the Dolphins, but I don't know who the public team is here. think that you would want to take the dolphins but like i don't know who the public team is here like everybody's hammering buffalo um but it feels like the dolphins are like the darling of of the public so i just i'm kind of lost here um and i i would rather do anything than bet against buffalo so i guess it's just a stay away i'm with you let's keep a stay away all right we're moving on um okay, Baltimore going to New England.

Baltimore laying three in Foxborough. First time, I think, in 20 years, the Patriots have been underdogs in three straight games. I think we can get two and a half right now. Okay. Does that change your opinion on this game? I don't know. So you're obviously on the Ravens then.

Yeah. Think about it. I go back to last week, right? On a team that we think is good, the Dolphins, it's better than the Patriots, right? They're up 35-14, including kickoff return, touchdown as well. They were forcing turnovers. They were playing well.

And they just shut down their leg in the fourth quarter. It happens. It's the NFL, right? It was a weird weekend. We saw three teams do this, essentially, at the end of games. I just don't like where the Patriots' offense is at right now. Again, I go back to, like, let's count points up, right? So let's say, I think the Patriots so far this year have scored, what, 17 points and 7 points, okay?

So let's just give them the benefit of the doubt, and they score 20 points in this game, Matt. Baltimore's not scoring 23? Yeah. That's the math on this, right? Like, is the Patriots scoring 27 points? Okay. Cover the three.

But if we get two and a half with Baltimore here, coming off an embarrassing loss, they might get – and again, this is Wednesday now. The one thing we have to do with this wager, though, if we do guys – Lamar Jackson did not throw today in the open part of practice. He had a sleeve on his elbow. So we obviously have to know his status

before we make a wager like this. But also, they might get Ronnie Stanley back this week. They might get J.K. Dobbins back this week. I'm okay with keeping this as the play for now until we get more information and change what we want to do. But I do like, again, do the math in your head, right? If Baltimore scores 23 points, 24 points, 28 points, does New England score 20, 21, 25 points?

Yeah. Yeah. I don't think so. I, yeah. I mean, Baltimore, this also isn't, you know, the Patriots offense is not the Miami offense. And I think if Jacoby Myers doesn't make that crazy catch last week week everything would be different about the patriots and how people are perceiving them i oh man i this is a hard one because i have a little bit of a little bit of lack of trust in baltimore but i do think two and a half it's a pretty good number but do you trust New England right now? No, I don't. And this is, you know, I mentioned last week I have to throw out all these stats about Belichick with Brady.

Yeah. He's played, he's coached 73 games since Brady left. He's 36-36-1 against the spread without Brady. He is mediocre. So I think that you take i think taking two and a half years is not a bad play uh baltimore four no on the after a loss against the spread in their last four um i i mean they scored 35 last week like they can they can score at will it was just a matter of some weird some you know very strange outcomes. So we can buy low on the Ravens. Sounds good.

We're going next. Nice. Lions and Vikings. Tale of two teams here. The Vikings are laying six. What do you think? I kind of like Minnesota. Talk to me. Well, they're off a really bad performance and

Cousins is just bad in prim time. He's really good at Sunday at one o'clock. So he's really good. The Lions injuries continue to add up offensive line wise, especially, you know, they're really able to run the ball. So I think that that is a concern against Minnesota right now.

Just can you stop the run? So I think there is like, if you like the Lions here, it's because they can just run the ball down the throat of the Vikings. Minnesota's 32nd right now in rush defense. But this feels like a really good time to buy low on Minnesota and kind of fade a very hot Lions team. I don't feel great about it, but I think my initial gut is this is the direction to go,

is to take the Vikings. But I will say, though, Minnesota has not scored a lot of points, right? They scored 7 and 17 in two games, I believe, if I have that correctly. So we praise them for the Packers win in week one. But they didn't blow the Packers out. And then obviously we saw this past week it was a bad game against – sorry, yeah, 23 points in the first game. 23 points and 7 points.

It's a short week coming back home. I don't feel, I guess I don't feel great about it, but I would take Minnesota here. What would you do? That's interesting. I think I would maybe lean Detroit, but not strong. You're right. This is a good chance to buy low on Minnesota. But I do think Detroit, I think this is a track meet. And I don't think that we haven't seen Minnesota's offense really click yet. Like I have a feeling the Lions, like Lions can score all the time. Like their running game is awesome. Golf is protected. My guy, St. Brown is, is unstoppable.

