Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Best Bets for NFL Week 5

Episode Date: October 6, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back to give you their best bets for the fifth week of the NFL season. This episode is all about learning to trust after having your heart broken. Can the boys forgive teams like the Ravens and Panthers, even if they've already been let down by them multiple times the season? Tune in to find out.Be sure to drop a rating and follow if you enjoyed the show, and as always, leave a comment or tweet @geoffschwartz and @mmford10 to tell your favorite gambling gurus what you're thinking.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday october 7th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz a smart new power by the varsity podcast network we're a tad later than usual because i had to fast for yom kippur didn't have to i chose to fast for yom kippur did not want to record this podcast matt yesterday on an empty stomach angry because i hadn't had water in 18 hours but i'm back today with a vengeance we had a so-so week last weekend we were two two and one according to to hank our record in the rundown was 28 and 37 it is actually 10 9 and 1 and baltimore keeps screwing us two times this year we were on baltimore when they were up in the fourth quarter by double digits and did not cover those games i'm upset with you

ravens but we're going to go through all the games as usual today. We're going to knock them out like we did last week. We're starting to get better at the beginning of the season. We had this problem the last couple of years. We fixed that now. Before we get going, though, please give us a rating if you like this show. Five stars, preferably.

Write a review. Tell us how much you like it. At Jeff Schwartz, at MM410. Matt, how are you doing, buddy? I'm doing good. saw speaking the ravens um i'm friends with a lot of ravens fans from growing up in baltimore county the ravens have trailed for a total of 14 seconds this season and are two and two is that the craziest thing you've ever heard like that's that's not been on those two games i know and this is in the hard part about doing this show it's hard and easy typically it's wednesdays recording this thursday um but

you know the lines on wednesday obviously move and we often get we're probably even half and half we get good lines bad lines but baltimore closed at three and a half we got three right like if you wait later in the week you might might get a better number. Very rarely, though, do we get bad numbers? I think just that situation, we got to push instead of a win. And now we're 10, 9, and 1. But we gave you some good information on Thursday Night Football last week. We got you in early in the week. And Matt, I do not think, though, we're going to start with this Thursday Night Football game for our five favorite wagers.

No, I don't think we are. So because people are probably going to hear this mostly after this game is played we could be fast on it but the colts are at denver philip lindsey revenge game uh the broncos are laying three and a half uh we're obviously passing this if you had to pick it who would you take i just take the under under 42 both offenses stink they're without their running backs. Short week, so am I trusting Nathaniel Hackett to put together a good game plan on four days, Matt? Matt Ryan can't stop foaming the football,

so I would lean under here if I had to choose a wager in this game. The Colts have gone under all four of their games this year. Broncos have gone three under four. Also, Thursday Night Football would have been four for four unders except for the end of that steelers browns game otherwise it would have been four for four prime time unders have hit a ton this season including my night football sun at football as well so i'd lean under here you know these national games just to kind of word of caution everyone's betting the over right because it's a lot of public money standalone games the unders typically the better play here at 42 uh it's a good number

good high number so um i would go under here yeah okay fair enough um i'm not even going to use any more time on this game let's move to the london game uh your new york giants are uh not hosting they're playing the packers in london uh the packers are laying eight right now and by the way we're gonna i'm gonna use the super contest line since we actually have them this week that's why not um so so that's an eight in the contest um man I guess do we know who's playing quarterback Daniel Jones I think practice today right yeah he's gonna he should play he looked it looked decent in the video that we saw of him um running around there um you, I count the Giants here. Daniel Jones, outside of Matloff Stadium, is 13-6 against the spread.

He does really well. If you look at kind of the way the Giants are evolving this offense right now, it's becoming like a triple-option-ish offense, right? They're not going to pass the ball very much, but Saquon Barker's healthy. They're going to use Daniel Jones' legs, and they're going to run the ball and find unique ways to get the ball in space, as we've seen with what Brian D'Abel can do at Buffalo now with the Giants. And the Packers just haven't looked in sync this year. They're scoring less points. They're passing for less yards. They're throwing more interceptions. They're allotting

more sacks than they have under Matt LaFleur previously. The offensive line's coming back from injury a little bit. Left tackle, right tackle. And obviously, Devontae Adams is not there. They're missing some of that. Rodgers had looked kind of out of sorts at times. It's not my favorite, Matt, but I would take the points here. Either you take the eight points with the Giants or you tease the Packers down to two. Those are your options here.

I think the Packers minus eight is a terrible wager, but Giants plus eight would be – I could live with that, put it like that. It doesn't feel like Green Bay has the easiest schedule every year. They get Bailey Zappy. They played Tampa when they had no wide receivers. Now they're playing a banged up Daniel Jones Giants team. I just feel like everything always breaks their way for some reason. Favorites in these international games, 27-7-1 straight up,

23-12 against the spread. I feel like I always try to stay away from these because there's always something weird, and I think a seasoned coach like LeFleur is going to benefit. I don't know. I don't know if I can take a team where i'm not sure who the quarterback is and you might be betting on jake from so i think i like this as a teaser there's another game i really like as a teaser later but yeah this is probably a pass for me i guess because i just i

don't know i feel like we just can't take a team with no quarterback certainty in london especially yeah that's in and that's part of it too by the way first time ever that a london game has featured two teams with winning records wow yeah and the giants are like the absolute worst team with a winning record we've ever seen a long time yeah yikes that's oh man poor i don't know why they still show up to these games in lond London because they they seem to get really fired up even when the teams stink speaking of teams that stink the Steelers are 14 point underdogs to the bills this week um which is but I think the biggest line of the season and by far the biggest line of the week I don't know I do you have a feeling on this one my feeling is we're not taking the Steelers so that's my chance. Yeah.