Like, I just feel like this game could be pretty close if it's a high total. The line on the total on this is 52.5. For reference, the Thursday night game we talked about, the low total, that's 38.5. They're expecting a shootout here, which I think favors Detroit. If this is who's going to get the stop,

Minnesota's probably the team. This was a pass for me. I don't feel great about it. We can pass for now. What do we have? We have two games. We have Washington and Baltimore.

Baltimore, again, can be thrown out if we have to because of Lamar's injury. Yeah, okay. If he's hurt. We don't know. I feel like there's going to be games we like. Let's go to another weird 1 o'clock game, the Raiders and the Titans. Two 0-2 teams, is that right?

The Raiders are 0-2. The Titans are home dogs. They're plus two. Do you have a lean in this one? I feel like we've nailed the Titans so far this year, right? We just did not think they're going to be any good. But also, I think the Raiders are going to be good.

So we're kind of both in this. I think Tennessee plus two is certainly the play here, Matt. The Raiders just blew that game against Arizona. Not great. But I think they're a great team. And Tennessee's back

against the wall, man. They have been very good for three straight years, four straight years now. I don't think they're going to just go out and whimper, right? After a poor performance on Monday night.

I think the two points i'd love to take tennessee plus two here um you're just trusting basically a bad team to bounce back not a bad team not as good as they've been in the past to bounce back tano's been pretty bad i love that we took that under on him um for his passing yards i feel pretty good about that one so far looks good but the raiders just aren't very good. I go back to that again for the 100th time. Tennessee does have some offensive line issues, which might sway you from taking them in this spot,

but I would certainly take Tennessee plus two if you feel the same way. Huh. I didn't really have a lean on this one. It's not a great lean. It's just what I want to do. They opened as a favorite and it's moved to, I actually see that we could get it two and a half lean it's just i don't know what to do they opened as a favorite and it's moved to i actually see that we could get it two and a half for uh for tennessee um so maybe we can lock that

in if we decide to go with this yeah i agree it's you know i'm a little hesitant to say like well the titans are usually good but i do think that applies here i think that maybe it's possible that josh mcdaniels is getting exposed which is only too fun. Derrick Henry hasn't looked right, which is super concerning, but I do think that it's not like the Raiders. Rushdie is going to really be intimidating. I just can't – I don't know. I don't see the Titans going 0-3 in their own building. No, I do not.

For me, this is a maybe. It's one of those where I think if we find other ones, we would be totally fine with doing that. Because I think the next game on this list, I unfortunately have a lean on this one. Oh, me too. Oh, I was so sure I was going to talk you into this. I feel terrible about this.

Well, hopefully we're on the same side. Yeah, me too. So it's Saints at Carolina. The Saints are two and a half point favorites in Charlotte. You can get three very easily. Depends on which direction you want to be at. The Panthers plus three has to be the play, man. I agree.

I'm so relieved. We're 0-2 betting on the Panthers this season. But this is like an absolute must-win game. It's a smash. Or the season is completely over and Matt Rule is being fired. Carolina is ahead of New Orleans in every DVOA statistic, offense, defense, and special teams. They just haven't put it together yet.

And part of that's coaching. Matt Rule, I don't think he's a good coach. He's 10-25 now. We saw last weekend the amount of opportunities they had to win that game. Just didn't get it done. But it's either this game or Matt Will gets fired, essentially. That's what this is for the Panthers. They're getting three points at home.

The Saints, I think, were kind of exposed last weekend to the falls they have on their team. Now their best corner is out. A lot of more for this week, right? Did he get suspended? Or is it Mike Evans? A lot of more did, too? I did.

Hank, tell us if we're wrong, but I'm pretty sure you did. I think he got suspended, too. I just saw Mike Evans appeal, so more did too. I did Hank. Tell us if we're wrong, but I'm pretty sure you did. I think he got suspended too. I just saw Mike Evans appeal. So I'm not sure. No, he says he's not, not going to spend it,

not going to spend. Okay. Sorry about that guys. Not to say that. So nonetheless, the Panthers to me, divisional home dog, getting three points,

an absolute must win has to happen here for Carolina. The staff has fired Baker Mayfield, you know, his experiments over in Carolina. The staff is fired. Baker Mayfield, you know, his experiments over in Carolina, his staff gets fired. So three points. I'll take the Panthers. Jameis Winston's career record is a favorite is eight,

18 and one against the spread. Yeah, it's, I think getting the plus three is huge. I mean, last week in our text thread, I was a little, getting a little concerned about uh even before the jamis thing camara's ability to play uh he was banged up last week he's questionable this week as the time we're taping this without camara what what are we

talking about with this offense here really like everyone's pumped about thomas and alave but like what are we really talking about i I agree. This is the Panther season and they've got to win it. I think an injured Jameis Winston is a road favorite. It does not scare me. Agreed. All right. We got another one. I like it. Okay.

Nice. All right. Interesting. Okay. We're moving on. Oh, a sizzler. The Texans are at the Bears. Bears are laying three. Should we save everyone some time? And just take the Texans or not? Or just not talk about it at all? That's fine. Move it along.

Next game. Did you like Houston? No, not necessarily. I didn't write one sentence about that because I knew we wouldn't take it. I do think I would potentially lead Chicago here, actually, because I just don't think the Texans are ever going to win games, but I don't feel good about that. But I would rather not ever think about that game again.

Okay, let's do it. Because the next one is very juicy, buddy. Sure is. Jags at Chargers. The Chargers are home, laying seven. Do you know who the second team in the NFL right now in DVOA is? Is it Jacksonville? It's Jacksonville, buddy.

That's great. I trust the Chargers 0% to cover 7 points in any game ever. After they lost to the Chiefs, I thought the same thing as always. They just leave me wanting more. I hope my wife doesn't think that, but

that's the way I feel about the Chargers. It's just like they're like, oh, great. you're sort of close again to being the Chiefs, but guess what? You just didn't do it again. Their quarterback has a fractured, not a fractured rib, but like a broken rib cartilage, like fractured rib cartilage. He gets hit one time in that side.

He's done for the game. Like, is Jacksonville plus seven? Yes. The number opened at 10, 10 i think down to seven now everyone's gonna be at jacksonville i get it if i get a full touchdown with a quarterback that's beat up the team i don't really trust and i dude i've been high on doug peterson for a while now you guys know this if you listen for a long time now i will gladly take jacksonville plus seven i don't care if there's public money on i haven't haven't even looked yet. I'm all in Jacksonville plus seven in this game. I'm with you. Lock it in. I'll throw in some trends while you write

that one down. Since 2016, teams that play in the Eastern time zone and then on the road in Pacific time zone the following week hit 61% of the time against the spread. I think that's pretty interesting. The Chargers last year were 0're but we're oh and two straight up and against the spread with extra rest which i found to be pretty interesting um teams with 10 or more days of rest this is all from our friend emily who said action network by the way 10 or more days of rest after a divisional loss are uh hit 30 of the time as favorites. And the sharp money is just all over Jacksonville. It's actually like pretty evenly split on the tickets, but 94% of the money is on Jacksonville,

which is pretty unbelievable. And also Trevor Lawrence hasn't ever covered a road game. Like that's going to change now. Urban Meyer's gone. I think this is the one I love this. I'm in buddy. totally in on this one let's do it all right we got four really so far so we're we're making our way down here we

we thought we'd have no one but pressure's off that's usually how it goes this game is fairly interesting because i don't know if i feel great about anything in this game yeah i actually have a really strong opinion here. It's Green Bay at Tampa. Yep, Tampa.

We're seeing around one and a half or two. Give me your thoughts on this and then I'll follow up. Well, we have a Tampa team that seems to be in a little bit

of a stall right now, right? Offensively, some concerns obviously in the offensive line. Tom Brady just not playing up to his level of standard. No Mike Evans.

Gawen, we don't know his status so far. The Packers look like the Packers more last weekend. They're going to run the football in Tampa Bay. Now, they played poorly a couple years ago. They seem to have Aaron Rodgers' number a little bit, right? I don't have a strong play, Matt, but if you have one and you want to put it in consideration, be my guest. Yes.