Like, and I knew, I knew all the numbers are great with Tomlin as, as a dog, especially on the road. They're all great. We benefited this year of taking them. It was a week one.

We took them right on the road at Cincinnati. You know, Buffalo won their first close game in forever this past weekend. And this feels like just Steelers just aren't good right now right and they have not won a game without TJ Watt they're starting Kenny Pickett I believe Buffalo again played a bad first half of Baltimore played much better in the second half I don't I think there's just no play on this game like it's not even a teaser game for me it's just like a stay away game like no teaser just stay away and you know maybe a third tv game possibly but

like this is not gonna be competitive game i think yeah i there's part of me that wants to make the steelers case but i feel like i make that case every week i don't think it's smart with a rookie quarterback i will say though next week the bills go to kansas city then they play the packers it's like i don't know if they're gonna like unload their whole playbook this week to to run away with this game and win by 30 i would not have to though right yeah they shouldn't have to this team the steelers team is just clearly a lot different without tj watt so i don't think you can lay the 14 i think if i had to pick i probably would say lay the 14 um but that's that's a pass we can do better than that yeah all right moving on oh for three so far uh falcons bucks anything going on in tampa this week i haven't heard any big news

coming out of tampa or anything i haven't either um except except arthur smith the falcons head coach um said that tom brady and doesn't get enough respect for for his longevity in his career so i think that was just a shot right at gabe matt that was just a troll right at gabe like he knew gabe was going to hear this he knew i was going to tweet tweet at gabe about this and how absolutely hilarious that he said that um so what is the super contest line for this because right now the line i think is nine and a half i don't think that's a super contest line what do you have for this one yeah the contest is eight and a half uh so interesting that there was a big reaction going the other way the falcons of course undefeated against the spread everyone's darling is it crazy to like

the bucks here yeah i think it is the bucks to me are a great teaser option matt um but atlanta is doing some fun things on offense. And, you know, they're one of these teams that is just feisty because of that reason. Now, if Tampa can shut down the run, Mariota is going to have a long day, which is certainly possible, but they're just doing like some very unique things in the run game.

Like they're very creative. They're using Mariota's ability to run out. He's not running a lot, but they're kind of using that ability to run to mask some formations and some things they're doing. The case can be made, obviously, that Tampa Bay is going to bounce back because they had a bad performance against Kansas City, and now Atlanta is going to be on the brunt end of that. What's your case for Tampa here?

Because remember, we decided on this podcast two weeks ago that we're going to take our best place. I don't care. Like we have to do that. Cause we, we, we win those plays. The ones were like,

I don't know. Let's just agree to put that one in. We lose those ones. So do you have a strong case for Tampa Bay? I don't know if it's strong, but like the, obviously the linchpin of that running game is Cordero Patterson. He leads the team.

He's averaging six yards a carry on almost 60 carries, which is insane. He is on the injured reserve. So it's Al Ajear and Caleb Huntley, who they just signed off the street, and Mariota. I don't think that's quite as dynamic. I think Patterson just offers them a lot more. So that's a big problem, and obviously the strength of Tampa's defense is that rushing the Veya and Keem Hicks up front. offers them a lot more. Yes. So that's a big problem. And obviously the strength of Tampa's defense is, you know,

that rushing, uh, that, that the VEA and, uh, Keem Hicks up front. I also think like, I was very surprised this,

this opened at 10 and a half. Everyone loves the Falcons because they keep winning everybody money. Then it's dropped down. And then this line hit eight and a half. And then the, the sharps must've hit Tampa pretty hard at eight and a half, which is a dead number. So I have a feeling that this is a little bit of a there's a little bit of trickery going on here. But from a purely just like you can't actually bet on this.

But do we really feel like Tom Brady is going to come out flat this week off of a primetime loss against Atlanta? Who, by the way, he has a little bit of history against and he's undefeated against as a member of the Bucs. I just have a feeling about this. It's not really rational, but also the Bucs finally are healthy on offense, right? Like Godwin, he's not practicing fully. He was limited. Julio Jones.

There was a headline today. Julio Jones practices second day in a row it's like the first time in two decades uh and evans is healthy it's like they're healthy they're they're home against a team that's overachieved and we're getting a better number here actually so i kind of think the bucks aren't a bad play it's just a stupid number like you don't you don't love taking a team minus eight and a half look i came into the week on the line i'm thinking that you did um and if tampa said and this is the thing that makes this just so tough to do these picks right is like do we take into account last week or the previous three weeks with their defense right like is last week just can't say just beat their ass because i could make a case that

if the if the normal tampa defense shows up atlanta scores 13 points, and Tampa wins 24-13, right? Or is this indicative of what the run defense is going to be moving forward? In that case, Atlanta covers this game. So I think there's too much back and forth to bet this game, so I think we'll stay away. We'll put it in the maybes, possibly. But the next game on our schedule, I really like a side of this one. All right.

I think I do, too. Chargers at Browns. I hope we're on the same side here. The Super Contest line is the Chargers as a two-and-a-half point road favorite in Cleveland. Hit me. All right. Do you want to say it at the same time? Three, two, one.

Browns! Browns! Yeah! Let's go! Yes! Oh, great spot to be right here. Three would have been great. If we'd done this yesterday, we would have gotten three, I think.

Two and a half is a good spot to be in. The Browns have kind of dicked away a couple games this year, right? Like, they lost that game to the Jets. They're up 30-17 with a minute and a half left. And this Falcons game, we were watching this game. Like, the Browns, what? They got the ball to one-yard line and went backwards four times they had a fourth and three they didn't convert like Atlanta didn't really win that game the Browns blew that game the Chargers are coming off a win in Houston but again everything's

they're still so beat up now I get a Miles Garrett back from injury back from his car accident press ready to go against the Chargers backup left tackle, backup right tackle. Like, dude, I'm all in the Browns here. The Chargers run defense still not that much better than it was last year. I think the Browns run this ball. They get after Justin Herbert,

and it becomes a really long day for the Chargers. I like the Browns here plus two and a half. In terms of average yards per rush against for defenses, the Lions are by far the worst defense in the league, no surprise. But the Chargers are giving up 5.4 yards per carry. That bodes pretty well for our friend Nick Chubb, who has been dragging a lot of fantasy teams to the promised land this year. I love this.

I also think last week, this was my bad. I really wanted Cleveland last week. The Miles Garrett thing, you just like, I don't know why I overlooked that so much. It's like, yeah, the Falcons didn't have a dynamic passing attack, but he's the best player on this team. And having him back out there just obviously matters the chargers haven't proven anything like the chargers just beat the texans and we had the texans last week right like we were we were like sneaky kind of like they kind of had a chance at the end they

almost backdoored it yeah um so i think that the chargers are riding a little bit high off the chiefs game a few weeks ago when they were much healthier so to me and by the way this is west to east this is an outdoor game this is they're still missing their left tackle and Slater they're still banged up up front Herbert's still banged up yeah you don't know what the deal is with Keenan now I'm stunned that this line we're getting two and a half it feels like it this feels like a great it was three for most of the week and so this is the thing about doing the super contest lines is two and a half it is two and a half around like that's what it is now when we would have recorded this yesterday we're in three but uh i'm fine with two and i think the

browns just win this game so yeah i'll take two and a half points but um i think browns just straight out win this game all right next up another game where this we got kind of we've done this earlier, buddy. We have a better line. Yeah, although this one moved pretty quickly earlier in the week. This is the Dolphins and the Jets. This game, three and a half is the line in both the contest and what's available to you now. It seems like everyone had the same realization this week, which was like, wait a second.

The Dolphins are laying only three to the jets what's happening so it got bumped up to three and a half i think i might still like it i'm curious what you think yeah you can get minus you can get minus three at like minus 120 right now that's a good wager to make that's like a three and a half look uh teddy bridgewater is playing this game all he does is cover as a quarterback it's like his entire career he's covered it's 70 something like that right matt i don't know if there was in front of him yeah you might have them i do oh he's covered he's 24 and 6 against the spread on the road in his career that's absolutely stunning it's like tom brady aaron rogers level and i think it's because a lot

of people just look at him and think you you know, not as talented as his counterpart. He's a backup. But he's good. He's a good football player. He does what the job is assigned to him, right? There's an importance, I think, especially in this offense, of just doing what's there, right? Taking what's in front of you.

And while the Jets, I think, defensively have done a better job this season, like I think their DVOA on defense is 25th. It feels better than that. But think about the games they've won this year. They've won two games. Down 30-17. And then last weekend, where were they down? 10 points in the fourth quarter and came back.

They're not that good. The Dolphins are a good football team. Good on defense. They've had now rest to get through since last Thursday. And to me, they're just a better football team. The three and a half stinks. I'm with you there. But I'm very much okay with taking them in this spot.

Yeah. Jets are sort of the – there's something going on at MetLife. Maybe you can shed some light on it. The Jets are 2-0 on the road, 0-2 at home. I mean, the Giants – Daniel Jones stinks covering the spread at home too. That's what I'm saying. I don't know what's, maybe they built that on like a cursed piece of land.