I'm a big buyer of Tampa here as a short home favorite. You've mentioned the history. Rodgers has not really ever looked good against this Bucs D. We're getting sort of the, oh, the Packers are fine bounce. Remember that they always beat the Bears. They always beat the Bears on prime time. The way that they beat the the bears they always beat the bears on prime time um the way that they beat the bears was they rushed for over 200 yards against a pretty soft defense that is not going to happen against the keem hicks and vita vea i get the whole thing about the wide receivers but like godwin might end up playing he seems to have been close uh last week uh he might

end up playing and even if he doesn't, if their receiving core is Russell Gage and Cole Beasley and whoever else, Julio maybe, I think I'd still like that better than Green Bay's wide receiving core, being totally honest. So I just think you take Brady as a small home favorite against a Green Bay team that basically played one really good half against Chicagoago yeah um and has not looked great and it's like everyone says all tampa doesn't look great they just like they just beat the saints like they always lose to the saints

and they end up kicking their asses um so i think tampa is actually kind of flying a little bit under the radar for how good they actually are i like it i did i'm not i'm not arguing with your favorite picks of the week anymore so let's move it along to rams cardinals love that um rams are laying three and a half to arizona arizona pretty sketchy team uh do you have a do opinion here i think it's a strong stay away buddy agreed not we're not we don't bet on cliff kingsbury we made that very clear and the rams um as far as gambling purposes, feel very untrustworthy, right? I mean, they were up huge against Atlanta. Couldn't cover that game.

We're on the road now. I feel zero about this game. Yeah, pass. McVay owns the Cardinals, but this is a strange number in getting the hook. The Rams have not looked good at all this season. But this is a strange number in getting the hook. The Rams have not looked good at all this season. And Arizona could bounce back from shaking that stink off after that crazy win.

So that's a stay away. Falcons and Seahawks. Skip. Skip. Next game, please. Let's save some time. If you had to pick a side, one word, who are you picking? Under. Under.

Yeah, that's nice. Yeah. Just default to under. 42. It's not even higher than a key number of 41 thank god forget it um sunday night game 49ers at denver uh the 49ers are small road favorites uh they're laying a point and a half at mile high do you have a take here mile high do you ever take here i mean the niners but shanahan's bad as a favorite the broncos just can they be this bad really with the talent they have on their team probably not um the niners are much better with with with jimmy graupel i mean i i think i, I think I would lead Niners here, Matt, but I don't feel that great about it. Especially because I think, I think the, I think when I originally looked at

these games this week, this is what I highlight is like, I must have this game in here, but now that we've gotten a bunch of games that I think I like more than this one, I don't feel as strongly about the Niners because I think the Broncos have the talent to win this game. They haven't shown it yet and they certainly can just decide this weekend to play much better. Yeah. I really wanted to come in hot on the Niners here. Same. But then this flipped. I think actually Denver was favored and then the market really changed. Let me see where this opened up at. Yeah, this opened with the Broncos as a two-and-a-half point favorite at home. And then everyone has been betting the Niners. I feel completely differently about the Niners with the quarterback switch.

It's unfortunate with Trey Lance, obviously. But I would be comfortable laying this, but you mentioned Shanahan's just not as good as a favorite. He's incredible as an underdog. The other thing that's just kind of strange here is you know the broncos are they're not going to go they're not going to be terrible all year right like they're going to figure it out like this clock management stuff you have to think hack it just like by virtue of being a professional coach it's going to get better at that stuff but the other thing is russell wilson has always has traditionally been excellent in primetime games and he owns the 49ers.

This is a thing people just don't remember. Yeah, Sarah will beat them all the time. He's 16-4 against them in his career. So if there's ever going to be a get-right spot for Russell Wilson, I think this is it. But I don't feel confident enough in their team to bet it. So I think this is just a stay away again. But this will be a really interesting one.

I'm with you. I think you stay away because the other games you have, I think, are better. I do too. All right, Monday night, your Giants, small, short home favorites against Dallas. My God, what a line. How is this not

higher? Public money on Dallas, I guess, but we're also not betting Daniel Jones as a favorite either at home. I mean, this is just a stay away for me, 100%. And because I kind of want to take the Giants under 10.5 wins in two weeks,

I kind of hope they win to get a lot of that money. The Giants are stinky, man. They're one of the worst 2-0 teams of all time. They don't do anything particularly well they're okay on defense we saw last weekend that there was um you know kind of that first half so it felt like a lot like like geno smith that first half rush of cooper rush and then all of a sudden he just is bad in the second half it's about three second half points they're not going to move the ball on offense.