It's because it's just kind of like a boring ass stadium. Yeah. It's just like a dead stadium. Like there's nothing like, it's just dead, dude. It's like, that's why. Yeah. It's interesting. I mean, so to go back to this,

like, so when Tua, other people have talked about this, when Tua was, the look ahead line for this was six, and it moved, I think, what, three, four points, and then has bumped back up with Teddy in there. So, you know, I think Tua has been obviously very good this season. By the way, hope his recovery is going well. But I do think that, that like that's a pretty that's a pretty aggressive swing um and also the jets like do the jets deserve a ton of credit for

beating you know the steelers last week where mitch trubisky got benched and uh pickett came in and is in the middle of the game i i can't imagine that that was super well choreographed on the Steelers. And they barely won. Like they, they maybe could have, should have lost that game. You could argue. So I think the jets are at an all time high in value because everyone's

like, who is that? Wilson? He's kind of fun. Like this team is a little frisky and then you're getting the hook, which is going to scare people. The only thing that freaks me out a little bit is everybody is on this like all the three quarters of the bets are on the dolphins and then 85 of the money according to

our friends at action network are also on the dolphins so this is like a pros and joes aligned on a road favorite with a backup quarterback that's like screaming like calm down here um so i'm willing to bet this because i i do think the dolphins are good but i'm a little bit scared i am too there's people that i see that are just much worse than us at gambling like the dolphins this week that always worries me i kind of want to be the opposite side of people that stink and we for the most part have been on that side so far this year so i'm good with it for now um let's uh let's move along to the next game yeah all right let's call that a maybe um okay we're at the bears and the vikings uh this is now up to seven and a half the contest has this it's

seven for minnesota it's in minnesota the only player here is the bears, right? You think so? I mean, are you taking, are you taking Minnesota? I'm not taking Minnesota, but the bears stink. Yeah. I don't, I have no interest.

I have zero interest. I think if I was taking a number in this game, it'd be Minnesota, but I don't feel great about it. I mean, the, the, the,

the bears are just really, really bad. Um, and they can't score. And again, this is like a one Eastern game. This is when Kirk Cousins plays his best football. Sure is. So I think if I was leaning one way, it would be the Vikings minus seven,

but no. All right. I'm going to keep building our tees here, where we've got the Packers. We've definitely got the Vikings. The Chiefs will be in there eventually. The Chiefs maybe will be in there. But let's at least start there. You could say maybe the Bucs should go in there too.

At two and a half. That's kind of tasty. I've already done a... Bucs. Where's my thing? I've already done a tease. Yeah, I did KC, Jacksonville, Green Bay already. KC, Jacksonville. Jacksonville, already so jackson interesting jacksonville next yeah let's do that they're playing houston uh they're seven point favorites

jacksonville i think they've been favored three times in the last two years and it's always been against houston um which is just kind of strange but hou Houston's actually weirdly had their number, I think, so it's kind of an interesting matchup. But anyway, you've got a lean here, it sounds like. Well, no, I don't really have a lean here. I just would take Jacksonville. Yeah, they played poorly last weekend. I get that.

And they still almost covered, right, on the road at Philadelphia. And Houston just is not good. I wish they were better, and I wish I could make the case, but they've scored nine points against Houston. I mean, a nine against Denver 20 against a bad Chicago team. And they scored 24 last weekend, kind of in a pinch there at the very end.

I think Jacksonville just bounces back and wins this game by more than seven, but I'm not sure I feel great about this being one of our plays, but it's in a lot of, let me see what the numbers are. Are there a lot of people on Houston this game and on Jacksonville? game by more than seven but i'm not sure i feel great about this being one of our plays but um and it's in a lot of let me see what the numbers are a lot of people on houston this game they're on jacksonville houston huh yeah no surprise yeah it's the pros joe's game yeah 70 30 jacksonville and bets go back to houston again i mean we've done well on them so far this year gosh i feel like we haven't done well then at all i feel like i'm getting

burned out of betting the texans um yeah that's why i'm i kind of feel like i would be on jacksonville also and that scares me so i this i i i would like to lay off of this one i'm also like good with just not betting a texans game that's fine one week that's fine i'm fine with that yeah an unusual punishment yeah um i've watched a lot of like Davis mills, fourth quarter down 15 points. I know. I know. It's not fun.

It's bad. Um, all right, let's talk lions Patriots. Uh, one of the highest scoring offenses going against maybe Mac Jones. We think, uh,

the Patriots are laying three, which makes me think that they do assume that mac jones is playing this is not moved in the contest this is also three so well the lions are scoring 35 points but also allowing 35 points right um and the patriots defense this season has been good right uh their defense is um better you know we saw what they did against the Packers. They've gotten – they got smoked by Buffalo, right? That was their one bad game this year. They haven't played Buffalo yet.

Who was the – they allowed – oh, Ravens. The Ravens scored 36 against them, right? Yeah, I would take New England minus three here if I was taking a wager, but I don't know about the quarterback right now. If it's Mac Jones, I probably would be fine with it, but if it's Bailey Zappi, the answer is probably no. Are we sure, though, with Mac Jones? A limited Mac Jones, I guess the way that New England wins

is they just completely shut off Detroit's offense. Yes. But Detroit can't stop a nosebleed either. The Patriots are going to score in this game. Are they, though? How Patriots are going to score in this game. Are they, though? How exactly are they going to score? The fact the Patriots average 18 and a half points a game. I mean, that's terrible.