But who's blocking Micah Parsons? Who's scoring points on the Giants? Those are my concerns. So for that reason, this is a good teaser under position. I think if you're looking at it, it's still at 39. So you can put up to 44 and take the under in this spot. I would do that in this game more than anything else. Yeah.

Oh, man. What do you want to do? No, this game sucks. I mean, the total's 39. I think it's the lowest Monday night point total in the last five years. It's maybe not exactly right, but it's close. Close, yeah. The other thing, I want to thank our guy evan action again for this one so i think there's like an urban legends that quarterbacks who back up quarterbacks they come

out they usually like play decently in that first game and then the second game they don't tend to do pretty well uh since 2020 in the second game where a backup quarterback has started they're 6 and 16 straight up so i feel like this could be one of those games where it's like oh like cooper rush like he looked okay he got out of some jams last week the bangles were a mess anyway maybe he doesn't look quite as good on the road on national television um and danny dimes who we've given a lot of shit he's covered six out of seven so i i think i lean on the giants here which is crazy you were mentioning maybe maybe it was off the air but at the no you mentioned at the beginning of this like the giants couldn't end up going like five and oh the giants might start the season with just this crazy schedule um going five and oh but i i i don't want to bet

that one at all but i think that's the way i would lead if we had to find a game out of this yeah i'm i'm fine with that just like kind of just staying away as much as possible following me with you i mean we have five right we have five yes we have five so a couple things to consider here as we go through these I just saw this tweet come through and I wonder if it changes your mind about something. I'm going to pull up right now from Warren Sharp, who I think is now my colleague at Fox Sports too so

Patrick Mahomes has played Gus Bradley Gus Bradley is defense coordinator right, former Jacksonville head coach seven times in his career he's now the DC for the Colts. Seven times. He's known for 17 touchdowns and two interceptions. Bradley's Colts defense has allowed 72% completion rate.

That came against Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence. We're not taking the Chiefs. We talked about this game earlier because these other games are better, but they're going to kick the Colts' ass. Better way, if you would like, teaser them, put them down to a pick, basically. Our plays

so far. Ready? Washington plus six and a half hosting the Eagles. Baltimore minus two and a half at New England. Public play there, but under a field goal i mean again i do the math right yep carolina plus three at home classic divisional home dog fending for their lives jacksonville on the road plus seven at los angeles love tampa bay hosting green bay this week the maybe was tennessee with the raiders at home i feel like that could be out of there i'm

good with the five we have. I'm very happy with these five. I feel like we did in week one. I'm really glad that we're aligned on the Panthers. That was one that I was really scared to bring up because they burned us. We're already 0-2 on them. I know. But you got to go back to the well.

You got to do the ugly ones. That's what – never mind. Never mind. Kid's show. I already made one joke today already that I don't, I don't know if it's going to make it in. You might be listening to this right now and you might be like, Oh,

what joke was he talking about? I don't know. It was funny. Oh, it should be left in. It was funny. Well, we can have a,

we can have some, some, some fun in there. All right. Well, we have our, we have our, our, our teams.

We are excited for this week. Please rate review, subscribe as usual. We're starting to get a lot of, a lot more reviews. I love reading them, especially when you mentioned Hank's dad, he gets so fired up when his dad has mentioned in the,

in the reviews, uh, five and five so far looking to be better this week. Obviously we will, we're gonna get back on track, uh, PAC 12, by the way,. We're going to get back on track. Pac-12, by the way, I'm five and eight so far this year.

I like Oregon State plus seven. Cal minus three. I like Arizona State first half against Utah. I like the over in Stanford, Washington, but it's like 64 now. When I liked it, it was at 60.5. So, I mean, you walk on the three and more points. I mean, could make a difference, could not. Those are my Pac-12 plays. Hopefully, we're getting walk on the three and more points. I mean, I don't couldn't make the difference. Could not.

Those are my impact to a place. Hopefully we're getting better on those. We've done better. We went Oh, and two, two and three and three and three. So we're slowly building up to a better record in the pack. 12.

Again, my all-time record is like 67 and 30. So we're, we're still in the very, very green, the pack 12. All right, guys,

have a great weekend. Everyone. Hope you enjoyed. Talk to you guys on Tuesday.