They made Geno Smith look like a Pat Mahomes this past week than the Lions did. Yeah, but to be honest, the seahawks have like i mean metcalf lockett and penny weirdly is like a pretty pretty strong little nucleus there yeah um i think i actually think the injury report is more important for detroit like i actually don't think swift is a big deal but if if saint brown isn't there then like you know that belichick knows how to defend jared goff and you know that belichick also knows how to shut down like josh reynolds maybe dj shark is this so is this a maybe i on the on the if the lions have a bunch of injuries again and mac jones yeah so let's say lions injury report remains the same and mac jones plays do you feel good with the patriots

like what are you yes i guess so i mean this is like another huge pros bet game uh this one let me go back to our action network thing here uh it's about 50 50 bets the lions are actually a little bit a little bit more but 83 of the money on the patriots it's also opened at six and a half which i you know you could attribute some of this the quarterback stuff but i don't love it but i you know i if saint brown and swift are out that's uh that's really gonna be tough i'm with you all right let's talk about my stupid team that will come on arrows do we have to do talk about them at all no we don't uh this this is uh you're getting one and a half now for the titans which is strange because i feel like everyone's betting the titans in the contest it's two and a half

huh interesting that's a little reverse line because everybody's been on the titans all week and let's move down so are we on are we on the football team this weekend no no i don't think we can do that i mean if you were to make the case it's like whence playing for his job it's not a great case rabel's better as a dog than as a certainly as a road favorite especially out of division you're buying super low on the commanders i'm not selling myself i'm i doubt i'm selling you i mean it's a pros versus joes right classic pros versus joes game basically right i mean all the pros everyone's all the same side everyone tight everyone's betting the titans oh really everyone's just abandoning ship on washington who like if i had any if i had any

stones jeff i'd say like you of course take them as like these two teams aren't that far apart but like this is that time of the year where derrick henry tends to heat up like i know i know i know we were doing last weekend we were. We were right about that. Yeah. I think this is a layoff. All right. Let's lay off of it then. Running out of games here.

Next up. I know we are running out of games. Saints-Seahawks. Last one o'clock game. All right. The Saints are laying five and a half. Here's the thing. Are we just getting suckered here?

I know. This is the problem right is like everyone's gonna be in seattle this weekend and if the saints run back with alvin camara i think practice today right like he's gonna play probably he's done anything this year but if dalton is starting the other thing about it is is se Seattle going to continue to do this on offense? Is this really what they're going to be on offense this year? Or they go on the road in New Orleans and they face a tough New Orleans defense and just shuts them down and this whole thing about this revamped Geno Smith offense

just ends right there, right? Like, how serious can we take Seattle's offense? Their defense is 31st in the UA. Their offense is third, but New Orleans defense is ninth. Like, is this just the end of the line for Seattle? Are we going to keep riding Seattle until it falls off? And is this the weekend it does or doesn't matter? It's like, yeah, that's right.

It's like, are we one week too late? And that's kind of how I feel like in the falcons situation with taking the bucks it's like everyone you usually don't want to buy a bad team that's coming off a 50 point week like but i think on the new orleans side i mean new orleans new orleans stinks and new orleans is one and three and to be honest like they should be oh and four that first game they won against the falcons and it was like a it was a mayhem of a comeback they got smacked by the bucks they lost to the panthers like pretty convincingly and then last week against the vikings like they i guess they had a chance but

the vikings are the vikings like i think the saints stink now they're also coming off the london game with no buy, which means this is my favorite play of the week, by the way, is the Seahawks in the first half. I feel like they're probably going to come out hot. Pete Carroll is unbelievable coming west to east. Why don't we take Seattle then? If they're going to be on the first half, they're going to cover the five and a half for the game, probably.

I guess. I'm fine with this. I just feel like it's a trap, but... Seattle plus five and a half? I just feel like I would rather take this than, you know, than a lot of these other games. I just feel like we could look stupid here, but like we're either going against Dalton or a limited Jameis Winston.

Oh, I agree. I don't, I'm not that worried about it. And I'm not sure why, like should New Orleans be favored against anyone by five and a half right now? Like,

no, would they be favored against the Panthers by five and a half? Like they already lost them. I, I, something's off here, but I, I don't know.

I'm fine. I'm, I'm fine with doing the five and a half and just saying like, screw it, man. Like this is, we like this number. Yeah.

It could be a, we feel like we're getting suckered, but we like it. So just stick with it. First half money line for the seahawks yesterday was plus 170 which i really find quite appealing uh coming back from london no team has ever uh been leading in the first half after uh i'm pretty sure that status right right. Let me make sure I'm right. Yeah, I don't know. We could be facing Andy Dalton off of a off of a wonder trip.

Yeah. Okay. Moving on to the four o'clocks. Let's see the Panthers. Oh, geez. Hosting the 49ers. Panthers getting six and a half at home. This is your teaser game right here. You tease the 49ers down to a half a point

because this is a Kyle Shanahan classic. Like they're going to win this game by three. I know. It's a classic. I was talking with a buddy. I was doing another show. I hit on a show and they wanted to do a Moneyline parlay on the show, okay?

And I was on the phone with my buddy and i said i'm telling you right now the team that's going to ruin all the money line parlays this weekend is the carolina panthers yep everyone's gonna put the 49ers in a money line parlay the panthers are gonna beat them and it's just the way it goes. This is what the NFL is, man, right? Like the Niners on a big minor football win, coming across the country, play a Panthers team who's real. I'm here. Baker Mayfield just spouting, spewing nonsense every day. The media, Ben McAdoo, the OC is out here being like,

ah, we haven't played well enough. It's my fault. Like back against the wall, what shanahan's terrible is a favorite right we've talked about this for years now bad as a favorite it just feels like the panthers plus six and a half is a spot we have to be in and i hate it so much i hate it so much i mean this is a perfect perfect teaser game um i want to sort this here so the 49ers well shanahan actually not as bad as a road favorite as i thought since 2017 they're eight and nine um he's actually worse as a home favorite home favorite okay um let's see as a home favorite he's 10 and 15 i have man the panthers like

what's the path the path is the 49ers just don't show up here. Right? Like that's it. Like there's no, there's no way. I mean, I guess like since Trent Williams has been out, like they just haven't been as good. Yeah. But this could be a game where Jimmy G throws the ball nine times, and they win 45-10. Yeah, could be.

I love this in a teaser. I don't know if I could bet on the Panthers anymore. We've been burned so many times on this. They suck. I'm just telling you, this does feel like the Moneyline Parlay Killer this weekend. Is this game right? Yeah, it's this game right here.

It does, or the Survivor Killer. It's just going to be no one's going to watch this game. It has all the makers. It right here. It does. Or the Survivor. It's going to be. Yeah. It's just going to be. No one's going to watch this game. It has all the makers. It's a weird. Weirdly in the afternoon for some reason. Or the second window.

You know, it's the same time as Cowboys Rams. And Eagles Cardinals. Like no one's going to pay any attention to this game. You're going to be like, oh, crap. The Niners are down three with two minutes left. Jimmy McGrath was going to drive him down for a winning touchdown. But I don't want to be part of it. I don't want to put my money on this game.

Yeah, that's pass it. I love it in the tees. All right, Cowboys-Rams, you mentioned them. Let's do them next. So this is interesting. In the contest, oh no, it's five and a half. This was four and a half all week, and then the contest bumped it up to five and a half.

Okay. And then the line changed everywhere. Am I missing something here? I don't understand this line. The Rams are not good right now. And the Cowboys, I know it's Cooper Rush. And trust me, that's not going to last forever. But the Cowboys are really good on defense. Like how the Rams are going to score much in this game i i don't and we shouldn't overreact to the niners game

because the niners own the rams right so like that's a little bit of we shouldn't overreact too much of that yeah but dallas is is fifth on defensive dvoa like the The Rams have not been that good this season. They're 26th in DVOA. They're not that good. Am I missing something here on this line, Matt? Are they accepting Cooper Rush? By the way, this is going to be a home game for the Cowboys in Los Angeles. Yeah, that's true.

I don't get it, quite honestly. That makes sense to me. Aaron Donald is going to play against either Jason Peters or Zach Martin at guard for the Cowboys. The Cowboys have the unit to slow them down on the offensive line. The Rams' line has not been good. Cooper cut my get-off, but he got off last week.

They scored nine points, right? I don't get this at all. And I see some sharp people that I like to follow. They're like, okay, well, and they're on the Rams. I don't get it, man. Yeah. What are we missing here? That's funny.

I mean, I really liked the Rams at four and a half. Five and a half, it's not really a big difference. a half five and a half it's not really a big difference the basically the case being cooper rush like the cowboys let's let's just remember the cowboys came out and laid an egg against the bucks then they beat the bangles in that super weird game where they actually almost blew it at the ends then they beat the giants and then last week carson wentz gave that game away to to uh dallas and they went big they haven't really done anything yet this season and it's just like cooper rush is not going to be forno against the spread and straight up like he's not going to be or five i guess um or four i guess four no it's a starter um so it just feels like a little bit of a regression and then the rams like you know you mentioned yeah

they match up well on the inside of the offensive line but like put jaylen ramsey on cd lamb and like what are the cowboys doing on offense in this game what's the plan like zeke pollard like i i don't know i it's it's a strange number if it was lower i would be pretty interested in the rams um just because like also are they going two and three? Like, I don't think so. But Stafford has been so shaky leading the league in interceptions. It's like, I don't feel like we can really trust either of these teams. But I guess if you just want to make the case that Dallas can just cover the five and a half, you know, I would listen.

I mean, your point about this, the Cooper Rush thing, like at some point being over is absolutely true. And it could be this weekend. But I just think the Rams are very good. Like I just, that's my problem with the number is it's home field advantage should not be included in this number, right? I mean, it's going to be a Cowboys home game. So five and a half is always a weird number.

I'm okay with just like passing on this game. We don't have a lot of games, but I'm okay with passing on it for now. And we can go revise. You haven't really had a strong wager yet on any of these games, right? Except Cleveland, really? I mean, so. Yeah, Seattle.

Yeah. So we have two, right? Those are the two we have. We have three. We have Cleveland, Miami, and Seattle, even though the Miami number's kind of stinky. But those are three we have so far. We have a couple games left and we'll we'll pivot back yeah okay a few minutes and see okay um all right the last four o'clock game is eagles at cardinals um the

cardinals are five and a half point home dogs um god man it's like the it's like what are they trying to get you to take here i guess the cardinals right i guess i mean i don't know what to do here i mean i geez i guess the question becomes like what does arizona do to keep this game close it's actually an action network interesting so there's less bet there's less tickets on the eagles and more money on philly like there's actually some like reverse line movement for philly here which is wild wow let's open it two and everyone is just hammering the eagles it's down to five i mean i mean i guess that the answer is like eagles just kind of like laying egg in arizona right like things are going so well and but i don't know man i feel like they're on the way they play is very hard to have bad games yeah i mean the cardinals are like

the ultimate backdoor team because they could be down by 30 and then they just say like all right kyler go go be crazy and the eagles are one of those teams that just melt down in the second half. But the Cardinals' defense is terrible. And I could see the Eagles getting up by a lot, and then we just hold on for dear life for a half. Eagles' first half, I think, is probably the way to go then. Yeah. Another great teaser game here, by the way.

Oh, yeah. Great teaser game. This is a tough week, dude. I don't really know if I feel super comfortable laying it with the Eagles because, like, it just feels, again, like they're the only undefeated team in the league. Like, it doesn't feel like they're just going to keep it up. There's another game that we can lay some money on that we might feel – lay some money on a favorite we might feel better doing at the end of this.

Is that the next game? Is that the Sunday night game? Well, it might be the Sunday and the Monday game. Okay, the next game is that the sunday night game well it might be the sunday and the money okay well let's talk about this i haven't pulled my chief's card yet this season but it might be okay good all right well let's do the sunday night game first the ravens are laying three to the bangles are we gonna do it again are we gonna stab us right in the freaking neck again these ravens the ravens are not gonna stab us in the neck again because they are absolutely going to win this game i I think that I think I feel incredibly good about taking the Ravens minus three here. There are a couple of things about the Ravens that just aren't possible for much longer.

First of all, I mentioned already they they've been ahead for all but 14 seconds of the season and they're two and two. They've lost their last five home games this is every year I come on this podcast I'm like the Ravens are amazing at home they just always take care of business at home you know that that trend is not going to stay like they are going they're not going to lose a 6 straight home game with the division they also like

remember this last year the Bengals took it to the Ravens twice like they 100% want this game they need this game actually to keep pace up in the AFC and the Ravens awful loss five and oh against spread in their last five against

against spread loss. I just think the Bengals like the Bengals have not proven that they are the same Bengals as last year, even though they've kind of turned it back around a little bit. So I love the Ravens here.

I think it's a I think you're getting them in a bargain. If if this if if they had converted that if they had kicked a field goal last week instead of going for the touchdown on that fourth down and whatever they they win the game. You know, the game changes as a result of that. Maybe they would have stopped at the goal line. Let's just say the Ravens win one of those games. What's what is this line six? Like it's it's it's a flip like

the Dolphins thing like say that they don't have that once in a two seasons five seasons come back yeah it's a six-point line so I I just feel like the Ravens absolutely deserve more respect than this and I'm very happy to take them to three done fine with me I'm I I entered the season one of faith Cincinnati as much as possible and great opportunity to do it here, obviously. And look last year, the Bengals towards the Ravens, that defense is gone.

Like that whole, that man, it's cover zero, full out blitz. We're going to let Jamar chase beat us is gone now, right? They have the new defensive coordinator and it'll be more focused on rushing with their front four,

keeping everything in front of them. The Bengals cannot run the ball right now. They're very one dimensional offense. So finally me, dude, again, we'll. The Bengals cannot run the ball right now. They're a very one-dimensional offense. So fine with me, dude. Again, we'll go back to well here with the Ravens. Hopefully they don't screw us, but I'm fine with it, dude. Totally fine with it. We're going to start that game.

It's going to kick off, and you're going to hear the Ravens crowd going nuts, doing that White Stripes song. And you're going to be like, Lamar Jackson just had a loss that everyone's writing him off. Now he's in prime time. We're going to be like, Lamar Jackson just had a loss that everyone's writing him off. Now he's in prime time. We're going to feel great about this pick. We're going to feel incredible about it, especially when they're up early

because they start hot all the time. All right, Baltimore's in. Let's talk about your Kansas City chefs. They are laying seven to the rival Las Vegas Raiders who they traditionally own. Are we going to lay the seven? Well, we have four games we like right now, buddy. So what other game would you like to bet on?

Well, let's hear the case. The Chiefs are fucking good. The Raiders stink. And remember, two years ago, the Raiders won that game in Kansas City, acting like they won the Super Bowl, okay? Yep. Later in that season, the Chiefs won a game by four points. Last year, they won 48 to nine and 41 to 14.

And I can argue the Raiders have gotten worse since then. Their offensive line is worse. Their secondary is worse. So far this season, they lost to the chargers by five, did not cover that game, you know, in that contest.

Cause they were a, let's see. I'm gonna make sure. Yeah, they were, the chargers were favored they were a, let's see, I'm gonna make sure I pull it up. Yeah, they were, the Chargers were favored by three and a half or three, whatever. Raiders did not cover that game. Then they lost to Arizona by six, as Arizona was a five and a half point underdog in that game. Tennessee was grabbing two points, and the Raiders lost that game.

The first game they covered was last weekend against a really bad Broncos team. People might think the Chiefs are going to overlook the Raiders after that big Tampa Bay win. No, no, no. They don't overlook the Raiders. Their arrival is an extra day to prepare. We might not have football now. In Arrowhead, I just think this game is going to get very ugly, very cool.

The Chiefs' is is not bad like they're gonna be okay against this raiders team what's the case for the raiders they score i mean the chiefs i guess don't score like they go back to not scoring again i i i don't know what the case is for the raiders yeah let's not forget i mean the raiders finally won last week and by the way you beat the broncos congratulations um the way that they won that game josh jacobs went off for the first time in what felt like forever especially if you've ever owned him in fantasy chief's defense only letting up 3.3 yards per carry this year like their run defense has been super stout with chris jones back i like this i'm fine laying this and this is

another great entry into the parlor into the teaser i feel like this is like you can have like a six leg teaser this week um but i feel like i'm down with all of it i mean you mentioned the extra day arrest um my homes he's uh four one and one against the spread on monday night football five and one that the only time he lost was that crazy game against uh jared where jared goff threw up like 70 points in mexico city on that weird field um derrick carr two and six against the spread against the chiefs one and seven straight up i feel like this rivalry a lot of people give credit to the raiders for a game that happened like seven years ago where they got that like eight you might have been on the team where they had like those eight uh those eight goal line plays in a row or whatever that was like seven years i was not

no we beat the raiders twice the year i was there i know what game we're talking about it's like thursday night football it was weird uh the homes last 17 primetime games 15 and 2 4,800 yards 38 touchdowns nine interceptions two 400 yard games, six, 300 yard games. Yeah. I mean, this is another one is sort of like the Ravens where in a week where you don't feel that confident. It's like, do you want to just lay? I mean, the chiefs at home and primetime laying only seven against a team who absolutely sucks.

It's a pretty good case. Like the only thing I'd rather be, I'd rather be there than on somebody'd rather be i'd rather be there than on some of the other i'd rather be there than carolina plus six and a half absolutely dude like a hundred percent the only thing that's a little concerning the chiefs the chiefs finally i mean what a gauntlet they have here they go at bucks which they won handily they have the raiders at home this is like maybe the game where they can take their foot off the gas a little. I doubt they will. Then they go Bills at 49ers next couple weeks. Then it's Titans and

Jags, which aren't so bad, but they get a buy. I'll tell you why I'll tell you why I think they don't because that Colts loss is really bad. Yeah, they didn't show up in that game. They show up against Tampa Bay and they kick their butts. And if this was like the Jets coming to town, I'd be like, no, no, no.

But this is the Raiders, right? It's Raiders week. Chiefs hate the Raiders more than anyone else. Maybe the Broncos. There's a lot of rivalry with the Broncos too. But like hate the Raiders. It's Raiders week, man. Like, so they're going to be up for this game.

There's not going to be any letdown for Kansas City. And I just think that the Raiders are not very good. Offensive line, secondary, things that are important to winning this game and keeping this game closed, they're not very good at. I completely agree. And by the way, the Chiefs, I've always worried that when you have a two-touchdown lead that they can't ice a game because they can't really run the ball. They are.

They're seven now, though. They are. And it's only seven, right? And they're running the ball much better. You're exactly they're running the ball much better this season yeah in those situations do you think the raiders eventually turn this around or do you think they end up in a disaster like putting this week aside they'll be one and i thought they would be the fourth team in this division so actually josh mcdaniel was probably on like fire watch if he lost last weekend right yeah if the owner wasn't so cheap i feel like that would have been possible um oh

yeah hey one more thing for so we've got our five right do we i think we do do we need to go back over cleveland cleveland plus two and a half miami minus three and a half again that hook is terrible seattle plus five and a half baltimore minus three casey minus seven not bad i'm fine with it feels good the only one i feel shaky about is miami i think the rest of them i feel fine about two it's too popular in the three and a half sticks yeah uh but i feel good otherwise you got any pack 12 yeah so i like um it's funny the picks i've given out on twitter so far i'm eight and eleven i started oh and two and oh and two two and two three and three two and one So we're kind of getting more wins.

My radio picks, I give out, we do against the spread every week. I'm like 32-14, some crazy number like that. I don't know, 32-15. So I like Oregon State minus 7.5. I like the under in USC, Washington State under 66. And I like Oregon to score over 42 a half points on the road at arizona if you're asking me now the other games i like like what i'm gonna pick on the radio i'm probably gonna pick washington state minus 13 i'm gonna pick arizona state to cover at home and probably

the toughest game for me is this utah ucla game. I will probably take the Bruins plus 3.5. Don't feel great about it. That's my Pac-12 points. I also think Ohio State might win this weekend by 8,000 points to Michigan State. It's like 27.5. Just go ahead and do that.

TCU covers against Kansas, which is the game day game, but they're just better, I think, than Kansas right now. So a couple other things I like. I think Notre Dame covers against BYU. I would say take North Carolina against Miami plus four. So a couple other things I like in college football. There you go.

You got my college football picks as well today. All right, we got our five games. I had to go back last week and listen to this at the end because we were debating what our fifth game was on Sunday morning. So Cleveland puts two and a half. Miami minus three and a half. Seattle puts five and a half. Baltimore minus three.

Casey minus seven. Those are our five picks. Matt, talk to you next week. We'll have Gabe back on for our recap show. Please rate, review, subscribe. Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Have a great weekend of wager, everyone. Talk to you guys next week.